Archived operational intelligence briefing
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: RF deep strikes continue to target Ukraine's defense industry and railway infrastructure, with a new claimed strategic strike against a UAV/Artillery electronics enterprise in Khmelnytskyi. Civilian targeting remains high, with confirmed deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka, sustained attacks on the Nikopol region and Kharkiv Oblast. Reports of increased casualties in Zaporizhzhia (total 4 wounded), Orikhiv (2 wounded), and Druzhkivka (7 wounded), as well as two killed and two wounded in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast. Ballistic missile threats are active. Ground operations are intensely focused on Sieversk and Kupyansk. RF continues to claim significant gains and even UAF surrenders in Kupyansk, while UAF actively denies these claims and demonstrates successful counter-actions; DeepState confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts, though UAF maintains RF lacks "firm control" over the city center. New RF milblogger claims report children being used for sabotage by Ukraine. RF claims "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (with video evidence from "Vostok" Group of Forces and Colonelcassad) and Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (MoD RF claim via TASS and Voenkor Kotenok). Colonelcassad claims "Vostok" Group of Forces has "completely liberated" DNR territory and is now advancing into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. TASS reports Saldo's claim of RF maintaining control over Dnipro delta islands in Kherson Oblast. RF also claims new assaults on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), supported by UAV footage. RF also claims to have neutralized a Bradley IFV and a field ammunition depot with a Fagot ATGM, and to have detained an SBU agent in Kherson Oblast engaged in espionage. UAF reports the destruction of an S-300V SAM system in the Zaporizhzhia direction. UAF demonstrates tactical innovation with ground robotic complexes, secures additional air defense from Nordic/Baltic countries, and maintains significant domestic artillery/drone production. Ukrainian company Fire Point announces development of ballistic missiles (FP-7, FP-9) and air defense systems. Diplomatic and information warfare efforts continue, with UAF securing further Western support and RF attempting to sow discord and amplify anti-Western narratives. Putin concluded his China visit, making several statements regarding Ukraine, NATO, and economic cooperation with China, projecting a dual message of "peace" vs. "military solution." RF is actively conducting artillery strikes in the Kharkiv direction, with confirmed casualties. NATO ISR aircraft activity is reported near Kaliningrad/Belarus border, indicating heightened regional vigilance. European leaders, including Zelenskyy and Macron, are scheduled for a call with Trump, highlighting continued high-level diplomatic engagement. RF IO is heavily pushing narratives of Ukrainian corruption. New RF drone group activity in Chernihiv region, southwestern direction. UAF has successfully downed a "Gerbera with a rear-view camera" drone. UAF successfully destroyed RF D-20 artillery and a 2S3 self-propelled howitzer with drone strikes. New Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast. UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are conducting operations in Sumy Oblast. RF continues to use BM-21 Grad MLRS. Ukraine launches its largest port investment project, indicating economic resilience and long-term planning. Ukrainian forces report Russians are using anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration tactics. RF IO emphasizes Putin's conditional willingness to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow, contrasting with Zelenskyy's statements on Ukraine's "Korean Scenario" and the need for US security guarantees. RF IO also focuses on internal control in Belgorod concerning UAV attack information. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. RF IO is leveraging discussion of a "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF drones originating from Donetsk Oblast are now reported on course for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources continue to claim significant advances in Kupyansk, with UAF sources also confirming RF infiltration and presence, albeit noting a lack of "firm control" over the city center, and indicating fragmented UAF defense. RF UAV group detected in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion). RF military transport aircraft confirmed arriving in North Korea, with coffins draped in North Korean flags visible, suggesting potential military assistance or return of personnel. Explosion heard in Chuhuiv community, Kharkiv Oblast. RF reports five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast. New groups of RF UAVs are inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka. The air raid alert for Odesa and Chornomorsk has been lifted following successful UAF interception of all incoming Shahed UAVs. The Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) continues in Vladivostok. RF is actively promoting a rise in military pensions and a continued increase in the 2026 budget, signaling long-term commitment to military personnel welfare. RF is also discussing financing for new energy generation in the Far East. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine, with Maria Zakharova stating that Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe. Colonelcassad reports a FAB-3000 strike on a UAF Forward Operating Base (FOB). Russian milbloggers "Two Majors" and "Parisan56rus" are providing footage from the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction. Russian milblogger "Operation Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) released a video on "Electronic Warfare (EW) strike" on the Zaporizhzhia front. UAF General Staff provides updated estimated RF combat losses. UAF reports two UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources claim UAF forces are mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson). RF Ministry of Defense claims 46 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea. UK has directed over $1 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Aftermath of drone attack on Odesa: fire in a warehouse, no casualties. Trump states that Putin and Zelenskyy are not yet ready for a peace agreement. RF Ministry of Defense reports an additional four UAVs shot down over Volgograd Oblast. Colonelcassad posts drone footage of high-precision strikes on UAF trench positions by operators of the 5th Army Group "Vostok." Rybar provides a map-based analysis video of RF offensive operations in the Shcherbinovka area (between August 12-31, 2025). TASS reports RF military advances near Chervonaya Dibrova (LNR) and control of 5 hectares of forest near Grigorievka (DNR). Zvиздец Мангусту provides a brief summary from various directions and considerations regarding events on the Dobropillya direction, specifically mentioning the Sieversk (Slavyansk) direction and potential regrouping for the Pokrovsk assault. ASTRA reports China has not confirmed Putin's statements about "Power of Siberia-2." Operatsiya Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports RF air defense shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. Два майора posts a video (18+) with "18th Combined Arms Army" insignia, showing an aerial strike on a small boat with personnel in water. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of enemy UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming that drones attacked 17 Russian oil refineries in August. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, and UAF neutralized 84 of them. Шеф Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Sloviansk and Odesa after night attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction.
