Sitrep 2025-11-22 12:01:32

OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - IPB ANALYSIS

DTG: 221300Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 221200Z NOV 25 – 221300Z NOV 25 ANALYST CONFIDENCE (Overall): HIGH. RF continues high synchronization of kinetic pressure, informational pretext generation, and strategic C2 targeting via diplomatic leverage. The threat of strategic paralysis has escalated dramatically.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Axis	Status	Key Developments (221200Z-221300Z)	Confidence
POKROVSK	CRITICAL/EXPLOITED.	No new kinetic data for this reporting period. RF Chemical Weapons pretext (11:03) remains active, covering the preparation for the strategic strike targeting this AO's operational support nodes.	HIGH
ZAPORIZHZHIA (Stepnohirsk/Huliaipole)	RISING THREAT - KINETIC.	FACT: Confirmed combat footage and FPV activity near Huliaipole (11:29). JUDGMENT: This confirms active RF engagement across the central Zaporizhzhia sector, validating the threat to the western flank of Stepnohirsk as a true operational maneuver, not a mere fixation effort.	HIGH
SIVERSK (Zvanivka)	ACUTE RISK/IO AMPlified.	FACT: RF claims completion of the operational encirclement of Siversk (TASS/Kimakovsky 11:52). JUDGMENT: While unconfirmed, this narrative is intended to force the UAF 10th OGShBr to commit localized reserves prematurely or panic UAF High Command into diverting assets from the critical Pokrovsk or Stepnohirsk counter-penetration efforts.	MEDIUM
DEEP REAR (Lviv)	CONFIRMED INTERDICTION.	FACT: Power outages affecting 160 settlements in Lviv Oblast (11:40). JUDGMENT: Confirms the lethality of previous RF deep strikes targeting energy infrastructure, validating the risk assessment associated with the imminent 2652th GRAU strike.	HIGH

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear and cold. No change. The environment continues to favor RF synchronized deep strike/hybrid operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF DISPOSITIONS: RF forces are optimizing their posture to maximize UAF C2 distraction. The simultaneous escalation of the US/NATO ultimatum narrative and the claims of Siversk encirclement are highly destabilizing control measures aimed at the UAF NCA. UAF CONTROL MEASURES: NCA attention remains dangerously fragmented. The focus must immediately shift from managing the threat of the Trump Peace Plan to managing the threat of political collapse due to the IO amplification of the supposed US ultimatum. Confidence: HIGH

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities: RF demonstrates mastery in using high-credibility external sources (e.g., The Guardian) to amplify strategic IO targeting UAF C2 legitimacy and decision-making capacity. Intentions (JUDGMENT - HIGH CONFIDENCE):

Induce Strategic Paralysis (Primary Effort): Use the US Ultimatum narrative (11:54, 12:00) to create a crisis of confidence within the NCA, delaying critical kinetic decisions (e.g., reserve commitment) NLT 221800Z, clearing the window for the strategic missile strike.
Achieve Operational Feat (Siversk): The encirclement claim (11:52) is intended to fix UAF forces, allowing the RF to consolidate gains west of Mirnohrad (Pokrovsk axis) without external interference.
Diversionary IO: Claimed "liberation" of Radostnoye (11:41) is a low-cost, high-yield informational maneuver intended to force UAF analysts to commit time to validating a false operational axis in Dnipropetrovsk.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The primary adaptation is the weaponization of the diplomatic process. The RF is no longer just reporting on the peace plan; it is actively using fabricated or exaggerated reporting of an international ultimatum to create systemic political chaos in Kyiv, specifically targeting the window of opportunity before the expected GRAU strike.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

