Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 301437Z JUL 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide threat from RF missile and UAV attacks persists. Ukrainian air defense units, drone systems, army aviation, and mobile fire groups actively engaged enemy aerial threats. UA Air Force warns of KABs in northern Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. A new nationwide air raid alert has been declared due to the takeoff of a Russian MiG-31K, a carrier of Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles; this threat was later cleared. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kyiv Oblast: Air raid alerts due to high-speed targets. Multiple civilian apartments damaged in Darnitsky district, 8 casualties including a 3-year-old child reported. A downed Iranian Shahed-136 drone (Russian Geran 2) confirmed. New enemy UAV detected in Makariv region. Threat of strike UAVs for Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod district). Security measures, including potential document checks, are underway in Desnyanskyi district. Zelenskyy visited a Ukrainian defense enterprise in Kyiv Oblast producing electronics and sensitive components for missiles, drones, and secure communication, with over 80% supporting defense. Power outages affect ~30,000 families due to weather, potentially exacerbating issues from RF strikes. UA forces observed a minute of silence. Thunderstorms reported in Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kyiv experienced a flooded urban street due to heavy rain, causing disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Air raid alert for Kyiv has been cleared. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Khmelnytska Oblast: Confirmed main target of enemy missile and drone trajectories overnight, with explosions reported. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poltava Oblast: Multiple missiles flying towards Poltava Oblast. Ballistic threat to Pryluky persists. Threat of strike UAVs to Poltava Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New UAV threat detected for Poltava, indicating continued aerial reconnaissance or strike efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Explosions reported in Kropyvnytskyi, with fire liquidation continuing after night RF attack. UAVs detected heading for Kropyvnytskyi. Damage to State Emergency Service (DSNS) building and equipment in Kropyvnytskyi confirmed. Threat of strike UAVs to Kirovohrad Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 3 UAVs shot down overnight. Two casualties reported due to RF attack. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected. New ballistic missile threat identified for Kamenskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a potential for a second launch. Russian army conducted a missile strike on Kamenskoye, confirmed by ASTRA with 4 killed and 8 wounded, including a pregnant woman. Ukrainian sources now report 3 killed in Kamenskoye, with 22 injured including 10 medical workers. Damage to civilian structures, vehicles, and medical infrastructure is significant. RF sources claim Kamenskoye hit a military rehabilitation center. Enemy UAVs detected in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, inbound towards Pavlohrad. Russian drone attack confirmed on Pavlohrad, damaging railway station, tracks, and contact network. RF attacked Nikopol region using artillery and FPV drones. Regional government reports over 3 billion UAH allocated for defense and security, 70% funded. UA 31st Mechanized Brigade denies RF claims of occupation of Malievka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming the settlement remains under UA control, though DeepState reports RF advance near Malievka. Threat of strike UAVs to Kryvyi Rih and Nikopol. High-speed target inbound to Dnipro from the south. UAVs reported on northern-western course in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Explosions heard in Pavlohrad. RF Colonelcassad disseminating propaganda featuring a purported captured Ukrainian soldier from Pavlohrad, Ilya Kukarin. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) A large-scale timber corruption scheme has been uncovered in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with an official notified of suspicion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Aviation munitions threat declared for Synelnykivskyi district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kherson Oblast: Enemy continues attempts to control the island zone in the Dnieper delta, maintaining intensive artillery shelling and aviation strikes. Clashes reported near Prydniprovske. UA forces repelled 5 Russian army assaults. RF sources claim repulsion of UA landing attempt on Tendrovska Spit. UA GUR special forces reportedly conducted a successful raid on Tendrovska Spit in the night of 28 JUL. UA military spokesperson complains of RF creating a "death zone" along the Dnieper on Kherson and Zaporizhzhia directions. DeepState reports drone footage showing the "utilization of Muscovites" on Kinburn Spit. RF forces are employing up to 250 FPV drones per day in the Kherson area. Missile threat to Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts. High-speed target inbound to Ochakiv. UA source Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports Russian attempts to cross the railway part of Antonivsky Bridge. UA military channel reports video regarding 34th Brigade of Coastal Defense, highlighting lack of cover, supply, and logistics for operations on the left bank. TASS reports RF security services claim "people in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions are forming groups to fight against TCC," likely a propaganda narrative. Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of reconnaissance UAVs in Kherson Oblast, with means for their interception engaged. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides an update regarding a previous "pidarskogo video" (derogatory term for Russian video) with additional details, stating: "🫡🇺🇦Regarding this fing video - there were indeed just fing many drops... Hell. Most of the fighters who were swimming managed to escape." RF Marine artillerymen from Dnepr Group of Forces claimed destruction of an AFU stronghold. RF Special Forces claimed to have tracked and destroyed a base of "Magyar's elite operators" during the storming of Stepnohirsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Сили оборони Півдня України reports "Orion" is methodically destroying enemy logistics in Kherson Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukrainian forces successfully disrupted a Russian attempt to set up a DRG on the right bank of Kherson Oblast, specifically targeting a railway bridge with an explosion, frustrating RF propaganda efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports RF military forces claimed to have dislodged UA forces from a technological tunnel and hoisted the Russian flag over the Antonivsky railway bridge in Kherson Oblast, using drone footage as evidence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Eastern Axes (General): Continued ground combat reported on Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka directions. RF tactical aviation active, including launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs). Continued effective UA FPV drone strikes on RF ground targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Kramatorsk Direction: КАБs inbound. Clashes reported near Predtechyne. RF source reports Ukrainian military personnel in Konstantinovka stated to CNN about personnel shortages. RF forces reported encircling Konstantinovka. RF hit residential areas in Kostiantynivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Donetsk Oblast (General): KABs inbound. Threat of strike UAVs to Sloviansk. ASTRA reports one person killed and six wounded in Russian attacks on Donetsk Oblast on 30 JUL. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Siversk Direction: New map indicates RF Airborne forces active near Siversk, Serebryanka, Hryhorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Bilohorivka. Clashes reported near Hryhorivka and towards Vyyimka. RF sources claim RF forces advancing, burning UA infantry positions near Siversk. Ukrainian 54th Brigade's 1st Rifle Battalion reportedly stopped an RF armored assault near Siversk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Chasiv Yar Direction: TASS reports RF forces completely control approaches to Chasiv Yar, cutting off UA supply routes. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
    • Torske Area: UA forces reportedly engaged RF in trenches near Torske, capturing prisoners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk (Pokrovsk Axis): Situation intensely escalating. RF forces are most actively advancing, with battles begun in Dimitrov (Myrnohrad) and improved RF positions in Rodinskoye. Reconnaissance drone observed providing RF tactical intelligence on Pokrovsk. RF sources claim DRGs have entered Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), with fire control over a road near Rodinskoye. Intense fighting confirmed by video footage. RF MoD claims liberation of Novoukrainka. RF forces entered Kolodezi, advancing towards Lyman. UA forces report two assault groups from the 63rd Mechanized Brigade attacked an enemy dugout near Torske, capturing two Russian mercenaries. RF sources claim RF forces entered Volodymyrivka (Druzhkivka direction). Rybar reports on "Battles for the heights near Alekseevka and the liberation of Dachnoye." Ukrainian DShV reports on operations in the Pokrovsk direction, including drone footage of damaged structures and successful engagements against targets. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares photo messages indicating significant destruction in Pokrovsk, similar to Toretsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Операция Z" / "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claims RF forces are mass destroying UA equipment and personnel at Pokrovsk, indicating continued intense fighting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukrainian General Staff reports continued clashes yesterday near Popiv Yar, Poltavka, Volodymyrivka, Novoekonomichne, Mykolayivka, Rodynske, Lysivka, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novopidhorodnye, Muravka, Myrolubivka, Horikhove, Dachne, Nykanorivka, Novoukrayinka on the Pokrovsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukrainian 55th Separate Artillery Brigade FPV drone operators successfully targeted RF assault troops, demonstrating continued effectiveness despite the difficult situation in Pokrovsk. The brigade reports facing shortages of trained personnel and technical means. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Avdiivka. Road to the coking plant. A Russian motorcyclist was hit by a Ukrainian drone. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad shares a tactical map showing the territorial location of Pokrovsk, indicating continued RF focus on the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a photo message related to the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС has released a video showing a coordinated Ukrainian drone attack, where one drone disables the protective net of a Russian tank, and a second drone immediately flies into the open hatch, indicating highly effective tactical strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk (Occupied): Severe water shortage in Kirovsky district. Donetsk under massive strike by UA drones, causing power outages for over 150,000 subscribers in Donetsk, Makiivka, and Yasynuvata. Damage to "Pushkinsky" Business Center and "Favorit" residential complex confirmed. Allegations of machine gun boxes being sold freely, indicating internal security breakdown. Strong fire reported in Kuibyshevsky district of Donetsk. CyberBoroshno reports that the headquarters of the RF 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (9 OMsBr) in the Agricultural Industrial Complex building on Zasdyako Mine territory (Donetsk, 48.054690,37.788110) was hit by UA forces on 25 JUL, indicating a successful deep strike against enemy C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Mash на Донбассе reports water supply schedule shifting in Donetsk due to shelling. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Mash на Донбассе reports that UA forces struck a playground in Vasilyevka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, injuring two children (9 and 7 years old) with shrapnel wounds, according to Balitsky (RF source). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS also reports on the strike on the playground in Vasilyevka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with two children injured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Active work of UA air defense units, drone systems, army aviation, and mobile fire groups overnight. Nine settlements hit by enemy strikes. Threat of strike UAVs. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected. Clashes yesterday in South Slobozhansky direction near Vovchansk, Zelene, Fyholivka, Zapadne and towards Petro-Ivanivka. Kadyrov's "Zapad-AKHMAT" battalion active near Vovchansk. A group of enemy strike UAVs inbound from Belgorod Oblast. Two explosions heard in Izyum. TASS reports UA forces fled from Radkivka, Kharkiv Oblast. RF forces reportedly advancing towards the Kharkiv-Kupyansk road to cut off UA supply routes. RF army continues to encircle and storm Kupyansk. KAB launches inbound to Kharkiv Oblast from the northeast. RF sources claim "Groza" EW system mass burning of UA transport in Kupyansk. UAV detected inbound to Kharkiv from the east. Fires and casualties in Kharkiv due to night RF attack, with 3 injured in Shevchenkivskyi district. Drone debris fall confirmed. Another explosion in Slobidskyi district. OTU "Kharkiv" reports on the situation in its operational zone as of morning 30 JUL 25. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kharkiv Air Force reports enemy UAV on outskirts of the city. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF struck Kharkiv district. There is a fire at the impact site, and casualties are reported. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF conducted missile strike on a suburb of Kharkiv. There is a fire at the impact site, casualties reported. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UA Air Force reports a likely reconnaissance UAV near Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, heading northeast, with possible air defense engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports Colonel Bohdan Lutsenko of the Ukrainian National Guard was liquidated in northern Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) A strike, likely an "Iskander" or other ballistic missile, hit Vasyshcheve village near Kharkiv. Photos confirm significant damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, has provided multiple photo messages showing the damage and consequences of the RF attack on Vasyshcheve village, confirming significant destruction to civilian structures, including houses and a school. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна also provides photo messages confirming the damage to Vasyshcheve village near Kharkiv, consistent with a missile strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны reports a powerful strike on Kharkiv Oblast, hitting a UA Armed Forces warehouse, with video and photo evidence of a large plume of dark smoke, characteristic of burning fuel/munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports on "Єдині новини" about current situation in Kharkiv region including shelling, casualties, and infrastructure damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UA 40th Artillery Brigade engaged in counter-battery warfare using drones in Kupiansk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sumy Oblast: Three fatalities due to RF attack. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation (KABs). Ukrainian SOF active. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected. Confirmed strike on the "Zvezda" ammunition plant in Shostka on 26.07. RF army has expanded its zone of control near Myropillia. Enemy UAVs from Kursk Oblast inbound. A group of Shahed drones in central Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. UA forces repelled 10 Russian army assaults. Damage to a tax office building confirmed. RF sources claim RF army advancing near Myropillia, towards Sumy. Several groups of enemy UAVs on the north of Sumy Oblast, moving south. UA FPV drone operators from "Kryla do pekla" unit conducted a series of successful FPV ambushes against enemy personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UA Air Force reports KAB launches by RF tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian military sources confirm successful FPV drone ambushes on RF personnel in Sumy Oblast, using fiber-optic drones, eliminating 8 occupants. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast heading towards the city. Possible air defense engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukrainian General Staff reports UA forces repelled 22 Russian army assaults on Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) UA Air Force reports an enemy UAV over Sumy city. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad video shows a damaged military truck on a dirt road near Yablonovka in Sumy Oblast, claimed as "Road of Death" for Ukrainian militants' equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF forces attacked the Sumy Oblast State Administration building for the third time in recent days, according as the regional military administration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chernihiv Oblast: High-speed missile detected. Explosion reported near Pryluky, Chernihiv Oblast. Enemy reconnaissance UAV detected. RF source claims Russian army struck Pryluky airbase, targeting a US "Black Hawk" UH-60 of GUR special forces. New ballistic missile threat from northeast direction. Enemy UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast. Suspilne reports an explosion in Chernihiv. Reconnaissance UAV activity in Honcharivske region. Colonelcassad (RF source) released video footage claiming two "Iskander" missile strikes on a training ground in Chernihiv Oblast, alleging up to 200 "militants" (UA personnel) were destroyed. UA sources (STERNENKO) confirm the strike, noting a pattern of RF hitting training centers 50km+ from the border/line of contact. UA Ground Forces report 3 killed, 18 wounded from missile strike on training facility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF source "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" publishes aerial reconnaissance footage claiming "Iskander" strikes on a "Ukrainian militant camp" in Chernihiv Oblast, indicating RF is consolidating intelligence on this strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС has released a video showing a drone strike on a camouflaged fortification in a forested area, likely related to operations in this region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Aviation munitions threat. Enemy reconnaissance UAV detected. Over 800 RF strikes in 24 hours. Russian forces attacked a penitentiary facility, resulting in 16-17 killed and 35-43 wounded. RF claims liberation of Temirovka. Ukrainian 118th Brigade engaged Russian forces with artillery. AFU disrupted an RF assault, inflicting significant losses. UA military spokesperson complains of RF creating a "death zone" along thed Dnieper on Kherson and Zaporizhzhia directions. Andryushchenko, advisor to Mariupol mayor, reports increased radiation background near Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) after a gust of wind, though Ukrainian MVS reports radiation levels are normal (0.14 mSv/hr). UA Air Force reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation. Colonelcassad shows video of destruction of UA M777 howitzer by RF dronovody. RF sources claim RF 64th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 35th Army Group "Vostok" destroying UA personnel and materiel near Huliaipole. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration observes a minute of silence. Panel discussion held in Zaporizhzhia on World Day Against Trafficking in Persons. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration photo message depicts a panel discussion related to the World Day Against Trafficking in Persons, indicating continued civilian administration and social initiatives despite conflict. Equipment support (Mavic drones, Starlinks, vehicles) delivered to Zaporizhzhia front. UA forces report "all clear" for air raid alert. UA Air Force reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Explosions reported in occupied Berdyansk, heard in nearby Primorsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukrainian General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Plavni on the Orikhiv direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports "all clear" for air raid alert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Pologivska community in Zaporizhzhia Oblast received nearly 1500 food kits as part of a new project initiated by the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows a drone's view of a heavily damaged village or town, described as being in the Zaporizhzhia direction, reinforcing ongoing heavy fighting and destruction in the area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports aerial surveillance footage, likely from a drone, showing a settlement or encampment in the Zaporizhzhia direction with multiple buildings under thermal imaging, indicating potential targets for RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports that the IAEA has checked the Zaporizhzhia NPP and that the radiation background is currently normal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The Governor of Zaporizhzhia Oblast (RF-appointed) is shown in a photo message, captioned as inspecting a children's playground in Vasilyevka after alleged UA shelling. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukrainian Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko visited Zaporizhzhia for a working trip. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF forces claimed to have destroyed a base of Ukrainian special forces during the storming of Stepnohirsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russia:
  • Internal Security & Cyber: Aeroflot IT systems crash, allegedly due to hackers, with recovery potentially taking up to a year. Mobile internet restricted in Tyumen, Udmurtia, and Sverdlovsk Oblasts. Demand for wired internet grows due to mobile internet interruptions during UAV attacks. Moscow police fine property owners for unregistered temporary residents. FSB prevented a terrorist attack against a high-ranking military official in Rostov-on-Don. Moscow pharmacy networks ("Stolichki," "Neopharm") and "Family Doctor" clinic hacked, causing closures and potential data leaks. "Почта России" website experiencing nationwide system failure due to hack. Journalist Olga Komleva sentenced to 12 years for "military fakes." Blogger Areg Shchepikhin kidnapped. Fire blocked workers in a Moscow construction site. Building collapse in Yekaterinburg. Gas cylinder explosion in a Volgograd correctional colony injured 4. Man arrested for throwing a smoke bomb into a bank in Pushkin. Tajikistan issued an arrest warrant for Umendjon Saliev, a suspect in the "Crocus" terrorist attack. A professor at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics arrested on treason charges. RF Telegram channels report drone security alerts in Moscow, Ryazan, Rostov, Tula, Voronezh, Oryol, Lipetsk, Saratov, Tambov, and Bryansk Oblasts. ASTRA reports a stone with "foreign agent" written on it was thrown into the window of journalist Vadim Vaganov's apartment in St. Petersburg. TASS reports two Russian citizens received 15 and 17 years in prison for collecting data on Russian Ministry of Defense facilities. Over 4,000 Russian users complained of a failure in the Steam platform. Chechen authorities temporarily suspended several charities collecting money for Palestinians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Новости Москвы" video shows a phone theft in Khimki; content unrelated to military operations. Another "Новости Москвы" video shows a vehicle in an urban setting at night, referencing criminal liability for aggressive driving; no military significance. Oleg Belousov, jailed for "fakes" about the army, placed in solitary confinement for five months. ASTRA reports Head of Azerbaijani diaspora in Urals, Shahin Shykhlinski, declared wanted, potentially related to internal security. Colonelcassad also reports Shahin Shykhlinski declared wanted. Alex Parker Returns reports on the same individual, stating he was previously detained and released. Aeroflot has fully stabilized its flight schedule after the information systems failure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Moscow police detained a married couple for collecting military intelligence on Moscow and Moscow Oblast facilities for Ukrainian intelligence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports searches at the Ingushetia Ministry of Education and Science. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Russian sailor from sunken vessel 'Eternity C' is receiving treatment in Sana'a. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Roskomnadzor (RKN) restricted access to Speedtest service, recommending Russian alternatives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Mandatory messenger 'Max' for digital signature documents in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports a woman detained in Leningrad Oblast in connection with the "Citizens of the USSR" extremist organization case. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Vkusvill" (RF grocery chain) experienced an internal system failure, not linked to a cyberattack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Russia's federal budget deficit for H1 2025 reached $47 billion, five times higher than last year, indicating significant financial problems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that most Russians support the creation of the 'Max' messenger, expecting security and functionality. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns video shows an alleged phone theft in Khimki and subsequent police detention of a migrant, highlighting an internal security and social issue in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы reports fines for illegal taxi services at airports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Север.Реалии reports a St. Petersburg resident accused of demonstrating banned symbols. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) An 18-year-old resident of Ivanovo Oblast accused a previously convicted Russian serviceman of rape. He has not been detained, ASTRA reported. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports Moscow OMON "Avangard" inviting recruits for service, specifically not for the SVO, but for internal security at significant public venues in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns video shows tearing down a portrait of Kadyrov in Sevastopol, indicating internal dissent or nationalist opposition to Chechen influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports an internet provider (AirNet) in St. Petersburg announced a hacker attack, and "Vkusvill" and "Samokat" reported a "system failure," indicating continued cyber and technical disruptions in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Новости Москвы" states Dagestan and Chechnya are the safest regions of Russia, and Tuva the least safe, suggesting an internal assessment of regional stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that Rosaviatsiya has annulled the certificate of the Irkutsk airline "Angara" for aircraft maintenance, which could impact civilian aviation readiness and spare parts availability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Хабаровский край Police reports that the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia warns citizens about the spread of unreliable information, indicating a continued focus on internal information control and counter-disinformation efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Mash на Донбассе reports on a civilian legal case in Antratsit (occupied territory), reflecting RF control over internal affairs in occupied regions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports a proposal in the State Duma to introduce priority service for families with children at airports, reflecting internal social policy and efforts to improve daily life. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that Shaman (a popular Russian singer) informed Roskomnadzor (RKN) about a fake website collecting data on military personnel on his behalf, indicating continued RF efforts to combat phishing and protect military data. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Север.Реалии reports that hackers attacked the largest internet provider in St. Petersburg, indicating continued cyber threats to Russian civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that Russian swimmers won a gold medal at the World Championships in Singapore, likely intended to boost national morale and project normalcy despite the ongoing conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Старше Эдды shares a photo message with Russian text discussing traditions of child-rearing and societal issues, not military content. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Rybar shares a photo message with the caption "Each country has its own symbols. A symbol is recognized immediately and immediately causes a reaction. For Russia, one such symbol is "Alpha"." The image shows a group of masked, uniformed personnel, heavily armed, in what appears to be a training or operational setting, with a large, stylized "A" (Alpha) logo. This is likely a reference to Alpha Group (Spetsnaz Alpha), a Russian FSB special forces unit, serving as a symbol of Russian power and special operations capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video message with a caption containing a derogatory quote from "Kursk residents" about "SVO fighters" (Russian military personnel), potentially indicating internal dissent or dissatisfaction among Russian civilians towards military presence. The video itself appears to show a man in camouflage drinking, possibly associated with Russian forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports adolescents in Kuban are accused of arson on railway infrastructure on behalf of an unknown handler, indicating continued sabotage attempts likely orchestrated from outside Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS video shows a roadside stop by traffic police involving individuals in military-style camouflage uniforms, some being apprehended, suggesting internal security issues or discipline problems within the military. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports a Russian citizen's body found in Istanbul with a garbage bag over head and Russian note in hand, indicating a possible homicide and internal security concern. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a fire at a bus parking lot in Kubinka near Moscow, the cause is unknown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Rostov Oblast: RF PVO destroyed four Ukrainian UAVs overnight. Drone attack on Salsk railway station resulted in one fatality and freight train fire, suspending train movement. Traction substation burning in Orlovsky. Two RF sappers died during UAV demining in Salsk district. Train movement resumed through Salsk. Over 50 apartments, 11 private homes, and 10 multi-apartment buildings were damaged in Salsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Leningrad Oblast: One person died and three injured due to drone attack. UAV attack danger declared. A fire involving cardboard and household waste (1,200 sq. meters) in Lepsari village. Roof of burning warehouse collapsed over 600 sq. meters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moscow: Evacuation of "Zvezdny" shopping center. First flight from Pyongyang landed at Sheremetyevo Airport. Images and videos from Moscow show construction of a new Olympic complex. Geely Monjaro crossover is the best-selling new car in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS video shows Moscow Zoo celebrating the 8th birthday of panda Dingding, likely for public morale and to project normalcy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bryansk Oblast: Governor reports "inhumane crimes against peaceful citizens." RF PVO shot down two Ukrainian UAVs over Smolensk Oblast. Colonelcassad reports 43 Ukrainian aircraft-type drones intercepted over Bryansk Oblast. TASS reports three Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Bryansk Oblast overnight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Bryansk Oblast weather forecast (thunderstorms, hail, strong winds) indicates potential for disrupted power supply, property damage, and agricultural losses, which could impact internal stability and resource allocation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns video shows an explosion on a lake surface near individuals fishing, described as "Ukrainians helping to stun fish," a provocative and false attribution for an incident in Bryansk Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belgorod Oblast (RF): Civilian injured and local administration head wounded due to UA drone attacks in Shebekino. ASTRA reports a civilian killed and UAV attacks on eight settlements with injuries. ASTRA reports a UAV attacked a multi-story residential building at Shchorsa, 8M in Belgorod, with damage consistent with a drone strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports approx. 10 apartments and 24 cars damaged in Belgorod from a UA drone attack on a multi-story building, with no casualties reported. TASS video shows a street scene with police cordon and damaged/burnt vehicles, supporting the report. RF artillery struck a Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) location on a farm in Bilenke. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports a man was wounded in Belgorod Oblast due to a drone attack, as confirmed by Governor Gladkov. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) / Kreminna Forests: RF claims control of ~10 hectares and encircling UA forces near Shypylivka and Hryhorivka. TASS reports "Zapad" Grouping destroyed a deeply buried Ukrainian Armed Forces command post in LNR. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video shows ZALA Z-16 drones providing targeting for MLRS, resulting in a successful strike on a wooded area, likely in LNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kursk Oblast: Two individuals hospitalized after a UA drone attack. Fire at a gas station. Two Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Kursk Oblast. ASTRA reports 19-year-old communication company employee killed in FPV drone attack on Karyzh village, Glushkovsky district. RF source "Voenkor Kotenok" claims "ВСУ попытались атаковать Курчатов, где расположена Курская АЭС." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Sochi (RF): Families of those killed in the Ukrainian Armed Forces attack on Sochi will receive 500,000 rubles, and those injured 200,000 and 50,000 rubles, according to the city mayor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Astrakhan: Residential building section collapsed due to gas explosion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports a cat was rescued from a collapsed building in Astrakhan, indicating continued civilian rescue efforts after the gas explosion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA has also provided a video of a cat being rescued from a collapsed building in Astrakhan, confirming the civilian rescue operation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Belarus: Unidentified UAV fell in Minsk, destroyed by EW. Belarusian Investigative Committee states UAV equipped with TNT and Ukrainian inscriptions. Lithuanian military chief states he would "like to shoot down drones over Belarus, but cannot." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Airfield Activity: British intelligence releases satellite photos showing active construction of aircraft shelters (caponiers) at Russian military airfields, including Millerovo. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Samara Oblast: Six residential buildings caught fire in Pridorozhny village, Samara Oblast, covering approx. 1,000 sq. meters. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Tula Oblast: Three Ukrainian UAVs neutralized. Three Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Tula Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Russian source "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" shares video of a cemetery in Tula with over a hundred new graves, marked with Russian flags and portraits, indicating significant military casualties being buried. This provides direct evidence of RF losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kamchatka, Sakhalin (RF Far East): TASS reports a strong earthquake of magnitude 7.1, then 7.9, then 8.7, now confirmed 8.8, occurred in Kamchatka. Tsunami threat declared on Avacha Bay coast and Severo-Kurilsk, leading to evacuations. Residents of Sakhalin returned home. No destruction in Severo-Kurilsk reported by operational services. Port Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky working normally. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports the strong earthquake was anticipated for 30 years and preparations were made. WarGonzo and Kotsnews provide additional reports on the Kamchatka earthquake. TASS confirms tsunami on Kurilsk Lake with no casualties. TASS warns of potential tsunami on Alaska, Hawaii, and US Pacific Coast. ASTRA video shows traffic in a coastal urban area in Hawaii, attributed to tsunami alert. RF MoD issues guidance on earthquake behavior. TASS reports a state of emergency introduced in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky due to the earthquake. TASS shares video allegedly showing the situation in Japan, to whose coast a tsunami is moving after the Kamchatka earthquake, and also a video of a fire station in the affected region, which may serve as a command post. TASS reports tourists are not cancelling trips to Kamchatka despite the earthquake. TASS reports tsunami reached California coast. TASS reports educational, cultural, and sports institutions will not work on 31 JUL in Severo-Kurilsk. TASS reports temporary accommodation points are deployed in Kamchatka for residents afraid to stay in their homes. Assessment of all houses after the earthquake will be completed within a week, with ~600 already inspected. No damage to energy infrastructure identified in Kamchatka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS video shows the damaged building of kindergarten № 15 in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, confirming wall collapse but no casualties. Local authorities plan to present medics from an oncology clinic to state awards for continuing operations during the earthquake. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) France's overseas territories of French Polynesia and the Marquesas Islands have declared a tsunami threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews reports on "Kamchatka Earthquake. Who else got it?" suggesting a broader impact assessment beyond initial reports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports scientists in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky expect aftershocks up to M7.5 and possible tsunamis on Avacha Bay coast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports tsunami threat on Kamchatka cancelled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Regular flights to Severo-Kurilsk landing site canceled due to flooding threat on the runway. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports temporary flight cancellations to Severo-Kurilsk due to runway flooding, confirming ongoing disruptions from the earthquake. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Klyuchevskaya Sopka volcano is erupting in Kamchatka due to the earthquake, indicating a new environmental threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo reports the tsunami threat on Kamchatka is cancelled, with aftershocks expected to diminish, indicating initial positive assessment of natural disaster response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that evacuation has begun on Easter Island due to the tsunami threat following the Kamchatka earthquake. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports an update after the Kamchatka earthquake that the highest volcano in Eurasia has begun erupting, with photo and video evidence of the eruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Regional:
  • United States: Trump states he is giving Putin a "10-day deadline" to end the war in Ukraine, or face tariffs. He further stated he would increase US oil production if tariffs on RF and trade partners disrupt global energy. Trump claims he has not received a response from Putin and calls it "a shame." He believes the war could be easily resolved but will be prolonged. US State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce states the US has considered all negative consequences of potential secondary sanctions against Russia. Ukraine expects to sell drones to the US and purchase the latest American weaponry (Stefanchuk). Head of Roskosmos, Bakanov, visited NASA Johnson Space Center. Trump will allow Ukrainians in the US to remain until the end of hostilities. US Treasury warned China that continued purchase of Russian oil will lead to significant tariffs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Trump doubts new sanctions will affect Russia, according to NYT. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Trump claimed Epstein "lured young employees" from his Mar-a-Lago beach spa club, according to Politico. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Старше Эдды reports on Kyiv's "megadeal" with the US, involving Ukraine selling drones and buying $10-30 billion in "latest American weaponry," and highlights US software being tested on Ukrainian drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russia doesn't care about Trump's 10-day ultimatum. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны reports NYT quoting Trump that tariffs on Russian oil will not stop Putin, but will unleash a trade war, indicating a continuation of the previous narrative and reinforcing RF resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump stated no delays on August 1 tariffs against 14 countries, indicating his commitment to his trade policy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Trump announced 25% tariffs on imports from India, effective August 1, citing India's trade with Russia as a reason, and stated tariffs could increase if secondary sanctions are introduced after his ultimatum. This reinforces US economic pressure on RF allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports Trump imposing 25% tariffs on India due to its trade with Russia, confirming US pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reiterates Trump's announcement of 25% tariffs on India with a penalty. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns interprets Trump's statement as a negative development, emphasizing India's energy and military ties to Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews reports that China will not refuse Russian oil, directly countering US demands. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Roscosmos Director General Bakanov visited NASA Johnson Space Center as part of his US trip to familiarize himself with NASA technologies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • United Kingdom: USA reportedly delivered nuclear weapons to Britain. UK PM Starmer states UK may recognize independent Palestine in September if Israel does not take "significant steps" to end "terrible situation" in Gaza. Israeli MFA rejects this statement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Thousands of Ozzy Osbourne fans gather in Birmingham to bid farewell. (No military significance). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок reports British (likely RAF RC-135 or E-3 Sentry) aircraft taking over watch over the Black Sea, indicating continued NATO ISR presence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Manhattan (US): Unknown assailant opened fire, killing five, injuring six, before suicide. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • North Korea: First airline flight from Pyongyang to Moscow, Russian schoolchildren wrote to Kim Jong Un. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • China: 30 fatalities, 80,000 evacuated in Beijing due to heavy rains and flooding. Trump claims his meeting with Xi Jinping will likely occur "before the end of the year." China rejected US ultimatum on Russian oil. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Russian and Chinese naval forces will conduct joint military exercises "Maritime Interaction - 2025" in the Pacific Fleet from August 1-5. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • France: Serious cyberattack on French defense industry (Naval Group, THALES, Dassault, Safran). Largest military data leak in history reported. Hackers reportedly stole submarine data from French defense giant Naval Group. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV reports a French military-industrial company announced a cyberattack on its infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports passenger train in France was robbed of €350,000, setting a record for rail theft in the country. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Germany: 150,000 Ukrainians of conscription age receive social benefits; CSU party demands cessation. Ukraine will receive 11 more IRIS-T complexes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Moldova: Intends to remove joint Russian-Moldovan "Moldovagaz" from August supply. Three opposition parties advocate for restoring relations with Russia. Moldova's President Sandu is now reportedly "against Western politicians" but also believes Moldova could join the EU by 2028. TASS reports Sandu accused Telegram of ignoring government requests and posing threats to state security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) CEC of Moldova reports EU countries have the right to interfere in Moldovan elections due to its EU aspirations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports Sandu's claims of Russian interference in Moldovan parliamentary elections, without providing evidence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Moldovan President Sandu states Russia wants to seize control of Moldova. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Estonia: Estonian MFA summoned Russian Charge d'Affaires to protest maritime border violation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Estonia proposed making wild boar canned meat for its army and Ukraine, indicating potential military aid discussions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Estonia proposed sending canned wild boar meat from African swine fever culling to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports Estonia proposed sending canned wild boar meat to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Lithuania: Alleged "Gerbera" UAVs over Lithuania. Lithuanian military chief states he would "like to shoot down drones over Belarus, but cannot." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Azerbaijan: Rybar reports "Azerbaijan arms the Armed Forces of Ukraine." Colonelcassad explicitly reports Azerbaijan is setting up serial production of 122mm and 152mm artillery shells for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Maria Zakharova stating Ukraine intends to use contradictions between RF and Azerbaijan to incite national hatred. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The SBU is preparing provocations to incite hostility between Russia and Azerbaijan, according to Zakharova. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Hungary: Hungarian Foreign Minister states the conflict in Ukraine will only be resolved through US-Russia agreement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Операция Z" / "Военкоры Русской Весны" video features Viktor Orbán stating it's "very difficult to unite a nation in a hopeless conflict," implying a negative outlook on the Ukrainian war and a political intention to pressure for negotiations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Gaza: Colonelcassad reports a Palestinian detonated a heavy Namer BMP by throwing a mine into a hatch, and displays video of a damaged Merkava tank. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports concert of Dina Rubina in Tashkent canceled after her comments on Gaza residents' killings. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Poland: Colonelcassad reports Poland facing serious operational problems with recently acquired 366 US Abrams tanks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports 32 people detained in Poland on suspicion of preparing sabotage for Russia, indicating continued RF intelligence activity and efforts to destabilize. This is a significant internal security concern for Poland and NATO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Ukrainians are actively taking loans in Poland and repaying them responsibly, which may indicate a positive integration trend and economic activity but is not directly military relevant. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном video shows a damaged Polish PT-91 Twardy tank with "German crosses" (likely a misidentification or deliberate misrepresentation of national markings) in DNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports that Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk believes chances for a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia are high. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Polish PM Donald Tusk believes combat operations may halt soon. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна echoes Tusk's statement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Polish PM Tusk suggests there's a high probability the Russian-Ukrainian war will at least be suspended soon. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Syria: "Операция Z" (RF source) disseminates "Voenkor Russkoy Vesny" content alleging continued control of Syria by a secret "committee" of terrorist leaders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Chernivtsi Oblast (UA): Earthquake reported, minor disruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Romania: Severe flooding resulting in fatalities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Finland: President A. Stubb: Ukraine is doing well, the war must continue - Russia must be forced to the negotiating table. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • India: Three oil product tankers from the Indian-Russian Nayara refinery cannot unload after the refinery was sanctioned by the EU, Reuters reported. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ministers of Foreign Affairs from 15 countries support Palestinian statehood, according to French MFA. Politico reports EU countries want to request tens of billions of euros for weapons for Kyiv, indicating continued financial and military support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Politico reports EU is bogged down in debt, will borrow billions for weapons for Ukraine, indicating financial strain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Italy: TASS reports RF Ambassador to Rome summoned by Italian MFA due to publication on Russophobia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Australia: First Australian launch vehicle crashed 14 seconds after launch. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Easter Island: Evacuation of Easter Island began due to tsunami threat after Kamchatka earthquake. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UA Humanitarian Developments: Ukraine returned another three children from temporarily occupied territories and RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Office of Prosecutor General of Ukraine reports prosecutor charged with unlawful disability acquisition in Cherkasy region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора releases videos on World Day Against Trafficking in Persons, highlighting law enforcement efforts against human trafficking. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UA Internal Affairs: PrivatBank won a London court case against Kolomoisky and Boholyubov. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Court extended pre-trial detention for Liudmyla Chemerska, suspected in the assassination attempt on STERNENKO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Prosecutor General's Office reports 13 employees of state enterprises "Forests of Ukraine" and "LIATS" received suspicions for creating/participating in a criminal organization and receiving unlawful benefits, related to a scheme involving illegal reuse of timber tags and manipulation of wood accounting systems, indicating ongoing anti-corruption efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports Cabinet of Ministers approved digital "Diia.Card." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on the treason case of a military serviceman who allegedly transmitted information about UA Air Force aviation, including F-16 and Mirage 2000 bases, to the enemy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The SBU has exposed a "mole" pilot instructor within the Ukrainian Air Force who was leaking data related to F-16, Mirage 2000, and Su-24 aircraft to Russian intelligence, including coordinates and attack priorities. The instructor faces treason charges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) is investigating the death of a man in Mykolaiv who jumped from a bridge while fleeing law enforcement and TCC personnel, indicating continued challenges related to mobilization efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports that the SBU has detained another RF "mole" in the Ukrainian Air Force who was preparing strikes on airfields where F-16s and Mirage 2000s are based, indicating a significant counter-intelligence success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office reports a scammer detained for attempting to employ a woman in a leadership position for €25,000. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UA Healthcare: Oleksandr Vilkul (Kryvyi Rih official) posted multiple photos showing ongoing renovation and modernization of basic hospitals in the city. While not directly military, this indicates efforts to sustain and improve civilian healthcare infrastructure which indirectly supports wartime resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Kyiv: Strong thunderstorms and heavy rain forecasted, impacting aerial reconnaissance, drone operations, and ground mobility. Power outages affect ~30,000 families. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kyiv experienced a flooded urban street due to heavy rain, causing disruptions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Rostov Oblast (RF): Fire at Salsk railway station and a traction substation in Orlovsky will impact RF logistics. Extensive fires indicate severe air quality degradation and reduced visibility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Leningrad Oblast (RF): Large fire (1,200 sq. meters) involving cardboard and household waste in Lepsari village. Roof collapse (600 sq. meters). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Chernivtsi Oblast: Earthquake reported, minor disruption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• China (Beijing): Heavy rains and flooding causing significant casualties and evacuations will divert internal resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Romania: Severe flooding resulting in fatalities will divert internal resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kursk Oblast (RF): Fire at a gas station, likely from UA strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Yekaterinburg (RF): Building collapse. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Moscow (RF): Fire at a construction site. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a fire at a bus parking lot in Kubinka near Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Astrakhan (RF): Building collapse due to gas explosion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports rescue efforts for a cat in a collapsed building in Astrakhan, indicating continued civilian rescue operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA also provided a video of the cat rescue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ukrainian MVS reports radiation levels are currently normal (0.14 mSv/hr). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The IAEA has also confirmed that the radiation background at Zaporizhzhia NPP is normal. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kamchatka, Sakhalin (RF Far East):
  • Significant earthquakes (M7.1, M7.9, M8.5, updated to M8.8) and resulting tsunami threats and evacuations. Strong aftershocks (up to M7.5) will continue for at least a month.
  • Port Severo-Kurilsk and "Alaid" fish processing plant flooded by tsunami wave, with vessels torn from moorings.