NEW: ZAPORIZHZHIA DAMAGE ASSESSMENT: UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts photo and video messages showing damaged windows and balconies of multi-story buildings and non-residential premises in Zaporizhzhia after an enemy attack. Municipal services are working to clear debris and board up damaged windows with OSB plates. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - YOUTH SABOTAGE NARRATIVE: RF milblogger "Операция Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) posts photo messages from NYT claiming "Children on the front lines of a secret war: NYT revealed how teenagers are used for sabotage." This is an RF IO push. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF CONTROL OF DNIPRO DELTA ISLANDS (KHERSON): TASS reports that Saldo claims RF forces maintain control over islands in the Dnipro delta in Kherson Oblast, and are denying UAF the ability to inflict damage. Video features an interview with Saldo. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: CIVILIAN WATER SHORTAGE (DONETSK): UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts a video from occupied Donetsk depicting long lines of civilians, primarily elderly, waiting for water distribution, and also shows "water marauders" stealing water from barrels. This indicates a severe humanitarian situation in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF ANIMATED STRIKE SCHEME: Colonelcassad posts an animated scheme of RF strikes on Ukrainian territory from 03-04 SEP 25, detailing drone and UMPK glide bomb strikes across Chernihiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UAF COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE SUCCESS (KYIV, LVIV, VOLYN): UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts photo messages claiming the detention of five Russian agents, three of whom are under 18, who were preparing terrorist acts and sabotage in Kyiv, Lviv, and Volyn Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UAF DOMESTIC MISSILE DEVELOPMENT: UAF "STERNENKO" posts a photo message stating that Ukrainian company Fire Point announced the development of FP-7 and FP-9 ballistic missiles, as well as air defense systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF FSB DETAINS SBU AGENT (KHERSON): RF "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a video showing the detention of a Ukrainian citizen in Kherson Oblast who allegedly transmitted data on the deployment of Russian military personnel and equipment to the SBU. The detainee confesses in the video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF MORTGAGE RATES: TASS reports that Russian mortgage rates will gradually decrease from their current level of 18%, according to RF Construction Minister Irek Faizullin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ZELENSKYY-WITKOFF MEETING (PARIS): RBC-Ukraine reports that Witkoff and Zelenskyy will hold a meeting in Paris, citing Reuters. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UAF GENERAL STAFF MORALE/IO: UAF General Staff posts multiple photo messages (#Воїни_Думки #Воїни_Слова), featuring portraits and historical/cultural references, likely for morale and information operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UAF DESERTION POLICY REVERSAL: UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a photo message stating that the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) is reinstating criminal liability for unauthorized absence (СЗЧ). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - "TRUMPET CALL" PROPAGANDA: RF "Рыбарь" posts a photo message titled "📝Труба зовет📝," likely an internal IO piece or a cryptic message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF MOD CLAIMS DRG DESTRUCTION (DNIPRO ISLANDS): RF "Военкор Котенок" posts a video claiming the RF Ministry of Defense demonstrates footage of the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG attempting to land on the islands of the Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ASTRA CONFIRMS UAF STRIKES ON CRIMEA BASE: ASTRA posts new satellite images confirming its information about the damage to boats and barracks at a Russian border base in annexed Crimea after a UAF attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF INTENT TO PRESSURE VELIKOMIKHAILOVKA (DNIPROPETROVSK): TASS reports that the "liberation" of Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast allows RF forces to intensify fire pressure on Velikomikhailovka. Kimakovsky, advisor to the DNR head, claims Spanish-speaking mercenaries partially remain in the settlement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UK MILITARY AID FROM FROZEN ASSETS: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports that Britain has directed over £1 billion (1.3 billion $) from frozen Russian assets to military aid for Ukraine, according to Defense Minister John Healey. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO - TRUMP DISINFORMATION: UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a photo message with a sarcastic caption in response to a RIA Novosti article, likely mocking RF narratives about Trump. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF SOLAR ACTIVITY REPORT: TASS reports an unusual plasma ejection from the sun, described as a beam, according to the Laboratory of Solar Astronomy of the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - no military relevance)
NEW: UAF POW FAMILY MEETING: The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War posts a photo message about an online meeting with families of servicemen from the 19th Separate Rifle Battalion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RF:
UAF:
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Intentions:
Courses of Action (COAs):
Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
Medium Term (2-7 days):
ISR Priority for Kupyansk (CRITICAL), Donetsk Oblast (RF Regrouping/New Offensive - CRITICAL), Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts), Yanvarske, Velikomikhailovka (Dnipropetrovsk), NEW UAV/MISSILE LAUNCH AREAS/TACTICS (Including Saturation Attacks, Rubikon Groups - targeting Starlink and armored vehicles, UAV Launch Point Targeting, Northern Sumy to Chernihiv Route, Ballistic Missiles from NE/SOUTH, High-Speed Targets on Sumy, КАБ on Zaporizhzhia/Kharkiv Oblast, FAB-3000 Strikes, RF Cross-Border UAV Activity, Dnipro Riverine Operations, ZALA Lancet Strikes, Bryansk Border Region Activity, Repeat Ballistic Launches on Tuzly, RF Radar Strikes in Rostov, RF Helicopter Strikes on UAV C2, Kamikaze Drone Strikes on Personnel/Motorcycles), Anti-Thermal Cloaks, RF IO "09 09 25" Graphic, RF-DPRK Military Transport, RF Internal Security Incidents (Volgograd/Sochi, Scammers, Yakutia Mine, Burning Man Death, Bicycle Theft), RF-China Military IO (Including "Power of Siberia-2" Spin), RF-GCC Dialogue, and RF Internal Welfare/Economic IO (VTB Deposit Growth, Humanitarian Aid, Gas Demand Statements, Mortgage Rates), NATO Exercises (Namejs 2025), RF IO on Religious/Caucasus Issues, RF EW Capabilities on Zaporizhzhia Front, RF Milblogger Activity (Including WarGonzo, Zvиздец Мангусту, Lyman Direction, Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka), Шеф Hayabusa Video, Trump's Peace Stance, Saldo's Corruption Claims, German Politics/Taurus Missiles, Putin's Vladivostok Activities/Infrastructure Launches, Aeroflot Airport Costs, Kotsnews/Macron IO, 155th Marine Brigade Museum, Aviakhab Book, SIM Card Regulations, Exoskeleton Tech, Romania/Moldova IO, SBU Agent Detention, Germany-Poland Troop Movement, RF Economic Stagnation/Ruble Devaluation, RF Units with HIV/Hepatitis, Mykolaiv Water Supply, Kyiv SIZO Investigation, RF DRG Operations in Bryansk and Kaluga Oblasts, RF Special Forces Reconnaissance, Google/YouTube Outages, Janus Putkonen IO, RF Claims on Peace Desire, RF Nuclear Support Day IO, Filimonov IO, German Aid Package to Ukraine, Medvedev's Threats, Civilian Casualties in Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv/Druzhkivka/Kozacha Lopan, Uniqlo Return IO, RF Patriotic Education, Detention Conditions of Ukrainians in Russia, Psychologists' Activities Bill, ОТУ "Харків" Reports, Kazakh FM Detention Disinformation, Estonian Diplomat Expulsion, Coalition of the Willing Outcomes, UAF SBU Agent Arrests, RF Daily Progress Reports, AFGHANISTAN EARTHQUAKE, MOSCOW HEATING, ACOUSTIC DRONE RECOGNITION, RF FAR EAST ENERGY STRATEGY, NEW GERMAN INTELLIGENCE CHIEF, DNIPRO DELTA ISLANDS (KHERSON), WATER SHORTAGES (DONETSK), RF IO - YOUTH SABOTAGE NARRATIVE, RF IO - CHINA GLOBAL LEADERSHIP, UAF DOMESTIC MISSILE DEVELOPMENT): Immediately task all-source ISR to establish definitive ground truth on RF control and infiltration in Kupyansk, providing real-time intelligence for UAF counter-attacks and interdiction of reinforcements. CRITICAL PRIORITY: Intensify ISR on Donetsk Oblast to monitor the scale, composition, and axes of the "largest regrouping since 2022" and the reported "new offensive" by Russia. Prioritize identifying RF command and control nodes, logistical hubs, and troop concentrations to enable preemptive and disruptive strikes. Simultaneously, maintain high-priority ISR on Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), and Yanvarske to assess claimed RF advances and potential for deep penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, especially towards Velikomikhailovka. Elevate ISR on the Pokrovsk axis to detect and interdict unconventional infiltration attempts and document civilian damage, particularly in the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction. CRITICAL PRIORITY: Intensify ISR on the Kherson direction, specifically Karantynny Island and its approaches, to verify RF claims of UAF mining and assess any indications of imminent RF offensive operations, including potential amphibious landing zones or river crossing preparations, and to verify RF claims of control over Dnipro delta islands. Prioritize tracking ALL new RF UAV/misile launch areas and adaptive tactics, especially any new waves targeting Odesa, and urgently track ballistic missile launches (northeast and south directions, including repeat launches on Tuzly), high-speed targets (Sumy), and КАБ launches (Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv Oblast) to determine intent and likely targets, and provide immediate BDA for confirmed strikes. Conduct urgent technical analysis and ISR on the newly identified "Rubikon" air defense combat groups, specifically identifying the operational roles of the Leleka-100, RQ-35 Heidrun, Vector, and VT-260 drones, to develop effective countermeasures, particularly for Starlink terminals and armored vehicles. Conduct immediate BDA and assessment of the ЛМУР strike on the UAF UAV launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade, identifying the type of UAVs and equipment lost and any residual operational impact. Conduct immediate BDA for the FAB-3000 strike on the UAF PVD to determine casualties and damage. Actively monitor for RF use of anti-thermal imaging cloaks across all sectors, developing rapid detection and targeting solutions. Initiate immediate collection on the ambiguous "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic from Alex Parker Returns for any associated activity, to preemptively identify potential cyber or information operations targeting Western or Ukrainian interests. Conduct urgent and comprehensive ISR on the RF military transport to North Korea to identify cargo, personnel exchanges, and the nature