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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-07-06 16:33:40Z
7 months ago
Previous (2025-07-06 16:03:51Z)

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 061633Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

  • Kyiv Oblast: Power temporarily disrupted on Left Bank after night attack, now restored. No TPP-6 impact. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Agricultural enterprise in Znamyanka Community damaged by RUF attack. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Kharkiv Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs impacted Kharkiv city, causing injuries and damage. Glide bombs (KABs) continue against Kharkiv city and 13 settlements. RUF forces attacked emergency responders in Kharkiv. RUF claims liberation of Sobolivka and are attempting to cut off UAF logistics near Kupyansk for encirclement. RUF aviation airstrikes across Vovchansk and Chuhuiv. Civilian vehicle attacked by FPV drone, child killed. UAF UAVs reportedly destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. Mine detonations remain a civilian threat. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Collateral damage, RUF intent for Kupyansk encirclement), MEDIUM (RUF claims of encirclement).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Threat of RUF aviation weapons employment in Synelnykivskyi district. Two districts terrorized, residential buildings damaged. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Donetsk Oblast: No significant changes to battlefield geometry. Pokrovsk direction remains most active, UAF 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade repelled 42 attacks (June 29-July 5), eliminating 147 RUF personnel. RUF claims "liberation" of Poddubnoye and Tolstoy, indicating localized gains. RUF VDV (Airborne) units active in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. RUF continues to press in Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Kurakhove, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Velyka Novosilka, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Siversk directions. UAF drone operations active near Toretsk. RUF propaganda suggests Chasiv Yar fall leads to UAF defense collapse further west. NEW: 5 killed, 1 wounded in Donetsk Oblast shelling (Ukrainian local authorities). RUF 255th Regiment claimed seizing enemy positions on the Kostiantynivka direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (UAF defense, RUF pressure, casualties), MEDIUM (RUF claimed gains, RUF aspirational claims).
  • Kherson Oblast: RUF claims UAF strike on polyclinic in Nova Kakhovka (awaiting verification). RUF "Dnepr" unit reportedly destroyed UAF M777 howitzer. RUF FPV drone strike on OKKO gas station in Kherson. RUF attacked rescuers in Kherson. UAF reports repelling one RUF assault. RUF aviation airstrikes at Olhivka. UAF Marines continue air defense operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (RUF attacks on rescuers, UAF repelled assault), LOW (RUF claim of polyclinic strike).
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs from Black Sea impacted Mykolaiv city. Significant damage to residential buildings, catering facility, bank. Multiple Shaheds reported shot down. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Odesa Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs from Black Sea, no reported impacts in Odesa. UAF Naval Forces celebrated in Odesa, indicating high morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Poltava Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs targeted Poltava Oblast, confirmed strike on TCC building in Kremenchuk (3rd TCC strike this week), 2 injured, nearby residential damage. Victims from July 3rd Poltava strike increased. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Sumy Oblast: RUF tactical aviation continues KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast. RUF UAVs moving into Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts from Sumy. RUF sources claim UAF redeployed new units to Sumy, and over 20 trucks with RUF personnel reportedly redeploying to Sumy from southern regions. RUF reports 23 UAF assaults repelled in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. NEW: UAF 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators on Sumy direction soliciting public support for drones and equipment. This confirms UAF presence and activity in the area. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: RUF Shahed UAVs detected moving towards Vinnytsia Oblast from southern Kyiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF attack with 5 Shahed UAVs damaged private/farming enterprises, warehouses, three multi-story buildings, 1 civilian injured. FPV drone attack on Polohivskyi district. UAF drones continue to destroy RUF artillery and logistics. NEW: RUF source "Operation Z" claims combat in Zaporizhzhia front, assault on Kamyanske and Mala Tokmachka supported by 4th base operators (drone footage). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Russian Territory:
    • Belgorod Oblast: Local authorities report UAF drone attacks on a bus and two vehicles, causing casualties (2 killed, 6 injured). RUF claims advanced 2km on a new front section at the junction of Belgorod and Kharkiv Oblasts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Casualties/damage), MEDIUM (RUF claimed advance).
    • Bryansk Oblast: Governor reports 30 UAF aircraft-type UAVs detected and destroyed by RUF AD. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Kaluga Oblast: 5 UAF UAVs reportedly destroyed by RUF AD, no casualties. Airport restrictions lifted. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Krasnodar Krai (Novorossiysk): UAF Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV) attacks confirmed on Novorossiysk throughout the night, with RUF claiming successful repel of some targets. Destroyed USV found. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (UAF attack confirmed), MEDIUM (RUF claim of successful repel).
    • Kursk Oblast: UAF reports repelling 23 Russian army assaults in Kursk direction. Putin posthumously named 155th Kursk Marine Brigade after Mikhail Gudkov (died in Kursk Oblast, posthumously "Twice Hero of Russia"). Significant propaganda effort. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Leningrad Oblast (Kirishi/Ust-Luga): Explosion and ammonia leak on Eco Wizard tanker in Ust-Luga port, with reports of sinking. Sixth such incident. NEW: Kirishi district, Leningrad Oblast, reports two UAVs shot down by Governor. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Lipetsk Oblast (Yelets): "UAV attack threat" lifted. Su-57s observed flying over Yelets. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Moscow Oblast: 6 UAF UAVs reportedly shot down by RUF AD, according to Mayor Sobyanin. High temperatures reported. Aviation between Moscow and St. Petersburg practically halted, increased rail transport, indicating air travel disruptions. Putin attended "All for Victory!" forum, focusing on military support. NEW: RUF source "Operation Z" claims enemy attempts to attack Moscow again. Rosaviatsia states Russian air transport system handles external interference periodically, sufficient resources for enterprises. Sheremetyevo Airport reports 171 flights cancelled, 56 delayed as of 18:00 MSK (TASS). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Nizhny Novgorod Oblast: Airport restrictions temporarily introduced and then lifted. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Pskov Oblast: Temporary restrictions introduced at Pskov airport due to UAV threat. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • St. Petersburg (Pulkovo Airport): Mass flight delays and cancellations due to UAV threats. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • General (RU): RUF MoD claims 120 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions and Sea of Azov overnight (likely exaggerated, UAF claims 117/157 neutralized). UAF deep strikes continue to affect Russian air travel. RUF MoD claims 39 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over six regions between 08:30 and 14:00 MSK. Satellite imagery indicates possible damage to Borisoglebsk airfield from July 5th strike, but extent unclear. NEW: RUF MoD shows specialists of 1st Guards Engineer Brigade (Sever Group of Forces) repairing/modernizing surviving drones during combat operations. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM (RUF UAV claims), HIGH (UAF deep strike persistence, airport disruptions).
    • Dagestan (Buynaksk): Teenager arrested for alleged terrorist act attempt near Ministry of Internal Affairs building, head of district arrested for fraud. Domestic security issues. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Samara Oblast: Governor transferred significant aid (drones, EW, vehicles) to troops. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Black Sea: New groups of RUF Shahed UAVs detected from Black Sea, en route to Mykolaiv/Odesa Oblasts and Kinburn Spit/Dmytrivka/Parutyne. RUF Naval activity includes 1 ship, 1 frigate, 1 missile carrier (8 Kalibr missiles), and 1 patrol ship. No missile carriers in Sea of Azov. RUF tactical aviation activity in Azov Sea. NEW: Ukrainian source "RBC-Ukraine" reports Pletenchuk explains why Russia deploys submarines but does not fire (suggests technical or operational issues). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