  • Residents of Sakhalin returned home. No destruction in Severo-Kurilsk reported by operational services. Port Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky working normally. Communication restored in Kamchatka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF sources indicate the earthquake was anticipated for 30 years and preparations were made. Tsunami observed on Kurilsk Lake with no casualties. Tsunami warning issued for Alaska, Hawaii, and US Pacific Coast. Video from Hawaii shows urban traffic congestion. State of Emergency declared in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. Educational, cultural, and sports institutions will be closed on 31 JUL in Severo-Kurilsk. Temporary accommodation points for residents fearing to stay in their homes have been deployed in Kamchatka. TASS indicates a 20-second warning time for dangerous oscillations from the earthquake. Damage to kindergarten № 15 in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky confirmed, but no casualties. No damage to energy infrastructure identified. Medics who continued operations during earthquake to be presented with state awards. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) France's overseas territories of French Polynesia and the Marquesas Islands have declared a tsunami threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports scientists in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky expect aftershocks up to M7.5 and possible tsunamis on Avacha Bay coast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports tsunami threat on Kamchatka cancelled. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Regular flights to Severo-Kurilsk landing site canceled due to flooding threat on the runway. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports temporary flight cancellations to Severo-Kurilsk due to runway flooding, confirming ongoing disruptions from the earthquake. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The eruption of Klyuchevskaya Sopka volcano indicates a new environmental factor that could affect air quality and flight operations in the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo confirms tsunami threat on Kamchatka is cancelled, with aftershocks "on the way down," indicating the immediate environmental crisis is receding. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Evacuation on Easter Island initiated due to tsunami threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Bryansk Oblast (RF): Forecasted thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds (15-18 m/s) on 31 JUL 25 will lead to power supply disruptions, property damage, and agricultural losses, which could impact internal stability and resource allocation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns video shows an explosion on a lake surface near individuals fishing in Bryansk Oblast, attributed to "Ukrainians helping to stun fish," which is a likely false flag or misattribution of an incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Force Dispositions:
  • Air Assets: Multiple strategic bombers (6x Tu-95MS, 2x Tu-160), MiG-31K aircraft (3x airborne), and dozens of Shahed drones posing nationwide missile threats. Tactical aviation active in Eastern and North-Eastern directions, launching KABs on Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. RF MoD claims 74 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight. RF continues to test new optical laser drone destruction schemes. Construction of aircraft shelters (caponiers) at airfields suggests increased protection for air assets. RF MoD released footage of drone operations, showing targeting of various UA assets including AQ-400 KOCA, LELEKA-100, BABA-YAGA, HPTK, PICKUP, BBM, and AVTO. Colonelcassad's video report details claimed effective strikes on UA personnel, armored vehicles, artillery, EW stations, command posts, ammunition depots, and air defense systems. RF drone operators demonstrate capability to destroy a UA M777 Howitzer using drones. RF sources release videos depicting mass burning of UA transport in Kupyansk using "Groza" EW system. RF drone footage claims destruction of a UA "Yaga" drone. RF forces are employing up to 250 FPV drones per day in the Kherson area. Colonelcassad's new video shows Lancet UAVs detecting and liquidating enemy equipment in 15 minutes. Воин DV provides video of 11th Guards Army Air Force and Air Defense bombers using FABs to destroy UA temporary deployment points (PVD) near Iskra. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows night strikes on Pavlohrad, Kharkiv, Ochakiv, Honcharivske, consistent with RF air doctrine. RF sources claim drone operators of 5th Guards Tank Brigade, 36th Army, Group Vostok, are destroying 31st Mechanized Brigade tanks near Yanvarskoye after a failed UA counterattack, with infantry dispersed/destroyed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF MoD claims PVO shot down 2 guided aerial bombs and 133 UAVs over 24 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Russian "Voenkor Kotenok" shares video compilation of Russian UAVs striking stationary and mobile targets, including Ukrainian transport, in the SVO zone, highlighting active drone use for targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports RF aviation, UAVs, missile forces and artillery struck UA transport infrastructure, robotic complexes warehouse, temporary deployment points, and foreign mercenaries in 156 areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV provides additional video showing a vehicle in a wooded area, with text overlay, suggesting a frontline operation, potentially reconnaissance or movement under fire, with an explosion nearby. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo claims a night operation by RF hit logistics and air defense, eliminating up to 200 AFU "militants" (UA personnel), though the number of casualties is unverified. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) MoD Russia photo messages highlight the "progress of special military operation," likely to showcase RF military activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video shows ZALA Z-16 reconnaissance drones providing targeting for MLRS strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The 29th Army Spetsnaz unit (Vostok Group of Forces) destroyed fortifications, drones, and self-propelled artillery of the AFU in the South Donetsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad video shows continuous aviation and artillery work by RF, striking UA warehouses and temporary deployment points. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia video shows continued destruction of enemy targets by RF forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video shows Russian Guard (Rosgvardiya) engaging the enemy on the Vovchansk direction, indicating their continued involvement in frontline combat operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews video shows "Zaad [Ambush] 'Kozak'", which is a compilation of drone footage, indicating RF drone reconnaissance and strike capabilities against enemy vehicles and personnel, including thermal imaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad video shows drone operators of the 5th Guards Tank Brigade, 36th Army, "Vostok" Group of Forces, finishing off a 31st Mechanized Brigade AFU tank near Yanvarskoye after a failed counterattack, with enemy infantry dispersed/destroyed. This highlights RF drone capabilities in combined arms operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Fighterbomber video shows a dramatic sky with cumulonimbus clouds and lightning, captioned "Грозы вам от экипажа," which may be a reference to air operations during adverse weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны provides video footage of a powerful strike on Kharkiv Oblast, showing a large plume of dark smoke, claiming a UA Armed Forces warehouse was hit. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: Persistent offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk axis (Dimitrov/Myrnohrad, Rodinskoye), and in Zaporizhzhia (Kamenskoye sector, Huliaipole). Achieved lodgement in Avdiivka industrial zone and launched new southern push. First combat deployment of "Sarmat-2" UGV near Bakhmut. RF units reportedly continue to apply small group tactics. Rybar highlights "Battle for the Asian Highway" focus. RF paratroopers from the 7th Airborne Division of Zaporizhzhia released a video requesting assistance for drones and Starlink systems. Video released by "Два майора" shows military personnel inspecting and marking mortar rounds. RF sources "Дневник Десантника" and "Операция Z" show footage of RF ground units attacking UA positions. RF sources (Триколор / SpN Akhmat) show RF soldiers preparing and firing mortar rounds. RF sources claim RF 64th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 35th Army Group "Vostok" destroying UA personnel and materiel near Huliaipole. MoD Russia video shows 'Zapad Group of Forces' Grad MLRS crews engaging clusters of AFU manpower in LNR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kadyrov_95 video shows tactical drone footage of an explosion in a forested area, followed by a damaged position with a Ukrainian flag, then soldiers maneuvering near a trench; this indicates continued reconnaissance and engagement activities by Kadyrov's forces. "Народная милиция ДНР" video shows supplies being loaded onto a truck with pro-Russian markings, indicating ongoing logistical support and recruitment efforts. "Народная милиция ДНР" also claims destruction of a UA ZIL-131 cargo truck by 56th Separate Special Purpose Brigade, providing drone footage of moving trucks as evidence of RF surveillance capabilities. RF Marine artillerymen from Dnepr Group of Forces destroy an AFU stronghold in Kherson region using self-propelled howitzer. RF artillery conducted strikes on AFU positions at a farm in Bilenke. Colonelcassad's video shows a robotic platform ("Teleg" Robotic Platform) used for delivering supplies to the frontline. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia video shows 'Tsentr Group of Forces' UAV operators adjusting rocket artillery fire in Krasnoarmeysk direction, confirming coordinated drone-artillery operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) A Russian motorcyclist was reportedly burned to death on the road to Avdiivka's coke plant, despite an anti-drone net. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Басурин о главном video shows a damaged armored vehicle, likely a Polish PT-91 Twardy tank, indicating ongoing ground combat and equipment losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора photo messages show Russian soldiers handling grenades and other ordnance in what is labeled "soldier's everyday life," indicating ongoing small-unit level operations and readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad video shows a damaged military truck on a dirt road near Yablonovka in Sumy Oblast, claimed as "Road of Death" for Ukrainian militants' equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS video shows Putin acknowledging the bravery of SVO fighters from KChR, indicating continued support and motivation for troops. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) WarGonzo video features a "Somali" battalion soldier recounting a combat encounter where his T-80 BVM tank survived an RPG hit due to reactive armor and "mantel" (cage/bar armor), highlighting RF tank survivability and modifications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Филолог в засаде has released a video depicting Russian soldiers in a relaxed setting, playing music and appearing to be in downtime, which may be part of RF's efforts to show morale or positive aspects of military life. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» shares a video, likely from a drone, showing a white truck being hit by a kamikaze drone and destroyed, with a caption claiming it was full of Ukrainian soldiers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники provides a video of a Russian soldier speaking about their unit, the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division, 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade, and their movement through a wooded area, suggesting continued ground operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) MoD Russia released a video of an awarding ceremony for servicemen of the 228th Motorised Rifle Regiment (Tsentr Group of Forces), likely to boost morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС has released a video showing Russian soldiers on motorcycles, potentially a reconnaissance or rapid deployment unit, indicating evolving ground tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews reports RF army outflanking UA soldiers in a tense front-line battle, indicating continued ground pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV video shows a concealed position being struck and destroyed by an aerial asset, likely a drone, indicating a successful strike against a hidden enemy position. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures:
    • Ukraine-wide Air Alert: Active due to ballistic missile threat and UAV activity. UA Air Force issued a general attention alert and continues providing updated information on enemy strike UAV movements. UA Air Force warns of KABs in northern Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Ballistic missile threat for Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted, and nationwide ballistic missile threat cleared. A new nationwide air raid alert has been issued due to MiG-31K takeoff. MiG-31K threat has been cleared. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Air raid alert for Kyiv has been cleared. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been cleared. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) New UAV threat detected for Poltava. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Aviation munitions threat declared for Synelnykivskyi district. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • RF Internal Internet/Communication Restrictions: Mobile internet restricted in Tyumen, Udmurtia, Sverdlovsk. Demand for wired internet growing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Roskomnadzor (RKN) restricted access to Speedtest service, recommending Russian alternatives, indicating ongoing information control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Mandatory messenger 'Max' for digital signature documents in Russia indicates further centralization of digital services. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Documents for electronic signatures will now pass only through the messenger 'Max'. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Roskomnadzor blocked Speedtest service. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports Roskomnadzor blocked Speedtest service due to security threats to the Russian internet. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports majority of Russians support 'Max' messenger due to perceived security and functionality. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Information that Max messenger will become mandatory for signing electronic documents is not true, according to the Ministry of Digital Development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RKN states Speedtest data can be used to plan and conduct attacks on Russian communication networks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Хабаровский край Police reports that the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia warns citizens about the spread of unreliable information. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports Shaman informed RKN about a fake website collecting military data, indicating ongoing efforts to combat phishing and protect military data. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) CyberBoroshno reports that the "GoVPN" service has stopped working for most users in Russia due to blocks on VPN protocols, specifically OpenVPN and WireGuard, indicating intensified RF internet censorship. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • Federal Level (RF Logistics): Gasoline exports restricted until August 31. 20 checkpoints on border with Ukraine to close August 1. "Главпродукт" now state-owned. Ban on Chinese trucks Dongfeng, Foton, Faw, Sitrak in the Russian market. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Rosaviatsiya has annulled the certificate of the Irkutsk airline "Angara" for aircraft maintenance, which could impact civilian aviation readiness and spare parts availability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
    • RF Internal Security: Fines for unregistered tenants in Moscow. FSB prevented terror attack in Rostov-on-Don. Tajikistan declares hunt for "Crocus" terror attack suspect. Administrative cases opened against teenagers for social behavior. Two Russian citizens sentenced for collecting data on RF MoD facilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Criminal liability now threatened for aggressive driving/drifting in Moscow, indicating tightening social control. TASS reports two more participants in the 2000 attack on Pskov paratroopers' 6th Company received sentences of 17 and 14 years, indicating continued long-term prosecution of past conflicts. ASTRA reports Head of Azerbaijani diaspora in Urals declared wanted. TASS reports a state of emergency has been introduced in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky due to the earthquake, indicating a formal top-down response to the disaster. FSB stripped citizenship of a "Wahhabi" in Rostov Oblast for national security threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Moscow police detained a married couple for collecting military intelligence on Moscow and Moscow Oblast facilities for Ukrainian intelligence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports searches at the Ingushetia Ministry of Education and Science. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ASTRA reports a woman detained in Leningrad Oblast in connection with the "Citizens of the USSR" extremist organization case, indicating continued crackdowns on internal dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns reports on the same individual, stating he was previously detained and released. Alex Parker Returns video shows alleged teenage vandals attacking trains in Moscow Oblast, noting their prior impunity and recent apprehension, highlighting RF internal law enforcement actions against social disorder. Another video from Alex Parker Returns shows a black trash bag containing human remains on a train platform, suggesting a grim domestic incident. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns video shows an alleged phone theft in Khimki and subsequent police detention of a migrant, highlighting an internal security and social issue in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Новости Москвы reports fines for illegal taxi services at airports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Север.Реалии reports a St. Petersburg resident accused of demonstrating banned symbols. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) An 18-year-old resident of Ivanovo Oblast accused a previously convicted Russian serviceman of rape. He has not been detained. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports temporary housing for earthquake victims in Kamchatka, indicating social welfare measures by the RF government. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports Moscow OMON "Avangard" inviting recruits for service, specifically not for the SVO, but for internal security at significant public venues in Moscow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns video shows tearing down a portrait of Kadyrov in Sevastopol, indicating internal dissent or nationalist opposition to Chechen influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns video shows a young Uzbek expressing his thoughts on Russian people in St. Petersburg, highlighting potential ethnic tensions and internal social issues in Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports adolescents in Kuban are accused of arson on railway infrastructure on behalf of an unknown handler, indicating continued sabotage attempts likely orchestrated from outside Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS video shows a roadside stop by traffic police involving individuals in military-style camouflage uniforms, some being apprehended, suggesting internal security issues or discipline problems within the military. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports a Russian citizen's body found in Istanbul with a garbage bag over head and Russian note in hand, indicating a possible homicide and internal security concern. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Ukraine (Internal Security & Border Control): SBU and National Police conducting security measures in Kyiv (Desnyanskyi district). Prosecutor General's Office actively investigating corruption, including former TCC head. Cyber Police participating in international law enforcement operation "Checkmate." Ukraine blocked YouTube channels of sanctioned blogger Andriy Lugansky. Ukraine returned another teenager from occupation (now confirmed as three children). SBU counterintelligence detained three RF spotters. GUR cyber specialists claim to have obtained evidence of mass kidnapping of Ukrainian children from TOT. ASTRA reports Ukraine's intelligence claims to have received further evidence of Russia abducting Ukrainian children from occupied territories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Office of Prosecutor General of Ukraine reports a prosecutor charged with unlawful disability acquisition in Cherkasy region, indicating ongoing anti-corruption efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatyvnyi ZSU reports the head of the Asset Recovery and Management Agency (ARMA) was dismissed today by the Cabinet of Ministers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) PrivatBank won a London court case against Kolomoisky and Boholyubov. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Court extended pre-trial detention for Liudmyla Chemerska, suspected in the assassination attempt on STERNENKO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Prosecutor General's Office reports 13 employees of state enterprises "Forests of Ukraine" and "LIATS" received suspicions for creating/participating in a criminal organization and receiving unlawful benefits, related to a scheme involving illegal reuse of timber tags and manipulation of wood accounting systems, indicating ongoing anti-corruption efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports a man wanted for double murder in Cherkasy Oblast shot himself during negotiations with law enforcement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора highlights World Day Against Trafficking in Persons, detailing their law enforcement efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports Cabinet of Ministers approved digital "Diia.Card." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the detention of a military serviceman accused of treason for transmitting information about UA Air Force aviation, including F-16 and Mirage 2000 bases, to the enemy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports the SBU detained a "mole" in the Ukrainian Air Force who was preparing strikes on F-16 and Mirage 2000 airfields. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO and РБК-Україна confirm the SBU exposed a "mole" pilot instructor within the Ukrainian Air Force who was leaking data related to F-16 and Mirage 2000 aircraft to Russian intelligence, including coordinates and attack priorities. This is a significant counter-intelligence success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The DBR is investigating the death of a man in Mykolaiv who jumped from a bridge while fleeing law enforcement and TCC personnel, indicating continued challenges related to mobilization efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Военкор Котенок also reports on the Mykolaiv incident, framing it from a Russian perspective as a man dying "running from 'manhunters'," which is a propaganda narrative to highlight forced mobilization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк reports that the SBU has detained another RF "mole" in the Ukrainian Air Force who was preparing strikes on airfields where F-16s and Mirage 2000s are based, indicating a significant counter-intelligence success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office reports a scammer detained for attempting to employ a woman in a leadership position for €25,000. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports on "manhunters" in Odesa forcing a street cleaner into a bus for mobilization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Ukraine (Government): Rada Committee voted for Zelenskyy's NABU and SAP bill after second attempt. Zelenskyy signed a bill to provide real weight and benefits for the "Cross of Military Merit" award. Zelenskyy states cabinet prepared "Contract 18-24" program to attract more motivated young soldiers for drone operations. Zelenskyy states deal finalized with partners for $400M to finance Ukrainian drone production. UA Cabinet of Ministers seeks to attract 400 billion UAH for security and defense sector financing. MP Ruslan Horbenko states military salaries in the rear are planned to increase 2.5 times. Head of ARMA, Olena Duma, has resigned. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukrainian government plans to expand conditions for mobilization deferral. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that Prime Minister Shmyhal announced a new "Contract 18-24" program for drone operators in the AFU, National Guard, and State Border Guard Service, offering a clear two-year service term, indicating efforts to bolster specialized personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBK-Україна reports an expansion of the "Contract 18-24" program, offering a clear two-year service term for drone operators. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBK-Україна reports plans to expand conditions for mobilization deferment, which could impact manpower availability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RBK-Україна reports that women with medical or pharmaceutical education will be automatically put on military register without personal presence, which could expand the pool of military-registered personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports that the Law Enforcement Committee of the Verkhovna Rada supported the presidential draft law on NABU and SAP, indicating progress on anti-corruption reforms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad reports on Ukraine's "Contract 18-24" program, framing it as an attempt to attract young men, focusing on the proposed one-year deferment from mobilization, highlighting its perceived limitations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ video shows the Law Enforcement Committee of the Verkhovna Rada supporting the presidential draft law on NABU and SAP, indicating progress on anti-corruption reforms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports that the Cabinet of Ministers has approved a mechanism for paying 15 million UAH to the families of fallen volunteers, with 20% immediately and 80% over 40 months. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The General Staff of the AFU has released operational information as of 16:00, 30.07.2025. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukrainian Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko visited Zaporizhzhia for a working trip. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Friendly Forces (Training): UA Airborne Assault Forces conduct night training. General Staff of AFU reports training on International Humanitarian Law and Operation INTERFLEX in UK. Ukrainian Ground Forces report 3 killed, 18 wounded from missile strike on training facility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) General Staff of AFU posts photo messages showing various UA military training activities, emphasizing readiness, strength, and confidence, likely to boost morale and counter RF narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ photo message highlights the readiness of vehicles and drone protection for a combat support battalion, demonstrating adaptive logistics and defense measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ОТУ "Харків" photo message shows artillerymen of the 48th Separate Artillery Brigade in action, captioned "No matter how hot it gets, artillerymen of the 48th OABr make it hell for the enemy 🔥," indicating continued offensive operations and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України photo messages feature a soldier with an anti-aircraft missile system, with the caption "Destroying planes is not a feat - it's our job," emphasizing professionalism and commitment to air defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Два майора is collecting donations for 100 medical backpacks for a combat medic, indicating continued support efforts for frontline medical personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Staff for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) has met with the families of servicemen from the 101st Separate Brigade of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, demonstrating ongoing support and communication regarding POW issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides a photo message indicating free training and employment opportunities in logistics for veterans. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of "tandem combat work" by Ukrainian drone operators from the "SIGNUM" battalion of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, showing reconnaissance and likely a strike on a camouflaged structure, possibly a fortified position. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС has released a video showing precision strikes by FPV drones of the "Vidarr" unit of the 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade against enemy positions. The caption is highly aggressive, threatening RF personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Ukraine (Defense Industry): Zelenskyy visited a defense enterprise in Kyiv Oblast producing critical components. Dnipropetrovsk regional administration reports over 3 billion UAH allocated for defense support, 70% funded. Kharkiv regional administration confirms systemic support for defense forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) "Укрексімбанк" financed a natural juice producer "Eco-Sphere" for 135 million UAH. While not directly military, this indicates continued economic activity and financial support within Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Russian Internal Affairs: TASS reports discussion in the State Duma on creating digital services for emergency assistance to tourists abroad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews reports a comedian was removed from a flight for drunken behavior, indicating civilian enforcement actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Russian Information Environment: Radio Svoboda will resume broadcasting on medium waves on 1 AUG, after being suspended in June. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS video shows Dmitry Peskov responding to TASS questions on a briefing, addressing living under sanctions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Kotsnews releases part 2 of a documentary on "Luka's Crew", likely for propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad provides a summary of Dmitry Peskov's statements, which will likely be amplified by state media to shape public perception. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна video shows Peskov boasting about Russia's "immunity to sanctions" after Trump's threats, indicating RF's attempt to project economic resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS reports UnHerd columnist Thomas Frazey suggests the wave of criticism against Zelenskyy in the West may indicate preparation for his replacement by a politician more suited for a frozen or settled conflict, which is an RF narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns reports on the SVR's alleged secret meeting in the Alps involving US, UK, Yermak, Budanov, and Zaluzhny, discussing Zelenskyy's replacement with Zaluzhny and a timeline for ending martial law, which is a major RF disinformation campaign. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Рыбарь reports "London blackmail," which is a photo message with a complex visual implying financial pressure, possibly related to sanctions or international finance, consistent with RF propaganda against Western economic policies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Старше Эдды shares a photo message arguing that Western "think-tanks" are feeding "rabble" (common people) with "shit" and that Russia will be "invincible" as a result, indicating a strong anti-Western propaganda narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Colonelcassad released photo messages of a "Big collection of aid for children of Donbas and in the SVO zone!" (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Ukrainian Local Governance: Dnipropetrovsk OVA (Regional State Administration) held a dialogue between authorities and businesses focusing on export/import, customs, and tax issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Oleksandr Vilkul's posts about renovating hospitals in Kryvyi Rih illustrate local government efforts to maintain civilian services during wartime. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration) video shows the liquidation of consequences of enemy shelling in Vasyshcheve village, demonstrating local government response to attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Local Civil Vehicles: "Два майора" shares photo messages of two silver sedans parked near a children's playground in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, attributed to the governor. The vehicles are civilian, no military markings are visible, and the message content is not explicitly tactical. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TASS shares photo messages of damaged playground equipment and debris, with the caption that the AFU struck a playground in Vasilyevka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, injuring two children. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Mash на Донбассе shares photos of damage to a playground and a residential building in Vasilyevka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claiming it was hit by UA forces, injuring two children. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
      • Manufacturing: Igor Artamonov (RF source) released a video on electric vehicle manufacturing in Lipetsk, focusing on "Evolute" vehicles, indicating efforts to develop domestic civilian industry, which could have dual-use applications or contribute to economic resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.4. Intelligence Gaps (Updated)

• RF Attack on Kursk (Kurskaya NPP): The nature and extent of the alleged UA drone attack on Kurchatov, specifically targeting the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (Kurskaya NPP), remains unconfirmed. Requires immediate verification via IMINT, SIGINT, and OSINT from independent sources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Claims of Resistance to TCC in Occupied Territories: The veracity and scale of TASS's claim regarding "groups fighting TCC" in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts need independent verification. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kamchatka Earthquake/Tsunami Impact (RF Far East): Comprehensive assessment of damage to military/dual-use infrastructure, casualties, and resource diversion implications. While residents returned and ports operate, extent of long-term recovery resource allocation remains a gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Specifics on damage to "Alaid" fish processing plant and vessel moorings in Severo-Kurilsk, and reconciliation with TASS's "no destruction" claim, require further IMINT. The impact of the tsunami reaching California needs to be assessed for any broader geopolitical or logistical implications, beyond civilian safety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) While damage to kindergarten No. 15 is confirmed, a full assessment of overall infrastructure damage and its impact on the region's operational capacity is still needed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The broader impact of the Kamchatka earthquake on other affected areas ("Who else got it?") needs clarification. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The full assessment of the anticipated M7.5 aftershocks and their potential impact on infrastructure and population. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The full impact of the cancellation of regular flights to Severo-Kurilsk due to runway flooding on regional logistics and the broader earthquake recovery efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The specific environmental impact of the Klyuchevskaya Sopka volcano eruption and its potential to disrupt local air quality or flight operations in the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The specific impacts and response measures in Easter Island following the tsunami threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Intent for Novohryhorivka: The extent of RF forces' advance towards Novohryhorivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast after liberating Temirovka, and their immediate tactical objectives, remain unconfirmed. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• RF Propaganda on "Qatari Wahhabis": The origin, specific intent, and target audience for the highly inflammatory "Qatari Wahhabis" narrative, particularly its focus on "radicalization of Islam in Russia," are unclear. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Claims on Chasiv Yar: The veracity of TASS's claim that RF forces completely control approaches to Chasiv Yar and have cut off UA supply routes requires immediate independent verification via IMINT, SIGINT, and HUMINT. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Claims on Vovchansk Advance: The veracity and scale of TASS's claim that RF forces are advancing near Vovchansk on a 20 km front requires immediate independent verification via IMINT, SIGINT, and HUMINT. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Jet UAV Capabilities: Specific models, ranges, payloads, and intended tactics of the "jet UAVs" reportedly used by RF in the northern direction are unknown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF UGV Production/Deployment: Full scale of RF UGV production (e.g., "Sarmat-2", "Teleg") and their planned integration into wider ground operations remains unknown. Need to identify industrial facilities and training centers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Naval Modernization: Impact of reported collapse of RF key fleet renewal project on their Black Sea Fleet capability. Requires additional COMINT/ELINT. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The image from "Два майора" captioning "Kuznetsov: write off or not" indicates the status of the "Admiral Kuznetsov" aircraft carrier is still debated, reinforcing the intelligence gap on its long-term operational impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The message from "Два майора" about "rethinking the use of warships in new conditions" indicates a recognition within Russia of limitations or necessary adaptations for their naval doctrine, particularly in light of lessons learned from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This implies that the RF is re-evaluating the utility and vulnerability of its naval assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Personnel Mobilization: Extent of resistance to conscription within RF and the effectiveness of new recruitment tactics is unclear. Need to verify RF claims about "blocking detachments" and poor treatment of mobilized personnel within UA units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The video from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники showing a military serviceman's protest in Orsk provides some insight into domestic discontent related to social conditions, potentially impacting morale and recruitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The new report of relatives of military personnel being held for hours near a morgue requires assessment of its impact on morale and public perception of military welfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The DBR investigation into the Mykolaiv death incident related to TCC personnel requires close monitoring for broader implications on mobilization and public sentiment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The full implications of the TASS video showing a roadside stop involving individuals in military-style camouflage uniforms and police, specifically if it relates to desertion or internal military discipline. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The specific context and implications of the МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video titled "They send us to certain death," featuring a soldier from the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The exact nature of the "manhunters" operation in Odesa described by Colonelcassad, and its impact on local mobilization efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Nature of French Cyberattack: While a cyberattack on French defense industry is confirmed, the exact perpetrators, methods, and full extent of data exfiltration or system damage are unknown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The specific details of the passenger train robbery in France and any potential links to organized crime or state-sponsored sabotage, given the recent cyberattacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Azerbaijani Support to UA: The volume and timeline of deliveries of 122mm and 152mm artillery shells from Azerbaijan to UA needs immediate verification. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF "Italmas" UAV Development: Information on the capabilities, production, and intended deployment of the "Italmas" UAV, allegedly being tested in Sumy, is extremely limited. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Drone Interception Capability: Details of RF's "Yolka" air defense drone capabilities (range, speed, payload, effectiveness against various UAV types) are unknown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Security Targets: The targets and operational scope of RF's drone-interceptor units for "Putin's guards" are unclear. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• GPS Spoofing System Identification: The specific type and location of the sophisticated RF EW system responsible for GPS spoofing in Zaporizhzhia are still unidentified. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF "Electric Scooter" Doctrine: The scale of deployment and intended tactical doctrine for "combat electric scooters" is unclear. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Impact of Trump's Ultimatum: Immediate and long-term impact of Trump's "10-day deadline" on RF strategic decision-making, Western unity, and international support for Ukraine remains highly uncertain. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) The specific implications of Trump's doubts about new sanctions affecting Russia require further analysis. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) The precise impact of Trump's newly announced tariffs on India, and their stated link to India's trade with Russia, needs to be assessed for its broader economic and geopolitical implications on RF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UA Public Donation Trends: The specific reasons for the reported "dip" in public donations and its broader implications for public morale and sustained support require further analysis. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) STERNENKO's photo message confirms that 3 million UAH was collected for "rusorez" (a fundraiser related to drones/anti-Russian efforts), but it's "not enough." This suggests a possible gap in funding for ongoing needs, rather than a general "dip" in donations. The overall trend remains a gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Claimed Losses: Independent verification of RF claims of heavy Ukrainian losses on various fronts, as reported by Colonelcassad and the "Zapad" Grouping, is required, particularly the claim of 200 UA personnel killed in Chernihiv and the destruction of numerous UA quadcopters/control points. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) WarGonzo's claim of "up to 200 militants" eliminated in a night operation needs independent verification. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• RF Internal Repression: The full scale and methodology of the "foreign agent" campaign against Russian journalists and dissidents, and the broadening of administrative cases for social behaviors, requires further investigation into their long-term impact on social cohesion and dissent. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) The specific context of the Russian citizen's body found in Istanbul and whether it relates to internal security operations or criminal activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Mortar Round Marking: The purpose and implications of RF units marking mortar rounds with blue markers require further ISR and HUMINT. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• Effectiveness of RF "Groza" EW: Independent verification of RF claims regarding the "Groza" EW system's effectiveness in "mass burning" UA transport in Kupyansk is required. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• RF "Anti-Drone Screens": Details on the specifications, deployment, and effectiveness of these new "anti-drone screens" being distributed to RF units are unknown. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) The effectiveness of the anti-drone net on the RF motorcyclist in Avdiivka, given his reported death, needs to be assessed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF FPV Drone Usage (Kherson): While volume (250/day) is reported, specifics on RF FPV drone models, C2, and counter-measures employed against UA EW in the Kherson sector are unknown. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• Polish Abrams Operational Issues: The nature and extent of "serious operational problems" with Polish Abrams tanks are unclear. (CONFIDENCE: LOW) The specific unit and location of the damaged Polish PT-91 Twardy tank with "German crosses" requires verification, as does the claim of "German crosses." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Fiber-Optic Drone Capabilities: The full operational capabilities, range, and deployment doctrine of these fiber-optic drones are unknown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Mexican Cartel Disinformation: The origin and specific intent behind the "Mexican cartel" disinformation narrative require further investigation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Belgorod Oblast Governor's Report: The specific content and implications of the Belgorod Oblast Governor's latest report are missing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The precise condition of the wounded man in Belgorod Oblast requires further detail. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Specifics of TCC/ARTA Corruption Cases: While the arrests/resignations of the former TCC head and ARMA head are confirmed, the full details of their alleged corruption and the extent of their impact on mobilization/resource management are unclear. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The details of the scam involving the Prosecutor General's Office employee recruitment and its broader implications for internal security and anti-corruption efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kharkiv Damage Assessment: The full extent of damage and precise number of casualties in Kharkiv's Shevchenkivskyi district from the night attack needs further confirmation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The full extent of damage and precise number of casualties from the RF strike on Kharkiv district/suburb needs further confirmation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The specific nature of the damage and precise casualty figures in Vasyshcheve village (Kharkiv Oblast) from the suspected Iskander strike requires further confirmation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The precise target, full extent of damage, and any secondary effects of the alleged UA Armed Forces warehouse hit in Kharkiv Oblast require independent verification. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kamenskoye Casualties: The precise number of fatalities in Kamenskoye is still fluid, with initial reports of 4 killed from ASTRA and later 3 from Ukrainian sources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Internet/Communication Restrictions: The full scope and impact of growing demand for wired internet in Russia due to mobile internet interruptions during UAV attacks, and its potential impact on military/civilian communications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Donetsk Fire Extent: The full extent of the strong fire in Kuibyshevsky district of Donetsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Drone Activity (Low over Russia): The specific reasons for RF claiming lower drone activity over Russian regions overnight, contrasting with large drone attacks on Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Severo-Kurilsk Damage: The TASS claim of "no destruction" in Severo-Kurilsk despite earlier reports of tsunami impact on port and processing plant, requires independent verification. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zakaharova's Condemnations: The full impact and reception of Maria Zakharova's strong condemnations of Lviv mayor's proposal and US actions in Palestine within Russian and international information spaces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The impact of Maria Zakharova's statement regarding Ukraine inciting national hatred between RF and Azerbaijan. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Polish Officials Discrediting: The specific context and target of the "Басурин о главном" photo message on "Polish panov" (Polish lords/gentlemen) and their alleged inability to think. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian Defense Reforms (Aug 1 Changes): The specific impact of changes from August 1 (fines, multi-card payments, "Diia" tickets) on Ukrainian society and economy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Detailed assessment of the implications of the meeting between the Coordination Staff on POWs and the 53rd Mechanized Brigade for POW issues and family support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The meeting between the Coordination Staff on POWs and the 101st Separate Brigade of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on POW issues requires further detailed assessment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full analysis of "Операция Z" / "Военкоры Русской Весны" photo messages regarding protests in Kyiv, including estimated turnout, specific demands, and potential for escalation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and specific messages conveyed by "Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» photo message on "Russia is a country of heroes!". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Veracity and full context of Старше Эдды video message claiming Bezuhlaya stated RF troops are in Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Detailed breakdown of the supplies and their intended recipients in the "Народная милиция ДНР" video message about "SVO Assistance Fund". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Precise targeting and impact assessment of the "Iskander strikes on Ukrainian militant camp" video from MoD Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full visual and damage assessment from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" photos of Pavlohrad railway station, including secondary effects. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Detailed inventory and strategic implications of the equipment delivered to Zaporizhzhia front as shown in 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 video. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and specific arguments presented in "Два майора" photo message about Donald Trump books. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Specific visual evidence and narrative intent of Kotsnews photo message "Camchatka. Earthquake. The most resilient!". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Comprehensive visual analysis of РБК-Україна photo/video messages on Kamchatka earthquake/tsunami, including specific locations and scale of impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Detailed tactical and strategic implications of Kadyrov_95 video on Sheikh Mansur battalion operations, including unit identification and specific objectives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and propaganda message of Colonelcassad video "Documentary film about the legendary 'Luka's Crew' — Part 2". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and propaganda message of "Басурин о главном" video "Heroes Among Us", including analysis of the medical procedure shown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of TASS video on sentencing of Pskov paratroopers' attackers, including details of correctional facility operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" video on new graves in Tula, including visual analysis of the cemetery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of STERNENKO photo "Unpaid drones destroy occupants", including assessment of tactical value. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video on Iskander strikes in Chernihiv Oblast, including detailed analysis of aerial footage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of TASS video on Japan tsunami situation and fire station, including analysis of infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of Zelenskyy, Synegubov, Zaporizhzhia OVA, KMVA videos with "On land, at sea, in the sky..." caption, including analysis of patriotic messaging. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of "Два майора" message "They write to us:". (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" video on FPV drone ambushes in Sumy Oblast, including detailed analysis of tactical footage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of ASTRA photo on Polish sabotage arrests, including analysis of the visual elements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of "Z комитет + карта СВО" photo on unit emblems, including analysis of the emblems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of Alex Parker Returns photo on Zaluzhny's photo, including analysis of the propaganda angle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of РБК-Україна photo on e-cigarettes, including analysis of the commercial product display. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of General Staff of AFU photos on combat training, including detailed analysis of military training activities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of "Воин DV" video on tank destruction near Yanvarskoye, including analysis of the drone strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" photo on RF "chariot", including analysis of the vehicle. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of "Народная милиция ДНР" video on ZIL-131 destruction, including analysis of drone surveillance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of "Операция Z" / "Военкоры Русской Весны" video on Pokrovsk battles, including analysis of aerial reconnaissance and strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of ASTRA video on Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky state of emergency, including analysis of EMERCOM response. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of "Новости Москвы" photo on allergies, including analysis of the civilian context. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of "Филолог в засаде" text on expert community critique, including analysis of the internal Russian narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of General Staff of AFU photo on drone interception statistics, including analysis of the graphic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of Colonelcassad photo on Chernihiv strike details, including analysis of informational alerts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of TASS video/photo on Belgorod drone attack damage, including analysis of the urban scene and damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Full content and implications of ASTRA photo on Azerbaijani diaspora leader, including analysis of the political</content> </previous_situation_report> <previous_daily_report> <content>### 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Russian Forces (RF) have intensified offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk axis, successfully securing a foothold in the Avdiivka industrial zone and initiating a new push from the south, indicating a concerted effort to achieve a tactical encirclement. (NEW) Concurrently, the first confirmed combat deployment of the Russian "Sarmat-2" Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) near Bakhmut represents a significant evolution in RF ground tactics. (NEW) The air and missile threat to rear areas, particularly Odesa, remains HIGH following the confirmed resupply of Kalibr cruise missiles to the Black Sea Fleet.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• Avdiivka Axis: RF pressure has transitioned from probing attacks to a confirmed ground assault, achieving a lodgment in the eastern Avdiivka industrial zone. A new southern axis of advance has been opened, a significant change from the previous focus on the northern flank.
• Bakhmut Axis: The tactical situation has evolved with the introduction of the "Sarmat-2" UGV in a fire support role, a previously unobserved capability on this front. RF efforts to regain lost positions near Klishchiivka and Andriivka have intensified, shifting from localized counter-attacks to more coordinated assaults.
• Logistics (Crimea): The threat to the Black Sea Fleet has been updated following confirmation of Kalibr missile replenishment at the port of Sevastopol, elevating the immediate maritime strike threat.
• Electronic Warfare (EW): Enemy EW activity has notably increased in intensity and sophistication along the Zaporizhzhia front, shifting from general disruption to targeted GPS spoofing against our precision-guided munitions (PGMs).

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Ground Threat: HIGH (Avdiivka, Bakhmut), MEDIUM (Zaporizhzhia). The primary threat is the RF's renewed capability for coordinated, multi-axis assaults in Avdiivka. The introduction of UGVs in Bakhmut presents a new tactical challenge for our frontline units, potentially increasing the effectiveness of enemy assaults on fortified positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Air/Missile Threat: HIGH (Odesa, Mykolaiv), MEDIUM (Other rear areas). The confirmed resupply of Kalibr missiles to naval platforms in Sevastopol significantly increases the likelihood of imminent, large-scale missile strikes against southern port infrastructure and energy facilities within the next 24-72 hours. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• EW Threat: HIGH (Zaporizhzhia). The increased sophistication of Russian EW, specifically GPS spoofing, poses a direct and immediate threat to the effectiveness of our PGM and UAV operations along the Robotyne-Verbove salient. This capability degrades our ability to conduct precision strikes on high-value targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Avdiivka-Donetsk Axis:
  • Over the past 24 hours, elements of the 1st Army Corps, likely reinforced with mobilized personnel, conducted a multi-pronged assault on Avdiivka.
  • Confirmed: RF units have established a foothold in the eastern industrial zone ("promzone"). The depth of penetration is currently being assessed.
  • NEW: A separate assault was launched from the south, near Opytne and Vodyane, in an attempt to envelop the Avdiivka garrison from a new direction. This southern push is currently being contested by elements of our 110th Mechanized Brigade.
• Bakhmut Axis:
  • RF VDV (Airborne Forces) units, supported by the new "Sarmat-2" UGV, conducted multiple unsuccessful ground assaults on our positions near Klishchiivka and Andriivka. The UGV was observed providing direct fire support with its mounted machine gun.
  • Heavy artillery and mortar fire continue to target our defensive lines and suspected logistical routes along the T0504 highway.
• Zaporizhzhia Axis:
  • Positional fighting continues along the Robotyne-Verbove line with no significant changes in the forward line of own troops (FLOT).
