Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - OPERATIONAL CULMINATION PHASE IV

DTG: 231900Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 231830Z NOV 25 – 231900Z NOV 25 PREPARED FOR: J2/J3 Operations Center, UAF General Staff

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The operational status on the Pokrovsk Axis remains CRITICAL/OPERATIONAL CRISIS. Enemy interdiction efforts against UAF logistics and reinforcement corridors have intensified and expanded. Confirmation of kinetic strikes (artillery/missile) on Sloviansk (18:39Z) indicates RF targeting is expanding beyond the Pavlohrad/Lozova corridor to include secondary staging and transit hubs necessary for the execution of Plan 7-B MOD. The diplomatic IO campaign targeting the National Command Authority (NCA) remains highly synchronized and effective.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Main Effort (Pokrovsk Axis): Fighting continues at the Rodynske junction. GLOC severance (M-30) is imminent.
• Deep Battle (CRITICAL EXPANSION): The enemy has confirmed intent to target the entire eastern deep rear logistics axis.
  • Pavlohrad Area: Widespread power and water shortages are confirmed in Pavlohrad, Shakhtarske, and Yuriivka (18:35Z), compounding the impact of the initial kinetic strike and crippling damage control/re-supply efforts. (FACT)
  • Sloviansk: Confirmed strike resulting in 5 casualties (18:39Z). Sloviansk is a critical road/rail hub for any reserves moving north from Dnipro or Lozova to reinforce Pokrovsk. Its inclusion in the target list confirms RF anticipation of UAF dispersal routes. (ANALYTICAL JUDGMENT)
  • Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia: UAV groups are tracking toward Dnipro from the East (18:49Z). KABs reported on Zaporizhzhia Oblast (18:48Z).
• Northern Sector: KABs reported on Sumy Oblast (18:24Z).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change. Conditions remain generally favorable for continued deep UAS/RPV and precision strike operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Forces are executing coordinated deep-strike interdiction (UAVs, KABs, possibly artillery/ballistic) against all probable Plan 7-B MOD staging and transit nodes (Pavlohrad, Lozova vector, Sloviansk). UAF: Plan 7-B MOD execution is delayed and highly compromised. C2 redundancy activation remains paramount, with persistent RF IO targeting high-level leadership accounts (e.g., GUR denial 18:45Z).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREATCON: INTERDICTION ESCALATION)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capability: RF has demonstrated increased capability for dynamic, multi-target interdiction. The strike on Sloviansk, simultaneous with pressure on Pavlohrad, confirms resources are sufficient to cover multiple parallel UAF logistics/C2 nodes.

Intention (Immediate - Next 60 Minutes):

1. Isolate & Degrade Reserves: RF RPV/UAS assets will maintain pressure on the Dnipro approach and the Lozova corridor. The targeting of Sloviansk is intended to force Plan 7-B MOD assets to utilize less-protected routes or delay launch until key hubs are secured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. Maximize Cognitive Paralysis: Continue pushing the conflicting diplomatic narratives (US plan adjustments via Rubio, TASS reporting EU G8 plan) to maximize NCA confusion during the critical movement window. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
3. Pre-Strike Confirmation: Final ISR sweeps before the NLT 240000Z strategic strike will likely focus on damaged infrastructure (Pavlohrad) and any confirmed movement along the Lozova/Sloviansk vectors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Target Set Expansion: The inclusion of Sloviansk in the deep strike target package is a direct adaptive response, anticipating UAF commanders utilizing this hub as a northern staging alternative after the confirmed compromises at Pavlohrad. (ANALYTICAL JUDGMENT)
• High-Value IO Targeting: The targeting of official Ukrainian intelligence accounts (GUR denial of Budanov account compromise 18:45Z) confirms that RF IO is focused on undermining trust in high-level military C2, not just public morale.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF sustainment remains sufficient for deep strike operations. UAF logistics are critically degraded in the deep rear due to confirmed infrastructural damage (power/water).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 effectiveness remains HIGH. The speed and synchronized complexity of kinetic operations (UAS/KABs/Strikes across Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Sloviansk) with the high-level diplomatic IO push confirms robust, centralized command execution.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: The UAF posture is now COMPROMISED across the main axis of reinforcement. Readiness for Plan 7-B MOD is severely degraded due to active kinetic threats to primary (Pavlohrad) and secondary (Sloviansk) staging hubs.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setbacks:

• Confirmed infrastructure failure (power/water) in Pavlohrad/Yuriivka area.
• Strike on Sloviansk directly threatens the viability of Plan 7-B MOD transit security.