of deepening military cooperation. Monitor and analyze any further RF internal security incidents, particularly those affecting airports (e.g., Volgograd, Sochi) and the reported increase in scammer activity (Nemkin), and the mine collapse in Yakutia, and the Simonenko appeal against dismissal, and bicycle theft in Khabarovsk Krai, and the Omks native killed at Burning Man for potential IO exploitation. Conduct deep analysis of RF IO on China's military parade and its links to Taiwan to understand the broader geopolitical narratives being pushed and their implications for the anti-Western axis, including the lack of confirmation for "Power of Siberia-2" and the new RF IO regarding China's global leadership. Elevate collection on the upcoming RF-GCC strategic dialogue, particularly for any military cooperation or arms deals. Intensify monitoring of RF internal IO regarding military pensions (including Mironov's proposal for working pensioners and Slutsky's family credit rates), economic stability (CBRF key rate, Far East energy funding, foreign currency sales, all-Russia energy meeting, Rosenergoatom Primorye branch, low-carbon generation in Far East, energy cost monitoring, Rosseti investments in DFO, Rosatom borrowing for NPPs, gold tokenization, remote biometric sales, Minfin stance on cashless payments, VTB projected bank deposit growth, Aeroflot airport costs, MinEconomDev Reshetnikov's statements on cooling economy, Uniqlo return, Putin's statements on growing gas demand, mortgage rates), and any cultural events (Alexandrov Ensemble rehearsals, Basurin's historical posts, Moscow "Open Water" festival, Putin with cadets) at the EEF to understand internal messaging and morale. Monitor RF IO concerning LNR social objects and the Khabarovsk governor's openness to ExxonMobil. Prioritize tracking the new RF UAV group from northern Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast, identifying its trajectory, potential targets, and any associated ground force movements. Monitor the GTLC Baikal aircraft contract for any military or dual-use implications. Monitor RF statements and ISR on NATO's Namejs 2025 exercises in Latvia for any indications of RF response, counter-activity, or propaganda aimed at NATO cohesion. Intensify collection on RF IO related to religious issues (Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra) and diplomatic maneuvering in the Caucasus (Azerbaijan, OSCE Minsk Group) to anticipate future narratives and potential hybrid actions. Prioritize collection on RF EW capabilities, specifically those highlighted on the Zaporizhzhia front, to identify systems, tactics, and their effectiveness against UAF drones. Actively monitor RF milblogger channels ("Two Majors," "Fighterbomber," "Paratrooper's Diary," "Operation Z," WarGonzo, Zvиздец Мангусту, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews, Воин DV, Басурин о главном, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) for real-time tactical insights, confirmed engagements, and emerging IO narratives, paying close attention to reports from the Pokrovsk, Lyman and Dnepropetrovsk directions, as well as new RF ground advances near Chervonaya Dibrova and Grigorievka. Conduct BDA for the RF claim of 46 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea, and assess any implications for UAF cross-border operations. Intensify ISR on Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" rocket/misile launches to determine their nature (military/civilian/test) and potential strategic implications. Immediately verify reports of RF advances and encirclements in Shcherbinovka and their impact on UAF dispositions. Continue to monitor RF FPV drone strikes in the Sumy border region and their effectiveness against UAF vehicles. Prioritize BDA for the Odesa warehouse fire and damage in Sloviansk and other Odesa areas. Conduct immediate analysis of Шеф Hayabusa's video from Krasny Sulin, Rostov Oblast, for any indicators of military activity, air defense operations, or staging. Investigate the RF strike on the boat in the Dnipro for tactical implications and to identify the nature of the targeted vessel/personnel. Closely monitor Trump's statements on peace readiness and his relationships with Putin, Xi, and Kim, and Saldo's claims of Ukrainian corruption, and RF SVR claims about German politicians (Merz, Taurus), and Kotsnews' IO on "Strength of Siberia-2" and Macron, for their impact on the information environment. Immediately assess information from UAF's captured RF assault trooper for intelligence on RF unit dispositions, morale, and tactics. Conduct BDA on the drone bombardment by the 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade in Zaporizhzhia and the UAF drone artillery strike on RF vehicles. Analyze Colonelcassad's video of "First Tank Army" activity for immediate tactical insights. Assess the impact of UAF attacks on RF oil refineries in August. Monitor Putin's activities in Vladivostok. Conduct ISR on UAF aviation strikes against RF drone operator locations. Monitor RF claims of 50 Ukrainian drones shot down. Assess RF IO concerns about UAF ground-based cruise missiles. Monitor TASS reports on Putin visiting the 155th Marine Brigade museum and interactive zone. Analyze the content of Aviakhab's book by the military pilot for insights into RF military culture and morale. Monitor Госдума discussions on SIM card ownership. Assess RF IO use of the "Ant" exoskeleton video for technological projections. Monitor Рыбарь's geopolitical IO regarding Romania and Moldova. Collect details on the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment's crowdfunding efforts. Prioritize collection on RF ATGM deployments and effectiveness, particularly those claiming to neutralize Western-supplied