Continued Air/Missile Strikes (Reiteration and Diversification, Targeting Emergency Services): RF has already executed a high-speed missile strike on Zaporizhzhia Oblast, causing power outages and private homes burning, and additional strikes in Zaporizhzhia district are confirmed, including civilian casualties in Polohy district (04:10:17Z). A previous alert for Zaporizhzhia was active, and attack drones were confirmed inbound, but this air alert has now been terminated (03:55:01Z). RF launched three S-300 missiles and 84 drones (approx. 50 Shaheds) overnight (РБК-Україна 06:08:28Z, ASTRA 06:13:29Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 06:22:32Z), confirming this COA for the immediate past. RF will launch further significant air/missile strikes within the next 6-12 hours (prior to 151200Z SEP 25), targeting critical energy infrastructure and DIB facilities. The attack will likely feature a high volume of Shahed-type UAVs launched from multiple vectors, including the one now on the Sumy/Chernihiv border heading west. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast will likely remain a target, as 6 UAVs were recently shot down there (04:30:14Z, 04:48:58Z). RF will continue to attempt deep strikes on UAF logistical and energy nodes, exemplified by the claimed strike on a fuel depot in Nizhyn (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 05:16:00Z). RF will continue direct targeting of agricultural infrastructure and civilian populations, as demonstrated by the missile strike in Sumy Oblast injuring 12 civilians (РБК-Україна 05:43:40Z, Оперативний ЗСУ 05:44:40Z, STERNENKO 06:00:18Z). NEW: RF has deliberately targeted emergency responders in Nizhyn (РБК-Україна 06:45:34Z, Оперативний ЗСУ 06:56:17Z) and used FAB-250s on Kramatorsk (Оперативний ЗСУ 06:59:37Z), indicating an expanded target set to include civilian emergency services and urban centers, which is likely to continue. (Confidence: HIGH)
- Indicators: Persistent UAV activity from Sumy/Chernihiv towards Kyiv, new UAV group in Kharkiv towards Poltava, UAF warnings of "high probability of a massive air attack tonight," previous successful strike on Tripilska TPP. Continuous real-time reporting of active UAVs. Confirmed RF missile attack in Zaporizhzhia district directly indicates that the imminent, high-speed missile threat materialized, and further strikes remain highly likely. The widespread damage to civilian residential buildings and power outages in Zaporizhzhia (03:35:46Z, 03:39:40Z, 03:58:17Z, 03:38:25Z, 03:42:27Z, 03:58:54Z) and civilian casualties in Polohy district (04:10:17Z) signals that RF is actively conducting such strikes. The successful interception of 6 UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (04:30:14Z, 04:48:58Z) confirms continued RF drone activity against this region. The claimed strike in Nizhyn (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 05:16:00Z) indicates continued RF capability and intent for deep strikes against logistics. The missile strike on Sumy agricultural enterprise (РБК-Україна 05:43:40Z, Оперативний ЗСУ 05:44:40Z, STERNENKO 06:00:18Z) indicates an expanded target set for RF missile strikes. The reported overnight strike of 3 S-300 and 84 drones (РБК-Україна 06:08:28Z) is a direct indicator of this ongoing COA. NEW: The deliberate targeting of emergency services in Nizhyn (РБК-Україна 06:45:34Z, Оперативний ЗСУ 06:56:17Z) and the FAB-250 strikes on Kramatorsk (Оперативний ЗСУ 06:59:37Z) confirm this expanded targeting and are strong indicators of continued attacks. (Confidence: HIGH)
- Decision Point: Within the next 6 hours, based on inbound ballistic missile/UAV trajectories.
