Situation Report

OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 231230Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 231130Z NOV 25 – 231230Z NOV 25 PREPARED FOR: J2/J3 Operations Center, UAF General Staff

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

STATUS: CRITICAL. RF forces (40th/155th OMBR) maintain high-tempo maneuver along the Pokrovsk / Myrnorhad Axis. The physical interdiction of the M-30/T-05-15 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) remains RF's immediate kinetic objective. UAF has less than one hour before the hard operational deadline for reserve commitment. Confidence: HIGH

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear and cool conditions prevail, providing unrestricted ISR and maneuver for RF elements, particularly low-signature platforms (Ulan ATVs/Mangas drones). No weather constraints exist for the imminent strategic missile strike.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF DISPOSITIONS (Group "West"): Fire preparation is reaching its peak. Logistics surge confirmed at the 2652th Artillery Armament Base suggests the strategic missile package is primed for launch NLT 231300Z. UAF CONTROL MEASURES: AD assets remain on high alert following a successful defense against a recent UAV swarm (69/98 UAVs downed). The operational decision regarding Plan 7-B activation must be executed within the next 30 minutes.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capability: RF maintains simultaneous synchronization across kinetic fires, maneuver, and information domains. Intentions:

1. Systemic Disruption: Execute strategic missile strike NLT 231300Z to prevent effective UAF reserve deployment.
2. Tactical Severance: Exploit C2 paralysis post-strike to physically cut the M-30 GLOC.
3. IO Amplification: Maximize political chaos by amplifying the "territorial concession" narrative (Trump Plan IO) synchronized with the kinetic shockwave. Confidence: HIGH.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The core RF tactic remains low-signature, high-speed penetration.

• Deep Strike Response/OPSEC: Lifting of temporary flight restrictions at Zhukovsky Airport (Moscow) following a reported UAF attack on Shaturskaya GRES (Moscow region) indicates RF is managing damage control and normalizing air traffic. This suggests the RF National Command Authority (NCA) is prioritizing operational stability in the strategic rear despite UAF deep strikes.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are fully focused on enabling the strategic fire mission (2652th GRAU readiness) and sustaining the exploitation forces (40th/155th OMBR). Internal morale reports (Akhmat channels) show sustained high commitment, indicating successful sustainment of assault units. Confidence: HIGH.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is highly centralized and effective. The continued high volume of focused, positive internal messaging (Akhmat unit cohesion, celebrating Artillery Day, focusing on AI development) confirms C2 ability to maintain morale and mission focus despite UAF counter-logistics pressure. Confidence: HIGH.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: CRITICAL. UAF must resolve the command dilemma surrounding Task Force Raven (TFR) immediately. Readiness is functionally degraded by the lack of actionable intelligence on TFR status, which is essential for maximizing the effectiveness of the counter-penetration force.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes: UAF AD successfully suppressed a large UAV swarm (69 kills confirmed against 98 targets). This indicates high tactical proficiency in counter-UAS operations, though this capability does not fully mitigate the imminent ballistic/cruise missile threat. Setbacks: The operational clock continues to run down toward the 231300Z deadline with the RF kinetic threat unchanged. The political environment is heavily strained by RF IO amplifying "concession" rumors.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate order issuance for Plan 7-B execution NLT 231300Z. CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: TIME. The ability to conduct effective counter-penetration is expiring rapidly.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF IO strategy is currently executing Phase III: Maximized Political Destabilization synchronized with Phase III of the kinetic operation (Strategic Strike).

• Political Erosion: RF channels are actively promoting the narrative, sourced via alleged reports of "British diplomats," that the "Trump Peace Plan" is the only realistic diplomatic solution, implicitly forcing Ukraine toward territorial concessions. This is intended to preemptively delegitimize the NCA’s resolve immediately preceding the strategic missile strike.
• Internal Focus: Continued high-volume morale content featuring Chechen and Spetsnaz Akhmat units (D-S belief: Psychological Impact: Morale Boost, 0.055700 combined) confirms targeted IO aimed at reinforcing the cohesion of assault groups currently executing the Pokrovsk exploitation.
• Long-Term Fatalism: Messaging from key military bloggers (Podolyaka) emphasizes the "inevitable end of the Kyiv regime" and projects US internal decline, aiming to erode public confidence in long-term Western support. Confidence: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public sentiment is volatile. The combined effect of the Odesa TCC sabotage, RF IO amplifying political rumors, and the anticipated strategic strike is designed to induce political paralysis and popular demoralization.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The RF information campaign directly targets international consensus by injecting the "Trump Plan" narrative, aiming to frame Western aid as futile and Ukraine's position as diplomatically unsustainable. Counter-messaging must be immediate and robust to preserve political will.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 1 Hour

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Strategic Strike Execution: RF will launch the strategic missile strike (2652th/260th GRAU assets) targeting key C2 and assembly areas between 231230Z and 231330Z.
2. M-30 GLOC Interdiction: RF maneuver elements (40th/155th OMBR, supported by Ulan ATVs) will attempt final kinetic severance of the M-30 GLOC, capitalizing on the systemic disruption caused by the strategic strike.
3. IO Peak: RF IO activity, specifically focusing on reports of infrastructure damage and political disarray, will peak immediately post-strike.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 24 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

UAF fails to execute the decision (TFR confirmation or Plan 7-B launch) by 231300Z. The RF strike successfully delays/degrades forward C2. The M-30 GLOC is severed, forcing UAF defenders in the sector to choose between immediate withdrawal under fire or encirclement. This operational failure triggers a political crisis in Kyiv, severely degrading Western confidence and providing irreversible momentum to the RF political/IO campaign (Concession narrative).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. J3/Reserve Command: IMMEDIATE RESERVE COMMITMENT ORDER (231300Z EXECUTION).

   • Action: If TFR operational readiness and location cannot be definitively confirmed by 231245Z, the J3 must issue the EXECUTION ORDER for Plan 7-B activation and movement NLT 231300Z.
   • Rationale: The operational risk of GLOC severance (MDCOA) within the next hour is unacceptable. Failure to commit reserves guarantees tactical defeat in the Pokrovsk sector.

2. Air Force/AD Command: BALLISTIC DEFENSE MAXIMIZATION (IMMEDIATE ACTION).

   • Action: Confirm all available Patriot/SAMP-T batteries are operating in Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Mode and focused on protecting designated strategic C2 nodes along the counter-penetration corridor. Accept the current high UAV attrition rate (69/98 success) but conserve remaining high-value interceptors solely for the ballistic/cruise threat from 2652th GRAU.
   • Rationale: Countering the imminent strategic strike (MLCOA 1) is the highest kinetic priority for the next 60 minutes.

3. J2/Security Services: CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE HARDENING.

   • Action: Immediately initiate protective dispersal or redundancy measures for all C2 nodes in the expected blast radius. Maintain FPCON DELTA for all TCCs and mobilization centers to counter the highly probable follow-on hybrid attack (MLCOA 3).
   • Rationale: Mitigate both kinetic C2 degradation and operational paralysis caused by internal sabotage (Odesa TCC precedent).

4. STRATCOM/NCA: IMMEDIATE IO COUNTER-STRIKE.

   • Action: Launch a coordinated, high-impact counter-campaign immediately upon the commitment of Plan 7-B. The central message must unequivocally refute the "Trump Plan" concession narrative, affirming that Ukraine's territorial integrity is non-negotiable. Use visuals of the recent UAF AD success (69 UAV kills) to project resilience.
   • Rationale: Prevent the RF kinetic strike from achieving strategic success in the cognitive domain.

//END SITREP//