Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 231500Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 231430Z NOV 25 – 231500Z NOV 25 PREPARED FOR: J2/J3 Operations Center, UAF General Staff

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The operational environment remains defined by a synchronized Russian Federation (RF) effort to achieve strategic paralysis by coupling the critical penetration threat on the Pokrovsk Axis with confirmed, imminent kinetic strikes against Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) in the deep rear. The key dynamic is the closing window (NLT 231500Z) for UAF General Staff to commit reserves (Plan 7-B) before RF exploitation renders the M-30 GLOC unusable.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Main Effort (Pokrovsk Axis): High-intensity mechanized combat persists west of Mirnohrad. RF intent to sever the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC (Kostiantynivka corridor) remains the operational objective. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Deep Rear (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk): The threat of a high-impact missile strike remains IMMINENT. While the air raid alert was lifted for Zaporizhzhia city at 23/14:40Z, the missile danger for the wider Oblast persists, confirming active RF targeting cycle execution. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Strategic Deep Strike (Counter-Offensive): UAF deep strike operations are confirmed successful against RF critical infrastructure. A fire resulting from a confirmed morning UAV attack at the Shatura TPP (Moscow Oblast) has been officially acknowledged by RF Emergency Services (23/14:32Z). This confirms UAF capability to impose strategic cost on RF deep rear assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change from previous report. Conditions favor sustained long-range ISR and kinetic strike operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Maintaining tempo on Pokrovsk to lock UAF reserves in place. Deep operations focus on cued strategic missile/drone strikes targeting CNI/C2, while C2 is synchronized with an immediate IO exploitation campaign. UAF: Defensive lines are holding but under extreme pressure. UAF diplomatic success (Umerov statement) has provided necessary political cover for high-risk military decisions, but Plan 7-B execution is critically overdue.

---

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREATCON: CRITICAL)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capability: RF maintains the capability for synchronized operational-strategic paralysis (Ground/Kinetic/IO).

Intention (Immediate - Confirmed Shift in IO Focus):

1. Kinetic Strike: Execute high-volume missile/drone strike NLT 240000Z NOV 25 targeting critical energy or C2 nodes in Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk.
2. GLOC Severance: Achieve physical control or rendering unusable of the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC corridor within the next 12 hours.
3. IO Exploitation (HIGH PRIORITY): Immediately leverage widespread amplification of perceived US political friction (Trump's "ingratitude" narrative) across state and aligned media channels to undermine UAF NCA cohesion and pressure international partners (Confirmed by multiple RF/pro-RF media broadcasts 23/14:34Z – 23/14:51Z). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RF has rapidly adapted its IO response to neutralize UAF diplomatic success (Umerov’s positive framing of the US peace plan). The immediate mass dissemination of the "ingratitude" narrative demonstrates C2 agility and strategic synchronization between battlefield exploitation and cognitive operations.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF sustainment remains HIGH for strategic kinetic operations (missile/drone stocks from 2652th GRAU). The successful UAF strike on the Shatura TPP may place pressure on RF internal air defense resources and C2, potentially diverting resources away from the Pokrovsk Axis interdiction campaign. (ANALYTICAL JUDGMENT: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 effectiveness remains HIGH, particularly in the synchronized hybrid domain (ground maneuver, strategic strike preparation, and IO counter-narrative).

---

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Politically stabilized, tactically stretched. The UAF NCA has successfully mitigated the risk of "internal political fracture" via the positive framing of the US security/peace plan (Umerov statement).

READINESS: HIGH tactical readiness (successful SBU Alpha strikes, successful Shatura TPP strike). CRITICAL operational readiness is pending the commitment of reserves (Plan 7-B).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

• Confirmed successful drone strike on the Shatura TPP (Moscow Oblast), demonstrating continued UAF long-range kinetic reach.
• Confirmation from Rustem Umerov that the emerging US policy document (associated with Trump) aligns with the majority of Ukrainian national priorities (23/14:41Z), providing political stability.

