Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - IMMEDIATE CRITICAL UPDATE

DTG: 232025Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 231953Z NOV 25 – 232025Z NOV 25 PREPARED FOR: J2/J3 Operations Center, UAF General Staff OVERALL THREATCON: CRITICAL // KINETIC CULMINATION PHASE ACTIVE

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The operational crisis persists on the Pokrovsk Axis, validated by the Enemy's (RF) successful synchronization of kinetic interdiction against the critical northern logistics corridor (Kharkiv). Confirmed fatalities and severe damage in Kharkiv due to sustained UAS activity validate the threat to Plan 7-B MOD movement. Strategically, the significant breakthrough in diplomatic talks (Geneva) has mitigated the risk of NCA paralysis, shifting the command focus entirely back to immediate operational execution of Plan 7-B MOD before the predicted RF strategic ballistic strike NLT 240000Z.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Main Effort (Pokrovsk Axis): Status quo remains critical. RF pressure on Rodynske and the M-30 GLOC is expected to culminate NLT 232200Z (Unchanged from previous SITREP).
• Deep Battle (Kharkiv Corridor): The Shevchenkivskyi district, a critical logistical support area near Kharkiv City, is confirmed impacted by RF UAS strikes (20:03Z, 20:07Z). Fire and confirmed casualties (1 KIA, multiple injured) degrade morale and infrastructure essential for staging northern reserves (20:21Z, 19:55Z). This corridor is confirmed as the immediate High-Value Target (HVT) for RF deep interdiction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Front: No new updates on the Stepnohirsk flanking maneuver (Previous CR outstanding).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No significant changes. Conditions remain optimal for RF deep strike assets (UAS/RPV/Ballistic).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Forces are achieving kinetic synchronization, successfully executing UAS strikes targeting urban/logistic infrastructure to fix UAF resources and preempt Plan 7-B MOD deployment. UAF: C2 clarity is improving post-Geneva. Tactical C-UAS defense execution in Kharkiv is active but overwhelmed (confirmed strike success). The immediate priority is resource re-allocation for mobile convoy protection.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capability: The RF has demonstrated the capability to conduct persistent, effective UAS saturation attacks against urban logistics hubs, inflicting casualties and infrastructure damage directly on the route required for Plan 7-B MOD movement.

Intention (Immediate - Next 3 Hours):

1. Route Denial: Continue and intensify UAS strikes against rail and road junctions in the Kharkiv/Balakliia corridor to delay or disrupt the launch of Plan 7-B MOD reserves. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. GLOC Severance: Maintain high-tempo ground assault pressure to force physical severance of the M-30 GLOC near Rodynske NLT 232200Z. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

No significant tactical ground changes identified. The adaptation is in the speed and precision of the deep strike response to Plan 7-B MOD preparations, confirming effective RF ISR/Targeting integration in the northern sector.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

UAF logistics nodes in the Kharkiv area are confirmed degraded by the latest strikes. This increases the operational risk margin for the Plan 7-B MOD transit phase.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains HIGHLY effective, displaying rapid targeting cycle execution following ISR on UAF reserve staging.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: The authorization process for Plan 7-B MOD should now be unimpeded by high-level diplomatic uncertainty, allowing the NCA and J3 to focus solely on tactical execution and risk mitigation.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes (Strategic/Diplomatic): Confirmed productive, substantive dialogue in Geneva, including signals that the US leadership is "hearing us" (20:21Z, 20:22Z). This is a decisive de-escalation of the strategic political threat. Successes (Tactical): Confirmed high-skill FPV strike success against an RF target inside a damaged industrial facility (20:10Z).

Setbacks (Tactical/Kinetic): Confirmed fatality and multiple casualties resulting from RF UAS strike in Kharkiv (20:21Z, 19:55Z).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Execution and protection of Plan 7-B MOD immediately. The window for safe movement is closing rapidly due to RF deep interdiction effectiveness. CONSTRAINT: Real-time damage assessment and secondary route mapping for Kharkiv logistics corridors are required to mitigate the confirmed UAS impact.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO has pivoted rapidly to undermine the diplomatic success:

1. Accusation of Leaks: Pro-RF channels are amplifying reports that the US is accusing Ukraine of leaking "negative details" of the peace plan (19:56Z). This is a direct attempt to sow mistrust between Washington and Kyiv delegations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Observed Attempt)
2. Strategic Denial: RF sources are actively dismissing the idea of a European counter-plan, focusing solely on the Trump team's position (20:05Z).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The successful diplomatic progress is a significant morale boost for the NCA and populace. However, this is immediately offset at the local level by confirmed civilian fatalities and urban destruction in Kharkiv (20:21Z).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Status: SECURED. The negotiations in Geneva are continuing (20:04Z) with confirmation of progress and strong engagement from US Senator Rubio (20:00Z). The previous diplomatic paralysis threat is contained.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 6 Hours (232025Z - 240225Z)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Accelerated Interdiction: RF will execute concentrated UAS/RPV strikes against known or suspected logistics/staging areas along the Kharkiv/Balakliia route between 20:30Z and 23:00Z to ensure the reserves are disorganized and delayed when the strategic ballistic strike hits.
2. GLOC Severance: RF ground forces will achieve local tactical control over a section of the M-30 GLOC near Rodynske NLT 232200Z.
3. Strategic Strike Execution: The planned massed ballistic strike NLT 240000Z remains the culminating kinetic event, aimed at decapitating C2 capability required to coordinate Plan 7-B MOD.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF interdiction successfully delays the launch of Plan 7-B MOD until after 232200Z, allowing the RF to consolidate gains near Rodynske. The strategic ballistic strike NLT 240000Z then successfully targets the delayed or newly established C2 element for the Plan 7-B MOD reserve movement, leading to operational failure on the Pokrovsk axis.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL STATUS)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. J3/Operational Command: LAUNCH PLAN 7-B MOD IMMEDIATELY (NLT 232030Z).

   • Action: Operational Command must accept the risk of transit. The failure to launch is now assessed as a higher risk than the confirmed enemy kinetic activity on the route. Execute the Plan 7-B MOD with integrated Mobile C-UAS Escort Force on the Kharkiv/Balakliia corridor. Utilize bypass routes identified in CRITICAL (1) BDA.
   • Rationale: Diplomatic constraints are lifted. Delay ensures MDCOA success.

2. Air Force/JFS: HARDEN CRITICAL ROUTE PROTECTION.

   • Action: Re-task existing SHORAD/EW assets providing general Kharkiv air defense to direct convoy protection for Plan 7-B MOD assets on the move. Maintain priority allocation of Patriot/SAMP-T to Anti-Ballistic Mode for NLT 240000Z.
   • Rationale: The threat is kinetic interdiction, not C2 decapitation, on the route. Mobile C-UAS is the correct resource allocation to mitigate the confirmed UAS threat.

3. STRATCOM/NCA: COUNTER RF IO ON ALLIED FRICTION.

   • Action: STRATCOM must immediately issue a synchronized statement with US counterparts (Rubio/Delegation) confirming full unity and progress, explicitly denying the narrative of Ukrainian leaks or friction over an alternative European plan.
   • Rationale: This preempts the RF IO effort to leverage diplomatic success into allied distrust (19:56Z, 20:01Z).

//END SITREP//