Situation Report

TACTICAL AND OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 060235Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 060230Z NOV 25 – 060235Z NOV 25 ANALYST CONFIDENCE (Overall): HIGH (Focus remains on synchronized rear-area threat and imminent strategic strike.)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Zaporizhzhia Oblast (NEW CONTACT): Confirmed RF attack resulting in civilian casualties and property damage (0205Z). The nature of the attack (Airstrike or Missile) is uncertain, but it confirms continued RF pressure on rear-area civilian infrastructure outside the main Donbas focus.
  • JUDGMENT: This localized strike activity in Zaporizhzhia is assessed as maintaining broad pressure across the front line and tying up emergency response resources, rather than a significant shift in the operational center of gravity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Volgograd (Deep Rear - STABLE): The confirmed successful UAF deep strike reported previously remains the dominant action in the RF deep rear, indicating sustained UAF strategic reach.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Conditions remain characterized by fog/low clouds across the operational zone, favoring low-altitude UAV flight and RF infiltration operations (Kostiantynivka). No significant changes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF AD Posture: UAF Air Force is actively tracking the initial Shahed groups entering Kharkiv Oblast. Readiness remains at maximum alert for the main strategic wave.
• RF Strike Timing: The predicted main strategic strike (Shahed wave) is imminent (T+0 to T+4H).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities:

1. Sustained Strike Capacity: RF maintains the capacity for synchronized deep strikes (imminent Shahed wave) and localized kinetic attacks against civilian targets (Zaporizhzhia, 0205Z).
2. Covert Reconnaissance: The newly confirmed deployment of the "Knyaz Veshchiy Oleg" fiber-optic UAV provides RF SpN with a highly resilient, low-emission ISR platform for rear-area operations (Kostiantynivka). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

Intentions:

1. Systemic Disruption: RF intent remains to paralyze UAF C2/logistics through coordinated air strikes and internal rear-area disruption (Kostiantynivka).
2. Information Management: RF continues to promote domestic political narratives (tax benefits, 0228Z) to distract from UAF military successes (Volgograd strike) and maintain a stable domestic image. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• No new tactical changes identified in this immediate reporting period. RF operational tempo is consistent with the pre-strike I&W pattern established in the previous report.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• RF continues to absorb the impact of the UAF strike on the Volgograd MIC target. No immediate evidence of widespread logistics failure.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• RF C2 remains synchronized, preparing the final steps for the coordinated strategic strike (air/SpN).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• UAF forces are at maximum alert in the operational rear (Kostiantynivka) and Air Defense sectors (Kharkiv/Dnipro/Poltava). Counter-infiltration operations in Kostiantynivka are now the critical focus.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

1. Deep Strike Effectiveness: Confirmed successful impact and resulting large fire at the Volgograd MIC target (reported previously).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Immediate resource prioritization remains focused on:
  • Counter-infiltration assets (SOF/QRF) in Kostiantynivka.
  • Mobile SHORAD allocation for point defense against the imminent main Shahed wave.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF media (TASS) maintains a focus on domestic political narratives (tax proposals, 0228Z), shifting attention away from kinetic operations and successful UAF deep strikes. This is standard RF information warfare intended to normalize the conflict and stabilize the domestic cognitive domain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• The attack on Zaporizhzhia (0205Z) confirms continued stress on civilian morale in non-frontline regions, requiring immediate support and counter-messaging from UAF authorities.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• (No new international or diplomatic developments in this reporting period.)

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 2-6 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - Unchanged)

1. Massive Strategic Strike (T+0 to T+4H): The primary Shahed wave (est. 50+ platforms) will impact logistics and Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) targets in Dnipro/Poltava, synchronized with saturation attempts in Kharkiv.
2. Kostiantynivka Activation (T+1 to T+6H): RF SpN groups will leverage the operational confusion created by the air strikes to initiate kinetic actions against UAF C2/ASPs/GLOCs in Kostiantynivka. These actions will likely be guided by the low-emission fiber-optic UAV system.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 24 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - Unchanged)

• Systemic Rear Disruption and Frontal Exploitation: Successful Shahed strikes degrade primary rail hubs and energy nodes supporting the Pokrovsk salient. RF SpN, utilizing low-emission fiber-optic ISR, successfully targets and severs the main logistics artery near Kostiantynivka. The resulting paralysis forces UAF to commit operational reserves to rear-area security, enabling a successful, exploitationary RF mechanized breakthrough on the Pokrovsk salient itself.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. J3 (Ground/SOF): Kostiantynivka Counter-Infiltration (IMMEDIATE ACTION).

   • Action: IMMEDIATE DEPLOYMENT of dedicated hunter-killer teams with thermal and acoustic sensors, focusing on known urban chokepoints and natural cover areas in Kostiantynivka. The counter-infiltration effort must achieve critical mass before the main air strikes commence to prevent synergistic disruption.

2. J3 (Air Defense): Adaptive AD Posture and Alert.

   • Action: Confirm the activation of all passive defenses (hardening, dispersal) at critical logistics nodes in Dnipro/Poltava. Issue a FLASH warning to all commands that the window for the main strategic air strike is NOW OPEN (T+0 to T+4H). Mobile SHORAD assets must be reserved and positioned for point defense of key rail and C2 nodes.

3. J2 (Intelligence/TECHINT): New ISR Threat Mitigation.

   • Action: Disseminate technical guidance on the "Knyaz Veshchiy Oleg" fiber-optic UAV threat to all SOF and forward reconnaissance elements. Counter-ISR efforts in the rear areas must prioritize visual and acoustic detection methods over traditional wide-area EW.

//END SITREP//