Kyiv Oblast: RUF concluded a protracted, multi-vector aerial attack lasting 10-11 hours. Casualties: two (2) killed, twenty-eight (28) injured. Significant damage to civilian infrastructure, including a Center for Primary Medical Care ambulatorium and residential buildings. Vatican Embassy also reported damage. Firefighting operations concluded. Widespread smoke and burning smell persist. Public transport routes temporarily changed but restored. New RUF UAV groups moving towards Kyiv Oblast from Chernihiv, and some reported towards Zhytomyr region. UAF Air Force reports 178 targets shot down out of 397 drones and 18 missiles launched. RUF sources claim strikes on military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure in Kyiv. KMA has launched a full-fledged system for intercepting enemy drones flying into Kyiv. Post-attack, rescue workers and firefighters are actively clearing debris. UAF Air Force reports an unidentified UAV in Chernihiv airspace. UPDATED: Unidentified passenger aircraft sighted over Kyiv for the first time since the full-scale invasion; identified as a cargo plane. (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Fighterbomber, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Kryvyi Rih): UAF Air Command neutralized five (5) RUF UAVs. A 67-year-old man was killed in Pokrovske Hromada, Nikopol Raion, due to RUF UAVs and artillery. Aggressor struck Pokrovska Hromada, Synelnykivskyi Raion, with UAVs, damaging an agricultural enterprise and causing a fire. UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons in Synelnykivskyi Raion. UAF Air Force reports a reconnaissance UAV in Kryvyi Rih area, potentially acting as a spotter for RUF attack assets, and UAF means are engaged to shoot it down. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target (likely ballistic missile) moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports a minus on a drone. UPDATED: Head of GUR Kyrylo Budanov states RUF forces seek to advance 10km into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (General): RUF continues to employ KABs. RUF "Center" group claims raising flags in "liberated Dachne." ASTRA reports nine (9) people killed and ten (10) injured in Russian attacks on July 9. DeepState reports approx. 40 FPV drone strikes on Dobropillia by UAF. RUF sources claim ongoing battles near Pokrovsk and destruction of UAF positions, with new claims of "practically liberated Karlo Marksa" near Chasiv Yar. TASS claims RF Armed Forces destroyed elite UAF units with a FAB strike in Tolstoi. RUF sources report fires in Makeevka. MoD Russia claims foiling enemy UAV operations in Krasnoarmeysk direction. STERNENKO shares video of another RUF assault resulting in "negative advance" for enemy forces. Mash na Donbasse reports a civilian traffic accident in Yenakiieve. UAF Air Force reports launches of KABs by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Pokrovsk. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports TOS-1A Solntsepyok unit destroyed an enemy fortified position for UAV launches in Krasnoarmeysk direction (Pokrovsk). ASTRA reports seven people killed and nine injured in Donetsk Oblast on July 10, according to the National Police. UPDATED: DeepState reports on RUF FPV drone strikes on the Kramatorsk-Dobropillia road, showing damaged civilian vehicles. (Source: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Siversk): TASS claims RUF forces are less than 1 km from Siversk suburb. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Serebryanka, Verkhnokamyanske, and Vyyimka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Ivano-Daryivka, Verkhnokamyanske and towards Vyyimka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar): RUF sources claim continued attacks and control over the "main part" of Chasiv Yar. UAF General Staff reports repelling multiple assaults near Bila Hora, Chasiv Yar, and Predtechyne. Enemy forces have intensified ground assaults on the eastern suburbs of Chasiv Yar, focusing on the "Canal" microdistrict and the village of Ivanivske, employing "human wave" tactics. The risk of a tactical breakthrough in this sector is HIGH. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of 68th Separate Jaeger Brigade clearing fortified positions and basements used by RUF in destroyed buildings. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Chasiv Yar and towards Predtechyne, Stupochky and Bila Hora. Colonelcassad shares video of Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS RF) at work. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a Russian armored vehicle destroyed along with infantry near Chasiv Yar during a repelled assault, confirming effective UAF defense. UPDATED: Video from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows a Russian occupant being engaged by a drone operator from the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade near Chasiv Yar. (Source: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kharkiv Oblast (General): Governor Syniehubov reports 11 settlements struck by enemy fire. RUF tactical aviation continues KAB/KAR launches. UAF Air Force reports active RUF reconnaissance UAVs. Enemy forces attempting to consolidate tactical gains near Lyptsi and Vovchansk. Friendly forces inflicting heavy casualties on attacking formations; SIGINT corroborates degraded morale and combat effectiveness in forward Russian units. Enemy has committed operational reserves, including elements of the 83rd Air Assault Brigade moving towards Vovchansk. TASS reports more than 10 major UAF attacks repelled near Bohuslavka. Oleg Syniehubov reports enemy strikes on Kharkiv City and 10 settlements over the past day. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Starytsa, Vovchansk, Zapadne and Zelene in South Slobozhansky direction. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports on the situation in the operational zone of OTU "Kharkiv" as of the morning of July 11, 2025. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, discussed operational situation in Kharkiv Oblast, showing damaged infrastructure and reporting on unsuccessful Russian assaults (Source: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА). UPDATED: UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkiv City): Nine (9) injured in Kharkiv after night attack. Mayor of Kharkiv reports strikes on the city center, residential areas, and a working medical facility. RUF drone hit residential area in Kharkiv City. RUF Shahed hit a three-story building in Saltivskyi district, causing damage and a small fire. Maternity hospital affected. ASTRA reports nine people injured in night attacks on Saltivskyi district, including mothers and newborn children from a maternity hospital. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports three infants were injured during Russian drone strikes on Kharkiv. Zelenskiy / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА share photos of aftermath, focusing on damage to civilian infrastructure, including a maternity hospital, and casualties. РБК-Україна reports Zelensky confirmed the attack on Odesa and the city council reported eight injured. РБК-Україна reports Zelensky reacted to the damage to the maternity hospital in Kharkiv, stating "Russia targets life." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Western Ukraine (Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Lutsk, Rivne, Chernivtsi, Ternopil, Cherkasy Oblasts): UAF Air Force reports multiple RUF UAVs heading towards Chortkiv (Ternopil Oblast), Lutsk (Volyn Oblast), Lviv, Burshtyn, Busk, Chernivtsi, and Kaniv (Cherkasy Oblast). Lutsk City and Lviv experienced severe flooding due to heavy rains, impacting movement. RBC-Ukraine reports 230 houses flooded in Lviv Oblast due to a year's worth of rain in one day. UPDATED: Video shows flood from bird's eye view. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Penza Oblast, Russian Federation: A UAF drone was reportedly shot down. Initial reports of significant fire at a power substation (TETs) were confirmed by Operatyvnyi ZSU video, but the governor now claims the fire was not related to a drone attack. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Perm Krai, Russian Federation: ASTRA reports a strong fire in IK-1 in Solikamsk (prison colony). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Smolensk Oblast, Russian Federation: Three (3) UAF UAVs reportedly shot down by air defense forces. TASS reports Starovoyta was buried in Smolensk cemetery. The context implies a casualty, possibly military, but details are not provided. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sumy Oblast: RUF tactical aviation active with KABs. RUF claims a UAF battalion headquarters (150th Brigade) deserted in Sumy direction (unverified). RUF claims targeting a UAF medical facility in Sumy Oblast. UAF General Staff reports repelling 14 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky directions. RUF strike UAVs are now reported in the suburbs of Sumy. Acting Mayor of Sumy reports RUF drone attacks on Sumy suburbs, with no casualties. Russian forces launched 6 UAVs on Sumy community this morning. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Andriyivka, Kindrashivka, Volodymyrivka, Nova Nich, Sadky. UAF General Staff reports repelling 21 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky directions. Kadyrov_95 shares video claiming "Akhmat-Chechnya" regiment established full control over Novonykolaivka, Sumy Oblast. Kotsnews released video claiming to show capture of Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast, indicating direct RUF ground action in the region. UPDATED: UAF Air Force reports KAB launches in Sumy Oblast. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Two (2) individuals injured in an enemy attack on Vasylivskyi district. RUF reconnaissance UAV detected and engaged. UAF successfully destroyed numerous RUF high-value equipment (2S3 Akatsiya, 2S7 Pion, BM-27 Uragan, Zhitel EW system). A 48-year-old man was injured in a RUF attack on Zaporizhzhia Raion. "Воин DV" claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade annihilated UAF armored personnel carrier (BTR) in Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk direction. UPDATED: Zaporizhzhia OVA issues an alert (🚨УВАГА🚨). UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons and strike UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Zaliznychne, Bilohirya, Novoandriyivka, Plavni. Zaporizhzhia OVA reports a 71-year-old woman was killed as a result of an enemy attack on Polohivskyi Raion. ТАСС reports UAF attacked Energodar administration building with a loitering munition. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photos of aftermath of attacks, similar to Kharkiv reports by Syniehubov and Zelenskiy. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also shared photo messages about compensation for rental housing for Defenders, indicating internal support measures. 58-year-old man killed in Stepnohirsk community due to enemy shelling. Air raid siren canceled (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). UPDATED: Video from Zaporizhzhia OVA shows a wheelchair ramp installation and use in a civilian administrative building, focusing on accessibility for veterans. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Threat of RUF strike UAVs reported. UAF Southern Defense Forces continue strikes on RUF locations. RUF source claims an Iskander strike on a UAF 35th Marine Brigade temporary deployment point (PVD) in Barativka. New groups of RUF strike UAVs are moving through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Balovne, Mykolaiv Oblast, under UAV attack; additional 5 Shahed UAVs reported heading towards Balovne. RUF UAVs currently course for Ochakiv. UAF reports a UAV in the suburbs of Mykolaiv, and a fire on the outskirts of the city. Ukrainian forces claim all incoming "mopeds" (UAVs) in Mykolaiv area have been neutralized. RUF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes concentrated on Mykolaiv overnight. Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons held a meeting in Voznesensk. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports threat of aviation weapons in Mykolaiv Oblast. UPDATED: Ballistic missile launched from Crimea towards Vilkove. (Source: Николаевский Ванёк). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Chernihiv Oblast: RUF reconnaissance UAV detected and engaged. A new group of RUF UAVs detected in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south towards Kyiv Oblast and Zhytomyr region. A group of RUF UAVs from Sumy Oblast is moving through Terny and Krolevets towards Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports groups of RUF strike UAVs in Mena, Olishivka, and Oster districts of Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports an unidentified UAV in Chernihiv airspace, indicating immediate threat. UAF Air Force reports a strike UAV past Chernihiv, course for Mykhailo-Kotsiubynske. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Federation (General): MoD Russia claims 14 UAF fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Russian regions. New batch of Su-34 fighter-bombers transferred to RUF. FSB claims detention of two UAF military intelligence agents in Melitopol and one in Crimea. Colonel SBU Voronich Ivan Ivanovych allegedly assassinated in Kyiv. Russia's electronic registry for conscription notices is fully operational. Temporary flight restrictions at Moscow airports due to drone activity. MoD Russia claims 26 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Russian regions in three hours. Colonelcassad reports on operational statements from RUF troop groupings. RUF is reportedly using RAM pickup trucks for Geran (Shahed) drone launches. MoD Russia reports 155 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, including 11 over Moscow region. Steam platform experiencing outages for users in Russia. TASS reports Trump stated NATO allies will pay for US weapons for Ukraine and will make an important statement on Russia on July 14. ASTRA reports that Pukovo Airport has temporarily suspended operations. "Операция Z" reports a massive enemy attack on Moscow and Russian regions. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims 155 enemy UAVs were destroyed by Russian PVO overnight. WarGonzo shares a "Frontline summary." Kotsnews shares video of an award ceremony for "Assault Troopers." Север.Реалии confirms 155 UAVs shot down over Russia, two people killed. Lavrov declined to comment on Rubio's statements. TASS reports FSB detained two residents of Bryansk Oblast for collecting data on MOD facilities and preparing attacks, also receiving explosives via UAV. TASS reports Pulkovo Airport resumed operations. Военкор Котенок reports 155 UAVs shot down over Russian territory overnight, including 1 over Penza, 1 over Tula, 1 over Orel, 19 over Bryansk, 1 over Rostov, 1 over Kaluga, 11 over Moscow, 1 over Voronezh, 1 over Kursk, 1 over Lipetsk, and 1 over Ryazan. This confirms widespread UAF drone activity into Russian territory. MoD Russia reports military signalmen of the 44th Army Corps (Sever Group of Forces) are conducting drills to deploy secure means of communication with assault detachments. This includes training on the R-187-P1 'Azart' radio station. TASS reports Lavrov stated Europe forgot lessons of history and tries to raise it for war with Russia. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports the number of deserters in the Ukrainian army has exceeded 230,000, with Kyiv estimating half a million, and discusses forced mobilization in Ukraine mentioned in Europe (RUF propaganda). ТАСС reports the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Russian troops conducted 6 group strikes with high-precision weapons, including Kinzhal missiles, against military targets in Ukraine over the past week. Alex Parker Returns shares a video clip, with captions criticizing the private use of military aircraft by a high-ranking Russian official's "mistress," suggesting internal corruption and misuse of military assets. TASS reports State Duma Committee approved draft law strengthening responsibility for foreign agents. Peskov states that the possible deployment of foreign military contingents in Ukraine near Russian borders is unacceptable for Moscow. (Source: Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad). UPDATED: Fire reported at Orsk Mechanical Plant, which produces artillery shells. (Source: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ). TASS reports that a prosecutor is seeking a 10-year sentence for former head of GABTU Ministry of Defense's utilization service, Timofeev, for large-scale bribery, indicating ongoing corruption within the MOD. (Source: ТАСС). TASS reports the Chief of the General Staff of the French Armed Forces, Thierry Burkhard, stated Russia is the main threat to his country. (Source: ТАСС). Russia is revoking consent for the operation of the Polish Consulate General in Kaliningrad. (Source: ТАСС, Операция Z). Russia extradited a person accused of violence against a 12-year-old girl to Latvia. (Source: ТАСС). Colonelcassad reports that Crimea Head Sergey Aksyonov approved additional one-time payments of 200,000 rubles to SVO participants from Crimea who participated between Feb 24 and Sep 21, 2022. (Source: Colonelcassad). TASS reports a boy who was thrown to the floor at Sheremetyevo Airport has been discharged from the hospital. (Source: ТАСС). A photo message from Alex Parker Returns appears to depict a social media post with text regarding "If you have..." and includes an image of a Russian military medal, likely related to volunteer support or recruitment. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Belgorod Oblast, Russian Federation (Shebekino): ASTRA reports one person killed and one injured in a UAF shelling incident in Shebekino. RUF claims the father of an "Azov" fighter was killed in Belgorod shelling. TASS reports Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov stating UAF attempts to breakthrough into Belgorod Oblast are "successfully repelled." TASS reports 41,000 apartments and 14,000 damaged vehicles restored. Restoration in Repyakhovka and Vyazovoye cannot begin due to proximity to the border. More than 400 social facilities damaged. Putin receiving operational reports on Belgorod, frequently calls Gladkov. Gladkov states UAF consciously targets children, adults, and elderly. TASS reports a resident of Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, died due to a UAF ammunition strike. ASTRA also confirms one person killed. Операция Z shares photo messages claiming "enemy attacks Belgorod region, killing civilians," including images of damage. UPDATED: Gladkov reports to Putin that 70,000 children were evacuated from Belgorod Oblast in summer/autumn 2024. (Source: ТАСС). TASS reports Gladkov presented Putin with a painting on a fragment of an air defense missile cover, depicting a girl with a dog and the inscription "Belgorod does not surrender," symbolizing resilience. (Source: ТАСС). ASTRA reports Prosecutor General's Office seeks nearly 1 billion rubles from organizers of defensive structures on Belgorod border with Ukraine due to alleged financial irregularities. (Source: ASTRA). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the Prosecutor General's Office is seeking almost 1 billion rubles from the organizers of the construction of fortifications on the border of Belgorod Oblast with Ukraine. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Rostov Oblast, Russian Federation: Forest fire increased to 324 ha. Mayor of Taganrog reports drone debris fell on the Beriev Aviation Plant. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Irkutsk, Russian Federation: Oil contamination detected on the Angara River. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dagestan, Russian Federation: Water poisoning incident, 300 affected, 90+ hospitalized. TASS reports number of poisoned in Dagestan reached 372, 357 are children, 97 remain hospitalized. UPDATED: Video from Alex Parker Returns shows a physical altercation in a store in North Ossetia, alleged to be a Dagestani man beaten for wearing shorts, potentially indicative of inter-ethnic tensions within Russia. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Bryansk Oblast, Russian Federation: Forecasted severe thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds. 5 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs and an additional 14 jet-powered UAVs destroyed. 19 enemy fixed-wing UAVs detected and destroyed overnight. MoD Russia reports 155 UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, including 19 over Bryansk Oblast. TASS reports FSB detained two residents for collecting data on MOD facilities and preparing attacks, also receiving explosives via UAV. "Два майора" reports FSB conducted an operation in Bryansk Oblast, apprehending an individual and seizing disassembled drones, propellers, batteries, remote controls, laptops, and a handgun with a silencer. AV БогомаZ reports four additional UAVs of aircraft type were detected and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by MoD RF Air Defense units. AV БогомаZ reports severe weather warnings for Bryansk Oblast on July 12, including thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds. Ceremonial welcome at an agricultural festival or event in Russia ("Bryansk Field Day") (Source: AV БогомаZ). This is a civilian event, no military significance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Black Sea/Azov Sea: No RUF Kalibr carriers detected in Black or Azov Seas. One RUF warship in Mediterranean. US RQ-4B Global Hawk UAV (FORTE10) active over western Black Sea. New reporting indicates successful maritime attacks by Houthi movement on "MAGIC SEAS" and "ETERNITY C" vessels in the Red Sea. UAF Air Force reports a reconnaissance UAV in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast, with means engaged to shoot it down. UAF Air Force reports group of strike UAVs near Odesa in Black Sea. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports 7 drones from the sea towards Odesa. RBC-Ukraine and STERNENKO confirm drone attack on Odesa, with explosions reported. "Два майора" reports 6 hits in Odesa. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports an impact on a TCC (Territorial Recruitment Center) in Odesa. RUF sources (Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad) confirm strike on Odesa TCC. ASTRA reports aftermath of drone attack on Odesa with visible damage to a car service building. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a RUF drone over Odesa beach (Arcadia). Военкор Котенок shares photos confirming "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on the Odesa Oblast TCC on Zankovetskaya Street. "Два майора" and "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" also confirm the strike on Odesa TCC. Colonelcassad shares video claiming the attack on Odesa TCC originated from the sea. Kotsnews and WarGonzo also confirm RUF strike on Odesa TCC. Операция Z and Alex Parker Returns share photo and video messages of explosions/strikes on Odesa TCC, with Alex Parker Returns stating "Прилет одной из Геранек по областному ТЦК в Одессе. Быть добру!" RBC-Ukraine and Оперативний ЗСУ report 8 injured in Odesa night attack. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video with a caption implying the destruction of a TCC in Odesa, further supporting the confirmed strike. Video captures significant explosion with large plume of dark smoke near Odesa, implied to be TCC strike (Source: Военкор Котенок). Colonelcassad posted a video of what they claim are Odesa residents conducting "objective control" of Geran drone strikes, with footage of an explosion. UPDATED: TASS reports Russian air defense shot down a Ukrainian drone over the Black Sea. (Source: ТАСС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Konstantinovka - Yablonovka): RUF sources report operational movements and "gathering for assault troops." Video shows individuals working on a homemade UGV. RUF claims "Paladins" are burning near Konstantinovka (likely FPV drone strike). New image shows tactical map for Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad reports FPV drone operators of the 3rd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade liquidated UAF positions and PVDs near Yablonovka. UPDATED: RUF claims new positions in Dzerzhinsk and its vicinity, advancing towards Konstantinovka. (Source: Басурин о главном). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Velikaya Novoselka - Voskresenka): RUF sources report operational movements. "Воин DV" shows projectile impact, claiming "Voskresenka area." UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday in Novopavlivka direction. RUF "Воин DV" reports UAV operators from the 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade engaged a UAF pickup truck during a rotation attempt in the Yanvarskyi area. "Операция Z" claims Russian army occupied most of Mirny and reached Voskresenka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Zaporizhzhya, Tolstoy, Piddubne, Myrne, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole and Zelene Pole in Novopavlivka direction. Video shows UAV operators from 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade engaging a vehicle with personnel near Yanvarskyi, west of Voskresenka (Source: Воин DV). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Lyman Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Novyy Myr, Ridkodub, Serednye, Karpivka, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Hrekivka, Kolodyazi, and towards Serebryanka. RUF tactical maps for Krasnolimansky Direction and Grigorievka. "Сливочный каприз" shows a map and drone footage related to Krasny Liman - Zelena Dolyna. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Novoyehorivka, Novyy Myr, Karpivka, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodyazi, Torske and towards Serebryanka and Hryhorivka. ТАСС and Colonelcassad reports that Russian forces liberated Zelena Dolyna in DPR. Kotsnews reports Russian army liberated Zelena Dolyna. Video from Russian MoD shows drone footage of an artillery strike near Zelena Dolyna, DPR, with a Russian flag being placed on a monument. (Source: ТАСС, Басурин о главном, Операция Z, MoD Russia, «Зона СВО»). UPDATED: Video from НгП раZVедка shows an explosion in a forested area, likely an artillery or airstrike. (Source: НгП раZVедка). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Popiv Yar, Poltavka, Novotoretske, Myrnohrad, Novoekonomichne, Myrne, Horikhove, Myrolubivka, Mykolayivka, Promin, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, Novoserhiyivka, Yalta, Oleksiyivka and towards Shakhove, Novopidhor, Pokrovsk, Razine, Rodynske. RUF video shows combat near Pokrovsk. Enemy forces have increased the tempo of probing attacks and localized assaults, assessed as a supporting effort. New image depicts "Pokrovsko-Mirnohradskoye direction" map. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that in the area of responsibility of the "Spartan" brigade, Russians do not abandon attempts to advance. TASS claims the UAF grouping in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Dimitrov is effectively in a "fire bag". General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Popiv Yar, Myrne, Razine, Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Shevchenko, Zvirove, Udachne, Novoserhiyivka, Muravka, Horikhove and Oleksiyivka. TASS reports UAF has concentrated most combat-ready forces, including "Birds of Hungary" and "Wild Hornets" strike group, on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) section of the front. UPDATED: MoD Russia shares video of TOS-1A Solntsepyok destroying enemy fortification in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (Source: MoD Russia). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Dyliyivka, Scherbynivka, Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, and towards Pleschiyivka. RUF tactical aviation launched KABs. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled a RUF assault involving a "Tsar-tank." General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Dyliyivka, Toretsk, Katerynivka, Yablunivka and Rusyn Yar. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Prydniprovske and Bilohrudyy island. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Odradokamyanka. RUF claims Iskander-M strike on a UAF PVD in Chervone by 38th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Lvove. UAF General Staff reports repelling 11 Russian army assaults. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lipetsk Oblast, Russian Federation: Governor Igor Artamonov introduced and lifted an air danger regime. RUF reports a UAF drone fell on a farm in Khlevensky district, Lipetsk Oblast, causing a fire. One person confirmed killed, one injured. Игорь Артамонов, Governor of Lipetsk Oblast, announced a "red level" UAV threat for Lipetsk City and Lipetsk Municipal District. Igor Artamonov reports red level UAV threat called off. UPDATED: Igor Artamonov posts on "Pride of Lipetsk Land" program. (Source: Игорь Артамонов). Igor Artamonov reports the lifting of the "yellow level" of drone threat. (Source: Игорь Артамонов). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lithuania: A Russian "Gerbera" (Shahed) drone fell in Lithuania. RBC-Ukraine confirms an unknown drone from Belarus forced Lithuanian leadership into shelters. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Khakassia, Russian Federation: A convicted "Wagner" mercenary is suspected of murdering the chief doctor of a children's hospital. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kursk Oblast, Russian Federation: MoD Russia shows captured UAF munitions. Tactical map for Kursk Oblast released by RUF. ASTRA reports a man killed in Kursk due to a shot down UAV. TASS reports a 73-year-old man was killed in Kursk due to a Ukrainian UAV attack. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports burning production facilities of a major agro-holding after a UAV attack. ASTRA reports four people injured in a Ukrainian drone strike in Kursk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the liquidation of two additional RUF Colonels (Sergey Ilyin, Commander of 155th Marine Brigade; Leonid Bashkardin, Chief of Staff of the Brigade) along with Major General Mikhail Gudkov and Colonel Nariman Shikhaliev from a missile strike on a command post in Korenevo, Kursk Oblast. Photo evidence indicates memorial plaques. UAF General Staff reports repelling 21 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky directions. Военкор Котенок and Alex Parker Returns confirms the burial of Sergey Ilyin, commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, who died on July 2 during a missile strike on a meeting place. This further corroborates the high-value UAF strike. Drone footage shows what appears to be an attack on a ground target in a forested area in Kursk Oblast, with explosions and smoke, implying ongoing military engagement (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). UPDATED: TASS reports UAF planted mines in money, toys, and sweets in Kursk Oblast. (Source: ТАСС). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the liquidation of the commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, Sergey Ilyin, in Kursk Oblast during a strike. (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Moscow, Russian Federation: A UAF drone was shot down over Moscow. Temporary flight restrictions at Domodedovo, Vnukovo, Zhukovsky, and Kaluga airports. Multiple UAF drones attempting to penetrate Moscow airspace. MoD Russia reports 11 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Moscow region overnight. Flight restrictions at Zhukovsky airport lifted. "Операция Z" reports a massive enemy attack on Moscow. Новости Москвы reports forecasted peak heat of +36°C today. ASTRA reports Moscow has implemented enhanced security measures for law enforcement agencies in case of drone attacks from Russian territory, citing a source. Moscow weather update reports record high temperatures (Source: Новости Москвы). This is a civilian-related update. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Astrakhan, Russian Federation: RUF detained an "Azerbaijani nationalist." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Azerbaijan/Kazakhstan: RUF sources report "UAV exercises in Azerbaijan with participation of Kazakhstan." Additionally, Azerbaijan has arrested two former "Wagner" employees. Roselkhoznadzor rejected 18 tons of peaches/nectarines from Azerbaijan in Krasnodar. Басурин о главном questions "Whom does Russophobia of Baku surprise?", implying growing anti-Russian sentiment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Krasnodar, Russian Federation: RUF posts about social support for SVO participants' families. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kupyansk Direction: RUF tactical maps for the Lymano-Kupyansk sector show claimed control. RUF KABs reported on Kupyansk direction. Air Force of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs moving towards Kharkiv. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Stepova Novoselivka, Zapadne and Petropavlivka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sevastopol, Russian Federation: Five (5) people died in a car accident. Bastrykin ordered a report on the car accident with a minibus. Mash na Donbasse reports a motorcyclist died after being hit by a car in Luhansk. (Source: Mash на Донбассе). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Red Sea: Unverified RUF media report with video claims maritime attack on vessels 'MAGIC SEAS' and 'ETERNITY C' by "people in slippers," implying Houthi involvement. This highlights the growing threat of USVs and ballistic missiles against maritime targets, a capability that RUF could attempt to emulate or exploit. CONFIDENCE: LOW.
