DTG: 212000Z NOV 25
REPORTING PERIOD: 212000Z NOV 25 – 212200Z NOV 25
ANALYST CONFIDENCE (Overall): HIGH. The RF strategic focus remains fixed on achieving political-cognitive collapse synchronized with the Pokrovsk ground maneuver. New kinetic and political data confirm the immediate threat window remains open.
Ternopil Deep Strike (Confirmed Escalation): Confirmed civilian casualty toll has risen to 25 fatalities, including 3 children (RBC-Ukraine, DSNS). This confirms the kinetic capability and intent to maximize terror and psychological strain on the UAF rear, directly supporting the political destabilization efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - FACT)
Pokrovsk Axis / Southern Front (Kinetic Shaping): RF sources (Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника) are pushing narratives of imminent UAF withdrawal from threatened settlements (Zelenyi Hai and Vysokoe) near the Zaporizhzhia front, which is intended to preemptively demoralize UAF forces and set conditions for a localized breakthrough. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - JUDGEMENT)
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZAES): Ukrenergo successfully restored a high-voltage line, temporarily mitigating the Russian-created threat of ZAES blackout. This reflects successful defensive action in the critical infrastructure domain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - FACT)
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
No new significant weather events that would impede the anticipated RF ground assault near Pokrovsk or Kostiantynivka were reported. Air Force reporting of Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches against Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions suggests favorable flying conditions for fixed-wing strike aircraft. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - FACT)
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RF Deep Strike Posture: Confirmed air activity (KAB launches) over Southern and Eastern sectors (Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk). This pattern sustains pressure and ties down UAF air defense assets, preventing reallocation to the critical Pokrovsk sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - FACT)
RF IO Confirmation (Psychological Focus): A pro-RF military blogger (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС channel) explicitly confirmed the strategic intent behind deep strikes: "Our strikes are mainly on Left-Bank Ukraine and Odesa region. Thus we provoke the peaceful population to leave these territories, which should become ours." This directly confirms the psychological and demographic objectives of RF kinetic operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - FACT/JUDGMENT FUSION)
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Precision Psychological Targeting: RF demonstrates the ability to identify and exploit high-profile UAF personnel losses (e.g., grandson of Levko Lukyanenko) for immediate amplification, using tactical losses to inflict strategic-level morale damage.
Integrated IO/CNO: RF IO channels (Джокер ДНР) continue to actively claim penetration of UAF military staff networks and disseminate internal documents (MDMP charts, logistics plans), aiming to degrade trust in UAF C2 integrity.
Intentions:
Sustain Political Chaos: RF's primary intention is to maintain maximum political pressure and internal confusion (Ministerial resignations, NABU investigations, coalition talks) while the kinetic element (Pokrovsk assault preparation) reaches its climax.
Enforce Inevitability: Propagandize UAF operational setbacks (alleged Mirnohrad 'kettle' talks, Zelenyi Hai withdrawal claims) to reinforce the narrative that a political solution (US/RF peace deal) is inevitable and Kyiv is being deliberately excluded.
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
Shift in IO Focus (Political Pressure): The reported arrival of US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll in Kyiv (Alex Parker Returns) is immediately interpreted by pro-RF channels as leverage delivery for the alleged US/RF peace deal, maintaining pressure on the highest levels of UAF political command.
Propaganda Acknowledgment of Deception: Pro-RF military bloggers (Fighterbomber) publicly acknowledged that the RF Ministry of Defense issued "old footage" (possibly relating to ATACMS strike claims), confirming internal awareness of the need to compensate for lacking kinetic success with deliberate deception. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - FACT)
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status
RF Reserve Financial Commitment: Confirmation that Russia is allocating an additional 50 billion rubles to the "Defenders of the Fatherland" fund signals continued financial readiness to sustain the conflict and support long-term mobilization efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - FACT)
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness
RF C2 Synchronization: RF C2 continues to excel in coordinating strategic IO (peace leaks, political scandal amplification) with kinetic operations (Ternopil, KAB strikes) to shape the battlefield for the impending Pokrovsk ground maneuver.
