Archived operational intelligence briefing
TIME: 251903Z SEP 25
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RF:
UAF: Active in air defense against RF drone attacks in Kyiv Oblast, with confirmed PPO activity over the Left Bank and drones now over central Kyiv, with a confirmed explosion and drone debris falling in Dniprovskyi district, impacting a kindergarten. New threats to Vasylkiv, Borova, and Bila Tserkva, and a new threat to Sumy district, and a new threat near Kremenchuk. UAF Air Force reports UAVs from Kyiv Oblast moving to Zhytomyr Oblast, then to the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblast, with a new course reported to Zhytomyr/Ozerne and now Malyn. Later, groups of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast moved towards Kyiv Oblast. Intelligence monitors suggest that drones over Kyiv are reconnaissance "Gerberas" probing PPO positions. Air raid alerts for Kyiv have now been called off, but the threat persists. UAF Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs from the northeast for Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV, likely reconnaissance, in western Sumy Oblast, and engaging it. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northern direction. UAF forces are engaged in defense around Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk) against RF claims of advances and counter-attacks. Civilians are sheltering in Kyiv metro due to air raid alerts. UAF Naval Forces/General Staff are monitoring an RF oil spill in the Black Sea. UAF General Staff provides information on a terrorist case in Odesa handed over to court. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 is conducting a survey for veterans and reports on passenger transportation via international partners and partnership with Fastiv for community strengthening. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a missing soldier from a Dnipro hospital who has been found. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that women who are local council deputies can travel abroad without restrictions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a fast-moving target over Sumy Oblast and a UAV course on Honcharivske, and now KAB launches into Donbas and Sumy regions. UAF General Staff reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Khliborob (Sumy region), Bilohirya, and Novoselivka (Zaporizhzhia region), and ongoing clashes in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv directions. UAF repelled 3 RF assaults in Kherson direction and 11 RF assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Satellite images show results of destruction of pumping stations at Unecha NPS. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares a photo of a soldier ("Hedgehog") joining UAF under contract. РБК-Україна reports "Rubizh" NGU brigade is fundraising for destroyed property and equipment. STERNENKO posts about an "optical fiber drone" for reconnaissance, and also shares a video about drones for school security, but now states donations are insufficient. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on murder and cruel treatment of civilians during the occupation of Bucha, with new suspicions against RF servicemen and indictments sent to court, and introduces a portal to protect businesses. ASTRA reports 3 injured in Kharkiv Oblast due to shelling. UAF 55th Separate Artillery Brigade (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) posts video of successful detection and destruction of enemy UAV launch points. Kharkiv OTU provides an informational report on the situation in its area of responsibility. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts commendations for Ukrainian Air Force personnel. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Putin admits RF will hit Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and Putin discusses Ukraine's security with Trump. STERNENKO reports a suspect in the Parubiy murder has confessed. РБК-Україна provides video of the suspect in the Parubiy murder confessing to killing his son, claiming self-defense due to the son's involvement with "the opposition" and stating it was a personal revenge against "Ukrainian authorities," denying blackmail from Russia. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that a company of ground robotic systems from the 93rd Brigade "Kholodny Yar" Alter Ego used an explosive drone and an FPV drone to destroy a bridge used by Russians for logistics, as well as a shelter. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video of the Parubiy suspect confessing, emphasizing his claim of personal revenge and denial of Russian blackmail. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" highlights that "the war continues, but fundraising is stalled!" Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a man expressing anger and frustration over military operations, specifically attacks on infrastructure and bridges, using strong language. Офіс Генерального прокурора officially launches the "StopTisk" platform to protect businesses in Ukraine. TASS reports that the Lviv Prosecutor's Office confirmed no data linking the suspect in the Parubiy murder to Russia. SBU (Оперативний ЗСУ) exposes an FSB agent group that was adjusting Russian fire on Kherson defenders. Zaporizhzhia Oblast (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) reports 80% completion of winter preparations, including protecting transformer substations and decentralized energy facilities. Олександр Вілкул showcases a new security and patriotic education lyceum in Kryvyi Rih. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports meetings with families of the 44th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade. РБК-Україна supports a fundraising effort for vehicles for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a severely injured soldier requesting euthanasia from comrades, highlighting the human cost of conflict and medical evacuation challenges. Стрелков Игорь Иванович shares a video of former Ukrainian President Yanukovych criticizing Ukraine's past EU/NATO aspirations. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on attending a meeting about the "eRecovery" program. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of Kyiv children holding lessons in the metro, featuring old footage of Poroshenko discussing social welfare, likely RF IO. Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ report Erdogan stated Putin and Zelensky are not not ready for a meeting. ТАСС reports Qatar supports a potential Russia-Ukraine summit but is not organizing it. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports high fire danger in Kharkiv Oblast. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны reports NATO paid $2 billion for US weapons to Ukraine, citing Rutte. ТАСС reports five families from Russia and five from Ukraine will reunite with their relatives. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of a Ukrainian paratrooper appealing for donations of a DJI Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance. UAF is modifying HMMWV vehicles with anti-drone mesh protection and improved armor, with two for infantry support and one for reconnaissance/medevac. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering a scheme to illegally seize over 11 hectares of land on Zhukov Island in Kyiv. UAF channels (Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна) confirm the suspect in the Parubiy murder has been remanded for 60 days without bail. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Finland will remove the swastika from its Air Force flags to avoid upsetting NATO allies. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new enemy UAV on the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts, and a high-speed target in northern Sumy Oblast heading south. РБК-Україна confirms the high-speed target in northern Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs on eastern Kharkiv Oblast, northern Donetsk Oblast, and northeastern Kherson Oblast, with possible PPO activity. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports renewed launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on the devastation of mines in occupied Donbas, highlighting RF's destructive impact on regional infrastructure. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs in northern Kherson Oblast and northeast of Sumy, with interception efforts engaged. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War held a meeting with families of the 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade. UAF's 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade reports continued destruction of Russian infantry near Bilohora. STERNENKO posts a video of SBU soldiers effectively targeting Russian forces and equipment with drones in the Pokrovsk direction. Генеральний штаб ЗС України (General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) provides an operational update as of 16:00, 02.09.2025 (likely 1600Z 02 SEP 25), detailing ongoing Russian invasion activities. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts video of "Furyya" RUBpAK unit destroying occupiers with drones. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the son of the suspect in the Parubiy murder fought in the 93rd Brigade and went missing in Bakhmut. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (Air Assault Forces of Ukraine) showcases a BM-21 "Grad" MLRS, emphasizing its continued relevance and capability. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the State Bureau of Ukraine for Ethno-politics and Freedom of Conscience (DESS) caught "evaders" attempting to cross the border disguised as special forces, being transported by a police officer. РБК-Україна reports that notary services will appear in the "Diya" application. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
RF Intentions:
RF Courses of Action (COAs):
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
Sustained and Intensified Multi-Domain Deep Strikes on Capital, Key Regional Targets, and Energy/Industrial/Port Infrastructure (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will maintain, and likely increase, the tempo and intensity of deep strikes. The current wave of drone attacks on Kyiv and other regions (Kremenchuk, Dnipro, Kropyvnytskyi) will continue, with reconnaissance drones actively probing UAF air defenses for future massed strikes, potentially incorporating newly showcased UAVs. Expect further KAB strikes on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. RF will continue to utilize 'Geran' UAVs for precision strikes against large structures. The identified intent to conduct a "massed shelling" with "5 charged aircraft" targeting Western Ukraine's energy infrastructure suggests a high probability of a significant aerial assault in the near future. This COA is reinforced by Zelenskyy's address mentioning "dozens daily, 152 in morning, over 50 in afternoon" drone attacks and "new accumulations of Russian forces on some parts of the front."
Reinforced Ground Offensive in Sieversk Axis for Encirclement, and Persistent Localized Offensive Operations on Eastern Directions (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will commit its main effort to closing the claimed encirclement of UAF forces at Sieversk, leveraging fire support and assault elements from the 3rd Shock Army. This will be accompanied by heavy IO to amplify any perceived successes. Concurrently, RF will attempt to contain the UAF gain at Udachne and prevent a UAF counter-attack against the flank of their Pokrovsk assault group. RF will intensify ground assaults and artillery pressure on the Pokrovsk axis (including Myrnohrad) and seek to consolidate gains on new axes in Sumy (e.g., Sadky) and Kharkiv Oblasts (e.g., Kozacha Lopan, Moskovka). RF will also continue localized offensive operations on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv directions, supported by artillery, FPV drones, and close air support (e.g., Su-25s on Zaporizhzhia front). The ISW assessment of a large-scale offensive in Donetsk Oblast and an autumn offensive to capture all of Donbas strongly supports this. RF will continue psychological operations, including dropping propaganda leaflets, to demoralize UAF ground forces. RF will also continue to spread disinformation about UAF units, such as alleged self-inflicted wounds in Azov brigades, to erode morale and sow mistrust.
Sustained Diplomatic and Military-Industrial Outreach & Strategic EW, with Reinforced Anti-Western/Historical Revisionism IO (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will continue its robust diplomatic efforts, particularly strengthening partnerships with China, Belarus, Serbia, Pakistan, and DPRK, leveraging these for economic benefit and to project a strong anti-Western bloc. RF will maintain its strategic EW capabilities (GPS jamming) and tactical counter-drone capabilities (e.g., targeting Starlink). Propaganda will intensify, focusing on discrediting Western leaders (e.g., Finnish President, "warlike Ursula"), amplifying anti-NATO narratives, exploiting internal Ukrainian political incidents (Parubiy murder, UOC lawsuit, mobilization extension, alleged ethnic hatred crimes) for destabilization, and promoting narratives of internal stability, normalcy, and military successes within Russia. The amplification of Trump's "disappointment" with Putin and his comments on the US losing the space race will be used to create perceived cracks in Western unity and project Russian-Chinese ascendancy. RF will also expand military-technical cooperation, as seen with discussions with India on S-400 systems.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
Synchronized Large-Scale Ground Offensive in Donetsk Oblast, combined with Massed Aerial Strikes on Critical National Infrastructure and C2 (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF launches a fully coordinated large-scale ground offensive across the Donetsk Oblast, as assessed by ISW, simultaneously committing multiple axes of advance (e.g., Sieversk, Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk directions). This offensive would be preceded or accompanied by a multi-wave, multi-domain (cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, loitering munitions, KABs) massed aerial strike campaign targeting not only energy infrastructure but also key UAF C2 nodes, airfields, and logistics hubs across all of Ukraine, especially in Western Ukraine. This aims to disrupt UAF response and command while overwhelming defensive capabilities, forcing a rapid collapse of lines.
Hybrid Escalation: Chemical/Biological Attack or Tactical Nuclear Demonstration in Ukraine (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): In response to perceived UAF successes or stalemates on the ground, RF could employ tactical chemical or biological agents against UAF concentrations or critical infrastructure. A more extreme, albeit less likely, MDCOA would involve a demonstrative tactical nuclear detonation (e.g., over the Black Sea or an unpopulated area in Ukraine) to break Ukrainian will and pressure Western powers into negotiations on RF terms. While there is no immediate intelligence suggesting this, RF's increasing rhetoric against Western "escalation" and the historical context of hybrid warfare capabilities warrant this as a dangerous, though unlikely, contingency.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
//END REPORT//
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