Syberia, Russian Federation: Alex Parker Returns refers to Yugra as "homeland of Uzbeks" in a video, hinting at internal ethnic tensions/disputes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Syktyvkar, Russian Federation: City court released Darya Chernysheva, director of "Revolt-center," under travel restrictions for "foreign agent" evasion charges. ASTRA reports "veterans of the SVO and public figures" held an action at the "Revolt-center" building in Syktyvkar, displaying "Z" letters and the word "traitors." (Source: ASTRA). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Novoseklovske Direction (RUF Map): RUF source "Рыбарь" released a map displaying military movements and territorial control. Рыбарь posts a message about "База — 52ой выпуск", likely an operational summary or analysis. Рыбарь also shared a photo message "«Коалиция желающих» готовится", which appears to be a propaganda image. Рыбарь posts "Срыв учета", potentially referring to disruption of UAF personnel accounting. UPDATED: Rybar posts on "PAS Catastrophe" (Moldova). (Source: Рыбарь). Рыбарь posts an immediate assessment regarding European "freedom." (Source: Рыбарь). Rybar shares an illustrative graphic with "British missiles guarding the Ukrainian sky." (Source: Рыбарь). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zakarpattia Oblast: RUF media claims a Hungarian citizen was beaten to death during mobilization efforts in Zakarpattia. This is currently an unverified claim, but if true, could escalate diplomatic tensions. Photos show children from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast being transported to a camp in Zakarpattia Oblast (Source: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)). This indicates internal displacement support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Tula Oblast, Russian Federation: Residents report a large number of explosions. ASTRA reports explosions heard in Proletarskyi district, Tula, where three major defense industry enterprises are located. RBC-Ukraine also reports drone attack on Tula. One person killed, one injured in Tula Oblast due to UAV attack. "Два майора" reports one injured, 13 drones shot down over Tula Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a loud morning near the Tula Instrument Design Bureau. STERNENKO reports repeat drone attacks on Kronstadt UAV production facility in Dubna, Moscow Oblast. UPDATED: ASTRA reports 4 defense enterprises were attacked in Tula Oblast overnight. (Source: ASTRA). Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of a public safety advisory regarding "Typhoon" Instrument-Making Plant, claiming a massive strike is imminent. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukrainian Air Force Alert: UAF Air Force reports attention for updated enemy drone movements. UAF Air Force reports a UAV on northern Kyiv Oblast moving southwest, and a UAV threat in Zhytomyr Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat to Odesa Oblast from Black Sea. UAF Air Force reports a RUF UAV in Brahin, Belarus, heading southwest. UAF Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile attack from the south, affecting multiple regions. UAF Air Force reports the ballistic missile threat has been called off. UAF Air Force reports new RUF UAVs in Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kirovohrad Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports a rapid-speed target (likely missile) moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports launches of KABs by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. RBC-Україна reports "about 20 drones" potentially over Ukraine, according to Air Force. UAF Air Force reports 44 strike UAVs shot down (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). RBC-Ukraine confirms 44/79 drones shot down, 16 lost (Source: РБК-Україна). UPDATED: Ballistic missile threat alert across multiple Ukrainian oblasts. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна). UAF Air Force reports termination of the ballistic missile threat. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). Zaporizhzhia OVA reports termination of air raid siren. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). UAF General Staff reports 44 strike UAVs shot down. (Source: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Verolyubovka): RUF "Yug" Group claims destruction of a UAF "Kozak" armored vehicle near Verolyubovka. Video provided by TASS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation: A UAF drone reportedly attacked the Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, which manufactures MiG-29, MiG-23, MiG-29K/KUB, and MiG-29M/M2 fighters. Video shows a fiery explosion. ASTRA shares photo message about the UAV attack on Lukhovitsy. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares video of UAV attack on Lukhovitsy. ASTRA confirms attack on Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, wall of compressor station collapsed. UPDATED: Video from BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows apparent drone impact. (Source: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). Новости Москвы reports 10,000 tick bites in Moscow region since the season began. (Source: Новости Москвы). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Leningrad Oblast, Russian Federation (Pulkovo Airport): Pulkovo Airport temporarily suspended operations due to drone activity. ASTRA confirms temporary suspension for 08:45 to 09:45 MSK. TASS reports Pulkovo Airport resumed operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Federation (General): TASS reports the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung suggests Ukraine has two ways to avoid complete defeat, both involving some form of retreat. Север.Реалии reports BBC confirmed 118,000 Russian deaths and 523 foreign deaths in Ukraine. Russia's total confirmed deaths exceed 118,000 (Source: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники). UPDATED: Russian Football Club "Orenburg" to replace Moscow "Torpedo" in Premier League. (Source: ТАСС). Sever.Realii reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense may send its only aircraft carrier, "Admiral Kuznetsov," to the scrapyard, indicating significant material loss or maintenance challenges. (Source: Север.Реалии). WarGonzo shares video claiming China conducted an amphibious landing drill on Taiwan. (Source: WarGonzo). UPDATED: A study reports 34% of Russian residents could not buy medicines in 2024. (Source: Север.Реалии). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kharkiv Oblast (Residential Areas): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shared aerial footage of damaged residential buildings, suggesting recent combat or strikes in urban areas. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Ukraine (General Losses): UAF General Staff reports a total of 1040 Russian personnel killed on 11 JUL 2025. OTU "Kharkiv" provides estimated RUF losses. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares photos of "successfully demobilized" RUF personnel. Colonel Sergey Ilyin, commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, was liquidated on July 2. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares photos of "successfully demobilized" (killed) RUF personnel. STERNENKO reports that a Russian propagandist confirmed the liquidation of Colonel Sergey Ilyin, commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, in addition to Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Mikhail Gudkov, as a result of a strike on the 155th Brigade's headquarters. Басурин о главном reports 19-year-old Artem Melnik liquidated on the front, framing him as a "meme" from 2014. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms liquidation of Captain 2nd Rank Shipunov Oleksandr, Head of Staff, Communication and Troop Management for 155th Guards Marine Brigade. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports UAF liquidated the commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, Sergey Ilyin, in Kursk Oblast during a strike. (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports the liquidation of Captain Vladislav Yakovenko, commander of a sabotage and reconnaissance group from the 140th SSO Center of the AFU, by forces of the "Sever" Group. (Source: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Fiber Optic Cables): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares photo messages titled "UAF Fiber Optics," showing product labels for fiber optic cables. This is likely intelligence on UAF communication infrastructure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kazakhstan: "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares a video of an individual walking in Kazakhstan with anti-Putin graffiti, indicating anti-RUF sentiment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation: Глеб Никитин shares photos of city landscaping and monuments, indicating efforts to showcase normalcy. Глеб Никитин shares photos of "Olenya Luna" (Deer Moon) over Nizhny Novgorod Kremlin, again unrelated to military operations but promoting normalcy. Alex Parker Returns reports ban on migrant workers in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast was lifted due to labor shortages in public catering, hotels, taxis, and cleaning. This is an economic factor impacting workforce. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kyiv Metro: The Office of the Prosecutor General released a video on "Kyiv Metro: tunnel destruction between Demiivska and Lybidska – it's about irresponsibility," which suggests an ongoing internal investigation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donbas (General): The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that a lieutenant colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been notified of suspicion for causing 25.5 million hryvnias in damages to the state budget. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kyiv Oblast (Bobrytsia): The Office of the Prosecutor General reports stopping illegal sand extraction in Bobrytsia, Kyiv Oblast, with photo evidence. UPDATED: Children and caregivers spending day at Sobi Club in Kyiv suburb as part of "People of the Future" project. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Internal Affairs): RBC-Ukraine reports searches are being conducted on ex-minister Kubrakov. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports new charges in a case of supplying low-quality clothing to UAF, with damages of 1.16 billion UAH. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine shares photo messages about "Армія+" survey results, indicating internal feedback and reforms within the Ukrainian military. RBC-Ukraine reports Kubrakov reacted to information about searches at his place. MP Shevchenko received new suspicion regarding fertilizer fraud from Belarus (Source: РБК-Україна). UPDATED: "Резерв+" app now allows online payment of fines for not updating personal data. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration reports that schoolchildren from Zaporizhzhia went on a two-day educational trip to Bila Tserkva, and learned about the work of a top pharmaceutical enterprise in Ukraine. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). UPDATED: Oleksandr Vilkul from Kryvyi Rih shares photos and videos of efforts to strengthen the thermal autonomy of city hospitals, showing industrial pumping equipment. (Source: Олександр Вілкул). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zaporizhzhia Direction: Zaporizhzhia OVA releases video of drone footage showing combat operations, including strikes on trenches and vehicles. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Malynivka in Huliaipole direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
France: "Два майора" reports France has resumed production of SCALP cruise missiles after a 15-year break, with accompanying photos of missile components and assembly. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Odesa Oblast (General): Colonelcassad shares video claiming the attack on Odesa TCC originated from the sea. Военкор Котенок, "Два майора", "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺", Kotsnews, and WarGonzo all confirm RUF strike on Odesa TCC. ASTRA reports aftermath of drone attack on Odesa with visible damage to a car service building. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a RUF drone over Odesa beach (Arcadia). Операция Z and Alex Parker Returns share photo and video messages of explosions/strikes on Odesa TCC. RBC-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report 8 injured in Odesa night attack. Zelenskiy / Official reports morning attack on Odesa Oblast. ASTRA reports Zelensky confirmed the attack on Odesa and the city council reported eight injured. The ASTRA video shows damaged buildings and an injured horse, reinforcing civilian impact. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video of a significant explosion, captioned "П...ц ТЦК" (F***ed TCC), further confirming the strike on the Odesa TCC. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a horse killed, several injured at a stable in Odesa, further reinforcing civilian impact. UPDATED: Number of injured in Odesa drone attack rises to 9. (Source: РБК-Україна). Video shows damaged buildings, injured animals (horses, dog), and rescue personnel in Odesa aftermath. (Source: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦). "Два майора" posted an image of an alleged incident at "Privoz" market in Odesa, further highlighting civilian impact. (Source: Два майора). STERNENKO reports a horse was killed and animals injured at a stable in Odesa following Russian strikes, with accompanying videos of the aftermath including damaged buildings and injured animals. (Source: STERNENKO). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sweden: ASTRA reports on a Russian family living in Sweden for 16 years, with two children born there, facing deportation to Tajikistan despite not having citizenship of any country and speaking Swedish better than Russian. This highlights a humanitarian/political issue with potential implications for international relations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Turkey/Kurds: Alex Parker Returns reports on an alleged victory by Turkey over the PKK, claiming Kurdish fighters have begun disarming in northern Iraq, signaling a significant geopolitical shift in the Middle East. Colonelcassad shares photos and videos from Iraq, featuring soldiers around a large bowl-shaped structure and moving down a staircase, likely related to counter-PKK operations or training exercises. (Source: Colonelcassad). CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Orlov Oblast, Russian Federation: ASTRA reports the Governor of Orlov Oblast announced damage to a "regional enterprise." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Internal Affairs): Mash na Donbasse reports 7 years in prison for a Zaporizhzhia Oblast resident for hand grenades in refrigerator. TASS reports court satisfied claim of Prosecutor General's Office to seize shares of "Yuzhurazoloto". Court in Chelyabinsk nationalized shares of "Yuzhurazoloto" based on Prosecutor General's claim (Source: ASTRA). UPDATED: Lugansk residents to be without water due to power substation repairs during heatwave. (Source: Mash na Donbasse). TASS reports a prosecutor is requesting a 10-year prison sentence for Sergey Abramov, a corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, for financing extremism, indicating ongoing internal crackdown. (Source: ТАСС). General SVR reports on internal Russian political dynamics. (Source: General SVR). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Internal Affairs): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports suspicion notified to a People's Deputy of Ukraine, likely regarding corruption or misconduct. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Diplomacy): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports Valeriy Zaluzhny (former Commander-in-Chief of UAF) published an article for Ukrainian Pravda on Ukraine's strategy in building security alliances amid geopolitical instability. UPDATED: Head of GUR Kyrylo Budanov gave an interview to Bloomberg, stating that ceasefire must be achieved ASAP, before end of the year, and that RUF wants to go 10km deep into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). RBC-Ukraine announces more meetings between Ukraine and the US at various levels. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Diplomacy): TASS reports Peskov stated Russia continues work on prisoner and body exchanges with Ukraine, and is awaiting proposals from Ukraine on direct negotiations. He also declined to reveal details of Russia's proposals to US Secretary of State Rubio. "War correspondents of Russian Spring" (RUF propaganda) report Peskov's statements regarding Russia waiting for Trump's "important statement" on Monday (Source: Операция Z). UPDATED: Peskov states Brussels pushing Kyiv to continue war until "last Ukrainian". (Source: ТАСС). Операция Z reports Putin is confident in increasing advantages and not willing to make concessions under US pressure, according to NYT. (Source: Операция Z). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Cultural Impact): Zelenskiy / Official shares video tribute to Igor Poklad, Ukrainian composer, focusing on his legacy. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Global Diplomacy: UK Defense Minister John Healey states UK is ready to send troops to Ukraine to ensure a potential ceasefire as part of a new "Coalition of the Willing" international initiative from the EU. (Source: Воин DV). Keith Kellogg, Trump's special envoy, is expected to visit Kyiv on July 14 for a week. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, STERNENKO). UPDATED: Polish Minister of National Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz states Ukraine must officially recognize the Volyn massacre and genocide of the Polish people. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Internal Affairs (Medical): Новости Москвы reports doctors in Russian regions have started treating cancer with oak bark and chamomile, suggesting potential issues in access to modern medicine or alternative practices gaining traction. (Source: Новости Москвы). UPDATED: A study reports 34% of Russian residents could not buy medicines in 2024. (Source: Север.Реалии). CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Russian Internal Affairs (Drones): Филолог в засаде announces a "Dronnitsa" meeting on September 6-7, signaling continued focus and development in drone technology within Russia. (Source: Филолог в засаде). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Fuel Exports): TASS reports the Russian government may introduce a full ban on gasoline exports, including for producers, if necessary, to stabilize the domestic fuel market. (Source: ТАСС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Volunteer Support): Colonelcassad reports a collection drive for a 4th vehicle column for "KatyaValya" line, indicating ongoing civilian support for the front. (Source: Colonelcassad). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video appealing for donations for paratroopers. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). UPDATED: Crimean Head Sergey Aksyonov approved additional one-time payments for SVO participants from Crimea. (Source: Colonelcassad). Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message about "If you have..." and a Russian military medal, implying a call for support or recruitment. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
