Sitrep 2025-07-11 12:05:10

SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 111200Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Kyiv Oblast: RUF concluded a protracted, multi-vector aerial attack lasting 10-11 hours. Casualties: two (2) killed, twenty-eight (28) injured. Significant damage to civilian infrastructure, including a Center for Primary Medical Care ambulatorium and residential buildings. Vatican Embassy also reported damage. Firefighting operations concluded. Widespread smoke and burning smell persist. Public transport routes temporarily changed but restored. New RUF UAV groups moving towards Kyiv Oblast from Chernihiv, and some reported towards Zhytomyr region. UAF Air Force reports 178 targets shot down out of 397 drones and 18 missiles launched. RUF sources claim strikes on military-industrial complex enterprises and military airfield infrastructure in Kyiv. KMA has launched a full-fledged system for intercepting enemy drones flying into Kyiv. Post-attack, rescue workers and firefighters are actively clearing debris. UAF Air Force reports an unidentified UAV in Chernihiv airspace. UPDATED: Unidentified passenger aircraft sighted over Kyiv for the first time since the full-scale invasion; identified as a cargo plane. (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Fighterbomber, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Kryvyi Rih): UAF Air Command neutralized five (5) RUF UAVs. A 67-year-old man was killed in Pokrovske Hromada, Nikopol Raion, due to RUF UAVs and artillery. Aggressor struck Pokrovska Hromada, Synelnykivskyi Raion, with UAVs, damaging an agricultural enterprise and causing a fire. UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons in Synelnykivskyi Raion. UAF Air Force reports a reconnaissance UAV in Kryvyi Rih area, potentially acting as a spotter for RUF attack assets, and UAF means are engaged to shoot it down. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target (likely ballistic missile) moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports a minus on a drone. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (General): RUF continues to employ KABs. RUF "Center" group claims raising flags in "liberated Dachne." ASTRA reports nine (9) people killed and ten (10) injured in Russian attacks on July 9. DeepState reports approx. 40 FPV drone strikes on Dobropillia by UAF. RUF sources claim ongoing battles near Pokrovsk and destruction of UAF positions, with new claims of "practically liberated Karlo Marksa" near Chasiv Yar. TASS claims RF Armed Forces destroyed elite UAF units with a FAB strike in Tolstoi. RUF sources report fires in Makeevka. MoD Russia claims foiling enemy UAV operations in Krasnoarmeysk direction. STERNENKO shares video of another RUF assault resulting in "negative advance" for enemy forces. Mash na Donbasse reports a civilian traffic accident in Yenakiieve. UAF Air Force reports launches of KABs by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Pokrovsk. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports TOS-1A Solntsepyok unit destroyed an enemy fortified position for UAV launches in Krasnoarmeysk direction (Pokrovsk). ASTRA reports seven people killed and nine injured in Donetsk Oblast on July 10, according to the National Police. UPDATED: DeepState reports on RUF FPV drone strikes on the Kramatorsk-Dobropillia road, showing damaged civilian vehicles. (Source: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Siversk): TASS claims RUF forces are less than 1 km from Siversk suburb. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Serebryanka, Verkhnokamyanske, and Vyyimka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka, Ivano-Daryivka, Verkhnokamyanske and towards Vyyimka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar): RUF sources claim continued attacks and control over the "main part" of Chasiv Yar. UAF General Staff reports repelling multiple assaults near Bila Hora, Chasiv Yar, and Predtechyne. Enemy forces have intensified ground assaults on the eastern suburbs of Chasiv Yar, focusing on the "Canal" microdistrict and the village of Ivanivske, employing "human wave" tactics. The risk of a tactical breakthrough in this sector is HIGH. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of 68th Separate Jaeger Brigade clearing fortified positions and basements used by RUF in destroyed buildings. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Chasiv Yar and towards Predtechyne, Stupochky and Bila Hora. Colonelcassad shares video of Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS RF) at work. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a Russian armored vehicle destroyed along with infantry near Chasiv Yar during a repelled assault, confirming effective UAF defense. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kharkiv Oblast (General): Governor Syniehubov reports 11 settlements struck by enemy fire. RUF tactical aviation continues KAB/KAR launches. UAF Air Force reports active RUF reconnaissance UAVs. Enemy forces attempting to consolidate tactical gains near Lyptsi and Vovchansk. Friendly forces inflicting heavy casualties on attacking formations; SIGINT corroborates degraded morale and combat effectiveness in forward Russian units. Enemy has committed operational reserves, including elements of the 83rd Air Assault Brigade moving towards Vovchansk. TASS reports more than 10 major UAF attacks repelled near Bohuslavka. Oleg Syniehubov reports enemy strikes on Kharkiv City and 10 settlements over the past day. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Starytsa, Vovchansk, Zapadne and Zelene in South Slobozhansky direction. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports on the situation in the operational zone of OTU "Kharkiv" as of the morning of July 11, 2025. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, discussed operational situation in Kharkiv Oblast, showing damaged infrastructure and reporting on unsuccessful Russian assaults (Source: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА). UPDATED: UAF Air Force reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkiv City): Nine (9) injured in Kharkiv after night attack. Mayor of Kharkiv reports strikes on the city center, residential areas, and a working medical facility. RUF drone hit residential area in Kharkiv City. RUF Shahed hit a three-story building in Saltivskyi district, causing damage and a small fire. Maternity hospital affected. ASTRA reports nine people injured in night attacks on Saltivskyi district, including mothers and newborn children from a maternity hospital. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports three infants were injured during Russian drone strikes on Kharkiv. Zelenskiy / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА share photos of aftermath, focusing on damage to civilian infrastructure, including a maternity hospital, and casualties. РБК-Україна reports Zelensky confirmed the attack on Odesa and the city council reported eight injured. РБК-Україна reports Zelensky reacted to the damage to the maternity hospital in Kharkiv, stating "Russia targets life." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Western Ukraine (Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Lutsk, Rivne, Chernivtsi, Ternopil, Cherkasy Oblasts): UAF Air Force reports multiple RUF UAVs heading towards Chortkiv (Ternopil Oblast), Lutsk (Volyn Oblast), Lviv, Burshtyn, Busk, Chernivtsi, and Kaniv (Cherkasy Oblast). Lutsk City and Lviv experienced severe flooding due to heavy rains, impacting movement. RBC-Ukraine reports 230 houses flooded in Lviv Oblast due to a year's worth of rain in one day. UPDATED: Video shows flood from bird's eye view. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Penza Oblast, Russian Federation: A UAF drone was reportedly shot down. Initial reports of significant fire at a power substation (TETs) were confirmed by Operatyvnyi ZSU video, but the governor now claims the fire was not related to a drone attack. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Perm Krai, Russian Federation: ASTRA reports a strong fire in IK-1 in Solikamsk (prison colony). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Smolensk Oblast, Russian Federation: Three (3) UAF UAVs reportedly shot down by air defense forces. TASS reports Starovoyta was buried in Smolensk cemetery. The context implies a casualty, possibly military, but details are not provided. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sumy Oblast: RUF tactical aviation active with KABs. RUF claims a UAF battalion headquarters (150th Brigade) deserted in Sumy direction (unverified). RUF claims targeting a UAF medical facility in Sumy Oblast. UAF General Staff reports repelling 14 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky directions. RUF strike UAVs are now reported in the suburbs of Sumy. Acting Mayor of Sumy reports RUF drone attacks on Sumy suburbs, with no casualties. Russian forces launched 6 UAVs on Sumy community this morning. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Sumy Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Andriyivka, Kindrashivka, Volodymyrivka, Nova Nich, Sadky. UAF General Staff reports repelling 21 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky directions. Kadyrov_95 shares video claiming "Akhmat-Chechnya" regiment established full control over Novonykolaivka, Sumy Oblast. Kotsnews released video claiming to show capture of Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast, indicating direct RUF ground action in the region. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Two (2) individuals injured in an enemy attack on Vasylivskyi district. RUF reconnaissance UAV detected and engaged. UAF successfully destroyed numerous RUF high-value equipment (2S3 Akatsiya, 2S7 Pion, BM-27 Uragan, Zhitel EW system). A 48-year-old man was injured in a RUF attack on Zaporizhzhia Raion. "Воин DV" claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade annihilated UAF armored personnel carrier (BTR) in Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk direction. UPDATED: Zaporizhzhia OVA issues an alert (🚨УВАГА🚨). UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons and strike UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Zaliznychne, Bilohirya, Novoandriyivka, Plavni. Zaporizhzhia OVA reports a 71-year-old woman was killed as a result of an enemy attack on Polohivskyi Raion. ТАСС reports UAF attacked Energodar administration building with a loitering munition. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photos of aftermath of attacks, similar to Kharkiv reports by Syniehubov and Zelenskiy. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also shared photo messages about compensation for rental housing for Defenders, indicating internal support measures. 58-year-old man killed in Stepnohirsk community due to enemy shelling. Air raid siren canceled (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Threat of RUF strike UAVs reported. UAF Southern Defense Forces continue strikes on RUF locations. RUF source claims an Iskander strike on a UAF 35th Marine Brigade temporary deployment point (PVD) in Barativka. New groups of RUF strike UAVs are moving through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Balovne, Mykolaiv Oblast, under UAV attack; additional 5 Shahed UAVs reported heading towards Balovne. RUF UAVs currently course for Ochakiv. UAF reports a UAV in the suburbs of Mykolaiv, and a fire on the outskirts of the city. Ukrainian forces claim all incoming "mopeds" (UAVs) in Mykolaiv area have been neutralized. RUF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes concentrated on Mykolaiv overnight. Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons held a meeting in Voznesensk. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports threat of aviation weapons in Mykolaiv Oblast. UPDATED: Ballistic missile launched from Crimea towards Vilkove. (Source: Николаевский Ванёк). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Chernihiv Oblast: RUF reconnaissance UAV detected and engaged. A new group of RUF UAVs detected in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south towards Kyiv Oblast and Zhytomyr region. A group of RUF UAVs from Sumy Oblast is moving through Terny and Krolevets towards Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports groups of RUF strike UAVs in Mena, Olishivka, and Oster districts of Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports an unidentified UAV in Chernihiv airspace, indicating immediate threat. UAF Air Force reports a strike UAV past Chernihiv, course for Mykhailo-Kotsiubynske. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Federation (General): MoD Russia claims 14 UAF fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Russian regions. New batch of Su-34 fighter-bombers transferred to RUF. FSB claims detention of two UAF military intelligence agents in Melitopol and one in Crimea. Colonel SBU Voronich Ivan Ivanovych allegedly assassinated in Kyiv. Russia's electronic registry for conscription notices is fully operational. Temporary flight restrictions at Moscow airports due to drone activity. MoD Russia claims 26 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Russian regions in three hours. Colonelcassad reports on operational statements from RUF troop groupings. RUF is reportedly using RAM pickup trucks for Geran (Shahed) drone launches. MoD Russia reports 155 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, including 11 over Moscow region. Steam platform experiencing outages for users in Russia. TASS reports Trump stated NATO allies will pay for US weapons for Ukraine and will make an important statement on Russia on July 14. ASTRA reports that Pukovo Airport has temporarily suspended operations. "Операция Z" reports a massive enemy attack on Moscow and Russian regions. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims 155 enemy UAVs were destroyed by Russian PVO overnight. WarGonzo shares a "Frontline summary." Kotsnews shares video of an award ceremony for "Assault Troopers." Север.Реалии confirms 155 UAVs shot down over Russia, two people killed. Lavrov declined to comment on Rubio's statements. TASS reports FSB detained two residents of Bryansk Oblast for collecting data on MOD facilities and preparing attacks, also receiving explosives via UAV. TASS reports Pulkovo Airport resumed operations. Военкор Котенок reports 155 UAVs shot down over Russian territory overnight, including 1 over Penza, 1 over Tula, 1 over Orel, 19 over Bryansk, 1 over Rostov, 1 over Kaluga, 11 over Moscow, 1 over Voronezh, 1 over Kursk, 1 over Lipetsk, and 1 over Ryazan. This confirms widespread UAF drone activity into Russian territory. MoD Russia reports military signalmen of the 44th Army Corps (Sever Group of Forces) are conducting drills to deploy secure means of communication with assault detachments. This includes training on the R-187-P1 'Azart' radio station. TASS reports Lavrov stated Europe forgot lessons of history and tries to raise it for war with Russia. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports the number of deserters in the Ukrainian army has exceeded 230,000, with Kyiv estimating half a million, and discusses forced mobilization in Ukraine mentioned in Europe (RUF propaganda). ТАСС reports the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Russian troops conducted 6 group strikes with high-precision weapons, including Kinzhal missiles, against military targets in Ukraine over the past week. Alex Parker Returns shares a video clip, with captions criticizing the private use of military aircraft by a high-ranking Russian official's "mistress," suggesting internal corruption and misuse of military assets. TASS reports State Duma Committee approved draft law strengthening responsibility for foreign agents. Peskov states that the possible deployment of foreign military contingents in Ukraine near Russian borders is unacceptable for Moscow. (Source: Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad). UPDATED: Fire reported at Orsk Mechanical Plant, which produces artillery shells. (Source: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ). TASS reports that a prosecutor is seeking a 10-year sentence for former head of GABTU Ministry of Defense's utilization service, Timofeev, for large-scale bribery, indicating ongoing corruption within the MOD. (Source: ТАСС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Belgorod Oblast, Russian Federation (Shebekino): ASTRA reports one person killed and one injured in a UAF shelling incident in Shebekino. RUF claims the father of an "Azov" fighter was killed in Belgorod shelling. TASS reports Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov stating UAF attempts to breakthrough into Belgorod Oblast are "successfully repelled." TASS reports 41,000 apartments and 14,000 damaged vehicles restored. Restoration in Repyakhovka and Vyazovoye cannot begin due to proximity to the border. More than 400 social facilities damaged. Putin receiving operational reports on Belgorod, frequently calls Gladkov. Gladkov states UAF consciously targets children, adults, and elderly. TASS reports a resident of Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, died due to a UAF ammunition strike. ASTRA also confirms one person killed. Операция Z shares photo messages claiming "enemy attacks Belgorod region, killing civilians," including images of damage. UPDATED: Gladkov reports to Putin that 70,000 children were evacuated from Belgorod Oblast in summer/autumn 2024. (Source: ТАСС). TASS reports Gladkov presented Putin with a painting on a fragment of an air defense missile cover, depicting a girl with a dog and the inscription "Belgorod does not surrender," symbolizing resilience. (Source: ТАСС). ASTRA reports Prosecutor General's Office seeks nearly 1 billion rubles from organizers of defensive structures on Belgorod border with Ukraine due to alleged financial irregularities. (Source: ASTRA). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the Prosecutor General's Office is seeking almost 1 billion rubles from the organizers of the construction of fortifications on the border of Belgorod Oblast with Ukraine. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Rostov Oblast, Russian Federation: Forest fire increased to 324 ha. Mayor of Taganrog reports drone debris fell on the Beriev Aviation Plant. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Irkutsk, Russian Federation: Oil contamination detected on the Angara River. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Dagestan, Russian Federation: Water poisoning incident, 300 affected, 90+ hospitalized. TASS reports number of poisoned in Dagestan reached 372, 357 are children, 97 remain hospitalized. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Bryansk Oblast, Russian Federation: Forecasted severe thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds. 5 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs and an additional 14 jet-powered UAVs destroyed. 19 enemy fixed-wing UAVs detected and destroyed overnight. MoD Russia reports 155 UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, including 19 over Bryansk Oblast. TASS reports FSB detained two residents for collecting data on MOD facilities and preparing attacks, also receiving explosives via UAV. "Два майора" reports FSB conducted an operation in Bryansk Oblast, apprehending an individual and seizing disassembled drones, propellers, batteries, remote controls, laptops, and a handgun with a silencer. AV БогомаZ reports four additional UAVs of aircraft type were detected and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by MoD RF Air Defense units. AV БогомаZ reports severe weather warnings for Bryansk Oblast on July 12, including thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds. Ceremonial welcome at an agricultural festival or event in Russia ("Bryansk Field Day") (Source: AV БогомаZ). This is a civilian event, no military significance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Black Sea/Azov Sea: No RUF Kalibr carriers detected in Black or Azov Seas. One RUF warship in Mediterranean. US RQ-4B Global Hawk UAV (FORTE10) active over western Black Sea. New reporting indicates successful maritime attacks by Houthi movement on "MAGIC SEAS" and "ETERNITY C" vessels in the Red Sea. UAF Air Force reports a reconnaissance UAV in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast, with means engaged to shoot it down. UAF Air Force reports group of strike UAVs near Odesa in Black Sea. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports 7 drones from the sea towards Odesa. RBC-Ukraine and STERNENKO confirm drone attack on Odesa, with explosions reported. "Два майора" reports 6 hits in Odesa. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports an impact on a TCC (Territorial Recruitment Center) in Odesa. RUF sources (Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad) confirm strike on Odesa TCC. ASTRA reports aftermath of drone attack on Odesa with visible damage to a car service building. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a RUF drone over Odesa beach (Arcadia). Военкор Котенок shares photos confirming "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on the Odesa Oblast TCC on Zankovetskaya Street. "Два майора" and "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" also confirm the strike on Odesa TCC. Colonelcassad shares video claiming the attack on Odesa TCC originated from the sea. Kotsnews and WarGonzo also confirm RUF strike on Odesa TCC. Операция Z and Alex Parker Returns share photo and video messages of explosions/strikes on Odesa TCC, with Alex Parker Returns stating "Прилет одной из Геранек по областному ТЦК в Одессе. Быть добру!" RBC-Ukraine and Оперативний ЗСУ report 8 injured in Odesa night attack. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video with a caption implying the destruction of a TCC in Odesa, further supporting the confirmed strike. Video captures significant explosion with large plume of dark smoke near Odesa, implied to be TCC strike (Source: Военкор Котенок). Colonelcassad posted a video of what they claim are Odesa residents conducting "objective control" of Geran drone strikes, with footage of an explosion. UPDATED: TASS reports Russian air defense shot down a Ukrainian drone over the Black Sea. (Source: ТАСС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Konstantinovka - Yablonovka): RUF sources report operational movements and "gathering for assault troops." Video shows individuals working on a homemade UGV. RUF claims "Paladins" are burning near Konstantinovka (likely FPV drone strike). New image shows tactical map for Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad reports FPV drone operators of the 3rd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade liquidated UAF positions and PVDs near Yablonovka. UPDATED: RUF claims new positions in Dzerzhinsk and its vicinity, advancing towards Konstantinovka. (Source: Басурин о главном). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Velikaya Novoselka - Voskresenka): RUF sources report operational movements. "Воин DV" shows projectile impact, claiming "Voskresenka area." UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday in Novopavlivka direction. RUF "Воин DV" reports UAV operators from the 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade engaged a UAF pickup truck during a rotation attempt in the Yanvarskyi area. "Операция Z" claims Russian army occupied most of Mirny and reached Voskresenka. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Zaporizhzhya, Tolstoy, Piddubne, Myrne, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole and Zelene Pole in Novopavlivka direction. Video shows UAV operators from 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade engaging a vehicle with personnel near Yanvarskyi, west of Voskresenka (Source: Воин DV). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Lyman Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Novyy Myr, Ridkodub, Serednye, Karpivka, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Hrekivka, Kolodyazi, and towards Serebryanka. RUF tactical maps for Krasnolimansky Direction and Grigorievka. "Сливочный каприз" shows a map and drone footage related to Krasny Liman - Zelena Dolyna. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Novoyehorivka, Novyy Myr, Karpivka, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodyazi, Torske and towards Serebryanka and Hryhorivka. ТАСС and Colonelcassad reports that Russian forces liberated Zelena Dolyna in DPR. Kotsnews reports Russian army liberated Zelena Dolyna. Video from Russian MoD shows drone footage of an artillery strike near Zelena Dolyna, DPR, with a Russian flag being placed on a monument. (Source: ТАСС, Басурин о главном, Операция Z, MoD Russia, «Зона СВО»). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Popiv Yar, Poltavka, Novotoretske, Myrnohrad, Novoekonomichne, Myrne, Horikhove, Myrolubivka, Mykolayivka, Promin, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, Novoserhiyivka, Yalta, Oleksiyivka and towards Shakhove, Novopidhor, Pokrovsk, Razine, Rodynske. RUF video shows combat near Pokrovsk. Enemy forces have increased the tempo of probing attacks and localized assaults, assessed as a supporting effort. New image depicts "Pokrovsko-Mirnohradskoye direction" map. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports that in the area of responsibility of the "Spartan" brigade, Russians do not abandon attempts to advance. TASS claims the UAF grouping in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Dimitrov is effectively in a "fire bag". General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Popiv Yar, Myrne, Razine, Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Shevchenko, Zvirove, Udachne, Novoserhiyivka, Muravka, Horikhove and Oleksiyivka. TASS reports UAF has concentrated most combat-ready forces, including "Birds of Hungary" and "Wild Hornets" strike group, on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) section of the front. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk Direction): UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Dyliyivka, Scherbynivka, Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, and towards Pleschiyivka. RUF tactical aviation launched KABs. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled a RUF assault involving a "Tsar-tank." General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Dyliyivka, Toretsk, Katerynivka, Yablunivka and Rusyn Yar. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kherson Oblast: UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Prydniprovske and Bilohrudyy island. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Odradokamyanka. RUF claims Iskander-M strike on a UAF PVD in Chervone by 38th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Lvove. UAF General Staff reports repelling 11 Russian army assaults. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lipetsk Oblast, Russian Federation: Governor Igor Artamonov introduced and lifted an air danger regime. RUF reports a UAF drone fell on a farm in Khlevensky district, Lipetsk Oblast, causing a fire. One person confirmed killed, one injured. Игорь Артамонов, Governor of Lipetsk Oblast, announced a "red level" UAV threat for Lipetsk City and Lipetsk Municipal District. Igor Artamonov reports red level UAV threat called off. UPDATED: Igor Artamonov posts on "Pride of Lipetsk Land" program. (Source: Игорь Артамонов). Igor Artamonov reports the lifting of the "yellow level" of drone threat. (Source: Игорь Артамонов). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lithuania: A Russian "Gerbera" (Shahed) drone fell in Lithuania. RBC-Ukraine confirms an unknown drone from Belarus forced Lithuanian leadership into shelters. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Khakassia, Russian Federation: A convicted "Wagner" mercenary is suspected of murdering the chief doctor of a children's hospital. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kursk Oblast, Russian Federation: MoD Russia shows captured UAF munitions. Tactical map for Kursk Oblast released by RUF. ASTRA reports a man killed in Kursk due to a shot down UAV. TASS reports a 73-year-old man was killed in Kursk due to a Ukrainian UAV attack. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports burning production facilities of a major agro-holding after a UAV attack. ASTRA reports four people injured in a Ukrainian drone strike in Kursk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the liquidation of two additional RUF Colonels (Sergey Ilyin, Commander of 155th Marine Brigade; Leonid Bashkardin, Chief of Staff of the Brigade) along with Major General Mikhail Gudkov and Colonel Nariman Shikhaliev from a missile strike on a command post in Korenevo, Kursk Oblast. Photo evidence indicates memorial plaques. UAF General Staff reports repelling 21 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky directions. Военкор Котенок and Alex Parker Returns confirms the burial of Sergey Ilyin, commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, who died on July 2 during a missile strike on a meeting place. This further corroborates the high-value UAF strike. Drone footage shows what appears to be an attack on a ground target in a forested area in Kursk Oblast, with explosions and smoke, implying ongoing military engagement (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). UPDATED: TASS reports UAF planted mines in money, toys, and sweets in Kursk Oblast. (Source: ТАСС). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the liquidation of the commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, Sergey Ilyin, in Kursk Oblast during a strike. (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Moscow, Russian Federation: A UAF drone was shot down over Moscow. Temporary flight restrictions at Domodedovo, Vnukovo, Zhukovsky, and Kaluga airports. Multiple UAF drones attempting to penetrate Moscow airspace. MoD Russia reports 11 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Moscow region overnight. Flight restrictions at Zhukovsky airport lifted. "Операция Z" reports a massive enemy attack on Moscow. Новости Москвы reports forecasted peak heat of +36°C today. ASTRA reports Moscow has implemented enhanced security measures for law enforcement agencies in case of drone attacks from Russian territory, citing a source. Moscow weather update reports record high temperatures (Source: Новости Москвы). This is a civilian-related update. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Astrakhan, Russian Federation: RUF detained an "Azerbaijani nationalist." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Azerbaijan/Kazakhstan: RUF sources report "UAV exercises in Azerbaijan with participation of Kazakhstan." Additionally, Azerbaijan has arrested two former "Wagner" employees. Roselkhoznadzor rejected 18 tons of peaches/nectarines from Azerbaijan in Krasnodar. Басурин о главном questions "Whom does Russophobia of Baku surprise?", implying growing anti-Russian sentiment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Krasnodar, Russian Federation: RUF posts about social support for SVO participants' families. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kupyansk Direction: RUF tactical maps for the Lymano-Kupyansk sector show claimed control. RUF KABs reported on Kupyansk direction. Air Force of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs moving towards Kharkiv. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Stepova Novoselivka, Zapadne and Petropavlivka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sevastopol, Russian Federation: Five (5) people died in a car accident. Bastrykin ordered a report on the car accident with a minibus. Mash na Donbasse reports a motorcyclist died after being hit by a car in Luhansk. (Source: Mash на Донбассе). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Red Sea: Unverified RUF media report with video claims maritime attack on vessels 'MAGIC SEAS' and 'ETERNITY C' by "people in slippers," implying Houthi involvement. This highlights the growing threat of USVs and ballistic missiles against maritime targets, a capability that RUF could attempt to emulate or exploit. CONFIDENCE: LOW.
