Situation Report

OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 231240Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 230001Z NOV 25 – 231240Z NOV 25 PREPARED FOR: J2/J3 Operations Center, UAF General Staff

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SITREP)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

STATUS: CRITICAL / UNCHANGED. The operational focus remains the RF attempt to sever the M-30/T-05-15 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) along the Pokrovsk / Myrnorhad Axis. CONFIRMED RF PENETRATION: Pro-RF reporting (230729Z, 230800Z) of UAF prisoners of war (POWs) captured near Myrnorhad confirms RF forces (40th/155th OMBR) have achieved tactical exploitation and are leveraging localized penetration points. KEY CONSTRAINT: The decision window for effective reserve commitment (Plan 7-B or TFR) remains NLT 231300Z. Confidence: HIGH

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, cool conditions. No significant environmental restrictions. UAF UAS operations remain highly effective. Confidence: HIGH

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF DISPOSITIONS (Group "West"): Fire preparation is sustained. The synchronized kinetic exploitation with the anticipated strategic missile strike (2652th GRAU assets) at 1300Z remains the MLCOA. RF tactical aviation is active, employing guided aerial bombs (KABs) against Kharkiv and Donetsk sectors (230712Z, 230719Z). UAF CONTROL MEASURES: AD assets are postured for ABM defense. Active deep strike operations have been executed against RF critical infrastructure, likely intended to draw resources and disrupt RF C2 focus. Confidence: HIGH

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capability: RF retains the kinetic capability to execute the strategic strike (ballistic/cruise) and synchronized mechanized exploitation. Confirmed Intentions (MDO):

1. Kinetic Strike: Execute missile strike NLT 231330Z targeting C2/Reserve Nodes.
2. Tactical Exploitation: Sever the M-30 GLOC using 40th/155th OMBR to achieve tactical isolation of forward UAF units.
3. IO Paralysis: Leverage tactical successes (POWs) and the anticipated political fallout from US "peace plans" to force concessions.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

UAF COUNTER-ADAPTATION (CRITICAL): UAF deep strike operations successfully targeted the Shatura Thermal Power Plant (GRES) in Moscow Oblast (230659Z, 230705Z). This confirms UAF’s intent to proactively counter RF kinetic pressure with asymmetric strategic strikes on vulnerable rear infrastructure. RF media confirms localized service disruption (heat/power). RF Adaptation: Increased emphasis on rapidly propagandizing localized tactical success (Myrnorhad POWs, 230800Z) to amplify the cognitive effect of the imminent strategic strike. Confidence: HIGH (Intentions, Deep Strike Confirmation)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

Strategic logistics readiness (2652th GRAU) for the anticipated 1300Z strike remains HIGH. Tactical logistics for the 40th/155th OMBR are sufficient for the immediate exploitation phase. UAF deep strikes against energy/logistics hubs (Zugres, Slavyansk-na-Kubani, Shatura GRES) continue to impose strategic logistical friction on RF operations, particularly in non-frontline sectors. Confidence: MEDIUM (Tactical sustainment HIGH, Strategic logistics HIGH, but facing increasing UAF pressure).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective, focused on the synchronized Pokrovsk operation. The simultaneous high-impact UAF counter-strike on Shatura GRES will test RF National Command Authority resilience and force reallocation of domestic AD/security assets. Confidence: MEDIUM

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: CRITICAL. UAF units are executing deep interdiction strikes (Shatura GRES) and maintaining active tactical defense (93rd Brigade reports success near Kostiantynivka). However, the failure to resolve the TFR status by 231245Z is paralyzing the J3 operational decision cycle. READINESS: All available AD assets must be prioritized for the imminent 1300Z strategic strike defense.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

• Strategic Interdiction: Confirmed drone strike and damage to Shatura GRES (Moscow Oblast).
• UAS Dominance: Persistent tactical superiority and high attrition rates maintained by specialized UAS units (Madyar, 63rd Brigade, Wild Hornets) against RF personnel, equipment, and RF UAVs.
• Frontline Defense: Successful defense reported by 93rd Brigade on the critical Kostiantynivka direction.