IFVs. Intensify ISR on RF UAV operator training, noting unit affiliations and locations, to understand RF adaptation in drone warfare. Monitor RF internal economic reporting from EEF and TASS, specifically on "technical stagnation" and ruble weakening, to gauge internal vulnerabilities. Collect and analyze information on Z-propagandist Kashevarova's claims regarding the formation of units from military personnel with hepatitis and HIV, assessing its impact on RF public perception and international human rights concerns. Conduct immediate ISR on the claimed RF assault on Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Confirm UAF reported losses on the Pokrovsk direction. Conduct immediate ISR on RF DRG operations in Bryansk, including claimed capture and railway sabotage. Conduct ISR on RF special forces reconnaissance operations, particularly west of Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Monitor Google/YouTube outages for any potential RF cyber activity or IO exploitation. Monitor RF diplomatic engagements with Afghanistan. Conduct detailed BDA on civilian casualties in Zaporizhzhia (4 wounded) and Orikhiv (2 wounded from utility vehicle attack) due to RF strikes. Monitor the implementation and impact of the German aid package for Ukraine (AD and four mechanized brigades). Monitor Medvedev's threats to seize British Crown valuables. Monitor RF IO regarding Uniqlo's potential return to Russia. Conduct ISR on RF's military-patriotic education initiatives, including Putin's tours of such centers. Monitor NATO ISR flights near Russia's northwestern borders (e.g., Spanish Air Force) for potential shifts in reconnaissance patterns. Conduct immediate BDA for the reported UAF strike on six hovercraft in Crimea by "Flamingo" cruise missiles. Prioritize ISR on the 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 29th Army, following their claimed role in Novoselivka. Collect intelligence from ОТУ "Харків" on the immediate situation in Kharkiv Oblast. CRITICAL PRIORITY: Conduct immediate ISR on the claimed "complete liberation of DNR territory" and the purported continued RF offensive into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts to verify actual control and identify RF force concentrations. Conduct immediate BDA for 7 wounded in Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, and 2 killed, 2 wounded in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast, due to RF strikes. Monitor RF DDoS attacks on EEF resources for any indicators of attribution or new cyber tactics. Analyze Kotsnews videos of Ukrainian and RF artillery for battlefield dynamics. Conduct immediate BDA for the Ukrainian "Bulava" drone strike on an RF military vehicle in Debaltseve. Monitor Oleg Synegubov's working trip to Kupyansk for any real-time intelligence on RF positions and UAF responses. Immediately verify the new missile alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. **CRITICAL PRIORITY: Immediately verify RF claims of control over Novoselovka, Dnipropetrovsk region. Conduct immediate BDA for artillery impacts on a bridge/infrastructure and a settlement, as seen in the RF milblogger videos, to determine if these are UAF systems or misattributed RF strikes. Assess the tactical implications of reported UAF DRGs operating in Kaluga Oblast for RF internal security and potential UAF deep operations. Prioritize intelligence collection on the "Flamingo" manufacturer's announced development of FP-7 and FP-9 ballistic missiles and air defense systems, including timelines and potential for foreign assistance. Monitor UAF General Staff photos for insights into riverine training and special operations. Conduct immediate BDA for the claimed destruction of 6 AFU armored vehicles and 3 Starlink stations by "Rubikon" operators. Verify and assess the reported kamikaze drone strike on an RF occupier on a motorcycle. Analyze MoD Russia's "progress of special military operation" report for immediate shifts in RF narrative. Conduct immediate BDA of the Russian strike on critical infrastructure in Sumy, assessing the extent of damage and expected duration of power outages. Immediately verify the TASS report denying the Kazakh Foreign Minister's detention and analyze its impact on previous RF IO narratives. Monitor Colonelcassad's videos of Putin remotely launching infrastructure projects for dual-use implications and political messaging. Analyze the implications of Russia's expulsion of an Estonian diplomat. Monitor the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting in Paris for confirmed aid and security guarantees, and counter RF milblogger attempts to undermine it. Verify the details and implications of UAF SBU arrests of 5 RF agents for arson/sabotage. Monitor and analyze the KMVA civil defense training photos for indicators of UAF preparedness and inter-agency coordination. Prioritize collection on Dutch acoustic drone recognition systems for potential UAF application. Monitor RF Far East energy strategy changes for long-term implications, especially the expansion of coal generation. Collect details on RF FPV drone strikes on UAF DRGs in the Dnipro island zone. Monitor RF claimed advances in Yunakovka, Sumy direction, and the nature of RF military assets present. Conduct BDA for claimed destruction of UAF PzH 2000 howitzer. Track UAF desertion policy changes for impact on manpower and morale. Analyze RF IO regarding debt relief measures. Collect and analyze RF IO regarding Germany's potential non-participation in a military mission in Ukraine. Monitor RF IO regarding new German intelligence chief. ** (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Aggressive Counter-Attacks and Reinforcements in Kupyansk (CRITICAL), Donetsk Oblast (RF Offensive - CRITICAL), Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts), Yanvarske, Enhance Counter-Infiltration Tactics, and Leverage All-Domain Assets - INCLUDING KHERSION DEFENSIVE MEASURES: Immediately commit tactical reserves and robust fire support (artillery, HIMARS, BM-21 Grad counter-battery) to decisively counter RF advances in Kupyansk, Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts), and Yanvarske, with explicit orders to deny consolidation and disrupt westward movement, and prevent further pressure on Velikomikhailovka. CRITICAL ACTION: Given the largest RF regrouping since 2022 and the reported new offensive, immediately reinforce UAF positions across Donetsk Oblast with all available resources. Implement deep defensive lines, prepare for large-scale counter-attacks, and prioritize interdicting RF advance routes with precision fires. Refine and disseminate TTPs for countering small-group infiltration (Pokrovsk) and specifically develop rapid counter-tactics against anti-thermal imaging cloaks, prioritizing protection for drone operators and mortar teams. Accelerate operational deployment of ground robotic complexes ("NC13"). Systematically target RF artillery (D-20, 2S3, 2S19 Msta-S, BM-21 Grad, 2S44 Giatsint-K), armored vehicles (BTR-82, Bradley IFV), UAV warehouses, UAV command posts (especially in Kupyansk), and fortifications using drone and precision artillery strikes. Prioritize the defense and hardening of UAV launch points. Provide all necessary support (ISR, fire, logistical) to UAF special forces in Sumy Oblast. Enhance counter-mobility operations to target RF engineering vehicles. Maintain intense pressure on RF elements in the Pokrovsk area, including the 506th Regiment and in the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction. Review and adapt defensive measures against the use of heavy unguided aerial bombs (FAB-3000) against UAF PVDs and troop concentrations, considering dispersal and hardening of forward positions. CRITICAL ACTION: Given RF claims of UAF mining Karantynny Island, immediately enhance defensive preparations in Kherson, including counter-mobility obstacles, increased ISR coverage, and pre-positioned fire support, to thwart any potential RF offensive across the Dnipro or attempts to exploit perceived UAF defensive measures, and to challenge RF claims of control over Dnipro delta islands. Increase the use of drone-guided ordnance, as demonstrated by "Shadow Unit," to target RF positions. Conduct immediate counter-offensives or reinforcement operations in the Shcherbinovka area to break any RF encirclements and stabilize the front. Actively counter any new RF ground advances near Chervonaya Dibrova and Grigorievka. Implement enhanced riverine patrols and defensive measures on the Dnipro to counter RF operations against small watercraft. Intensify UAF drone training for counter-drone operations, detection, and camouflage. Leverage captured RF assault trooper for intelligence and IO against RF forces. Actively repel RF assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, as reported by UAF General Staff, to prevent new penetrations. Continue to strike enemy deployment locations, firing positions, and rear areas in Southern Ukraine, leveraging mortar and artillery fire. Continue to document and highlight alleged Russian child abduction and military indoctrination for international audiences. Focus on developing and deploying UAF ground-based cruise missiles to counter RF deep strike capabilities, if technically feasible, to address RF IO concerns. Prioritize the interdiction of RF ground assaults on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) with all available indirect and direct fire assets to prevent a westward push into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Enhance anti-tank defenses and training in sectors facing RF ATGM threats. Continue to aggressively target and destroy RF SAM systems, as demonstrated by the destruction of the S-300V in Zaporizhzhia, to degrade RF air defense capabilities. Counter RF use of incendiary mixtures in LNR if confirmed. Enhance counter-DRG capabilities in border regions, including in response to reported DRG searches in Kaluga Oblast. Protect UAF forward operating bases (PVDs) and communication antennas from targeted RF strikes. Utilize UAF MiG-29s for targeted aerial strikes on confirmed occupier positions. Maintain robust defenses in the Lyman direction. Respond to and neutralize repeat ballistic missile launches on Tuzly. Continue UAF deep strike operations against RF radar complexes in Rostov, as likely occurred overnight, to degrade RF ISR and air defense. Maintain active defense and counter-battery fire in Kharkiv Oblast, as reported by ОТУ "Харків." Actively target and exploit damage to RF hovercraft in Crimea. CRITICAL PRIORITY: Launch immediate, decisive counter-operations to deny RF claims of "complete liberation of DNR territory" and halt their offensive into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Focus on containing RF forces at Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk) and Novoselovka (Zaporizhzhia) and preventing further westward advances. Reaffirm UAF control over these areas with clear, verifiable evidence. Intensify counter-battery fire in Zaporizhzhia to disrupt RF drone-guided artillery. Deploy tactical reserves to reinforce the eastern front and repel any large-scale offensive operations. Implement enhanced security and fire support around Kupyansk, informed by Oleg Synegubov's assessments. Respond aggressively to any confirmed RF territorial gains in LNR (e.g., forest areas). CRITICAL PRIORITY: Immediately commit reserves and fire support to repel any RF advance in Novoselovka, Dnipropetrovsk region, and deny consolidation of