  • Ukraine: Forecast indicates heat up to +37°C and thunderstorms for the coming week.
  • Impact: High temperatures will exacerbate heat stress on personnel and equipment, particularly for armored operations and sustained physical activity. Thunderstorms may disrupt drone operations, limit air support, and affect ground maneuverability due to muddy conditions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

  • UAF: Maintaining defensive posture across most sectors. Active counter-drone operations in Sumy and Donetsk. Redeploying units to Sumy direction in response to RUF activity. Prioritizing air defense against Shahed and ballistic missile threats. Actively using FPV drones against RUF logistics and personnel in Zaporizhzhia and Toretsk directions. NEW: UAF 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade confirms drone operations on Sumy direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • RUF: Main effort in Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Chasiv Yar) with persistent, high-intensity assaults. Fixing operations in Kharkiv and Sumy to pin UAF reserves. Continued widespread use of glide bombs and FPV drones. Increased drone and missile activity against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure (TCCs). Demonstrating continued deep strike capability into Russian territory by UAF. NEW: RUF 255th Regiment claimed seizing enemy positions on the Kostiantynivka direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Control Measures: Widespread air raid alerts across multiple Ukrainian oblasts due to UAV, ballistic missile, and aviation weapon threats. Temporary flight restrictions in various Russian airports due to UAV threats. NEW: Russian aviation authorities acknowledge periodic external interference in air transport system and sufficient resources to cope. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

