Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - CRITICAL THREAT SYNCHRONIZATION EXECUTION

DTG: 231600Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 231530Z NOV 25 – 231600Z NOV 25 PREPARED FOR: J2/J3 Operations Center, UAF General Staff

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The enemy has initiated the anticipated synchronization phase, characterized by high-intensity kinetic pressure on the Pokrovsk Axis simultaneous with pre-strategic strike operations and an immediate strategic-level Information Operation (IO) surge. The operational window for preemptive reserve deployment (Plan 7-B) has been decisively missed. RF Information Warfare channels are now utilizing statements from former US President Trump to maximize cognitive fragmentation across internal and external audiences.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Main Effort (Pokrovsk Axis / Krasnoarmeysk Direction): RF mechanized exploitation continues. RF sources (Rybar) are claiming a "Critical Success" involving the encirclement of the Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad urban cluster. While this is assessed as a high-confidence IO exaggeration, it confirms the tempo and operational intent to achieve encirclement/GLOC severance. RF 27th Guards Motorised Rifle Division (Tsentr Group) is confirmed active via artillery targeting reports in this sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH on intent, MEDIUM on claimed success).
• Deep Rear (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk): The threat axis is active. Multiple, sustained launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (КАБ/KAB) by RF tactical aviation are confirmed targeting Zaporizhzhia and heading toward the Dnipro operational zone. This saturation attack is assessed as a preliminary action designed to suppress AD/ISR prior to the anticipated NLT 240000Z ballistic strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change. Conditions continue to favor RF mechanized maneuver and deep strike/UAV/KAB operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Forces are actively executing the coordinated kinetic and cognitive MLCOA. The high volume of KAB launches confirms allocation of air assets to soften the strategic rear targets. Ground units (40th/155th OMBR supported by 27th MRD) are pressing to maximize the tactical advantage created by the UAF reserve delay. UAF: Defensive lines are under maximum strain. AD assets are actively engaging KAB threats (some successful intercepts reported, e.g., 15:16:52), confirming the tactical pressure on deep rear defenses. The non-execution of Plan 7-B requires immediate assessment of alternative operational reserve commitment protocols.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREATCON: CRITICAL EXECUTION)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capability: RF is demonstrating synchronized multi-domain capability (Kinetic/Ground/Air-delivered Precision Munitions/IO) designed to overwhelm UAF C2 and operational capacity. The ability to instantly leverage high-level foreign political statements (Trump) into strategic IO is confirmed.

Intention (Immediate - Confirmed Execution):

1. GLOC Severance: Achieve functional or physical denial of the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC within the next 3-6 hours, capitalizing on the reserve delay and claimed tactical successes (Rybar).
2. Pre-Strike Softening: Saturate CNI/C2 targets in the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk axis with KAB to prepare for the main ballistic missile strike NLT 240000Z.
3. IO Paralysis: Maximize the impact of high-profile Western political friction (Trump's statement) to accelerate domestic political instability and demoralize forward units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RF doctrine has confirmed its extreme agility in the cognitive domain. The immediate and comprehensive amplification of Trump's extensive statement (15:20Z) less than 30 minutes after publication demonstrates pre-approved targeting procedures for high-impact foreign political statements. On the ground, the use of KAB saturation as a precursor to a ballistic strike is a confirmed tactic aimed at AD attrition/distraction.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

Logistics sustainment remains adequate for ongoing ground exploitation. The KAB launches indicate the RF Air Force maintains a high inventory of guided bombs, supporting the persistent suppression of UAF rear areas.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective and highly centralized, successfully synchronizing kinetic attacks across multiple axes with strategic IO efforts.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Operationally degraded. The failure to commit Plan 7-B forces by the specified time places forward units in the Pokrovsk sector at extremely high risk of shallow encirclement (MDCOA). AD batteries are actively engaged, confirming high readiness but also high expenditure rates due to the KAB volume.

READINESS: Frontline units report critically depleted tactical reserves. AD readiness is high but faces immediate attrition threat from KAB attacks.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

• Confirmed tactical AD intercept(s) of KAB package targeting Zaporizhzhia (15:16:52).
• Confirmed successful engagement and destruction of an RF assault aircraft (Donetsk Oblast, 15:03:01).

