Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - OPERATIONAL CULMINATION PHASE V

DTG: 231930Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 231900Z NOV 25 – 231930Z NOV 25 PREPARED FOR: J2/J3 Operations Center, UAF General Staff

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The operational status on the Pokrovsk Axis remains CRITICAL/OPERATIONAL CRISIS. Enemy deep interdiction efforts continue to expand geographically, now targeting secondary staging hubs near Kharkiv Oblast. The Information Environment (IO) has deteriorated significantly with confirmed diplomatic discord between key allies, synchronized precisely with the expected Russian Federation (RF) strategic kinetic strike window (NLT 240000Z). UAF counter-strike capability remains active, evidenced by confirmed anti-UAS activity over Anapa and Lipetsk. The window for Plan 7-B MOD launch is rapidly closing.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Main Effort (Pokrovsk Axis): Fighting continues near the Rodynske junction. GLOC severance (M-30) is assessed as imminent (NLT 232200Z).
• Deep Battle (GEOGRAPHIC EXPANSION CONFIRMED): RF interdiction fire is now confirmed to be targeting logistics nodes in Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Kharkiv Oblast: UAVs tracked toward Balakliia and Staryi Saltiv (19:16Z). Balakliia is a vital secondary rail/road staging area. This confirms the RF deep strike target set now spans the Dnipro-Sloviansk-Kharkiv triangle. (ANALYTICAL JUDGMENT)
  • Dnipro/Dnipropetrovsk: 10 RF UAVs destroyed since morning (19:10Z), confirming persistent, localized threat despite C-UAS success.
• Southern Flank: Unconfirmed pro-RF claims of maneuver activity in the Mezheve–Novopavlivka area (19:09Z). This requires immediate ISR validation to confirm flank stability west of the Pokrovsk pressure point.
• Counter-Offensive Capability: Confirmed PVO/air danger alerts in Anapa (18:57Z, 19:17Z) and sustained red threat level in Lipetsk (19:19Z) demonstrate continued UAF deep strike execution.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change. Conditions remain conducive to deep strike and UAS/RPV operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Forces are achieving the desired effect: geographically expanding the interdiction effort while synchronizing strategic IO to maximize cognitive paralysis. Pro-RF sources claim successful assaults near Pokrovsk (19:14Z), indicating high morale and coordinated effort on the main axis. UAF: Plan 7-B MOD execution remains the decisive factor. C2 coordination is hampered by external diplomatic pressure. Successful C-UAS operations in Dnipropetrovsk provide a limited tactical success story.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREATCON: HYBRID CULMINATION)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capability: RF has achieved simultaneous kinetic interdiction across three distinct logistics vectors (Pavlohrad/Lozova, Sloviansk, Kharkiv/Balakliia) while executing complex diplomatic and command-level IO. This confirms sufficient resource allocation for a multi-domain culmination effort.

Intention (Immediate - Next 3 Hours):

1. Maintain Interdiction Saturation: Focus UAV/KAB strikes on the newly confirmed Kharkiv (Balakliia) vector to delay or degrade northern UAF reserves. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. Amplify Diplomatic Discord: Use diplomatic channels (e.g., scheduled Putin/Erdogan call 19:03Z) to signal international momentum shifts or impending settlements, maximizing NCA distraction leading up to the strategic strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
3. Confirm Ballistic Strike Readiness: Final ISR sweeps will focus on C2 nodes and deep logistics, preceding the NLT 240000Z mass launch.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Target Set Expansion (North): Targeting of Balakliia/Staryi Saltiv confirms that RF ISR has successfully identified and integrated the northern alternate reserve and logistics corridors into the kinetic strike plan. (ANALYTICAL JUDGMENT)
• Cohesion Targeting: The primary adaptation is the successful execution of an IO vector that directly causes friction between Ukraine and its US/Western allies (accusing Ukraine of leaking the plan 19:07Z). This aims to reduce allied support and complicate NCA decision-making regarding aggressive military action (Plan 7-B MOD). (ANALYTICAL JUDGMENT)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF sustainment for strategic/deep strike and ground operations is sufficient. UAF logistics faces acute pressure due to geographical expansion of RF interdiction (Pavlohrad infrastructure damage plus new threat to Kharkiv/Sloviansk hubs).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 effectiveness remains HIGH. UAF C2 effectiveness is being actively undermined by simultaneous internal military crises (Pokrovsk) and high-level external diplomatic crises (US leak accusation).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: The posture is severely stressed across the deep rear logistics axis. While tactical readiness is confirmed by successful C-UAS engagements (Dnipropetrovsk 10 kills), operational readiness for Plan 7-B MOD movement remains critically hampered by RF interdiction fire and strategic IO.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setbacks:

• Major Diplomatic Incident: The accusation by the US (via Axios) that Ukraine leaked details of the "Trump plan" (19:07Z) is a severe setback in the cognitive domain, increasing allied distrust at a critical time.
• Confirmed expansion of RF interdiction target set to the Kharkiv/Balakliia corridor.