Successes:

• UAF GUR successfully identified and rapidly denied the RF attempt to compromise a critical intelligence command account. (Tactical IO victory).
• UAF deep strikes are confirmed to be hitting RF territory (Air danger declared in Lipetsk 18:36Z), demonstrating counter-reach capabilities, although this does not mitigate the immediate crisis at Pokrovsk.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: EW/SHORAD/C-UAS assets are now required to cover a wider, dispersed corridor encompassing the Lozova-Slovyansk-Dnipro triangle. Priority must be given to providing mobile escort for the moving columns, accepting increased vulnerability for static assets. CONSTRAINT: The political/diplomatic crisis is actively competing with the military crisis for NCA attention.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO has successfully maintained cognitive pressure by focusing on:

1. Diplomatic Confusion: Confirmed, concurrent messaging regarding two divergent peace plans (US adjusting plan 18:49Z; EU offering G8 return for ceasefire 18:41Z) creates the image of allied fracture and imminent imposed settlement, discouraging aggressive UAF military action.
2. Decapitation IO: The targeted fake compromise of the GUR Head's social media account (18:45Z denial) seeks to erode confidence in the security and integrity of military intelligence at the highest level.
3. Amplified Attrition: RF channels continue to push the narrative that the Ukrainian defense is collapsing and that future prospects are bleak.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Infrastructure failure in Pavlohrad (power/water) will acutely impact civilian and military personnel morale in the critical logistics area, feeding the broader narrative of military decline.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The "European Plan" reported by TASS (RF return to G8 post-conflict) is a highly salient narrative designed to divide Western unity and incentivize immediate UAF compromise, reinforcing the deception campaign that necessitates a swift, unified UAF STRATCOM response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 6 HOURS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 6 Hours (231900Z - 240100Z)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Operational Denial: RF kinetic action will prioritize interdiction of identified alternate staging/transit hubs, confirming that Sloviansk, in addition to Lozova, will be subject to concentrated attack (UAS/KABs/Indirect Fire) NLT 232100Z.
2. GLOC Severance: RF ground forces will complete effective physical interdiction of the M-30 GLOC at Rodynske, utilizing heavy fire control NLT 232200Z.
3. Strategic Strike Execution: The massed strategic ballistic strike (Iskander/KN-23) will launch between 232200Z and 240000Z, targeting C2 nodes and deep logistics recovery infrastructure, likely including re-strikes on compromised Pavlohrad and potential alternate CP locations.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) Operational inertia due to NCA decision paralysis (induced by simultaneous diplomatic and C2 IO threats) results in Plan 7-B MOD being delayed past the point of viable tactical movement. When the reserves attempt to move, they are systematically degraded or destroyed by RF deep strike (UAS/KABs) along the Lozova/Sloviansk corridors. The subsequent strategic ballistic strike eliminates all remaining operational command capacity, leading to an organized withdrawal becoming an uncontrolled rout on the Pokrovsk Axis.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL STATUS)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. J3/Operational Command: IMMEDIATE LAUNCH; PRIORITIZE SLAVIANSK-DNIPRO AXIS PROTECTION.

   • Action: Immediately issue the execute order for Plan 7-B MOD. Reserves must begin movement NLT 231915Z. The threat has expanded; movement must utilize maximum dispersal and explicitly prioritize the deployment of mobile C-UAS/EW assets to physically secure the lead and flank elements traveling through the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk and Lozova corridors.
   • Rationale: Sloviansk is now a confirmed enemy target, validating RF intent to interdict all primary and secondary relief routes. Speed and specialized protection (C-UAS) are the only mitigating factors against operational failure.

2. Air Force/JFS Command: EXPLICIT C-UAS RE-ALLOCATION TO MOVEMENT.

   • Action: Issue a clear directive to all SHORAD/EW batteries: Highest priority for all mobile assets (e.g., Gepard/Avenger/local C-UAS teams) is convoy escort duty for Plan 7-B MOD. Accept that certain fixed points may temporarily lose dedicated low-level air cover to ensure the reserve force reaches its objective. Continue strict conservation of ABM assets for the NLT 240000Z strategic wave.
   • Rationale: The mobile reserve is the decisive point. Losing this movement to RPV harassment before the strategic strike guarantees operational defeat.

3. STRATCOM/NCA: AGGRESSIVE, UNIFIED COUNTER-IO EXPOSING THE HYBRID THREAT.

   • Action: Issue a simultaneous, coordinated response to the diplomatic leaks (US/Rubio vs. EU/G8 plan) and the GUR IO attack. The message must link the kinetic and cognitive domains: "The enemy has intensified its bombardment of our rear areas—targeting Pavlohrad and Sloviansk—at the precise moment they attempt to paralyze our government with fraudulent and conflicting 'peace' proposals. These are acts of hybrid war. Ukraine stands firm, unified, and will only negotiate after successful defense."
   • Rationale: Neutralizes cognitive paralysis by exposing the RF hybrid synchronization and refocuses NCA and public attention on the active military crisis.

//END SITREP//