DTG: 201730Z NOV 25
REPORTING PERIOD: 201715Z NOV 25 – 201730Z NOV 25
ANALYST CONFIDENCE (Overall): HIGH. The Pokrovsk threat remains critical and is manifesting kinetically. New RF information operations (IO) are directly aimed at reinforcing the momentum created by the Mirnohrad strike. Immediate tactical decisions are required to counter the breakthrough and simultaneous informational pressure.
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (ESCALATION)
Pokrovsk Axis / Mirnohrad Breach: The RF offensive is confirmed to be transitioning from preparatory phase (FAB-3000 strike) to the execution phase.
CRITICAL INFORMATION OPERATION: RF MoD claims the "liberation" of "Shakhterskiy city of Krasnoarmeysk" (Krasnoarmeysk is the Russian name for Pokrovsk).
ANALYTICAL JUDGMENT (HIGH CONFIDENCE): This claim is assessed as premature RF information warfare, designed to signal success and demoralize UAF forces currently defending Pokrovsk. The accompanying video is BDA of a heavily damaged urban area, likely Mirnohrad or an adjacent settlement, not Pokrovsk proper.
Kostiantynivka GLOC: Remains the decisive point. RF efforts are now focused on leveraging the tactical shock to sever this main artery.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (UNCHANGED)
Dry conditions persist, allowing high-tempo mechanized maneuver off-road if required. Impending mud season continues to favor specialized interdiction (SpN/FPV) over large-scale armor movement on secondary routes.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RF Posture: RF C2 is demonstrating high tempo and integration between kinetic action (OMBR maneuver) and immediate IO (Pokrovsk "liberation" claims). RF is attempting to exploit the gap created by the FAB-3000 strike.
UAF Posture: UAF forces are reacting to the tactical breach signal. Logistics protection remains the immediate priority. The informational environment is now saturated with RF claims of imminent collapse, demanding an immediate counter-IO response.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities (Reinforced):
Exploitation Speed: Proven capability to synchronize heavy fire support (FAB-3000) with rapid mechanized exploitation (40th/155th OMBR).
Integrated IO/Kinetic Strategy: RF is utilizing immediate, high-impact claims (Pokrovsk "liberation") to amplify the tactical effect of the breakthrough attempt. This capability suggests a pre-planned IO response for every major kinetic action. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Intentions:
Primary Intent (Immediate): Achieve tactical paralysis in the Pokrovsk sector by severing the main GLOC and reinforcing the perception of imminent collapse via IO.
Secondary Intent (IO/Strategic): The surfacing of a diplomatic narrative ("resumption of trade and cultural exchanges") via Операция Z channels (attributed to US VP Vance, but unverified) is likely an RF attempt to create a façade of diplomatic off-ramp, targeting Western resolve and UAF domestic support. This plays into the previously observed RF "peace plan" narrative.
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
The transition from Mirnohrad to the claim of Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk being "liberated" is the most significant tactical/informational adaptation observed in the last 15 minutes. This is a direct attempt to win the narrative battle before the kinetic action is complete. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status
RF forward logistics support remains sufficient for the immediate assault. The deep strategic friction imposed by the Perm sabotage is not expected to degrade the immediate Pokrovsk assault.
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness
RF C2 is assessed as HIGHLY EFFECTIVE in the multi-domain (kinetic/IO) environment, demonstrating rapid, synchronized messaging that reinforces the tactical breakthrough effort.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
Frontline units are engaged. The logistical supply chain is operating under extreme duress due to the confirmed SpN/FPV threat on secondary routes. Psychological readiness is challenged by the high-impact IO campaign (FAB-3000 and "liberation" claims).
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
The strategic success of the Perm sabotage continues to offset the immediate tactical pressure, but this does not mitigate the immediate kinetic threat at Pokrovsk.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
The greatest constraint remains the shortage of dedicated logistical protection (EW and AD for convoys) to ensure sustainment during the RF breakthrough attempt.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
IMMEDIATE RF IO (Operational): The RF MoD claim of "liberation" of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) is a strategic lie intended to create panic among UAF command and units in the sector, potentially triggering unauthorized withdrawals. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
SECONDARY RF IO (Diplomatic Framing): The introduction of the "US VP Vance calls for resumption of trade" narrative (via Операция Z) is assessed as a low-probability, high-impact diplomatic disinformation attempt to signal that Ukraine's Western support is fracturing or seeking premature normalization with Russia. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
The convergence of the FAB-3000 shock and the Pokrovsk "liberation" claim will critically test domestic and frontline morale.
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
The presence of high-level US DoD officials in Kyiv directly counters the RF diplomatic IO narratives, but the new claim about VP Vance must be immediately addressed and refuted by STRATCOM.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 12 Hours
(HIGH CONFIDENCE - Multi-Domain Penetration)
Mechanized Assault Commitment (0-3 Hours): RF armored elements (40th/155th OMBR) will commit the main force through the Mirnohrad breach, attempting to secure an initial forward objective (e.g., a village or crossroad west of Mirnohrad).
