Situation Report

OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - IPB ANALYSIS

DTG: 221800Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 221730Z NOV 25 – 221800Z NOV 25 ANALYST CONFIDENCE (Overall): HIGH. The kinetic tempo on the Pokrovsk axis is matched by a strategic maximum-pressure Information Warfare (IW) campaign aimed at forcing political capitulation. The IW threat remains the most critical immediate threat to national cohesion.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad Axis (CRITICAL): Previous reports of the FAB-3000 strike and imminent mechanized assault remain valid. All kinetic and informational resources are being synchronized to exploit the anticipated breach, which centers on the logistical hub of Kostiantynivka and the main line of resistance (MLR) around Myrnohrad.
• Kupyansk/Borova Axis: RF milblogger data (Сливочный каприз) claims engagement activity in the Borova - Borivska Andriivka sector. This confirms sustained RF pressure in the northeast, likely a fixing operation intended to prevent UAF redeployment south. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF CLAIM)
• Deep Rear (Ternopil/Dnipropetrovshchyna): UAF Air Force reports drone activity heading toward Pavlohrad, and explosions were reported in Dnipro. This confirms the RF strategy of simultaneous deep strikes to degrade logistics and civil morale (Dempster-Shafer belief supports a high probability of missile strikes on infrastructure in Ternopil: 47.9%).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• No significant change from previous reports. Low-light/night operations confirmed (thermal video from 'АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА'). Severe winter conditions remain a significant operational factor affecting ground mobility.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF Posture (Rear): Civilian authorities (КМВА) in Ternopil are activating "Invincibility Points" and civil services following deep strikes, demonstrating continued organizational resilience in rear areas.
• RF Force Posture (IO Focus): Putin's highly publicized focus on AI (TASS, Alex Parker Returns) and longevity/strategic development is intended to project long-term stability and technological superiority, distracting from tactical setbacks and justifying the prolonged war effort domestically.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities:

1. Synchronized Hybrid Pressure (CRITICAL): RF demonstrates the ability to simultaneously execute a major kinetic assault (Pokrovsk) and a sophisticated geopolitical/IW campaign designed to undermine the political will of the target nation (Ukraine) and its allies (US/West).
2. Special Operations/Reconnaissance: Thermal footage from 'АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА' indicates continued close-range reconnaissance and infiltration capabilities by RF Spetsnaz or dedicated reconnaissance groups in heavy cover, supporting MLCOA of GLOC interdiction (Kostiantynivka).

Intentions:

1. Immediate Tactical Success: Achieve a operational breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis using overwhelming firepower and mechanized assault elements (40th/155th OMBR).
2. Coerce Political Collapse (STRATEGIC): Use the circulating US/RF "peace plan" as a primary weapon to generate a political crisis in Kyiv, potentially forcing the replacement of President Zelensky or compelling acceptance of maximum concessions (territory, military limits, cultural demands like Russian language status).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• IW Integration: The rapid dissemination and consistent reinforcement of the "capitulation plan" through multiple Western (CNN, Reuters) and RF-aligned media channels confirms a high level of integration between RF military operations and their diplomatic/informational assets.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• RF Logistics: Russian milblogger accounts (Kotsnews, Alex Parker) continue to highlight internal corruption and inefficiency (e.g., General's association with corrupt ex-governors, use of military personnel for personal construction), suggesting persistent friction and morale issues within RF logistics/C2 that UAF SpN attacks (Perm rail sabotage) seek to exploit.
• UAF Logistics (Risk): The renewed missile and drone strikes on Dnipropetrovshchyna and Ternopil aim to sever or disrupt major logistics hubs supporting the eastern front.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• RF C2: Highly effective at synchronizing the narratives of diplomatic pressure (CNN/Reuters leaks), military escalation (FAB-3000), and domestic stability (Putin's AI focus).
• UAF C2 (Challenge): UAF StratCom faces an immediate C2 challenge in maintaining control of the political narrative amid high-level corruption scandals (ex-Vice-Premier bail) and the simultaneous external diplomatic pressure.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Frontline Morale: UAF SOF continues to conduct effective counter-force raids (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing successful grenade attack and casualty recovery in Donetsk Oblast), indicating high morale and offensive capability in localized engagements.
• Diplomatic Activity: President Zelenskyy’s meeting with Turkish President Erdogan (reported by 🇺🇦 Владислав Гайваненко) is a positive indicator of active, non-US/RF aligned diplomatic hedging to secure regional support and maintain international legitimacy against the 'peace plan' narrative.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success: Confirmed successful UAF DRG/SOF raid in Donetsk Oblast (Video BDA).
• Setback: Renewed deep strike activity on Dnipro, increasing the operational burden on UAF air defense and civil infrastructure recovery.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• IO/StratCom: Must immediately mobilize resources to counter the core elements of the "peace plan" (territorial cession, army limits, Russian language status) and provide clear, reassuring communication to the public and military units.
• Anti-Corruption: The highly public nature of high-profile corruption cases (Chernyshov bail) severely constrains UAF’s political capital and domestic support, especially when contrasted with the sacrifice at the front.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• CORE IO THREAT (CRITICAL): The narrative has solidified: the alleged "peace plan" requires territorial concessions (Donbas), 50% army reduction, limits on weapons, and institutional status for Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church (FT, Reuters, TASS, Басурин о главном).