Kyiv: Lingering smoke and burning smell due to RUF aerial attack, leading to poor air quality. Severe hailstorm occurred near Kyiv (Boryspil and Pereyaslav districts), causing localized damage. Electricity deficit due to heat. Moscow forecasts peak heat of +36°C, which could apply to neighboring areas impacting operations.
Rostov Oblast: Forest fires increasing in size.
Lviv & Lutsk: Severe flooding significantly impacts ground movement and strains emergency services. RBC-Ukraine reports 230 houses flooded in Lviv Oblast due to a year's worth of rain in one day. UPDATED: Drone footage shows widespread flooding in Lviv. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Irkutsk: Oil contamination on the Angara River indicates internal RUF environmental challenges.
Dagestan: Water poisoning indicates a localized health crisis. Water poisoning crisis has expanded to 372 affected, with 357 children.
Bryansk Oblast: Forecasted severe thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds for July 11. AV БогомаZ reports severe weather warnings for Bryansk Oblast on July 12, including thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds.
Donetsk Region: Extreme heat conditions (+60C direct sunlight, +41C shade) will impact personnel and equipment performance on the frontlines.
Moscow: Experiencing hottest day of the year (+33.7°C), leading to recommendations for reduced working hours and free water distribution.
Kursk Oblast: UAV attack resulted in fires at production facilities of a major agro-holding.
Lipetsk Oblast: UAV threat reported by local governor for Elets and Eletskiy district. UAF drone fell on farm in Khlevensky district, Lipetsk Oblast, causing fire.
Belgorod Oblast: Proximity to the border with Ukraine is preventing reconstruction efforts in some villages.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Damage to an agricultural enterprise and fire in Pokrovska Hromada due to UAV strike.
General: RUF media amplifying flooding in Western Ukraine as "boomerang" for St. Petersburg flooding (disinformation). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lugansk (occupied): Residents will be without water due to repairs of power substations during a heatwave. (Source: Mash na Donbasse). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
UAF:
Air Defense: Actively engaged in protracted air defense operations over Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, shooting down 178 out of 397 drones and 18 missiles. Successfully neutralized five (5) RUF UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Engaged reconnaissance UAVs over Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Sumy. Tracking UAVs towards Western Ukraine. New group of RUF strike UAVs reported moving towards Lyubotyn, Kharkiv Oblast. New groups of RUF strike UAVs are moving through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast. RUF strike UAVs are now reported in the suburbs of Sumy. UAF Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. Zelenskyy states Germany is ready to finance two Patriot systems, with Norway funding an additional one. KMA has launched a full-fledged system for intercepting enemy drones flying into Kyiv. All incoming "mopeds" (UAVs) in Mykolaiv area have been neutralized. UAF Air Defense shot down 3 UAVs over Smolensk Oblast. Pulkovo Airport temporarily suspended operations due to drone activity. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a UAF drone attack on Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant near Moscow. STERNENKO reports repeat drone attacks on Kronstadt UAV production facility in Dubna, Moscow Oblast. UAF Air Force reports an unidentified UAV in Chernihiv airspace and a strike UAV past Chernihiv, course for Mykhailo-Kotsiubynske. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAV in Kryvyi Rih area. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAV in Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile attack from the south, affecting multiple regions. UAF Air Force reports the ballistic missile threat has been called off. UAF Air Force reports new RUF UAVs in Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kirovohrad Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports a rapid-speed target (likely missile) moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RBC-Україна reports "about 20 drones" potentially over Ukraine, according to Air Force. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports a successful drone neutralization. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, means engaged to shoot them down. UAF Air Force reports 44 strike UAVs shot down out of 79 launched (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна). UPDATED: Ballistic missile threat alert across multiple Ukrainian oblasts. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна). UAF Air Force reports termination of ballistic missile threat. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). Zaporizhzhia OVA reports termination of air raid siren. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report a new record of 268 Russian UAVs shot down by "Trojka" air defense units in a month. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UAF General Staff reports 44 UAVs shot down. (Source: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ground Forces: General Staff reports repelling 14 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. Maintaining defensive posture against RUF ground advances on critical axes in Donbas, Kupyansk/Kharkiv, and Kherson direction. DeepState reports approx. 40 FPV drone strikes in Dobropillia by UAF. UAF Southern Defense Forces continue strikes on enemy positions. SBS in cooperation with 74th ORB aerial reconnaissance destroyed a Buk anti-aircraft missile system, a Strela anti-aircraft missile system, and other armored vehicles in the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk border area. Operatyvnyi ZSU released a video showing a Ukrainian drone targeting and neutralizing an enemy combatant near a damaged building. General Staff of UAF released a video showing the 36th Separate Marine Brigade conducting amphibious assault training. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled a RUF assault on Toretsk direction, involving a "Tsar-tank." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of 68th Separate Jaeger Brigade clearing fortifications in destroyed buildings. Zaporizhzhia OVA releases video of drone footage showing UAF combat operations, including strikes on trenches and vehicles. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports "OMEGA-WEST" special forces unit cleared a multi-story building. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Andriyivka, Kindrashivka, Volodymyrivka, Nova Nich, Sadky of Sumy region, Oleksiyivka of Dnipropetrovsk region, Pokrovsk of Donetsk region, Zaliznychne, Bilohirya, Novoandriyivka, Plavni of Zaporizhzhia region, Lvove of Kherson region. UAF General Staff provides updated reports on clashes in Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, Kherson, Kursk, and North Slobozhansky directions. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shares photos of soldiers training, indicating ongoing combat readiness and adaptation. Сили оборони Півдня України shares video of cooperation between artillery and drones from Dnipro Battalion with pilots of RUBPAK 108th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade. UPDATED: DSHV calls for donations for "Optical Rusorez" (reconnaissance and attack drones). (Source: STERNENKO). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian assault in Chasiv Yar, destroying an armored vehicle and its crew. (Source: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition reports the liquidation of Captain Vladislav Yakovenko, commander of a sabotage and reconnaissance group from the 140th SSO Center of the AFU, by forces of the "Sever" Group. (Source: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition). DeepState shares video of RUF FPV drone operations on the Kramatorsk-Dobropillia road, showing damaged vehicles. (Source: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦). STERNENKO shares a photo message showing a Russian occupant allegedly killed by a drone strike while attempting to steal a washing machine. (Source: STERNENKO). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Logistics/Support: Emergency services actively engaged in damage assessment, firefighting, and casualty management in Kyiv (28 injured). Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons conducting outreach meetings. Zaporizhzhia OVA transferred DJI Mavic 3 drones and EcoFlow power stations to the front. DeepState reports new e-points for faster drone/EW procurement. Fundraising efforts for anti-thermal cloaks. STERNENKO reports 40.1 million UAH collected out of 50 million needed. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that a lieutenant colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been notified of suspicion for causing 25.5 million hryvnias in damages to the state budget. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports new charges in a case of supplying low-quality clothing to UAF, with damages of 1.16 billion UAH. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video explaining how "wanted" persons are legally pursued in Ukraine, including references to articles of the Criminal Code and the Code of Ukraine on Administrative Offenses concerning detention, prosecution, and martial law, likely a public information campaign. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photo messages about "Армія+" survey results, indicating internal feedback and reforms within the Ukrainian military, possibly for improving logistical or personnel management. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими shares photos of a meeting with families of 36th Separate Marine Brigade soldiers on POW/MIA issues. STERNENKO reports 41 million out of 50 million UAH collected for anti-thermal cloaks. Ukrainian children from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast sent to a camp in Zakarpattia Oblast (Source: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)). This is a civilian support measure. UPDATED: Children and caregivers of "People of the Future" project spend day at Sobi Club near Kyiv. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). Zaporizhzhia schoolchildren embarked on an educational trip, highlighting continued efforts for civilian well-being and education despite conflict. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). The Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons met with families of the 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, focusing on soldiers missing near Pobieda, demonstrating ongoing support for families of service members. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). Oleksandr Vilkul from Kryvyi Rih shares photos and videos of efforts to strengthen the thermal autonomy of city hospitals, showing industrial pumping equipment. This indicates proactive measures for civilian sustainment. (Source: Олександр Вілкул). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Governance/Diplomacy: KMA and Operational Armed Forces of Ukraine providing updated reports on Kyiv attack consequences. Zelensky emphasizes need for recovery coalition and Marshall Plan. Zelensky states Ukraine is ready for EU accession talks. Zelenskiy and Oleg Syniehubov are livestreaming a press conference. Zelenskyy states strong sanctions will influence Russia's willingness to negotiate. Zelenskyy projects that Putin may spend 300 billion USD on the war next year. He also confirms that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are not currently taking place. Zelenskyy's official channel shares video of a high-level "Coalition of Willing" meeting with US representatives. German Chancellor Merz states Russia must pay Ukraine €500 billion in damages. Zelenskyy met with Bulgarian PM, EU Commission President, and Polish Prime Minister. RBC-Ukraine reports Macron suggests core peacekeeping force for Ukraine could reach 50,000 troops. RBC-Ukraine reports Trump will use his authority to send weapons to Ukraine for the first time. The Office of the Prosecutor General informed suspicion to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev for war crimes. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports stopping illegal sand extraction in Bobrytsia, Kyiv Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports searches on ex-minister Kubrakov. Олександр Вілкул shares photos from a meeting, captioning "RECONSTRUCT BETTER THAN IT WAS", indicating focus on recovery and rebuilding. RBC-Ukraine reports the European Commission wants to propose a floating price cap mechanism on Russian oil. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares Trump's statements on being disappointed with Russia, and that NATO allies will pay for US weapons for Ukraine. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТИEDОТТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) shares video of Giorgia Meloni at a conference, discussing increased pressure on Moscow because Italians and Europeans are tired of the war. РБК-Україна reports Zelensky confirmed the attack on Odesa and the city council reported eight injured. РБК-Україна reports Zelensky reacted to the damage to the maternity hospital in Kharkiv, stating "Russia targets life." Офіс Генерального прокурора reports suspicion notified to a People's Deputy of Ukraine. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on Valeriy Zaluzhny's article on Ukraine's strategy in building security alliances. The "Rerezerv+" app now allows online payment of fines with a 50% discount (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). RBC-Ukraine reports that Kellogg announced his trip to Kyiv, indicating continued high-level visits and diplomatic support. (Source: РБК-Україна). UPDATED: Keith Kellogg, special envoy of Trump, will visit Kyiv on July 14 and stay for a week. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, STERNENKO). RBC-Ukraine reports a new stage of drone combat where Ukraine is preparing a response to jet attacks, with an image of a person appearing to be a defense official, indicating strategic planning against future threats. (Source: РБК-Україна). Head of GUR Kyrylo Budanov gave an interview to Bloomberg, stating that ceasefire must be achieved ASAP, before end of the year, and that RUF wants to go 10km deep into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). RBC-Ukraine announces more meetings between Ukraine and the US at various levels, with video. (Source: РБК-Україна). Polish Minister of National Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz states Ukraine must officially recognize the Volyn massacre and genocide of the Polish people. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
