Situation Report

TACTICAL AND OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 031300Z NOV 25 ANALYST CONFIDENCE (Overall): HIGH

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational focus remains highly kinetic in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, characterized by aggressive RF ground assaults and highly successful UAF deep strikes on enemy logistics.

• Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Axis): RF pressure on Pokrovsk is escalating rapidly. Reports from a UAF 68th Jaeger Brigade soldier confirm RF forces are present in the southern quarters of Pokrovsk and attempting to establish entrenched positions. This contradicts the previous SITREP's focus on Myrnohrad as the immediate threat, indicating a dual or shifting RF focus, or a more rapid advance than previously estimated. (FACT - UAF Source/HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Luhansk Oblast (Deep Strike): UAF Special Operations Forces (SSO) units executed two highly successful deep strikes overnight:
  1. Targeting a Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricants (POL) unloading site near Dovzhansk (Sverdlovsk).
  2. Targeting a Material-Technical Supply (MTS) depot near Rozkishne. These strikes, confirmed via thermal drone footage, directly degrade RF sustainment in the Luhansk axis. (FACT - UAF SSO/HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Krasnolymansk Axis (Maslyakivka): RF sources claim advances in Maslyakivka (Lymanske direction), stating they have occupied positions in the central part of the settlement. This suggests sustained pressure by RF forces aiming to secure the Maslyakivka-Krasnolymansk line. (FACT - RF Source/MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Unverified claim)
• Kherson Islands: UAF drone operations confirm continued engagement with small groups of RF Naval Infantry (Marines) on the islands in the Dnipro River. (FACT - UAF Source/HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No new significant weather reporting. The current environment favors the continued use of highly capable FPV drones by UAF forces, demonstrated by the confirmed interdiction of RF Naval Infantry on the Kherson islands and the FPV footage indicating operations in damaged urban areas.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Posture: Highly aggressive ground maneuver posture in Donetsk, with confirmed penetration into Pokrovsk city quarters. RF is willing to commit significant resources to secure key urban centers, indicating a critical shift from pressure tactics to full-scale urban assault.
• UAF Posture: UAF maintains effective asymmetric counter-offensive capabilities. The SSO deep strikes and successful FPV operations highlight a decentralized, technology-enabled response to RF ground pressure. (JUDGMENT - Asymmetric Superiority/HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Control Measures (Internal Security): A crucial internal security incident is reported: an individual posing as an "Azov" member was discovered to be an enemy saboteur/guide for RF diversionary groups. This confirms the ongoing threat of hybrid operations and infiltration into UAF-controlled territory. (FACT - UAF Source/HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities:

• Urban Infiltration Capability: RF forces demonstrated the capability to penetrate and establish positions within the quarters of a major urban center (Pokrovsk).
• Sustained Hybrid Warfare: RF continues to utilize infiltration and sabotage (the "Azov" infiltrator incident) alongside conventional attacks, indicating a multi-pronged strategy to destabilize the UAF rear and front lines simultaneously.

Intentions:

1. Capture Pokrovsk (Primary Objective): RF intent is to secure Pokrovsk, a critical logistics and C2 hub, thereby collapsing the UAF defensive line west of Avdiivka and compromising the defense of Myrnohrad.
2. Disrupt Deep UAF Support: RF is likely intensifying deep reconnaissance and sabotage operations to counter the effectiveness of UAF SSO strikes, FPV units, and strategic artillery.

Courses of Action (Confirmed):

• Direct, close-quarters combat (CQB) and entrenchment in the southern quarters of Pokrovsk.
• Persistent deep-strike drone activity (Confirmed UAV movement in Kharkiv/Poltava axis).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The most significant adaptation is the reported direct infiltration into Pokrovsk city quarters, shifting the tactical threat from the periphery (Pokrovsk-Rodynske road) into the heart of the urban defense zone.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF Status: Critically degraded in the Luhansk axis. The confirmed destruction of the POL unloading site at Dovzhansk and the MTS depot near Rozkishne will impose delays and reduced readiness for RF units operating in the Kupyansk/Krasnolymansk directions. (JUDGMENT - Short-Term Logistics Degradation/HIGH CONFIDENCE)

UAF Sustainment (International): The confirmed delivery of additional Storm Shadow cruise missiles by the UK significantly augments UAF deep strike capability, directly supporting the ongoing successful disruption of RF logistics and high-value targets. (FACT - Bloomberg/HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2: Demonstrated capability to coordinate aggressive urban assault across multiple sectors, but suffers from persistent logistical vulnerabilities exploitable by UAF SSO.