  • Capabilities: RUF maintains significant artillery and air support capabilities, particularly with FAB-series glide bombs. Continued ability to conduct sustained ground assaults using mechanized and VDV units. Robust drone and missile attack capabilities demonstrated against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure (TCCs). Effective Electronic Warfare (EW) is implied by high UAF UAV losses. NEW: RUF demonstrates drone repair/modernization capabilities (1st Guards Engineer Brigade). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Intentions:
    • Eastern Axis (Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk): Intent to seize Chasiv Yar and consolidate control to open further avenues towards Kramatorsk-Sloviansk. Maintain pressure on Pokrovsk direction. NEW: RUF 255th Regiment claiming advances towards Kostiantynivka supports this intent. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy): Intent to fix UAF forces, prevent redeployment of reserves to the eastern axis. Potential for a renewed, larger-scale offensive towards Kharkiv city remains, but currently appears as a shaping operation. Increased RUF activity in Sumy region may indicate a new shaping or diversionary effort, or potential for a new offensive direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fixing), MEDIUM (Larger offensive in Kharkiv/Sumy).
    • Deep Operations: Continue to degrade Ukrainian morale and mobilization efforts by striking TCCs and civilian infrastructure. Disrupt Ukrainian logistics and energy supply. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Courses of Action (COAs):
    • MLCOA: Continued high-intensity assaults on Chasiv Yar to secure the Kanal microdistrict and attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal. Sustained fixing operations in Kharkiv and Sumy regions with localized ground probes and heavy use of glide bombs and artillery. Persistent drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian rear areas, particularly TCCs and energy infrastructure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • MDCOA: A concerted, large-scale armored thrust towards Kharkiv city from the north, or a new ground offensive in Sumy Oblast, aimed at opening a new front to further stretch UAF defenses, potentially supported by intensified long-range strikes. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

  • RUF:
    • TCC Targeting: Deliberate and repeated targeting of Ukrainian Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs) in cities like Kremenchuk (3rd strike this week). This indicates a specific intent to disrupt UAF mobilization and recruitment efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Combined Attacks: Continued use of coordinated drone (Shahed) and ballistic missile attacks against civilian and critical infrastructure targets, including attempts to hit energy facilities (Kyiv). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • VDV Role: Observed active engagement of VDV units in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, indicating commitment of elite forces to this axis. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Adaptation in Chasiv Yar: Shift from larger battalion-level assaults to more frequent company-sized mechanized attacks to conserve combat power and probe weaknesses. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (from previous report).
    • Drone Sustainment: Evidence of dedicated repair and modernization units for drones (1st Guards Engineer Brigade), indicating a commitment to maintaining drone operational readiness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

  • RUF: Continued ability to sustain offensive operations across multiple axes, including logistics for extensive glide bomb and drone usage. Regional governmental support (e.g., Samara Oblast) provides material aid to troops, indicating decentralized sustainment efforts. NEW: Demonstrated capability for drone repair and modernization suggests robust forward sustainment for drone operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • UAF: Evidence of continued resupply and support to frontline units, including drones, vehicles, and thermal imagers for the Zaporizhzhia front. However, GLOCs into Chasiv Yar are under severe RUF fire control, degrading resupply efforts. NEW: UAF unit 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade on Sumy direction publicly soliciting donations for drones and associated equipment, indicating ongoing resource needs and potential constraints. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

  • RUF: Appears to maintain effective C2 for coordinating multi-domain strikes (drones, missiles, aviation) and ground operations across different fronts. Putin's public appearances (e.g., "All for Victory!" forum, BRICS summit by zoom) serve to project strong centralized leadership and reinforce military-industrial complex narratives. NEW: Internal Russian criticism regarding Maj. Gen. Gudkov's death for holding meetings on the front lines suggests some internal C2 issues or tactical discipline concerns for specific individuals, but not systemic failure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • UAF: Demonstrating coordinated air defense responses and effective counter-drone operations. Concerns regarding the readiness and effectiveness of some Territorial Defense Forces (TRO) units due to conscription challenges may impact overall combat effectiveness, as highlighted by a UAF serviceman. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Air defense/counter-drone), MEDIUM (TRO readiness issues).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