Syberia, Russian Federation: Alex Parker Returns refers to Yugra as "homeland of Uzbeks" in a video, hinting at internal ethnic tensions/disputes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Syktyvkar, Russian Federation: City court released Darya Chernysheva, director of "Revolt-center," under travel restrictions for "foreign agent" evasion charges. ASTRA reports "veterans of the SVO and public figures" held an action at the "Revolt-center" building in Syktyvkar, displaying "Z" letters and the word "traitors." (Source: ASTRA). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Novoseklovske Direction (RUF Map): RUF source "Рыбарь" released a map displaying military movements and territorial control. Рыбарь posts a message about "База — 52ой выпуск", likely an operational summary or analysis. Рыбарь also shared a photo message "«Коалиция желающих» готовится", which appears to be a propaganda image. Рыбарь posts "Срыв учета", potentially referring to disruption of UAF personnel accounting. UPDATED: Rybar posts on "PAS Catastrophe" (Moldova). (Source: Рыбарь). Рыбарь posts an immediate assessment regarding European "freedom." (Source: Рыбарь). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zakarpattia Oblast: RUF media claims a Hungarian citizen was beaten to death during mobilization efforts in Zakarpattia. This is currently an unverified claim, but if true, could escalate diplomatic tensions. Photos show children from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast being transported to a camp in Zakarpattia Oblast (Source: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)). This indicates internal displacement support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Tula Oblast, Russian Federation: Residents report a large number of explosions. ASTRA reports explosions heard in Proletarskyi district, Tula, where three major defense industry enterprises are located. RBC-Ukraine also reports drone attack on Tula. One person killed, one injured in Tula Oblast due to UAV attack. "Два майора" reports one injured, 13 drones shot down over Tula Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a loud morning near the Tula Instrument Design Bureau. STERNENKO reports repeat drone attacks on Kronstadt UAV production facility in Dubna, Moscow Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukrainian Air Force Alert: UAF Air Force reports attention for updated enemy drone movements. UAF Air Force reports a UAV on northern Kyiv Oblast moving southwest, and a UAV threat in Zhytomyr Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV threat to Odesa Oblast from Black Sea. UAF Air Force reports a RUF UAV in Brahin, Belarus, heading southwest. UAF Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile attack from the south, affecting multiple regions. UAF Air Force reports the ballistic missile threat has been called off. UAF Air Force reports new RUF UAVs in Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kirovohrad Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports a rapid-speed target (likely missile) moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports launches of KABs by RUF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. RBC-Україна reports "about 20 drones" potentially over Ukraine, according to Air Force. UAF Air Force reports 44 strike UAVs shot down (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). RBC-Ukraine confirms 44/79 drones shot down, 16 lost (Source: РБК-Україна). UPDATED: Ballistic missile threat alert across multiple Ukrainian oblasts. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна). UAF Air Force reports termination of the ballistic missile threat. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). Zaporizhzhia OVA reports termination of air raid siren. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). UAF General Staff reports 44 strike UAVs shot down. (Source: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donetsk Oblast (Verolyubovka): RUF "Yug" Group claims destruction of a UAF "Kozak" armored vehicle near Verolyubovka. Video provided by TASS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation: A UAF drone reportedly attacked the Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, which manufactures MiG-29, MiG-23, MiG-29K/KUB, and MiG-29M/M2 fighters. Video shows a fiery explosion. ASTRA shares photo message about the UAV attack on Lukhovitsy. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares video of UAV attack on Lukhovitsy. ASTRA confirms attack on Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, wall of compressor station collapsed. UPDATED: Video from BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows apparent drone impact. (Source: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). Новости Москвы reports 10,000 tick bites in Moscow region since the season began. (Source: Новости Москвы). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Leningrad Oblast, Russian Federation (Pulkovo Airport): Pulkovo Airport temporarily suspended operations due to drone activity. ASTRA confirms temporary suspension for 08:45 to 09:45 MSK. TASS reports Pulkovo Airport resumed operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Federation (General): TASS reports the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung suggests Ukraine has two ways to avoid complete defeat, both involving some form of retreat. Север.Реалии reports BBC confirmed 118,000 Russian deaths and 523 foreign deaths in Ukraine. Russia's total confirmed deaths exceed 118,000 (Source: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники). UPDATED: Russian Football Club "Orenburg" to replace Moscow "Torpedo" in Premier League. (Source: ТАСС). Sever.Realii reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense may send its only aircraft carrier, "Admiral Kuznetsov," to the scrapyard, indicating significant material loss or maintenance challenges. (Source: Север.Реалии). WarGonzo shares video claiming China conducted an amphibious landing drill on Taiwan. (Source: WarGonzo). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kharkiv Oblast (Residential Areas): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shared aerial footage of damaged residential buildings, suggesting recent combat or strikes in urban areas. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Ukraine (General Losses): UAF General Staff reports a total of 1040 Russian personnel killed on 11 JUL 2025. OTU "Kharkiv" provides estimated RUF losses. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares photos of "successfully demobilized" RUF personnel. Colonel Sergey Ilyin, commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, was liquidated on July 2. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares photos of "successfully demobilized" (killed) RUF personnel. STERNENKO reports that a Russian propagandist confirmed the liquidation of Colonel Sergey Ilyin, commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, in addition to Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Mikhail Gudkov, as a result of a strike on the 155th Brigade's headquarters. Басурин о главном reports 19-year-old Artem Melnik liquidated on the front, framing him as a "meme" from 2014. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms liquidation of Captain 2nd Rank Shipunov Oleksandr, Head of Staff, Communication and Troop Management for 155th Guards Marine Brigade. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports UAF liquidated the commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, Sergey Ilyin, in Kursk Oblast during a strike. (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports the liquidation of Captain Vladislav Yakovenko, commander of a sabotage and reconnaissance group from the 140th SSO Center of the AFU, by forces of the "Sever" Group. (Source: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Fiber Optic Cables): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares photo messages titled "UAF Fiber Optics," showing product labels for fiber optic cables. This is likely intelligence on UAF communication infrastructure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kazakhstan: "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares a video of an individual walking in Kazakhstan with anti-Putin graffiti, indicating anti-RUF sentiment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation: Глеб Никитин shares photos of city landscaping and monuments, indicating efforts to showcase normalcy. Глеб Никитин shares photos of "Olenya Luna" (Deer Moon) over Nizhny Novgorod Kremlin, again unrelated to military operations but promoting normalcy. Alex Parker Returns reports ban on migrant workers in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast was lifted due to labor shortages in public catering, hotels, taxis, and cleaning. This is an economic factor impacting workforce. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kyiv Metro: The Office of the Prosecutor General released a video on "Kyiv Metro: tunnel destruction between Demiivska and Lybidska – it's about irresponsibility," which suggests an ongoing internal investigation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Donbas (General): The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that a lieutenant colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been notified of suspicion for causing 25.5 million hryvnias in damages to the state budget. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Kyiv Oblast (Bobrytsia): The Office of the Prosecutor General reports stopping illegal sand extraction in Bobrytsia, Kyiv Oblast, with photo evidence. UPDATED: Children and caregivers spending day at Sobi Club in Kyiv suburb as part of "People of the Future" project. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Internal Affairs): RBC-Ukraine reports searches are being conducted on ex-minister Kubrakov. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports new charges in a case of supplying low-quality clothing to UAF, with damages of 1.16 billion UAH. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine shares photo messages about "Армія+" survey results, indicating internal feedback and reforms within the Ukrainian military. RBC-Ukraine reports Kubrakov reacted to information about searches at his place. MP Shevchenko received new suspicion regarding fertilizer fraud from Belarus (Source: РБК-Україна). UPDATED: "Резерв+" app now allows online payment of fines for not updating personal data. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration reports that schoolchildren from Zaporizhzhia went on a two-day educational trip to Bila Tserkva, and learned about the work of a top pharmaceutical enterprise in Ukraine. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Zaporizhzhia Direction: Zaporizhzhia OVA releases video of drone footage showing combat operations, including strikes on trenches and vehicles. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday near Malynivka in Huliaipole direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
France: "Два майора" reports France has resumed production of SCALP cruise missiles after a 15-year break, with accompanying photos of missile components and assembly. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Odesa Oblast (General): Colonelcassad shares video claiming the attack on Odesa TCC originated from the sea. Военкор Котенок, "Два майора", "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺", Kotsnews, and WarGonzo all confirm RUF strike on Odesa TCC. ASTRA reports aftermath of drone attack on Odesa with visible damage to a car service building. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a RUF drone over Odesa beach (Arcadia). Операция Z and Alex Parker Returns share photo and video messages of explosions/strikes on Odesa TCC. RBC-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report 8 injured in Odesa night attack. Zelenskiy / Official reports morning attack on Odesa Oblast. ASTRA reports Zelensky confirmed the attack on Odesa and the city council reported eight injured. The ASTRA video shows damaged buildings and an injured horse, reinforcing civilian impact. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video of a significant explosion, captioned "П...ц ТЦК" (F***ed TCC), further confirming the strike on the Odesa TCC. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a horse killed, several injured at a stable in Odesa, further reinforcing civilian impact. UPDATED: Number of injured in Odesa drone attack rises to 9. (Source: РБК-Україна). Video shows damaged buildings, injured animals (horses, dog), and rescue personnel in Odesa aftermath. (Source: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦). "Два майора" posted an image of an alleged incident at "Privoz" market in Odesa, further highlighting civilian impact. (Source: Два майора). STERNENKO reports a horse was killed and animals injured at a stable in Odesa following Russian strikes, with accompanying videos of the aftermath including damaged buildings and injured animals. (Source: STERNENKO). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sweden: ASTRA reports on a Russian family living in Sweden for 16 years, with two children born there, facing deportation to Tajikistan despite not having citizenship of any country and speaking Swedish better than Russian. This highlights a humanitarian/political issue with potential implications for international relations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Turkey/Kurds: Alex Parker Returns reports on an alleged victory by Turkey over the PKK, claiming Kurdish fighters have begun disarming in northern Iraq, signaling a significant geopolitical shift in the Middle East. Colonelcassad shares photos and videos from Iraq, featuring soldiers around a large bowl-shaped structure and moving down a staircase, likely related to counter-PKK operations or training exercises. (Source: Colonelcassad). CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Orlov Oblast, Russian Federation: ASTRA reports the Governor of Orlov Oblast announced damage to a "regional enterprise." CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Internal Affairs): Mash na Donbasse reports 7 years in prison for a Zaporizhzhia Oblast resident for hand grenades in refrigerator. TASS reports court satisfied claim of Prosecutor General's Office to seize shares of "Yuzhurazoloto". Court in Chelyabinsk nationalized shares of "Yuzhurazoloto" based on Prosecutor General's claim (Source: ASTRA). UPDATED: Lugansk residents to be without water due to power substation repairs during heatwave. (Source: Mash на Донбассе). TASS reports a prosecutor is requesting a 10-year prison sentence for Sergey Abramov, a corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, for financing extremism, indicating ongoing internal crackdown. (Source: ТАСС). General SVR reports on internal Russian political dynamics. (Source: General SVR). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Internal Affairs): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports suspicion notified to a People's Deputy of Ukraine, likely regarding corruption or misconduct. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Diplomacy): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports Valeriy Zaluzhny (former Commander-in-Chief of UAF) published an article for Ukrainian Pravda on Ukraine's strategy in building security alliances amid geopolitical instability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Diplomacy): TASS reports Peskov stated Russia continues work on prisoner and body exchanges with Ukraine, and is awaiting proposals from Ukraine on direct negotiations. He also declined to reveal details of Russia's proposals to US Secretary of State Rubio. "War correspondents of Russian Spring" (RUF propaganda) report Peskov's statements regarding Russia waiting for Trump's "important statement" on Monday (Source: Операция Z). UPDATED: Peskov states Brussels pushing Kyiv to continue war until "last Ukrainian". (Source: ТАСС). Операция Z reports Putin is confident in increasing advantages and not willing to make concessions under US pressure, according to NYT. (Source: Операция Z). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukraine (Cultural Impact): Zelenskiy / Official shares video tribute to Igor Poklad, Ukrainian composer, focusing on his legacy. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Global Diplomacy: UK Defense Minister John Healey states UK is ready to send troops to Ukraine to ensure a potential ceasefire as part of a new "Coalition of the Willing" international initiative from the EU. (Source: Воин DV). Keith Kellogg, Trump's special envoy, is expected to visit Kyiv on July 14 for a week. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, STERNENKO). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Internal Affairs (Medical): Новости Москвы reports doctors in Russian regions have started treating cancer with oak bark and chamomile, suggesting potential issues in access to modern medicine or alternative practices gaining traction. (Source: Новости Москвы). CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Russian Internal Affairs (Drones): Филолог в засаде announces a "Dronnitsa" meeting on September 6-7, signaling continued focus and development in drone technology within Russia. (Source: Филолог в засаде). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Fuel Exports): TASS reports the Russian government may introduce a full ban on gasoline exports, including for producers, if necessary, to stabilize the domestic fuel market. (Source: ТАСС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russia (Volunteer Support): Colonelcassad reports a collection drive for a 4th vehicle column for "KatyaValya" line, indicating ongoing civilian support for the front. (Source: Colonelcassad). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video appealing for donations for paratroopers. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Kyiv: Lingering smoke and burning smell due to RUF aerial attack, leading to poor air quality. Severe hailstorm occurred near Kyiv (Boryspil and Pereyaslav districts), causing localized damage. Electricity deficit due to heat. Moscow forecasts peak heat of +36°C, which could apply to neighboring areas impacting operations.
Rostov Oblast: Forest fires increasing in size.
Lviv & Lutsk: Severe flooding significantly impacts ground movement and strains emergency services. RBC-Ukraine reports 230 houses flooded in Lviv Oblast due to a year's worth of rain in one day. UPDATED: Drone footage shows widespread flooding in Lviv. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Irkutsk: Oil contamination on the Angara River indicates internal RUF environmental challenges.
Dagestan: Water poisoning indicates a localized health crisis. Water poisoning crisis has expanded to 372 affected, with 357 children.
Bryansk Oblast: Forecasted severe thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds for July 11. AV БогомаZ reports severe weather warnings for Bryansk Oblast on July 12, including thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds.
Donetsk Region: Extreme heat conditions (+60C direct sunlight, +41C shade) will impact personnel and equipment performance on the frontlines.
Moscow: Experiencing hottest day of the year (+33.7°C), leading to recommendations for reduced working hours and free water distribution.
Kursk Oblast: UAV attack resulted in fires at production facilities of a major agro-holding.
Lipetsk Oblast: UAV threat reported by local governor for Elets and Eletskiy district. UAF drone fell on farm in Khlevensky district, Lipetsk Oblast, causing fire.
