Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - OPERATIONAL CULMINATION PHASE III

DTG: 231830Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 231800Z NOV 25 – 231830Z NOV 25 PREPARED FOR: J2/J3 Operations Center, UAF General Staff

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The operational status on the Pokrovsk Axis remains CRITICAL/OPERATIONAL CRISIS. The enemy threat has progressed from confirmed UAS interdiction to persistent, synchronized follow-up UAS/RPV harassment aimed at preventing UAF damage control efforts. The logistics corridor is now confirmed to be actively contested along multiple axes (Pavlohrad-Dnipro and Lozova vectors). The window for safe execution of Plan 7-B MOD is closing rapidly, increasing the risk of operational paralysis ahead of the NLT 240000Z strategic ballistic strike.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Main Effort (Pokrovsk Axis): Fighting continues at the Rodynske junction. RF information sources (Colonelcassad, Smeared Caprice) are aggressively amplifying claims of a major breakthrough and operational success in the Oktyabrske/Shakhovo sector (18:10Z, 18:22Z), aiming to further paralyze UAF decision-making regarding the western flank. (ANALYTICAL JUDGMENT)
• Deep Battle (CRITICAL UPDATE): The Pavlohrad rail and logistics hub remains compromised following the confirmed kinetic strike and subsequent power loss (TASS, 17:53Z). New UAF Air Force warnings confirm follow-on drone groups tracking toward Dnipro and specifically toward Lozova (18:21Z), indicating RF intent to interdict alternate logistics corridors south and west of Kharkiv/Dnipropetrovsk.
• Northern Sector: No material change to the Kharkiv power disruption.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Conditions remain generally favorable for persistent drone and mechanized operations. Forecasts indicate potential for rain/sleet next week, which may briefly degrade sensor performance but not prohibit kinetic activity.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Forces are executing damage amplification via continuous, distributed RPV/UAS strikes focused on key logistics choke points (Pavlohrad vicinity) and potential alternate MSRs (Lozova vector). Ground forces are maintaining pressure on Rodynske, supported by high-confidence IO regarding flank collapse (Shakhovo). UAF: Forward defense is highly degraded. The primary control measure—the execution of Plan 7-B MOD—is now complicated by active threats along primary and secondary transit routes.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREATCON: IMMEDIATE AND PERSISTENT INTERDICTION)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capability: RF demonstrated enhanced capability for synchronized multi-domain attack: employing continuous UAS interdiction in the deep rear while maximizing cognitive domain chaos using sophisticated diplomatic IO. Retains the hard-timeline capability for strategic ballistic strike NLT 240000Z.

Intention (Immediate - Next 3 Hours):

1. Corridor Interdiction: Use incoming RPV waves to specifically target Plan 7-B MOD staging, transit assembly, and alternate MSRs, particularly the Lozova-Dnipro connection, to isolate the Pokrovsk Axis from any immediate reinforcement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. Psychological Preparation: Utilize amplified IO claims of operational breakthroughs (Shakhovo) and political confusion (dual peace plans) to maximize pressure on the UAF NCA during the critical decision-making window (NLT 231900Z). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
3. Final Targeting: Finalize pre-strike reconnaissance of C2 and logistics recovery nodes damaged in the initial Pavlohrad strike, identifying targets for the NLT 240000Z strategic wave. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Multi-Layered IO: RF successfully fractured the diplomatic narrative by ensuring the concurrent public release of two conflicting peace proposals (US/Trump progress vs. EU/Counter-proposal). This compounds the decision paralysis previously anticipated. (ANALYTICAL JUDGMENT)
• Dynamic ISR Retasking: The rapid redirection of UAV assets towards the Lozova vector demonstrates adaptive, real-time targeting aimed at anticipated UAF counter-movements (Plan 7-B MOD alternate routes).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF sustainment remains sufficient. The current focus is entirely on interdicting UAF logistics and C2 resilience.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 effectiveness remains HIGH. The speed and synchronization of the follow-up kinetic action (UAS waves) with the IO fracturing (dual peace plans) indicates robust command synchronization designed to induce UAF command paralysis.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: The UAF posture is CRITICALLY COMPROMISED in the deep rear. Readiness for Plan 7-B MOD is severely degraded and is now a high-risk operation. C2 redundancy activation is urgent, especially given the persistent threat to secondary routes.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setbacks:

• Persistent Threat to MSRs: The confirmed vectoring of RPV groups toward Lozova and Dnipro indicates RF has anticipated and is actively targeting UAF dispersal strategy. (CRITICAL SETBACK)
• Information Disadvantage: NCA focus is diverted by the compounded diplomatic crisis (US vs EU peace proposals).

