Archived operational intelligence briefing
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: RF deep strikes continue to target Ukraine's defense industry and railway infrastructure, with a new claimed strategic strike against a UAV/Artillery electronics enterprise in Khmelnytskyi. Civilian targeting remains high, with confirmed deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka, sustained attacks on the Nikopol region and Kharkiv Oblast. Reports of increased casualties in Zaporizhzhia (total 4 wounded), Orikhiv (2 wounded), and Druzhkivka (7 wounded), as well as two killed and two wounded in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast. Ballistic missile threats are active, with new alerts for Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Sumy, including high-speed targets on Kyiv. Ground operations are intensely focused on Sieversk and Kupyansk. RF continues to claim significant gains and even UAF surrenders in Kupyansk, while UAF actively denies these claims and demonstrates successful counter-actions; DeepState confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts, though UAF maintains RF lacks "firm control" over the city center. New RF milblogger claims report children being used for sabotage by Ukraine. RF claims "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (with video evidence from "Vostok" Group of Forces and Colonelcassad) and Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (MoD RF claim via TASS and Voenkor Kotenok). Colonelcassad claims "Vostok" Group of Forces has "completely liberated" DNR territory and is now advancing into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. TASS reports Saldo's claim of RF maintaining control over Dnipro delta islands in Kherson Oblast. RF also claims new assaults on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), supported by UAV footage. RF also claims to have neutralized a Bradley IFV and a field ammunition depot with a Fagot ATGM, and to have detained an SBU agent in Kherson Oblast engaged in espionage. UAF reports the destruction of an S-300V SAM system in the Zaporizhzhia direction. UAF demonstrates tactical innovation with ground robotic complexes, secures additional air defense from Nordic/Baltic countries, and maintains significant domestic artillery/drone production. Ukrainian company Fire Point announces development of ballistic missiles (FP-7, FP-9) and air defense systems. Diplomatic and information warfare efforts continue, with UAF securing further Western support and RF attempting to sow discord and amplify anti-Western narratives. Putin concluded his China visit, making several statements regarding Ukraine, NATO, and economic cooperation with China, projecting a dual message of "peace" vs. "military solution." RF is actively conducting artillery strikes in the Kharkiv direction, with confirmed casualties. NATO ISR aircraft activity is reported near Kaliningrad/Belarus border, indicating heightened regional vigilance. European leaders, including Zelenskyy and Macron, are scheduled for a call with Trump, highlighting continued high-level diplomatic engagement. RF IO is heavily pushing narratives of Ukrainian corruption. New RF drone group activity in Chernihiv region, southwestern direction. UAF has successfully downed a "Gerbera with a rear-view camera" drone. UAF successfully destroyed RF D-20 artillery and a 2S3 self-propelled howitzer with drone strikes. New Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast. UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are conducting operations in Sumy Oblast. RF continues to use BM-21 Grad MLRS. Ukraine launches its largest port investment project, indicating economic resilience and long-term planning. Ukrainian forces report Russians are using anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration tactics. RF IO emphasizes Putin's conditional willingness to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow, contrasting with Zelenskyy's statements on Ukraine's "Korean Scenario" and the need for US security guarantees. RF IO also focuses on internal control in Belgorod concerning UAV attack information. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. RF IO is leveraging discussion of a "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF drones originating from Donetsk Oblast are now reported on course for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources continue to claim significant advances in Kupyansk, with UAF sources also confirming RF infiltration and presence, albeit noting a lack of "firm control" over the city center, and indicating fragmented UAF defense. RF UAV group detected in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion). RF military transport aircraft confirmed arriving in North Korea, with coffins draped in North Korean flags visible, suggesting potential military assistance or return of personnel. Explosion heard in Chuhuiv community, Kharkiv Oblast. RF reports five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast. New groups of RF UAVs are inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka. The air raid alert for Odesa and Chornomorsk has been lifted following successful UAF interception of all incoming Shahed UAVs. The Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) continues in Vladivostok. RF is actively promoting a rise in military pensions and a continued increase in the 2026 budget, signaling long-term commitment to military personnel welfare. RF is also discussing financing for new energy generation in the Far East. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine, with Maria Zakharova stating that Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe. Colonelcassad reports a FAB-3000 strike on a UAF Forward Operating Base (FOB). Russian milbloggers "Two Majors" and "Parisan56rus" are providing footage from the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction. Russian milblogger "Operation Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) released a video on "Electronic Warfare (EW) strike" on the Zaporizhzhia front. UAF General Staff provides updated estimated RF combat losses. UAF reports two UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources claim UAF forces are mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson). RF Ministry of Defense claims 46 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea. UK has directed over $1 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Aftermath of drone attack on Odesa: fire in a warehouse, no casualties. Trump states that Putin and Zelenskyy are not yet ready for a peace agreement. RF Ministry of Defense reports an additional four UAVs shot down over Volgograd Oblast. Colonelcassad posts drone footage of high-precision strikes on UAF trench positions by operators of the 5th Army Group "Vostok." Rybar provides a map-based analysis video of RF offensive operations in the Shcherbinovka area (between August 12-31, 2025). TASS reports RF military advances near Chervonaya Dibrova (LNR) and control of 5 hectares of forest near Grigorievka (DNR). Zvиздец Мангусту provides a brief summary from various directions and considerations regarding events on the Dobropillya direction, specifically mentioning the Sieversk (Slavyansk) direction and potential regrouping for the Pokrovsk assault. ASTRA reports China has not confirmed Putin's statements about "Power of Siberia-2." Operatsiya Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports RF air defense shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. Два майора posts a video (18+) with "18th Combined Arms Army" insignia, showing an aerial strike on a small boat with personnel in water. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of enemy UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming that drones attacked 17 Russian oil refineries in August. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, and UAF neutralized 84 of them. Шеф Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Sloviansk and Odesa after night attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction.