Ground Consolidation and Pressure (Konstantinovka, Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk Border, Pokrovsk, Lyman, Siversk, Sumy Border, Kupiansk, Yuzhno-Donetsk, Kharkiv, Slaviansk-Izyum Road): RF's main ground effort will be to exploit and solidify any gains in Konstantinovka, the Myrnohrad/Kazatskoe sector, at the junction of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, and potentially around Siversk (if claims are verifiable) within the next 24-48 hours. This will involve continuous localized ground assaults supported by artillery, guided aerial bombs (FABs), and FPV drones. This will be supported by ongoing engineer operations, including de-mining (TASS 02:06:11Z). Secondary efforts will continue pressure on the Pokrovsk and Lyman axes, and in Sumy Oblast, seeking to fix UAF forces. RF will continue showcasing combat operations to project success and maintain internal morale (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 04:01:01Z, Воин DV 05:39:12Z, Kadyrov_95 05:40:15Z). RF's intent to advance on Sumy and Pokrovsk is explicitly stated by their milbloggers (Операция Z 04:21:02Z), indicating continued ground pressure on these axes. UAF General Staff maps (05:01:01Z) indicate continued RF pressure and engagements in Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivskyi, and Tavriiskyi directions. WarGonzo's (05:08:01Z) and Рыбарь's (05:26:55Z) morning summaries and accompanying maps, along with Zvиздец Мангусту's discussions on operational deployments (05:10:05Z, 05:20:05Z, 05:32:24Z, 05:40:05Z, 05:50:05Z), confirm that RF will continue focused ground pressure on the Dobropillya and Konstantinovka axes and other key fronts, including redeployments of 1st and 39th OMSBr. RF will also continue targeted reconnaissance and strike missions (Kotsnews 05:45:41Z) to degrade UAF tactical assets. The presence of Chinese mercenaries (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС 05:48:01Z) indicates RF's intent to leverage specialized foreign fighters for these ground operations. The Kupiansk area (Stepova Novoselka) remains an area of RF attention (Сливочный каприз 05:57:25Z). NEW: RF claims to have entered Konstantinovka (ТАСС 06:18:42Z) and to be expanding buffer zones and control in Dnipropetrovsk/Dobropillya (ТАСС 06:24:57Z, 06:25:10Z) are direct indicators of this ongoing COA. New combat footage (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС 06:33:01Z) from RF 3rd Army Corps reinforces active ground operations. RF FAB strikes in Kalinovsky (Colonelcassad 06:40:16Z) and claims of limiting UAF logistics along the Slaviansk-Izyum road (ТАСС 06:41:39Z) indicate continued efforts to disrupt UAF and support RF ground advances. The observed RF logistical convoy (Два майора 06:50:15Z) further supports ongoing ground operations. (Confidence: HIGH)
- Indicators: RF claims of entering Konstantinovka city limits and developing offensives at the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk border, sustained multi-axis pressure, continued FAB strikes, RF IO on Lyman, new RF claims of encircling Siversk. RF claims of "Anvar special forces" operations in Sumy. Confirmed RF de-mining operations (TASS 02:06:11Z) indicate preparation or consolidation of ground forces. RF milblogger promotion of volunteer aid for troops "advancing on Sumy and Pokrovsk" (Операция Z 04:21:02Z) is a strong indicator of continued offensive intent and resourcing on these fronts. UAF General Staff maps (05:01:01Z) provide visual confirmation of these ongoing engagements. Daily milblogger updates (WarGonzo 05:08:01Z, Рыбарь 05:26:55Z) and detailed operational analyses (Zvиздец Мангусту 05:10:05Z, 05:20:05Z, 05:32:24Z, 05:40:05Z, 05:50:05Z) further confirm this. New combat footage (Воин DV 05:39:12Z, Kadyrov_95 05:40:15Z, Kotsnews 05:45:41Z) directly supports ongoing ground pressure. The presence of Chinese mercenaries (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС 05:48:01Z) and the redeployment of RF forces (Zvиздец Мангусту 05:40:05Z, 05:50:05Z) indicate active ground operations. RF claims of control in Konstantinovka (ТАСС 06:18:42Z) and Dobropillya (ТАСС 06:24:57Z) are clear indicators. NEW: RF FAB strikes in Kalinovsky (Colonelcassad 06:40:16Z) and claims of impacting UAF logistics on the Slaviansk-Izyum road (ТАСС 06:41:39Z) are direct indicators of continued ground pressure and attempts to disrupt UAF. The observed RF logistical convoy (Два майора 06:50:15Z) signals preparations for or sustainment of ground operations. (Confidence: HIGH)
- Decision Point: Within the next 24-48 hours, based on the success of RF local advances and UAF defensive capabilities.