The 2652th GRAU strategic missile threat remains imminent (12-24 hour window). The confirmed Lviv power outages underscore that RF deep strike assets are capable and mission-ready.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains SUPERIOR. Synchronization is visible between the tactical IO (Siversk claims) and the strategic IO (ultimatum amplification), all supporting the overarching kinetic goal (Pokrovsk breach/GRAU strike).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: UAF forces are kinetically engaged in three high-tempo sectors (Pokrovsk, Siversk, Zaporizhzhia). The successful strike on Syzran (11:49) demonstrates deep-strike offensive capability, but this is overshadowed by internal political and infrastructure vulnerabilities. READINESS: Strategic readiness is now critically degraded by the extreme pressure placed on the NCA via the ultimatum narrative. The political decision-making cycle risks collapse or severe delay.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

SUCCESS: Confirmed drone strike on Syzran (RF territory) maintains deterrent and counter-logistics pressure. Visit by the Norwegian Ambassador (11:45) provides a necessary counter-narrative of long-term international resilience support. CRITICAL SETBACK: Lviv power outages confirm ongoing vulnerability. The amplified ultimatum narrative is the most significant operational setback, demanding immediate crisis management from the highest levels of C2.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: The primary resource required is NCA cohesion and immediate political action to decisively counter the ultimatum IO campaign. CONSTRAINT: Political fragmentation (Trump Plan debate, ultimatum shock) is consuming time and energy that should be dedicated to Air Defense and kinetic reserve allocation. Confidence: HIGH

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF Narrative	Source/DTG	Intent/Analysis	Confidence
US/NATO Ultimatum	Tsapliyenko, Operatyvnyi ZSU (11:54, 12:00)	CRITICAL: Strategic IO Strike. Intended to create maximum political panic, force immediate (and potentially detrimental) diplomatic concessions, and undermine the legitimacy of the military high command.	HIGH
Siversk Encirclement	TASS/Kimakovsky (11:52)	Operational IO. Attempt to tie down reserves or induce UAF tactical error by promoting a false or exaggerated threat level on a secondary axis.	MEDIUM
Radostnoye 'Liberation'	RF MoD (11:41)	Diversionary IO. Attempt to spread UAF ISR resources thinly by claiming fictional gains on the Dnipropetrovsk axis.	HIGH

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The perception of a US/NATO ultimatum, whether factual or not, carries an overwhelming psychological weight. This narrative directly targets popular belief in continued Western support and national sovereignty, raising the risk of civil demoralization and internal security incidents beyond the Odesa TCC bombing.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The immediate priority for the Switzerland delegation must shift from modifying the peace plan parameters to securing a unified, public statement of support from key allies that explicitly refutes the ultimatum narrative and affirms enduring military and financial support. Confidence: HIGH

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

C2 Disruption and Strike: RF will launch the strategic missile strike package (from 2652th GRAU, likely cruise/ballistic mix) between 222000Z and 230600Z, targeting key C2 nodes, energy infrastructure, and mobilization centers.
Intensified Maneuver: RF 35th Army Groups will intensify pressure on the western flank of Stepnohirsk, capitalizing on the political C2 distraction in Kyiv to secure the encirclement NLT 230400Z.
IO Sustainment: RF state media will run continuous coverage and expert commentary amplifying the political crisis caused by the ultimatum and the (fabricated) Siversk operational success.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 24 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - EXTREMELY REINFORCED)