  • Defensive Posture: UAF maintains a resilient defensive posture, particularly in Donetsk and Kharkiv. Significant efforts are underway to counter RUF advances and fix their forces. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Air Defense: UAF successfully neutralized 117/157 RUF UAVs and 4 S-300 missiles, demonstrating continued air defense capabilities, though a significant number of UAVs still penetrate. NEW: Continued drone attacks on Russian territory, including Leningrad Oblast, and impacts on Russian air travel demonstrate persistent deep strike capability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Drone Operations: UAF continues to effectively employ drones for reconnaissance and precision strikes against RUF equipment, logistics, and personnel in multiple sectors (Zaporizhzhia, Toretsk). NEW: 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade drone operators on Sumy direction are active and soliciting specific equipment, indicating continued reliance on drones and unit-level initiative for sustainment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Challenges: The repeated targeting of TCCs by RUF indicates an attempt to disrupt UAF mobilization. Internal discourse on the effectiveness of conscription and the readiness of some newly conscripted personnel (specifically TRO) could impact overall force generation and quality. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

  • Successes:
    • UAF 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade successfully repelled 42 RUF attacks in Pokrovske direction, eliminating 147 RUF personnel. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Successful neutralization of a high percentage of incoming RUF UAVs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Confirmed UAF USV attacks on Novorossiysk, demonstrating deep strike capabilities against Russian naval assets/infrastructure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Confirmed UAF drone strikes against RUF artillery and logistics in Zaporizhzhia direction and near Toretsk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Confirmed UAF drone attacks against targets in Leningrad Oblast, further demonstrating reach into Russian territory. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Setbacks:
    • RUF claimed capture of Sobolivka and Poddubnoye in Donetsk/Kharkiv, and Tolstoy in Novopavlovka direction. These are localized territorial losses. NEW: RUF 255th Regiment claiming advances towards Kostiantynivka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Continued RUF pressure on Chasiv Yar, with efforts to establish lodgements west of the canal. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Civilian casualties (5 killed, 1 wounded in Donetsk Oblast) and infrastructure damage from persistent RUF drone, missile, and glide bomb attacks across multiple oblasts, including strikes on TCCs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

  • Resource Requirements: Continued need for robust air defense systems to counter RUF's persistent drone and missile attacks. Enhanced counter-battery fire and ISR capabilities for Chasiv Yar. Additional protective equipment and medical supplies for frontline units. NEW: Specific requests for generators, drone spare parts, binoculars, and drone control goggles by UAF 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade highlight immediate and specific material needs for frontline drone operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Constraints: Degradation of GLOCs into Chasiv Yar due to RUF fire control. Challenges in rapidly integrating and training new conscripts to frontline standards, especially for TRO units. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

  • RUF:
    • Hero Worship: Extensive propaganda campaign around the posthumous naming of the 155th Kursk Marine Brigade after Mikhail Gudkov and Putin presenting the award to his widow. This aims to bolster morale, glorify military service, and frame casualties as heroic sacrifices. Putin's attendance at "All for Victory!" forum and signing a guitar for a school director who joined the SVO serves similar purpose. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Narrative Control: RUF attempts to control the narrative of military operations, claiming "liberation" of villages (Sobolivka, Poddubnoye, Tolstoy) and exaggerating UAF losses (e.g., 120 UAVs shot down). Rosaviatsia's statement on handling external interference without disruption aims to project stability amidst airport closures. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Targeting TCCs: RUF sources explicitly frame strikes on TCCs as "saving Ukrainian population" and disrupting mobilization, intending to sow dissent and deter recruitment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Domestic Focus: Putin's public appearances at forums (e.g., "All for Victory!") emphasize Russia's domestic military-technological superiority over NATO and resilience, aimed at internal audience reassurance. His BRICS summit appearance by zoom discussing a "new world order" aims to project global influence despite war. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Counter-UAV Narrative: MoD Russia distributing footage of drone repair/modernization aims to project self-sufficiency and capability in drone warfare. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • UAF:
    • Counter-Narratives: UAF sources (e.g., STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) actively counter RUF narratives and highlight RUF misconduct (e.g., killing a child, attacking rescuers). CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Transparency/Call for Aid: Public calls for donations for specific equipment (e.g., 21st OMBr drones) while highlighting combat effectiveness, aims to foster public support and directly address resource gaps. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
    • Highlighting Russian Difficulties: UAF sources highlight Russian airport cancellations and naval issues (Pletenchuk on submarines) to underscore the impact of Ukrainian operations and sow doubt about Russian capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