claimed control. Intensify counter-battery fire and drone operations to degrade RF artillery capabilities, particularly against critical infrastructure and settlements, as observed in the RF milblogger videos. Enhance counter-DRG measures and border security in Kaluga Oblast and other RF-bordering regions to intercept and neutralize UAF special forces infiltration attempts. Prioritize the protection of Starlink terminals and armored vehicles from RF drone strikes by employing active countermeasures, camouflage, and dispersal. Investigate and counter the threat posed by "BABA-YAGA" drones. Enhance force protection measures against kamikaze drone attacks on personnel and light vehicles, particularly in forward areas. Reinforce UAF positions and defense-in-depth on the Zaporizhzhia direction, preparing for potential RF ground offensives. Actively counter RF FPV drone operations targeting UAF DRGs in riverine island zones. Enhance counter-infiltration measures in the Sumy direction, particularly around Yunakovka. Implement active hunting and destruction of RF PzH 2000 howitzers and similar high-value artillery assets. Accelerate the process for personnel returning to service after unauthorized absence, as simplified. Continue efforts to combat officials supplying polymer products to Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Accelerate Air Defense Modernization, Munition Resupply, and EW (CRITICAL URGENCY), Counter-FPV/Advanced Drones, Protect Defense Industry and Educational Facilities, Strengthen Civilian Protection (CRITICAL URGENCY for Odesa - though threat neutralized, this remains high priority for future attacks) and Ballistic Missile Threats: Conduct immediate, comprehensive review of air defense dispositions, prioritizing systems for critical defense industry, railway/bridge infrastructure, and population centers across all affected oblasts. Despite the recent successful neutralization of UAV threats against Odesa and other regions, continue to prioritize reinforcement of air defense for Odesa and its critical port infrastructure, preparing for future waves of Shahed drones and adaptive RF tactics. CRITICAL URGENCY: Immediately reassess air defense strategies and resources following the saturation attack of 112 UAVs and the 28 successful penetrations. Prioritize rapid deployment of additional AD assets, including newly secured systems, to fill gaps and enhance multi-layered defense against high-volume attacks. Intensify coordination for urgent replenishment of interceptors and fast-track establishment of new missile/drone/fuel production capabilities in Denmark. Prioritize training for new EW/SHORAD systems and rapid counter-measures for adapted RF drones, including those identified in the "Rubikon" air defense combat groups. Urgently develop and deploy counter-FPV drone capabilities and enhanced physical/air defense security for defense industry sites and educational facilities. Leverage successful UAF strikes on RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar for intelligence on RF air defense vulnerabilities. Dedicate significant air defense resources to track and neutralize the new RF UAV group detected in northern Sumy Oblast, targeting Chernihiv Oblast. Immediately activate all ballistic missile warning systems and deploy interceptor assets to counter the new ballistic missile threats from the northeast and south (Tuzly/Mykolaivka), and high-speed targets on Sumy. Enhance air defense coverage for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Kharkiv Oblast to counter КАБ launches. Develop rapid response protocols for FAB-3000 attacks on ground positions, including early warning and shelters. Urgently enhance UAF EW capabilities, especially on the Zaporizhzhia front, to counter and jam RF drones and prevent them from operating freely. Accelerate the development and deployment of counter-UAS platforms specifically designed to defeat RF EW-hardened drones. Maintain high vigilance and readiness for any renewed RF UAV activity over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, learning from the recent successful interceptions. Continue to monitor RF air defense actions against UAF cross-border UAVs to identify vulnerabilities or new RF defensive capabilities. Accelerate the hardening and dispersion of critical infrastructure in Odesa, particularly warehouses and port facilities, given the recent drone strike. Strengthen air defense against drone attacks in Kharkiv Oblast. Continue to develop and deploy offensive drone capabilities to strike RF oil refineries and other strategic targets. Actively conduct aviation strikes against RF drone operator locations, as demonstrated by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, to degrade RF UAV capabilities. Maintain high vigilance for incoming RF strike UAVs in Chernihiv and Kyiv Oblasts. Review and enhance counter-drone tactics based on RF claims of shooting down Ukrainian drones. Immediately conduct BDA on the destroyed S-300V SAM system in Zaporizhzhia to assess its impact on RF air defense and develop strategies to exploit this vulnerability. Prioritize air defense of civilian population centers in Kharkiv Oblast, given the recent fatal strikes. Maintain high vigilance for UAV activity in the Black Sea near Odesa. Ensure prompt and accurate public warnings for ballistic missile threats. Strengthen air defense in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast against Lancet drone attacks. Implement enhanced civilian protection measures in Zaporizhzhia city (4 wounded) and Orikhiv (2 wounded) in response to confirmed drone strikes and civilian casualties. Expedite the delivery and integration of Germany's proposed air defense enhancements for Ukraine. Develop immediate counter-measures