Belgorod Oblast: Proximity to the border with Ukraine is preventing reconstruction efforts in some villages.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Damage to an agricultural enterprise and fire in Pokrovska Hromada due to UAV strike.
General: RUF media amplifying flooding in Western Ukraine as "boomerang" for St. Petersburg flooding (disinformation). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lugansk (occupied): Residents will be without water due to repairs of power substations during a heatwave. (Source: Mash на Донбассе). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF:
- Air Defense: Actively engaged in protracted air defense operations over Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, shooting down 178 out of 397 drones and 18 missiles. Successfully neutralized five (5) RUF UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Engaged reconnaissance UAVs over Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Sumy. Tracking UAVs towards Western Ukraine. New group of RUF strike UAVs reported moving towards Lyubotyn, Kharkiv Oblast. New groups of RUF strike UAVs are moving through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast. RUF strike UAVs are now reported in the suburbs of Sumy. UAF Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. Zelenskyy states Germany is ready to finance two Patriot systems, with Norway funding an additional one. KMA has launched a full-fledged system for intercepting enemy drones flying into Kyiv. All incoming "mopeds" (UAVs) in Mykolaiv area have been neutralized. UAF Air Defense shot down 3 UAVs over Smolensk Oblast. Pulkovo Airport temporarily suspended operations due to drone activity. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a UAF drone attack on Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant near Moscow. STERNENKO reports repeat drone attacks on Kronstadt UAV production facility in Dubna, Moscow Oblast. UAF Air Force reports an unidentified UAV in Chernihiv airspace and a strike UAV past Chernihiv, course for Mykhailo-Kotsiubynske. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAV in Kryvyi Rih area. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAV in Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile attack from the south, affecting multiple regions. UAF Air Force reports the ballistic missile threat has been called off. UAF Air Force reports new RUF UAVs in Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kirovohrad Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports a rapid-speed target (likely missile) moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RBC-Україна reports "about 20 drones" potentially over Ukraine, according to Air Force. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports a successful drone neutralization. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, means engaged to shoot them down. UAF Air Force reports 44 strike UAVs shot down out of 79 launched (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна). UPDATED: Ballistic missile threat alert across multiple Ukrainian oblasts. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна). UAF Air Force reports termination of ballistic missile threat. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). Zaporizhzhia OVA reports termination of air raid siren. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report a new record of 268 Russian UAVs shot down by "Trojka" air defense units in a month. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UAF General Staff reports 44 UAVs shot down. (Source: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Ground Forces: General Staff reports repelling 14 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. Maintaining defensive posture against RUF ground advances on critical axes in Donbas, Kupyansk/Kharkiv, and Kherson direction. DeepState reports approx. 40 FPV drone strikes in Dobropillia by UAF. UAF Southern Defense Forces continue strikes on enemy positions. SBS in cooperation with 74th ORB aerial reconnaissance destroyed a Buk anti-aircraft missile system, a Strela anti-aircraft missile system, and other armored vehicles in the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk border area. Operatyvnyi ZSU released a video showing a Ukrainian drone targeting and neutralizing an enemy combatant near a damaged building. General Staff of UAF released a video showing the 36th Separate Marine Brigade conducting amphibious assault training. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled a RUF assault on Toretsk direction, involving a "Tsar-tank." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of 68th Separate Jaeger Brigade clearing fortifications in destroyed buildings. Zaporizhzhia OVA releases video of drone footage showing UAF combat operations, including strikes on trenches and vehicles. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports "OMEGA-WEST" special forces unit cleared a multi-story building. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Andriyivka, Kindrashivka, Volodymyrivka, Nova Nich, Sadky of Sumy region, Oleksiyivka of Dnipropetrovsk region, Pokrovsk of Donetsk region, Zaliznychne, Bilohirya, Novoandriyivka, Plavni of Zaporizhzhia region, Lvove of Kherson region. UAF General Staff provides updated reports on clashes in Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, Kherson, Kursk, and North Slobozhansky directions. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shares photos of soldiers training, indicating ongoing combat readiness and adaptation. Сили оборони Півдня України shares video of cooperation between artillery and drones from Dnipro Battalion with pilots of RUBPAK 108th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade. UPDATED: DSHV calls for donations for "Optical Rusorez" (reconnaissance and attack drones). (Source: STERNENKO). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian assault in Chasiv Yar, destroying an armored vehicle and its crew. (Source: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition reports the liquidation of Captain Vladislav Yakovenko, commander of a sabotage and reconnaissance group from the 140th SSO Center of the AFU, by forces of the "Sever" Group. (Source: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition). DeepState shares video of RUF FPV drone operations on the Kramatorsk-Dobropillia road, showing damaged vehicles. (Source: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Logistics/Support: Emergency services actively engaged in damage assessment, firefighting, and casualty management in Kyiv (28 injured). Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons conducting outreach meetings. Zaporizhzhia OVA transferred DJI Mavic 3 drones and EcoFlow power stations to the front. DeepState reports new e-points for faster drone/EW procurement. Fundraising efforts for anti-thermal cloaks. STERNENKO reports 40.1 million UAH collected out of 50 million needed. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that a lieutenant colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been notified of suspicion for causing 25.5 million hryvnias in damages to the state budget. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports new charges in a case of supplying low-quality clothing to UAF, with damages of 1.16 billion UAH. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video explaining how "wanted" persons are legally pursued in Ukraine, including references to articles of the Criminal Code and the Code of Ukraine on Administrative Offenses concerning detention, prosecution, and martial law, likely a public information campaign. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photo messages about "Армія+" survey results, indicating internal feedback and reforms within the Ukrainian military, possibly for improving logistical or personnel management. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими shares photos of a meeting with families of 36th Separate Marine Brigade soldiers on POW/MIA issues. STERNENKO reports 41 million out of 50 million UAH collected for anti-thermal cloaks. Ukrainian children from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast sent to a camp in Zakarpattia Oblast (Source: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)). This is a civilian support measure. UPDATED: Children and caregivers of "People of the Future" project spend day at Sobi Club near Kyiv. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). Zaporizhzhia schoolchildren embarked on an educational trip, highlighting continued efforts for civilian well-being and education despite conflict. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). The Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons met with families of the 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, focusing on soldiers missing near Pobieda, demonstrating ongoing support for families of service members. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Governance/Diplomacy: KMA and Operational Armed Forces of Ukraine providing updated reports on Kyiv attack consequences. Zelensky emphasizes need for recovery coalition and Marshall Plan. Zelensky states Ukraine is ready for EU accession talks. Zelenskiy and Oleg Syniehubov are livestreaming a press conference. Zelenskyy states strong sanctions will influence Russia's willingness to negotiate. Zelenskyy projects that Putin may spend 300 billion USD on the war next year. He also confirms that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are not currently taking place. Zelenskyy's official channel shares video of a high-level "Coalition of Willing" meeting with US representatives. German Chancellor Merz states Russia must pay Ukraine €500 billion in damages. Zelenskyy met with Bulgarian PM, EU Commission President, and Polish Prime Minister. RBC-Ukraine reports Macron suggests core peacekeeping force for Ukraine could reach 50,000 troops. RBC-Ukraine reports Trump will use his authority to send weapons to Ukraine for the first time. The Office of the Prosecutor General informed suspicion to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev for war crimes. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports stopping illegal sand extraction in Bobrytsia, Kyiv Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports searches on ex-minister Kubrakov. Олександр Вілкул shares photos from a meeting, captioning "RECONSTRUCT BETTER THAN IT WAS", indicating focus on recovery and rebuilding. RBC-Ukraine reports the European Commission wants to propose a floating price cap mechanism on Russian oil. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares Trump's statements on being disappointed with Russia, and that NATO allies will pay for US weapons for Ukraine. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТИEDОТТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) shares video of Giorgia Meloni at a conference, discussing increased pressure on Moscow because Italians and Europeans are tired of the war. РБК-Україна reports Zelensky confirmed the attack on Odesa and the city council reported eight injured. РБК-Україна reports Zelensky reacted to the damage to the maternity hospital in Kharkiv, stating "Russia targets life." Офіс Генерального прокурора reports suspicion notified to a People's Deputy of Ukraine. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on Valeriy Zaluzhny's article on Ukraine's strategy in building security alliances. The "Rerezerv+" app now allows online payment of fines with a 50% discount (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). RBC-Ukraine reports that Kellogg announced his trip to Kyiv, indicating continued high-level visits and diplomatic support. (Source: РБК-Україна). UPDATED: Keith Kellogg, special envoy of Trump, will visit Kyiv on July 14 and stay for a week. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, STERNENKO). RBC-Ukraine reports a new stage of drone combat where Ukraine is preparing a response to jet attacks, with an image of a person appearing to be a defense official, indicating strategic planning against future threats. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
RUF:
- Deep Operations: Executed a protracted, complex, multi-domain aerial attack on Kyiv for 10-11 hours using 397 drones and 18 ballistic missiles, causing significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Continues KAB/KAR launches against Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk. Employing reconnaissance UAVs over Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, and sending new UAV groups towards Western Ukraine. Claimed Iskander strike on UAF 35th Marine Brigade PVD in Barativka, Mykolaiv Oblast, and Iskander-M strike on UAF PVD in Chervone, Kherson Oblast. RUF is reportedly using RAM pickup trucks for Geran (Shahed) drone launches. RUF "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes concentrated on Mykolaiv overnight. RUF MoD reports 155 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs shot down over Russian regions overnight, including 11 over Moscow region, and 19 over Bryansk Oblast. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reports RUF drone strike on an agricultural enterprise in Pokrovska Hromada. RUF forces launched 6 UAVs on Sumy community this morning. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches tactical aviation on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy attack UAVs on Odesa. "Николаевский Ванёк" reports 7 drones from the sea towards Odesa. RBC-Ukraine and STERNENKO confirm drone attack on Odesa, with explosions reported. "Два майора" reports 6 hits in Odesa. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports an impact on a TCC in Odesa. Военкор Котенок, "Два майора", "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺", Kotsnews, and WarGonzo all confirm RUF strike on Odesa TCC. Colonelcassad shares video claiming the attack on Odesa TCC originated from the sea. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Oleksiyivka of Dnipropetrovsk region, Pokrovsk of Donetsk region, Zaliznychne, Bilohirya, Novoandriyivka, Plavni of Zaporizhzhia region, Lvove of Kherson region. Операция Z and Alex Parker Returns share photo and video messages of explosions/strikes on Odesa TCC. ТАСС reports UAF attacked Energodar administration building with a loitering munition. ТАСС reports that Russian troops conducted 6 group strikes with high-precision weapons, including Kinzhal missiles, against military targets in Ukraine over the past week. MoD Russia reiterates 6 group strikes with high-precision weapons between July 5-11. UPDATED: Fire at Orsk Mechanical Plant, producer of artillery shells. (Source: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ). Colonelcassad shows video claiming "Odessa residents are objectively monitoring the arrival of Russian kamikaze drones of the Geran type." (Source: Colonelcassad). TASS reports Russian air defense shot down a Ukrainian drone over the Black Sea. (Source: ТАСС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Ground Forces: Sustaining attritional ground assaults in Donbas (Chasiv Yar, Siversk, west of Avdiivka, Konstantinovka-Yablonovka, Velikaya Novoselka-Voskresenka, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Toretsk directions, Karlo Marksa) and Kharkiv/Kupyansk axes (Vovchansk, Lyptsi, Borova/Borovska Andriivka). Claims of "liberated Dachne." RUF paratroopers claim to be "burning enemy equipment and UAV control points" near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast. "Kadyrov_95" details "Akhmat" special forces operations in Alexandrovka, Sumy Oblast. Enemy forces, primarily elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army and 11th Army Corps, are attempting to consolidate tactical gains near Lyptsi and Vovchansk. Elements of the 83rd Air Assault Brigade have been identified moving towards Vovchansk. Enemy forces have intensified ground assaults on the eastern suburbs of Chasiv Yar, employing "human wave" tactics. Increased pressure maintained along Pokrovsk axis. "Операция Z" reports Russian forces are advancing towards Zelenyi Hai and Borovska Andriivka. RUF 64th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, 35th Army conducting "fire sweeping" of forest belts in the Huliaipole direction. TASS reports UAF was forced to retreat from Zelena Dolyna. "Воин DV" claims 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade annihilated UAF armored personnel carrier (BTR) in Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk direction. "Операция Z" claims Russian army occupied most of Mirny and reached Voskresenka. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled a RUF assault on Toretsk direction, involving a "Tsar-tank." "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims ВКС РФ destroyed two UAF platoons in Dnipropetrovsk direction. General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports clashes yesterday in Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, Kherson, Kursk, and North Slobozhansky directions. TASS reports UAF has concentrated most combat-ready forces, including "Birds of Hungary" and "Wild Hornets" strike group, on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) section of the front. Kadyrov_95 shares video claiming "Akhmat-Chechnya" regiment established full control over Novonykolaivka, Sumy Oblast. ТАСС and Colonelcassad reports that Russian forces liberated Zelena Dolyna in DPR. Операция Z confirms the liberation of Zelena Dolyna. MoD Russia reports Zelenaya Dolina (DPR) and Sobolevka (Kharkiv region) were liberated by Zapad Group of Forces. UPDATED: "Arcangel Spetsnaza" claims battles for Kamenskoye are over. (Source: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА). RUF claims advance towards Konstantinovka, taking positions in Dzerzhinsk. (Source: Басурин о главном). Kotsnews shares videos showing Russian soldiers describing operations to take Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast, reporting on encountered enemy equipment and successful infiltration. (Source: Kotsnews). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Force Generation/Logistics: New Su-34 deliveries reported. Electronic registry for conscription notices fully operational. Relying on public support for tactical equipment. "Старше Эдды" discusses the high expenditure of anti-aircraft missiles and the need for cheaper air defense options. ASTRA reports that only just over 70 war participants have been demobilized in the past year. "Два майора" is seen appealing for donations for "assault forces" on the Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad posts a video of a NRTK "Courier" robot delivering cargo to assault teams. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares video of humanitarian aid delivery by Russian forces. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shows a military award ceremony for "For the Assault" sign, acknowledging battlefield valor and possibly boosting morale/recruitment. "Народная милиция ДНР" shares images showing two drones and a QR code with a shield, captioned "From the volunteers 2.0," indicating continued reliance on and promotion of volunteer support for tactical equipment. MoD Russia reports military signalmen of the 44th Army Corps (Sever Group of Forces) are conducting drills to deploy secure means of communication with assault detachments. This includes training on the R-187-P1 'Azart' radio station. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims number of Ukrainian deserters exceeded 230,000, with Kyiv estimating half a million, and emphasizes forced mobilization in Ukraine (RUF propaganda). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a mobilized individual was released after their publication, possibly highlighting public pressure on mobilization issues. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo of a woman in a military uniform, implying a propaganda piece with the caption "Zaluzhny is begging the US for expired missiles," indicating efforts to discredit Ukrainian military leadership and portray the dire state of Ukrainian supplies. TASS reports guardians of fallen SVO fighters will receive social support, draft law to be submitted to State Duma. "Верстка" (Russian publication) reports that only 12% of detained Russian criminals are willing to go to the front (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). This suggests challenges in penal recruitment. Филолог в засаде announced a "Dronnitsa" meeting, indicating continued focus on drone development and innovation within Russia. (Source: Филолог в засаде). UPDATED: TASS reports the Russian government may introduce a full ban on gasoline exports. (Source: ТАСС). Colonelcassad reports a collection drive for a 4th vehicle column. (Source: Colonelcassad). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video appealing for donations for paratroopers. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Internal Security: FSB claims detention of two UAF military intelligence agents in Melitopol and one in Crimea. FSB claims prevention of a terrorist attack in Krasnodar Krai. Alleged assassination of SBU Colonel Ivan Voronich in Kyiv. Azerbaijan has arrested two former "Wagner" employees. TASS reports that Ukrainian Dilyaver Kurshutov, planning to poison Russian military, is accused under five articles of the Russian Criminal Code. TASS reports an individual wanted for trading personal data of Russians has been extradited from Indonesia. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports a Voronezh official, Gennady Shvyrkov, was detained for fraud against "SVO" fighters. TASS reports FSB detained two residents of Bryansk Oblast for collecting data on MOD facilities and preparing attacks, also receiving explosives via UAV. Полиция Хабаровского края reports an award to a police captain for assisting a sick man, aimed at showcasing positive internal actions. "Два майора" reports FSB conducted an operation in Bryansk Oblast, apprehending an individual and seizing disassembled drones, propellers, batteries, remote controls, laptops, and a handgun with a silencer, confirming ongoing counter-espionage efforts. Colonelcassad shares a video message claiming the detention of two Ukrainian special services agents who were carrying out intelligence and subversive activities in Bryansk and neighboring regions, further confirming RUF counter-intelligence operations. TASS reports State Duma Committee approved draft law strengthening responsibility for foreign agents. TASS reports court satisfied claim of Prosecutor General's Office to seize shares of "Yuzhurazoloto". TASS reports a prosecutor is seeking a 10-year sentence for former head of GABTU Ministry of Defense's utilization service, Timofeev, for large-scale bribery, indicating ongoing corruption within the MOD. (Source: ТАСС). ASTRA reports the Prosecutor General's Office wants to recover nearly 1 billion rubles from the organizers of defensive structures on the Belgorod border with Ukraine due to alleged financial irregularities. (Source: ASTRA). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capabilities: RUF demonstrates high capability for sustained, protracted, multi-vector aerial strikes integrating ballistic missiles and large volumes of drones. This capability extends with new strike UAV groups moving towards Kharkiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, Sumy, Lipetsk Oblast, Tula Oblast, and now Odesa. RUF is capable of deep strikes on aviation plants (Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, Beriev Aviation Plant in Taganrog) and military production facilities (Kronstadt UAV production facility, Tula Instrument Design Bureau), and regional enterprises (Orlov Oblast). UPDATED: Fire at Orsk Mechanical Plant indicates RUF vulnerability in artillery shell production but also highlights a potential target for UAF deep strikes. (Source: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ). Maintains effective FPV drone and tactical aviation (KAB/KAR) capabilities for frontline support and precision targeting. Retains capacity for attritional ground assaults aiming for incremental gains, including "human wave" tactics in Chasiv Yar. Demonstrated counter-UAV effectiveness (155 UAVs shot down over Russia). Possesses deep-state kinetic special operations capability (alleged SBU Colonel assassination). Strong counter-intelligence and internal security apparatus. Sustained domestic defense industrial output. Increasing capacity for forced manpower mobilization. Developing homemade UGVs. Adapting with mobile drone launch platforms. Demonstrated capability for establishing wireless communication links in operational areas. Claims of a "tank-monster" enduring 60 drone strikes suggest an adapting approach to vehicle survivability. MoD Russia is demonstrating capability for rapid and secure communication deployment to forward assault detachments, enhancing tactical C2 and coordination. RUF demonstrates capability to destroy enemy UAV launch positions using TOS-1A Solntsepyok. ТАСС reports that Russian forces conducted 6 group strikes with high-precision weapons, including Kinzhal missiles, against military targets in Ukraine over the past week, demonstrating continued capability for high-value precision strikes. RUF capabilities for ground operations in Lyman direction confirmed by video showing artillery strikes and infantry movement (Source: ТАСС, Басурин о главном). RUF capabilities for ground operations in Sumy Oblast are evident from claimed capture of Bessalovka. (Source: Kotsnews). WarGonzo's video claiming China's amphibious landing drill demonstrates RUF's interest in and propagation of information on other military powers' capabilities, which could be analyzed for potential emulation or strategic alignment. (Source: WarGonzo). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Intentions:
- Degrade UAF Air Defenses & Civilian Morale: Primary intent of protracted, integrated aerial attacks is to exhaust UAF air defense munitions/personal, inflict maximum civilian casualties and damage, and cause panic/demoralization. Targeting civilian infrastructure and medical facilities confirms this. The new UAV groups reinforce intent to apply air pressure across multiple axes and target military-industrial infrastructure. Recent strikes on Odesa confirm RUF intent to target additional major Ukrainian cities from the Black Sea, particularly recruitment centers. The confirmed strike on Odesa TCC underscores RUF intent to specifically target Ukrainian military recruitment infrastructure, aiming to disrupt force generation. Strikes on medical facilities and maternity hospitals aim to maximize psychological impact and civilian casualties. Ballistic missile launch towards Vilkove indicates intent to continue long-range precision strikes against coastal targets.