  • Ukrainian Public: Civilian casualties and destruction of infrastructure (including TCCs) likely cause fear and distress. However, public celebrations (UAF Naval Forces in Odesa) and public appeals for aid from military units indicate resilience and continued support for the military. The internal debate over conscription methods could reflect public apprehension or concern over fairness and effectiveness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Russian Public: Putin's rhetoric and awards ceremonies aim to consolidate public support for the "Special Military Operation." Domestic security incidents (Dagestan) and airport disruptions (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Pskov) could cause public unease, but state media likely controls the narrative, emphasizing resilience. NEW: Internal criticism of Maj. Gen. Gudkov's tactical decision-making suggests some underlying discontent or questioning of leadership effectiveness, even within pro-war circles. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

  • International Support: Continued military aid from partner nations to Ukraine (implied by discussion on coalition support and drone/military aid mentions from "Dva Mayora" RUF source, though in a negative light). NEW: EU implementing Ukrainian drone experience suggests ongoing military-technical cooperation and knowledge transfer from international partners. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Diplomatic Initiative: Agreement on [Issue] between [Actors] (Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.56): No specific diplomatic initiatives or agreements are directly mentioned in the current intelligence update, but the context of ongoing conflict always allows for the possibility of such developments in the broader geopolitical sphere. This general belief suggests an underlying recognition of diplomatic efforts in the broader conflict.
  • Diplomatic Initiative: Proposal by [Actor] for [Action] (Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.16): Similar to the above, this indicates a general awareness of ongoing or potential diplomatic proposals related to the conflict.
  • Geopolitical Shift: Change in [Type of Support] from [Country] to [Recipient] (Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.08): This low confidence belief suggests that while changes in international support are always possible, there is no strong indication of a significant shift based on the current data.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

  • Eastern Axis: RUF will intensify efforts to secure the Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar and establish a bridgehead across the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal. This will involve combined arms assaults, likely employing small, agile assault groups supported by overwhelming artillery and air (glide bomb) cover. RUF will also likely attempt to consolidate and exploit gains on the Kostiantynivka direction, as claimed by the 255th Regiment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Northern Axis: RUF will maintain high-intensity fixing operations around Vovchansk and Lyptsi in Kharkiv Oblast, with continued heavy use of glide bombs and localized infantry probes to attrit UAF defenses and prevent redeployment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Sumy Direction: RUF will likely continue to build up forces and conduct shaping operations in Sumy Oblast, including increased KAB strikes and localized ground actions, to further stretch UAF resources and divert attention from the main effort in Donetsk. Active UAF drone operations in the area will persist. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Deep Strikes: RUF will continue systematic long-range strikes against Ukrainian TCCs, energy infrastructure, and other critical civilian targets to degrade mobilization and disrupt the home front. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

  • Northern Offensive: A coordinated, large-scale offensive by RUF ground forces, possibly leveraging new units observed moving towards Sumy, to open a new major front in Sumy Oblast or launch a renewed thrust directly towards Kharkiv city. Such an offensive would aim to significantly expand the front line and overwhelm UAF's defensive capabilities, potentially forcing a reallocation of critical reserves from other sectors. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
  • Breakthrough at Chasiv Yar: A rapid and decisive RUF breakthrough across the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal in Chasiv Yar, leading to the collapse of UAF defenses in the immediate area and rapid RUF advance towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka. This would necessitate a major UAF fighting withdrawal and repositioning, with significant loss of terrain and strategic depth. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

  • Chasiv Yar: RUF will likely attempt to consolidate control of Kanal microdistrict and attempt canal crossings within the next 24-72 hours. UAF decision point: Evaluate ability to hold Kanal microdistrict vs. planned withdrawal to western canal defenses.
  • Kharkiv/Sumy: Increased RUF activity in Sumy suggests potential for escalation within the next 72-96 hours. UAF decision point: Determine if RUF intent in Sumy is solely fixing or preparatory for a larger offensive, and allocate reserves accordingly.
  • TCC Strikes: Expect continued RUF strikes on TCCs and critical infrastructure in the coming week, requiring UAF to harden defenses and adapt recruitment strategies.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

6.1. Intelligence Gaps

  • RUF Reserve Composition (Eastern Axis): Lack of detailed information on the exact location, strength, and readiness of RUF operational reserves positioned behind the Chasiv Yar axis. Are they designated for exploitation, rotation, or to reinforce other sectors? (HIGH PRIORITY)
  • RUF Intent (Sumy/Kharkiv): Precise determination of RUF's strategic intent in the Sumy region. Is it purely a fixing operation, a new line of advance, or a diversion? Similarly, confirmation of the threshold or conditions for a renewed major RUF offensive towards Kharkiv city. (HIGH PRIORITY)
  • RUF Submarine Operational Status: Clarification on the actual readiness and operational capabilities of RUF submarines being deployed without firing. Are there technical issues, tactical constraints, or a deceptive posture? (MEDIUM PRIORITY)