Successes:

• Elements of the 4th National Guard Brigade (4th BROp) remain tactically effective in the Dobropillya area, providing combat casualty care under fire (17:54Z).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate deployment of mobile C-UAS/EW assets to cover the dispersal and transit routes for Plan 7-B MOD reserves (specifically Lozova/Slovyansk vectors). CONSTRAINT: The primary constraint is time. The limited remaining time before the NLT 240000Z ballistic strike necessitates high-risk movement decisions.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO has maximized cognitive paralysis by simultaneously pushing:

1. Diplomatic Fissure: Reports of US/UA progress on a Trump plan conflicting immediately with the published details of a European counter-proposal (Reuters/ASTRA), forcing the NCA to dedicate critical time to managing allied political disputes.
2. Internal Doubt Amplification: Circulation of alarming statistics on military unauthorized absence (СЗЧ), four times higher than the previous year, targeting domestic morale and feeding the RF narrative of systemic Ukrainian failure.
3. Operational Exaggeration: Aggressive claims of "Critical success" and advances toward Shakhovo, potentially pressuring UAF command to divert limited reserves to chase flank threats rather than execute the main operational plan.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Deep strike kinetic action (Pavlohrad) synchronized with widespread, alarming statistics (СЗЧ) creates an environment of high anxiety and low confidence in the sustainability of the defense, compounding the effects of the diplomatic IO.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The two-track "Peace Plan" narrative risks fracturing the image of unified Western support. UAF STRATCOM must rapidly counter the perception that the US and EU have fundamentally conflicting end-state goals. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 6 HOURS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 6 Hours (231830Z - 240030Z)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. ISR/Strike Persistence: RF will maintain high-intensity UAS/RPV activity targeting the Lozova-Dnipro corridor, focusing on rail infrastructure, C2 nodes, and identified reserve dispersal assembly areas.
2. GLOC Severance: RF ground forces will complete the effective severance of the M-30 GLOC at Rodynske, utilizing heavy fire control and indirect fire NLT 232200Z.
3. Strategic Strike Launch: RF Air Defense Regiments will confirm readiness status for the ballistic launch coverage. Launch initiation highly probable between 232200Z and 240000Z, targeting C2 nodes, likely including the compromised Pavlohrad and potential alternate CPs/Joint Fires locations.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The immediate risk remains the interdiction of Plan 7-B MOD in transit. If the reserves begin movement without adequate C-UAS/EW cover and are successfully degraded by the sustained RPV/UAS attack in the Lozova corridor, the resulting operational failure will be compounded by the NLT 240000Z strategic ballistic strike. This combination ensures the collapse of organized defense on the Pokrovsk Axis.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL REVISION)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. J3/Operational Command: IMMEDIATE DISPERSED RESERVE LAUNCH WITH DEDICATED C-UAS ESCORT.

   • Action: Immediately issue the execution order for Plan 7-B MOD. Reserves must begin movement NLT 231845Z. Explicitly allocate and prioritize mobile C-UAS/EW systems (ideally platoon-level assets) to physically accompany the lead and flank elements of the reserve columns, focusing defense along the Lozova/Dnipro MSR vectors.
   • Rationale: The threat to the reserve is no longer theoretical; it is confirmed kinetic interdiction. Movement without specialized C-UAS protection is likely to fail. Immediate launch accepts high risk, but delay guarantees failure.

2. Air Force/JFS Command: RETHINK AIR DEFENSE PRIORITIZATION.

   • Action: Immediately re-task all available mobile SHORAD (Self-Propelled) assets away from static defense (excluding absolute critical AD sites) and assign them to protect the moving reserve force. Maintain the directive to conserve ABM interceptors solely for the NLT 240000Z strategic ballistic strike. Accept increased risk from current low-value RPV threats over the reserve concentration area to protect the main body movement.
   • Rationale: Preventing the interdiction of Plan 7-B MOD is the single highest operational priority. The strategic strike cannot be prevented entirely, but the operational response (7-B MOD) must survive to maintain force coherence.

3. STRATCOM/NCA: UNIFIED COUNTER-IO ON DIPLOMATIC FRACTURE AND MORALE.

   • Action: Issue a unified and brief statement that denies the legitimacy of the fractured peace negotiations ("US/Trump vs. EU/Counter-proposal"). The statement must immediately link all diplomatic leaks to the enemy's active kinetic strategy: "These coordinated political distractions are enemy deception designed to paralyze our government while Russia actively bombards Pavlohrad and attempts to sever our supply lines. Ukraine will not negotiate under kinetic duress." Simultaneously, address the СЗЧ/morale issue by emphasizing the necessity of discipline and connecting the internal challenges to RF IO targeting.
   • Rationale: This re-establishes narrative control by exposing the hybrid operation (IO timed with kinetic action) and refocuses national attention on the military crisis.

//END SITREP//