Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - CRITICAL THREAT SYNCHRONIZATION EXECUTION PHASE II

DTG: 231630Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 231600Z NOV 25 – 231630Z NOV 25 PREPARED FOR: J2/J3 Operations Center, UAF General Staff

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The enemy is maintaining maximum synchronization tempo across the kinetic, deep strike, and cognitive domains. The operational picture confirms RF intent to capitalize on the UAF reserve deployment delay (Plan 7-B failure) by simultaneously pressing for Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) severance on the Pokrovsk Axis and escalating the strategic Information Operation (IO) campaign with a new vector aimed at undermining the National Command Authority (NCA). While the air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia city lifted (15:24Z), the regional missile threat remains, confirming the pre-strike sequence is ongoing.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Main Effort (Pokrovsk Axis): High-tempo mechanized exploitation continues. RF sources claim Airstrike successes in the tactical area (e.g., Varvarovka, 15:25Z), indicating robust close air support (CAS) of the ground advance toward the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC. The area around Rodynske remains the critical decision point for operational reserve maneuver.
• Deep Rear (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk): The threat remains acute. The Air Defense (AD) posture is reactive, engaging confirmed threats but experiencing intermittent lulls (Zaporizhzhia city alert lifted, 15:24Z), suggesting either short breaks in KAB saturation or tactical reassessment by RF Air Force preceding the planned ballistic strike (NLT 240000Z). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change from previous reporting. Conditions favor RF mechanized maneuver and persistent air/drone operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Forces are operating under synchronized control, maximizing kinetic pressure on the front while using air assets to suppress the deep rear. The 11th Guards Army VVS/PVO claimed activity (15:25Z) confirms that significant air assets are committed to the Pokrovsk pressure campaign. UAF: Defensive lines remain highly committed. The 38th Separate Marine Brigade (OMBr) reported a localized tactical success utilizing FPV drones (15:24Z), demonstrating local tactical initiative despite the overall operational strain. The failure to execute Plan 7-B remains the dominant operational constraint.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREATCON: CRITICAL EXECUTION)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capability: RF is confirming its ability to integrate kinetic pressure with highly sophisticated strategic IO, instantly deploying new narratives that exploit political vulnerabilities. Intention (Immediate - Next 6 Hours):

1. Kinetic GLOC Severance: Achieve functional control over the M-30/T-05-15 supply route through combined mechanized assault, deep fire (CAS/KAB), and Spetsnaz (SpN) interdiction.
2. Cognitive Deception (New Vector): Introduce and amplify the false narrative that a "peace framework is in final stages of agreement" in Geneva (15:27Z).
   • Purpose: This IO aims to demoralize frontline troops by suggesting their efforts are irrelevant, and to force the UAF NCA into a politically disadvantageous public denial of negotiations, thereby undermining trust. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH on intent, MEDIUM on success probability).
3. Ballistic Strike Preparation: Continue KAB attrition and ISR operations in the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro axis, maintaining readiness for the strategic ballistic strike NLT 240000Z.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RF Information Warfare has initiated a highly dangerous Diplomatic Deception vector. This narrative shift moves beyond simply exploiting US political figures (Trump) to actively manufacturing claims of UAF diplomatic failure/capitulation in international forums (Geneva), directly attacking the government's legitimacy during a critical military crisis.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

Confirmed adequate. Continued high-volume KAB usage and maintained high sortie rates (11th Guards Army VVS/PVO) confirm deep ordnance reserves and reliable air support logistics.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective, rapidly synchronizing ground forces, close air support, deep strike systems, and the strategic IO apparatus.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Critical. Forward defenses in the Pokrovsk sector are near the breaking point due to lack of immediate operational reinforcement. Readiness to handle the tactical air threat is confirmed (38th MBRP FPV success), but strategic AD readiness is constrained by KAB attrition expenditures.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

• Confirmed local tactical success by the 38th OMBr, demonstrating effective counter-mobility against RF quad bike patrols using FPV assets.