- Degrade RUF Military-Industrial Complex (asymmetric/reciprocal): UAF drone attacks in Lipetsk, Tula, Moscow Oblasts, and Beriev Aviation Plant indicate UAF intent to strike Russian military-industrial targets and supporting infrastructure as reciprocal action.
- Achieve Incremental Territorial Gains & Breakthroughs: Continue attritional ground assaults in Donbas and Kharkiv, aiming for tactical advances and consolidation. Commitment of 83rd AAB signals intent for significant momentum or a new thrust. RUF operations in Huliaipole direction suggest intent to probe or fix UAF defenses. TASS claim of UAF grouping in Pokrovsk/Dimitrov being in a "fire bag" indicates intent to encircle and eliminate UAF forces. Concentration of "most combat-ready" UAF forces on the Pokrovsk axis (as claimed by TASS) indicates RUF intent to engage and neutralize high-value UAF units in this sector, supporting broader Donbas objectives. RUF seeks to establish full control over settlements in Sumy Oblast, as claimed by Kadyrov_95 in Novonykolaivka. The declared liberation of Zelena Dolyna indicates RUF intent to achieve territorial gains. The claimed liberation of Sobolevka in Kharkiv region indicates RUF intent to expand control and apply pressure in this axis. Claims of Kamenskoye capture and advance on Dzerzhinsk/Konstantinovka indicate RUF intent to continue offensive operations on the Donetsk axis. RUF intends to conduct ground operations in Sumy Oblast as evidenced by claimed capture of Bessalovka.
- Disrupt UAF Logistics & C2: Continue targeting UAF rear areas, supply points, engineering equipment, and rotation attempts. Actively seeking to destroy Starlink equipment. RUF also targets UAF administration buildings, such as the one in Energodar. RUF intends to disrupt UAF special operations capabilities, as indicated by the reported liquidation of a SSO group commander.
- Subvert Ukrainian Internal Security: Alleged SBU Colonel assassination demonstrates an intent to cause internal instability. Unverified claim of Hungarian citizen killed during mobilization could be intended to stir ethnic tensions. Alleged poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia indicates RUF intent to conduct acts of terrorism.
- Intensify Information Warfare: Sustain and escalate disinformation campaigns to justify aggression, demoralize UAF, and influence international opinion. Promote narratives of Russian military heroism and inevitable victory. Exploit any perceived shifts in Western support (Trump's comments). RUF will continue to reinforce public narratives of "goodness" and "heroism" within their military and civilian structures. Lavrov's statement about Europe trying to "raise history for war with Russia" clearly signals intent to shape international discourse and portray Russia as a victim or defensive actor. RUF intends to amplify narratives of Ukrainian desertion and forced mobilization to degrade Ukrainian morale and international support. RUF intends to discredit Ukrainian military leadership and portray the dire state of Ukrainian supplies (e.g., "Zaluzhny is begging for expired missiles"). RUF will continue to reinforce narratives of Russian heroism and civilian support for the war, as seen with "Bryansk Field Day". RUF intends to promote its internal counter-intelligence successes. Peskov's statements on unacceptable foreign troop deployment near Russia's borders indicate an intent to project a strong defensive posture and deter further Western military aid or intervention (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF intends to use low willingness of criminals to join the front to portray Ukraine as facing severe manpower issues, thus undermining morale (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). RUF propaganda adapts to highlight perceived lack of enthusiasm among detained criminals to join the front, implying Ukrainian manpower crisis (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). RUF propaganda adapts to counter narratives of US air defense effectiveness, questioning the S-400's performance (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF propaganda adapts to highlight civilian aircraft over Kyiv as a sign of normalisation, possibly undermining the perceived threat of ongoing aerial attacks (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Fighterbomber, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UPDATED: TASS reports UAF planted mines in money, toys, and sweets in Kursk, likely intended to support a narrative of Ukrainian perfidy and targeting civilians. (Source: ТАСС). Peskov's statement that Brussels is pushing Kyiv to fight to the "last Ukrainian" indicates an intent to portray Ukraine as a puppet and prolonging the war unnecessarily. (Source: ТАСС). RUF intends to highlight political statements that align with their narrative, such as Viktor Orban's comments on Hungary's non-involvement. (Source: Colonelcassad). RUF intends to use images from Odesa to show perceived "objective control" by residents of drone strikes, which is a propaganda attempt to legitimize their attacks. (Source: Colonelcassad). RUF intends to use symbolic gestures like the painting from Belgorod to reinforce narratives of resilience and victory. (Source: ТАСС). RUF will continue to portray internal Ukrainian situations, such as civilian interactions at markets, in a way that suggests disarray or hardship, though the specific intent of the "Privoz" market image is unclear. (Source: Два майора). RUF will use information from international sources like NYT to bolster its narrative of strength and resolve, indicating an intent to influence global perception of its standing vis-à-vis the US. (Source: Операция Z). RUF will use civilian-oriented information from Russia, such as tick bites in Moscow region, to project normalcy and deflect from military conflict. (Source: Новости Москвы). RUF will use internal corruption cases to showcase its anti-corruption efforts and reinforce a narrative of strong governance. (Source: ТАСС, ASTRA). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Courses of Action:
- MLCOA: RUF will continue current patterns of attritional ground assaults in Donbas, Kharkiv, Sumy/Kursk border, and Kherson direction. They will maintain increased frequency, volume, and protracted complexity of aerial strikes on Ukrainian deep targets, prioritizing Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and now Odesa to saturate air defenses. Expect continued deep strikes on military-industrial targets in Russia. Expect further civilian casualties, infrastructure damage. Deep-state kinetic special operations targeting high-value Ukrainian security/intelligence personnel are likely to continue. The use of mobile drone launch platforms will complicate detection. Expect continued UAV activity in border regions of Russia. Continued use of FPV drones, updated Lancet loitering munitions, KAB/KARs, and precision missiles for tactical and deep strikes. Increased information operations. Persistent reconnaissance activities. RUF will continue targeting UAF unmanned ground systems and will attempt to encircle and destroy the UAF grouping in Pokrovsk/Dimitrov. RUF will attempt to exploit any C2 disruption within the 155th Marine Brigade caused by the recent liquidation of their command element, either by pushing new leadership rapidly or by pausing/re-prioritizing offensive actions by this specific unit. RUF will continue to target Ukrainian administrative buildings in occupied territories. RUF will continue to focus ground pressure and tactical aviation strikes on key Donbas axes, specifically Pokrovsk, as evidenced by claimed UAF force concentrations. Expect continued efforts to improve tactical communication for ground units, particularly assault detachments, to enhance battlefield coordination. RUF will continue offensive actions aimed at gaining full control of settlements in border regions of Sumy Oblast. RUF will use high-precision strikes (e.g., Kinzhal missiles) against high-value military targets. RUF will exploit internal Ukrainian issues such as conscription and military leadership to sow discord. RUF will continue to reinforce territorial gains in the Kharkiv region, as evidenced by the claimed liberation of Sobolevka. RUF will continue to engage UAF vehicles during rotation attempts, as evidenced by recent UAV engagements (Source: Воин DV). RUF will continue efforts to reinforce claimed control over Zelena Dolyna, DPR, as evidenced by official MoD videos (Source: ТАСС, Басурин о главном). RUF will continue to emphasize statements on unacceptable foreign troop presence near Russian borders to justify defensive posturing (Source: Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad). UPDATED: RUF will likely attempt to seize control of Kamenskoye and advance towards Dzerzhinsk/Konstantinovka to secure new positions. (Source: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Басурин о главном). RUF will continue to use propaganda about UAF mining money, toys, and sweets in Kursk. (Source: ТАСС). RUF will continue to use the narrative that Brussels is pushing Kyiv to fight to the "last Ukrainian". (Source: ТАСС). RUF will continue to use civilian events to project normalcy and stability (Source: AV БогомаZ, Игорь Артамонов). RUF will continue to use narratives of internal Western discord (Alex Parker Returns). RUF will continue ground advances in Sumy Oblast, as seen with claimed capture of Bessalovka. (Source: Kotsnews). RUF will likely continue to pursue legal action against alleged corruption in military-related projects, as seen with the Belgorod defensive structures. (Source: ASTRA). RUF will continue to promote and highlight ongoing civilian support and fundraising efforts for military units. (Source: Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- MDCOA (Major Coordinated Offensive from Northern Axis): Leveraging concentrated forces in Belgorod, RUF initiates a full-scale, multi-pronged offensive towards Kharkiv, aiming for deep envelopment and fixation of significant UAF reserves, coupled with a breakthrough attempt in the Donbas. This could be supported by a more significant ground incursion into Sumy Oblast. The commitment of the 83rd AAB to Vovchansk indicates a higher probability of this envelopment attempt. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
- MDCOA (Chemical Weapon False Flag): RUF executes a false flag chemical attack on a civilian area or on its own forces, using recent claims of UAF using poisonous substances as a direct pretext. CONFIDENCE: LOW.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RUF:
- Aerial Attack Integration: Adapting by extending the duration and integrating ballistic missiles with Shahed drones in multi-vector, immediate follow-up attacks to overwhelm air defenses. Now explicitly claiming strikes on military-industrial complex targets. Introduction of mobile launch platforms for Geran drones. Demonstrated fielding of updated Lancet loitering munitions. Extending UAV strike vectors to include Lipetsk, Tula, and now Odesa. New deep strike capability against aviation production plants in Russia (Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, Beriev Aviation Plant in Taganrog) and regional enterprises (Orlov Oblast). Confirmed strikes on Odesa TCC suggest specific targeting of military recruitment infrastructure. The alleged sea-launched drones for the Odesa attack, if verified, indicate adaptation in launch platforms and vectors, potentially to bypass land-based defenses. RUF demonstrates capability to destroy enemy UAV launch positions using TOS-1A Solntsepyok. RUF continues to use high-precision, high-value assets for strikes (e.g., Kinzhal missiles). RUF milbloggers claiming "objective control" of drone strikes by Odesa residents indicates an attempt to adapt propaganda to local narratives. (Source: Colonelcassad). RUF is adapting its deep strike capabilities to target UAF SSO units, as evidenced by the reported liquidation of a SSO group commander.
- Ground Tactics: Adapting by committing operational reserves (83rd AAB) to critical sectors. Employing "human wave" tactics in Chasiv Yar. Increased focus on exploiting perceived UAF weaknesses. Adapting to target UAF engineering assets and rotation attempts. Implementing "clearing operations" with combined special forces, FPV drones, and artillery. Actively targeting Starlink stations. Adapting to establish wireless communication links in damaged urban environments. RUF is deploying NRTK "Courier" robots for cargo delivery. Military signalmen of the 44th Army Corps conducting drills for secure communication deployment indicates an adaptation to improve C2 for ground assault operations. The successful liquidation of UAF positions and PVDs near Yablonovka further highlights effective tactical C2 for precision strikes. However, the VDV cadet killing a commander highlights a potential severe C2 failure at the training/leadership level. RUF is adapting its ground tactics to seize settlements in Sumy Oblast, as seen with claimed capture of Bessalovka. (Source: Kotsnews).
- Targeting Precision: Confirmed adaptation for precision long-range strikes against UAF temporary deployment points (PVDs) using Iskander missiles. Systematic targeting of UAF personnel and firing points. Targeting of administrative buildings like Energodar's. Confirmed targeting of Ukrainian TCCs.
- Information Operations: Adapting by providing more detailed, visual "frontline briefings" and quickly countering international criticism. Producing counter-propaganda videos. Explicitly linking civilian casualties to Ukrainian units. TASS is actively reporting on UAF UAV shootdowns over Russian territory and associated casualties, and countering claims of UAF breakthroughs into Belgorod. TASS is now actively reporting on Trump's statements to influence international discourse. Milbloggers disseminate daily operational updates. Intensifying narratives about Ukraine abandoning its wounded soldiers. Promoting narratives of Russian military heroism. RUF milbloggers are quick to claim successful strikes on UAF TCCs (Territorial Recruitment Centers), leveraging these as propaganda points. RUF channels are attempting to cultivate narratives of local Ukrainian populations "thanking" them for strikes against UAF targets. Lavrov's public statements continue to attempt to frame the conflict as a historical imperative and Western aggression, adapting to counter international criticism and rally domestic support. RUF is amplifying narratives of widespread Ukrainian desertion and forced mobilization. RUF channels are attempting to discredit Ukrainian military leadership and supplies through propaganda (e.g., "Zaluzhny is begging for expired missiles"). Alex Parker Returns's content about internal corruption within the Russian military and geopolitical shifts (Turkey/Kurds) indicates RUF milbloggers are adapting to broader narratives and criticisms, though often with a pro-Russian slant. TASS reports Peskov emphasizing continued work on prisoner exchanges and negotiations, adapting to maintain diplomatic narratives while operations continue. TASS reporting on State Duma legislation regarding foreign agents indicates an adaptation to further control the information space. RUF propaganda adapts to highlight perceived lack of enthusiasm among detained criminals to join the front, implying Ukrainian manpower crisis (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). RUF propaganda adapts to counter narratives of US air defense effectiveness, questioning the S-400's performance (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF propaganda adapts to highlight civilian aircraft over Kyiv as a sign of normalisation, possibly undermining the perceived threat of ongoing aerial attacks (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Fighterbomber, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UPDATED: RUF propaganda adapts to claim UAF is mining money, toys, and sweets in Kursk, aimed at portraying UAF as targeting civilians maliciously. (Source: ТАСС). Peskov's statements on Brussels pushing Kyiv for war adapt to portray Ukraine as externally controlled. (Source: ТАСС). RUF propaganda adapts to leverage events like the painting presented to Putin to reinforce narratives of national resilience and anti-Ukrainian sentiment. (Source: ТАСС). RUF propaganda adapts to focus on purported internal Ukrainian issues, even if irrelevant to military operations, such as the "Privoz" market image, to portray internal disarray. (Source: Два майора). RUF propaganda adapts to use civilian events and positive news, such as tick bites, to project normalcy and divert attention from the conflict, as seen in Moscow news. (Source: Новости Москвы). RUF propaganda is adapting to use international news sources, such as NYT, to bolster its own narrative of strength and resolve against the US. (Source: Операция Z). RUF propaganda adapts to use imagery of military parades or ceremonies to project military strength and unity (Source: «Зона СВО»). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Internal Security: Enhanced counter-intelligence operations. Management of internal ethnic/political tensions. The internal incident involving a VDV cadet killing a commander highlights a potential severe C2 failure at the training/leadership level. FSB operation in Bryansk seizing drone components confirms continued adaptation to counter UAF deep strike capabilities and internal threats. Colonelcassad confirms the detention of Ukrainian agents, signaling proactive counter-intelligence. RUF is adapting its internal security to prosecute alleged financial irregularities in defensive construction projects, as seen in Belgorod. (Source: ASTRA). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Force Generation: Significant adaptation with the full operationalization of the electronic conscription registry for forced mobilization. Maintaining low demobilization rates. Continued public calls for donations. RUF continues to promote and showcase "volunteer" efforts to support their forces, likely to mitigate state logistical shortcomings and boost public engagement. RUF media is adapting to highlight instances where public pressure (e.g., their publications) allegedly led to positive outcomes for mobilized individuals, attempting to improve public perception of mobilization. TASS reporting on social support for guardians of fallen SVO fighters indicates an adaptation to bolster support for military families and maintain public morale. RUF continues to adapt its drone development and production efforts, as seen by the upcoming "Dronnitsa" meeting. (Source: Филолог в засаде). RUF is adapting to manage fuel supply for domestic consumption, indicating a proactive stance on resource management that can impact military logistics. (Source: ТАСС). RUF is also adapting to highlight direct civilian support for military units through fundraising efforts. (Source: Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Resource Leveraging: Increased reliance on public donations for tactical equipment. Proposing alternative, cheaper air defense solutions.
- Tactical Innovation: Development of homemade UGVs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF:
- Air Defense Resilience: Demonstrating rapid and sustained response to the prolonged, integrated multi-vector aerial attacks. Actively seeking more Patriot systems through international partners. Discussing domestic development of Patriot analogues. Zelenskyy claims solution found to shoot down "almost all" UAVs. UAF claims neutralization of all incoming UAVs in Mykolaiv area. UAF Air Defense shot down 3 UAVs over Smolensk Oblast. UAF drone activity resulted in temporary suspension of Pulkovo Airport operations. UAF drone attack on Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant near Moscow. STERNENKO reports repeat drone attacks on Kronstadt UAV production facility in Dubna, Moscow Oblast. KMA has launched a full-fledged system for intercepting enemy drones flying into Kyiv. The rapid confirmation and then cancellation of ballistic missile threats by UAF Air Force indicates adaptive and effective early warning and response protocols. UAF Air Force is tracking potentially 20 drones over Ukraine, indicating continuous adaptive threat monitoring. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports a successful drone neutralization. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports means engaged to shoot down UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, demonstrating active air defense. High UAV interception rate of 44/79 shows continued adaptation and effectiveness of air defense (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна). UPDATED: Ballistic missile threat alert across multiple Ukrainian oblasts. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна). UAF Air Force reports termination of ballistic missile threat. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). Zaporizhzhia OVA reports termination of air raid siren. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). UAF air defense claims a new record of 268 Russian UAVs shot down in a month, demonstrating significant adaptive capacity and effectiveness. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). RBC-Ukraine reports Ukraine is preparing a response to jet attacks, indicating adaptation in drone combat strategy. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Decentralized Defense: Strategic adaptation through the experimental project to form air defense groups within territorial communities' volunteer formations.
- Logistical Streamlining: DeepState reports on Brave1 Market and DOT-Chain Defence platforms for faster drone/EW procurement. Actively fundraising for anti-thermal cloaks.
