Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 231430Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 231400Z NOV 25 – 231430Z NOV 25 PREPARED FOR: J2/J3 Operations Center, UAF General Staff

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The operational environment remains defined by the Russian Federation (RF) attempt to achieve strategic paralysis by synchronizing a critical penetration threat on the Pokrovsk Axis with confirmed, imminent kinetic strikes against Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) in the deep rear. Tactical successes by UAF Special Operations Forces (SOF) against RF fire support assets have created a narrow, temporary window for UAF reserve commitment.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Main Effort (Pokrovsk Axis, Donetsk Oblast): High-intensity mechanized combat persists. RF forces (40th/155th OMBR) are confirmed attempting maneuver and exploitation west of Mirnohrad, with the specific intent of severing the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC (Kostiantynivka corridor). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Deep Rear (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk): The critical threat of a high-impact missile strike remains imminent (NLT 240000Z NOV 25). Confirmed intelligence now includes active Shahed/Geran-type UAV movement:
  • UAV observed moving from Kharkiv Oblast toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (23/14:09Z, 23/14:26Z).
  • Reconnaissance UAV confirmed over Southern Mykolaiv Oblast (23/14:17Z).
  • This activity supports the previous finding of RF ISR saturation over Zaporizhzhia, indicating the target set is being refined for the strategic strike package (fueled at 2652th GRAU). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Secondary Axes (Velyka Novosilka/Kupyansk): RF operational reports detail successful logistics operations (use of NRTK "Courier") near Velyka Novosilka and claimed destruction of high-value UAF Command Post Vehicles/M113 near Kupyansk. These actions serve to fix UAF attention and resources. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No significant changes. Conditions favor sustained long-range ISR and kinetic strike operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: Maintaining tempo on Pokrovsk to prevent UAF reserve release. Deep operations focus on cued strategic missile/drone strikes targeting CNI/C2. UAF: Defensive posture is resilient at the tactical level (SOF/Drone units). The strategic posture remains constrained by the delay in executing Plan 7-B. General Staff is actively monitoring and reporting on frontline activity (23/14:02Z).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREATCON: CRITICAL)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capability: RF maintains the capability to execute a synchronized strategic paralysis operation combining ground penetration, strategic denial (missiles), and immediate Information Operations (IO) leverage.

Intention (Immediate - Confirmed Shift):

1. Kinetic Strike: Execute high-volume missile/drone strike NLT 240000Z NOV 25 targeting critical energy or C2 nodes in Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk to induce strategic paralysis.
2. GLOC Severance: Achieve physical control or rendering unusable of a critical segment of the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC corridor within the next 12 hours.
3. IO Exploitation: Immediately leverage public friction, specifically the negative commentary from US political factions (Trump), to undermine UAF NCA cohesion and political support for strategic military action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The RF IO machine demonstrated near-instantaneous synchronization by integrating Donald Trump’s comments regarding "Ukrainian ingratitude" (23/14:24Z, 23/14:26Z) with ongoing diplomatic negotiations (Geneva). This is a focused effort to neutralize the political stabilization achieved by President Zelensky's statement (23/13:59Z) and justify continued RF military escalation.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF sustainment remains HIGH for strategic kinetic operations (missile/drone stocks confirmed). Tactical logistics show adaptation: Confirmed use of specialized Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGV/NRTK "Courier") near Velyka Novosilka for forward resupply, indicating efforts to bypass UAF interdiction fires.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is highly effective in linking the operational (Pokrovsk pressure), strategic (missile preparation), and cognitive domains (IO counter-narratives). This hybrid synchronization is the core threat to UAF operational stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Defensive line holding in the main effort, supported by localized SOF superiority. The political-diplomatic posture has been stabilized by the NCA's successful framing of the Geneva talks, mitigating internal "political fracture" risk.