Escalated Information Warfare and Suppression (Starlink Exploitation, Mercenary Narratives, EU Sanctions, Domestic Control, Financial Disruption, Normalization): RF will significantly intensify its information warfare campaign over the next 24-72 hours.
- Starlink Exploitation (Continued): While Starlink is reportedly restoring, RF will continue to use the initial outage to highlight UAF vulnerabilities and potentially claim EW success, regardless of the actual cause (Операция Z 05:34:40Z), though some RF milbloggers are acknowledging restoration (Два майора 06:09:22Z).
- Delegitimizing Ukraine's Western Support: Amplifying narratives of Western divisions, portraying Western leaders as flawed, and emphasizing the "illegitimacy" of Ukrainian authority. Leveraging Trump's statements on difficult negotiations (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 04:08:04Z, Операция Z 06:02:10Z) and the perceived weakness of EU sanctions (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 05:21:52Z). Deflecting blame for foreign mercenary recruitment to Western media (ТАСС 05:17:02Z). RF will exploit the EU lifting sanctions on RF individuals (ТАСС 05:49:16Z) to highlight perceived cracks in the Western alliance. NEW: RF will continue to reject NATO protests (Два майора 06:16:55Z) and will likely counter Polish FM Sikorski's proposal for direct Western air defense (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 06:11:53Z) with strong negative rhetoric. RF will highlight discussions regarding "Abrams" for Poland as an internal Western "dilemma" (Kotsnews 06:43:32Z). (Confidence: HIGH)
- Managing Domestic Perceptions: Using election results (e.g., Perm Krai, Bryansk, Jewish Autonomous Oblast, Chuvashia, Sverdlovsk, Ulyanovsk, Irkutsk, Arkhangelsk, Bryansk, Leningrad, Sevastopol, Orenburg, Jewish Autonomous Oblast, Novgorod Oblast, Tambov Oblast, Irkutsk Oblast, with ASTRA's confirmation of controlled outcomes 05:57:06Z; Tomsk, Tatarstan Север.Реалии 06:10:58Z, ТАСС 06:50:22Z) to project stability, promoting military successes (Tanker's Day, FPV drone effectiveness, Rosgvardia modernization, special forces operations in Sumy, creation of a "drone production empire," destruction of UAF "Baba Yaga" drones, de-mining operations, humanizing drone operators like "Gaechka," general combat footage, claimed strike in Nizhyn, new combat footage from Yuzhno-Donetsk/Kharkiv, Pantsir deployment, RF 3rd Army Corps combat footage), humanizing RF losses, and discrediting UAF deep strikes. Additionally, using general public health messages (COVID-19 reassurance) and discussions on domestic economic policy (four-day work week, AI in shipping, TASS 05:42:38Z, Hyundai trademarks TASS 06:33:26Z), domestic infrastructure, and legislative priorities. Public service announcements (e.g., fraud warnings to children, TASS 02:29:21Z, TASS 05:33:01Z, МВД warning on false calls ТАСС 06:30:18Z, OSAGO fines Новости Москвы 06:38:36Z) will be integrated to project governmental competence and public welfare. RF will likely downplay or control the narrative around the Angarsk gas explosion (02:50:46Z, 03:01:46Z) and the Irkutsk fire (ТАСС 04:49:24Z) to minimize negative domestic perceptions of instability. RF will also widely disseminate narratives of high UAF losses (TASS 03:23:34Z). RF IO will specifically target Ukrainian mobilization efforts with demoralizing content (Colonelcassad 04:07:04Z) and promote cultural nationalism through domestic policy discussions (Новости Москвы 04:17:06Z, ТАСС 05:57:59Z). RF will also use claims of successfully destroying UAF UAVs (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 04:18:58Z). Promoting futuristic technological prowess (Новости Москвы 05:07:06Z). RF will leverage reports of Chinese mercenaries (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС 05:48:01Z) as evidence of international support. Domestic appointments (Полиция Хабаровского края 05:36:14Z) and legal actions (ТАСС 06:03:53Z) will be used to project internal control. NEW: RF will likely work to manage any negative impact from the military corruption case (Colonelcassad 06:20:17Z) and milblogger critiques of Zapad-2025 (Fighterbomber 06:13:03Z) by either dismissing them as isolated incidents or claiming transparent investigations. RF IO will aggressively use the FSB operation against UAF sponsors (ТАСС 06:45:21Z, Kotsnews 06:57:36Z, ТАСС 07:00:32Z) to project state power and delegitimize UAF support. RF will also continue to normalize the information environment with non-military domestic content (Старше Эдды 07:00:01Z). (Confidence: HIGH)
- Signaling Deterrence: Continuing to publicize strategic missile tests.