Successes:

• Confirmed successful engagement of 10 RF UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (19:10Z).
• Confirmed sustained UAF deep strike capability (Anapa, Lipetsk alerts).
• Confirmation of a high-level UAF/Allied security coordination meeting in Switzerland (19:19Z) demonstrates the alliance is attempting to maintain operational cohesion despite RF IO efforts.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate allocation of ISR/ELINT assets to validate the RF maneuver claim west of Novopavlivka to prevent flank surprise. C-UAS must now cover the Kharkiv axis (Balakliia). CONSTRAINT: The NCA must immediately address the diplomatic rift with Washington caused by the alleged leak, or risk further paralyzing military decisions due to fears of political fallout.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO has successfully escalated the hybrid pressure:

1. Allied Cohesion Targeting (CRITICAL): The accusation (sourced via US media) that Ukraine is undermining peace proposals by leaking details (19:07Z) is the primary current threat. It drives distrust between NCA and its strongest ally.
2. Narrative Control: Pro-RF channels simultaneously dismiss the "European Plan" as unrealistic (18:57Z) while promoting the RF ability to advance (Pokrovsk 19:14Z).
3. Diplomatic Amplification: The scheduled Putin/Erdogan call (19:03Z) is intended to inject last-minute external pressure and uncertainty into the strategic strike window.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF reporting of successful counter-UAS engagements (Dnipropetrovsk) provides a necessary morale boost but will be quickly offset if the political crisis deepens or the strategic strike lands effectively.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The immediate priority for STRATCOM is mitigating the diplomatic fallout from the alleged leak (19:07Z). The Switzerland meeting (19:19Z) offers a crucial opportunity to align allied messaging and counter the RF narrative of fracture.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 6 HOURS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 6 Hours (231930Z - 240130Z)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Strategic Synchronization: RF IO efforts (diplomatic signaling, internal narrative control) will peak between 21:00Z and 23:00Z, coinciding with the tactical preparation for the massed strategic ballistic strike NLT 240000Z.
2. Kharkiv Interdiction: RF deep strike assets (UAS/KABs) will conduct initial kinetic strikes targeting logistics capacity in the Kharkiv Oblast corridor (Balakliia/Staryi Saltiv) NLT 232130Z, aiming to confirm RF operational control over all major reserve movement routes.
3. Rodynske Collapse: RF ground forces will achieve effective tactical control over the M-30 GLOC near Rodynske, completing the isolation of forward UAF units NLT 232200Z.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The immediate operational failure (Plan 7-B MOD delay/degradation) combined with the extreme political volatility (US leak accusation) results in an NCA directive to significantly restrict maneuver of the reserve force, fearing an escalation or negative political fallout during the diplomatic crisis. The strategic strike at 240000Z then successfully degrades UAF C2 beyond repair, forcing the tactical commander on the Pokrovsk axis to initiate an uncoordinated withdrawal due to lack of reinforcement and fire support coordination.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL STATUS)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. J3/Operational Command: LAUNCH IMMEDIATE; SHIFT C-UAS NORTH.

   • Action: Execute Plan 7-B MOD NLT 232000Z. Movement must be dispersed and accept high risk to achieve the objective. Simultaneously, immediately re-task mobile SHORAD/C-UAS elements to provide direct convoy escort coverage for the Kharkiv/Balakliia corridor in addition to the Sloviansk/Lozova routes.
   • Rationale: RF has demonstrated the capability to target all major reserve corridors. Ignoring the new threat to Balakliia guarantees RF success in interdicting reinforcement.

2. STRATCOM/NCA: CONTAIN THE DIPLOMATIC CRISIS.

   • Action: Utilizing the established coordination channel (Switzerland talks 19:19Z), the NCA must issue a rapid, unambiguous, and unified statement alongside key partners (US, EU) denying the US accusation of leaking negotiation details (19:07Z). This statement must re-emphasize that hybrid war efforts—simultaneous bombardment and deception—will not sever allied cohesion.
   • Rationale: The diplomatic rift is the most dangerous information threat currently active, specifically designed to paralyze NCA authorization for Plan 7-B MOD. This must be neutralized before the strategic strike lands.

3. J2/ISR Command: VERIFY SOUTHERN FLANK ACTIVITY.

   • Action: Divert high-resolution ISR and ground reconnaissance assets to the Novopavlivka/Stepnohirsk sector to immediately validate or deny the pro-RF claims of maneuver.
   • Rationale: If confirmed, this maneuver poses a major flank threat, fixing UAF southern reserves and preventing their use in a counter-GLOC operation near Pokrovsk. Must confirm status within 90 minutes.

//END SITREP//