  • ANALYSIS: This goes beyond mere military pressure. It is a demand for the complete political and cultural surrender of Ukrainian sovereignty. RF milbloggers (Старше Эдды, Colonelcassad) are exploiting domestic political issues (corruption scandals) to legitimize the claim that Zelensky is being forced to "capitulate" due to malfeasance.

• UAF Counter-Messaging: Ukrainian channels (КіберБорошно, Шеф Hayabusa) are actively rejecting the narrative, emphasizing the high price paid for sovereignty. This rejection needs official, presidential-level amplification.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Public messaging indicates deep anxiety about attacks on infrastructure (Шеф Hayabusa) and outrage over the proposed concessions (КіберБорошно). The simultaneous pressure from the front and the rear (Ternopil strikes) is designed to maximize societal fatigue.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• US Position: The circulation of the proposal being pushed by the "Trump Administration" (CNN, РБК-Україна) suggests that this is a projection of a post-election Western policy shift, which RF is exploiting preemptively to create maximum uncertainty and pressure on the current administration in Kyiv.
• Turkish Channel: Zelenskyy’s meeting with Erdogan is an attempt to diversify diplomatic support away from potentially wavering Western allies.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 24 Hours (221800Z NOV 25 - 231800Z NOV 25)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - Coordinated Escalation)

1. Mechanized Assault Commitment (Pokrovsk): RF forces (40th/155th OMBR) will initiate the main mechanized thrust into the gap cleared by the FAB-3000, aiming to seize key road junctions leading into Pokrovsk/Kostiantynivka.
2. Hybrid Escalation: RF will introduce a new, high-visibility IW element (e.g., a fabricated 'document' related to the peace plan or a staged defection of a minor Ukrainian official) to further confuse the political landscape and amplify pressure on Kyiv.
3. Counter-Air Campaign: Sustained drone/missile attacks will target rear-area infrastructure, focusing on logistical chokepoints in Dnipro and Poltava regions to disrupt UAF resupply to the Pokrovsk sector.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 48 Hours

(MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Domestic/Political Fracture)

The combination of the Pokrovsk breach, deep strikes on civilian targets, and sustained IO pressure (the 'capitulation plan') results in a critical loss of confidence among key domestic decision-makers (political or military). This leads to an uncoordinated political response or, critically, a failure to immediately commit the tactical reserves mandated in previous reports, leading to the RF operational exploitation of the Pokrovsk line and forcing a crisis withdrawal.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. STRATCOM/MoD: Counter Hybrid Warfare (IMMEDIATE).

   • Action: In addition to the Presidential rejection, the Ministry of Defence must issue a direct communication to all frontline unit commanders via secure channels (and public channels) explicitly stating that ALL rumors of political concessions are RF psychological warfare and that no changes to operational orders or defensive lines are authorized.
   • Rationale: The "capitulation plan" attacks the morale and loyalty of the fighting force at the moment of highest kinetic stress (Pokrovsk). Direct, targeted counter-messaging is mandatory to maintain C2 integrity.

2. J3/FRONT LINE COMMANDERS: Initiate Blocking Defense (URGENT).

   • Action: Assume the FAB-3000 strike was successful in collapsing initial defenses. Do not delay reserve commitment. Utilize heavy artillery and anti-tank fire to target anticipated RF assembly areas before they cross the line of departure (LOD). Ensure prepared alternate defensive positions (ADPs) are manned and stocked, focusing on interdicting bypass attempts around Myrnohrad.
   • Rationale: Preventing RF from establishing a lodgment is easier than dislodging them from one. Time is critical.

3. J4 (Logistics): Secure and Disperse Key Depots (HIGH).

   • Action: Given the confirmed deep strikes on rear areas (Ternopil, Dnipro), immediately disperse high-value fuel and ammunition depots across a wider area and establish redundant C-UAS protection (EW coverage) over all active logistics hubs.
   • Rationale: RF is actively targeting the logistical spinal cord feeding the Pokrovsk defense. Dispersal and redundancy reduce the impact of successful deep strikes.

//END SITREP//