Archived operational intelligence briefing
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RF:
UAF: Active in air defense against RF drone attacks in Kyiv Oblast, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Cherkasy, Myrhorod, Chernihiv, Nizhyn, Dnipro and Kropyvnytskyi, with confirmed PPO activity over the Left Bank and drones now over central Kyiv, with a confirmed explosion and drone debris falling in Dniprovskyi district, impacting a kindergarten. New threats to Vasylkiv, Borova, and Bila Tserkva, and a new threat to Sumy district, and a new threat near Kremenchuk. UAF Air Force reports UAVs from Kyiv Oblast moving to Zhytomyr Oblast, then to the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblast, with a new course reported to Zhytomyr/Ozerne and now Malyn. Later, groups of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast moved towards Kyiv Oblast. Intelligence monitors suggest that drones over Kyiv are reconnaissance "Gerberas" probing PPO positions. Air raid alerts for Kyiv have now been called off and then re-issued due to renewed drone threat, but the overall air threat persists. UAF Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs from the northeast for Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV, likely reconnaissance, in western Sumy Oblast, and engaging it. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northern direction. UAF forces are engaged in defense around Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk) against RF claims of advances and counter-attacks. Civilians are sheltering in Kyiv metro due to air raid alerts. UAF Naval Forces/General Staff are monitoring an RF oil spill in the Black Sea. UAF General Staff provides information on a terrorist case in Odesa handed over to court. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 is conducting a survey for veterans and reports on passenger transportation via international partners and partnership with Fastiv for community strengthening. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a missing soldier from a Dnipro hospital who has been found. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that women who are local council deputies can travel abroad without restrictions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a fast-moving target over Sumy Oblast and a UAV course on Honcharivske, and now KAB launches into Donbas and Sumy regions. UAF General Staff reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Khliborob (Sumy region), Bilohirya, and Novoselivka (Zaporizhzhia region), and ongoing clashes in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv directions. UAF repelled 3 RF assaults in Kherson direction and 11 RF assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Satellite images show results of destruction of pumping stations at Unecha NPS. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares a photo of a soldier ("Hedgehog") joining UAF under contract. РБК-Україна reports "Rubizh" NGU brigade is fundraising for destroyed property and equipment. STERNENKO posts about an "optical fiber drone" for reconnaissance, and also shares a video about drones for school security, but now states donations are insufficient. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on murder and cruel treatment of civilians during the occupation of Bucha, with new suspicions against RF servicemen and indictments sent to court, and introduces a portal to protect businesses. ASTRA reports 3 injured in Kharkiv Oblast due to shelling. UAF 55th Separate Artillery Brigade (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) posts video of successful detection and destruction of enemy UAV launch points. Kharkiv OTU provides an informational report on the situation in its area of responsibility. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts commendations for Ukrainian Air Force personnel. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Putin admits RF will hit Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and Putin discusses Ukraine's security with Trump. STERNENKO reports a suspect in the Parubiy murder has confessed. РБК-Україна provides video of the suspect in the Parubiy murder confessing to killing his son, claiming self-defense due to the son's involvement with "the opposition" and stating it was a personal revenge against "Ukrainian authorities," denying blackmail from Russia. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that a company of ground robotic systems from the 93rd Brigade "Kholodny Yar" Alter Ego used an explosive drone and an FPV drone to destroy a bridge used by Russians for logistics, as well as a shelter. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video of the Parubiy suspect confessing, emphasizing his claim of personal revenge and denial of Russian blackmail. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" highlights that "the war continues, but fundraising is stalled!" Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a man expressing anger and frustration over military operations, specifically attacks on infrastructure and bridges, using strong language. Офіс Генерального прокурора officially launches the "StopTisk" platform to protect businesses in Ukraine. TASS reports that the Lviv Prosecutor's Office confirmed no data linking the suspect in the Parubiy murder to Russia. SBU (Оперативний ЗСУ) exposes an FSB agent group that was adjusting Russian fire on Kherson defenders. Zaporizhzhia Oblast (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) reports 80% completion of winter preparations, including protecting transformer substations and decentralized energy facilities. Олександр Вілкул showcases a new security and patriotic education lyceum in Kryvyi Rih. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports meetings with families of the 44th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade. РБК-Україна supports a fundraising effort for vehicles for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a severely injured soldier requesting euthanasia from comrades, highlighting the human cost of conflict and medical evacuation challenges. Стрелков Игорь Иванович shares a video of former Ukrainian President Yanukovych criticizing Ukraine's past EU/NATO aspirations. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on attending a meeting about the "eRecovery" program. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of Kyiv children holding lessons in the metro, featuring old footage of Poroshenko discussing social welfare, likely RF IO. Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ report Erdogan stated Putin and Zelensky are not not ready for a meeting. ТАСС reports Qatar supports a potential Russia-Ukraine summit but is not organizing it. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports high fire danger in Kharkiv Oblast. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны reports NATO paid $2 billion for US weapons to Ukraine, citing Rutte. ТАСС reports five families from Russia and five from Ukraine will reunite with their relatives. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of a Ukrainian paratrooper appealing for donations of a DJI Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance. UAF is modifying HMMWV vehicles with anti-drone mesh protection and improved armor, with two for infantry support and one for reconnaissance/medevac. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering a scheme to illegally seize over 11 hectares of land on Zhukov Island in Kyiv. UAF channels (Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна) confirm the suspect in the Parubiy murder has been remanded for 60 days without bail. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Finland will remove the swastika from its Air Force flags to avoid upsetting NATO allies. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new enemy UAV on the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts, and a high-speed target in northern Sumy Oblast heading south. РБК-Україна confirms the high-speed target in northern Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs on eastern Kharkiv Oblast, northern Donetsk Oblast, and northeastern Kherson Oblast, with possible PPO activity. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports renewed launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on the devastation of mines in occupied Donbas, highlighting RF's destructive impact on regional infrastructure. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs in northern Kherson Oblast and northeast of Sumy, with interception efforts engaged. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War held a meeting with families of the 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade. UAF's 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade reports continued destruction of Russian infantry near Bilohora. STERNENKO posts a video of SBU soldiers effectively targeting Russian forces and equipment with drones in the Pokrovsk direction. Генеральний штаб ЗС України (General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) provides an operational update as of 16:00, 02.09.2025 (likely 1600Z 02 SEP 25), detailing ongoing Russian invasion activities. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts video of "Furyya" RUBpAK unit destroying occupiers with drones. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the son of the suspect in the Parubiy murder fought in the 93rd Brigade and went missing in Bakhmut. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (Air Assault Forces of Ukraine) showcases a BM-21 "Grad" MLRS, emphasizing its continued relevance and capability. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the State Bureau of Ukraine for Ethno-politics and Freedom of Conscience (DESS) caught "evaders" attempting to cross the border disguised as special forces, being transported by a police officer. РБК-Україна reports that notary services will appear in the "Diya" application. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