Maximized GLOC Interdiction (0-6 Hours): Spetsnaz and FPV teams will execute maximum effort to interdict and destroy targets on the Kostiantynivka GLOC and secondary routes, aiming for confirmed operational closure.
IO Reinforcement: RF state media and military bloggers will amplify the Pokrovsk "liberation" claim until UAF forces publicly stabilize the line or until verifiable evidence of failure forces a retraction.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 48 Hours
(UNCHANGED - Operational Exploitation)
Logistical Collapse and Encirclement: RF achieves logistical denial for a period exceeding 12 hours and the IO campaign successfully degrades UAF C2 effectiveness, leading to the isolation of UAF forward units in the Pokrovsk pocket and subsequent disorganized retreat.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
Timeframe
Event/Decision Point
Triggering Indicator
0-1 Hour (TACTICAL)
Confirmed Breach Consolidation: RF armor establishes a defensive position >2 km past the Mirnohrad blast zone, signaling successful penetration of the security screen.
Confirmed IMINT/ISR of RF heavy armor massing and establishing fighting positions west of Mirnohrad. (DECISION POINT: J3 must commit 50% of the local tactical reserve to counterattack or flank stabilization before RF can consolidate.)
0-2 Hours (IO/C2)
RF Claim Publicly Refuted: UAF STRATCOM and J2 successfully deploy immediate counter-IO to refute the Pokrovsk "liberation" claim.
UAF High Command issues a public statement, corroborated by high-fidelity imagery/video showing UAF forces holding key terrain in Pokrovsk. (DECISION POINT: Failure to refute within 2 hours will lead to internal C2 friction and increased likelihood of tactical panic.)
0-4 Hours (LOGISTICS)
Logistics Resupply Confirmation: J4 confirms that two designated, protected convoys successfully traversed the secondary GLOCs without loss/major interdiction.
J4 radio confirmation of safe arrival at forward logistical points. (DECISION POINT: If UNSAT, J3 must restrict all non-essential fire missions to conserve limited deep-reserve ammunition.)
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Priority
Gap Description
Collection Requirement (CR)
Confidence (Pre-Analysis)
CRITICAL - TACTICAL AXIS
40th OMBR Current Location/Depth of Penetration: Precise coordinates and assessed intent (bypass vs. assault) of the committed mechanized battalion tactical group (BTG).
IMINT/ISR (Mirnohrad and Flanks): Task all available ISR assets (SAR, UAV) to the immediate west/southwest of Mirnohrad. Prioritize persistent surveillance on the routes leading to the Kostiantynivka GLOC. (UNSATISFIED - PRIORITY 1)
LOW
CRITICAL - COUNTER-IO
Source and Verification of "VP Vance" Claim: Confirm the origin and veracity of the diplomatic IO narrative to effectively dismantle it.
SIGINT/HUMINT/OSINT (US/RF IO Channels): Task OSINT analysts to confirm the existence and exact wording of any statement by US VP Vance regarding Russia-Ukraine trade/cultural exchanges. (UNSATISFIED - PRIORITY 1)
LOW
HIGH - LOGISTICS INTERDICTION
SpN Interdiction Team Locations: Pinpoint the location of the enemy hybrid teams currently targeting UAF secondary GLOCs.
TECHINT/WPNINT (Secondary GLOCs): Task EW ground teams to sweep known secondary routes for Spetsnaz communications/C2 signatures (low-power bursts, satellite phones) and FPV drone launch signatures. (UNSATISFIED - PRIORITY 2)
LOW
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
J3: Commit Designated Blocking Force to GLOC Protection (CRITICAL - TACTICAL).
Action: Immediately commit 100% of the designated logistical blocking force (e.g., mechanized infantry reserve with antitank capability) to establish positions on the Kostiantynivka GLOC and pre-identified choke points on the tertiary routes, acting as both armor screen and SpN/FPV hunting teams.
Rationale: The main assault is underway. Protection of the GLOC is paramount; the battle for Pokrovsk now depends entirely on the flow of ammunition and fuel.
Action: UAF High Command (J3) must release an immediate, high-visibility counter-message within the next 60 minutes:
Refute Pokrovsk Claim: Publicly state that the RF claim of Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk "liberation" is a lie, providing geotagged video/photo evidence of UAF defenders holding key terrain.
Reinforce Perm Success: Reiterate the severe logistical damage inflicted by the Perm sabotage to offset the tactical setback narrative.
Rationale: Decisive IO response is required to stabilize C2 and frontline morale against the synchronized RF multi-domain attack.
Action: Utilize all available directional jamming and low-altitude AD (ZU-23-2, MANPADS) to create temporary, moving "clean corridors" for high-priority logistics convoys on secondary routes for the next 4 hours. No high-value convoy is permitted to move without dedicated EW cover.
Rationale: Mitigate the immediate, confirmed threat posed by adaptive RF SpN/FPV teams focusing on logistical interdiction.