- Tactical Engagement: Continued effective use of FPV drones. Successful urban combat and clearing operations by special forces. Successful destruction of RUF air defense and armored systems. Use of drone drops against RUF rear positions. Commanders on the Kramatorsk axis are advised to prepare contingency plans for troop rotation. General Staff of UAF released a video showing the 36th Separate Marine Brigade performing amphibious assault training. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade repelled a RUF assault on Toretsk direction, involving a "Tsar-tank." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of 68th Separate Jaeger Brigade clearing fortifications. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports "OMEGA-WEST" special forces unit conducted a successful clearing operation in a multi-story building, indicating adaptive urban combat tactics. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shares photos of soldiers training, emphasizing the ongoing adaptation and readiness of personnel. Сили оборони Півдня України shares video of effective cooperation between artillery and drones from Dnipro Battalion with pilots of RUBPAK 108th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade. UPDATED: DSHV calls for donations for "Optical Rusorez" (reconnaissance and attack drones), indicating adaptive fundraising for specific tactical capabilities. (Source: STERNENKO). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports UAF successfully repelled a Russian assault in Chasiv Yar, destroying an armored vehicle and its crew. (Source: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). UAF tactical adaptation to counter RUF FPV drone operations on key supply routes, as observed near Kramatorsk-Dobropillia. (Source: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Information Counter-Offensive: Proactive and transparent public reporting on RUF attacks, emphasizing civilian impacts and casualties. Rapidly debunking RUF chemical weapon disinformation campaigns. Confirming SBU Colonel assassination with open criminal case. Highlighting UAF air defense effectiveness and securing of additional Patriot systems. Showcasing UAF military successes. Emphasizing international support and financial aid. Utilizing social media to boost morale. Ukrainian officials providing direct public addresses. Highlighting UN report confirming increased civilian casualties. Promoting the shift from Russian to Ukrainian language. Actively highlighting severe weather impacts in Western Ukraine to counter RUF disinformation. Continuously reporting on diplomatic engagements. RBC-Ukraine reports Trump will use his authority to send weapons to Ukraine for the first time. The Office of the Prosecutor General informed suspicion to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev for war crimes. RBC-Ukraine reports searches on ex-minister Kubrakov. Ukrainian channels continue to report on the liquidations of high-ranking RUF officers, including brigade commanders, as a morale booster and indicator of success. The Office of the Prosecutor General highlights internal anti-corruption efforts as a demonstration of good governance and accountability. UAF channels immediately counter RUF narratives on the Odesa TCC strike by emphasizing the civilian impact of RUF drone attacks and the injuries to infants in Kharkiv. UAF also provides information on legal processes for mobilization, likely to counter RUF disinformation regarding illegal methods. Zelenskiy / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА are proactively distributing images of civilian casualties and damage, including children, to highlight RUF brutality and maintain international pressure. RBC-Україна reports on "danger of UAVs" in occupied Crimea, attempting to project UAF capabilities. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ emphasizes internal military improvements based on soldier feedback ("Армія+"), countering RUF narratives of disarray. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 highlights social support for defenders. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports suspicion to a People's Deputy, reinforcing the anti-corruption narrative and rule of law. Оперативний ЗСУ highlighting Zaluzhny's article on security alliances, projecting strategic foresight and international engagement. Zelenskiy / Official's tribute to a Ukrainian composer reinforces national identity and cultural resilience. UAF counters RUF air defense claims by highlighting civilian aircraft over Kyiv (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Военкор Котенок, Alex Parker Returns, Fighterbomber, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UAF counters RUF narratives on manpower by highlighting the success of "Rerezerv+" app and addressing internal accountability issues with MP Shevchenko's suspicion (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). UAF actively highlights child evacuations and humanitarian support as a counter-narrative to RUF aggression (Source: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)). Kharkiv's head of ODA provides transparent operational updates, countering RUF disinformation (Source: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА). UPDATED: UAF channels are leveraging the Orsk Mechanical Plant fire to support narratives of successful UAF deep strikes against Russian military industry. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ). UAF milblogger uses a sarcastic caption on a photo message from a RUF channel implying internal conflict between Russian units, to undermine RUF cohesion. (Source: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦). UAF media highlights the humanitarian impact of flooding in Lviv (Source: РБК-Україна) to garner support and attention to internal challenges. UAF channels highlight civilian support activities (Sobi Club) to counter narratives of despair and promote resilience. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). UAF media actively reports on high numbers of Russian UAVs shot down to demonstrate effectiveness and combat RUF propaganda of aerial superiority. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UAF uses statements from international partners (Keith Kellogg's visit, Trump's statements) to reinforce positive diplomatic narratives. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, STERNENKO). RBC-Ukraine adapting to discuss new drone combat stages, indicating strategic foresight. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Resource Mobilization: Successfully leveraging public donations for tactical drones and unit sustainment. Securing significant international financial and military aid.
- Internal Governance: Ongoing adaptation and focus on internal anti-corruption and law enforcement. Proactive addressing of military medicine issues. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports stopping illegal sand extraction in Kyiv Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports searches on ex-minister Kubrakov. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports new charges in a case of supplying low-quality clothing to UAF, indicating a functioning judicial oversight and C2 to address internal corruption. Олександр Вілкул's public statements and images about "reconstruct better than it was" indicate an adaptive focus on long-term recovery and building resilience, countering RUF destruction. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 highlights housing compensation for defenders, indicating adaptive social support initiatives. RBC-Ukraine reports Kubrakov reacted to information about searches, indicating transparency and accountability. Adaptive streamlining of administrative processes for mobilization/registration through "Rerezerv+" app (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). MP Shevchenko's new suspicion in fertilizer fraud case highlights ongoing internal accountability (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). UPDATED: Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons organizes recreational event for children of defenders, indicating adaptive welfare and morale-building efforts. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration highlights educational trips for schoolchildren as part of overall civilian welfare efforts. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons is meeting with families of missing soldiers, demonstrating adaptive support for military personnel families. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RUF:
- Deep Strike Munitions: Sustained, high-volume, multi-domain deep strike capabilities indicate robust production/procurement for ballistic missiles and Shahed drones. New Su-34 deliveries support continued KAB/KAR use. Development and deployment of UMPB D-30SN glide bombs. Introduction of updated Lancet loitering munitions. Resumption of SCALP missile production by France (reported by RUF) will impact long-term Ukrainian deep strike capabilities, forcing RUF to adapt. The high consumption of anti-aircraft missiles (as noted by "Старше Эдды") and the continuous commitment to high-volume aerial attacks may put pressure on RUF's own deep strike munitions inventory in the long term, despite current high levels. ТАСС reports that Russian troops conducted 6 group strikes with high-precision weapons, including Kinzhal missiles, against military targets in Ukraine over the past week, confirming high-value munition expenditure. UPDATED: Fire at Orsk Mechanical Plant, a major producer of artillery shells, could significantly impact RUF artillery ammunition supply in the mid-to-long term if damage is substantial. (Source: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ). Continued use of older artillery shells indicated by footage (Source: Басурин о главном), suggesting ongoing reliance on stockpiles. Sever.Realii reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense may send its only aircraft carrier, "Admiral Kuznetsov," to the scrapyard, indicating significant material loss or maintenance challenges in naval sustainment. (Source: Север.Реалии). Potential ban on gasoline exports could affect domestic fuel availability and thus military logistics. (Source: ТАСС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Tactical Supply Chain: Evidence of tactical shortfalls, with continued reliance on public donations for certain equipment. However, sustained ground operations imply functioning supply lines for ammunition and fuel. Recruitment of detainees and electronic conscription aim to address manpower sustainment. "Старше Эдды" comments on high anti-aircraft missile consumption. Colonelcassad shows a NRTK "Courier" robot delivering cargo to assault teams, indicating innovation in logistics. Drills by military signalmen of 44th Army Corps for secure communication deployment suggest an ongoing effort to improve logistical support for forward units. Alex Parker Returns reports that a ban on migrant workers in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast was lifted due to labor shortages in public catering, hotels, taxis, and cleaning, indicating a reliance on migrant labor for critical sectors which could impact overall economic sustainment. Ongoing public fundraising efforts for military units indicate reliance on non-state support for tactical sustainment. (Source: Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Internal Challenges: Persistent internal issues (forest fires, oil spills, water poisoning, banking failures, internal crime, corruption, misuse of military assets) could strain long-term resource allocation. Steam platform experiencing outages. The VDV cadet killing a commander highlights potential internal morale/discipline issues. Water poisoning in Dagestan affecting 372 people, mostly children, represents a significant internal health and logistical challenge. TASS reports seizing of shares from "Yuzhurazoloto" by Prosecutor General's Office may impact industrial output. Russian publication "Верстка" reports low willingness of detained criminals to go to the front, indicating potential shortfalls in penal recruitment (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Russia's total confirmed deaths exceed 118,000, signaling significant manpower losses (Source: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники). UPDATED: Lugansk residents facing water outages due to power substation repairs during heatwave, indicating civilian infrastructure and quality of life constraints in occupied territories. (Source: Mash на Донбассе). TASS reports a prosecutor is seeking a 10-year sentence for former head of GABTU Ministry of Defense's utilization service, Timofeev, for large-scale bribery, indicating ongoing corruption within the MOD and a drain on resources. (Source: ТАСС). ASTRA reports the Prosecutor General's Office wants to recover nearly 1 billion rubles from the organizers of defensive structures on the Belgorod border with Ukraine due to alleged financial irregularities, indicating systemic corruption and resource mismanagement. (Source: ASTRA). Новости Москвы reports on alternative cancer treatments in regions, which may indicate resource limitations or public health challenges. (Source: Новости Москвы). Tick bite cases in Moscow region are a public health concern that could indirectly strain medical resources. (Source: Новости Москвы). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF:
- Air Defense Munitions: CRITICAL AND IMMEDIATE CONSTRAINT. High expenditure rate from prolonged, multi-vector and high-volume RUF aerial attacks places extreme strain on interceptor stockpiles. Recent aid announcements are crucial but require consistent delivery. The constant threat of ballistic missiles and multiple UAV groups across various oblasts further exacerbates the need for air defense munitions, especially with potentially 20 drones over Ukraine at any given time. Successful neutralization of drones in Dnipropetrovsk indicates continuous consumption. The continued engagement of UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast underscores this continuous requirement. High interception rate of 44/79 drones underscores high consumption rate of ADMs (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна). UPDATED: The new record of 268 Russian UAVs shot down by "Trojka" air defense units in a month, while a success, signifies an extremely high rate of ADM consumption. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Medical/Emergency Services: Under strain due to increased civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. UAF General Staff acknowledges "problematic issues" in military medicine. Injuries to infants in Kharkiv and a civilian fatality in Zaporizhzhia, along with widespread flooding in Lviv Oblast, further strain medical and emergency services. The 8 injured in Odesa add to this burden. Civilian fatality in Stepnohirsk community due to shelling adds to the medical and emergency burden. A horse killed, several injured at a stable in Odesa further strain emergency services and veterinary care. Ongoing efforts to relocate children from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to safer regions like Zakarpattia indicate a sustained requirement for humanitarian logistics and support (Source: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)). UPDATED: Number of injured in Odesa drone attack rises to 9, increasing medical burden. (Source: РБК-Україна). Zaporizhzhia schoolchildren's educational trip indicates some civilian support structures are functional but also that resources are being allocated to maintain a semblance of normalcy. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). The meeting of the Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons, addressing missing soldiers, highlights the ongoing need for administrative and psychological support for military families. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). Civilian animal casualties in Odesa add to the burden on emergency and veterinary services. (Source: STERNENKO). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Financial Sustainment: Continued critical requirement for external financial support. Receipt of EU tranches and Norwegian aid. STERNENKO's urgent night appeal highlights immediate financial needs. STERNENKO reports 41 million UAH collected out of 50 million needed, highlighting the ongoing financial requirement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Tactical Equipment: Continued reliance on external (volunteer/donor) support for tactical drones and power solutions. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shared photos of "UAF Fiber Optics," which may represent a domestic production or procurement for communication. STERNENKO's report on 41 million UAH collected out of 50 million needed for anti-thermal cloaks indicates an ongoing and high requirement for public fundraising for specific equipment. UPDATED: DSHV calls for donations for "Optical Rusorez" (reconnaissance and attack drones), indicating an ongoing high requirement for specialized tactical equipment and continued reliance on fundraising. (Source: STERNENKO). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Force Rotation & Rest: Critical need for contingency plans for troop rotation and rest, especially in Chasiv Yar.
- CONSTRAINT: Digital Infrastructure Reliability: "Rerezerv+" app outage highlights vulnerability. "Rerezerv+" app now functional for fine payments, indicating some improvement in digital infrastructure (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
- CONSTRAINT: Internal Public Safety: Localized incidents like the knife attack on a doctor in Zaporizhzhia indicate underlying social issues. The accusation against a UAF lieutenant colonel and Kyiv Metro tunnel destruction suggest internal integrity and infrastructure constraints. New charges in a high-profile case of low-quality military clothing supply (1.16 billion UAH damages) highlight ongoing internal logistical and integrity constraints. Severe flooding in Lviv Oblast adds a significant burden to emergency services and infrastructure, diverting resources that might otherwise be used for war-related efforts. MP Shevchenko's new suspicion in fertilizer fraud highlights ongoing internal integrity and trust constraints (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RUF: Highly effective C2 for coordinating complex, multi-domain, protracted aerial strikes. Effective tactical C2 for frontline operations and drone use. Demonstrates effective C2 for counter-intelligence, internal security, and information operations. Evidence of C2 for regional military cooperation. Strong C2 for forced manpower generation. Commitment of 83rd AAB shows effective C2 for reserve deployment. Daily operational summaries from milbloggers suggest coordinated information dissemination. C2 appears effective in adapting to new mobile drone launch platforms. Colonelcassad's video on 25th CAA establishing a wireless link indicates C2 efforts to improve tactical communications. The successful liquidation of UAF positions and PVDs near Yablonovka further highlights effective tactical C2 for precision strikes. However, the VDV cadet killing a commander highlights a potential severe C2 failure at the training/leadership level. Putin receiving operational reports on Belgorod, frequently calling Gladkov, demonstrates high-level C2 engagement. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shows C2 for award ceremonies. High-level RUF casualties (liquidated Major General and Colonels in Kursk) indicate UAF success in targeting RUF C2 nodes, which could impact RUF tactical C2 effectiveness in specific sectors, especially the 155th Marine Brigade's operations. MoD Russia's drills on deploying secure communication means for assault detachments indicate an ongoing effort to strengthen tactical C2 effectiveness and resilience under battlefield conditions. TASS reporting on UAF troop concentrations suggests effective RUF ISR and C2 for force tracking. The confirmed detention of Ukrainian agents by FSB (Colonelcassad) demonstrates effective counter-intelligence C2. The confirmed liquidation of Captain 2nd Rank Shipunov Oleksandr, Head of Staff, Communication and Troop Management for 155th Guards Marine Brigade (Оперативний ЗСУ), further indicates UAF success in targeting RUF C2, potentially impacting communication effectiveness within this brigade. Russian MoD video of Zelena Dolyna shows C2 over troop movements, artillery strikes, and symbolic flag-raising (Source: ТАСС, Басурин о главном). UPDATED: RUF C2 demonstrates ability to manage and publicize civilian events (Bryansk Field Day) as part of broader efforts to project normalcy and stability. (Source: AV БогомаZ). RUF C2 is able to leverage civilian events to portray high-level engagement (Igor Artamonov in Lipetsk). (Source: Игорь Артамонов). RUF C2 demonstrates ability to manage internal corruption cases and asset seizures, as seen with Timofeev's prosecution and Yuzhurazoloto's nationalization. (Source: ТАСС). RUF C2 is evident in the ongoing development and promotion of drone technology, as indicated by the "Dronnitsa" meeting. (Source: Филолог в засаде). RUF C2 is demonstrating efforts to manage internal narratives related to alleged financial irregularities in defensive construction. (Source: ASTRA). RUF C2 is evident in the proactive management of domestic fuel supply concerns. (Source: ТАСС). RUF C2 appears effective in coordinating internal military media and propaganda, as seen with WarGonzo and "Zona SVO" posts. (Source: WarGonzo, «Зона СВО»). RUF C2 for internal security is demonstrated by actions taken against the "Revolt-center" in Syktyvkar. (Source: ASTRA). RUF C2 appears to be effective in coordinating civilian support for military operations. (Source: Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF: Highly effective C2 for coordinating nationwide air defense responses, managing local civilian emergency responses, and conducting BDA. Effective tactical C2 for frontline situational awareness, combat operations, and drone deployment. Demonstrates effective C2 for internal governance and for leveraging international financial and military support. Strategic communication C2 is strong. Proactive C2 for addressing military medicine challenges. Advising commanders on contingency plans for troop rotation indicates effective adaptation within C2. Zelenskyy's continuous engagement with international partners demonstrates strong diplomatic C2. Air Force updates on drone activity confirm active monitoring and C2. The prompt reporting and subsequent lifting of the ballistic missile threat demonstrate effective early warning and C2. DeepState's "Top-10 units" recognition system suggests effective internal C2. The prompt report and neutralization claim for UAVs in Mykolaiv suburbs shows effective C2 for local air defense. UAF General Staff provides updated operational information. KMA has launched a full-fledged system for intercepting enemy drones flying into Kyiv. The Office of the Prosecutor General informed suspicion to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev for war crimes. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that a lieutenant colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been notified of suspicion for causing 25.5 million hryvnias in damages. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports stopping illegal sand extraction in Kyiv Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports searches on ex-minister Kubrakov. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports new charges in a case of supplying low-quality clothing to UAF, indicating a functioning judicial oversight and C2 to address internal corruption. The immediate reporting and swift cancellation of ballistic missile threats by UAF Air Force demonstrates highly effective and responsive C2 within the air defense network. Legal information on "wanted" persons shared by Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 indicates a proactive C2 for public information and mobilization enforcement. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's "Армія+" survey indicates adaptive C2 for internal feedback and force improvement. OTU "Kharkiv" reporting updates suggest continuous C2 for localized operational information. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports suspicion to a People's Deputy, demonstrating continued C2 for internal accountability. Оперативний ЗСУ highlighting Zaluzhny's article on security alliances, indicates C2 for strategic communication at a high level. UAF C2 effectively manages civilian population movements for safety, as shown by children evacuation to Zakarpattia (Source: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)). C2 evident in Kharkov's head reporting on combat operations, casualty figures, and recovery efforts (Source: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА). UPDATED: UAF C2 demonstrated in the prompt alert for ballistic missile threat across multiple regions. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна). UAF C2 shown in managing recreational events for children of defenders, supporting morale and welfare. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). UAF C2 is effective in managing and publicizing successful air defense operations, such as the new record for UAV shootdowns. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UAF C2 is demonstrating strategic engagement with international partners, as seen with Kellogg's announced trip to Kyiv. (Source: РБК-Україна). UAF C2 is actively addressing ongoing personnel and family support issues, as seen in the meeting with families of missing soldiers. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). UAF C2 for public information on casualties and humanitarian efforts is strong, as demonstrated by STERNENKO's reporting on Odesa stable attack. (Source: STERNENKO). UAF C2 is demonstrated in proactively addressing threats from jet attacks with new drone combat strategies. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Force Posture: UAF maintains a critical and active air defense network defending against complex, multi-vector, and prolonged RUF aerial attacks across the country, especially in Kyiv and Western Oblasts. New RUF strike UAV groups targeting Kharkiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, Sumy, Lipetsk Oblast, Tula Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and Odesa will stretch this network further. Frontline units are holding defensive positions and conducting active engagements across multiple axes. Maintaining capability for deep drone strikes into Russia and logistics interdiction. Southern Defense Forces are postured for active defense. Posture of decentralized air defense through volunteer groups. UAF special forces are postured for urban combat. Air Force is on high alert for ballistic missile threats. UAF Air Force is currently tracking multiple RUF UAVs across Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kirovohrad Oblasts, indicating a widespread defensive posture. The confirmed strikes on Odesa TCC suggest UAF forces are postured to defend urban administrative/recruitment centers against asymmetric threats. UAF Air Force estimates up to 20 drones are currently over Ukraine, requiring a high state of air defense readiness. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України's posts about ongoing training reinforce a posture of continuous readiness and adaptation. UAF maintains active air defense posture with successful interceptions of 44/79 UAVs (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна). UPDATED: UAF air defense demonstrating a new record of 268 Russian UAVs shot down in a month highlights a high operational tempo and readiness. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UAF appears to be postured for counter-UAS operations against RUF FPV drones, as seen by engagements near Kramatorsk-Dobropillia. (Source: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦). UAF is preparing a strategic response to jet attacks, indicating a forward-looking and adaptive posture against evolving aerial threats. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Readiness: High state of readiness demonstrated by rapid and sustained air defense responses to the intensified, prolonged Kyiv attack. Emergency services at high readiness for civilian response. Continuous tactical medical training enhances combat readiness. Units actively engaged across multiple front lines, facing high attrition and potential exhaustion, particularly in Chasiv Yar. Personnel welfare and rehabilitation programs ongoing. Enhanced procurement processes for drones/EW systems aim to maintain tactical readiness. Readiness for deep strike operations into Russian territory is maintained. The successful clearing operation by "OMEGA-WEST" special forces unit indicates high readiness for complex urban combat scenarios. The ongoing training captured by Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України highlights continuous efforts to maintain and improve combat readiness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:
- Air Defense: High effectiveness with 178/415 targets shot down during Kyiv attack. Successful interceptions over Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy. Ukraine securing commitments for more Patriot systems. Zelenskyy claims Ukraine has found a solution to shoot down "almost all" UAVs. UAF claims neutralization of all incoming UAVs in Mykolaiv area. UAF Air Defense shot down 3 UAVs over Smolensk Oblast. UAF drone activity resulted in temporary suspension of Pulkovo Airport operations. UAF drone attack on Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant near Moscow. STERNENKO reports repeat drone attacks on Kronstadt UAV production facility in Dubna, Moscow Oblast. KMA has launched a full-fledged system for intercepting enemy drones flying into Kyiv. UAF Air Force called off ballistic missile threat, indicating successful threat detection and/or neutralization. UAF Air Force estimates successful tracking of "about 20 drones" over Ukraine, showing continued vigilance. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports a successful drone neutralization. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports means engaged to shoot down UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF successfully intercepted 44/79 RUF UAVs (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна). UPDATED: Ballistic missile threat alert across multiple Ukrainian oblasts. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна). UAF Air Force reports termination of ballistic missile threat. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). Zaporizhzhia OVA reports termination of air raid siren. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). UAF air defense claims a new record of 268 Russian UAVs shot down in a month. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UAF Air Force reports 44 UAVs shot down. (Source: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ). TASS reports Russian air defense shot down a Ukrainian drone over the Black Sea, which, while reported by RUF, indicates UAF drone activity over the Black Sea. (Source: ТАСС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Deep Strikes: Successful drone strike on Penza power substation (initial report, now conflicting). Continued deep strike attempts into Moscow. Air danger regime in Lipetsk lifted. Successful drone strikes on Russian logistics and RUF rear positions. Successful drone strikes on production facilities of a major agro-holding in Kursk Oblast. ASTRA reports a large number of explosions in Tula Oblast. UAF drone fell on a farm in Khlevensky district, Lipetsk Oblast, causing a fire. ASTRA reports damage to a "regional enterprise" in Orlov Oblast, suggesting another successful deep strike. ASTRA confirms attack on Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant and collapse of compressor station wall. Drone footage from Kursk Oblast shows UAF successful strike against a ground target, implying tactical success (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). UPDATED: Fire reported at Orsk Mechanical Plant, which produces artillery shells, indicating a potential successful deep strike against Russian military industry. (Source: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Attrition of RUF Forces: UAF General Staff reports significant RUF losses (1040 personnel killed on 11 JUL 2025, 2 tanks, 7 AFVs, 23 artillery systems, and 14 cruise missiles). Successful strikes by UAF Southern Defense Forces. Destruction of numerous RUF high-value equipment on Zaporizhzhia front. Repelling 14 Russian assaults in Kursk/Sumy. Successful FPV drone strikes in Dobropillia. UAF soldier liquidated Russian motorcyclist and captured bike in Pokrovsk direction. Friendly forces inflicting heavy casualties on attacking formations in Kharkiv direction. SBS/74th ORB destroyed a Buk and Strela anti-aircraft missile system and other armored vehicles in Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk border area. Colonel Sergey Ilyin, commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, was liquidated on July 2. STERNENKO shares video of another RUF assault in Donetsk Oblast, resulting in "negative advance" for enemy forces. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the liquidation of two additional RUF Colonels (Sergey Ilyin, Commander of 155th Marine Brigade; Leonid Bashkardin, Chief of Staff of the Brigade) along with Major General Mikhail Gudkov and Colonel Nariman Shikhaliev from a missile strike on a command post in Korenevo, Kursk Oblast. This indicates a significant UAF success in targeting RUF senior leadership and C2 nodes. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares photos of "successfully demobilized" (killed) RUF personnel, continuing the trend of publicizing RUF losses. The confirmation of Sergey Ilyin's burial by RUF milbloggers further substantiates his liquidation, highlighting a significant blow to RUF command. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms liquidation of Captain 2nd Rank Shipunov Oleksandr, Head of Staff, Communication and Troop Management for 155th Guards Marine Brigade, adding to the confirmed attrition of high-value RUF command personnel. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the liquidation of the commander of the 155th Marine Brigade, Sergey Ilyin, in Kursk Oblast during a strike. (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports UAF successfully repelled a Russian assault in Chasiv Yar, destroying an armored vehicle and its crew. (Source: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition reports the liquidation of Captain Vladislav Yakovenko, commander of a sabotage and reconnaissance group from the 140th SSO Center of the AFU, by forces of the "Sever" Group, which is a success for UAF counter-sabotage efforts. (Source: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- International Aid: Resumption of 155mm artillery shells and GMLRS rockets. Trump approved some Ukrainian arms requests. Germany ready to purchase two additional Patriot systems. UK agreement to supply over 5000 Thales-produced anti-aircraft missiles. Finland provided 300 million euros for recovery. Netherlands provided 300 million euros. UK Defense Minister John Healey stated the UK is ready to send troops to Ukraine for a potential ceasefire, indicating strong international political will. (Source: Воин DV). Kellogg announced his trip to Kyiv, indicating continued diplomatic support. (Source: РБК-Україна). UPDATED: Keith Kellogg, special envoy of Trump, will visit Kyiv on July 14 and stay for a week. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, STERNENKO). RBC-Ukraine reports Ukraine is preparing a response to jet attacks, indicating continued international support for advanced capabilities. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Internal Governance: Anti-corruption and counter-sabotage operations. Law enforcement successes. The Office of the Prosecutor General informed suspicion to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev for war crimes. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that a lieutenant colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been notified of suspicion for causing 25.5 million hryvnias in damages. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports stopping illegal sand extraction in Kyiv Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports searches on ex-minister Kubrakov. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports new charges in a case of supplying low-quality clothing to UAF, with damages of 1.16 billion UAH, demonstrating ongoing efforts to maintain accountability. Олександр Вілкул's public statements about "reconstruct better than it was" (Відновити краще ніж було) represent a strategic success in framing the post-war future and maintaining national morale. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on the "Армія+" survey, indicating efforts to improve military support and well-being based on feedback, a positive internal development. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports suspicion notified to a People's Deputy of Ukraine. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on Valeriy Zaluzhny's article on Ukraine's strategy in building security alliances. The "Rerezerv+" app now allows online fine payments, indicating a successful streamlining of administrative processes (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). MP Shevchenko's new suspicion in fertilizer fraud case signals continued internal accountability (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). Zaporizhzhia schoolchildren's educational trip indicates a successful continuation of civilian life and educational support. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). The Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons' meeting with families of missing soldiers demonstrates effective welfare support. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Setbacks:
- Civilian Casualties & Infrastructure Damage: Direct hits on civilian infrastructure in Kyiv resulting in 2 killed, 28 injured. Civilian casualties in Dnipropetrovsk (1 killed), Zaporizhzhia (2 injured), Donetsk (9 killed, 10 injured). 11 Kharkiv settlements struck. Explosions reported in Chuhuiv, with two private households destroyed. Hospital attacked in Chuhuiv, 3 injured. Night attack on Chuhuivskyi district resulted in 7 UAV hits. Strikes on Kharkiv city center, residential areas, and a working medical facility in Kharkiv City, with 9 injured. One man injured in Kharkiv. Two people injured in Kharkiv. RUF Shahed hit a three-story building in Saltivskyi district. Three injured in Saltyvskyi district, Kharkiv. Maternity hospital affected in Kharkiv. UN report of 232 civilians killed in Ukraine in June. Civilian killed and one injured in Lipetsk Oblast. A 48-year-old man injured in Zaporizhzhia Raion. Agricultural enterprise damaged and fire caused by RUF UAV strike in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. One person killed, one injured in Tula Oblast. Four people injured in Kursk Oblast. Explosions reported in Odesa due to drone attack. RUF confirms strike on Odesa TCC, which, regardless of target, causes public distress and indicates continued targeting of urban areas. Damage to a civilian car service building in Odesa, as reported by ASTRA, further underscores civilian impact. A 71-year-old woman was killed in Polohivskyi Raion, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, due to an enemy attack, representing another civilian casualty. Three infants were injured in Kharkiv after drone attacks, causing significant public distress. 230 houses flooded in Lviv Oblast due to extreme rainfall, compounding the humanitarian burden and challenging resource allocation. 8 individuals injured in Odesa night attack. ASTRA reports 7 people killed and 9 injured in Donetsk Oblast on July 10, indicating continuous civilian losses. RUF strike on Odesa TCC (as confirmed by multiple RUF channels) results in an immediate setback in force generation capacity for that area, and has a demoralizing effect. 58-year-old man killed in Stepnohirsk community, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, due to enemy shelling. A horse killed, several injured at a stable in Odesa. UPDATED: Number of injured in Odesa drone attack rises to 9. (Source: РБК-Україна). Video shows extensive damage, injured animals (horses, dog), and rescue personnel in Odesa after drone attack. (Source: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦). The "Privoz" market image from Odesa, while unconfirmed as directly conflict-related, suggests a backdrop of continued civilian hardship or disruption. (Source: Два майора). Civilian animal casualties in Odesa (dead horse, injured animals) are a significant setback impacting public morale and requiring emergency services. (Source: STERNENKO). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Internal Security: Assassination of SBU Colonel Ivan Voronich in Kyiv. Public safety incident in Zaporizhzhia. Potential new threat from alleged poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia. Reported liquidation of a UAF SSO group commander is a setback for special operations capabilities.
- Resource Strain: "Rerezerv+" app outage impacting personnel management. Slowdown in some public drone fundraising. Electricity deficit in Kyiv due to heat. High risk of tactical breakthrough in Chasiv Yar due to friendly unit exhaustion. Over 100 FPV drones launched by enemy on Dobropillia could indicate increased FPV threat. TASS reports UAF retreat from Zelena Dolyna. Kyiv Metro tunnel destruction suggests internal infrastructure issues. Civilian vehicles being targeted by RUF FPV drones near Kramatorsk-Dobropillia indicates a threat to civilian movement and logistics in critical areas. (Source: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Air Defense Munitions: Immediate and sustained supply of interceptors due to high expenditure rate from prolonged, multi-vector attacks. Delivery timelines for Patriot systems are key. The constant threat of ballistic missiles and multiple UAV groups across various oblasts further exacerbates the need for air defense munitions, especially with potentially 20 drones over Ukraine at any given time. Successful neutralization of drones in Dnipropetrovsk indicates continuous consumption. The continued engagement of UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast underscores this continuous requirement. High interception rate of 44/79 drones underscores continuous high consumption of ADMs (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна). UPDATED: The new record of 268 Russian UAVs shot down in a month highlights an extremely high rate of ADM consumption. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Medical and Emergency Response: Immediate surge capacity for medical personnel and emergency services in affected urban areas. Managing increased casualties (Kyiv, Chuhuiv, Kharkiv, Lipetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Tula, Kursk, Odesa, Donetsk). Injuries to infants in Kharkiv and a fatality in Zaporizhzhia, alongside widespread flooding in Lviv Oblast, emphasize the critical and sustained need for emergency and medical resources. The 8 injured in Odesa add to this burden. The civilian fatality in Stepnohirsk community reinforces this critical need. A horse killed, several injured at a stable in Odesa further strain emergency and veterinary services. Ongoing efforts to relocate children from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to safer regions like Zakarpattia indicate a sustained requirement for humanitarian logistics and support (Source: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)). UPDATED: Number of injured in Odesa drone attack rises to 9, increasing demand for medical resources. (Source: РБК-Україна). The ongoing support for families of missing soldiers highlights the continuous need for psychological and administrative support resources. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). Civilian animal casualties in Odesa require emergency and veterinary support. (Source: STERNENKO). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Financial Sustainment: Continued external financial support to maintain non-military operations and long-term recovery. STERNENKO's urgent night appeal highlights immediate financial needs. STERNENKO reports 41 million UAH collected out of 50 million needed, highlighting the ongoing financial requirement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
HIGH REQUIREMENT: Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) and Repair: Resources for rapid BDA, recovery, and repair of damaged civilian and critical infrastructure.
HIGH REQUIREMENT: Tactical Drones/Power Equipment/Protection: Consistent supply of various drone types and associated power solutions. Immediate need for anti-thermal protection. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shared photos of "UAF Fiber Optics," implying a focus on communication infrastructure. UPDATED: DSHV calls for donations for "Optical Rusorez" (reconnaissance and attack drones), indicating an ongoing high requirement for specialized tactical equipment and continued reliance on fundraising. (Source: STERNENKO). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
HIGH REQUIREMENT: Force Rotation & Rest: Critical need for contingency plans for troop rotation and rest, especially in Chasiv Yar.
HIGH REQUIREMENT: Counter-UAS/EW: Deployment of additional Counter-UAS and EW assets, particularly to Chasiv Yar.
HIGH REQUIREMENT: Engineering & Obstacle Materials: Pre-positioning engineering and obstacle-laying assets in Kharkiv.
CONSTRAINT: Public Fundraising Fluctuation: Potential slowdown in public donations for certain equipment.
CONSTRAINT: Digital Infrastructure Reliability: "Rerezerv+" app outage highlights vulnerability. "Rerezerv+" app now operational for fines, easing a previous constraint on digital infrastructure (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
CONSTRAINT: Internal Public Safety: Localized incidents like the knife attack on a doctor in Zaporizhzhia. Internal corruption cases regarding military supply (e.g., low-quality clothing) pose a constraint on force sustainment and public trust. Severe flooding in Lviv Oblast adds a significant burden to emergency services and infrastructure, diverting resources that might otherwise be used for war-related efforts. MP Shevchenko's new suspicion in fertilizer fraud highlights ongoing internal integrity and trust constraints (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RUF Narratives: Immediately and widely amplifying "Kyiv got what it deserved" narratives, visually showcasing damage, and downplaying severity. Claiming strikes on Kyiv's military-industrial complex and airfields. Propagating highly inflammatory and false chemical weapons claims. Fabricating UAF desertion claims, and claims of UAF abandoning wounded soldiers. Accusing UAF of attacking civilians and highlighting restoration efforts in Belgorod. Highlighting claimed military successes (e.g., Zelena Dolyna liberation, Sobolevka liberation, Bessalovka capture). Using alleged SBU Colonel assassination to portray internal Ukrainian instability. Attempting to externalize blame for the assassination. Leveraging captured UAF POWs for propaganda. Amplifying flooding in Western Ukraine as divine retribution. Highlighting internal Russian stability. Portraying Western aid as insufficient or escalatory. Russian state media like TASS and MoD Russia are actively reporting on Ukrainian UAV shootdowns over Russian territory. TASS reports Trump's statement that NATO allies will pay for US weapons for Ukraine and his upcoming statement on Russia. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares Trump's statements about being "disappointed with Russia" and NATO paying for US weapons, indicating continued high-level US diplomatic engagement and potential shifts in policy. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares video of Pentagon Head Hegset announcing "era of American drone dominance," signaling US commitment to advanced drone technology and potentially aid to Ukraine. Kellogg announced his trip to Kyiv, indicating continued high-level visits and diplomatic support for Ukraine. (Source: РБК-Україна). UPDATED: Keith Kellogg, special envoy of Trump, will visit Kyiv on July 14 and stay for a week. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, STERNENKO). RUF milbloggers are quick to claim successful strikes on UAF TCCs (Territorial Recruitment Centers), leveraging these as propaganda points. RUF channels are attempting to cultivate narratives of local Ukrainian populations "thanking" them for strikes against UAF targets. RUF milbloggers are actively posting confirmation and images of the Odesa TCC strike, claiming it as a successful operation. Lavrov's public statements continue to push the narrative of Europe's historical amnesia and aggressive stance towards Russia. RUF is amplifying narratives of widespread Ukrainian desertion and forced mobilization. RUF channels are portraying themselves as "doing good" for people, even when conducting strikes against TCCs. Alex Parker Returns attempts to discredit US political figures (Trump) by comparing them to dictators to undermine Western support. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 promotes the narrative that Zaluzhny is begging for expired missiles from the US, aimed at undermining UAF morale and credibility. Alex Parker Returns also highlights alleged corruption within the Russian military by senior officials. TASS reports Peskov emphasizing continued work on prisoner exchanges and negotiations, aiming to project reasonableness while also asserting Russia's terms. TASS reports on State Duma legislation regarding foreign agents, signaling tightening control over internal narratives. Alex Parker Returns's content "Все плохо" likely indicates a cynical or defeatist propaganda tone, possibly to manage expectations or highlight perceived Western failures. RUF propaganda highlights Peskov's statements on unacceptable foreign troop deployment near Russian borders to reinforce narratives of external threat and Russian resolve (Source: Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad). RUF milbloggers emphasize low willingness of Russian criminals to go to front as a criticism of their own system, possibly implying Ukraine faces worse issues (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). RUF leverages Viktor Orbán's statements to sow discord among Western allies (Source: Colonelcassad). RUF uses images of civilian aircraft over Kyiv to downplay the ongoing conflict and imply a return to normalcy, potentially undermining Ukrainian claims of constant threat (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Fighterbomber, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UPDATED: RUF propaganda adapts to claim UAF is mining money, toys, and sweets in Kursk, aimed at portraying UAF as targeting civilians maliciously. (Source: ТАСС). Peskov's statement that Brussels is pushing Kyiv to fight to the "last Ukrainian" indicates an intent to portray Ukraine as a puppet and prolonging the war unnecessarily. (Source: ТАСС). RUF propaganda leverages recreational events (Bryansk Field Day) to project normalcy and stability within Russia, countering negative narratives. (Source: AV БогомаZ). RUF propaganda leverages civilian events to show high-level leadership engagement (Lipetsk). (Source: Игорь Артамонов). RUF milblogger uses an image of hands with specific markings/gestures to imply a narrative of betrayal or subversion ("куколды" - cuckolds), intended to foster distrust. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF will use images of civilian interaction at markets (e.g., Privoz in Odesa) to subtly convey a sense of civilian life under duress or disarray, fitting into a broader narrative of Ukrainian instability. (Source: Два майора). RUF will use news of internal Russian medical issues (e.g., cancer treatments with oak bark) to portray a sense of local self-reliance or alternative approaches, potentially deflecting from resource limitations. (Source: Новости Москвы). RUF will use images of Russian officials presenting artifacts of resilience to Putin to reinforce narratives of steadfastness and national unity. (Source: ТАСС). RUF will leverage news of corruption within its own Ministry of Defense to project an image of internal cleansing, while simultaneously using it as a subtle warning against corruption in the context of war. (Source: ТАСС, ASTRA). RUF uses information regarding China's military drills to implicitly align with a narrative of expanding military might or to highlight a perceived threat to the West. (Source: WarGonzo). RUF uses images from Iraq to project an image of anti-terrorism efforts and potentially to influence perceptions of regional stability (Source: Colonelcassad). RUF propaganda adapts to target internal dissent or perceived "traitors" within Russia, as seen with the "Revolt-center" incident. (Source: ASTRA). RUF will use civilian-oriented news, like tick bites in Moscow region, to project normalcy. (Source: Новости Москвы). RUF will highlight internal efforts to ensure fuel supply to project state control and resilience. (Source: ТАСС). RUF will continue to publicize civilian support for the front to demonstrate unity and popular backing. (Source: Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UAF Counter-Narratives: Providing real-time, transparent updates on RUF attacks, emphasizing civilian impacts and casualties. Rapidly debunking RUF chemical weapon disinformation campaigns. Confirming SBU Colonel assassination with open criminal case. Highlighting UAF air defense effectiveness and securing of additional Patriot systems. Showcasing UAF military successes (e.g., RUF officer liquidations, record UAV shootdowns). Emphasizing international support and financial aid. Promoting domestic resilience. Utilizing social media to boost morale. Ukrainian officials providing direct public addresses. Highlighting UN report confirming increased civilian casualties. Promoting the shift from Russian to Ukrainian language. Actively highlighting severe weather impacts in Western Ukraine to counter RUF disinformation. Continuously reporting on diplomatic engagements. RBC-Ukraine reports Trump will use his authority to send weapons to Ukraine for the first time. The Office of the Prosecutor General informed suspicion to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev for war crimes. RBC-Ukraine reports searches on ex-minister Kubrakov. Ukrainian channels continue to report on the liquidations of high-ranking RUF officers, including brigade commanders, as a morale booster and indicator of success. The Office of the Prosecutor General highlights internal anti-corruption efforts as a demonstration of good governance and accountability. UAF channels immediately counter RUF narratives on the Odesa TCC strike by emphasizing the civilian impact of RUF drone attacks and the injuries to infants in Kharkiv. UAF also provides information on legal processes for mobilization, likely to counter RUF disinformation regarding illegal methods. Zelenskiy / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА are proactively distributing images of civilian casualties and damage, including children, to highlight RUF brutality and maintain international pressure. RBC-Україна reports on "danger of UAVs" in occupied Crimea, attempting to project UAF capabilities. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ emphasizes internal military improvements based on soldier feedback ("Армія+"), countering RUF narratives of disarray. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обла обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 highlights social support for defenders. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports suspicion to a People's Deputy, reinforcing the anti-corruption narrative and rule of law. Оперативний ЗСУ highlighting Zaluzhny's article on security alliances, projecting strategic foresight and international engagement. Zelenskiy / Official's tribute to a Ukrainian composer reinforces national identity and cultural resilience. UAF counters RUF air defense claims by highlighting civilian aircraft over Kyiv (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Военкор Котенок, Alex Parker Returns, Fighterbomber, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UAF counters RUF narratives on manpower by highlighting the success of "Rerezerv+" app and addressing internal accountability issues with MP Shevchenko's suspicion (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). UAF actively highlights child evacuations and humanitarian support as a counter-narrative to RUF aggression (Source: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)). Kharkiv's head of ODA provides transparent operational updates, countering RUF disinformation (Source: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА). UPDATED: UAF channels are leveraging the Orsk Mechanical Plant fire to support narratives of successful UAF deep strikes against Russian military industry. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ). UAF milblogger uses sarcasm and questions RUF internal cohesion, by commenting on claimed fighting between RUF units. (Source: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦). UAF media highlights the humanitarian impact of flooding in Lviv (Source: РБК-Україна) to garner support and attention to internal challenges. UAF channels highlight civilian support activities (Sobi Club, Zaporizhzhia schoolchildren's trip) to counter narratives of despair and promote resilience. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). UAF channels use news of international diplomatic engagement (Kellogg's trip to Kyiv) to signal continued global support. (Source: РБК-Україна). UAF media actively reports on high numbers of Russian UAVs shot down to demonstrate effectiveness and combat RUF propaganda of aerial superiority. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UAF counters RUF claims of military successes by highlighting RUF FPV drone strikes on civilian infrastructure, such as the Kramatorsk-Dobropillia road. (Source: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦). UAF will counter the Russian narrative of Captain Yakovenko's liquidation by highlighting Russian losses and successes in deep strikes. (Source: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition). UAF media highlights efforts to prepare for new drone combat stages, countering the narrative of being overwhelmed. (Source: РБК-Україна). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Ukrainian Public: High psychological distress, fear, and frustration due to protracted, multi-vector attacks, increased casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure. Lingering smoke and poor air quality prolong tension. Severe flooding in Lviv and Lutsk adds to hardship. Public willing to contribute to war effort through donations. Concern about internal security due to SBU Colonel assassination and the alleged poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia. Morale boosted by air defense successes, international aid, and visual evidence of RUF losses. Public anger evident towards RUF. Marking the Day of Remembrance for Fallen Medics reinforces national resolve. Local public safety incidents could impact local sentiment. Continued strikes on civilian infrastructure, including medical facilities and recruitment centers, will likely intensify public anger and resolve, rather than demoralization. Reports of three injured infants in Kharkiv and a civilian fatality in Zaporizhzhia due to RUF attacks will undoubtedly fuel public outrage and reinforce resolve against the aggressor. The widespread flooding in Lviv Oblast will stress local communities, potentially impacting morale. Public sentiment is likely to be significantly impacted by the strike on the Odesa TCC, reinforcing perceptions of RUF disregard for civilian areas and personnel. The emphasis on internal military improvements (Армія+) and housing compensation for defenders aims to bolster morale and trust. The killing of a horse and injury to others in Odesa from RUF strikes will likely generate additional public sympathy and anger. The meeting of the Coordination Staff for POWs/Missing Persons aims to reassure and support families, positively impacting morale. Public sentiment likely to be impacted by news of children being evacuated to safer regions, highlighting the civilian toll (Source: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)). Public sentiment will be influenced by official reports of military success in downing UAVs (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна). The functionality of "Rerezerv+" for fine payments might positively impact morale by signaling administrative efficiency (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). Ongoing corruption investigations, such as MP Shevchenko's, may cause public frustration but also signal accountability (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). UPDATED: Increased casualties in Odesa (9 injured) will likely increase public distress. (Source: РБК-Україна). Humanitarian efforts for children and caregivers are aimed at boosting morale and trust. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). Public sentiment likely to be positively impacted by continued educational and recreational activities for children, demonstrating resilience and normalcy. (Source: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦). Ongoing efforts to support families of missing soldiers will positively impact morale. (Source: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими). Civilian animal casualties in Odesa will negatively impact public sentiment and morale. (Source: STERNENKO). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Public: Morale boosted by RUF claims of military successes (e.g., Zelena Dolyna liberation, Sobolevka liberation, Bessalovka capture). Mobilization efforts aim to project state control. Internal issues are managed or downplayed by state media. Negative reports about RUF generals indicate internal dissent. Propaganda aims to justify the war and normalize military service. Recognition of high ADM consumption among some milbloggers may indicate concerns about sustainability. Reports of internal ethnic tensions could hint at underlying instability. Calls for increased public assistance to the front indicate a level of ongoing public engagement. The reported VDV cadet killing a commander highlights potential severe internal discipline issues. Military award ceremonies are used to further boost morale. News regarding France resuming SCALP missile production could cause some concern among the informed public regarding the long-term threat to RUF. Public support for "volunteer" efforts (e.g., drones from "volunteers 2.0") demonstrates continued, albeit potentially coerced, public engagement. The public broadcast of military signalmen drills, emphasizing competence and secure communication, aims to bolster public confidence in the armed forces. TASS's framing of Lavrov's statements seeks to reinforce national unity against a perceived external threat. RUF media highlights internal "good news" like the release of a mobilized individual to manage public sentiment around conscription. The burial of Colonel Sergey Ilyin, with military honors, is used to bolster morale and honor fallen soldiers. The Alex Parker Returns content on Belousov's alleged misuse of military aircraft could, if widely known, negatively impact public trust in military leadership. Alex Parker Returns's "Все плохо" posts might tap into cynicism, potentially impacting public morale negatively or reflecting it. The approval of social support for fallen SVO fighters' guardians aims to positively impact public sentiment towards the military. Public sentiment likely impacted by reports of over 118,000 Russian war deaths, potentially leading to morale decline or public pressure (Source: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники). The low willingness of detained criminals to go to the front might reflect public resistance to mobilization tactics, impacting morale (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Public sentiment likely to be influenced by political statements, such as Peskov's comments on foreign troop deployments, intended to rally support against perceived external threats (Source: Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad). Official statements on waiting for Trump's announcement on Russia could indicate public anticipation and a desire for de-escalation (Source: Операция Z). Reports on the nationalization of "Yuzhurazoloto" shares could affect public confidence in the economy and state governance (Source: ASTRA). Civilian events like agricultural festivals are used to project normalcy and stability, aiming to bolster public morale and divert attention from the conflict (Source: AV БогомаZ). UPDATED: Fire at Orsk Mechanical Plant could negatively impact public confidence in industrial safety and military production capacity, if attributed to negligence or sabotage. (Source: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ). TASS reports UAF planted mines in money, toys, and sweets in Kursk. This narrative likely aims to inflame public anger against UAF and increase resolve. (Source: ТАСС). Peskov's statement on Brussels pushing Kyiv to fight to the "last Ukrainian" aims to rally public support by portraying Russia as the reasonable party. (Source: ТАСС). Reports of water outages in Lugansk could impact public morale in occupied territories. (Source: Mash на Донбассе). The "Snoop Dogg" video, seemingly promoting a dance challenge in Russia despite the war, is a propaganda attempt to portray normalcy and a disconnect from the conflict for Russian youth, potentially boosting morale through a sense of cultural engagement. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). Public sentiment influenced by internal corruption cases, as seen by the Timofeev prosecution and the Belgorod defense structure investigation. (Source: ТАСС, ASTRA). The news of "Admiral Kuznetsov" possibly being scrapped could negatively impact naval pride and public perception of military strength. (Source: Север.Реалии). Public sentiment will be influenced by state-controlled media's portrayal of China's military drills, potentially fostering a sense of shared military might or geopolitical alignment. (Source: WarGonzo). Public sentiment may be affected by the "Revolt-center" incident in Syktyvkar, indicating internal social tensions or divisions. (Source: ASTRA). Public sentiment could be influenced by news of domestic fuel export bans, impacting perceptions of economic stability. (Source: ТАСС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

International Reaction to Kyiv Attacks: Expected strong international condemnation, increasing pressure for expedited air defense. Damage to Vatican Embassy may elicit specific diplomatic responses.
US Military Aid: Reuters confirms resumption of 155mm artillery shells and GMLRS rockets. Trump approved some Ukrainian arms requests. Zelenskiy reports "signals about the resumption of aid supplies" after talks with Trump. Senator Marco Rubio states Russia has lost 100,000 killed, with Ukrainian losses being lower. TASS reports Trump's statement that NATO allies will pay for US weapons for Ukraine and his upcoming statement on Russia. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares Trump's statements about being "disappointed with Russia" and NATO paying for US weapons, indicating continued high-level US diplomatic engagement and potential shifts in policy. Operatyvnyi ZSU shares video of Pentagon Head Hegset announcing "era of American drone dominance," signaling US commitment to advanced drone technology and potentially aid to Ukraine. Kellogg announced his trip to Kyiv, indicating continued high-level visits and diplomatic support for Ukraine. (Source: РБК-Україна). UPDATED: Keith Kellogg, special envoy of Trump, will visit Kyiv on July 14 and stay for a week. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, STERNENKO). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
French Military Aid: Production of SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles to resume in 2025. UK and France signed a nuclear coordination declaration. Macron suggests core peacekeeping force for Ukraine could reach 50,000 troops. "Два майора" reports France has resumed production of SCALP cruise missiles after a 15-year break. This is a significant development for long-term Ukrainian deep strike capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
UK Military Aid: Agreement signed to supply over 5000 Thales-produced anti-aircraft missiles. UPDATED: UK Defense Minister John Healey states UK is ready to send troops to Ukraine to ensure a potential ceasefire, as part of a new "Coalition of the Willing" international initiative from the EU. (Source: Воин DV). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
German Military Aid: Germany ready to purchase two additional Patriot systems for Ukraine. Zelenskiy met with German Chancellor Merz. Germany will finance ten Patriot systems, and Norway will pay for one more. German Chancellor Merz states Russia must pay Ukraine €500 billion in damages. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Polish Stance: Polish PM Donald Tusk met with Zelenskyy, confirming defense support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Russian Internal Issues: Ongoing internal issues (corruption cases, arrests, economic policies, human rights concerns) continue to be managed. TASS reports PSB ensures uninterrupted pension payments to Russian citizens in Abkhazia. Alex Parker Returns's content about Belousov's alleged misuse of military aircraft highlights potential internal corruption that could draw international attention. TASS reports State Duma Committee approval of draft law strengthening responsibility for foreign agents, indicating a move towards further internal control. TASS reports seizure of "Yuzhurazoloto" shares by Prosecutor General's Office. UPDATED: TASS reports a prosecutor is seeking a 10-year sentence for former head of GABTU Ministry of Defense's utilization service, Timofeev, for large-scale bribery. (Source: ТАСС). ASTRA reports the Prosecutor General's Office wants to recover nearly 1 billion rubles from the organizers of defensive structures on the Belgorod border with Ukraine due to alleged financial irregularities. (Source: ASTRA). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Ukrainian Financial Needs: Continued critical requirement for external financial support. Receipt of EU tranches. Norway allocated $200M for energy sector. Finland and Netherlands provided 300 million euros each for recovery. Ukraine received over 10 billion euros for post-war reconstruction in Rome. RBC-Ukraine reports the European Commission wants to propose a floating price cap mechanism on Russian oil, which would be a significant diplomatic and economic development affecting Russia's revenue. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТИEDОТТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) shares video of Giorgia Meloni at a conference, discussing increased pressure on Moscow due to European fatigue with the war. Finland withdraws from Ottawa Convention on Anti-Personnel Mines, indicating a shift in Finland's military posture, which could be related to regional security dynamics or a response to perceived threats (Source: ASTRA). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Lithuanian Security Incident: Russian "Gerbera" (Shahed) drone fell in Lithuania, unknown drone from Belarus forced Lithuanian leadership into shelters – significant diplomatic incident. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Caucasus Diplomacy: Lavrov at ASEAN. Azerbaijan/Kazakhstan UAV exercises reported. Azerbaijan has arrested two former "Wagner" employees. RUF milblogger (Басурин о главном) questions "Whom does Russophobia of Baku surprise?", indicating a Russian perception of deteriorating relations with Azerbaijan, which could impact regional stability and RUF diplomatic efforts. Alex Parker Returns's report on Turkey's alleged victory over the PKK indicates a significant geopolitical shift that could impact regional alliances and attention, potentially diverting focus from Ukraine. Colonelcassad shares photos and videos related to operations in Iraq, which could influence perceptions of regional stability. (Source: Colonelcassad). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Starlink Mobile Internet: Mobile internet Starlink to launch in Ukraine in summer 2026. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
EU Sanctions: Reuters reports EU Commission will propose a floating price cap on Russian oil. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Hungary-Ukraine Relations: RUF media claims a Hungarian citizen was killed during mobilization in Zakarpattia, potentially leading to increased diplomatic tension. Viktor Orbán states Ukraine has the right to fight, but not to demand the same from Hungary, indicating continued friction in diplomatic relations and Hungary's position on non-involvement (Source: Colonelcassad). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Sweden: ASTRA reports on a Russian family living in Sweden facing deportation to Tajikistan, potentially raising human rights concerns and impacting international perceptions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Prisoner Exchange/Negotiations: TASS reports Peskov confirmed Russia continues work on prisoner and body exchanges and awaits proposals from Ukraine for direct negotiations. Kremlin awaits Trump's "important statement" on Monday, indicating diplomatic anticipation regarding US policy towards Russia and Ukraine (Source: Операция Z). UPDATED: Peskov states Brussels pushing Kyiv to continue war until "last Ukrainian", indicating a diplomatic narrative aimed at shifting blame and influencing international opinion. (Source: ТАСС). Операция Z reports Putin is confident in increasing advantages and not willing to make concessions under US pressure, according to NYT. (Source: Операция Z). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

Sustained Attritional Ground Warfare (Donbas, Kharkiv, Sumy/Kursk border): RUF will continue grinding ground assaults in Donbas, Kharkiv, and border suppression in Sumy/Kursk. They will attempt to consolidate gains and conduct incremental advances, supported by drones, MRLS, and KAB/KARs. Focus on targeting UAF engineering and military medical facilities, and logistics. Psychological operations and false flag pretexts will intensify. RUF will use propaganda materials to discredit Ukrainian information operations. Efforts to enhance vehicle survivability against drone threats will continue. RUF will continue "fire sweeping" operations. The alleged poisoning plot in Zaporizhzhia indicates RUF will pursue unconventional sabotage methods. RUF will leverage claims of foreign mercenary presence in Kharkiv to justify increased targeting. RUF will continue to deploy and highlight logistical robots. RUF will continue targeting UAF unmanned ground systems and use 6 UAVs on Sumy community. RUF will attempt to exploit any C2 disruption within the 155th Marine Brigade caused by the recent liquidation of their command element, either by pushing new leadership rapidly or by pausing/re-prioritizing offensive actions by this specific unit. RUF will continue to target Ukrainian administrative buildings in occupied territories, as evidenced by the strike on Energodar. RUF will continue to focus ground pressure and tactical aviation strikes on key Donbas axes, specifically Pokrovsk, as evidenced by claimed UAF force concentrations. Expect continued efforts to improve tactical communication for ground units, particularly assault detachments, to enhance battlefield coordination. RUF will continue offensive actions aimed at gaining full control of settlements in border regions of Sumy Oblast. RUF will use high-precision strikes (e.g., Kinzhal missiles) against high-value military targets. RUF will exploit internal Ukrainian issues such as conscription and military leadership to sow discord. RUF will continue to reinforce territorial gains in the Kharkiv region, as evidenced by the claimed liberation of Sobolevka. RUF will continue to engage UAF vehicles during rotation attempts, as evidenced by recent UAV engagements (Source: Воин DV). RUF will continue efforts to reinforce claimed control over Zelena Dolyna, DPR, as evidenced by official MoD videos (Source: ТАСС, Басурин о главном). RUF will continue to emphasize statements on unacceptable foreign troop presence near Russian borders to justify defensive posturing (Source: Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad). RUF will continue to conduct anti-sabotage operations against UAF special operations forces. (Source: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition). UPDATED: RUF will likely attempt to seize control of Kamenskoye and advance towards Dzerzhinsk/Konstantinovka to secure new positions. (Source: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Басурин о главном). RUF will continue to use propaganda about UAF mining money/toys in Kursk. (Source: ТАСС). RUF will continue to use the narrative that Brussels is pushing Kyiv to fight to the "last Ukrainian". (Source: ТАСС). RUF will continue to use civilian events to project normalcy and stability (Source: AV БогомаZ, Игорь Артамонов). RUF will continue to use narratives of internal Western discord (Alex Parker Returns). RUF will continue ground advances in Sumy Oblast, as seen with claimed capture of Bessalovka. (Source: Kotsnews). RUF will likely continue to pursue legal action against alleged corruption in military-related projects, as seen with the Belgorod defensive structures. (Source: ASTRA). RUF will continue to promote and highlight ongoing civilian support and fundraising efforts for military units. (Source: Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Increased Frequency, Volume, and Protracted Complexity of Aerial Strikes on Deep Targets: RUF will maintain and likely increase the frequency, volume, and duration of combined drone and ballistic missile attacks on Ukrainian deep targets, prioritizing Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and now Odesa to saturate and overwhelm air defenses. Expect continued deep strikes on military-industrial targets in Russia, including regional enterprises. Expect further civilian casualties, infrastructure damage, and continued targeting of military-industrial complex sites. Deep-state kinetic special operations targeting high-value Ukrainian security/intelligence personnel are likely to continue. The use of mobile drone launch platforms will complicate detection. Expect continued UAV activity in border regions of Russia. The confirmed strike on Odesa TCC and the alleged sea-launched drones indicate a clear MLCOA to specifically target Ukrainian military and force generation infrastructure in deep rear areas, using diversified attack vectors. Expect RUF to maintain sustained UAV overflights across multiple Ukrainian oblasts (Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad) to stretch UAF air defenses. RUF will continue to hit civilian infrastructure, including medical facilities, to maximize psychological impact. RUF will attempt to counter the narrative of persistent aerial threat over Ukraine by highlighting civilian aircraft over Kyiv (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Fighterbomber, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). UPDATED: Expect continued ballistic missile launches towards coastal areas, as seen with Vilkove. (Source: Николаевский Ванёк). RUF will continue to target Ukrainian drones over the Black Sea. (Source: ТАСС). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Aggressive Information Operations & Internal Security Focus: RUF will intensify information operations, leveraging military actions for propaganda and escalating inflammatory disinformation. Claims of UAF desertions or internal discord are likely to increase. RUF will continue internal security operations, including counter-intelligence. Internal propaganda will attempt to manage the narrative around incidents like the VDV cadet killing a commander. TASS will continue to frame Russia as a proponent of "truth and honest analysis of facts" globally. They will actively counter Ukrainian reports of successful breakthroughs into Belgorod Oblast. New attempts to stir diplomatic incidents are likely. TASS will continue to amplify Trump's statements. TASS will also highlight Putin's direct involvement in managing border security issues in Belgorod. RUF will continue to frame their cultural figures on "Myrotvorets" as victims of Ukrainian extremism. TASS will continue to use claims of UAF consciously targeting civilians in Belgorod Oblast. RUF will continue to aggressively leverage successful strikes on UAF TCCs as propaganda points, attempting to demoralize potential Ukrainian recruits and foreign support. Lavrov's public statements, framing Europe as aggressive, suggest an ongoing MLCOA to shape the international narrative and justify RUF actions to a domestic audience. RUF will continue to propagate narratives about large numbers of Ukrainian deserters and forced mobilization to undermine Ukrainian force generation. RUF will attempt to discredit Ukrainian military leadership and portray the dire state of Ukrainian supplies. RUF will continue to highlight their counter-intelligence successes. RUF will continue to use official statements regarding prisoner exchanges and negotiations to project a more reasonable image, while maintaining core demands. RUF will likely expand internal legislative measures to control the information environment further. RUF will continue to use low prisoner willingness to fight as propaganda (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). RUF will leverage statements like Orbán's to sow discord among Western allies (Source: Colonelcassad). RUF will continue to use civilian events to project normalcy and stability (Source: AV БогомаZ). UPDATED: RUF will continue to highlight the evacuation of children from Belgorod to justify defensive measures and portray Ukraine as targeting civilians. (Source: ТАСС). RUF will continue to leverage "Snoop Dogg" related content to project normalcy and cultural engagement. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF propaganda will continue to use narratives of betrayal and subversion within Ukraine. (Source: Alex Parker Returns). RUF will use images of civilian interaction at markets (e.g., Privoz in Odesa) to subtly convey a sense of civilian life under duress or disarray, fitting into a broader narrative of Ukrainian instability. (Source: Два майора). RUF will use news of internal Russian medical issues (e.g., cancer treatments with oak bark) to portray a sense of local self-reliance or alternative approaches, potentially deflecting from resource limitations. (Source: Новости Москвы). RUF will continue to use symbolic gestures like the painting presented to Putin from Belgorod to reinforce narratives of resilience and victory. (Source: ТАСС). RUF will continue to use news of corruption within its Ministry of Defense to project internal cleansing and accountability. (Source: ТАСС). RUF will use international news on Putin's resolve to project strength. (Source: Операция Z). RUF will likely expand its information operations to target and discredit internal dissent within Russia. (Source: ASTRA). RUF will use messaging to project domestic economic stability, such as fuel export discussions. (Source: ТАСС). RUF will continue to promote and publicize civilian support for the military. (Source: Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Diversified Diplomatic Efforts: Russia will continue to strengthen ties with non-Western countries and exploit Western disunity. Likely to continue using foreign natural disasters for propaganda and testing NATO's resolve through border provocations. Russia will likely try to leverage geopolitical shifts (e.g., Turkey/Kurds) to their advantage, potentially seeking to disrupt existing alliances or divert international attention. Russia will continue to anticipate and react to US foreign policy shifts, particularly those signaled by key political figures (Source: Операция Z). RUF will continue to publicize China's military readiness to reinforce its own geopolitical position. (Source: WarGonzo). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
Focus on Tank Survivability and Drone/Counter-UAV Tech & ADM Efficiency: RUF will continue efforts to upgrade tank survivability and actively seek solutions for enhancing drone effectiveness and developing new counter-UAV capabilities. They will also explore and promote concepts for cheaper, high-volume air defense systems. UPDATED: RUF will likely continue to invest in and promote drone development and innovation, as indicated by the upcoming "Dronnitsa" meeting. (Source: Филолог в засаде). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5.2. Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA)

Major Coordinated Offensive from Northern Axis: Leveraging concentrated forces in Belgorod, RUF initiates a full-scale, multi-pronged offensive towards Kharkiv, aiming for deep envelopment and fixation of significant UAF reserves, coupled with a breakthrough attempt in the Donbas. This could be supported by a more significant ground incursion into Sumy Oblast. The commitment of the 83rd AAB to Vovchansk indicates a higher probability of this envelopment attempt. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Decisive Breakthrough in Donbas: RUF commits substantial fresh reserves and resources to achieve a rapid, decisive breakthrough on a key Donbas axis, leading to a collapse of UAF defensive lines and significant territorial gains. The "human wave" tactics in Chasiv Yar indicate a clear intent to achieve a breakthrough, increasing the risk. This could be coupled with intensified offensive action on the Pokrovsk axis to prevent UAF reserve redeployment. TASS claim of UAF grouping in Pokrovsk/Dimitrov being in a "fire bag" indicates RUF intent to achieve an encirclement, escalating the risk. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
Escalation involving chemical weapon false flag: RUF uses its public claims of UAF chemical weapon use as a pretext for a false flag operation or an actual chemical attack. CONFIDENCE: LOW.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

IMMEDIATE (0-6 hours):
- Continue Damage Control: Maintain immediate damage assessment, casualty response, and recovery/repair in Kyiv (28 injured), Chuhuiv, Kharkiv City (9 injured, 3 infants injured), Lipetsk Oblast (1 killed, 1 injured), Zaporizhzhia Raion (1 injured, 1 killed), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Tula Oblast (1 killed, 1 injured), Kursk Oblast (4 injured), Odesa (9 injured), and Donetsk Oblast (7 killed, 9 injured). Respond to civilian fatality in Stepnohirsk community and animal casualties in Odesa.