RF Intentions:
Operational Objective: Degradation of Ukrainian Military & Civilian Resilience and Breakthrough on Eastern Front, particularly Pokrovsk, and consolidation of gains on new axes, with enhanced tactical mobility, and expanded aerial strike focus, and persistent and widespread aerial strikes, and destroying UAF infantry, and active Sieversk operations, and claimed capture of Rusyn Yar, with clean-up operations north of Zahirne, Krasnolimansky focus, Kondrashovka and Figolevka positions, and Su-25 air support): The drone strikes on Kyiv Oblast, particularly those identified as reconnaissance drones, reinforce RF's intent to target critical infrastructure and air defense, aiming to disrupt normal life and degrade Ukraine's economic and civilian resilience. The aggressive ground claims in Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk), now with claims of UAF unsuccessful counter-attacks, continue to indicate an operational objective to seize key territory on the eastern front. The claimed encirclement of UAF 80th AAB near Sadky in Sumy Oblast, and claimed active advances near Kozacha Lopan and consolidate gains in Moskovka in Kharkiv Oblast (supported by ground IO from Воин DV), including destroying UAF reconnaissance and sabotage groups. These new axes of advance will be accompanied by heavy IO. RF MoD claim of liberating Fedorivka (DNR) will be part of this consolidation. RF will continue to leverage crowdfunded support for tactical units (including for UAZ vans). RF will continue to use artillery, including Grad MLRS (Kharkiv direction) and other platforms (Zaporizhzhia front, Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka), to support ground operations. RF will continue ground assaults and clashes across all active fronts reported by UAF General Staff (South Slobozhansky, Kupyansk, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv) and promote successes in Krasnolimansk. RF will continue anti-armor engagements. RF will also continue mine laying in border areas. RF will conduct multinational military exercises with CSTO CRRF units ("Interaction 2025") to project strength and enhance operational readiness with allies. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts on the Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk) direction, indicating continued RF focus there. RF will continue to engage and destroy UAF infantry positions as demonstrated by Старше Эдды's video. Colonelcassad reports RF flag raised in Poltavka (Konstantinovka direction) DNR, indicating an intent to consolidate territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Information/Diplomatic Objective: Project Strength, Undermine Western Unity, and Control Narratives, with historical revisionism and long-term energy security, and actively exploiting Ukrainian internal incidents, and managing internal social tensions, and promoting normalcy, and countering mobilization rumors, and exploiting POW confessions, and deepening DPRK ties, and showcasing internal development, and economic messaging, and emphasizing external threats to NATO, and discrediting Finland, and exploiting Trump's "disappearance", and promoting the Russian Orthodox Church, and glorifying their soldiers, and engaging in internal military recruitment IO, and promoting Surazh development, and using satirical/critical posts for enlistment drives, and leveraging military bloggers, and historical narrative on Beslan, and promoting drone repair capability, and countering UAF mobilization narratives: RF's amplification of ground claims (Pokrovsk, Sumy encirclement, Kharkiv advances, Moskovka seizure, Fedorivka liberation, Sieversk encirclement, Sieversk ground operations, Poltavka flag raising, Rusyn Yar capture) and selective reporting on "attacked enemy objects" aims to project military effectiveness and control the narrative. RF's diplomatic overtures (Putin-Xi-Mongolia meetings, Power of Siberia-2 memorandum, 22 cooperation documents, Putin-Vučić meeting, Putin-Mirziyoyev meeting, Putin-Lukashenko meeting) aim to project diplomatic strength, long-term energy security, and a robust international standing. Басурин о главном's candid criticism of the Russian medical system could be an attempt to manage domestic discontent. Kotsnews's targeting of Trump and Ursula in IO highlights an intent to influence international political discourse. The FSB's announcement of a foiled terror plot is intended to showcase state control. TASS highlighting iPhones being sold with a defect due to RuStore absence can be used to frame Western tech as problematic. RF recognizing RUSI as "undesirable" reflects an intent to control information flow. The China visa-free regime announcement is intended to reinforce positive bilateral relations. TASS reporting on Peskov discussing a Putin-Kim meeting is a diplomatic IO signal. TASS reports of US Senator Mike Lee's statements regarding NATO indicate an intent to amplify anti-NATO sentiment. The ban on filming drone attacks in Mari El is a clear intent to control information. RF promoting positive internal news (agriculture, consumerism, Surazh development) signals an intent to project normalcy. WarGonzo's Transnistria video is a clear IO effort. RF sources highlighting "Ukrainian PVO fail" reflects an intent to degrade UAF morale. Kadyrov_95's "Trump as Chechen" video is an IO play. Putin's meeting with Slovak PM Fico, and Fico's stated intent to relay Russia's message to the EU, and his complaints, shows an intent to create internal EU divisions. Putin's statement that RF "never attacked" anyone is a clear IO attempt to rewrite history. Putin discussing Ukraine's security with Trump indicates intent to influence US foreign policy. TASS reports that US NATO allies lack the political will for a quick end to hostilities in Ukraine, and Europe is unwilling to deploy troops, indicating an intent to amplify Western disunity. TASS reports Putin and Kim Jong Un will be together at a parade and reception, and discussions will continue afterwards, indicating intent to project strong, anti-Western alliances. The North Korean "Rodong Sinmun" newspaper's dedication to Kim Jong Un's meeting with families of military personnel who died "liberating Kursk Oblast," an apparent historical revisionism or fabrication. TASS reporting that Putin and Xi Jinping did not discuss the idea of deploying a Chinese peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine intends to manage external expectations and deflect from direct military aid. RF channels (Colonelcassad, НгП раZVедка) are explicitly exploiting the Parubiy murder and suspect's confession to generate anti-Ukrainian government narratives, demonstrating an intent to destabilize internal Ukrainian politics and morale. Alex Parker Returns continues this exploitation. Глеб Никитин's posts on Arzamas development demonstrate an adaptive use of social media to project internal stability and progress. Воин DV's report on French Ministry of Health preparing for war indicates an intent to frame Western nations as preparing for direct conflict, escalating the narrative. MoD Russia's "Interaction 2025" exercise coverage shows an intent to project military strength and alliance cohesion (CSTO). Kotsnews's video warning against nationalism disguised as patriotism indicates an intent to control internal social narratives and prevent internal divisions from escalating. Рыбарь posting videos of "underage terrorists" aims to reinforce state security narratives. Новости Москвы posting non-military domestic content indicates an intent to