against RF helicopter strikes on UAV command posts, particularly in Kupyansk, to protect critical C2 nodes. Intensify air defense measures in Crimea to counter "Flamingo" cruise missiles and defend naval assets. CRITICAL PRIORITY: Rapidly deploy additional air defense systems to protect civilian population centers in Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast, in response to new casualties. Maintain high readiness for immediate response to the new missile alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Develop and implement enhanced countermeasures against RF artillery strikes on UAF self-propelled howitzers and other assets, particularly in Zaporizhzhia. Enhance UAF drone operations to counter RF drone reconnaissance and strikes, particularly against RF military vehicles. **CRITICAL PRIORITY: Rapidly deploy air defense assets to counter new RF UAV threats in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts. Accelerate the development and production of indigenous ballistic missiles (FP-7, FP-9) and air defense systems, leveraging this announcement for international support and deterring RF aggression. Develop countermeasures for RF artillery systems (e.g., Malva/Bohdana if this refers to RF systems, or countering similar RF assets). Immediately assess and address the impact of the Russian strike on critical infrastructure in Sumy, prioritizing restoration of electricity and identifying vulnerabilities. Conduct immediate threat assessment and vulnerability analysis for acoustic drone recognition systems, as reported from the Netherlands, to develop countermeasures. Mitigate any operational impact of heavy fog on air defense systems. Ensure continued civilian protection measures for Zaporizhzhia after air raid alerts are lifted. Implement KMVA civil defense training protocols at tactical and operational levels. Focus on mitigating civilian water shortages in occupied Donetsk, potentially through humanitarian corridors or international aid efforts, while documenting RF mismanagement. ** (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
High-Priority Intelligence Collection on RF-China-DPRK Military Cooperation, China Trade Impact, RF Negotiation Stance, RF Internal Issues (Military Pilot Murder, Belgorod Information Control, Burning Man Death, Scammers, Civilian Infrastructure Updates, Domestic History Initiatives, Austrian Opposition, Volgograd/Sochi Airport Incidents, Economic Stability, Metering Device Policy, Social Welfare Proposals (including working pensioners, family credit rates, educational loan forgiveness), Humanitarian Aid Collections, Fuel Market Stability, Russian-Chinese LED Screens, EEF Activities (VTB deposit growth, Saldo claims, "Taliban" attendance, Olympics participation, Putin's interactive presentation, Reshetnikov's economic assessment, Overchuk's meeting with Afghan Ambassador, Degtyarev's sports diplomacy comments, Growing Gas Demand), Foreign Currency Sales, Energy Sector Development, LNR Social Objects, Gazprom Legal Actions, Yakutia Mine Collapse, GTLC Baikal Aircraft, Simonenko Appeal, Bicycle Theft), and Dehumanization Tactics (AND NATO ISR, Trump-Zelenskyy Call, RF IO Narratives, Gaza City Imagery, China Military Parade, Zakharova Statements, Slutsky SCO Comments, Alexandrov Ensemble Cultural Diplomacy, Mi-38 Helicopters, Namejs 2025, Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, Azerbaijan/OSCE Minsk Group, Sergey Tsivilev EEF Interview, RF Milblogger Content (WarGonzo, Zvиздец Мангусту, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews, Воин DV, Басурин о главном, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Lyman Direction, Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka), Epstein Video, Humanitarian Aid for Troops, RF Air Defense Claims, "Power of Siberia-2" non-confirmation, RF Ground Advances (Chervonaya Dibrova, Grigorievka), Saldo's Corruption Claims, RF Riverine Operations, RF's Largest Regrouping/New Offensive, Merz/Taurus IO, Putin's Vladivostok Tour/Infrastructure Launches, Aeroflot Airport Costs, Kotsnews/Macron IO, 155th Marine Brigade Museum, Aviakhab Book, SIM Card Regulations, Exoskeleton Tech, Romania/Moldova IO, SBU Agent Detention, Germany-Poland Troop Movement, RF Economic Stagnation/Ruble Devaluation, RF Units with HIV/Hepatitis, Mykolaiv Water Supply, Kyiv SIZO Investigation, DRG Capture in Bryansk and Kaluga Oblasts, RF Special Forces Reconnaissance, Google/YouTube Outages, Janus Putkonen IO, RF Claims on Peace Desire, RF Nuclear Support Day IO, Filimonov IO, German Aid Package to Ukraine, Medvedev's Threats, Civilian Casualties in Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv/Druzhkivka/Kozacha Lopan, Uniqlo Return IO, RF Patriotic Education, Detention Conditions of Ukrainians in Russia, Estonian Diplomat Expulsion, Coalition of the Willing Outcomes, UAF SBU Agent Arrests, RF Daily Progress Reports, AFGHANISTAN EARTHQUAKE, MOSCOW HEATING, ACOUSTIC DRONE RECOGNITION, RF FAR EAST ENERGY STRATEGY, NEW GERMAN INTELLIGENCE CHIEF, DNIPRO DELTA ISLANDS (KHERSON), WATER SHORTAGES (DONETSK), RF IO - YOUTH SABOTAGE NARRATIVE, RF IO - CHINA GLOBAL LEADERSHIP, UAF DOMESTIC MISSILE DEVELOPMENT): Immediately elevate collection requirements on RF-DPRK military cooperation and the impact of increased China-Russia trade. Collect and analyze RF statements regarding negotiation to understand shifts in strategic objectives. Monitor RF internal issues, including the Krasnodar military pilot murder, Belgorod information control measures, the Volgograd and Sochi airport restrictions, the reported increase in scammer activity, and potential exploitation of the Burning Man death, as well as the mine collapse in Yakutia, and the
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