Setbacks:

• Confirmed localized penetrations and POW capture near Myrnorhad signal severe pressure on forward units.
• The continued UNCONFIRMED STATUS OF TFR is the primary operational risk.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate activation and movement of Plan 7-B reserves. CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: TIME and C2 Synchronization.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO Focus: Maximizing demoralization. Key narratives include:

1. Exaggerated UAF casualty figures (500k claims).
2. Confirmation of tactical breakthroughs and POW captures near Pokrovsk.
3. Exploiting domestic US political friction regarding the "Trump Peace Plan" to sow doubt about long-term international support. UAF Counter-Narrative: Immediately leverage the Shatura GRES strike (230800Z) as proof of operational reach and strategic parity, directly counteracting the frontline pressure narrative. Simultaneously, promote resilience and national unity messaging (Holodomor remembrance, 230658Z). Confidence: HIGH

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The successful deep strike on Moscow Oblast infrastructure will provide a necessary high-impact morale boost in the rear, temporarily offsetting concerns from the Odesa TCC attack and the potential political implications of the "peace plan" discussions. Forward morale remains HIGH based on continuous combat reporting. Confidence: MEDIUM-HIGH

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Diplomatic efforts are confused by competing US (Trump Plan) and European proposals. The RF objective is to exploit this friction to delay critical material aid commitments. UAF StratCom must clearly communicate that any truce proposal is rejected, citing previous RF Duma statements, and demonstrate that UAF is capable of offensive counter-action (Shatura GRES) regardless of political deadlock. Confidence: HIGH

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 1 Hour (231240Z - 231340Z)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Strategic Strike Execution: RF launches strategic missile package (2652th GRAU) targeting C2 nodes, AD systems, and reserve assembly areas NLT 231330Z.
2. GLOC Assault: RF maneuver elements accelerate exploitation movements towards the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC, leveraging air support (KABs) and synchronized with the missile impacts.
3. IO Integration: RF media simultaneously releases pre-packaged content highlighting the effectiveness of the strategic strike and claiming a decisive operational victory, synchronized with POW footage from Myrnorhad.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 24 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) Failure of the J3/Reserve Command to issue the Plan 7-B execution order by 231300Z. RF strike successfully degrades key UAF reserve movement C2 (Kostiantynivka nodes). RF maneuver elements (40th/155th OMBR) achieve physical severance of the M-30 GLOC, isolating UAF forward defenses near Pokrovsk and forcing a strategic withdrawal or localized capitulation under fire superiority.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. J3/Reserve Command: IMMEDIATE RESERVE COMMITMENT.

   • Action: Execute Plan 7-B movement orders immediately, NLT 231245Z. Assume TFR is operationally unavailable until proven otherwise.
   • Rationale: Time is exhausted. Failure to move reserves within the next 15 minutes guarantees the MDCOA.

2. Air Force/AD Command: MAXIMUM ALERT AND C2 NODE PROTECTION.

   • Action: Initiate highest readiness protocols for the 1300Z strategic strike window. Prioritize the protection of the key C2 nodes and the Plan 7-B assembly/movement routes near Kostiantynivka. Conserve high-value interceptors (Patriot/SAMP-T) for ballistic threats.
   • Rationale: Minimize C2 degradation to ensure reserves can be directed post-strike.

3. STRATCOM/NCA: IO COUNTER-STRIKE (Shatura GRES Amplification).

   • Action: Immediately publish and amplify strategic messaging regarding the successful UAF strike on the Shatura GRES in Moscow Oblast. Frame this as strategic retaliation and proof of operational resilience, directly countering RF claims of decisive victory at Pokrovsk.
   • Rationale: Leverage the strategic success to counter the cognitive shockwave intended by the RF strike/IO synchronization.

4. J2/Forward Units (93rd Brigade, UAS Command): GLOC DEFENSE AND INTERDICTION.

   • Action: Focus all available combat and UAS reconnaissance assets (SBS/Madyar) on interdicting RF mechanized and Spetsnaz elements attempting to reach the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC in the next 90 minutes. Aggressively target known artillery positions providing interdiction fire.
   • Rationale: Buy time for Plan 7-B forces to arrive and mitigate the immediate kinetic risk of GLOC severance.

//END SITREP//