project normalcy and stability to internal audiences. News about coffee brand collaboration is an IO effort to promote positive civilian morale. Colonelcassad reporting on social challenges faced by "heroes of the SMO," potentially indicating an intent to acknowledge and manage veteran welfare issues, or to use these issues for internal critique and reform. Басурин о главном posting infographics on cybersecurity scams and fake medical/educational resources is an adaptation to conduct public awareness campaigns on domestic issues, potentially countering internal vulnerabilities. ТАСС reports Pakistan is "resolutely determined" to strengthen ties with Russia, and Putin stating lowered trade is a "good signal to work". Alex Parker Returns amplifies an old Facebook post from a Ukrainian soldier claiming Bakhmut was not encircled, likely to highlight perceived UAF propaganda. Рыбарь posts a graphic titled "Indian-American War," likely for IO. ASTRA reports a suspected war criminal was appointed minister, indicating RF internal political decisions. TASS reports five families from Russia and five from Ukraine will reunite, indicating an intent to portray humanitarian efforts. Russia and Turkey testing a mechanism where Gazprom payments for gas will remain in Turkey, to be used for the Akkuyu NPP, indicating an intent to circumvent Western sanctions and secure energy projects. Два майора posts photos on train travel, with a caption criticizing "European drug addicts," intending to reinforce a sense of Russian exceptionalism. Alex Parker Returns posts images speculating on the health of "the bulldozer of American politics" (Biden), intending to undermine US leadership. TASS denying fake information about student mobilization calls demonstrates an intent to counter rumors that could impact internal stability and recruitment. Рыбарь's "Personal Revenge" video on a captured individual denying war crimes indicates an intent to generate sympathy for RF forces or discredit Ukrainian authorities. RF Minister of Internal Affairs Kolokoltsev holding a working meeting with DPRK Minister of Public Security Pan Du Sob indicates an intent to deepen cooperation with DPRK, potentially including internal security and counter-intelligence collaboration, which could further bolster RF capabilities. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's new video project is intended for IO. Глеб Никитин's posts on subway construction are intended to project internal stability and progress. TASS reports Kim Jong Un's daughter accompanying him to China, intended to signal diplomatic importance and potential succession. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
RF Courses of Action (COAs):
COA 1 (Sustained and Intensified Multi-Domain Deep Strikes on Capital, Key Regional Targets, and Energy/Industrial/Port Infrastructure, with KAB Employment, and Blame Attribution IO, and Escalated Retaliation, including very high volume drone attacks, and targeting of UAF C2/personnel, and active internal espionage, and enhanced tactical logistics, and renewed KABs on Sumy, and missile strikes on Mariupol, and new KAB launches on Kharkiv and Donetsk, and 'Geran' UAV precision strikes, and ongoing shelling of Nikopol and Novaya Tavolzhanka, and destruction of UAF Starlink, and new UAV groups over Kharkiv/Shevchenkove, and UAVs near Kyiv/Kotsyubynske, and UAVs on Malyn, and Su-25 air support on Zaporizhzhia, and rapid drone repair, and targeting UAF personnel with UAVs, and expanded aerial targets to Kremenchuk, Dnipro, Kropyvnytskyi, and intensified Pokrovsk ground assaults): RF will continue to prioritize massed drone and potentially missile attacks on Kyiv Oblast (new threats to Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, with a confirmed explosion, drone debris in Dniprovskyi district impacting a kindergarten), and other regions (Sumy with KABs, Donbas with KABs, Izium, Izmail, Dnipropetrovsk border regions including Pokrovske, with a new threat to Sumy district, and a new threat of strike UAVs from the northeast for Chernihiv Oblast, and an enemy UAV in western Sumy Oblast, and tactical aviation on Northern direction, and enemy UAVs in northern Kherson Oblast and northeast of Sumy). RF is highly likely to conduct retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian border regions and cities (e.g., Kharkiv Oblast, including new KAB launches, Donetsk Oblast, including new KAB launches) following the Rostov-on-Don attack and the Unecha NPS strike. Expect initial, probing RF strikes or intensified reconnaissance (e.g., 'Gerbera' drones) on Ukrainian energy and industrial infrastructure. RF will likely launch further high-volume drone attacks, potentially using newly showcased UAVs. Putin's admission of striking energy infrastructure confirms this COA. RF will continue aviation strikes against military targets in various regions and UAV control points. RF will enforce information control, as seen with the ban on filming drone attacks in Mari El. RF will actively propagate narratives of "Ukrainian PVO fails" during these strikes. Putin's statement (via Два майора) explicitly confirming that Russia tolerated Ukrainian strikes on its energy infrastructure for a long time for a long time but has now started to respond seriously, further reinforces the high likelihood of this retaliatory strike campaign. RF will continue to leverage FSB agent networks (as exposed in Kherson) to adjust fire and conduct targeting, emphasizing persistent internal espionage. RF will continue missile launches in occupied territories, as evidenced by explosions in Mariupol, likely targeting UAF forces or infrastructure, and simultaneously generate IO to justify them. RF tactical aviation will conduct renewed launches of KABs on Sumy Oblast. RF tactical aviation will conduct renewed launches of guided aerial bombs on Kharkiv Oblast from the north. RF tactical aviation will conduct renewed launches of guided aerial bombs on Donetsk Oblast. Генеральний штаб ЗС України reports RF conducted 5 missile strikes, 52 air strikes, and 45 MLRS attacks over the past day, indicating this tempo will likely continue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF will continue precision strikes using 'Geran' UAVs against identified warehouse-like structures, as demonstrated by Воин DV's video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF is expected to conduct a massed shelling soon, using 5 charged aircraft, targeting energy infrastructure and objects in Western Ukraine, as reported by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Воин DV reports that operators of the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, jointly with the 657th Separate Anti-Tank Division of the 29th Army (Vostok Grouping), successfully targeted enemy armored vehicles in forested areas of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating a high likelihood of continued RF precision strikes targeting UAF ground assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Colonelcassad posts drone footage from the Sumy direction, identifying a damaged 'AARTOS Radar Complex Mast,' indicating RF is suffering losses to its EW/ISR assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAV groups moving from Chernihiv region to Kyiv region, indicating RF will continue to use multiple axes for aerial attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF will continue shelling border settlements in Belgorod Oblast, as evidenced by the Novaya Tavolzhanka incident, to deter UAF cross-border activity and provoke a response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF will continue to target and destroy UAF communication infrastructure, specifically Starlink terminals, using kinetic strikes, as demonstrated by Басурин о главном's video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF will continue FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol district, as indicated by 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), to maintain pressure on UAF defensive lines and civilian areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports: "🛵 БпЛА із Київщини ➡️ на Житомирщину." (🛵 UAVs from Kyiv Oblast ➡️ to Zhytomyr Oblast.). RF will continue drone reconnaissance and probing along this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: MoD Russia posts video of Strela-10 SAM systems covering artillery positions in Krasnoarmeysk direction, confirming RF will maintain active air defense for its ground assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Air Threat - Kharkiv): RF will continue to launch new groups of UAVs through Kharkiv Oblast, targeting areas like Shevchenkove, to sustain pressure and reconnaissance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Air Threat - Kyiv): RF will continue to deploy