  • Significant Activity: A marked increase in Russian EW activity has been recorded, resulting in several reported instances of GPS signal loss for our UAVs and targeting pods. This is assessed as a deliberate enemy effort to counter our technological overmatch in the sector.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Enemy Intent (Avdiivka): The ultimate objective of the new southern push at Avdiivka is unclear. Is it a feint to draw our reserves, or the main effort to complete the encirclement? The composition and strength of the forces allocated to this new axis remain unconfirmed.
• UGV Capability: The full ISR and C2 capabilities of the "Sarmat-2" UGV are unknown. We lack intelligence on its operational range, control interface, and vulnerability to our own EW and anti-armor systems.
• EW Systems: The specific type of Russian EW system responsible for the sophisticated GPS spoofing in Zaporizhzhia has not yet been identified. Pinpointing the system is critical for developing effective countermeasures.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• COA 1 (Most Likely): RF will attempt to consolidate gains in the Avdiivka industrial zone while reinforcing the new southern axis of advance in the next 24-48 hours. The primary objective will be to sever ground lines of communication (GLOCs) into Avdiivka from the west. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• COA 2 (Most Dangerous): RF will launch a coordinated cruise missile strike from Black Sea Fleet assets targeting Odesa's port infrastructure within the next 24 hours, timed to coincide with continued ground pressure in Avdiivka to maximize strategic impact. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Bakhmut: RF will likely increase the use of UGVs in subsequent assaults on our positions near Klishchiivka, refining their tactics for integrating these systems with infantry and armor. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Re-task ISR: Immediately re-task all available ISR assets (UAV, satellite) to the southern approaches of Avdiivka to identify RF force composition, strength, and logistical preparations for the new assault vector. Priority should be given to identifying command posts and artillery positions.
2. Air Defense Posture: Elevate the readiness state of all air defense assets in Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts in anticipation of imminent Kalibr missile strikes. Disperse critical assets where possible.
3. Counter-EW: Deploy specialized signals intelligence (SIGINT) teams to the Zaporizhzhia front to identify and locate the source of GPS spoofing emissions. Task friendly EW units to develop and implement immediate countermeasures.
4. Counter-UGV Tactics: Disseminate all available intelligence on the "Sarmat-2" UGV to frontline units on the Bakhmut axis. Recommend prioritizing ATGM and FPV drone teams to target these new systems, as their armor is likely vulnerable.

//END REPORT//</content> </previous_daily_report> <dempster_shafer_beliefs> <belief hypothesis="Military Action: Special Forces Operation by Ukraine in Orikhiv direction">0.383860</belief> <belief hypothesis="Geopolitical Shift: Change in [Type of Support] from [Country] to [Recipient]">0.303073</belief> <belief hypothesis="">0.113945</belief> <belief hypothesis="Internal Security: Counter-Terrorism Operation in Zaporizhzhia region">0.070256</belief> <belief hypothesis="Legal Action: Domestic Legal Challenge in Russia">0.068884</belief> <belief hypothesis="Internal Security: Counter-Terrorism Operation in Region">0.025312</belief> <belief hypothesis="Military Action: Ground Assault by Ukraine on enemy positions in Zaporizhzhia region">0.025250</belief> <belief hypothesis="Information Warfare: Disinformation Campaign by [Side]">0.003473</belief> <belief hypothesis="Information Warfare: Propaganda Effort by [Side]">0.003473</belief> <belief hypothesis="Education Sector: Educational Institution Attack in [Location]">0.000450</belief> <belief hypothesis="Internal Security: Espionage Activity by [Actor] in [Country]">0.000450</belief> <belief hypothesis="Information Warfare: Social Media Campaign by [Side]">0.000450</belief> <belief hypothesis="Geopolitical Shift: Recognition of [Entity] by [Country]">0.000450</belief> <belief hypothesis="Geopolitical Shift: Territorial Claim by [Country] on [Region]">0.000450</belief> <belief hypothesis="Military Action: Artillery Barrage by [Side] on [Target Type] in [Region]">0.000157</belief> <belief hypothesis="Media Sector: Media Outlet Shutdown in Russia">0.000028</belief> <belief hypothesis="Information Warfare: Disinformation Campaign by Russia">0.000028</belief> <belief hypothesis="Information Warfare: Propaganda Effort by [Side] targeting [Audience]">0.000009</belief> <belief hypothesis="Humanitarian Crisis: Humanitarian Aid Operation by [Side] in [Region]">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Environmental Impact: Environmental Disaster in Pakistan">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Humanitarian Crisis: Natural Disaster in Pakistan">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Technology Deployment: Use of Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter by Russia">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Health Sector: Health Crisis in Pakistan">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Internal Security: Terrorist Attack in Pakistan">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Psychological Impact: Fear and Panic in [Region]">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Internal Security: Insurgent Activity in [Region]">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Troop Movement: Deployment of Attack Helicopter by Russia to [Region]">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Psychological Phenomenon: Mental Health Impact in Pakistan">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Psychological Impact: Fear and Panic in Region">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Internal Security: Coup Attempt in Pakistan">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Leadership Change: Military Coup in Pakistan">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Leadership Change: Internal Power Struggle in Pakistan">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Leadership Change: Assassination of Leader in Pakistan">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Internal Security: Sabotage Operation in Location">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Internal Security: Political Unrest in Pakistan">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Internal Security: Martial Law Declaration in Pakistan">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Internal Security: Insurgent Activity in Region">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Internal Security: Civil Disobedience in Pakistan">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Humanitarian Crisis: Human Rights Violation in Pakistan">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Humanitarian Crisis: Famine in Pakistan">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Humanitarian Crisis: Disease Outbreak in Pakistan">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Health Sector: Medical Supply Shortage in Pakistan">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Health Sector: Healthcare System Overload in Pakistan">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Environmental Impact: Climate Change Effect on Pakistan">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Military Action: Training Exercise by Russia in [Region]">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Troop Movement: Rotation of Attack Helicopter by Russia in [Region]">0.000000</belief> <belief hypothesis="Legal Action: Domestic Legal Challenge in Kazan">0.000000</belief> </dempster_shafer_beliefs> </intelligence_update>

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 301437Z JUL 25

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Ukraine General: Nationwide threat from RF missile and UAV attacks persists. UA Air Force warns of KABs in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. A nationwide air raid alert was declared due to a Russian MiG-31K takeoff, later cleared. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: КАBs inbound. RF conducted missile strike on a suburb of Kharkiv. Fires and casualties reported (3 injured in Shevchenkivskyi district). A likely reconnaissance UAV detected near Balakliya. Russian forces advancing towards the Kharkiv-Kupyansk road. Oleg Synyehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, confirms significant damage to civilian structures, including houses and a school in Vasyshcheve village due to a suspected ballistic missile strike. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны reports a powerful strike on a UA Armed Forces warehouse in Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Donetsk (Pokrovsk Axis): RF forces are most actively advancing, with battles begun in Dimitrov (Myrnohrad) and improved RF positions in Rodinskoye. RF sources claim DRGs have entered Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), with fire control over a road near Rodinskoye. Intense fighting confirmed by video footage. UA 55th Separate Artillery Brigade reports facing shortages of trained personnel and technical means, despite effective FPV drone strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: TASS reports children wounded by alleged UA shelling in Vasilyevka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ukrainian GUR MO received legal evidence of Russian abduction of Ukrainian children. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Bryansk Oblast (RF): Alex Parker Returns video shows an explosion on a lake surface near individuals fishing, with a provocative and likely false caption attributing it to Ukrainians. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Kharkiv Oblast: Continued RF strikes cause fires and damage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Bryansk Oblast (RF): Alex Parker Returns video shows an explosion on a lake surface near individuals fishing, claimed to be caused by Ukrainians. The nature of the explosion (e.g., ordnance detonation, accidental event) is unclear from the footage, but it represents an environmental incident with potential security implications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Force Dispositions:

  • Air Assets: RF continues to launch КАBs on Kharkiv Oblast. Colonelcassad's video features drone footage showing successful destruction of enemy vehicles (BBM, military trucks) and personnel, with targeting reticles, confirming active reconnaissance and targeting capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Воин DV video shows a concealed position in a forested area being successfully struck and destroyed by an aerial asset, likely a drone, confirming RF's precision strike capabilities against hidden targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: Persistent offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk axis. Военкор Котенок shares photo messages related to the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, indicating continued RF focus on this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Control Measures: TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Justice added Alexei Navalny's book "Patriot" to the list of extremist materials. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The Patriarch Kirill called for significant adjustments to migration policy, suggesting internal social control efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

• Friendly Forces (UA):

  • Government & Internal Security: The Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers has not yet appointed a new director for the Bureau of Economic Security (BEB), as reported by Suspilne. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) STERNENKO reports that the Rada is set to vote on a crucial bill regarding NABU and SAP tomorrow. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Oleksiy Biloshitsky's photo messages with the caption "🇺🇦 CHOOSE your caliber in the 'PREDATOR' brigade!" are recruitment advertisements for the Ukrainian "Predator" Brigade, emphasizing various military roles, demonstrating ongoing efforts to attract personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports that Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal stated that 90% of mobilization in Ukraine is proceeding without scandalous incidents, likely aimed at countering negative narratives about forced conscription. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Military Action: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a film titled "Road of Death" has been made about a Ukrainian GUR MO special forces operation in the Orikhiv direction, highlighting successful special operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Air/Missile/UAV: Capable of large-scale KAB launches and drone operations in contested areas. Colonelcassad's video demonstrates effective RF drone capabilities for reconnaissance and targeting, showing destruction of various vehicles and personnel. Воин DV video confirms RF aerial precision strike capabilities against concealed positions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Ground Forces: Capable of sustained offensive operations, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis. RF ground forces are active, as indicated by "Voenkor Kotenok" photo messages related to the Pokrovsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Intentions:
  • Strategic Attrition: Continue to degrade Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure through persistent KAB and drone strikes, particularly in Kharkiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Territorial Expansion: Maintain and intensify ground pressure on the Pokrovsk axis to achieve tactical gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare/Propaganda: Continuously blame UA for civilian casualties in occupied territories (Vasilyevka). Disseminate propaganda aimed at discrediting Ukraine and its armed forces, including false flag narratives (Bryansk lake incident) and undermining the legitimacy of the mobilization process. RF aims to portray Ukraine as a kidnapper of children, while GUR MO has evidence of RF doing so. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Internal Control: Consolidate control over information space within Russia by labeling opposition content as extremist and influencing social policy (migration). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Courses of Action: RF will continue massed aerial attacks, primarily with KABs on Kharkiv and other frontline areas. Ground offensives will persist on the Pokrovsk axis with the aim of advancing further into Ukrainian-controlled territory. RF will continue to utilize drones for reconnaissance and targeting. RF will intensify information warfare campaigns, including false flag operations and narratives about Ukrainian "atrocities," while tightening internal media control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Intensified Air/Missile Strikes on Kharkiv: Continued KAB launches on Kharkiv indicate persistent aerial targeting of the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Aggressive Ground Maneuvers (Pokrovsk): The ongoing "intensely escalating" situation on the Pokrovsk axis, with RF advancements into areas like Dimitrov and Rodinskoye, demonstrates an adaptive tactical focus and increased offensive tempo. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Information Warfare Focus on Child Abduction: The GUR MO's release of "legal evidence" of Russian abduction of Ukrainian children, directly contradicting Russia's counter-narratives, represents an escalation in the information war, likely prompting adaptive RF responses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Propagandistic Attribution of Incidents: The immediate and false attribution of the Bryansk lake explosion to "Ukrainians helping to stun fish" by RF sources demonstrates an adaptive tactic to quickly generate counter-narratives for any incidents occurring on Russian territory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Ammunition & Fuel: RF's ability to launch KABs on Kharkiv indicates continued availability of guided aerial bombs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Personnel: Ukraine is actively working to address personnel needs through recruitment campaigns for specific brigades (e.g., "Predator" Brigade) and public messaging about the mobilization process. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF continues internal control efforts, as evidenced by legal actions against dissidents and calls for migration policy changes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Materiel: UA forces are actively supporting specific units with equipment, as indicated by recruitment messages showing various military roles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• Tactical Level (RF): Colonelcassad's video showcasing drone operations with targeting reticles demonstrates effective tactical C2 for reconnaissance and strike missions. Воин DV video also supports effective tactical C2 for precision strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Operational/Strategic Level (UA): The reporting on the BEB director appointment and the NABU/SAP bill indicates ongoing governmental C2 over anti-corruption reforms and economic security. The GUR MO's release of evidence on child abductions demonstrates effective information operations C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Operational/Strategic Level (RF): The Russian Ministry of Justice's action against Navalny's book and Patriarch Kirill's statements indicate centralized strategic C2 over internal information space and social policies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Posture: UA forces are maintaining defensive posture in Kharkiv Oblast amidst KAB launches. The 55th Separate Artillery Brigade demonstrates continued defensive effectiveness in Pokrovsk despite personnel and technical challenges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:
  • Successes: GUR MO obtained legal evidence of Russian child abduction, a significant intelligence and information warfare success. The film "Road of Death" highlights a successful GUR MO special forces operation. Ukraine is working to counter negative narratives about mobilization. NABU/SAP bill is moving forward. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Setbacks: Continued KAB strikes and ground advancements by RF on Kharkiv and Pokrovsk axes pose significant tactical setbacks. Ukrainian 55th Separate Artillery Brigade facing shortages of trained personnel and technical means on the Pokrovsk direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The ongoing vacancy of the BEB director position indicates a potential delay in addressing economic security issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Critical Needs: The 55th Separate Artillery Brigade's report of shortages in trained personnel and technical means highlights a critical need for manpower and equipment on the Pokrovsk axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Recruitment campaigns like "Predator" Brigade indicate a continuous demand for military personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Financial Aid: The pending NABU/SAP bill vote is crucial for potentially unblocking EU financial aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Anti-Corruption Measures: The continued delay in appointing the BEB director suggests an ongoing constraint in addressing economic security and potentially corruption issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Disinformation: RF continues to push narratives blaming Ukraine for civilian casualties, specifically citing alleged shelling of a playground in Vasilyevka. RF sources are actively producing and disseminating video content (e.g., Colonelcassad's drone footage) to showcase perceived Ukrainian losses and RF combat effectiveness. RF sources are using narratives like "Ukrainians helping to stun fish" in Bryansk Oblast to falsely attribute incidents and fuel anti-Ukrainian sentiment. RF narratives also highlight internal Ukrainian issues like mobilization challenges. RF is consistently promoting information operations aimed at discrediting Ukrainian leadership and institutions (e.g., NABU/SAP). RF continues to portray itself as humanitarian by collecting aid for children in Donbas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF is increasingly targeting dissidents and opposition figures internally through legal means, labeling them as extremist (Navalny's book). RF is attempting to influence public sentiment through religious figures (Patriarch Kirill's call for migration policy adjustment). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UA Counter-Propaganda: GUR MO's release of legal evidence of Russian abduction of Ukrainian children is a direct counter-propaganda effort against RF claims of humanitarian actions and a strong factual counter to RF's general disinformation. Ukrainian officials are actively countering negative narratives about mobilization by highlighting its perceived smoothness. Recruitment campaigns (e.g., "Predator" Brigade) serve as counter-propaganda, projecting strength and professionalism. The film "Road of Death" on a GUR MO special forces operation boosts morale and highlights UA operational successes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Ukrainian authorities are transparently addressing corruption issues, as shown by the NABU/SAP bill discussion. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment: Public morale is likely to be impacted by continued RF KAB strikes and ground advancements in Kharkiv and Pokrovsk. The reported shortages in the 55th Separate Artillery Brigade could affect morale in frontline units. However, the release of evidence regarding child abductions is likely to galvanize public outrage and further reinforce resolve against RF. Public support for military recruitment efforts remains visible. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian Public Sentiment: Internal actions like labeling Navalny's book as extremist reflect an ongoing attempt by the RF government to control public discourse and suppress dissent. Patriarch Kirill's call for migration policy adjustment suggests public concerns about social issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The false flag operation in Bryansk Oblast aims to generate fear and anti-Ukrainian sentiment among the Russian populace. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Support for Ukraine: The GUR MO's obtaining of legal evidence of Russian child abductions will likely strengthen international support for Ukraine, providing concrete evidence of war crimes. Continued international pressure on Russia for its actions is expected. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Challenges for Ukraine: The ongoing vacancy of the BEB director could signal delays in economic reforms, potentially affecting donor confidence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The reported shortages in the 55th Separate Artillery Brigade highlight a persistent need for international military assistance to sustain capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Russian International Relations: RF continues to attempt to shape international narratives by accusing Ukraine of "terrorism" and false flag operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Russia is actively suppressing internal dissent to project an image of stability abroad. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action):
  • RF Ground Operations: RF will maintain high offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk axis, attempting to consolidate gains around Dimitrov (Myrnohrad) and Rodinskoye, and continue efforts to encircle Avdiivka. They will likely continue to probe Ukrainian defenses along other Eastern axes to fix reserves. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Air/Missile/UAV Operations: RF will continue daily KAB strikes on Kharkiv Oblast and other frontline regions to degrade Ukrainian defenses and infrastructure. Drone reconnaissance and targeting will remain pervasive, with an adaptive focus on destroying Ukrainian vehicles and personnel as observed in recent drone footage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • RF Hybrid Operations: RF will intensify information warfare, including false flag operations and narratives aimed at discrediting Ukraine's mobilization efforts and international image (e.g., alleged child abductions by Ukraine, alleged civilian casualties by Ukraine). Internal repression and information control measures (e.g., labeling materials as extremist) will continue to tighten within Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action):
  • RF Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis: RF achieves a decisive breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis, leading to a rapid collapse of Ukrainian defenses and significant territorial gains, potentially reaching major logistical hubs or civilian population centers deeper within Donetsk Oblast. This would severely compromise Ukraine's defensive integrity in the east. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Massive Civilian Casualty Event in Kharkiv: RF conducts a highly destructive and targeted missile/KAB strike on a high-density civilian area in Kharkiv, resulting in a large number of casualties and overwhelming local emergency services. This would aim to inflict maximum psychological impact and potentially force Ukrainian defensive resource reallocation. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Escalated Cyber-Sabotage in NATO: Building on recent arrests in Poland, RF-affiliated actors execute a large-scale, coordinated cyber and physical sabotage campaign against critical infrastructure in multiple NATO countries, leading to widespread disruptions and a direct challenge to NATO's collective security. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Critical decisions on reinforcements and defensive lines are required within the next 24-72 hours to prevent further RF gains and potential tactical encirclement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Kharkiv Air Defense: Continued vigilance and rapid response by UA air defense units are critical within the next 24-48 hours against anticipated KAB launches. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • NABU/SAP Bill Vote: The Rada vote on the NABU/SAP bill tomorrow (31 JUL) is a crucial decision point that will impact Ukraine's eligibility for significant EU financial aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Information Warfare Response: Ukraine's ability to effectively counter RF disinformation regarding child abductions and civilian casualties will be critical over the next 24-72 hours to maintain international support and domestic morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • BEB Director Appointment: The delay in appointing the BEB director requires resolution within the next few days to weeks to ensure effective economic security and anti-corruption efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • 55th Separate Artillery Brigade Support: Addressing the reported personnel and technical shortages for the 55th Separate Artillery Brigade is a critical support decision point within the next week to maintain their effectiveness on the Pokrovsk front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• RF Objectives on Pokrovsk Axis: Specific RF military objectives beyond Rodinskoye and Myrnohrad (e.g., deeper penetration, operational encirclement of specific UA forces) are unclear. Requires increased HUMINT and ISR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF UGV Production/Deployment: Full scale of RF UGV production ("Sarmat-2", "Teleg") and their planned integration into wider ground operations remains unknown. Need to identify industrial facilities and training centers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Naval Modernization: Impact of reported collapse of RF key fleet renewal project on their Black Sea Fleet capability. Requires additional COMINT/ELINT. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Personnel Mobilization: Extent of resistance to conscription within RF and the effectiveness of new recruitment tactics is unclear. Need to verify RF claims about "blocking detachments" and poor treatment of mobilized personnel within UA units. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Nature of French Cyberattack: Exact perpetrators, methods, and full extent of data exfiltration or system damage are unknown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Azerbaijani Support to UA: The volume and timeline of deliveries from Azerbaijan to UA needs immediate verification. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF "Italmas" UAV Development: Information on the capabilities, production, and intended deployment of the "Italmas" UAV is extremely limited. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Drone Interception Capability: Details of RF's "Yolka" air defense drone capabilities are unknown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Security Targets: The targets and operational scope of RF's drone-interceptor units for "Putin's guards" are unclear. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• GPS Spoofing System Identification: The specific type and location of the sophisticated RF EW system responsible for GPS spoofing in Zaporizhzhia are still unidentified. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF "Electric Scooter" Doctrine: The scale of deployment and intended tactical doctrine for "combat electric scooters" is unclear. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Impact of Trump's Ultimatum: Immediate and long-term impact of Trump's "10-day deadline" on RF strategic decision-making, Western unity, and international support for Ukraine remains highly uncertain. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• UA Public Donation Trends: The specific reasons for the reported "dip" in public donations and its broader implications for public morale and sustained support require further analysis. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• RF Claimed Losses: Independent verification of RF claims of heavy Ukrainian losses on various fronts. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• RF Internal Repression: The full scale and methodology of the "foreign agent" campaign against Russian journalists and dissidents, and the broadening of administrative cases for social behaviors, requires further investigation. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• RF Mortar Round Marking: The purpose and implications of RF units marking mortar rounds with blue markers require further ISR and HUMINT. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• Effectiveness of RF "Groza" EW: Independent verification of RF claims regarding the "Groza" EW system's effectiveness in "mass burning" UA transport in Kupyansk is required. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• RF "Anti-Drone Screens": Details on the specifications, deployment, and effectiveness of these new "anti-drone screens" being distributed to RF units are unknown. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• RF FPV Drone Usage (Kherson): Specifics on RF FPV drone models, C2, and counter-measures employed against UA EW in the Kherson sector are unknown. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• Polish Abrams Operational Issues: The nature and extent of "serious operational problems" with Polish Abrams tanks are unclear. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)
• RF Fiber-Optic Drone Capabilities: The full operational capabilities, range, and deployment doctrine of these fiber-optic drones are unknown. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Mexican Cartel Disinformation: The origin and specific intent behind the "Mexican cartel" disinformation narrative require further investigation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Belgorod Oblast Governor's Report: The specific content and implications of the Belgorod Oblast Governor's latest report are missing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Specifics of TCC/ARTA Corruption Cases: While the arrests/resignations of the former TCC head and ARMA head are confirmed, the full details of their alleged corruption and the extent of their impact on mobilization/resource management are unclear. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kharkiv Damage Assessment: The full extent of damage and precise number of casualties in Kharkiv's Shevchenkivskyi district from the night attack needs further confirmation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The full extent of damage and precise number of casualties from the RF strike on Kharkiv district/suburb needs further confirmation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kamenskoye Casualties: The precise number of fatalities in Kamenskoye is still fluid, with initial reports of 4 killed from ASTRA and later 3 from Ukrainian sources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Internal Internet/Communication Restrictions: The full scope and impact of growing demand for wired internet in Russia due to mobile internet interruptions during UAV attacks, and its potential impact on military/civilian communications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Donetsk Fire Extent: The full extent of the strong fire in Kuibyshevsky district of Donetsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• RF Drone Activity (Low over Russia): The specific reasons for RF claiming lower drone activity over Russian regions overnight, contrasting with large drone attacks on Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• Severo-Kurilsk Damage: The TASS claim of "no destruction" in Severo-Kurilsk despite earlier reports of tsunami impact on port and processing plant, requires independent verification. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zakaharova's Condemnations: The full impact and reception of Maria Zakharova's strong condemnations of Lviv mayor's proposal and US actions in Palestine within Russian and international information spaces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Polish Officials Discrediting: The specific context and target of the "Басурин о главном" photo message on "Polish panov" (Polish lords/gentlemen) and their alleged inability to think. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Ukrainian Defense Reforms (Aug 1 Changes): The specific impact of changes from August 1 (fines, multi-card payments, "Diia" tickets) on Ukrainian society and economy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Kamchatka Earthquake/Tsunami Impact (RF Far East): While residents returned and ports operate, extent of long-term recovery resource allocation remains a gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Specifics on damage to "Alaid" fish processing plant and vessel moorings in Severo-Kurilsk, and reconciliation with TASS's "no destruction" claim, require further IMINT. The impact of the tsunami reaching California needs to be assessed for any broader geopolitical or logistical implications, beyond civilian safety. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) While damage to kindergarten No. 15 is confirmed, a full assessment of overall infrastructure damage and its impact on the region's operational capacity is still needed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The broader impact of the Kamchatka earthquake on other affected areas ("Who else got it?") needs clarification. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The full assessment of the anticipated M7.5 aftershocks and their potential impact on infrastructure and population. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The full impact of the cancellation of regular flights to Severo-Kurilsk due to runway flooding on regional logistics and the broader earthquake recovery efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The specific environmental impact of the Klyuchevskaya Sopka volcano eruption and its potential to disrupt local air quality or flight operations in the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The specific impacts and response measures in Easter Island following the tsunami threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Mariupol Radiation Levels: While no specific intelligence on radiation levels in Mariupol was provided, the previous mention of concerns near ZNPP highlights a general regional vulnerability. Continued monitoring of environmental parameters in occupied territories remains a gap. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Reinforce Eastern Fronts: Prioritize the immediate deployment of additional artillery, armored vehicles, and infantry reinforcements to the Pokrovsk axis, particularly to support the 55th Separate Artillery Brigade, to counter the intensified RF offensive and prevent further breakthroughs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. Enhance Air Defense in Kharkiv: Increase the density of short- to medium-range air defense systems in Kharkiv and its suburbs to defend against persistent KAB strikes and other aerial threats. Prioritize rapid damage assessment and civilian protection protocols in affected areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
3. Counter-Disinformation Operations: Immediately launch a coordinated counter-propaganda campaign to disseminate the GUR MO's legal evidence of Russian child abductions, leveraging international media and diplomatic channels to expose RF war crimes. Actively refute RF false flag narratives regarding civilian casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
4. Accelerate NABU/SAP Reform: Urge the Rada to promptly pass the NABU and SAP bill to unblock crucial EU financial aid, essential for sustained military and economic resilience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
5. Address BEB Director Vacancy: Expedite the appointment of a qualified director for the Bureau of Economic Security to ensure effective management of anti-corruption efforts and financial stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
6. Personnel and Equipment Assessment: Conduct an urgent assessment of the 55th Separate Artillery Brigade's specific personnel and technical means shortages and implement a rapid resupply and training program to address these critical needs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
7. Monitor RF Internal Policy Shifts: Closely monitor RF's internal policies, particularly concerning migration and internet control, to anticipate potential impacts on social stability, resource allocation, and military recruitment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
8. ISR Focus on RF Drone Ops: Intensify ISR collection on RF drone operations, particularly their capabilities against concealed positions and their adaptive use in reconnaissance and targeting, to develop effective countermeasures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)