READINESS: HIGH tactical readiness (SBU Alpha strikes confirmed). LOW strategic decisiveness due to continued hesitation to commit critical reserves (Plan 7-B) into the exploited Pokrovsk sector.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

• Confirmed successful SBU Alpha kinetic strike against high-value RF targets in Donetsk Oblast (23/14:16Z).
• President Zelensky confirmed alignment with critical Ukrainian national interests within the emerging US-led peace framework (23/13:59Z).

Setbacks:

• RF forces are confirmed maneuvering in depth near Mirnohrad, maximizing the time-pressure element on the M-30 GLOC.
• Confirmed widespread pre-strike UAV activity across Central and Southern Oblasts signals a highly imminent kinetic threat.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate AD redistribution to cover high-threat CNI in Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk.

CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: The window for Plan 7-B rapid deployment is rapidly closing due to confirmed RF exploitation efforts on the Pokrovsk Axis.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF Primary Objective: Fracture UAF Political Cohesion and International Support.

1. US Friction Amplification: RF channels immediately amplified statements from Donald Trump regarding alleged Ukrainian "ingratitude" and European lack of commitment. This is specifically designed to undermine the positive message delivered by President Zelensky regarding the Geneva talks and reintroduce doubt about sustained Western aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. Frontline Superiority: RF sources report highly specific claims of destroying UAF command posts and M113s near Kupyansk, aiming to counter UAF operational success narratives (e.g., SBU Alpha strikes).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF StratCom is actively attempting to stabilize internal morale through confirmation of successful military operations and highlighting government support programs ("Winter Support," Zaporizhzhia, 23/14:25Z). The political stabilization regarding the Geneva talks is key, but the rapid counter-narrative from RF (via US political figures) is a severe stressor.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

President Zelensky's statement (23/13:59Z) provided crucial diplomatic stability. The subsequent friction created by external US political commentary is a dynamic threat that J2/STRATCOM must address immediately to protect the NCA's political maneuvering space.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 12 Hours (231430Z - 240230Z)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Strategic Denial Strike (Confirmed Target Lock): RF will launch a high-impact missile/drone package (Kinzhals/Iskander prioritized, using Kinzhal/Iskander ratio confirmed by CRITICAL 1 collection) targeting CNI/C2 in Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
2. M-30 Interdiction/Severance: RF SpN elements and forward mechanized units will reach maximum effective range/physical control over the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC corridor to prevent the deployment of UAF reserves.
3. IO Blitz: RF will launch a concerted IO campaign throughout the strike period, linking CNI failures and Pokrovsk setbacks to the narrative of political instability and lack of international commitment (using the Trump/Geneva narrative).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 48 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF achieves operational severance of the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC simultaneously with the successful destruction of a major CNI or C2 node in Zaporizhzhia. This paralysis, compounded by the inability to rapidly deploy Plan 7-B before 231800Z, results in the tactical breach transitioning into an operational encirclement threat against forward UAF defending units on the Pokrovsk Axis.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. J3/Reserve Command: IMMEDIATE RESERVE EXECUTION.

   • Action: Execute Plan 7-B deployment and counter-penetration operations NLT 231500Z. Utilize the tactical breathing room provided by SBU Alpha strikes to initiate rapid, coordinated action to secure the M-30 corridor.
   • Rationale: The tactical window created by SOF is transient. Further delay risks operational encirclement (MDCOA).

2. Air Force/JFS Command: IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE SHIFT.

   • Action: Reprioritize high-performance AD batteries (Patriot/SAMP-T) to anti-ballistic mode protection of primary CNI/C2 nodes identified in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Do not expend high-value interceptors on single UAVs in these sectors.
   • Rationale: Counter the imminent strategic strike threat confirmed by deep ISR and in-transit UAV reports.

3. STRATCOM/J2: DIPLOMATIC COUNTER-IO FORCE FIELD.

   • Action: Launch an immediate, synchronized IO campaign that validates the political stability achieved by President Zelensky, directly countering the RF amplification of the "ingratitude" narrative. Emphasize that strategic military decisions (Plan 7-B) are based on unified national interests.
   • Rationale: Maintain the necessary internal cohesion required for high-risk strategic military decision-making.

//END SITREP//