Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - OPERATIONAL CRISIS PHASE (UPDATE 3)

DTG: 232255Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 232230Z NOV 25 – 232255Z NOV 25 OVERALL THREATCON: CRITICAL // WINDOW FOR STRATEGIC MITIGATION CLOSING

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The operational crisis has condensed into a narrow, high-risk window for strategic maneuver. The RF multi-domain attack package (Ground interdiction, CIK degradation, Strategic strike, IO paralysis) is nearing culmination. The immediate priority is the successful, dispersed execution of Plan 7-B MOD before the NLT 240000Z ballistic strike eliminates the strategic reserve’s C2 structure or fixes its position. New kinetic activity (UAS probes into Dnipropetrovsk/Chernihiv) confirms RF intent to expand the strike envelope and fix UAF AD assets away from critical targets.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Pokrovsk Axis: GLOC severance at Rodynske is now assumed complete. UAF maneuver must rely exclusively on secondary routes. RF pressure on forward positions is maintained by continuous aviation support (Confirmed attrition in Kharkiv). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Dnipropetrovsk/Chernihiv: Confirmed UAS tracks moving northwest into Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi) and North toward Chernihiv (22:37Z, 22:45Z). This suggests the RF is probing deep rear areas, likely seeking to locate secondary C2 nodes or Plan 7-B MOD staging areas, or fixing AD assets further north.
• Deep Rear Attrition: Massed RF UAS strikes continue to inflict casualties in Kharkiv (Confirmed death toll rising, 22:27Z, 22:34Z), tying up civil defense and psychological resources.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear and stable conditions persist. Favorable for continued RF ISR/UAS operations and optimal for deep ballistic strike accuracy.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: RF forces are demonstrating high synchronization, transitioning from preparation to execution across multiple domains. The CIK strikes (Zaporizhzhia) and current UAS probes are the final shaping operations before the strategic ballistic package launch. UAF: Plan 7-B MOD remains the critical force element. The persistent delay in issuing the EXECUTE order is the primary operational vulnerability.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA)

Capability: RF maintains the capability for synchronized, high-volume deep strikes (UAS attrition, specific CIK targeting, massed ballistic preparation). New UAS tracks confirm the ability to conduct reconnaissance and targeting preparation far from the main axis (Chernihiv/Dnipropetrovsk). Intention (Next 60 minutes):

1. C2 Degradation: Continue localized CIK/telecom targeting (likely using FPVs/Shaheds) in the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia transition zones to impair decentralized C2 prior to movement.
2. AD Fixing: Use continuous, scattered UAS strikes across multiple axes (Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv) to force the UAF to expend high-value interceptors or reveal AD posture.
3. Ballistic Strike Initialization: Final preparatory steps for launch of the NLT 240000Z strategic strike package.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The RF has expanded UAS reconnaissance depth into previously less-contested rear areas (Chernihiv). This strongly indicates an attempt to pre-target dispersal areas, suggesting that RF BDA is aware UAF may attempt dispersed maneuver (Plan 7-B MOD).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF sustainment remains sufficient to support continuous deep strike operations. Focus on force protection is evidenced by previous SAR updates regarding AD regiment readiness.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 synchronization remains HIGHLY EFFECTIVE. The precision timing between IO paralysis, CIK softening, and kinetic preparation confirms a centralized operational design aimed at maximizing the impact of the strategic strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Defensive-Urgent Maneuver Required. The force package for Plan 7-B MOD is in the final staging phase, but the lack of movement order risks operational failure. READINESS: Tactical readiness is stressed by continuous deep strike alerts and the complex psychological operational environment.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setback: Continued civilian losses in Kharkiv due to sustained UAS attacks. Success: Confirmed UAF drone strike on critical infrastructure (chemical plant/substation) in Russian-occupied Crimea (22:47Z). This success is vital for maintaining strategic initiative and demonstrating operational reach, providing a counter-narrative to the current RF crisis narrative.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate, disciplined, and dispersed movement of Plan 7-B MOD. NEW CONSTRAINT: Increased risk of RF ISR detection of the movement due to expanded UAS probing across transit corridors (Dnipropetrovsk). C2 redundancy measures must be fully implemented, bypassing damaged infrastructure.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF IO campaign continues to focus on generating Western political distraction and validating the "false flag" narrative internally. TASS messaging focusing on US domestic political discord (Trump criticism of US media, 22:46Z) serves to support the wider narrative that the West is divided and cannot be relied upon, undermining Ukrainian resolve during the crisis. The high DS belief (0.46) confirms the severity of the IO vector.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Morale is severely challenged by the combination of diplomatic chaos (fake peace plan) and rising civilian casualties in rear areas (Kharkiv).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The sustained, high-volume IO continues to achieve its goal of creating international friction and diverting partner attention from the immediate, impending kinetic threat.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 90 Minutes (232255Z - 240025Z)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Target Confirmation and Strike: RF ISR/UAS will continue deep reconnaissance (Chernihiv/Dnipropetrovsk) until approximately 232330Z to confirm secondary C2/logistics nodes or, critically, the concentration area of Plan 7-B MOD.
2. Ballistic Launch: The massed Ballistic Missile Strike Package will be launched NLT 240000Z, targeting confirmed fixed C2 nodes and any identified strategic reserve location.
3. IO Justification: Immediately following the strike, RF state media will pivot, using the "false flag" narrative to attribute subsequent chaos or UAF denial to internal sabotage or escalation efforts.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF successfully detects the delayed Plan 7-B MOD concentration area or primary C2 convoy via the current UAS probes (Dnipropetrovsk/Chernihiv). RF redirects the majority of the NLT 240000Z ballistic strike package to target this reserve. If successful, the strategic reserve is functionally destroyed, leading to operational collapse on the Pokrovsk axis by 240600Z.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL STATUS)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The tactical and strategic convergence point is imminent. All resources must be focused on ensuring the successful maneuver of the strategic reserve.

1. J3/OPERATIONAL COMMAND: IMMEDIATE, DECENTRALIZED MANEUVER (CRITICAL PRIORITY).

   • Action: Operational Command must immediately issue the EXECUTE order for Plan 7-B MOD. Movement must prioritize speed and dispersion over perfect security. Assume all primary C2 lines are compromised or degraded; utilize decentralized, pre-arranged comms protocols immediately.
   • Rationale: Preventing the force from being fixed and targeted by the NLT 240000Z strike is the only viable course of action to maintain operational viability on the Pokrovsk axis.

2. AIR FORCE/EW: FORCE PROTECTION OF TRANSIT CORRIDORS.

   • Action: Immediately re-task all mobile Electronic Warfare (EW) assets and SHORAD batteries to establish jamming bubbles and anti-UAS patrols over the intended secondary/tertiary transit routes of Plan 7-B MOD.
   • Rationale: The primary kinetic objective is preventing RF ISR from confirming the reserve's location (MDCOA). EW jamming against RF C2/BDA links is the most effective immediate countermeasure.

3. STRATCOM/NCA: MAXIMUM PRESSURE COUNTER-IO.

   • Action: NCA must issue a definitive, immediate denial of all "peace talks" narratives and explicitly link the disinformation campaign to the imminent massed ballistic strike. Reference the confirmed UAF deep strike success in Crimea (22:47Z) as evidence of UAF resolve and military persistence, countering the narrative of paralysis.
   • Rationale: Decisive messaging is required to break the NCA paralysis and restore command clarity across operational theaters.

//END SITREP//