Setbacks:

• Operational delay of Plan 7-B has permitted the enemy to escalate claims of operational success/encirclement.
• The immediate need to commit AD assets against high-volume KAB threats may compromise readiness to handle the imminent ballistic missile threat.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate revision of the operational reserve deployment plan, integrating current RF GLOC interdiction data. This may require a higher-risk, multi-echelon penetration strategy rather than simple rapid maneuver.

CONSTRAINT: Time and maneuver space. The GLOC is now assessed as semi-contested, complicating large-scale reserve movement.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO has shifted focus to two primary, high-impact vectors:

1. Strategic Isolation (Trump Amplification): Using the extensive Trump statement (15:20Z) to frame the conflict as preventable, the Ukrainian NCA as ungrateful, and US policy as corrupt/ineffective. This is the Primary IO Threat for the next 24 hours.
2. Military Overmatch/Inevitability: Amplification of battlefield claims (Rybar's "Critical Success" of encirclement) to demoralize defending units and undermine public faith in the military high command.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic morale is receiving mixed signals: intense kinetic threats (KAB alarms, previous Odesa TCC attack) versus continued, routine diplomatic developments (Israel ambassador appointment). The immediate focus must be mitigating the psychological impact of the Trump/Foreign Policy IO surge.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The severity of the Trump statement amplification requires immediate, high-level diplomatic counter-messaging to prevent political instability in key allied nations. The IO campaign is designed to create political friction points in the US and Europe ahead of aid decisions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 6 Hours (231600Z - 232200Z)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. GLOC Interdiction/Severance: RF ground forces, leveraging alleged success near Pokrovsk, will achieve functional severance of the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC via concentrated fire and SpN activity near Rodynske.
2. KAB Sustainment: RF tactical aviation will maintain high sortie rates and KAB launches (targeting Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro CNI) until approximately 232200Z, preceding the ballistic strike window.
3. IO Fusion: RF IO will synchronize the ground success claim (encirclement) with the Trump statement to suggest political abandonment caused the military failure.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF achieves functional severance of the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC, isolating UAF forward forces. Simultaneously, the imminent ballistic missile strike successfully bypasses AD, striking a primary C2 node or a heavily populated CNI site, inducing political and operational paralysis. This successful kinetic-ground-cognitive synchronization enables RF 40th/155th OMBR to force a retreat or surrender of isolated UAF elements, creating a decisive operational advantage.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. J3/Reserve Command: EXECUTE REVISED HIGH-RISK DEPLOYMENT PROTOCOL.

   • Action: Immediately transition from Plan 7-B to Plan 7-B MOD (Modified). Accept necessary risk and commit required forces to a high-speed, decentralized penetration maneuver along alternative axes of advance, prioritizing maintaining the functional GLOC over force protection during the initial transit.
   • Rationale: The tactical window has closed; delaying further guarantees operational collapse (MDCOA). Deployment, even under interdiction fire, is now the lesser of two evils.

2. Air Force/JFS Command: SHIFT AD FOCUS TO STRATEGIC BALLISTIC DEFENSE.

   • Action: Immediately prioritize the defense of designated C2 nodes and CNI against the NLT 240000Z ballistic threat. Accept the residual risk of the ongoing KAB saturation attacks, relying on passive defenses (hardening/redundancy) for KAB protection rather than expending high-value ABM interceptors.
   • Rationale: Preventing the strategic paralysis from a successful ballistic strike is paramount. KAB damage, while severe, is recoverable; a C2 decapitation is not.

3. STRATCOM/J2: CONSTRUCT AND DISTRIBUTE STRATEGIC COUNTER-NARRATIVE (TRUMP).

   • Action: Launch a coordinated, high-volume counter-IO campaign against the Trump statement. Frame the narrative as "Russia weaponizes US political division," emphasizing that UAF sovereignty and the cause of liberty transcends any single political figure or election cycle. Coordinate immediately with Washington/European allies for simultaneous statements of solidarity.
   • Rationale: Neutralize the acute psychological and political friction introduced by the RF IO campaign before it impacts military stability or international aid flow.

4. J2/Security Services: IMMEDIATE RECONNAISSANCE OF GLOC INTERDICTION ZONES.

   • Action: Deploy high-persistence UAS and forward reconnaissance units to determine the precise location and composition of RF forces near the Rodynske junction. This intelligence is mandatory for defining the precise maneuver corridors for 7-B MOD.
   • Rationale: Accurate real-time intelligence is required to mitigate the extreme risk of the revised reserve deployment.

//END SITREP//