RUF:
Deep Operations: Executed a protracted, complex, multi-domain aerial attack on Kyiv for 10-11 hours using 397 drones and 18 ballistic missiles, causing significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Continues KAB/KAR launches against Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk. Employing reconnaissance UAVs over Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, and sending new UAV groups towards Western Ukraine. Claimed Iskander strike on UAF 35th Marine Brigade PVD in Barativka, Mykolaiv Oblast, and Iskander-M strike on UAF PVD in Chervone, Kherson Oblast. RUF is reportedly using RAM pickup trucks for Geran (Shahed) drone launches. RUF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes concentrated on Mykolaiv overnight. RUF MoD reports 155 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, including 11 over Moscow region, and 19 over Bryansk Oblast. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reports RUF drone strike on an agricultural enterprise in Pokrovska Hromada. RUF forces launched 6 UAVs on Sumy community this morning. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches tactical aviation on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy attack UAVs on Odesa. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports 7 drones from the sea towards Odesa. RBC-Ukraine and STERNENKO confirm drone attack on Odesa, with explosions reported. "Два майора" reports 6 hits in Odesa. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports an impact on a TCC in Odesa. Военкор Котенок, "Два майора", "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺", Kotsnews, and WarGonzo all confirm RUF strike on Odesa TCC. Colonelcassad shares video claiming the attack on Odesa TCC originated from the sea. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Oleksiyivka of Dnipropetrovsk region, Pokrovsk of Donetsk region, Zaliznychne, Bilohirya, Novoandriyivka, Plavni of Zaporizhzhia region, Lvove of Kherson region. Операция Z and Alex Parker Returns share photo and video messages of explosions/strikes on Odesa TCC. ТАСС reports UAF attacked Energodar administration building with a loitering munition. ТАСС reports that Russian troops conducted 6 group strikes with high-precision weapons, including Kinzhal missiles, against military targets in Ukraine over the past week. MoD Russia reiterates 6 group strikes with high-precision weapons between July 5-11. UPDATED: Fire at Orsk Mechanical Plant, producer of artillery shells. (Source: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ). Colonelcassad shows video claiming "Odessa residents are objectively monitoring the arrival of Russian kamikaze drones of the Geran type." (Source: Colonelcassad). TASS reports Russian air defense shot down a Ukrainian drone over the Black Sea. (Source: ТАСС). ASTRA reports 4 defense enterprises were attacked in Tula Oblast overnight. (Source: ASTRA). Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of a public safety advisory regarding "Typhoon" Instrument-Making Plant, claiming a massive strike is imminent. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ground Forces: Sustaining attritional ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Siversk, west of Avdiivka, Konstantinovka-Yablonovka, Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Toretsk directions, Karlo Marksa) and Kharkiv/Kupyansk axes (Vovchansk, Lyptsi, Borova/Borovska Andriivka). Claims of "liberated Dachne." RUF paratroopers claim to be "burning enemy equipment and UAV control points" near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast. "Kadyrov_95" details "Akhmat" special forces operations in Alexandrovka, Sumy Oblast. Enemy forces, primarily elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army and 11th Army Corps, are attempting to consolidate tactical gains near Lyptsi and Vovchansk. Elements of the 83rd Air Assault Brigade have been identified moving towards Vovchansk. Enemy forces have intensified ground assaults on the eastern suburbs of Chasiv Yar, employing "human wave" tactics. Increased pressure maintained along Pokrovsk axis. "Операция Z" reports Russian forces are advancing towards Zelenyi Hai and Borovska Andriivka. RUF 64th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, 35th Army conducting "fire sweeping" of forest belts in the Huliaipole direction. TASS reports UAF was forced to retreat from Zelena Dolyna. "Воин DV" claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade annihilated UAF armored personnel carrier (BTR) in Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk direction. "Операция Z" claims Russian army occupied most of Mirny and reached Voskresenka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled a RUF assault on Toretsk direction, involving a "Tsar-tank." "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims ВКС РФ destroyed two UAF platoons in Dnipropetrovsk direction. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday in Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, Kherson, Kursk, and North Slobozhansky directions. TASS reports UAF has concentrated most combat-ready forces, including "Birds of Hungary" and "Wild Hornets" strike group, on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) section of the front. Kadyrov_95 shares video claiming "Akhmat-Chechnya" regiment established full control over Novonykolaivka, Sumy Oblast. ТАСС and Colonelcassad reports that Russian forces liberated Zelena Dolyna in DPR. Операция Z confirms the liberation of Zelena Dolyna. MoD Russia reports Zelenaya Dolina (DPR) and Sobolevka (Kharkiv region) were liberated by Zapad Group of Forces. UPDATED: "Arcangel Spetsnaza" claims battles for Kamenskoye are over. (Source: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА). RUF claims advance towards Konstantinovka, taking positions in Dzerzhinsk. (Source: Басурин о главном). Kotsnews shares videos showing Russian soldiers describing operations to take Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast, reporting on encountered enemy equipment and successful infiltration. (Source: Kotsnews). UPDATED: MoD Russia shares video of TOS-1A Solntsepyok destroying enemy fortification in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (Source: MoD Russia). Video from НгП раZVедка shows an explosion in a forested area, likely an artillery or airstrike. (Source: НгП раZVедка). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Force Generation/Logistics: New Su-34 deliveries reported. Electronic registry for conscription notices fully operational. Relying on public support for tactical equipment. "Старше Эдды" discusses the high expenditure of anti-aircraft missiles and the need for cheaper air defense options. ASTRA reports that only just over 70 war participants have been demobilized in the past year. "Два майора" is seen appealing for donations for "assault forces" on the Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad posts a video of a NRTK "Courier" robot delivering cargo to assault teams. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares video of humanitarian aid delivery by Russian forces. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shows a military award ceremony for "For the Assault" sign, acknowledging battlefield valor and possibly boosting morale/recruitment. "Народная милиция ДНР" shares images showing two drones and a QR code with a shield, captioned "From the volunteers 2.0," indicating continued reliance on and promotion of volunteer support for tactical equipment. MoD Russia reports military signalmen of the 44th Army Corps (Sever Group of Forces) are conducting drills to deploy secure means of communication with assault detachments. This includes training on the R-187-P1 'Azart' radio station. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims number of Ukrainian deserters exceeded 230,000, with Kyiv estimating half a million, and emphasizes forced mobilization in Ukraine (RUF propaganda). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a mobilized individual was released after their publication, possibly highlighting public pressure on mobilization issues. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo of a woman in a military uniform, implying a propaganda piece with the caption "Zaluzhny is begging the US for expired missiles," indicating efforts to discredit Ukrainian military leadership and portray the dire state of Ukrainian supplies. TASS reports guardians of fallen SVO fighters will receive social support, draft law to be submitted to State Duma. "Верстка" (Russian publication) reports that only 12% of detained Russian criminals are willing to go to the front (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). This suggests challenges in penal recruitment. Филолог в засаде announced a "Dronnitsa" meeting, indicating continued focus on drone development and innovation within Russia. (Source: Филолог в засаде). UPDATED: TASS reports the Russian government may introduce a full ban on gasoline exports. (Source: ТАСС). Colonelcassad reports a collection drive for a 4th vehicle column. (Source: Colonelcassad). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video appealing for donations for paratroopers. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). Crimean Head Sergey Aksyonov approved additional one-time payments for SVO participants from Crimea. (Source: Colonelcassad). A photo message from Alex Parker Returns appears to depict a social media post with text regarding "If you have..." and includes an image of a Russian military medal, likely related to volunteer support or recruitment. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). A video from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники appears to show an interrogator threatening a serviceman with deployment to assault, indicating potential coercive mobilization tactics. (Source: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Internal Security: FSB claims detention of two UAF military intelligence agents in Melitopol and one in Crimea. FSB claims prevention of a terrorist attack in Krasnodar Krai. Alleged assassination of SBU Colonel Ivan Voronich in Kyiv. Azerbaijan has arrested two former "Wagner" employees. TASS reports that Ukrainian Dilyaver Kurshutov, planning to poison Russian military, is accused under five articles of the Russian Criminal Code. TASS reports an individual wanted for trading personal data of Russians has been extradited from Indonesia. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports a Voronezh official, Gennady Shvyrkov, was detained for fraud against "SVO" fighters. TASS reports FSB detained two residents of Bryansk Oblast for collecting data on MOD facilities and preparing attacks, also receiving explosives via UAV. Полиция Хабаровского края reports an award to a police captain for assisting a sick man, aimed at showcasing positive internal actions. "Два майора" reports FSB conducted an operation in Bryansk Oblast, apprehending an individual and seizing disassembled drones, propellers, batteries, remote controls, laptops, and a handgun with a silencer, confirming ongoing counter-espionage efforts. Colonelcassad shares a video message claiming the detention of two Ukrainian special services agents who were carrying out intelligence and subversive activities in Bryansk and neighboring regions, further confirming RUF counter-intelligence operations. TASS reports State Duma Committee approved draft law strengthening responsibility for foreign agents. TASS reports court satisfied claim of Prosecutor General's Office to seize shares of "Yuzhurazoloto". TASS reports a prosecutor is seeking a 10-year sentence for former head of GABTU Ministry of Defense's utilization service, Timofeev, for large-scale bribery, indicating ongoing corruption within the MOD. (Source: ТАСС). ASTRA reports the Prosecutor General's Office wants to recover nearly 1 billion rubles from the organizers of defensive structures on the Belgorod border with Ukraine due to alleged financial irregularities. (Source: ASTRA). UPDATED: Video from Alex Parker Returns shows a physical altercation in a store in North Ossetia, alleged to be a Dagestani man beaten for wearing shorts, potentially indicative of inter-ethnic tensions within Russia. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). TASS reports Russia extradited a person accused of violence against a 12-year-old girl to Latvia. (Source: ТАСС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities: RUF demonstrates high capability for sustained, protracted, multi-vector aerial strikes integrating ballistic missiles and large volumes of drones. This capability extends with new strike UAV groups moving towards Kharkiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, Sumy, Lipetsk Oblast, Tula Oblast, and now Odesa. RUF is capable of deep strikes on aviation plants (Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, Beriev Aviation Plant in Taganrog) and military production facilities (Kronstadt UAV production facility, Tula Instrument Design Bureau), and regional enterprises (Orlov Oblast). UPDATED: Fire at Orsk Mechanical Plant indicates RUF vulnerability in artillery shell production but also highlights a potential target for UAF deep strikes. (Source: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ). Maintains effective FPV drone and tactical aviation (KAB/KAR) capabilities for frontline support and precision targeting. Retains capacity for attritional ground assaults aiming for incremental gains, including "human wave" tactics in Chasiv Yar. Demonstrated counter-UAV effectiveness (155 UAVs shot down over Russia). Possesses deep-state kinetic special operations capability (alleged SBU Colonel assassination). Strong counter-intelligence and internal security apparatus. Sustained domestic defense industrial output. Increasing capacity for forced manpower mobilization. Developing homemade UGVs. Adapting with mobile drone launch platforms. Demonstrated capability for establishing wireless communication links in operational areas. Claims of a "tank-monster" enduring 60 drone strikes suggest an adapting approach to vehicle survivability. MoD Russia is demonstrating capability for rapid and secure communication deployment to forward assault detachments, enhancing tactical C2 and coordination. RUF demonstrates capability to destroy enemy UAV launch positions using TOS-1A Solntsepyok. ТАСС reports that Russian forces conducted 6 group strikes with high-precision weapons, including Kinzhal missiles, against military targets in Ukraine over the past week, demonstrating continued capability for high-value precision strikes. RUF capabilities for ground operations in Lyman direction confirmed by video showing artillery strikes and infantry movement (Source: ТАСС, Басурин о главном). RUF capabilities for ground operations in Sumy Oblast are evident from claimed capture of Bessalovka. (Source: Kotsnews). WarGonzo's video claiming China's amphibious landing drill demonstrates RUF's interest in and propagation of information on other military powers' capabilities, which could be analyzed for potential emulation or strategic alignment. (Source: WarGonzo). UPDATED: MoD Russia shares video of TOS-1A Solntsepyok destroying enemy fortification, showcasing its capabilities. (Source: MoD Russia). A video from НгП раZVедка shows an explosion in a forested area, likely an artillery or airstrike, indicating RUF's continued capability for destructive strikes. (Source: НгП раZVедка). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Intentions:
Degrade UAF Air Defenses & Civilian Morale: Primary intent of protracted, integrated aerial attacks is to exhaust UAF air defense munitions/personal, inflict maximum civilian casualties and damage, and cause panic/demoralization. Targeting civilian infrastructure and medical facilities confirms this. The new UAV groups reinforce intent to apply air pressure across multiple axes and target military-industrial infrastructure. Recent strikes on Odesa confirm RUF intent to target additional major Ukrainian cities from the Black Sea, particularly recruitment centers. The confirmed strike on Odesa TCC underscores RUF intent to specifically target Ukrainian military recruitment infrastructure, aiming to disrupt force generation. Strikes on medical facilities and maternity hospitals aim to maximize psychological impact and civilian casualties. Ballistic missile launch towards Vilkove indicates intent to continue long-range precision strikes against coastal targets. UPDATED: Budanov's statement about RUF intent to go 10km deep into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reveals a new, aggressive operational objective aimed at territorial penetration. (Source: РБК-Україна). RUF intends to continue to target Ukrainian defense industrial complexes, as evidenced by the warning of an imminent strike on the "Typhoon" Instrument-Making Plant. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ).