Setbacks:

• Confirmed tragic casualty event in Ternopil (23/14:38Z), likely a kinetic strike, highlighting persistent RF threat to civilian areas in the deep rear and the associated stress on domestic morale.
• The operational window for reserve deployment (Plan 7-B) continues to narrow as RF exploitation continues near Mirnohrad.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate AD redistribution to counter the high-probability strategic ballistic strike.

CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: The failure to execute Plan 7-B NLT 231500Z may prevent effective counter-penetration operations and risks RF operational success in severing the M-30 GLOC.

---

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF PRIMARY OBJECTIVE: Undermine UAF-US diplomatic efforts. RF channels are saturated with the "Ukrainian ingratitude" narrative, framed to maximize domestic and international perception of Ukraine's diplomatic isolation and unreliability. This is a direct, immediate counter-IO effort against Umerov's positive announcement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF StratCom is engaged in crisis communications (Zelensky's meetings, official Holodomor remembrance, Umerov's positive statements). However, the immediate RF counter-IO (Trump comments) combined with the kinetic tragedy in Ternopil creates significant stress on domestic resilience.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

President Zelensky’s visible diplomatic engagement (Croatia, Luxembourg) projects continuity and stability. The forthcoming Erdoğan-Putin talks regarding the Black Sea Grain Corridor (23/14:39Z) introduce a potential diplomatic distraction for the RF, but UAF must monitor for any attempt to link this to overall peace negotiations.

---

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 12 Hours (231500Z - 240300Z)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Strategic Denial Strike (Target Lock): RF will launch a strategic missile/drone package (Kinzhals/Iskander prioritized) NLT 240000Z NOV 25 targeting CNI/C2 in Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
2. M-30 Interdiction/Severance: RF mechanized and SpN elements will achieve effective denial or physical control of a key segment of the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC corridor to prevent UAF reserve commitment.
3. Synchronized IO: RF will launch a concerted IO campaign throughout the strike period, linking CNI failures and Pokrovsk setbacks to the narrative of UAF political instability and international abandonment.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 48 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF achieves operational severance of the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC simultaneously with the successful destruction of a major CNI or C2 node in Zaporizhzhia. If Plan 7-B is not executed by 231600Z, the tactical breach will transition into an operational threat of encirclement against forward UAF defending units on the Pokrovsk Axis.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

---

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

---

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. J3/Reserve Command: EXECUTE PLAN 7-B NLT 231530Z.

   • Action: Immediate movement of Plan 7-B forces to secure the Kostiantynivka GLOC and initiate counter-penetration operations against RF mechanized elements exploiting the breach.
   • Rationale: The tactical window (SBU strikes) and the political window (Umerov statement) are converging. Failure to move immediately risks catastrophic operational encirclement (MDCOA).

2. Air Force/JFS Command: MAXIMIZE ANTI-BALLISTIC DEFENSE.

   • Action: Confirm all high-performance AD batteries (Patriot/SAMP-T) are operating in Anti-Ballistic Mode. Disregard single UAV threats in high-priority CNI protection sectors (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk) to preserve interceptor stock for confirmed ballistic threats.
   • Rationale: Counter the imminent strategic missile strike (MLCOA 1). The confirmed persistent missile danger in Zaporizhzhia Oblast requires maximum defensive posture.

3. STRATCOM/J2: LEVERAGE SHATURA STRIKE AND UMERVOV DIPLOMACY.

   • Action: Launch a combined IO effort:
     1. Publicly confirm the successful UAF strike on the Shatura TPP, framing it as a direct and proportionate strategic response to RF aggression against Ukrainian CNI.
     2. Simultaneously amplify Umerov's message to Western media, emphasizing that Ukrainian strategic decision-making (including Plan 7-B execution) is now backed by a strong, unified NCA and positive coordination with the US.
   • Rationale: Maximize strategic leverage gained by the successful deep strike and stabilize the domestic and international perception against RF IO efforts.

//END SITREP//