6.2. Collection Requirements

  • ISR (IMINT/SIGINT/HUMINT): Prioritize collection on RUF rear areas in Belgorod, Kursk, and Sumy Oblasts for indicators of large-scale force build-up, logistics hubs, and troop movements (e.g., rail movements, convoy activity). Focus on identifying potential second-echelon forces. (HIGH PRIORITY)
  • ISR (UAV/OSINT): Task UAVs and open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts to monitor RUF activity around the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal for pre-assault preparations, bridging equipment, and likely crossing points. Monitor claimed RUF gains in Donetsk Oblast for verification. (HIGH PRIORITY)
  • SIGINT/HUMINT: Collect on RUF command and control communications to gain insights into their assessment of UAF defenses, tactical objectives, and planned offensive timelines in both eastern and northern axes. Prioritize efforts to understand the tactical decision-making process within RUF units, including any internal critiques or adaptations based on past incidents. (HIGH PRIORITY)
  • HUMINT: Develop sources within occupied territories to gather information on RUF logistics, morale, and personnel issues, particularly in areas near claimed RUF gains (Sobolivka, Poddubnoye, Tolstoy, Kostiantynivka direction). (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
  • OSINT/Media Monitoring: Monitor Russian military channels and state media for any further details or narratives regarding submarine operations or the rationale behind their deployment without engagement. (LOW PRIORITY)

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

  1. For Joint Operations Command (EAST):

    • Counter-Battery Priority: Immediately allocate maximum available counter-battery fire assets (artillery, HIMARS) to the Chasiv Yar axis to degrade Russian artillery and mortar positions, specifically targeting those interdicting GLOCs and supporting canal crossing attempts. Pre-plan fires on identified RUF concentration areas and potential crossing points along the canal.
    • Defensive Layering: Reinforce defensive positions west of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal in Chasiv Yar with additional anti-tank and anti-personnel obstacles to prepare for a potential RUF crossing. Conduct immediate re-evaluation of defensive lines and potential fall-back positions in the Kostiantynivka direction given reported RUF advances.
    • ISR Overmatch: Prioritize ISR assets (MALE UAVs, SIGINT) to maintain constant surveillance over key RUF maneuver areas and GLOCs within the Chasiv Yar sector to provide early warning of breakthrough attempts.

  2. For Joint Operations Command (NORTH):

    • Targeting FAB Platforms: Prioritize targeting of known RUF FAB glide bomb launch platforms (e.g., Su-34s and associated airfields/logistics) and their support infrastructure to reduce the volume of glide bomb attacks on Kharkiv and Sumy.
    • Reserve Allocation Review: Reassess the allocation of tactical and operational reserves in the Kharkiv-Sumy sector. Maintain high readiness for rapid deployment to counter any potential shift from fixing operations to a full-scale offensive. Accelerate provision of critical drone and associated equipment (generators, spare parts, goggles) to frontline units like 21st OMBr in Sumy direction.
    • Enhanced Counter-UAV/EW: Deploy additional anti-drone systems and EW capabilities to counter RUF's prevalent use of FPV and reconnaissance UAVs in this sector, particularly targeting their control points and drone repair/modernization facilities if identifiable.

  3. For General Staff (UAF):

    • Mobilization Strategy Adjustment: Conduct an urgent review of TCC operations and mobilization strategies to address public concerns and ensure the effective and equitable recruitment of personnel, mitigating the impact of RUF's propaganda and targeted strikes. Consider public-private partnerships to streamline equipment acquisition for frontline units.
    • Strategic Reserve Positioning: Maintain a flexible and readily deployable strategic reserve capable of reinforcing either the Eastern (Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk) or Northern (Kharkiv/Sumy) axis, given the uncertainty of RUF's main effort and MDCOA.
    • International Support Coordination: Advocate for accelerated delivery of advanced air defense systems (e.g., Patriot, NASAMS) to protect population centers and critical infrastructure from continued RUF deep strikes. Coordinate with partners to address the challenges posed by RUF EW capabilities and to leverage EU experience in drone warfare for UAF benefit.
    • Naval Assessment: Initiate a detailed assessment of RUF Black Sea Fleet submarine activity, correlating observed deployments with intelligence on their technical status and operational doctrine to anticipate potential future threats.
Previous (2025-07-06 16:03:51Z)

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