Archived operational intelligence briefing
INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT: 150733Z SEP 25
RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia axes. NATO exercises continue in Lithuania, specifically "Grand Eagle 2025" involving airborne operations. Air defenses remain activated across Ukraine due to persistent RF drone and missile activity. UAF deep strikes continue against industrial and logistical targets within RF territory. RF has successfully conducted a space docking mission and continues military exercises (Zapad 2025).
KEY DEVELOPMENTS (LAST 30 MINUTES):
Continued Air/Missile Strikes (Reiteration and Diversification, Targeting Emergency Services, New Sumy/Donetsk/Kharkiv Targets): RF has already executed air/missile strikes, including three S-300 missiles and 84 drones (approx. 50 Shaheds) overnight (РБК-Україна 06:08:28Z), deliberately targeted Nizhyn emergency responders (РБК-Україна 06:45:34Z), and used FAB-250s on Kramatorsk (Оперативний ЗСУ 06:59:37Z). RF will launch further significant air/missile strikes within the next 6-12 hours (prior to 151200Z SEP 25), targeting critical energy infrastructure, DIB facilities, logistics (fuel depot in Nizhyn Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 05:16:00Z), agricultural infrastructure (Sumy РБК-Україна 05:43:40Z), and urban centers (Kramatorsk РБК-Україна 07:02:01Z). The attack will likely feature a high volume of Shahed-type UAVs, guided aerial bombs (Sumy Повітряні Сили ЗС України 07:10:27Z), and missiles. Dnipropetrovsk (ASTRA 07:13:12Z), Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts (Повітряні Сили ЗС України 07:20:37Z) will likely remain targets, leading to more power outages (Zaporizhzhia 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 07:27:04Z) and civilian casualties.
Ground Consolidation and Pressure (Konstantinovka, Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk Border, Pokrovsk, Lyman, Siversk, Sumy Border, Kupiansk, Yuzhno-Donetsk, Kharkiv, Slaviansk-Izyum Road): RF's main ground effort will be to exploit and solidify any gains in Konstantinovka, the Myrnohrad/Kazatskoe sector, at the junction of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, and potentially around Siversk (if claims are verifiable) within the next 24-48 hours. This will involve continuous localized ground assaults supported by artillery, guided aerial bombs (FABs), and FPV drones. This will be supported by ongoing engineer operations, including de-mining (TASS 02:06:11Z). Secondary efforts will continue pressure on the Pokrovsk and Lyman axes, and in Sumy Oblast, seeking to fix UAF forces. RF will continue showcasing combat operations to project success and maintain internal morale (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 04:01:01Z, Воин DV 05:39:12Z, Kadyrov_95 05:40:15Z). RF's intent to advance on Sumy and Pokrovsk is explicitly stated by their milbloggers (Операция Z 04:21:02Z). UAF General Staff maps (05:01:01Z) indicate continued RF pressure and engagements. WarGonzo's (05:08:01Z) and Рыбарь's (05:26:55Z) morning summaries and accompanying maps, along with Zvиздец Мангусту's discussions on operational deployments (05:10:05Z, 05:20:05Z, 05:32:24Z, 05:40:05Z, 05:50:05Z), confirm that RF will continue focused ground pressure. RF will also continue targeted reconnaissance and strike missions (Kotsnews 05:45:41Z). The presence of Chinese mercenaries (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС 05:48:01Z) indicates RF's intent to leverage specialized foreign fighters. The Kupiansk area (Stepova Novoselka) remains an area of RF attention (Сливочный каприз 05:57:25Z). RF claims to have entered Konstantinovka (ТАСС 06:18:42Z) and to be expanding buffer zones and control in Dnipropetrovsk/Dobropillya (ТАСС 06:24:57Z) are direct indicators. RF FAB strikes in Kalinovsky (Colonelcassad 06:40:16Z) and claims of limiting UAF logistics along the Slaviansk-Izyum road (ТАСС 06:41:39Z) indicate continued efforts. The observed RF logistical convoy (Два майора 06:50:15Z) further supports ongoing ground operations. NEW: Colonelcassad's map updates (07:02:45Z) and new combat footage from the 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Воин DV 07:11:11Z) indicate this COA is actively being pursued. The RF fundraising appeal for drones for the Sumy direction (Два майора 07:03:21Z) also indicates continued ground pressure. (Confidence: HIGH)
Escalated Information Warfare and Suppression (Starlink Exploitation, Mercenary Narratives, EU Sanctions, Domestic Control, Financial Disruption, Normalization, Medvedev Threats, China Warning, Trump Factor): RF will significantly intensify its information warfare campaign over the next 24-72 hours.
Limited Cross-Border Ground Incursion (Northern Front Diversion): RF could execute a limited, deniable ground incursion into the Sumy/Chernihiv region, utilizing hybrid forces or Special Operations elements. This would be designed to fix UAF forces, force redeployments, create panic, and open a new, active front. This would be coupled with an intense IO campaign.
Cyber-Attack on Critical Infrastructure (NATO Member State): RF could launch a highly disruptive cyber-attack against a critical infrastructure sector of a NATO member state directly bordering Ukraine. This would be a hybrid escalation, intended to demonstrate RF's capability to inflict costs on NATO without direct kinetic military action.
Tactical Nuclear/Strategic Attack Signal: In conjunction with "Zapad-2025," RF could conduct a highly publicized, unambiguous, and provocative test of a tactical nuclear weapon or a strategic missile launch with a declared (but non-nuclear) warhead into an uninhabited area. This is a significantly higher-risk option than current signaling.
//END REPORT//
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