- Suppression of Dissent: Increased efforts to suppress independent media. The RF Prosecutor General's demand to confiscate LLC "Lanta" (ТАСС 06:03:53Z) is a direct action to suppress internal support for Ukraine and signals broader state control. NEW: The FSB operation against a financial group accused of sponsoring UAF (ТАСС 06:45:21Z, Kotsnews 06:57:36Z) demonstrates an escalated effort to suppress internal support for Ukraine. (Confidence: HIGH)
- Undermining UAF Technological Prowess: Actively pushing the narrative that Ukraine is losing its technological advantage, reinforced by the Starlink outage narrative.
- Indicators: Ongoing RF IO themes (election results, criticism of US/Poland, "liquidated mercenaries"), Medvedev's recent statements, new media suppression, RF IO on Gaza. RF claims of special forces operations in Sumy and continued election updates. TASS reports on Trump's sanctions comments, the four-day work week, Trump's negotiation role, COVID-19 reassurance, Max messenger tickets, legislative priorities. Colonelcassad's general "warning" message to Ukrainian residents. TASS reports on Orenburg, Jewish Autonomous Oblast, Novgorod Oblast, Tambov Oblast, and Irkutsk Oblast election results (02:27:20Z, 03:06:40Z, 04:15:10Z, 04:41:02Z, 05:08:43Z), fraud warnings (02:29:21Z, 05:33:01Z), human interest stories (03:10:06Z, 06:03:54Z), UAF loss claims (03:23:34Z), the general morning summary (Два майора 03:58:59Z), Fighterbomber's greeting (04:07:12Z), Colonelcassad's anti-mobilization video (04:07:04Z), Trump's negotiation comments (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 04:08:04Z, Операция Z 06:02:10Z), domestic cultural policy discussions (Новости Москвы 04:17:06Z, ТАСС 05:57:59Z), RF air defense claims (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 04:18:58Z), milblogger promotion of volunteer aid (Операция Z 04:21:02Z), the immediate and aggressive RF milblogger exploitation of the Starlink outage (ТАСС 04:54:23Z, Colonelcassad 04:54:26Z, Операция Z 05:34:40Z), domestic tech promotion (Новости Москвы 05:07:06Z, ТАСС 05:42:38Z), Latin American mercenary narrative (ТАСС 05:17:02Z), Trump's sanctions comments (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 05:21:52Z), and domestic health/crime reports (TASS 05:26:58Z). ASTRA's confirmation of controlled election outcomes (05:57:06Z), RF reports of EU sanctions relief (ТАСС 05:49:16Z), and RF legal actions against "pro-UAF" companies (ТАСС 06:03:53Z) are all indicators of this COA. NEW: RF election results in Tomsk/Tatarstan (Север.Реалии 06:10:58Z, ТАСС 06:50:22Z), Fighterbomber's critique (Fighterbomber 06:13:03Z), RF rejection of Romanian protest (Два майора 06:16:55Z), military corruption case (Colonelcassad 06:20:17Z), МВД warning (ТАСС 06:30:18Z), Hyundai trademark news (ТАСС 06:33:26Z), OSAGO fines (Новости Москвы 06:38:36Z), FSB operation against UAF sponsors (ТАСС 06:45:21Z, Kotsnews 06:57:36Z, ТАСС 07:00:32Z), and domestic advertising (Старше Эдды 07:00:01Z) are all new elements RF IO will manage. (Confidence: HIGH)
- Decision Point: Ongoing, with new narratives emerging in response to battlefield events.
