Situation Report

OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 231245Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 231230Z NOV 25 – 231245Z NOV 25 PREPARED FOR: J2/J3 Operations Center, UAF General Staff

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

STATUS: CRITICAL. RF forces (40th/155th OMBR) are intensifying pressure along the Pokrovsk / Myrnorhad Axis. The M-30/T-05-15 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) remains the primary RF kinetic objective. Time until hard operational deadline for reserve commitment is less than 15 minutes. Confidence: HIGH

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, cool conditions continue (Fact). No environmental restrictions are reported on either high-altitude ISR or RF strategic launch platforms. Confidence: HIGH

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF DISPOSITIONS (Group "West"): Fire preparation is sustained. Logistics indicators (2652th GRAU) confirm the strategic missile strike package is primed for launch NLT 231300Z. RF MoD (TASS) claims successful destruction of five UAV C2 posts and two EW stations near Kostiantynivka (Fact, RF source), indicating a pre-strike effort to blind UAF tactical response near the critical GLOC. UAF CONTROL MEASURES: AD assets remain aligned for defense following the successful suppression of the overnight UAV swarm (69/98 kills confirmed). The operational decision regarding Plan 7-B activation must be finalized within the next 15 minutes.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capability: RF maintains the capability to execute a synchronized strike complex involving ballistic/cruise missiles, ground maneuver exploitation, and high-impact information operations (IO). Intentions:

1. Systemic Disruption (IMMINENT): Execute strategic missile strike NLT 231300Z to degrade UAF C2 and prevent effective reserve deployment.
2. Tactical Severance (POKROVSK): Exploit post-strike C2 paralysis to physically cut the M-30 GLOC.
3. IO Amplification (COGNITIVE SHOCK): Synchronize kinetic effects with IO (Trump Plan/territorial concession narrative) to maximize political and public demoralization. Confidence: HIGH. The convergence of RF activity confirms these intentions.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RF adaptation focuses on counter-C2/EW in the forward operational area:

• Confirmed RF targeting of UAF UAV/EW command posts near Kostiantynivka (Fact). This directly supports the 40th/155th OMBR maneuver objective by seeking to neutralize UAF tactical surveillance and electronic defense along the GLOC. (Judgment)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF strategic logistics (2652th GRAU) are confirmed as prepared for the fire mission (Fact). Tactical logistics for the assault brigades (40th/155th OMBR) remain high, supported by aggressive information campaigns promoting Chechen/VDV unit cohesion (Fact/Judgment).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains highly effective and ideologically focused. High-profile IO featuring Apti Alaudinov (Akhmat) reinforces the narrative of a "sacred war" (Fact), providing ideological ballast necessary to sustain high-tempo, high-casualty offensive operations.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: CRITICAL. The operational center of gravity is the J3/Reserve Command decision cycle. Force readiness is operationally constrained by the lack of definitive intelligence on Task Force Raven (TFR) location/readiness, forcing reliance on the pre-planned contingency (Plan 7-B).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

• Deep Counter-Strike: UAF drone forces successfully struck the Shaturskaya GRES (Moscow region) and reported active strikes on military targets in Novorossiysk (Fact). This maintains strategic pressure on RF rear logistics and energy grid.
• Air Defense (AD): Successful suppression of a large-scale overnight UAV swarm (69/98 kills confirmed) (Fact).

Setbacks:

• The continued inability to confirm TFR status creates severe operational risk.
• Confirmed RF attempts to degrade UAF tactical C2/EW near the GLOC (Kostiantynivka) endanger the impending counter-penetration operations.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate order issuance for Plan 7-B execution NLT 231300Z. CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: TIME. The operational window for committing forces capable of blocking the M-30 GLOC is closing.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF IO focus remains the maximization of political destabilization, confirmed by pro-RF milbloggers amplifying the "new peace treaty" / "Trump Plan" narrative (Fact). Key Messaging: RF IO frames Ukraine as facing inevitable defeat, attempting to erode public and international confidence in Ukrainian resolve (Fact/Judgment). Internal Security Context: The recent Odesa TCC sabotage combined with a high psychological belief score regarding "Fear and Panic" following the Cherkasy fire incident (D-S: 0.274599) suggests the cognitive domain is highly vulnerable to shock effects from the imminent missile strike.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public sentiment is strained by political rumors and rear-area incidents. UAF StratCom must rapidly counter the RF IO narrative to prevent political paralysis. UAF posts celebrating Dignity and Freedom Day suggest command is attempting to reinforce national resilience (Fact).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

RF IO actively promotes the idea of US/Western diplomatic abandonment via the "concession" narrative. The immediate action post-strike must be a clear political rejection of any concessions to mitigate damage to international support structures.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 1 Hour

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Strategic Strike Execution: RF will launch the strategic missile strike (2652th/260th GRAU assets) targeting C2/assembly areas between 231245Z and 231330Z.
2. GLOC Exploitation: RF maneuver elements (40th/155th OMBR) will commence final kinetic movement to sever the M-30 GLOC, supported by dedicated counter-EW/C2 fires to suppress immediate UAF tactical response.
3. Hybrid Follow-Up: Low-level sabotage or internal security incidents in the deep rear (e.g., TCC attacks) designed to test UAF FPCON readiness, synchronized with the kinetic shockwave.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 24 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

UAF fails to issue the definitive reserve commitment order (TFR confirmation or Plan 7-B activation) by 231300Z. The RF strike successfully degrades forward C2. The M-30 GLOC is severed, forcing the withdrawal or encirclement of defending UAF units. This tactical defeat is immediately leveraged by RF IO to trigger an irreversible political crisis, undermining the NCA's political authority and Western aid continuity.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. J3/Reserve Command: IMMEDIATE RESERVE COMMITMENT DECISION (NLT 231245Z).

   • Action: If TFR operational readiness cannot be definitively confirmed by 231245Z (NOW), the J3 must immediately issue the EXECUTION ORDER for Plan 7-B activation and movement NLT 231300Z.
   • Rationale: Tactical certainty is required for mission success. Failure to commit reserves based on Plan 7-B guarantees the MDCOA.

2. Air Force/AD Command: HIGH-VALUE INTERCEPTOR CONSERVATION.

   • Action: Maintain all available Patriot/SAMP-T batteries in ABM Mode focused on protecting strategic C2 nodes and critical infrastructure along the counter-penetration corridor. Due to successful UAV suppression (69/98 kill rate), strictly conserve remaining high-value interceptors solely for the imminent ballistic/cruise threat from 2652th GRAU.
   • Rationale: Prevent catastrophic C2 failure during the critical 1300Z window.

3. J2/Forward Command: TACTICAL C2 REDUNDANCY AND RELOCATION.

   • Action: Immediately initiate protective dispersal or redundancy measures for all C2/EW nodes near the M-30 GLOC, specifically in the Kostiantynivka area, in response to confirmed RF counter-C2 targeting. Assign dedicated quick-reaction EW/C2 repair teams to forward assembly areas.
   • Rationale: Mitigate the immediate tactical effect of RF counter-EW strikes, ensuring reserve forces retain communications upon commitment.

4. STRATCOM/NCA: IO COUNTER-STRIKE PREP (231300Z EXECUTION).

   • Action: Prepare and stage the coordinated IO counter-campaign. Upon the commitment of Plan 7-B or the commencement of the RF strike, immediately launch messaging that simultaneously confirms Ukrainian resilience (AD success/Deep strikes) and unequivocally refutes the "Trump Plan" concession narrative.
   • Rationale: Counter the RF strategy of achieving strategic goals through cognitive shock and political paralysis.

//END SITREP//