- Air Defense Alert: Monitor for further follow-on attacks or reconnaissance by new RUF UAV groups towards Kyiv Oblast, Zhytomyr, Western Oblasts, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad, and Odesa. UAF drone safety operations in Russian border regions likely to continue. Monitor for KAB launches. Monitor for re-imposition of flight restrictions at Russian airports. Monitor for reconnaissance UAVs in the Black Sea targeting Odesa. Monitor for RUF UAV activity from Belarus towards Ukraine. Prioritize response to any new ballistic missile threat, especially towards Dnipropetrovsk and Vilkove. Maintain high alert for potentially 20 drones over Ukraine.
- Intelligence Verification: Verify RUF claims of Zelena Dolyna liberation and Sobolevka liberation. Verify RUF claims. Confirm details of SBU Colonel assassination. Verify claimed maritime attacks in Red Sea. Clarify conflicting reports on Penza TETs fire. Investigate the VDV cadet killing commander report. Conduct BDA on the Kursk agro-holding fire, Tula explosions, Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, Kronstadt UAV production facility, and the Orlov Oblast "regional enterprise". Assess the "tank-monster" claims. Verify the unverified claim of a Hungarian citizen killed during mobilization in Zakarpattia. Verify claims of Mirny and Voskresenka capture. Verify the liquidation of Colonel Sergey Ilyin and Captain 2nd Rank Shipunov. Verify the TASS claim of UAF grouping in Pokrovsk/Dimitrov being in a "fire bag". Verify the defense against "Tsar-tank" in Toretsk direction. Assess the implications of the Kyiv Metro tunnel damage and ex-minister Kubrakov searches. Assess the impact of the liquidation of Major General Gudkov and Colonels Ilyin and Bashkardin on RUF C2, especially for the 155th Marine Brigade. Verify alleged sea-launch of drones for Odesa strike. Continue monitoring traffic accidents in occupied territories for any military implications. Verify RUF claims of controlling Novonykolaivka, Sumy Oblast. Verify TASS claims of UAF defensive collapse on South Donetsk direction. Verify RUF claims of large-scale desertion in UAF. Verify reports of internal Russian military corruption. Verify the context of Alex Parker Returns's "Все плохо" posts. Verify the impact of the lifted migrant worker ban in Nizhny Novgorod. Continue monitoring the water poisoning incident in Dagestan and its potential for internal instability. Verify the implications of Finland's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention on Anti-Personnel Mines for regional security (Source: ASTRA). Verify military relevance of civilian aircraft over Kyiv (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Fighterbomber, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Verify Russian internal reports on low criminal willingness to fight (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Assess the impact of MP Shevchenko's new suspicion on internal stability and public trust (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). **Verify Orsk Mechanical Plant fire impact on RUF artillery shell production. (Source: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ). Verify claimed RUF advances in Dzerzhinsk/Konstantinovka. (Source: Басурин о главном). Assess impact of water outages in Lugansk. (Source: Mash на Донбассе). Verify RUF claims of UAF planting mines in money, toys, sweets in Kursk. (Source: ТАСС). Verify the claims of Bessalovka capture in Sumy Oblast by RUF. (Source: Kotsnews). Monitor the nature and context of civilian interactions in Odesa (e.g., "Privoz" market) for any direct or indirect military implications. (Source: Два майора). Assess the significance of the "Admiral Kuznetsov" being scrapped. (Source: Север.Реалии). Assess the relevance and purpose of Russia's internal campaign against "Revolt-center" in Syktyvkar. (Source: ASTRA). Investigate any military implications of increased tick bites in Moscow region. (Source: Новости Москвы). Assess the impact of domestic fuel export ban. (Source: ТАСС). Investigate the reported liquidation of Captain Vladislav Yakovenko, commander of a sabotage and reconnaissance group from the 140th SSO Center of the AFU. (Source: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition). Analyze any correlation between RUF FPV drone strikes on civilian vehicles and supply routes. (Source: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Counter-Propaganda: Issue forceful public statements countering RUF chemical weapons claims, false flag pretexts, and narratives about abandoning wounded soldiers. Counter disinformation regarding Putin-Trump relations. Proactively highlight damage to civilian structures and civilian casualties, particularly children. Actively counter RUF narratives celebrating strikes on TCCs or claiming local support for their actions in Odesa. Emphasize civilian casualties, especially infants, and the humanitarian impact of RUF strikes. Use legal information to counter RUF disinformation on mobilization. Highlight UAF internal improvements and social support. Highlight the tribute to Igor Poklad as a demonstration of Ukrainian cultural resilience. Counter RUF narratives on foreign troop deployment near Russian borders (Source: Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad). Counter RUF attempts to portray Ukraine as unreasonable in its demands on allies (Source: Colonelcassad). Proactively highlight administrative streamlining and accountability efforts (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). Counter RUF narratives using civilian events to project normalcy (Source: AV БогомаZ, Игорь Артамонов). UPDATED: Counter RUF claims of UAF mining money, toys, sweets. Counter Peskov's narrative of Brussels pushing Kyiv to fight to "last Ukrainian". Highlight humanitarian impact of RUF attacks and Lviv flooding. Continue to highlight recreational events for children of defenders to boost morale. Actively counter RUF propaganda portraying civilian aircraft over Kyiv as a sign of normalization. (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Fighterbomber, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Counter RUF narratives of strength and resolve against the US. (Source: Операция Z). Counter RUF attempts to use internal anti-corruption measures to deflect from broader issues. (Source: ТАСС, ASTRA). Counter RUF narratives emphasizing internal Russian stability. (Source: Новости Москвы). Counter RUF narratives that attempt to portray civilian support for military as widespread and genuine. (Source: Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Monitor RUF Tactical Shifts: Observe RUF border actions and any specific tactical shifts on the Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad, Novoseklovske, Kupyansk/Svatove, and Krasnolimansky directions. Monitor RUF signalmen activities for indicators of enhanced tactical C2 or new communication techniques. Monitor for new offensive ground actions following the claimed liberation of Zelena Dolyna and Sobolevka. Monitor RUF UAV operators for new tactical adaptations, particularly in engaging UAF vehicles on rotation attempts (Source: Воин DV). UPDATED: Monitor RUF attempts to consolidate control over Kamenskoye and Dzerzhinsk. Monitor for any follow-up actions by RUF in Sumy Oblast after claimed Bessalovka capture. (Source: Kotsnews). Monitor RUF activities in the Black Sea following the claimed drone shootdown. (Source: ТАСС). Monitor for any tactical implications of China's amphibious landing drills as reported by RUF sources. (Source: WarGonzo). Monitor for any changes in RUF's use of FPV drones on critical routes. (Source: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- Weather Response: Initiate immediate response to severe weather warnings in Bryansk Oblast and ongoing flooding in Lviv Oblast.
SHORT-TERM (6-24 hours):
- Air Defense Allocation: Critical decision points for UAF on strategic allocation of air defense assets and munitions. Prioritize allocation and delivery of newly committed Patriot systems. Implement new Kyiv drone interception system.
- Frontline Defense: Expect sustained RUF ground pressure in Kupyansk, Donbas, and intensified envelopment attempts in Kharkiv. Continue UAF cross-border drone activity. Commanders on Kramatorsk axis need to action contingency plans for troop rotation.
- System Restoration: Address "Rerezerv+" app outage.
- Financial Aid Integration: Assess immediate impact of EU financial tranches and other aid.
- Force Protection: Prioritize immediate delivery and deployment of anti-thermal cloaks.
- Counter-UAS/EW Deployment: Rapid deployment of additional counter-UAS and EW assets to the Chasiv Yar sector.
- Internal Security: Monitor and respond to internal public safety incidents, and investigate the alleged poisoning plot. Continue to investigate corruption cases within the UAF supply chain (e.g., clothing case). Monitor and respond to the ongoing internal investigation regarding the People's Deputy. Continue humanitarian evacuation efforts for children from at-risk regions (Source: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)).
- Diplomatic Engagement: Support the visit of Keith Kellogg to Kyiv, ensuring security and maximizing diplomatic outcomes. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, STERNENKO). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
MID-TERM (24-72 hours):
- Aid Effectiveness: Monitor the impact of new US and EU aid deliveries on battlefield dynamics. Assess the long-term impact of French SCALP missile production resumption.
- RUF Adaptations: Continue to assess RUF adaptations to UAF drone capabilities and their efforts to enhance their own drone and counter-UAV technologies.
- Internal RUF Dynamics: Monitor internal Russian political and social dynamics for long-term force generation implications, including the impact of alleged internal corruption.
- Strategic Assessment: Assess the long-term impact of heightened air defense expenditure and resource constraints, and the SBU Colonel assassination on Ukrainian internal security. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

RUF Missile/UAV Production and Inventory:
- GAP: Full assessment of current ballistic missile and Shahed drone inventory and production rates. Are current integrated multi-wave, prolonged attacks a new standard? Capabilities and likely vectors of new UAV groups targeting Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Western Oblasts, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Lipetsk, Tula, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, and Odesa. What is the specific impact of the UAF drone strike on Lukhovitsy Aviation Plant, Beriev Aviation Plant, Tula Instrument Design Bureau, Kronstadt UAV production facility, and the Orlov Oblast "regional enterprise"? What are the capabilities and launch methods for alleged sea-launched drones used in the Odesa attack? What is the current operational status and production capacity of the Orsk Mechanical Plant post-fire?
- CR: Prioritize SIGINT, IMINT, and HUMINT on RUF defense industrial base. Analyze flight patterns and track new UAV groups for launch locations/patterns. Conduct BDA for precise damage assessment and production impact. Investigate alleged sea-launch platforms and methods. Prioritize ISR on the Orsk Mechanical Plant to assess damage extent and operational impact. Monitor further developments from the "Dronnitsa" meeting for indicators of future RUF drone capabilities.
UAF Air Defense Munitions Status Post-Kyiv Integrated, Prolonged Attack:
- GAP: Immediate and granular assessment of remaining air defense interceptor stockpiles, especially for ballistic missile defense. What are the specific delivery timelines for new Patriot systems? How will the newly launched Kyiv drone interception system integrate and impact overall ADM effectiveness and consumption?
- CR: Immediate HUMINT from air defense units and logistics command. Prioritize SIGINT on UAF air defense engagements. Monitor the initial effectiveness and challenges of the new Kyiv drone interception system.
Verification and BDA of RUF Claimed Strikes, Infiltrations, and Desertions:
- GAP: Independent verification of RUF claims regarding UAF ammunition depot destruction, VDV infiltration, UAF desertion (including abandoning wounded, or large-scale desertion figures), specific enemy advances (Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Karlo Marksa, Zelenyi Hai, Borovska Andriivka, Zelena Dolyna, Mirny and Voskresenka, Novonykolaivka in Sumy, Sobolevka in Kharkiv, Kamenskoye, Dzerzhinsk, Bessalovka in Sumy), precise impact of claimed Iskander strikes, claimed destruction of UAF armored vehicles, alleged UAF chemical weapon use, and destruction of Starlink equipment and D-20 howitzer. Confirmation of the extent and impact of the SBU Colonel assassination. Verification of the VDV cadet killing a commander report. Confirmation of the specific impact of the Odesa TCC strike and any civilian casualties/collateral damage related to it, versus RUF claims of "precision" and local gratitude. Verification of the implications of Finland's withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention on Anti-Personnel Mines for regional security (Source: ASTRA). Verify military relevance of civilian aircraft over Kyiv (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Fighterbomber, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Verify Russian internal reports on low criminal willingness to fight and the impact on force generation (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Assess the impact of MP Shevchenko's new suspicion on internal stability and public trust (Source: РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ). Verify RUF claims of UAF planting mines in money, toys, and sweets in Kursk. Verify the claims regarding the liquidation of Captain Vladislav Yakovenko, commander of a sabotage and reconnaissance group from the 140th SSO Center of the AFU. (Source: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition). Assess the impact of RUF FPV drone strikes on civilian vehicles and key supply routes near Kramatorsk-Dobropillia. (Source: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- CR: Prioritize IMINT (satellite, drone reconnaissance) and HUMINT from frontline units for rapid BDA and verification. SIGINT for RUF C2 communications. Cross-reference RUF claims with UAF internal reporting and OSINT. Forensic investigation into the SBU Colonel assassination.
Impact of RUF Electronic Conscription Registry & Demobilization:
- GAP: Full assessment of the effectiveness of Russia's electronic conscription registry. What is the actual compliance rate and the impact on Russian society and economy? What are the factors contributing to the extremely low demobilization rate? What are the implications of reported fraud against "SVO" fighters and the impact of public pressure on mobilization issues?
- CR: HUMINT from within Russia, OSINT monitoring of Russian social media and official statements, economic analysis of labor market changes. Investigate fraud cases affecting military personnel.
UAF Personnel Management System ("Rerezerv+" App) Status:
- GAP: Root cause of the "Rerezerv+" app outage, its duration, and the extent of operational impact on UAF personnel management and mobilization processes. What is the overall impact of the "Армія+" survey on military efficiency and morale?
- CR: TECHINT analysis of the app's infrastructure. HUMINT from UAF personnel and administrative units.
Full Impact of Western Military Aid Deliveries:
- GAP: Granular tracking of quantities, delivery timelines, and integration status for US, UK, German, Norwegian, Finnish, and Dutch aid. Assessment of the integration process and operational impact of the newly committed Patriot systems. What are the specific implications of Trump's statements and potential US policy shifts? What is the projected timeline for initial deliveries and operational deployment of newly resumed French SCALP missiles to Ukraine, and what is the projected rate of production? What is the impact of the proposed EU floating price cap on Russian oil? What is the full scope and impact of US commitment to "American drone dominance" on future aid and technological transfer? What are the specific conditions or caveats to UK's readiness to send troops to Ukraine for a potential ceasefire?
- CR: HUMINT from UAF logistics and frontline units. OSINT on aid announcements and delivery reports. IMINT for visual confirmation of new equipment deployment. Monitor international media and diplomatic channels for further details on US policy shifts and aid commitments, including the specifics of the "Coalition of the Willing."
RUF Internal Stability and Resource Diversion:
- GAP: Assess whether ongoing internal Russian issues (forest fires, oil spills, banking failures, heatwave, corruption purges, crime within military ranks, legal challenges, ethnic tensions, suppression of dissent, Steam platform outages, rejection of Azerbaijani imports, local political/cultural controversies, and alleged misuse of military assets by high-ranking officials) are diverting significant resources from military operations. What is the full C2 impact of the recent high-level RUF casualties in Kursk and the liquidation of Captain 2nd Rank Shipunov on the affected units, particularly the 155th Marine Brigade? What is the impact of the FSB operation in Bryansk on UAF drone capabilities and Russian internal security? What are the implications of the humanitarian issue involving a Russian family in Sweden facing deportation to Tajikistan? What are the broader geopolitical implications of Turkey's alleged victory over the PKK for Russian influence in the Middle East and Caucasus? What is the impact of the lifted migrant worker ban in Nizhny Novgorod? What is the scope and duration of water outages in occupied Lugansk and their impact on local population and RUF operations? What are the broader implications of corruption cases within the Russian MoD (e.g., Timofeev prosecution, Belgorod defense structures) for RUF logistics and public trust? What is the current operational status of the "Admiral Kuznetsov" and its final disposition? What is the impact of a potential ban on gasoline exports on domestic energy supply and military logistics? (Source: ТАСС). What is the strategic significance of China's amphibious landing drills as reported by RUF media? (Source: WarGonzo). What is the internal impact of the "Revolt-center" incident in Syktyvkar on domestic dissent? (Source: ASTRA).
- CR: OSINT on Russian domestic media, economic indicators, and public sentiment. HUMINT from sources within Russia on resource allocation shifts. HUMINT and SIGINT on affected RUF units to gauge C2 disruption and subsequent operational changes. Monitor legal proceedings related to corruption in the MoD. Prioritize IMINT on "Admiral Kuznetsov." Monitor any economic impacts of fuel export bans. Assess geopolitical implications of Chinese military activities. Monitor internal dissent and related actions.
Impact of Extreme Weather on Ukrainian Infrastructure & Operations:
- GAP: Detailed assessment of the damage and humanitarian impact of severe flooding in Lviv and Lutsk Oblasts. What is the current capacity of emergency services and how will it affect resource allocation?
- CR: IMINT, OSINT (local news, social media), and HUMINT from affected regions and emergency services. Assess impact on key transportation routes and critical infrastructure.

END OF REPORT

Situation Report