Degrade RUF Military-Industrial Complex (asymmetric/reciprocal): UAF drone attacks in Lipetsk, Tula, Moscow Oblasts, and Beriev Aviation Plant indicate UAF intent to strike Russian military-industrial targets and supporting infrastructure as reciprocal action.
Achieve Incremental Territorial Gains & Breakthroughs: Continue attritional ground assaults in Donbas and Kharkiv, aiming for tactical advances and consolidation. Commitment of 83rd AAB signals intent for significant momentum or a new thrust. RUF operations in Huliaipole direction suggest intent to probe or fix UAF defenses. TASS claim of UAF grouping in Pokrovsk/Dimitrov being in a "fire bag" indicates intent to encircle and eliminate UAF forces. Concentration of "most combat-ready" UAF forces on the Pokrovsk axis (as claimed by TASS) indicates RUF intent to engage and neutralize high-value UAF units in this sector, supporting broader Donbas objectives. RUF seeks to establish full control over settlements in Sumy Oblast, as claimed by Kadyrov_95 in Novonykolaivka. The declared liberation of Zelena Dolyna indicates RUF intent to achieve territorial gains. The claimed liberation of Sobolevka in Kharkiv region indicates RUF intent to expand control and apply pressure in this axis. Claims of Kamenskoye capture and advance on Dzerzhinsk/Konstantinovka indicate RUF intent to continue offensive operations on the Donetsk axis. RUF intends to conduct ground operations in Sumy Oblast as evidenced by claimed capture of Bessalovka.
Disrupt UAF Logistics & C2: Continue targeting UAF rear areas, supply points, engineering equipment, and rotation attempts. Actively seeking to destroy Starlink equipment. RUF also targets UAF administration buildings, such as the one in Energodar. RUF intends to disrupt UAF special operations capabilities, as indicated by the reported liquidation of a SSO group commander.
Subvert Ukrainian Internal Security: Alleged SBU Colonel assassination demonstrates an intent to cause internal instability. Unverified claim of Hungarian citizen killed during mobilization could be intended to stir ethnic tensions. Alleged poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia indicates RUF intent to conduct acts of terrorism.
Intensify Information Warfare: Sustain and escalate disinformation campaigns to justify aggression, demoralize UAF, and influence international opinion. Promote narratives of Russian military heroism and inevitable victory. Exploit any perceived shifts in Western support (Trump's comments). RUF will continue to reinforce public narratives of "goodness" and "heroism" within their military and civilian structures. Lavrov's statement about Europe trying to "raise history for war with Russia" clearly signals intent to shape international discourse and portray Russia as a victim or defensive actor. RUF intends to amplify narratives of Ukrainian desertion and forced mobilization to degrade Ukrainian morale and international support. RUF intends to discredit Ukrainian military leadership and portray the dire state of Ukrainian supplies (e.g., "Zaluzhny is begging for expired missiles"). RUF will continue to reinforce narratives of Russian heroism and civilian support for the war, as seen with "Bryansk Field Day". RUF intends to promote its internal counter-intelligence successes. Peskov's statements on unacceptable foreign troop deployment near Russia's borders indicate an intent to project a strong defensive posture and deter further Western military aid or intervention (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF intends to use low willingness of criminals to join the front to portray Ukraine as facing severe manpower issues, thus undermining morale (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). RUF propaganda adapts to highlight perceived lack of enthusiasm among detained criminals to join the front, implying Ukrainian manpower crisis (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). RUF propaganda adapts to counter narratives of US air defense effectiveness, questioning the S-400's performance (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF propaganda adapts to highlight civilian aircraft over Kyiv as a sign of normalisation, possibly undermining the perceived threat of ongoing aerial attacks (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Fighterbomber, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UPDATED: TASS reports UAF planted mines in money, toys, and sweets in Kursk, likely intended to support a narrative of Ukrainian perfidy and targeting civilians. (Source: ТАСС). Peskov's statement that Brussels is pushing Kyiv to fight to the "last Ukrainian" indicates an intent to portray Ukraine as a puppet and prolonging the war unnecessarily. (Source: ТАСС). RUF intends to highlight political statements that align with their narrative, such as Viktor Orban's comments on Hungary's non-involvement. (Source: Colonelcassad). RUF intends to use images from Odesa to show perceived "objective control" by residents of drone strikes, which is a propaganda attempt to legitimize their attacks. (Source: Colonelcassad). RUF intends to use symbolic gestures like the painting from Belgorod to reinforce narratives of resilience and victory. (Source: ТАСС). RUF will continue to portray internal Ukrainian situations, such as civilian interactions at markets, in a way that suggests disarray or hardship, though the specific intent of the "Privoz" market image is unclear. (Source: Два майора). RUF will use information from international sources like NYT to bolster its narrative of strength and resolve, indicating an intent to influence global perception of its standing vis-à-vis the US. (Source: Операция Z). RUF will use civilian-oriented information from Russia, such as tick bites in Moscow region, to project normalcy and deflect from military conflict. (Source: Новости Москвы). RUF will use internal corruption cases to showcase its anti-corruption efforts and reinforce a narrative of strong governance. (Source: ТАСС, ASTRA). RUF will use claims of UAF attempting to steal washing machines as propaganda to dehumanize Ukrainian soldiers and justify their actions. (Source: STERNENKO). RUF propaganda seeks to exploit existing historical grievances to sow discord between Ukraine and its allies, as evidenced by the call for Ukraine to recognize the Volyn massacre. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF intends to use internal Russian social tensions (e.g., ethnic clashes) to divert attention from the conflict or to portray internal challenges as managed. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). The message from Alex Parker Returns (If you have...) likely indicates an intent to recruit volunteers or solicit donations for the military, leveraging patriotic sentiment. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF propaganda will highlight internal social support measures for military personnel and their families to boost morale and commitment. (Source: Colonelcassad). RUF milbloggers will attempt to frame coercive mobilization tactics as legitimate or necessary. (Source: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Courses of Action:
MLCOA: RUF will continue current patterns of attritional ground assaults in Donbas, Kharkiv, Sumy/Kursk border, and Kherson direction. They will attempt to consolidate gains and conduct incremental advances, supported by drones, MRLS, and KAB/KARs. Focus on targeting UAF engineering and military medical facilities, and logistics. Psychological operations and false flag pretexts will intensify. RUF will use propaganda materials to discredit Ukrainian information operations. Efforts to enhance vehicle survivability against drone threats will continue. RUF will continue "fire sweeping" operations. The alleged poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia indicates RUF will pursue unconventional sabotage methods. RUF will leverage claims of foreign mercenary presence in Kharkiv to justify increased targeting. RUF will continue to deploy and highlight logistical robots. RUF will continue targeting UAF unmanned ground systems and use 6 UAVs on Sumy community. RUF will attempt to exploit any C2 disruption within the 155th Marine Brigade caused by the recent liquidation of their command element, either by pushing new leadership rapidly or by pausing/re-prioritizing offensive actions by this specific unit. RUF will continue to target Ukrainian administrative buildings in occupied territories, as evidenced by the strike on Energodar. RUF will continue to focus ground pressure and tactical aviation strikes on key Donbas axes, specifically Pokrovsk, as evidenced by claimed UAF force concentrations. Expect continued efforts to improve tactical communication for ground units, particularly assault detachments, to enhance battlefield coordination. RUF will continue offensive actions aimed at gaining full control of settlements in border regions of Sumy Oblast. RUF will use high-precision strikes (e.g., Kinzhal missiles) against high-value military targets. RUF will exploit internal Ukrainian issues such as conscription and military leadership to sow discord. RUF will continue to reinforce territorial gains in the Kharkiv region, as evidenced by the claimed liberation of Sobolevka. RUF will continue to engage UAF vehicles during rotation attempts, as evidenced by recent UAV engagements (Source: Воин DV). RUF will continue efforts to reinforce claimed control over Zelena Dolyna, DPR, as evidenced by official MoD videos (Source: ТАСС, Басурин о главном). RUF will continue to emphasize statements on unacceptable foreign troop presence near Russian borders to justify defensive posturing (Source: Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad). RUF will continue to conduct anti-sabotage operations against UAF special operations forces. (Source: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition). UPDATED: RUF will likely attempt to seize control of Kamenskoye and advance towards Dzerzhinsk/Konstantinovka to secure new positions. (Source: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Басурин о главном). RUF will continue to use propaganda about UAF mining money, toys, sweets in Kursk. (Source: ТАСС). RUF will continue to use the narrative that Brussels is pushing Kyiv to fight to the "last Ukrainian". (Source: ТАСС). RUF will continue to use civilian events to project normalcy and stability (Source: AV БогомаZ, Игорь Артамонов). RUF will continue to use narratives of internal Western discord (Alex Parker Returns). RUF will continue ground advances in Sumy Oblast, as seen with claimed capture of Bessalovka. (Source: Kotsnews). RUF will likely continue to pursue legal action against alleged corruption in military-related projects, as seen with the Belgorod defensive structures. (Source: ASTRA). RUF will continue to promote and highlight ongoing civilian support and fundraising efforts for military units. (Source: Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). RUF will maintain pressure on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, attempting to advance 10km. (Source: РБК-Україна). RUF will continue to target Ukrainian defense industrial facilities. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ). RUF will continue to exploit historical grievances to create friction between Ukraine and its allies. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF will likely continue to use internal social tensions to deflect from external conflict. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF will use incentives and coercive measures to meet manpower requirements. (Source: Colonelcassad, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Increased Frequency, Volume, and Protracted Complexity of Aerial Strikes on Deep Targets: RUF will maintain and likely increase the frequency, volume, and duration of combined drone and ballistic missile attacks on Ukrainian deep targets, prioritizing Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and now Odesa to saturate and overwhelm air defenses. Expect continued deep strikes on military-industrial targets in Russia, including regional enterprises. Expect further civilian casualties, infrastructure damage, and continued targeting of military-industrial complex sites. Deep-state kinetic special operations targeting high-value Ukrainian security/intelligence personnel are likely to continue. The use of mobile drone launch platforms will complicate detection. Expect continued UAV activity in border regions of Russia. The confirmed strike on Odesa TCC and the alleged sea-launched drones indicate a clear MLCOA to specifically target Ukrainian military and force generation infrastructure in deep rear areas, using diversified attack vectors. Expect RUF to maintain sustained UAV overflights across multiple Ukrainian oblasts (Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad) to stretch UAF air defenses. RUF will continue to hit civilian infrastructure, including medical facilities, to maximize psychological impact. RUF will attempt to counter the narrative of persistent aerial threat over Ukraine by highlighting civilian aircraft over Kyiv (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Fighterbomber, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UPDATED: Expect continued ballistic missile launches towards coastal areas, as seen with Vilkove. (Source: Николаевский Ванёк). RUF will continue to target Ukrainian drones over the Black Sea. (Source: ТАСС). RUF will maintain a high tempo of deep strikes, as evidenced by attacks on 4 defense enterprises in Tula Oblast. (Source: ASTRA). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Aggressive Information Operations & Internal Security Focus: RUF will intensify information operations, leveraging military actions for propaganda and escalating inflammatory disinformation. Claims of UAF desertions or internal discord are likely to increase. RUF will continue internal security operations, including counter-intelligence. Internal propaganda will attempt to manage the narrative around incidents like the VDV cadet killing a commander. TASS will continue to frame Russia as a proponent of "truth and honest analysis of facts" globally. They will actively counter Ukrainian reports of successful breakthroughs into Belgorod Oblast. New attempts to stir diplomatic incidents are likely. TASS will continue to amplify Trump's statements. TASS will also highlight Putin's direct involvement in managing border security issues in Belgorod. RUF will continue to frame their cultural figures on "Myrotvorets" as victims of Ukrainian extremism. TASS will continue to use claims of UAF consciously targeting civilians in Belgorod Oblast. RUF will continue to aggressively leverage successful strikes on UAF TCCs as propaganda points, attempting to demoralize potential Ukrainian recruits and foreign support. Lavrov's public statements, framing Europe as aggressive, suggest an ongoing MLCOA to shape the international narrative and justify RUF actions to a domestic audience. RUF will continue to propagate narratives about large numbers of Ukrainian deserters and forced mobilization to undermine Ukrainian force generation. RUF will attempt to discredit Ukrainian military leadership and portray the dire state of Ukrainian supplies. RUF will continue to highlight their counter-intelligence successes. RUF will continue to use official statements regarding prisoner exchanges and negotiations to project a more reasonable image, while maintaining core demands. RUF will likely expand internal legislative measures to control the information environment further. RUF will continue to use low prisoner willingness to fight as propaganda (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). RUF will leverage Viktor Orbán's statements to sow discord among Western allies (Source: Colonelcassad). RUF will continue to use civilian events to project normalcy and stability (Source: AV БогомаZ). UPDATED: RUF will continue to highlight the evacuation of children from Belgorod to justify defensive measures and portray Ukraine as targeting civilians. (Source: ТАСС). RUF will continue to leverage "Snoop Dogg" related content to project normalcy and cultural engagement. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF propaganda will continue to use narratives of betrayal and subversion within Ukraine. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF will use images of civilian interaction at markets (e.g., Privoz in Odesa) to subtly convey a sense of civilian life under duress or disarray, fitting into a broader narrative of Ukrainian instability. (Source: Два майора). RUF will use news of internal Russian medical issues (e.g., cancer treatments with oak bark) to portray a sense of local self-reliance or alternative approaches, potentially deflecting from resource limitations. (Source: Новости Москвы). RUF will continue to use symbolic gestures like the painting presented to Putin from Belgorod to reinforce narratives of resilience and victory. (Source: ТАСС). RUF will continue to use news of corruption within its Ministry of Defense to project internal cleansing and accountability. (Source: ТАСС). RUF will use international news on Putin's resolve to project strength. (Source: Операция Z). RUF will likely expand its information operations to target and discredit internal dissent within Russia. (Source: ASTRA). RUF will use messaging to project domestic economic stability, such as fuel export discussions. (Source: ТАСС). RUF will continue to promote and publicize civilian support for the military. (Source: Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). RUF propaganda will aim to frame Ukrainian claims of drone strikes as fabricated to undermine UAF credibility. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ). RUF propaganda will continue to exploit historical grievances (e.g., Volyn massacre) to damage Ukraine's international relations. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF will likely continue to leverage internal social tensions (e.g., ethnic clashes) as a propaganda tool. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF will continue to use narratives of internal Russian stability and state efficiency (e.g., boy discharged from hospital in Sheremetyevo). (Source: ТАСС). RUF will continue to highlight its "law and order" efforts (e.g., extradition of accused to Latvia). (Source: ТАСС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Diversified Diplomatic Efforts: Russia will continue to strengthen ties with non-Western countries and exploit Western disunity. Likely to continue using foreign natural disasters for propaganda and testing NATO's resolve through border provocations. Russia will likely try to leverage geopolitical shifts (e.g., Turkey/Kurds) to their advantage, potentially seeking to disrupt existing alliances or divert international attention. Russia will continue to anticipate and react to US foreign policy shifts, particularly those signaled by key political figures (Source: Операция Z). RUF will continue to publicize China's military readiness to reinforce its own geopolitical position. (Source: WarGonzo). UPDATED: Russia will continue to use diplomatic responses (e.g., closing Polish consulate in Kaliningrad) as retaliatory measures. (Source: ТАСС, Операция Z). Russia will continue to emphasize its role in international law enforcement by highlighting extraditions. (Source: ТАСС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Focus on Tank Survivability and Drone/Counter-UAV Tech & ADM Efficiency: RUF will continue efforts to upgrade tank survivability and actively seek solutions for enhancing drone effectiveness and developing new counter-UAV capabilities. They will also explore and promote concepts for cheaper, high-volume air defense systems. UPDATED: RUF will likely continue to invest in and promote drone development and innovation, as indicated by the upcoming "Dronnitsa" meeting. (Source: Филолог в засаде). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
5.2. Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA)
Major Coordinated Offensive from Northern Axis: Leveraging concentrated forces in Belgorod, RUF initiates a full-scale, multi-pronged offensive towards Kharkiv, aiming for deep envelopment and fixation of significant UAF reserves, coupled with a breakthrough attempt in the Donbas. This could be supported by a more significant ground incursion into Sumy Oblast. The commitment of the 83rd AAB to Vovchansk indicates a higher probability of this envelopment attempt. UPDATED: Budanov's statement about RUF intent to advance 10km deep into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast elevates this MDCOA to potentially include multi-vector attacks aimed at deeper territorial penetration beyond current frontlines. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Decisive Breakthrough in Donbas: RUF commits substantial fresh reserves and resources to achieve a rapid, decisive breakthrough on a key Donbas axis, leading to a collapse of UAF defensive lines and significant territorial gains. The "human wave" tactics in Chasiv Yar indicate a clear intent to achieve a breakthrough, increasing the risk. This could be coupled with intensified offensive action on the Pokrovsk axis to prevent UAF reserve redeployment. TASS claim of UAF grouping in Pokrovsk/Dimitrov being in a "fire bag" indicates RUF intent to achieve an encirclement, escalating the risk. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Escalation involving chemical weapon false flag: RUF uses its public claims of UAF chemical weapon use as a pretext for a false flag operation or an actual chemical attack. CONFIDENCE: LOW.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
IMMEDIATE (0-6 hours):
Continue Damage Control: Maintain immediate damage assessment, casualty response, and recovery/repair in Kyiv (28 injured), Chuhuiv, Kharkiv City (9 injured, 3 infants injured), Lipetsk Oblast (1 killed, 1 injured), Zaporizhzhia Raion (1 injured, 1 killed), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Tula Oblast (1 killed, 1 injured), Kursk Oblast (4 injured), Odesa (9 injured), and Donetsk Oblast (7 killed, 9 injured). Respond to civilian fatality in Stepnohirsk community and animal casualties in Odesa.
Air Defense Alert: Monitor for further follow-on attacks or reconnaissance by new RUF UAV groups towards Kyiv Oblast, Zhytomyr, Western Oblasts, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad, and Odesa. UAF drone safety operations in Russian border regions likely to continue. Monitor for KAB launches. Monitor for re-imposition of flight restrictions at Russian airports. Monitor for reconnaissance UAVs in the Black Sea targeting Odesa. Monitor for RUF UAV activity from Belarus towards Ukraine. Prioritize response to any new ballistic missile threat, especially towards Dnipropetrovsk and Vilkove. Maintain high alert for potentially 20 drones over Ukraine.
Intelligence Verification: Verify RUF claims of Zelena Dolyna liberation and Sobolevka liberation. Verify RUF claims. Confirm details of SBU Colonel assassination. Verify claimed maritime attacks in Red Sea. Clarify conflicting reports on Penza TETs fire. Investigate the VDV cadet killing commander report. Conduct BDA on the Kursk agro-holding fire, Tula explosions, Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, Kronstadt UAV production facility, and the Orlov Oblast "regional enterprise". Assess the "tank-monster" claims. Verify the unverified claim of a Hungarian citizen killed during mobilization in Zakarpattia. Verify claims of Mirny and Voskresenka capture. Verify the liquidation of Colonel Sergey Ilyin and Captain 2nd Rank Shipunov. Verify the TASS claim of UAF grouping in Pokrovsk/Dimitrov being in a "fire bag". Verify the defense against "Tsar-tank" in Toretsk direction. Assess the implications of the Kyiv Metro tunnel damage and ex-minister Kubrakov searches. Assess the impact of the liquidation of Major General Gudkov and Colonels Ilyin and Bashkardin on RUF C2, especially for the 155th Marine Brigade. Verify alleged sea-launch of drones for Odesa strike. Continue monitoring traffic accidents in occupied territories for any military implications. Verify RUF claims of controlling Novonykolaivka, Sumy Oblast. Verify TASS claims of UAF defensive collapse on South Donetsk direction. Verify RUF claims of large-scale desertion in UAF. Verify reports of internal Russian military corruption. Verify the context of Alex Parker Returns's "Все плохо" posts. Verify the impact of the lifted migrant worker ban in Nizhny Novgorod. Continue monitoring the water poisoning incident in Dagestan and its potential for internal instability. Verify the implications of Finland's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention on Anti-Personnel Mines for regional security (Source: ASTRA). Verify military relevance of civilian aircraft over Kyiv (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Fighterbomber, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Verify Russian internal reports on low criminal willingness to fight (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Assess the impact of MP Shevchenko's new suspicion on internal stability and public trust (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). **Verify Orsk Mechanical Plant fire impact on RUF artillery shell production. (Source: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ). Verify claimed RUF advances in Dzerzhinsk/Konstantinovka. (Source: Басурин о главном). Assess impact of water outages in Lugansk. (Source: Mash na Donbasse). Verify RUF claims of UAF planting mines in money, toys, sweets in Kursk. (Source: ТАСС). Verify the claims of Bessalovka capture in Sumy Oblast by RUF. (Source: Kotsnews). Monitor the nature and context of civilian interactions in Odesa (e.g., "Privoz" market) for any direct or indirect military implications. (Source: Два майора). Assess the significance of the "Admiral Kuznetsov" being scrapped. (Source: Север.Реалии). Assess the relevance and purpose of Russia's internal campaign against "Revolt-center" in Syktyvkar. (Source: ASTRA). Investigate any military implications of increased tick bites in Moscow region. (Source: Новости Москвы). Assess the impact of domestic fuel export ban. (Source: ТАСС). Investigate the reported liquidation of Captain Vladislav Yakovenko, commander of a sabotage and reconnaissance group from the 140th SSO Center of the AFU. (Source: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition). Analyze any correlation between RUF FPV drone strikes on civilian vehicles and supply routes. (Source: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦). Verify if the Dagestani beating incident (Alex Parker Returns) has broader implications for inter-ethnic relations or stability in Russia. Verify the context and intent of the photo message from Alex Parker Returns (If you have...). Assess the implications of the threat from an interrogator to a serviceman (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Counter-Propaganda: Issue forceful public statements countering RUF chemical weapons claims, false flag pretexts, and narratives about abandoning wounded soldiers. Counter disinformation regarding Putin-Trump relations. Proactively highlight damage to civilian structures and civilian casualties, particularly children. Actively counter RUF narratives celebrating strikes on TCCs or claiming local support for their actions in Odesa. Emphasize civilian casualties, especially infants, and the humanitarian impact of RUF strikes. Use legal information to counter RUF disinformation on mobilization. Highlight UAF internal improvements and social support. Highlight the tribute to Igor Poklad as a demonstration of Ukrainian cultural resilience. Counter RUF narratives on foreign troop deployment near Russian borders (Source: Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad). Counter RUF attempts to portray Ukraine as unreasonable in its demands on allies (Source: Colonelcassad). Proactively highlight administrative streamlining and accountability efforts (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). Counter RUF narratives using civilian events to project normalcy (Source: AV БогомаZ, Игорь Артамонов). UPDATED: Counter RUF claims of UAF mining money, toys, sweets. Counter Peskov's narrative of Brussels pushing Kyiv to fight to "last Ukrainian". Highlight humanitarian impact of RUF attacks and Lviv flooding. Continue to highlight recreational events for children of defenders to boost morale. Actively counter RUF propaganda portraying civilian aircraft over Kyiv as a sign of normalization. (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Fighterbomber, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Counter RUF narratives of strength and resolve against the US. (Source: Операция Z). Counter RUF attempts to use internal anti-corruption measures to deflect from broader issues. (Source: ТАСС, ASTRA). Counter RUF narratives emphasizing internal Russian stability. (Source: Новости Москвы). Counter RUF narratives that attempt to portray civilian support for military as widespread and genuine. (Source: Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). Counter RUF narratives depicting Ukrainian soldiers as looters. (Source: STERNENKO). Counter RUF attempts to exploit historical grievances to undermine international support for Ukraine. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). Emphasize ongoing diplomatic engagement with the US at various levels. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Monitor RUF Tactical Shifts: Observe RUF border actions and any specific tactical shifts on the Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad, Novoseklovske, Kupyansk/Svatove, and Krasnolimansky directions. Monitor RUF signalmen activities for indicators of enhanced tactical C2 or new communication techniques. Monitor for new offensive ground actions following the claimed liberation of Zelena Dolyna and Sobolevka. Monitor RUF UAV operators for new tactical adaptations, particularly in engaging UAF vehicles on rotation attempts (Source: Воин DV). UPDATED: Monitor RUF attempts to consolidate control over Kamenskoye and Dzerzhinsk. Monitor for any follow-up actions by RUF in Sumy Oblast after claimed Bessalovka capture. (Source: Kotsnews). Monitor RUF activities in the Black Sea following the claimed drone shootdown. (Source: ТАСС). Monitor for any tactical implications of China's amphibious landing drills as reported by RUF sources. (Source: WarGonzo). Monitor for any changes in RUF's use of FPV drones on critical routes. (Source: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦). Monitor for any RUF operational shifts towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast following Budanov's statement. (Source: РБК-Україна). Monitor for further RUF targeting of defense industrial facilities in Tula Oblast. (Source: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Weather Response: Initiate immediate response to severe weather warnings in Bryansk Oblast and ongoing flooding in Lviv Oblast.