UAF C2: High effectiveness in multi-domain coordination (SSO deep strike, FPV operations, and strategic messaging). The coordinated response to the infiltrator threat (the "Azov" saboteur) indicates robust counter-intelligence and security protocols are active.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF readiness is high, particularly in specialized units (SSO, FPV drone teams). The successful deep strikes demonstrate a proactive operational approach designed to neutralize RF advantages.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

• Logistics Interdiction (Luhansk): Destruction of two major RF logistics nodes (POL and MTS) by SSO.
• International Support: Confirmed receipt of additional Storm Shadow missiles, strengthening strategic strike options.

Setbacks:

• Pokrovsk Penetration: Confirmed RF presence in the southern quarters of Pokrovsk necessitates immediate reinforcement and potentially high-cost urban defense operations.
• Internal Security Compromise: The "Azov" saboteur incident highlights a critical vulnerability in screening internal volunteers and rear-area personnel.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate allocation of forces and resources to stabilize the Pokrovsk urban defense line and prevent further RF penetration. This requires prioritizing anti-armor/anti-personnel assets and urban warfare specialists.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Tactical IO (Ground Claims): RF sources are aggressively attempting to amplify claims of success (e.g., Maslyakivka advance, Pokrovsk penetration), likely to preempt UAF public reporting on the successful SSO logistics strikes.
• UAF Focus (Asymmetric Warfare): UAF media emphasizes the success of high-tech and specialized units (SSO, FPV drones, "Mavikoriz" FPV footage), promoting a narrative of technological superiority and effective attrition.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF morale is buoyed by visible successes against RF logistics and the continued receipt of high-end Western aid (Storm Shadow). However, the confirmed presence of RF troops in Pokrovsk will cause significant local civilian concern and necessitate clear communication from UAF C2.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The report of Chinese refiners halting some Russian oil purchases following US sanctions is a persistent positive economic pressure point on the RF economy, validating the strategic use of sanctions coupled with UAF deep strikes on RF energy infrastructure (as per previous SITREP analysis).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 24-48 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will prioritize the tactical capture of Pokrovsk and concurrently attempt to degrade the UAF deep-strike capability:

1. Pokrovsk Urban Assault: RF will commit maximum available resources (armor, infantry, air support) to consolidate positions in the southern quarters of Pokrovsk and initiate an enveloping maneuver to isolate UAF defenders in the city center.
2. Counter-Drone/Counter-ISR: RF will escalate Electronic Warfare (EW) activities and counter-drone (C-UAS) operations in the Pokrovsk and Luhansk sectors to protect their remaining logistics lines and deny UAF the surveillance necessary for follow-on strikes.
3. Kharkiv/Poltava Drone Surge: The confirmed UAV movement toward Poltava suggests an imminent, large-scale deep strike aimed at critical infrastructure (energy, military facilities) or rear-area logistics hubs in central Ukraine.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 72 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF achieves operational breakthrough:

1. Pokrovsk Collapse and Myrnohrad Isolation: RF successfully forces a rapid, disorderly UAF withdrawal from Pokrovsk, seizing the entire urban area and immediately exploiting the momentum to cut the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad road, threatening Myrnohrad's isolation and setting conditions for a collapse of the central Donetsk defensive line.
2. High-Value Target Replication: RF replicates its previous success (ballistic strike on a troop assembly) by successfully striking a high-value UAF strategic target (e.g., Storm Shadow storage/launch facility, high-level C2 node), using enhanced ISR derived from recent successes.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

---

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

---

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. J3/J2 (Maneuver & Fire Support): PRIORITIZE POKROVSK FIRE SUPPORT: Immediately re-task all long-range fire assets (HIMARS, heavy artillery) to support UAF 68th Jaeger Brigade forces in Pokrovsk. Focus on denying RF the ability to bring up heavy armor and secure defensible terrain within the city limits. (CRITICAL PRIORITY)
2. GUR/SBU (Counter-Intelligence): INITIATE COUNTER-SABOTAGE SWEEP: Launch immediate, coordinated counter-sabotage/counter-infiltration sweeps in all rear areas and logistics hubs (Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava Oblasts) to neutralize potential saboteurs identified via the "Azov" incident, particularly ahead of the confirmed UAV surge threat. (CRITICAL PRIORITY)
3. J7/J2 (Strategic Messaging): AMPLIFY SSO SUCCESS: Immediately amplify the SSO logistics strikes (Dovzhansk, Rozkishne) and the Storm Shadow delivery to counter RF claims of tactical success in Pokrovsk and boost international confidence in UAF capacity to degrade RF warfighting capability. (HIGH PRIORITY)

//END SITREP//