Archived operational intelligence briefing
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: RF deep strikes continue to target Ukraine's defense industry and railway infrastructure, with a new claimed strategic strike against a UAV/Artillery electronics enterprise in Khmelnytskyi. Civilian targeting remains high, with confirmed deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka, sustained attacks on the Nikopol region and Kharkiv Oblast. Reports of increased casualties in Zaporizhzhia (total 4 wounded), Orikhiv (2 wounded), and Druzhkivka (7 wounded), as well as two killed and two wounded in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast. Ballistic missile threats are active, with new alerts for Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Sumy, including high-speed targets on Kyiv. Ground operations are intensely focused on Sieversk and Kupyansk. RF continues to claim significant gains and even UAF surrenders in Kupyansk, while UAF actively denies these claims and demonstrates successful counter-actions; DeepState confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts, though UAF maintains RF lacks "firm control" over the city center. New RF milblogger claims report children being used for sabotage by Ukraine. RF claims "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (with video evidence from "Vostok" Group of Forces and Colonelcassad) and Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (MoD RF claim via TASS and Voenkor Kotenok). Colonelcassad claims "Vostok" Group of Forces has "completely liberated" DNR territory and is now advancing into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. TASS reports Saldo's claim of RF maintaining control over Dnipro delta islands in Kherson Oblast. RF also claims new assaults on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), supported by UAV footage. RF also claims to have neutralized a Bradley IFV and a field ammunition depot with a Fagot ATGM, and to have detained an SBU agent in Kherson Oblast engaged in espionage. UAF reports the destruction of an S-300V SAM system in the Zaporizhzhia direction. UAF demonstrates tactical innovation with ground robotic complexes, secures additional air defense from Nordic/Baltic countries, and maintains significant domestic artillery/drone production. Ukrainian company Fire Point announces development of ballistic missiles (FP-7, FP-9) and air defense systems. Diplomatic and information warfare efforts continue, with UAF securing further Western support and RF attempting to sow discord and amplify anti-Western narratives. Putin concluded his China visit, making several statements regarding Ukraine, NATO, and economic cooperation with China, projecting a dual message of "peace" vs. "military solution." RF is actively conducting artillery strikes in the Kharkiv direction, with confirmed casualties. NATO ISR aircraft activity is reported near Kaliningrad/Belarus border, indicating heightened regional vigilance. European leaders, including Zelenskyy and Macron, are scheduled for a call with Trump, highlighting continued high-level diplomatic engagement. RF IO is heavily pushing narratives of Ukrainian corruption. New RF drone group activity in Chernihiv region, southwestern direction. UAF has successfully downed a "Gerbera with a rear-view camera" drone. UAF successfully destroyed RF D-20 artillery and a 2S3 self-propelled howitzer with drone strikes. New Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast. UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are conducting operations in Sumy Oblast. RF continues to use BM-21 Grad MLRS. Ukraine launches its largest port investment project, indicating economic resilience and long-term planning. Ukrainian forces report Russians are using anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration tactics. RF IO emphasizes Putin's conditional willingness to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow, contrasting with Zelenskyy's statements on Ukraine's "Korean Scenario" and the need for US security guarantees. RF IO also focuses on internal control in Belgorod concerning UAV attack information. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. RF IO is leveraging discussion of a "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF drones originating from Donetsk Oblast are now reported on course for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources continue to claim significant advances in Kupyansk, with UAF sources also confirming RF infiltration and presence, albeit noting a lack of "firm control" over the city center, and indicating fragmented UAF defense. RF UAV group detected in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion). RF military transport aircraft confirmed arriving in North Korea, with coffins draped in North Korean flags visible, suggesting potential military assistance or return of personnel. Explosion heard in Chuhuiv community, Kharkiv Oblast. RF reports five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast. New groups of RF UAVs are inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka. The air raid alert for Odesa and Chornomorsk has been lifted following successful UAF interception of all incoming Shahed UAVs. The Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) continues in Vladivostok. RF is actively promoting a rise in military pensions and a continued increase in the 2026 budget, signaling long-term commitment to military personnel welfare. RF is also discussing financing for new energy generation in the Far East. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine, with Maria Zakharova stating that Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe. Colonelcassad reports a FAB-3000 strike on a UAF Forward Operating Base (FOB). Russian milbloggers "Two Majors" and "Parisan56rus" are providing footage from the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction. Russian milblogger "Operation Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) released a video on "Electronic Warfare (EW) strike" on the Zaporizhzhia front. UAF General Staff provides updated estimated RF combat losses. UAF reports two UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources claim UAF forces are mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson). RF Ministry of Defense claims 46 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea. UK has directed over $1 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Aftermath of drone attack on Odesa: fire in a warehouse, no casualties. Trump states that Putin and Zelenskyy are not yet ready for a peace agreement. RF Ministry of Defense reports an additional four UAVs shot down over Volgograd Oblast. Colonelcassad posts drone footage of high-precision strikes on UAF trench positions by operators of the 5th Army Group "Vostok." Rybar provides a map-based analysis video of RF offensive operations in the Shcherbinovka area (between August 12-31, 2025). TASS reports RF military advances near Chervonaya Dibrova (LNR) and control of 5 hectares of forest near Grigorievka (DNR). Zvиздец Мангусту provides a brief summary from various directions and considerations regarding events on the Dobropillya direction, specifically mentioning the Sieversk (Slavyansk) direction and potential regrouping for the Pokrovsk assault. ASTRA reports China has not confirmed Putin's statements about "Power of Siberia-2." Operatsiya Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports RF air defense shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. Два майора posts a video (18+) with "18th Combined Arms Army" insignia, showing an aerial strike on a small boat with personnel in water. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of enemy UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming that drones attacked 17 Russian oil refineries in August. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, and UAF neutralized 84 of them. Шеф Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Sloviansk and Odesa after night attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction.
NEW: ZAPORIZHZHIA DAMAGE ASSESSMENT: UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts photo and video messages showing damaged windows and balconies of multi-story buildings and non-residential premises in Zaporizhzhia after an enemy attack. Municipal services are working to clear debris and board up damaged windows with OSB plates. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - YOUTH SABOTAGE NARRATIVE: RF milblogger "Операция Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) posts photo messages from NYT claiming "Children on the front lines of a secret war: NYT revealed how teenagers are used for sabotage." This is an RF IO push. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF CONTROL OF DNIPRO DELTA ISLANDS (KHERSON): TASS reports that Saldo claims RF forces maintain control over islands in the Dnipro delta in Kherson Oblast, and are denying UAF the ability to inflict damage. Video features an interview with Saldo. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: CIVILIAN WATER SHORTAGE (DONETSK): UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts a video from occupied Donetsk depicting long lines of civilians, primarily elderly, waiting for water distribution, and also shows "water marauders" stealing water from barrels. This indicates a severe humanitarian situation in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF ANIMATED STRIKE SCHEME: Colonelcassad posts an animated scheme of RF strikes on Ukrainian territory from 03-04 SEP 25, detailing drone and UMPK glide bomb strikes across Chernihiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UAF COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE SUCCESS (KYIV, LVIV, VOLYN): UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts photo messages claiming the detention of five Russian agents, three of whom are under 18, who were preparing terrorist acts and sabotage in Kyiv, Lviv, and Volyn Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UAF DOMESTIC MISSILE DEVELOPMENT: UAF "STERNENKO" posts a photo message stating that Ukrainian company Fire Point announced the development of FP-7 and FP-9 ballistic missiles, as well as air defense systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF FSB DETAINS SBU AGENT (KHERSON): RF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a video showing the detention of a Ukrainian citizen in Kherson Oblast who allegedly transmitted data on the deployment of Russian military personnel and equipment to the SBU. The detainee confesses in the video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF MORTGAGE RATES: TASS reports that Russian mortgage rates will gradually decrease from their current level of 18%, according to RF Construction Minister Irek Faizullin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ZELENSKYY-WITKOFF MEETING (PARIS): RBC-Ukraine reports that Witkoff and Zelenskyy will hold a meeting in Paris, citing Reuters. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UAF GENERAL STAFF MORALE/IO: UAF General Staff posts multiple photo messages (#Воїни_Думки #Воїни_Слова), featuring portraits and historical/cultural references, likely for morale and information operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UAF DESERTION POLICY REVERSAL: UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a photo message stating that the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) is reinstating criminal liability for unauthorized absence (СЗЧ). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - "TRUMPET CALL" PROPAGANDA: RF "Рыбарь" posts a photo message titled "📝Труба зовет📝," likely an internal IO piece or a cryptic message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF MOD CLAIMS DRG DESTRUCTION (DNIPRO ISLANDS): RF "Военкор Котенок" posts a video claiming the RF Ministry of Defense demonstrates footage of the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG attempting to land on the islands of the Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ASTRA CONFIRMS UAF STRIKES ON CRIMEA BASE: ASTRA posts new satellite images confirming its information about the damage to boats and barracks at a Russian border base in annexed Crimea after a UAF attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF INTENT TO PRESSURE VELIKOMIKHAILOVKA (DNIPROPETROVSK): TASS reports that the "liberation" of Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast allows RF forces to intensify fire pressure on Velikomikhailovka. Kimakovsky, advisor to the DNR head, claims Spanish-speaking mercenaries partially remain in the settlement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UK MILITARY AID FROM FROZEN ASSETS: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports that Britain has directed over £1 billion (1.3 billion $) from frozen Russian assets to military aid for Ukraine, according to Defense Minister John Healey. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - TRUMP DISINFORMATION: UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a photo message with a sarcastic caption in response to a RIA Novosti article, likely mocking RF narratives about Trump. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF SOLAR ACTIVITY REPORT: TASS reports an unusual plasma ejection from the sun, described as a beam, according to the Laboratory of Solar Astronomy of the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - no military relevance)
NEW: UAF POW FAMILY MEETING: The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War posts a photo message about an online meeting with families of servicemen from the 19th Separate Rifle Battalion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF MORTGAGE SUPPORT FOR YOUTH: TASS reports RF Construction Minister Irek Faizullin is considering mortgage support measures for youth. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN ENERGY/ODESA BLOCKADE: Colonelcassad posts a video by Rojin on "Destruction of Ukrainian energy, robodogs and naval blockade of Odesa." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UAF DOMESTIC MISSILE DEVELOPMENT (FLAMINGO): RBC-Ukraine reports the "Flamingo" manufacturer announced development of new missiles with a range of up to 855 km. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UKRAINIAN POLICE ACTIVITY (ROUTINE): Oleksiy Biloshitsky posts a video of Ukrainian police conducting a routine traffic stop. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF INTERNAL SECURITY (MURMANSK ARREST): ASTRA reports a local resident in Murmansk was arrested for donating to the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF HEALTHCARE POLICY (SICK LEAVE): TASS reports the Ministry of Health denied changes to sick leave issuance from September 1st, with changes still under discussion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: "COALITION OF THE RESOLUTE" MEETING CONCLUDES (PARIS): Оперативний ЗСУ reports the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting in Paris concluded, with a call with Trump scheduled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UAF POW FAMILY MEETING (119TH TEROBRIGADE): The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War posts photo messages about a meeting with families of servicemen from the 119th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade of Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - REPUBLIC OF SRPSKA INDEPENDENCE CLAIMS: TASS reports Milorad Dodik stated the Republic of Srpska may declare independence if external pressure intensifies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - MACRON/DUROV CRITICISM: Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message criticizing Macron and Pavel Durov, implying a negative impact of "French influence" or changing identities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UAF STRIKE ON RF TANK/ARTILLERY/ROBOTIC COMPLEX (DONETSK): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming Phoenix unit operators of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) destroyed an RF tank, artillery piece, and ground robotic complex in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: AIR ALERTS (ZAPORIZHZHIA, KYIV, SUMY, CHERNIHIV): UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues a missile alert. KMVA (Kyiv), Air Force, and RBC-Ukraine issue ballistic missile threats for Kyiv, with a high-speed target on Kyiv. RBC-Ukraine reports explosions in Sumy and Chernihiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - BAYRAKTAR IN BALKANS: Rybar posts a photo message titled "Bayraktar in the Balkans," likely discussing strategic implications of drone proliferation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF VIDEO - NOVOSELIVKA (DNIPROPETROVSK) "LIBERATION": TASS posts video footage claiming the liberation of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by RF forces, showing aerial reconnaissance, explosions, military vehicles, and Russian soldiers with a flag. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: GERMANY - CAR INTO CROWD INCIDENT: TASS reports a car drove into a group of people in Berlin, injuring several, including children. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - PROSTHETICS PROGRESS (CRITICAL NARRATIVE): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a video "🤬Тот самый прогресс в протезировании" showing an individual with a prosthetic leg, critical of the narrative of "progress in prosthetics" in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - WHITKOFF/ZELENSKYY DEPARTURE FROM PARIS: Alex Parker Returns posts a video criticizing Whitkoff's and Zelenskyy's quick departure from the Paris meeting, using derogatory language. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF TACTICAL MAP - DONETSK/ZAPORIZHZHIA/DNIPROPETROVSK OFFENSIVE: Colonelcassad posts a tactical map claiming the front line after the "liberation" of the southwestern DNR, showing the offensive continuing into Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF MILITARY PSYCHOLOGICAL SUPPORT GAP: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports 20% of soldiers need psychological support after returning from the SMO, with a shortage of qualified psychologists in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF MILBLOGGER DRONE REQUEST: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of an RF soldier requesting a Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance and artillery spotting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF CIVILIAN EVENT (MOSCOW): Новости Москвы reports registration opened for an autumn cycling festival on September 13th. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UAF IO - RF "OPPOSITION" SOLDIER (MURAT MUKASHEV) LIQUIDATED: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a photo message on Murat Mukashev, an alleged Navalny supporter who opposed the war, was imprisoned for drugs, then joined RF assault troops and was liquidated in Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - "IDIOTS MEETING" (PARIS): Janus Putkonen posts a video titled "Halukkaiden idioottien kokous on alkanut" (Meeting of willing idiots has begun), targeting the Paris meeting with derogatory language, including "MI6's over-corporal A.G. Stubido." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RF:
UAF:
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Intentions:
Courses of Action (COAs):
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
RF Propaganda:
Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda/IO:
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
Sustained Ground Offensive with Focus on Kupyansk and Dnipropetrovsk Axis, and Preparations for Kherson: RF will commit its main effort to seizing full control of Kupyansk, escalating urban combat and attempting to interdict UAF reinforcements, capitalizing on its confirmed presence and infiltration attempts in the city, and fragmenting UAF defenses. RF will conduct reconnaissance-in-force and likely expand its offensive further into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, solidifying claimed control over Novoselivka, increasing pressure on Velikomikhailovka, and establishing new forward positions. Pressure on the Sieversk salient will be maintained to fix UAF forces. RF will continue to promote claims of UAF surrender and territorial gains through its IO. RF will continue localized ground advances and probing actions in Donetsk and LNR (e.g., forest areas, Chervonaya Dibrova, Grigorievka). RF will likely prepare for offensive operations in the Kherson direction, including securing Dnipro delta islands, exploiting claims of UAF mining Karantynny Island, and interdicting UAF riverine movements. RF will continue localized assaults on the Pokrovsk axis and the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction, utilizing small group tactics and attempting to counter UAF gains. RF will continue active counter-DRG operations in its border regions (Bryansk, Kaluga Oblasts) and within occupied territories. This includes persistent drone-guided strikes against UAF personnel, light vehicles (motorcycles), and armored vehicles (e.g., claimed destruction of PzH 2000). RF will utilize anti-thermal imaging cloaks for covert infiltration. RF will continue to showcase social infrastructure development in occupied territories. Confidence: HIGH