UAVs towards Kyiv and Kotsyubynske, indicating a sustained threat to the capital region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Air Threat - Zhytomyr): RF will continue to deploy UAVs towards Malyn in Zhytomyr Oblast, extending the geographical scope of aerial reconnaissance and potential strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Air Support - Zaporizhzhia): RF will continue to use Su-25 attack aircraft to provide close air support for ground offensives on the Zaporizhzhia front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Drone Repair): MoD Russia posts video of servicemen repairing and maintaining small reconnaissance UAVs, claiming rapid repair capabilities. This indicates an adaptation to improve sustainment and operational readiness of drone assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Drone Strike - UAF Personnel): Colonelcassad's video shows an RF UAV striking UAF personnel during night reconnaissance. This is an adaptation to conduct targeted strikes on UAF manpower using precision-guided munitions from drones, particularly under low-light conditions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Ground Operations - Pokrovsk): Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports intensified combat near Pokrovsk, with claims of extensive destruction of UAF equipment and infantry. This indicates an adaptation towards more aggressive and potentially higher-risk ground assaults in this critical sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Air Threat - Kremenchuk): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a UAV near Kremenchuk. This is an adaptation by RF to expand its aerial reconnaissance and potential strike footprint deeper into Ukrainian territory, likely to identify new targets or probe UAF air defenses in previously less-targeted regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Air Threat - Kropyvnytskyi): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports strike UAVs inbound to Kropyvnytskyi. This signifies an adaptation by RF to expand its aerial strike targets further into central Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (UAF Air Warning - Sumy): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports UAVs over Sumy, indicating RF will continue aerial reconnaissance and potential strikes in this border region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (UAF Air Warning - Multiple Oblasts): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports "special attention" for Zaporizhzhia, Cherkasy, Myrhorod, Chernihiv, Nizhyn due to UAV threat. This indicates RF will expand its aerial strike operations to a wider array of central and eastern Ukrainian cities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
COA 2 (Reinforced Ground Offensive in Sieversk Axis for Encirclement, with Consolidation on new axes in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, and Persistent Localized Offensive Operations on other Eastern directions, bolstered by informal logistical support, and heavy IO, and multinational exercises, and targeted destruction of UAF infantry, and claimed capture of Rusyn Yar, with clean-up operations north of Zahirne, Krasnolimansky focus, Kondrashovka and Figolevka positions, and Su-25 air support): RF will commit its main effort to closing the claimed encirclement of UAF forces at Sieversk, leveraging fire support and assault elements from the 3rd Shock Army. Concurrently, RF will attempt to contain the UAF gain at Udachne and prevent a UAF counter-attack against the flank of their Pokrovsk assault group. RF IO will heavily amplify the Sieversk narrative to create the perception of a major UAF defeat. RF will attempt to consolidate claimed encirclement of UAF 80th AAB near Sadky in Sumy Oblast, and push active advances near Kozacha Lopan and consolidate gains in Moskovka in Kharkiv Oblast (supported by ground IO from Воин DV), including destroying UAF reconnaissance and sabotage groups. These new axes of advance will be accompanied by heavy IO. RF MoD claim of liberating Fedorivka (DNR) will be part of this consolidation. RF will continue to leverage crowdfunded support for tactical units (including for UAZ vans). RF will continue to use artillery, including Grad MLRS (Kharkiv direction) and other platforms (Zaporizhzhia front, Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka), to support ground operations. RF will continue ground assaults and clashes across all active fronts reported by UAF General Staff (South Slobozhansky, Kupyansk, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv) and promote successes in Krasnolimansk. RF will continue anti-armor engagements. RF will also continue mine laying in border areas. RF will conduct multinational military exercises with CSTO CRRF units ("Interaction 2025") to project strength and enhance operational readiness with allies. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts on the Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk) direction, indicating continued RF focus there. RF will continue to engage and destroy UAF infantry positions as demonstrated by Старше Эдды's video. Colonelcassad reports RF flag raised in Poltavka (Konstantinovka direction) DNR, indicating continued consolidation. Генеральний штаб ЗС України's 16:00 update reports 59 combat engagements over the past day, confirming persistent ground pressure. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF will intensify operations in the Sieversk direction, including potential attempts to encircle UAF groupings, as indicated by TASS expert assessment and active ground combat by the 3rd Shock Army (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ISW assesses Russia is preparing a large-scale offensive in Donetsk Oblast, and Операция Z (referencing WarGonzo) reports Russia is preparing an autumn offensive to capture all of Donbas. This indicates a high probability of a major RF ground offensive in the near future. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a map with Cyrillic text related to military operations in the "Druzhkovske direction," indicating continued RF ground offensive focus there. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts drone footage showing FPV strikes on enemy infantry positions, indicating RF will continue with such tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Colonelcassad posts video of an aerial view of a heavily damaged building, with Russian soldiers displaying a Russian flag, claiming the liberation of Rusyn Yar. RF will attempt to secure and conduct symbolic flag-raising ceremonies in newly captured settlements to bolster morale and legitimize gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo message with a map showing military operations and an inset photograph of destroyed buildings with a Russian flag, for the Dnipropetrovsk direction. RF will likely continue ground operations and claim territorial control in the Dnipropetrovsk region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Z комитет + карта СВО posts a map (Krasnolimansky direction, Sep 1, 2025) showing military control and fortified positions, indicating RF will continue to attempt to secure and advance in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a message about the complexity of the current direction and calls for a "powerful volley," indicating RF is preparing for a significant ground offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Z комитет + карта СВО posts a map of the Kondrashovka area, indicating tactical positions. RF will maintain control and potentially advance from these positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message claiming "Foreign Legion mercenaries of the AFU are being transferred to Tykhe in the Kharkiv direction." RF will likely attempt to intercept or engage these forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Z комитет + карта СВО posts a map of the Figolevka area, indicating tactical positions. RF will maintain control and potentially advance from these positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Ground Activity - Zaporizhzhia): RF will continue methodical clearing operations north of Zahirne, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with the 1198th Motorized Rifle Regiment, demonstrating a sustained ground effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Air Strike - Pokrovsk area): RF will continue to conduct destructive strikes in the vicinity of contested urban areas like Myrnohrad, near Pokrovsk, to support ground operations and degrade UAF capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Air Support - Zaporizhzhia): RF will continue to use Su-25 attack aircraft to provide close air support for ground offensives on the Zaporizhzhia front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Zelenskiy / Official and Оперативний ЗСУ post videos of President Zelenskyy's address, noting "new accumulations of Russian forces on some parts of the front." This indicates RF will very likely continue or escalate ground offensives in various sectors. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Claims - DRG Capture): Colonelcassad posts photos claiming capture of a UAF DRG. This indicates RF will continue to disrupt UAF reconnaissance and sabotage activities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (UAF Drone Strike - RF Convoy): ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports Ivan Franko Group destroyed an RF convoy (7 OVT) near Vozdvyzhenka. RF will likely face increased interdiction efforts against its logistical and troop movements, potentially requiring changes in their movement patterns or increased escort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Ground Operations - Pokrovsk): Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares video of alleged intense combat near Pokrovsk, with claims of RF "Otvazhnye" (Brave ones) forces destroying a significant amount of enemy equipment and infantry. This indicates RF will maintain high pressure and attempt to achieve a decisive breakthrough in the Pokrovsk area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Psychological Operations): MoD Russia posts a video of UAV operators dropping propaganda leaflets urging enemy soldiers to surrender. This indicates RF will continue to utilize psychological operations to demoralize UAF ground forces and encourage desertion, particularly in active combat zones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Disinformation - Azov Self-Inflicted Wounds): ТАСС reports alleged cases of self-inflicted wounds in an "Azov" brigade near Kupyansk. RF will likely amplify such disinformation to discredit UAF units and erode morale among their forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF SITREP Summary): Рыбарь posts a summary of "September 1-2 results". This indicates RF's intent to control the narrative of battlefield developments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
COA 3 (Sustained Diplomatic and Military-Industrial Outreach & Strategic EW, with Reinforced Anti-Western/Historical Revisionism IO, and Internal Stability Focus, and Long-Term Energy Strategy, and Legal Action against Critical Analysis, and attempts to influence Moldovan internal affairs, and exploiting Ukrainian internal incidents, and managing internal social tensions, and promoting normalcy, and promoting alternative lifestyles, and leveraging internal anti-corruption efforts, and countering mobilization rumors, and exploiting POW confessions, and deepening DPRK ties, and showcasing internal development, and economic messaging, and emphasizing external threats to NATO, and discrediting Finland, and exploiting Trump's "disappearance", and promoting the Russian Orthodox Church, and glorifying their soldiers, and engaging in internal military recruitment IO, and promoting Surazh development, and using satirical/critical posts for enlistment drives, and leveraging military bloggers, and historical narrative on Beslan, and promoting drone repair capability, and countering UAF mobilization narratives): RF will continue to leverage its strategic EW capabilities (e.g., GPS jamming) and tactical counter-drone capabilities. RF will persist in diplomatic initiatives to strengthen partnerships (China/Putin-Xi/Mongolia meetings, new long-term energy agreements with China/Mongolia, China visa-free regime, potential Putin-Kim meeting now with Kim's arrival in Beijing, with ongoing tete-a-tete discussions with Fico, and strengthening ties with Pakistan, and new energy agreements with Turkey, and new Putin-Vučić meeting, now with Kim Jong Un's daughter accompanying him, and a new Putin-Mirziyoyev meeting, and a Putin-Lukashenko meeting) and pursue a robust anti-Western geopolitical narrative (e.g., "warning shot" for Trump, "warlike Ursula," historical revisionism, "undesirable" RUSI, US Senator Mike Lee's NATO comments, NYT on warming global attitude towards Putin, Fico's EU criticism, Putin stating "Russia never had...desire to attack anyone", and anti-US narratives in South America, and now mocking Finnish leadership for historical claims). RF will integrate narratives of internal security successes (thwarted Izhevsk terror attack, bribery arrests, successful detention of "underage terrorists", escaped detainees from Yekaterinburg as confirmed by TASS, and a new hidden surveillance system by ASTRA, and military court sentencing of "White Suit" group) and address internal social issues (medical system failures, RuStore absence, gift limits for teachers/doctors, internal security incidents like the Shchelkovo police assault, cemetery plot disputes, migrant issues, rising rental prices, and promoting internal development in cities like Arzamas, and promoting community support for veterans, and Surazh development) into its IO. The signing of the Power of Siberia-2 memorandum and 22 cooperation documents will be heavily promoted. RF will showcase DIB capabilities, such as new UAV production and the UAVheli SKY-TRUCK. RF will continue to project normalcy and public support (e.g., mushroom picking, zoo videos, Melitopol amusement park, coffee brand promotions, new subway construction by Глеб Никитин, agricultural harvest by Игорь Артамонов, consumer promotions by Новости Москвы). RF will continue to suppress negative information. RF will intensify IO against Moldova regarding Transnistria. RF will leverage sympathetic foreign figures. RF will highlight any instability in Europe. Putin's meeting with Fico will be leveraged for IO. RF will continue to use out-of-context quotes from UAF leadership. Putin's statements on ZNPP and atomic cooperation with USA in Slovakia will be part of this. The planned Putin-Kim meeting at a parade and reception, with continued discussions, will be a key component of this diplomatic outreach. RF will leverage the TASS report on US NATO allies lacking political will to end hostilities in Ukraine. RF will likely use the North Korean "Rodong Sinmun" article on "liberating Kursk Oblast" as part of a broader historical revisionism campaign. RF will leverage the Guardian report on US threats of sanctions at the UNSC for IO. RF will actively exploit internal Ukrainian incidents, such as the Parubiy murder and suspect's confession, to fuel anti-Ukrainian government narratives and sow internal discord (despite Lviv prosecutor's office denial of RF links, as confirmed by Военкор Котенок). RF will frame Western "war preparations" (e.g., French Ministry of Health, Germany/France missile warning system, Rutte's missile threat statement) as evidence of Western aggression. RF will continue to foster ideological alignment with BRICS countries on "traditional values." RF will continue IO surrounding a potential Russia-Ukraine summit (with Qatar's support). RF will continue to highlight perceived UAF propaganda (e.g., Alex Parker Returns amplifying old Bakhmut claims). RF will continue IO around appointments of suspected war criminals. RF will continue IO around family reunions. RF will maintain diplomatic channels with the US, as evidenced by planning for foreign ministry consultations, while continuing to control the narrative around its scope (e.g., no Chinese peacekeeping). RF will continue internal anti-corruption efforts (e.g., Ogloblin sentencing, sentencing of former head of communication planning for bribery). RF will use IO to critique "European drug addicts." RF will continue to use IO to deny rumors about student mobilization calls, as seen in Lipetsk Oblast. RF will continue to engage in high-level diplomatic meetings, such as the Putin-Vučić meeting in Beijing, to secure support and undermine Western unity. RF will continue to use IO (e.g., Рыбарь's "Personal Revenge" video) to discredit Ukrainian authorities or generate sympathy for their soldiers. RF will seek to deepen ties with DPRK, including in internal security, as evidenced by the Kolokoltsev-Pan Du Sob meeting. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's new video project is intended for IO. Глеб Никитин's posts on subway construction are intended to project internal stability and progress. TASS reports Kim Jong Un's daughter accompanying him to China, intended to signal diplomatic importance and potential succession. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF will leverage Putin's meeting with Serbian President Vučić to highlight mutually beneficial strategic partnerships and economic cooperation, projecting diplomatic strength. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF will intensify IO against the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), framing the lawsuit for its liquidation as religious persecution, to further destabilize Ukrainian society and garner international sympathy from conservative elements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: TASS reports that the "Eurotroika" demands Iran hold direct talks with the US to avoid the restoration of UN Security Council sanctions, which RF may leverage to highlight Western diplomatic pressure or to amplify discord among Western allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts photos with the caption "Live with this now," indicating RF's intent to engage in psychological warfare or internal IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF IO will amplify the appointment of a suspected war criminal as minister in Dagestan, potentially framing it as a reward for loyalty or service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RF-aligned IO will mock Western leaders, as seen with Janus Putkonen's report on Finnish President Stubb's historical claim. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Kotsnews's aggressive IO regarding the Parubiy murder represents an intent to demonize Ukrainian authorities and fuel anti-Ukrainian sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a photo with Russian text, translated as "I'm tired of working at the pickup point." This could be allowed by RF to acknowledge and manage domestic social discontent, showing a degree of internal transparency or attempting to diffuse tension. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: TASS reports Trump earned more from cryptocurrency in one day than from real estate in his entire life. RF may use this for IO to promote alternative economic models or to elevate figures sympathetic to RF narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: РБК-Україна reports Vučić complained to Putin about "difficulties" for Serbia due to Russia's war against Ukraine, which RF will manage diplomatically. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Vučić called his conversation with President Putin "very open, honest and important," indicating RF's intent to project positive diplomatic outcomes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a photo message with the caption: "Дяди в камуфляже вместо родных отцов" (Uncles in camouflage instead of native fathers), an RF IO effort to highlight the social impact of the war, possibly to evoke sympathy for their soldiers or demoralize UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: РБК-Україна posts a photo message titled "Putin in Xi Jinping's shadow. SCO summit results for Ukraine," indicating a critical assessment of the SCO summit from a Ukrainian perspective, which RF will likely counter with positive IO to maintain its projected image of strong diplomatic ties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Новости Москвы posts a video of a 70-year-old grandmother skydiving in Moscow Oblast, a non-military internal IO effort to project normalcy and positive civilian activities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Serbia and Russia agreed to jointly solve the problem of US sanctions against the company NIS, according to Vučić, demonstrating RF's intent to engage in diplomatic solutions to circumvent sanctions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ quotes Xi Jinping on strengthening coordination on multilateral platforms (UN, SCO, BRICS, G20), reinforcing the RF-China diplomatic alignment as an intent to challenge Western global influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video with the caption "#НашиРебята #ДНР", a morale-boosting and propaganda piece for internal RF audiences or those in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo with the caption "🪂 Страны НАТО закупили у США оборонительное и летальное оружие для Украины" (NATO countries bought defensive and lethal weapons for Ukraine from the USA), an RF IO effort to highlight Western military aid and frame it as escalatory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports Russia and the US are prioritizing dialogue on Ukraine and preparing for MFA talks, indicating RF's continued intent to engage in diplomacy while managing the narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Russia and Pakistan are working on opening direct flights, indicating RF's intent to expand diplomatic and economic cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Houthis claimed drone strikes on four targets in Israel, including the General Staff building, which RF will likely use to highlight global instability and Western vulnerabilities, an adaptive IO tactic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports 🚨 Three people were wounded in shelling by the AFU of the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka, Belgorod region, said Governor Gladkov. RF will continue to use such incidents for internal and external IO, framing UAF as aggressors targeting civilians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ASTRA posts photo message with caption about "SVO" participants from Vladimir inviting the arrested mayor of the city to the war and offering him call signs "Live" and "Plumber." This indicates an intent to use internal political issues to promote enlistment in the "SVO." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: AV БогомаZ posts multiple photos showcasing urban development in Surazh, highlighting it as a winner of the All-Russian competition for the best projects for creating a comfortable urban environment, under the federal project "Formation of a Comfortable Urban Environment" of the national project "Housing and Urban Environment," initiated by President Putin. RF will continue to use domestic development achievements for internal IO to project stability and prosperity amidst the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports UOC filed several lawsuits in response to the lawsuit by the State Service of Ukraine for Ethno-politics and Freedom of Conscience to terminate the activities of the UOC, said the head of the State Service for Ethno-politics and Freedom of Conscience Yelensky. RF's intent is to highlight this as religious persecution by Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Старше Эдды posts commentary on Ukraine's intent to legally ban the Russian Orthodox Church, ridiculing the attempt to "ban God" and stating it won't prevent Orthodoxy. RF's intent is to galvanize support for the Russian Orthodox Church and criticize Ukrainian actions as anti-religious. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Colonelcassad posts photo message that Kim Jong Un arrived on his armored train in Beijing with his daughter, noting her increased public appearances in military and official events. RF's intent is to highlight strategic partnerships and potential succession planning of its allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Senator Natalia Kosikhina stated that the statement by the President of Finland about the country's victory in the war with the Soviet Union is an "example of monstrous historical illiteracy." RF's intent is to discredit narratives from NATO countries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: WarGonzo posts video featuring an interview with a man discussing his personal history, travels, interactions with Russian authorities regarding potential military service or conscription, and being detained and sent to a transit point. RF's intent is to collect and disseminate personal narratives related to mobilization, potentially for propaganda or to gather information on individual experiences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Старше Эдды posts commentary on the "tragedy of the man who eliminated the scoundrel Parubiy," framing it as a "biblical plot" where a father took revenge on the "tempter" responsible for his son's death in the war. RF's intent is to dehumanize Ukrainian political figures and justify violence against them, further destabilizing the information environment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Операция Z (referencing Военкоры Русской Весны) posts photo message with caption about Trump's disappearance and his spiritual advisor's address. RF's intent is to amplify foreign political speculation and potentially sow discord in Western politics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video debunking RF propaganda, specifically a "cheap fake" about "destruction of 17 Azov fighters and American equipment near Glushchenkovo." This indicates RF's intent to continue producing and disseminating false claims about UAF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Рыбарь posts a photo message claiming "6 AfD deputies died synchronously in the last week," which is likely an RF IO attempt to destabilize German internal politics or sow conspiracy theories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a photo message about an "Ex-general sentenced to 9 years for bribery," indicating RF's intent to project an image of internal accountability, even if selectively. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Военкор Котенок posts a video message about the need for support, stating "Without support in the assault - there is no chance to survive," accompanied by two Russian soldiers. This reflects RF's intent to generate public support and resources for its military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova recommended the Finnish President "turn bayonets against the Nazis" in Ukraine, in response to Stubb's comments, indicating RF's intent to use aggressive and historically revisionist rhetoric against NATO leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF IO - Finland): Colonelcassad and Басурин о главном amplifying Finnish President Stubb's statement demonstrates RF's intent to use historical revisionism and discredit NATO members and their narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Internal News - Moscow birds): Новости Москвы posts a video of a large flock of birds, indicating an intent to project normalcy through non-military media content. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Internal News - Art): ТАСС reports Pushkin Museum presented a "lost" Madonna with Child painting. This is an internal IO effort to project cultural richness and normalcy. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF IO - Infrastructure): AV БогомаZ shares photos of Surazh sports and education infrastructure development, indicating an intent to project internal development and stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF C2/Logistics): ТАСС reports detention of former head of Nizhny Novgorod metro/bridge construction for bribery, indicating an internal intent to address corruption or maintain perceived accountability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF IO - Dagestan Appointment): Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны reports appointment of a "Hero of Russia" to minister in Dagestan, indicating an intent to reward military service with political positions and generate positive IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF IO - Economic Sanctions): Colonelcassad posts a political cartoon regarding tariffs on Indian goods, implying RF's intent to project narratives on economic warfare and influence global trade discussions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Internal Affairs - Social Issues): ASTRA reports on public outrage over a concert, leading to requests for investigation from law enforcement, highlighting RF's intent to manage internal social tensions and respond to conservative groups. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF IO - Western Unity): ТАСС reports Alexander Stubb stating Western countries "may lose" to SCO if they don't pursue more cohesive foreign policy, representing RF IO to highlight Western disunity and the growing strength of the SCO bloc. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Internal Morale - POW Account): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video interview with an RF POW (Grigory Dmitrenko, 114th Motor Rifle Brigade) describing poor conditions and reasons for surrender, indicating RF's intent to acknowledge internal morale issues (even if through a UAF-aligned channel), or UAF's intent to exploit these issues for psychological operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF IO - Military Bloggers): Два майора posts a photo message encouraging military bloggers to develop "horizontal connections" and support the front, indicating a coordinated effort to leverage military bloggers for IO and support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF IO - Historical Narrative): Басурин о главном posts a film "Unknown Soldier" about the Beslan tragedy, likely for internal RF IO to commemorate security forces, generate patriotic sentiment, and reinforce narratives of state resilience against "terrorism." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Recruitment): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video recruitment message for the Russian Armed Forces, emphasizing salary, bonuses, and training, with a focus on drone skills, indicating RF's intent to address personnel shortages and recruit skilled individuals. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Sustainment - Drones): MoD Russia posts video of servicemen repairing and maintaining small reconnaissance UAVs, claiming rapid repair capabilities, indicating RF's intent to project a robust and efficient drone sustainment capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Internal Affairs - Civilian Casualties): ТАСС reports seven people remain hospitalized in Ryazan and Moscow after an incident in Ryazan Oblast, indicating RF's intent to publicly report on domestic incidents affecting civilians, potentially to maintain transparency or manage public concern. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Zelenskiy / Official and Оперативний ЗСУ post videos of President Zelenskyy's address, noting "new accumulations of Russian forces on some parts of the front," which signals RF's intent to launch or sustain ground offensives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: WarGonzo posts a photo message with the caption "What emotions can there be when you look at this? It will never leave your memory," featuring a damaged residential building. This is RF IO intended to evoke emotional responses and attribute blame for destruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Рыбарь posts a photo message with the caption "It's restless in Crimea," and an analysis of Ukrainian naval combat assets (BЕК) in the Black Sea, indicating ~8 vessels, with unknown types, and potential threats to Crimean infrastructure. This reflects RF's intent to monitor and project a threat from UAF naval activity in the Black Sea and to generate IO for internal audiences regarding the security of Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Kotsnews posts a photo message with a poll result and a derogatory comment about "Madame Ursula." This indicates RF's intent to use anti-Western IO and political satire to undermine Western leadership and unity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: РБК-Україна posts a video of Zelenskyy reacting to Putin's "fables" about the war. This implies an RF intent to propagate narratives about the war that Zelenskyy deems false. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF IO - Trump's Disappointment): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Trump expressing "great disappointment" with Putin. Alex Parker Returns and Colonelcassad amplify and interpret this. This is a deliberate IO effort to exploit any perceived cracks in Western unity or to frame Trump as a potential mediator or sympathetic figure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF IO - Fico's Message): РБК-Україна reports Fico has prepared a message for Zelenskyy after meeting Putin. RF will leverage this to portray itself as engaging in diplomatic solutions, albeit through intermediaries, to maintain a narrative of openness to dialogue while pushing its own agenda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF IO - UAF Mobilization Narrative): РБК-Україна reports the Office of the President states mobilization will continue even after a possible ceasefire. RF will exploit this for IO to demoralize Ukrainian society, presenting it as an endless war or a sign of UAF's desperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF IO - Communication Issues): Рыбарь posts a photo message titled "Nine years without communication." This is likely intended for internal RF IO to highlight the perceived suffering of people in conflict zones, potentially blaming UAF for disrupting civilian life or highlighting areas "liberated" by RF where such issues are no longer present. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Internal Affairs - Syria Arrest Warrants): ASTRA reports French courts issued arrest warrants for Syrian ex-president Assad and officials. RF will likely dismiss this as Western legal overreach, but it may impact their diplomatic freedom of maneuver. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF IO - Military Bloggers): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message encouraging military bloggers to develop "horizontal connections" and support the front, indicating a coordinated effort to leverage military bloggers for IO and support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Psychological Operations): MoD Russia posts a video of UAV operators dropping propaganda leaflets urging enemy soldiers to surrender, demonstrating an intent to undermine UAF morale and encourage desertion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF IO - Trump on US Space Race): Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны), Оперативний ЗСУ, and Два майора report Trump stating the US is losing the space race to Russia and China. This indicates RF's intent to leverage Trump's statements to reinforce a narrative of US decline and RF-China ascendancy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Military-Technical Cooperation - India): ТАСС reports Russia and India are discussing expanding S-400 air defense system deliveries. This indicates RF's intent to strengthen strategic military partnerships and boost its defense industrial complex. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF IO - 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment): Kadyrov_95 posts a video celebrating the 3rd anniversary of the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-AKHMAT," showcasing its effectiveness and combat readiness. This indicates an intent to boost morale and project the strength of specific units, particularly those associated with Chechen forces, for internal and external consumption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Disinformation - Azov Self-Inflicted Wounds): ТАСС reports (citing RF security structures) alleged cases of self-inflicted wounds in an "Azov" brigade near Kupyansk. This indicates a clear intent to spread disinformation aimed at demoralizing specific UAF units and discrediting the broader Ukrainian military. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF IO - Trump): ТАСС reports Trump will take "certain measures" in the next few days, closely monitoring Moscow and Kyiv. This indicates RF's intent to leverage Trump's statements to influence geopolitical narratives and potentially create uncertainty in international relations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Diplomatic - Serbia): ТАСС reports new Serbian government elected. This indicates RF's intent to acknowledge and validate diplomatic developments in friendly states. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Economy - Gold Prices): ТАСС reports gold futures reached a new historical maximum of $3,600 per troy ounce. This indicates RF's intent to highlight positive economic trends that support its narrative of resilience despite sanctions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF Internal Affairs - Corruption): Fighterbomber reports an arrest in Sevastopol related to illegal transport on military aircraft. This indicates RF's intent to project an image of internal accountability within its military and security structures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW (RF SITREP Summary): Рыбарь posts a summary of "September 1-2 results". This indicates RF's intent to control the narrative of battlefield developments and shape public perception of the conflict's progress. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
Sustained and Intensified Multi-Domain Deep Strikes on Capital, Key Regional Targets, and Energy/Industrial/Port Infrastructure (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will maintain, and likely increase, the tempo and intensity of deep strikes. The current wave of drone attacks on Kyiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Cherkasy, Myrhorod, Chernihiv, Nizhyn, Dnipro, Kremenchuk, and Kropyvnytskyi will continue, with reconnaissance drones actively probing UAF air defenses for future massed strikes, potentially incorporating newly showcased UAVs. Expect further KAB strikes on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. RF will continue to utilize 'Geran' UAVs for precision strikes against large structures. The identified intent to conduct a "massed shelling" with "5 charged aircraft" targeting Western Ukraine's energy infrastructure suggests a high probability of a significant aerial assault in the near future. This COA is reinforced by Zelenskyy's address mentioning "dozens daily, 152 in morning, over 50 in afternoon" drone attacks and "new accumulations of Russian forces on some parts of the front."
Reinforced Ground Offensive in Sieversk Axis for Encirclement, and Persistent Localized Offensive Operations on Eastern Directions (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will commit its main effort to closing the claimed encirclement of UAF forces at Sieversk, leveraging fire support and assault elements from the 3rd Shock Army. This will be accompanied by heavy IO to amplify any perceived successes. Concurrently, RF will attempt to contain the UAF gain at Udachne and prevent a UAF counter-attack against the flank of their Pokrovsk assault group. RF will intensify ground assaults and artillery pressure on the Pokrovsk axis (including Myrnohrad) and seek to consolidate gains on new axes in Sumy (e.g., Sadky) and Kharkiv Oblasts (e.g., Kozacha Lopan, Moskovka). RF will also continue localized offensive operations on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv directions, supported by artillery, FPV drones, and close air support (e.g., Su-25s on Zaporizhzhia front). The ISW assessment of a large-scale offensive in Donetsk Oblast and an autumn offensive to capture all of Donbas strongly supports this. RF will continue psychological operations, including dropping propaganda leaflets, to demoralize UAF ground forces. RF will also continue to spread disinformation about UAF units, such as alleged self-inflicted wounds in Azov brigades, to erode morale and sow mistrust.
Sustained Diplomatic and Military-Industrial Outreach & Strategic EW, with Reinforced Anti-Western/Historical Revisionism IO (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will continue its robust diplomatic efforts, particularly strengthening partnerships with China, Belarus, Serbia, Pakistan, and DPRK, leveraging these for economic benefit and to project a strong anti-Western bloc. RF will maintain its strategic EW capabilities (GPS jamming) and tactical counter-drone capabilities (e.g., targeting Starlink). Propaganda will intensify, focusing on discrediting Western leaders (e.g., Finnish President, "warlike Ursula"), amplifying anti-NATO narratives, exploiting internal Ukrainian political incidents (Parubiy murder, UOC lawsuit, mobilization extension, alleged ethnic hatred crimes, border crossing incidents) for destabilization, and promoting narratives of internal stability, normalcy, and military successes within Russia. The amplification of Trump's "disappointment" with Putin and his comments on the US losing the space race, and his promise of "certain measures," will be used to create perceived cracks in Western unity and project Russian-Chinese ascendancy, while also creating an element of uncertainty. RF will also expand military-technical cooperation, as seen with discussions with India on S-400 systems.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
Synchronized Large-Scale Ground Offensive in Donetsk Oblast, combined with Massed Aerial Strikes on Critical National Infrastructure and C2 (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF launches a fully coordinated large-scale ground offensive across the Donetsk Oblast, as assessed by ISW, simultaneously committing multiple axes of advance (e.g., Sieversk, Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk directions). This offensive would be preceded or accompanied by a multi-wave, multi-domain (cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, loitering munitions, KABs) massed aerial strike campaign targeting not only energy infrastructure but also key UAF C2 nodes, airfields, and logistics hubs across all of Ukraine, especially in Western Ukraine. This aims to disrupt UAF response and command while overwhelming defensive capabilities, forcing a rapid collapse of lines.
Hybrid Escalation: Chemical/Biological Attack or Tactical Nuclear Demonstration in Ukraine (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): In response to perceived UAF successes or stalemates on the ground, RF could employ tactical chemical or biological agents against UAF concentrations or critical infrastructure. A more extreme, albeit less likely, MDCOA would involve a demonstrative tactical nuclear detonation (e.g., over the Black Sea or an unpopulated area in Ukraine) to break Ukrainian will and pressure Western powers into negotiations on RF terms. While there is no immediate intelligence suggesting this, RF's increasing rhetoric against Western "escalation" and the historical context of hybrid warfare capabilities warrant this as a dangerous, though unlikely, contingency.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
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