RF strategic strike package achieves high success against primary and backup UAF National C2 centers (JOC/NCA bunker complexes). Simultaneously, the intense political chaos induced by the ultimatum narrative prevents the NCA from issuing clear, unified orders for reserve deployment to Pokrovsk. This systemic failure allows the 40th/155th OMBR to physically cut the Kostiantynivka GLOC and encircle defending UAF forces west of Pokrovsk NLT 231200Z.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Timeframe	Event/Decision Point	Triggering Indicator
0-2 Hours (STRATCOM/NCA)	Counter-Ultimatum IO Strike: NCA issues unified, Presidential-level statement publicly refuting the ultimatum narrative and affirming national resolve/sovereignty.	Escalation of Guardian report coverage on RF and domestic opposition channels NLT 221500Z. (DECISION POINT: Immediate political C2 crisis response.)
0-4 Hours (J3/JOC)	Siversk Validation/Response: ISR assets confirm the veracity of the Siversk encirclement claim. If confirmed, localized reserves must be committed immediately.	High-fidelity IMINT/UAV confirmation of RF penetration routes leading to the rear of Siversk NLT 221700Z. (DECISION POINT: J3 commitment of limited Northern reserves or decision to accept fixation.)
4-12 Hours (JOC/Air Force)	AD System Lockdown: All Air Defense assets transition to absolute maximum readiness (Anti-Ballistic Priority) to defend critical infrastructure and C2 nodes against the 2652th GRAU strike.	Confirmed missile fueling/launch trajectory detected by forward systems. (DECISION POINT: JOC full dispersal/sheltering of command structures and prioritization of anti-ballistic intercepts.)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Collection Requirement (CR)	Confidence (Pre-Analysis)
CRITICAL - STRATEGIC IO (1)	Source Veracity: Confirmation of the veracity of the US/NATO ultimatum claims reported by The Guardian (i.e., was this a deliberate leak, a misinterpretation, or pure disinformation?).	HUMINT/DIPLOMATIC: Urgent query through established military-diplomatic channels (Defense Attachés) to confirm official US/NATO position on the peace timeline. (PRIORITY 1 - C2 STABILITY)	LOW
CRITICAL - STRIKE READINESS (2)	2652th GRAU Status: Final confirmation of missile type (Kalibr/Kinzhal) and refined launch time estimate.	SAR/HUMINT: Continuous monitoring of the 2652nd Artillery Armament Base for confirmation of high-value system movement or fueling teams. (PRIORITY 1 - AD PREPARATION)	MEDIUM
HIGH - OPERATIONAL STATUS (3)	Siversk Encirclement Status: Independent confirmation of the operational status of the Siversk defensive line and the exact location/strength of RF forces claimed to be completing the encirclement.	IMINT/UAV: Re-task high-altitude ISR to conduct comprehensive sweeps around Siversk's estimated encirclement routes. (PRIORITY 2 - RESOURCE ALLOCATION)	LOW

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

NCA/STRATCOM: EXECUTE IMMEDIATE POLITICAL IO STRIKE (CRITICAL - 2 HOURS).
- Action: NCA must issue an immediate, public, high-level statement (President, Minister of Defense, Commander-in-Chief unified message) that explicitly denies the existence of any international ultimatum and affirms unwavering commitment to non-concessional sovereignty.
- Rationale: The diplomatic IO threat is now the most dangerous weapon aimed at Kyiv. Stabilizing political C2 cohesion is a prerequisite for effective tactical and operational response to the imminent missile strike.
J3/JOC: HARDEN STEPNOHIRSK WESTERN FLANK (URGENT - 4 HOURS).
- Action: Expedite the deployment of the reinforced company/BTG element to the confirmed western approaches of Stepnohirsk (near Prymorske/Mala Tokmachka). Utilize all available C-UAS and anti-tank systems (TOW/Javelin/Stugna-P) to establish hardened defensive positions immediately.
- Rationale: Active combat near Huliaipole confirms kinetic risk. Stepnohirsk is key to the Zaporizhzhia defense line; its collapse will force a costly deeper operational retreat.
J2/AF C2: ISOLATE AIR DEFENSE NETS (CRITICAL).
- Action: Immediately sever all high-level Air Defense (AD) C2 infrastructure (Patriot/SAMP-T/NASAMS command nets) from any network connected to the political NCA/Switzerland delegation communications.
- Rationale: The political distraction is so severe that any RF SIGINT/EW attempt to target the NCA C2 must not be allowed to cascade into the kinetic AD response infrastructure required to defend against the 2652th GRAU strike. Maintain absolute readiness for anti-ballistic defense.

//END SITREP//

Situation Report