UAF C2 Constraint: The ongoing political turmoil (Ministerial firings, NABU investigations into high-ranking officials) confirms a critical C2 distraction at the strategic level, exactly as predicted in the MLCOA timeframe. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - FACT)
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
Administrative Focus: UAF is initiating measures to standardize military identity documentation (replacement of paper tickets with ID-cards), indicating an attempt to maintain long-term administrative efficiency despite the immediate crisis.
43rd OMBR (Resilience Indicator): Public fundraising for the 43rd Mechanized Brigade highlights ongoing reliance on volunteer support for tactical mobility and sustainment, a resilience factor but also an indicator of systemic logistics strain.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
Success (Infrastructure Security): Successful repair/restoration of the high-voltage line feeding ZAES confirms high proficiency in critical infrastructure defense and rapid damage assessment/repair capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - FACT)
Setback (Human Cost/IO Amplification): The confirmation of 25 civilian fatalities in Ternopil, combined with the loss of a high-profile UAF serviceman (grandson of L. Lukyanenko), provides RF IO with powerful material for demoralization campaigns.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
Constraint: The internal investigation involving high-level officials (NABU/Mindich/Umerov) creates an environment of mistrust and potential operational paralysis, consuming valuable strategic leadership time.
Requirement: Urgent psychological operations (PSYOP) support is needed to counter the rapid spread of the 'peace deal' narrative, which is directly linked to RF efforts to paralyze the UAF operational response near Pokrovsk.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
Peace Narrative Reinforced (CRITICAL): Multiple sources (RBC-Ukraine, Alex Parker Returns) amplified the Reuters report claiming US-RF peace talks occurred without Kyiv's participation, and subsequent claims of US Army Secretary arrival to deliver "terms." This creates the immediate cognitive precondition for operational hesitation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Coup/Corruption Narrative: NABU reporting on political figures being implicated in investigations (Mindich, Haluschenko, Hrynchuk) is instantly leveraged by RF sources (Colonelcassad, Alex Parker) to portray Kyiv as corrupt, weak, and collapsing, further justifying the "peace deal" narrative.
Exclusion of Refugees: TASS reporting on Germany potentially revoking civilian benefits for refugees arriving after April 2025 is intended to generate anxiety among the civilian populace regarding long-term Western support.
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
Sentiment is likely plummeting due to the deadly Ternopil strike, combined with the high-profile internal political chaos and the persistent, high-confidence reports of a looming, non-negotiable US-RF peace deal.
RF propaganda (Джокер ДНР) specifically claims UAF soldiers in the Mirnohrad and Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk regions are discussing being "abandoned" by command, a deliberate attempt to seed internal dissent immediately before the offensive.
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
US Delegation Presence: The arrival of US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll suggests high-level engagement remains, but RF IO is exploiting the event to claim the delivery of surrender terms, neutralizing the positive perception of US support. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - JUDGEMENT)
German Refugee Policy: While minor, the German policy shift regarding refugee benefits provides a narrative hook for RF to argue that Western support is waning or conditional. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - FACT)
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
The kinetic ground attack is now immediately synchronized with the peak of the political-cognitive collapse operation. The window for the Kostiantynivka GLOC interdiction is at its narrowest.
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 4 Hours (212200Z NOV 25 - 220200Z NOV 25)
(HIGH CONFIDENCE - GLOC Interdiction Execution)
Immediate GLOC Closure: RF Spetsnaz execute the planned complex ambush (IED/ATGM/Small Arms) on the Kostiantynivka GLOC. This is the kinetic trigger for the larger operation.
Deep IO Spike: Coordinated with the GLOC strike, major RF channels (and compromised Western sources) simultaneously release high-impact, fabricated announcements, possibly mimicking official US or Ukrainian communication, declaring the implementation of a "preliminary cease-fire."