Setbacks:

• Operational delay of Plan 7-B continues to be the primary operational setback, raising the probability of GLOC severance.
• The immediate need to formulate counter-messaging to the new "Peace Plan" IO vector introduces additional C2 strain on STRATCOM during a kinetic crisis.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Rapid execution of Plan 7-B MOD to stabilize the Pokrovsk front. CONSTRAINT: The enemy’s synchronized application of pressure across the physical and cognitive domains is saturating UAF C2 capacity.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is now employing a layered strategy:

1. External Isolation (Trump): Ukraine is abandoned by its allies.
2. Internal Capitulation (Geneva/Peace Plan): The NCA is selling out Ukraine behind closed doors. This combination is highly effective, designed to induce political and military cognitive paralysis simultaneously.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The new "Peace Plan" narrative, when combined with the severe kinetic pressure and the previous Odesa TCC sabotage, is designed to generate widespread panic and distrust in state institutions. Frontline morale is highly vulnerable to the suggestion that political leaders are negotiating surrender while soldiers fight.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The "Geneva Peace Plan" claim must be immediately and forcefully denied by the UAF NCA, in coordination with US/European diplomatic partners, to pre-empt its use in domestic political discourse in allied nations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 6 Hours (231630Z - 232230Z)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. GLOC Contestation: RF ground forces will achieve functional severance of the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC via concentrated fire and SpN activity near Rodynske.
2. IO Escalation: RF media will saturate channels with the "Peace Plan" narrative, citing high-level sources to force a damaging public reaction from the UAF NCA.
3. KAB Window Closes: KAB saturation attacks targeting CNI/C2 in the deep rear will likely reduce frequency NLT 232200Z as air assets are repositioned, signaling the imminent opening of the ballistic strike window.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF achieves functional severance of the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC, isolating UAF forward forces. Simultaneously, the success of the "Peace Plan" IO vector causes localized insubordination or widespread panic in mobilization centers, degrading UAF capacity to organize secondary defenses. The imminent ballistic missile strike then successfully targets the primary AD coordination center (J-FIRE control), guaranteeing high impact success NLT 240000Z.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. J3/Reserve Command: COMMIT PLAN 7-B MOD IMMEDIATELY.

   • Action: Operational Command must accept the high risk profile and initiate the revised, decentralized deployment of reserves immediately (NLT 231700Z), utilizing real-time ISR to navigate interdiction zones. The priority is time-on-target over optimal security during transit.
   • Rationale: The tactical window for GLOC defense is closing. Further delay guarantees the operational collapse of forward units.

2. Air Force/JFS Command: EXECUTE AD PRIORITIZATION SHIFT.

   • Action: Fully implement the shift to Anti-Ballistic Mode for all high-value AD assets (Patriot/SAMP-T) protecting strategic C2 and CNI targets. Accept the calculated increase in damage from residual KAB/UAV strikes until the ballistic strike window has passed (post-240000Z).
   • Rationale: Preventing the strategic paralysis from a successful ballistic strike is the single highest kinetic priority.

3. STRATCOM/J2: NEUTRALIZE DIPLOMATIC DECEPTION (PEACE PLAN).

   • Action: Immediately issue an unequivocal, high-profile public denial of the "finalized peace plan" claims. Frame the RF IO effort as a hostile attempt to manipulate domestic sentiment during a major military operation. Coordinate the message flow to counter both the Trump isolation and Geneva capitulation narratives simultaneously.
   • Rationale: The new IO vector directly attacks the national will to fight and must be neutralized before it generates internal friction or impacts international support decisions.

4. Security Services/J3: ESTABLISH HIGH-VIGILANCE GLOC CONVOY ESCORTS.

   • Action: Due to the assessed high probability of SpN interdiction, all reserve columns operating under Plan 7-B MOD must be preceded and flanked by dedicated counter-Spetsnaz reconnaissance and FPV/drone hunter-killer teams (e.g., assets from 38th OMBr doctrine).
   • Rationale: Mitigate the extreme risk of catastrophic loss during the necessary high-speed penetration maneuver along contested GLOCs.

//END SITREP//