NEW: RF Ballistic Missile Strike on Humanitarian Mission (Chernihiv): RF conducted a ballistic missile strike in Chernihiv Oblast, targeting employees of a humanitarian demining mission. Initial reports indicate one fatality and two wounded. Multiple UAF sources, including Operatyvnyi ZSU, STERNENKO, Tsaplienko, and ASTRA confirm this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UAF Aviation Strikes RF Positions: UAF aviation is conducting strikes against RF occupier positions, as observed in drone footage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: "Coalition of the Resolute" Call with Trump: The video call between Trump, Zelenskyy, and European leaders from the "Coalition of the Resolute" has commenced. AFP, RBC-Ukraine, ASTRA, and Operatyvnyi ZSU confirm. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF КАБ Launches on Donetsk Oblast: UAF Air Force reports launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (КАБ) towards Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF Milblogger Claims Whitkoff "Scandalous Escape": RF milblogger "Басурин о главном" claims a "scandalous escape of Whitkoff from the 'coalition of willing' to fight Russia." This is RF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF "Rubikon" PVO Combat Groups with Recon Drones: Colonelcassad posts video of RF "Rubikon" PVO (Air Defense) combat groups operating reconnaissance drones, specifically identified as 'Leleka-100' and 'Chaklun' models. The video shows aerial footage of these drones in flight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Internal RF Sabotage/Arson Incident (Sverdlovsk Oblast): ASTRA reports a neighbor in Sverdlovsk Oblast set fire to the house of an RF war participant, stating, "This is your punishment for your husband killing civilians in the 'SMO'." The video features a woman discussing the incident. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - "Less Money - More Rules" Narrative: Rybar posts a photo message with the caption "Less money - more rules," likely an internal IO piece related to economic policy or resource management. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF Aerial Strike Threat on Sumy Oblast: UAF Air Force issues a warning for Sumy Oblast (Sumy district) regarding a threat of aviation weapon use. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UAF Kharkiv Prosecutor's Office Uncovers New Abuses: The UAF Prosecutor General's Office in Kharkiv Oblast has uncovered new abuses related to "forests, schools, medicine, roads, shelters, 'dead souls', and much more." This indicates ongoing internal investigations into corruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: "Coalition of the Resolute" to Supply Long-Range Missiles to Ukraine: TASS, RBC-Ukraine, STERNENKO, and Operatyvnyi ZSU report that the "Coalition of the Resolute" (or "Coalition of the Willing") is ready to supply long-range missiles to Ukraine, according to Keir Starmer (UK). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - "Cocaine Führer" Rhetoric: Colonelcassad refers to Zelenskyy as a "cocaine Führer" in a commentary regarding the call with Trump. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - France Internal Instability Narrative: Operatsiya Z (via Russkaya Vesna) posts multiple videos portraying France in civil unrest with protests, burning buildings, and riot police, using the hashtag #BloquonsTout, claiming "budgetary economy threatens protests and government collapse." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Mongolian Bubonic Plague Case near RF Border: TASS reports a confirmed case of bubonic plague in Mongolia's Khubsugul region, bordering Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - no military relevance)
NEW: Kyiv Gas Supply Restored: KMVA reports "Kyivgaz" has fully restored gas supply to a damaged building at Zhilyanska St., 34. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - "Vile Attacks" on Border Regions: AV БогомаZ (Bryansk governor) claims "another vile attack by Ukrainian Nazis on our border region." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UAF Children in Underground Schools (Kharkiv): Oleh Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Oblast Administration, posts a video showing children attending school in underground classrooms, highlighting resilience amidst war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - "Hesitant Coalition" Divided: Janus Putkonen (RF-aligned source) reports FT states the "Hesitant Coalition" is divided into three camps. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: EU Commission President Outlines "Coalition of the Resolute" Tasks: RBC-Ukraine reports Ursula von der Leyen outlined three main tasks for the "Coalition of the Resolute" regarding Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - Kaja Kallas Historical Narratives Criticism: Poddubnyi |Z|О|V| edition posts video of Estonian PM Kaja Kallas discussing Russia and China's historical narratives about WWII, implying manipulation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF Military Expert Marochko on Novoselovka (Dnipropetrovsk): TASS reports military expert Marochko states RF liberation of Novoselovka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) allows for a buffer zone near DNR and battles for Zaporizhzhia Oblast settlements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF MOD Claims Sniper Success against UAF Drones (Krasnoarmeysk): MoD Russia claims snipers of the 2nd Combined Arms Army (Tsentr Group of Forces) eliminated over 100 heavy strike drones of the AFU (referring to "Baba-Yaga" drones) in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Berlin Car Incident: TASS reports a BMW in Berlin hit a group of 7-8 year old children. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Kyiv City Military Administration on Assistance: KMVA posts a photo message emphasizing the importance of making assistance accessible and understandable during stress, promoting its "Ye Opora" app. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF Special Forces Radar Operations (Crimea): "Два майора" posts video of mobile radar units from the "Espanola" Marine Special Forces detachment conducting round-the-clock surveillance on Crimean shores to detect Black Sea activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UAF FPV Drone Strike (Kherson): Шеф Hayabusa reports two RF occupiers were eliminated in the Kherson direction by an FPV drone strike, with an image appearing to show the interior of a damaged vehicle. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF MOD Daily Summary: Colonelcassad reports the RF Ministry of Defense daily summary for the SMO as of 04 SEP 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - Yandex Robots in Moscow: Janus Putkonen posts a video titled "Yandex-roboteilla on Moskovassa poikkeuksellista rohkeutta 😂" (Yandex robots in Moscow have exceptional courage), showing Yandex delivery robots navigating obstacles. This is lighthearted RF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF Traffic Stop of "Akhmat Circus" (LNR): Alex Parker Returns posts a video claiming police in LNR stopped a car with "Akhmat Circus" for traffic violations, but after "verbal pressure," the police officer apologized and left, highlighting the perceived power of Kadyrov's forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RF:
UAF:
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Intentions:
Courses of Action (COAs):
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
RF Propaganda:
Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda/IO:
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
Sustained Ground Offensive with Focus on Kupyansk and Dnipropetrovsk Axis, and Preparations for Kherson: RF will commit its main effort to seizing full control of Kupyansk, escalating urban combat and attempting to interdict UAF reinforcements, capitalizing on its confirmed presence and infiltration attempts in the city, and fragmenting UAF defenses. RF will conduct reconnaissance-in-force and likely expand its offensive further into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, solidifying claimed control over Novoselivka, increasing pressure on Velikomikhailovka, and establishing new forward positions. Pressure on the Sieversk salient will be maintained to fix UAF forces. RF will continue to promote claims of UAF surrender and territorial gains through its IO. RF will continue localized ground advances and probing actions in Donetsk and LNR (e.g., forest areas, Chervonaya Dibrova, Grigorievka). RF will likely prepare for offensive operations in the Kherson direction, including securing Dnipro delta islands, exploiting claims of UAF mining Karantynny Island, and interdicting UAF riverine movements. RF will continue localized assaults on the Pokrovsk axis and the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction, utilizing small group tactics and attempting to counter UAF gains. RF will continue active counter-DRG operations in its border regions (Bryansk, Kaluga Oblasts) and within occupied territories. This includes persistent drone-guided strikes against UAF personnel, light vehicles (motorcycles), and armored vehicles (e.g., claimed destruction of PzH 2000). RF will utilize anti-thermal imaging cloaks for covert infiltration. RF will continue to showcase social infrastructure development in occupied territories. RF will aggressively push to consolidate control in Novoselovka, Dnipropetrovsk region, and expand operations further west. RF will likely increase drone (FPV) and kamikaze drone (UAV) strikes against UAF light vehicles, motorcycles, and personnel on the ground. RF will continue to publish daily updates on the "progress of special military operation" to frame the overall narrative of its ground operations. RF will continue to interdict UAF DRG movements, particularly in riverine island zones. RF will maintain localized ground advances in the Sumy direction. RF will seek to identify and destroy high-value UAF artillery systems such as the PzH 2000. RF will leverage Rojin's commentary on the "naval blockade of Odesa" to project capability and strategic intent. RF will also continue its counter-drone operations using snipers and thermal sights, as claimed in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Confidence: HIGH
Adaptive High-Volume Precision and Indiscriminate Strike Campaign: RF will conduct **sustained, high-volume drone and missile strikes, with a heightened focus on defense industry (UAV/artillery electronics, missile R&D facilities), fuel, and railway infrastructure targets across Ukraine, including renewed and adaptive waves against Odesa (despite recent interceptions). Expect continued ballistic missile launches (Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Chernihiv, southern oblasts like Mykolaivka/Tuzly), high-speed targets (Kyiv, Sumy), and КАБ launches (Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy Oblasts), with increased use of heavy glide bombs (FAB-3000) against suspected UAF strongpoints. RF will also continue aerial strikes on UAF riverine/naval assets. RF will continue to test missile/rocket launch capabilities. RF will continue to leverage advanced EW capabilities (Zaporizhzhia front) and precision
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