Preparatory Fire (Pokrovsk): Increased rocket and tube artillery fire on UAF forward defensive positions (Volodymyrivka–Sofiivka sector) to suppress UAF fire and cover the final positioning of 40th and 155th OMBR formations prior to the main assault.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 24 Hours
(HIGH CONFIDENCE - Operational Paralysis)
Scenario Refined: MLCOA is executed successfully, closing the Kostiantynivka GLOC for 12+ hours. The simultaneous IO surge causes critical confusion and hesitation within UAF sector command (J3/J6), leading to delayed or contradictory C2 directives. The 40th/155th OMBR attacks exploit the ensuing ammunition shortage and C2 failure, achieving an operational breakthrough of 5-8 km near Pokrovsk, severely compromising the main defensive belt. This MDCOA relies on the political crisis paralyzing the military response.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
Timeframe
Event/Decision Point
Triggering Indicator
0-2 Hours (CRITICAL)
SpN Engagement/GLOC Closure: Confirmed hostile kinetic contact on the Kostiantynivka road corridor leading to logistical stoppage.
Confirmed imagery (UAS/Thermal) of destroyed vehicles or successful IED activation on the road. (IMMEDIATE DECISION POINT for ROE escalation)
2-6 Hours
Main Assault Confirmation: RF mechanized units commence organized attack in Brigade-strength (40th/155th OMBR) across the main line of contact near Pokrovsk.
Confirmed ISR/SIGINT indicating high volume of RF armor movement and large-scale indirect fire support packages.
0-1 Hour
CINC Strategic Communication: Mandatory, unified public and internal military directive rejecting all 'peace' rumors and confirming sole focus on Pokrovsk defense.
Failure to issue a unified statement within 1 hour will be assessed as a self-inflicted C2 vulnerability.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Priority
Gap Description
Collection Requirement (CR)
Confidence (Pre-Analysis)
CRITICAL - TECHNICAL
GLOC/SpN Location: Precise current location and composition of Spetsnaz elements targeting the Kostiantynivka GLOC to facilitate preemptive engagement.
ISR: Continuous low-altitude UAS/FPV patrols (thermal imagery) dedicated exclusively to the Kostiantynivka corridor (5km deep), focused on identifying ambush positions.
MEDIUM
CRITICAL - FORCE TRACKING
RF Assault H-Hour: Confirmed timeline for the mechanized assault kickoff by the 40th/155th OMBR.
IMINT/MASINT: High-resolution SAR or overhead electro-optical imagery of RF staging areas (e.g., Volodymyrivka–Sofiivka) to detect mass movement toward the line of contact (MTC).
MEDIUM
HIGH - IO VULNERABILITY
UAF Internal Network Integrity: Determine if the internal administrative systems or tactical networks are vulnerable to RF CNO/SIGINT exploitation planned to coincide with the kinetic attack.
CYBER/J6: Immediate CNO sweep for indicators of compromise (IOCs) on primary C2 communications links in the Pokrovsk sector HQ and the Presidential Office network.
Action: Immediately deploy all designated Hunter-Killer teams (SOF/SpN) into the Kostiantynivka corridor. Use indirect fire (Artillery/MLRS) to suppress suspected RF SpN positions identified by ISR, prioritizing pre-emptive interdiction over passive waiting.
Rationale: The threat has moved from potential to imminent. Closing the GLOC is RF's decisive condition for success; aggressive defense is mandatory.
Action: A dedicated crisis communication team must broadcast an official, high-level message (President/CINC/Minister of Defense) rejecting the US/RF peace rumors as hostile disinformation. Simultaneously, J6 must initiate tactical network quarantine procedures for any non-essential C2 links to prevent hostile spoofing during the expected IO surge.
Rationale: Neutralize the cognitive component of the hybrid attack, ensuring commanders on the line trust their orders, not foreign media leaks.
Action: Immediately cease all non-essential road traffic on the Kostiantynivka GLOC. Activate emergency forward caches prepared per the previous directive. Task mobile SHORAD assets (MANPADS teams, Gepard/Avenger) to establish interlocking air defense sectors 1km on either side of the critical Kostiantynivka road corridor to deter aerial reconnaissance and FPV strikes on convoys.
Rationale: Prepare for GLOC closure and ensure the 40th OMBR assault meets immediate resistance without ammunition starvation.