Adaptive High-Volume Precision and Indiscriminate Strike Campaign: RF will conduct sustained, high-volume drone and missile strikes, with a heightened focus on defense industry (UAV/artillery electronics, missile R&D facilities), fuel, and railway infrastructure targets across Ukraine, including renewed and adaptive waves against Odesa (despite recent interceptions). Expect continued ballistic missile launches (Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Chernihiv, southern oblasts like Mykolaivka/Tuzly), high-speed targets (Kyiv, Sumy), and КАБ launches (Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy Oblasts), with increased use of heavy glide bombs (FAB-3000) against suspected UAF strongpoints. RF will also continue aerial strikes on UAF riverine/naval assets. RF will continue to leverage advanced EW capabilities (Zaporizhzhia front) and precision loitering munitions (Lancet against UAF radar/artillery) to degrade UAF military assets and C2, including Starlink terminals. RF will continue to expand strike UAV operations in northern regions (Chernihiv, Sumy). Expect continued indiscriminate shelling and drone attacks on civilian population centers (Zaporizhzhia, Orikhiv, Druzhkivka, Kozacha Lopan), resulting in further casualties and disruption of critical services (e.g., power in Sumy). RF will continue to defend its airspace against UAF cross-border UAVs (Rostov Oblast) and respond to any UAF deep strikes (Krasnodar Krai, Rostov Oblast). Confidence: HIGH
Aggressive, Multi-Layered Information Warfare and Diplomatic Offensive: RF IO will heavily amplify claims of successful ground gains and destruction of UAF assets, leveraging official statements and milblogger reports, including tactical maps. Messaging will aggressively promote Russia's diplomatic influence, economic resilience, and a multi-polar world order (China's global leadership, deepening ties with China/DPRK/GCC/Afghanistan), while relentlessly pushing anti-Western rhetoric. Expect narratives to focus on alleged Western disunity and incompetence regarding Ukraine's security guarantees ("Coalition of the Resolute" as "idiots' meeting"), and to exploit internal Western issues (French museum robbery, Berlin car incident) to highlight instability. RF will continue to use Putin's statements threatening to "resort to weapons" as an escalatory warning. RF IO will continue efforts to discredit Ukrainian leadership (Zelenskyy as "dictator") and military (claims of children for sabotage, HIV/Hepatitis units). RF will tighten information control in border regions (Belgorod). RF will engage in retaliatory diplomatic actions (Estonian diplomat expulsion). RF will leverage economic narratives (decreasing mortgage rates, youth support, gas demand) to project internal stability. RF will attempt to sow discord among allies (Kazakh FM detention narrative, later denied by TASS). RF IO will also promote a narrative of state care for veterans (prosthetics as "drivers of progress") and internal social issues (debt relief). Confidence: HIGH
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
Overwhelming Combined Arms Offensive with Escalated Deep Strikes and CBRN Threat: RF initiates a large-scale, coordinated ground offensive across multiple axes in Eastern Ukraine, with the primary effort aimed at a decisive breakthrough and operational encirclement in Donetsk Oblast, supported by simultaneous advances into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts to seize critical industrial infrastructure and sever UAF supply lines. This offensive would be preceded and continuously supported by massive, sustained ballistic and cruise missile strikes, including potentially from newly supplied DPRK systems, and saturation drone attacks (including FPVs and heavy glide bombs like FAB-3000 at unprecedented scale), explicitly targeting UAF C2, air defense nodes, logistics hubs, and defense industrial base assets with the intent to paralyze UAF response. RF special forces would conduct deep-reconnaissance-strike missions on high-value targets (e.g., Flamingo missile development facilities). The MDCOA would incorporate a targeted, limited chemical or biological agent attack against a critical UAF command post or staging area, potentially disguised as a "false flag" to sow panic and confusion, and would be immediately followed by a robust information campaign attributing the attack to Ukraine or Western forces. This offensive would also involve significant amphibious operations in Kherson to secure the Dnipro River islands and establish bridgeheads for further advances, risking a wider, multi-front conflict. Confidence: MEDIUM
Preemptive Cyber-Kinetic Disarmament Strike and Global Destabilization Campaign: RF launches a highly coordinated and overwhelming cyberattack targeting Ukraine's entire critical national infrastructure (energy grid, telecommunications, financial networks, military C2 systems) simultaneously with a barrage of precision-guided munitions (missiles, drones) designed to physically destroy key communication nodes, air defense radars, and command centers. The aim is to achieve a temporary but total "disarmament" of Ukraine's C2 and defensive capabilities. This would be immediately followed by a global information warfare campaign using sophisticated deepfake technology, AI-generated narratives, and weaponized social media to sow widespread panic, delegitimize Ukrainian government communications, and incite internal unrest in Western nations (e.g., exploiting social divisions, promoting anti-NATO narratives, targeting electoral processes). The IO would actively leverage the "youth sabotage" narrative to justify severe actions against Ukrainian civilians. RF would also conduct aggressive cyber operations against NATO and EU networks to disrupt coordination and decision-making during the crisis. This MDCOA seeks to achieve a rapid, non-conventional victory by collapsing Ukraine's ability to resist and fracturing international support through a blend of advanced cyber warfare, precision kinetics, and cognitive manipulation. Confidence: LOW
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
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