SHORT-TERM (6-24 hours):
Air Defense Allocation: Critical decision points for UAF on strategic allocation of air defense assets and munitions. Prioritize allocation and delivery of newly committed Patriot systems. Implement new Kyiv drone interception system.
Frontline Defense: Expect sustained RUF ground pressure in Kupyansk, Donbas, and intensified envelopment attempts in Kharkiv. Continue UAF cross-border drone activity. Commanders on Kramatorsk axis need to action contingency plans for troop rotation.
System Restoration: Address "Rerezerv+" app outage.
Financial Aid Integration: Assess immediate impact of EU financial tranches and other aid.
Force Protection: Prioritize immediate delivery and deployment of anti-thermal cloaks.
Counter-UAS/EW Deployment: Rapid deployment of additional counter-UAS and EW assets to the Chasiv Yar sector.
Internal Security: Monitor and respond to internal public safety incidents, and investigate the alleged poisoning plot. Continue to investigate corruption cases within the UAF supply chain (e.g., clothing case). Monitor and respond to the ongoing internal investigation regarding the People's Deputy. Continue humanitarian evacuation efforts for children from at-risk regions (Source: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)).
Diplomatic Engagement: Support the visit of Keith Kellogg to Kyiv, ensuring security and maximizing diplomatic outcomes. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, STERNENKO). Continue to coordinate with US counterparts for future high-level meetings. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
MID-TERM (24-72 hours):
Aid Effectiveness: Monitor the impact of new US and EU aid deliveries on battlefield dynamics. Assess the long-term impact of French SCALP missile production resumption.
RUF Adaptations: Continue to assess RUF adaptations to UAF drone capabilities and their efforts to enhance their own drone and counter-UAV technologies.
Internal RUF Dynamics: Monitor internal Russian political and social dynamics for long-term force generation implications, including the impact of alleged internal corruption and social tensions.
Strategic Assessment: Assess the long-term impact of heightened air defense expenditure and resource constraints, and the SBU Colonel assassination on Ukrainian internal security. UPDATED: Assess the long-term implications of Budanov's statement regarding RUF intent to push 10km deep into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
RUF Missile/UAV Production and Inventory:
GAP: Full assessment of current ballistic missile and Shahed drone inventory and production rates. Are current integrated multi-wave, prolonged attacks a new standard? Capabilities and likely vectors of new UAV groups targeting Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Western Oblasts, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Lipetsk, Tula, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, and Odesa. What is the specific impact of the UAF drone strike on Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, Beriev Aviation Plant, Tula Instrument Design Bureau, Kronstadt UAV production facility, and the Orlov Oblast "regional enterprise"? What are the capabilities and launch methods for alleged sea-launched drones used in the Odesa attack? What is the current operational status and production capacity of the Orsk Mechanical Plant post-fire? What is the specific operational status and production capacity of the "Typhoon" Instrument-Making Plant in Tula?
CR: Prioritize SIGINT, IMINT, and HUMINT on RUF defense industrial base. Analyze flight patterns and track new UAV groups for launch locations/patterns. Conduct BDA for precise damage assessment and production impact. Investigate alleged sea-launch platforms and methods. Prioritize ISR on the Orsk Mechanical Plant and "Typhoon" Instrument-Making Plant to assess damage extent and operational impact. Monitor further developments from the "Dronnitsa" meeting for indicators of future RUF drone capabilities.
UAF Air Defense Munitions Status Post-Kyiv Integrated, Prolonged Attack:
GAP: Immediate and granular assessment of remaining air defense interceptor stockpiles, especially for ballistic missile defense. What are the specific delivery timelines for new Patriot systems? How will the newly launched Kyiv drone interception system integrate and impact overall ADM effectiveness and consumption?
CR: Immediate HUMINT from air defense units and logistics command. Prioritize SIGINT on UAF air defense engagements. Monitor the initial effectiveness and challenges of the new Kyiv drone interception system.
Verification and BDA of RUF Claimed Strikes, Infiltrations, and Desertions:
GAP: Independent verification of RUF claims regarding UAF ammunition depot destruction, VDV infiltration, UAF desertion (including abandoning wounded, or large-scale desertion figures), specific enemy advances (Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Karlo Marksa, Zelenyi Hai, Borovska Andriivka, Zelena Dolyna, Mirny and Voskresenka, Novonykolaivka in Sumy, Sobolevka in Kharkiv, Kamenskoye, Dzerzhinsk, Bessalovka in Sumy), precise impact of claimed Iskander strikes, claimed destruction of UAF armored vehicles, alleged UAF chemical weapon use, and destruction of Starlink equipment and D-20 howitzer. Confirmation of the extent and impact of the SBU Colonel assassination. Verification of the VDV cadet killing a commander report. Confirmation of the specific impact of the Odesa TCC strike and any civilian casualties/collateral damage related to it, versus RUF claims of "precision" and local gratitude. Verification of the implications of Finland's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention on Anti-Personnel Mines for regional security (Source: ASTRA). Verify military relevance of civilian aircraft over Kyiv (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Fighterbomber, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Verify Russian internal reports on low criminal willingness to fight and the impact on force generation (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Assess the impact of MP Shevchenko's new suspicion on internal stability and public trust (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). Verify RUF claims of UAF planting mines in money, toys, and sweets in Kursk. Verify the claims regarding the liquidation of Captain Vladislav Yakovenko, commander of a sabotage and reconnaissance group from the 140th SSO Center of the AFU. (Source: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition). Assess the impact of RUF FPV drone strikes on civilian vehicles and key supply routes near Kramatorsk-Dobropillia. (Source: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦). Verify the specific impact of the drone strike shown by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС near Chasiv Yar. (Source: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). Assess the veracity and implications of the Alex Parker Returns photo message (If you have...) for RUF force generation. Assess any broader implications of the reported interrogation and threat to a serviceman (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
CR: Prioritize IMINT (satellite, drone reconnaissance) and HUMINT from frontline units for rapid BDA and verification. SIGINT for RUF C2 communications. Cross-reference RUF claims with UAF internal reporting and OSINT. Forensic investigation into the SBU Colonel assassination.
Impact of RUF Electronic Conscription Registry & Demobilization:
GAP: Full assessment of the effectiveness of Russia's electronic conscription registry. What is the actual compliance rate and the impact on Russian society and economy? What are the factors contributing to the extremely low demobilization rate? What are the implications of reported fraud against "SVO" fighters and the impact of public pressure on mobilization issues? What is the impact of the new one-time payments for SVO participants in Crimea on recruitment and retention? What are the broader implications of alleged threats by interrogators to servicemen?
CR: HUMINT from within Russia, OSINT monitoring of Russian social media and official statements, economic analysis of labor market changes. Investigate fraud cases affecting military personnel. Monitor reports of new incentives for military service.
UAF Personnel Management System ("Rerezerv+" App) Status:
GAP: Root cause of the "Rerezerv+" app outage, its duration, and the extent of operational impact on UAF personnel management and mobilization processes. What is the overall impact of the "Армія+" survey on military efficiency and morale?
CR: TECHINT analysis of the app's infrastructure. HUMINT from UAF personnel and administrative units.
Full Impact of Western Military Aid Deliveries:
GAP: Granular tracking of quantities, delivery timelines, and integration status for US, UK, German, Norwegian, Finnish, and Dutch aid. Assessment of the integration process and operational impact of the newly committed Patriot systems. What are the specific implications of Trump's statements and potential US policy shifts? What is the projected timeline for initial deliveries and operational deployment of newly resumed French SCALP missiles to Ukraine, and what is the projected rate of production? What is the impact of the proposed EU floating price cap on Russian oil? What is the full scope and impact of US commitment to "American drone dominance" on future aid and technological transfer? What are the specific conditions or caveats to UK's readiness to send troops to Ukraine for a potential ceasefire?
CR: HUMINT from UAF logistics and frontline units. OSINT on aid announcements and delivery reports. IMINT for visual confirmation of new equipment deployment. Monitor international media and diplomatic channels for further details on US policy shifts and aid commitments, including the specifics of the "Coalition of the Willing." Monitor official statements regarding future Ukraine-US meetings.
RUF Internal Stability and Resource Diversion:
GAP: Assess whether ongoing internal Russian issues (forest fires, oil spills, banking failures, heatwave, corruption purges, crime within military ranks, legal challenges, ethnic tensions, suppression of dissent, Steam platform outages, rejection of Azerbaijani imports, local political/cultural controversies, and alleged misuse of military assets by high-ranking officials) are diverting significant resources from military operations. What is the full C2 impact of the recent high-level RUF casualties in Kursk and the liquidation of Captain 2nd Rank Shipunov on the affected units, particularly the 155th Marine Brigade? What is the impact of the FSB operation in Bryansk on UAF drone capabilities and Russian internal security? What are the implications of the humanitarian issue involving a Russian family in Sweden facing deportation to Tajikistan? What are the broader geopolitical implications of Turkey's alleged victory over the PKK for Russian influence in the Middle East and Caucasus? What is the impact of the lifted migrant worker ban in Nizhny Novgorod? What is the scope and duration of water outages in occupied Lugansk and their impact on local population and RUF operations? What are the broader implications of corruption cases within the Russian MoD (e.g., Timofeev prosecution, Belgorod defense structures) for RUF logistics and public trust? What is the current operational status of the "Admiral Kuznetsov" and its final disposition? What is the impact of a potential ban on gasoline exports on domestic energy supply and military logistics? (Source: ТАСС). What is the strategic significance of China's amphibious landing drills as reported by RUF media? (Source: WarGonzo). What is the internal impact of the "Revolt-center" incident in Syktyvkar on domestic dissent? (Source: ASTRA). What are the implications of the declining ability of Russian citizens to purchase medicines? What is the nature and scale of internal ethnic tensions within Russia? What are the implications of the closure of the Polish Consulate in Kaliningrad? What are the details of the extradition of the accused to Latvia?
CR: OSINT on Russian domestic media, economic indicators, and public sentiment. HUMINT from sources within Russia on resource allocation shifts. HUMINT and SIGINT on affected RUF units to gauge C2 disruption and subsequent operational changes. Monitor legal proceedings related to corruption in the MoD. Prioritize IMINT on "Admiral Kuznetsov." Monitor any economic impacts of fuel export bans. Assess geopolitical implications of Chinese military activities. Monitor internal dissent and related actions. Monitor reports on social and health issues.
Impact of Extreme Weather on Ukrainian Infrastructure & Operations:
GAP: Detailed assessment of the damage and humanitarian impact of severe flooding in Lviv and Lutsk Oblasts. What is the current capacity of emergency services and how will it affect resource allocation?
CR: IMINT, OSINT (local news, social media), and HUMINT from affected regions and emergency services. Assess impact on key transportation routes and critical infrastructure.
