Situation Report

TACTICAL AND OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 052300Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 052200Z NOV 25 – 052300Z NOV 25 ANALYST CONFIDENCE (Overall): MEDIUM-HIGH (Multiple confirmed kinetic strikes and escalation of IO regarding Kupyansk and the deep rear.)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Kamianske/Dnipro Axis (Central Front): FACT: UAF sources confirm significant damage to a multi-story building in Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, following a UAV attack (2214Z). FACT: RF sources claim a "massive attack on Dniprodzerzhynsk" (Kamianske) targeting "key enemy objects" (2226Z). JUDGMENT: This confirms that the predicted saturation strike has commenced and achieved a kinetic effect on CNI or adjacent residential areas, despite earlier successful UAF AD action (previous SITREP). The proximity of the residential strike to potential CNI remains a high concern. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kupyansk Axis (Northeast Front): FACT: RF claims significant tactical gains, stating "West" group forces cleared 25 buildings in Kupyansk and that only 130 buildings remain to be cleared on the right bank (2225Z, 2226Z, 2232Z). JUDGMENT: While the scale of the claimed success is likely exaggerated for IO purposes, the consistent reporting indicates sustained, high-intensity urban combat and significant RF commitment to seizing Kupyansk on the right bank. This remains the primary RF ground effort in the Northeast. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• Operational Rear (Kostiantynivka): FACT: RF sources publish drone footage (likely thermal/night vision) showing strikes on residential areas in Kostiantynivka (2203Z), claiming the strikes avoided civilian structures. JUDGMENT: This footage serves a dual purpose: 1) Confirms RF surveillance capability over Kostiantynivka, directly supporting the acknowledged presence of SpN elements (previous Daily Report). 2) Provides IO cover for kinetic action that is likely targeting UAF C2 or logistics within the urban environment. The threat to the Pokrovsk GLOC remains critical. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Deep Rear: FACT: RF Ministry of Defence reports the destruction of two fixed-wing UAVs over Bryansk Oblast (2203Z). JUDGMENT: This indicates UAF continues its deep strike strategy targeting RF logistics/infrastructure, even as RF attempts to execute saturation strikes on the UAF rear. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Nighttime operations continue to favor low-level UAV infiltration (confirmed by continued Shahed activity) and the movement of RF ground infiltration teams (SpN) in Kostiantynivka.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF Posture: UAF AD forces in Dnipropetrovsk are actively engaged in defending against the confirmed saturation strike. The simultaneous need to prioritize AD and conduct counter-infiltration operations in Kostiantynivka places extreme strain on resource allocation and C2 effectiveness.
• RF Posture: RF forces are executing the predicted synchronized attack: 1) Intensive ground pressure/urban clearance in Kupyansk. 2) Deep/Saturation strike on CNI in the Central Axis (Kamianske/Kryvyi Rih). 3) Operational disruption/support for SpN in the Pokrovsk operational rear (Kostiantynivka).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities:

1. Sustained Deep Strike Coordination: RF maintains the capability to coordinate multi-hour Shahed strikes across central Ukraine, adapting target priorities (now confirmed to include Kamianske/Dniprodzerzhynsk/Kryvyi Rih).
2. High-Tempo Urban Warfare: Demonstrated ability to sustain tactical momentum and attritional warfare in complex urban terrain (Kupyansk).

Intentions:

1. Exploit Central Vulnerabilities: Maximize damage to CNI in the Dnipropetrovsk axis to delay UAF mobilization/logistics flowing toward the Donbas.
2. Achieve Kupyansk Operational Objective: RF intent is clearly the full capture of Kupyansk on the right bank (West of Oskil River), which is viewed as a high-profile strategic and IO victory.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Targeting Shift in Central Ukraine: Initial focus on Kamianske/Dniprodzerzhynsk suggests RF is targeting industrial/energy nodes along the Dnipro River, potentially to disrupt river crossing capabilities or associated rail infrastructure.
• Motorcycle Tactics (IO/Tactical): RF media highlights the use of dirt bikes for soldier movement/evacuation (2203Z). This suggests the adaptation of small, mobile units for rapid movement in the rugged Donbas terrain or for quick casualty evacuation, potentially supporting the SpN operations.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• UAF deep strikes (confirmed in Bryansk) continue to put pressure on RF logistics, but this pressure has not yet demonstrably slowed RF offensive pace in Kupyansk or the strategic strike tempo.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• RF C2 remains effective in coordinating synchronized tactical and deep operations, as evidenced by the concurrent strikes in Dnipropetrovsk and continued tactical push in Kupyansk.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• AD Readiness: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and attempting to neutralize UAVs heading toward Kryvyi Rih (2222Z). While some strikes achieved effect (Kamianske), AD saturation remains a challenge.
• Northeast Posture: UAF forces in Kupyansk are under immense pressure but are maintaining a defensive presence in the urban area, evidenced by the high number of buildings RF claims they still need to "clear" (130+).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Tactical Successes:

1. Confirmed interception of UAVs over Bryansk Oblast (UAF deep strike program continues).

Setbacks:

1. Confirmed kinetic impact and significant damage to a multi-story building in Kamianske, indicating breach of AD in a key industrial area.
2. Sustained RF tactical advance in Kupyansk is eroding UAF defensive lines in the urban environment.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: AD assets (especially mobile SHORAD) must be immediately prioritized for the central axis (Kamianske, Kryvyi Rih) to mitigate the current saturation strike, while still dedicating resources to counter-SpN in Kostiantynivka.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF IO Victory Claim (Kupyansk): FACT: TASS reports RF commanders claiming Kupyansk will be "fully liberated" within the next week (2232Z). JUDGMENT: This sets an aggressive, public expectation for a significant RF victory. It is designed to demoralize UAF forces holding the line and pressure UAF leadership into diverting scarce reserves to the Northeast instead of the more critical Donbas axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF IO on Kostiantynivka: FACT: RF sources attempt to justify strikes on Kostiantynivka as "avoiding civilian structures" (2203Z). JUDGMENT: This preemptive narrative attempts to mitigate the impact of civilian casualties resulting from strikes in the operational rear, supporting the SpN disruption mission. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• US Political Instability Amplification: FACT: UAF sources report Trump comments on potential nuclear weapons testing (2208Z). JUDGMENT: While not directly RF IO, RF will immediately leverage such statements to further the narrative of global instability and reduce confidence in US strategic deterrence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• The visual confirmation of damage to residential areas in Kamianske, combined with sustained air raid alerts toward Kryvyi Rih, will increase public stress and demand for effective AD coverage in industrial centers.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• The perception of RF closing in on Kupyansk and the continued RF deep strikes will serve as a strong operational signal to international partners regarding the urgency of further military aid, particularly AD systems and long-range fires.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 4-12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The synchronization of deep and tactical pressure will continue:

1. Second Strike Wave on Central CNI: RF will continue the saturation strike, focusing immediately on the Kryvyi Rih area (confirmed UAV trajectory) and then following up with strikes on confirmed un-hit or repairable targets in the Kamianske/Dniprodzerzhynsk corridor based on real-time BDA from the first wave.
2. Kupyansk Final Push: RF will maintain maximum combat power allocation to the Kupyansk right bank, attempting to fulfill the one-week "liberation" promise, likely involving high volumes of artillery and FPV drones against remaining UAF strongpoints.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 24-48 Hours

(MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

• Simultaneous Kupyansk Collapse and GLOC Severance: RF achieves a breakthrough in Kupyansk, forcing UAF units to conduct an unplanned tactical retreat across the Oskil under heavy fire. Simultaneously, the SpN groups in Kostiantynivka execute a successful, synchronized attack that severs the primary GLOC, preventing logistical resupply to the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka area, leading to a major operational crisis in the Donbas theater.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. J3 (Air Defense): Immediate Force Protection for Kryvyi Rih.

   • Action: All available mobile SHORAD (Gepard, Avenger, etc.) must be prioritized to reinforce the air defense umbrella over Kryvyi Rih, where the current UAV threat is directed. Use all available jamming capabilities against the inbound Shaheds.

2. J3 (Ground/SOF): Decisive Counter-Infiltration Operation in Kostiantynivka.

   • Action: The threat of SpN disrupting the Pokrovsk MLOC is paramount. Commit reserve tactical forces (National Guard/Territorial Defense) to secure all high-value logistics nodes (fuel, ammo) in the Kostiantynivka operational area, allowing SSO/GUR units to aggressively pursue and eliminate the RF SpN elements.

3. J5/J2 (IO/PSYOP): Direct Counter-Kupyansk Narrative.

   • Action: Prepare immediate official statements and media releases countering the RF claim of a "one-week liberation" of Kupyansk. Highlight the continued, organized UAF defense and emphasize the high RF attrition rate in urban combat. This must be released within 6 hours to preempt the RF narrative consolidation.

//END SITREP//