Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT 061303Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorodskyi District): RUF UAV attack confirmed, 3 injured. Damage to two multi-story residential buildings and vehicles. RUF sources (Dva Mayora) claim damage due to UAF AD actions, likely to shift blame. Civilian emergency services are actively engaged in liquidation of consequences of the attack. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kirovohrad Oblast (Znamyanka Community): Agricultural enterprise damaged by RUF attack, including farm buildings and equipment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkiv City/Chuhuiv/Konstantinovka): RUF strike UAVs (Shaheds) impacted Kharkiv city, 2 injured. One Shahed reportedly downed. Significant smoke plumes and intense orange glow observed. KABs launched towards Kharkiv Oblast, with Oleg Synehubov (Kharkiv ODA Head) reporting strikes on Kharkiv city and 13 settlements. RUF attacked rescuers during tasks in Kharkiv. New imagery from Colonelcassad shows significant fire damage in Chuhuiv, likely from a recent strike. Additionally, a civilian vehicle was attacked by an FPV drone, resulting in the death of a child. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF MoD claims liberation of Sobolivka in Kharkiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Vovchanski Khutory, Vovchansk, Odradne, Okhrimivka, Zybyne, Prykolotne and Khatnye. Clashes reported near Vovchansk and towards Ambarne. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Alex Parker Returns claims RUF liberated Sobolivka and are "taking Kupyansk in a bag." CONFIDENCE: LOW (Propaganda, encirclement of Kupyansk not confirmed). (Updated) RUF UAV threat reported in Kharkiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS (RUF source) claims RUF forces are cutting off UAF logistics under Kupyansk and encircling the UAF grouping, stating the situation is critical for Ukrainian soldiers. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM (RUF claim, likely exaggerated, but indicates intent to encircle). (Updated) RUF (AV БогомаZ) reports 21 UAF aircraft-type UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia killed a child in Kharkiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RBC-Ukraine reports two civilians injured from mine detonation in a forest belt area. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RBC-Ukraine reports double strike by Russians on Konstantinovka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro/Synelnykivskyi District): Ballistic missile threat from south lifted. UAF air defense reports shooting down 1 RUF UAV over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during the night. Situation in Kryvyi Rih controlled as of 0600Z, with local authorities (Олександр Вілкул) promoting civilian resilience. New threat reported: UAF Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons employment in Synelnykivskyi district. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Donetsk Oblast: No significant changes to battlefield geometry. RUF maintains pressure in Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Kurakhove, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Velyka Novosilka, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Siversk directions. Pokrovsk direction remains most active. RUF reports "cleanup" operations nearing completion in Poddubnoye (confirmed by Воин DV video showing aerial footage of contested settlement with Russian flags and explosions), implying RUF gains. RUF "Voenkor Russkoy Vesny" footage indicates operational presence and combat in Vuhledar, Klishchiivka, Artemivsk (Bakhmut), Chasiv Yar, and Soledar directions. RUF sources (Voins DV) claim destruction of UAF personnel by 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade on Shakhtarske direction (likely Vuhledar/south Donetsk). TASS (RUF source) reports that "liberation" of Chasiv Yar will lead to collapse of UAF defense towards Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Sloviansk, an aspirational claim. A new RUF video from Voins DV claims destruction of a UAF dugout near Voskresenka by 305th Guards Artillery Brigade. Recent RUF video (Два майора) shows soldiers in trenches on "Konstantinovsky direction" requesting supplies, indicating ongoing combat intensity. New imagery (Сливочный каприз) from Velika Novosilka shows continued activity. RUF MoD claims liberation of Poddubnoye in Donetsk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade reports repelling 42 attacks in Pokrovske direction (June 29 - July 5), eliminating 147 personnel. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF General Staff reports clashes near Poltavka, Malynivka, Novoekonomichne, Myrolubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Shevchenko, Razine, Horikhove, Dachne, Zvirove, Udachne, Novoserhiyivka, Muravka, Novopavlivka, Oleksiyivka and towards Volodymyrivka, Serhiyivka, Filiya and Pokrovsk (Pokrovsk direction). Clashes near Zirka, Tolstoy, Voskresenka, Zaporizhzhya, Shevchenko, Novopil (Novopavlivka direction). Clashes near Bila Hora, Chasiv Yar and Stupochky (Kramatorsk direction). Clashes near Toretsk, Dyliyivka, Rusyn Yar (Toretsk direction). Clashes near Serebryanka, Verkhnokamyanske, Hryhorivka and Ivano-Daryivka (Siversk direction). Clashes near Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Karpivka, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodyazi, Novyy Myr, Ridkodub, Myrne, Torske, Hryhorivka (Lyman direction). Clashes near Holubivka, Kindrashivka, Zahryzove, Zelenyy Hay and towards Kupyansk (Kupyansk direction). CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Kotsnews also claims RUF liberation of Sobolivka and Poddubnoye. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports Ukrainian grouping in Myrne, west of Donetsk, is in a "fire bag" after the liberation of Poddubnoye. This is a RUF claim of encirclement. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. (Updated) A video shows two teenagers on a pitbike crashing into a car in Kirovsky district of Donetsk; no military relevance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fact), LOW (Relevance). (Updated) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows "Chimeras" (UAF drones) targeting RUF equipment and personnel near Toretsk, indicating active UAF drone operations in this area. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a Russian Z-blogger's video exposed RUF positions near Toretsk, which were subsequently targeted by HIMARS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Narodnaya militsiya DNR (RUF source) shares drone video of UAF mortar positions being destroyed in Rusyn Yar. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• Kherson Oblast: TASS reports RUF "Dnepr" unit destroyed a Ukrainian M777 howitzer towed by a truck via thermal imaging drone footage. This suggests localized RUF drone and artillery activity. UAF Air Force reports missile danger in Kherson Oblast. RUF FPV drone strike on an OKKO gas station in Kherson. RUF also attacked rescuers in Kherson. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS (RUF source) claims UAF deployed seven brigades and a UAV strike battalion to the Kherson direction. CONFIDENCE: LOW (Propaganda). BТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows a Russian paratrooper attempting to cross a water body in "Kherson jungles," indicating continued RUF attempts at riverine infiltration. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF General Staff reports repelling 1 Russian army assault in Kherson direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Olhivka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Дневник Десантника reports activity in Kherson direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
• Mykolaiv Oblast: RUF strike UAVs (Shaheds) detected from Black Sea, moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast / Odesa Oblast. Explosions heard, reported shootdown of Shaheds. New group of RUF strike UAVs reported on the south of Mykolaiv Oblast moving north (AFU). Mykolaiv Vanok reports 4 "mopeds" entering city from Bolshaya Korenikha, 1 heading to Varvarovsky Bridge, then splitting towards city center, with one "minus 1" (shot down), and one remaining heading towards Zavodsky/Tsentralny district. A new "moped" also reported. Mykolaiv Vanok reports "minus" for mopeds over Mykolaiv, but also reports shrapnel falling on a house near the city center, with a possible casualty. New reports via Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны indicate another impact in Mykolaiv. RBC-Україна reports 1 injured in Mykolaiv, citing Kim. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows a significant explosion and smoke plume in Mykolaiv from a Shahed impact. Mayor reports city-wide damage. Mykolaiv Vanok video confirms damage to a bank building. "Voenkor Russkoy Vesny" footage shows RUF activity on Kinburn Spit. New imagery from RBC-Ukraine shows significant fire/damage from a strike in Mykolaiv. STERNENKO reports 2 injured in Mykolaiv, damage to 10 residential buildings, catering facility, and bank from Shahed attack. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Odesa Oblast: RUF strike UAVs (Shaheds) detected from Black Sea, moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast / Odesa Oblast. Ballistic missile threat from south lifted. UAF Naval Forces celebrated in Odesa, with record-breaking flag display, indicating continued UAF presence and morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Poltava Oblast: RUF strike UAVs (Shaheds) continue movement into Poltava Oblast from Sumy and southern Chernihiv. AFU reports "fast-moving target" from Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast. New groups of RUF UAVs (mopeds) reported on the south of Chernihiv region and Sumy region, moving towards Poltava region. UAF Air Force reports a group of strike UAVs in the center of Poltava region moving southwest. UAF Air Force reports strike UAVs approaching Kremenchuk from East and West. All previous UAV threats reported as cleared. Mykolaiv Vanok reports "minus" for mopeds over Kremenchuk. РБК-Україна reports a fire in a private household in Kremenchuk district, Poltava Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Shahed hit a TCC building and nearby residential building in Kremenchuk. UAF Ground Forces and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm strike on TCC building in Kremenchuk by UAV, approx 09:35 local time. New RUF source (Alex Parker Returns) confirms strike on TCC in Kremenchuk as the third such strike this week. New video (Оперативний ЗСУ) shows the moment of impact on the TCC building in Kremenchuk. Alex Parker Returns and Операция Z also share videos of the Kremenchuk TCC strike. Colonelcassad also posts video of the Kremenchuk TCC strike, explicitly stating "Another Geran arrived with a summons at the TCC building." Дневник Десантника posts photos and videos showing the TCC building in Kremenchuk on fire. WarGonzo also posts video claiming RUF attacked Ukrainian TCCs with "Gerans." CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) The number of victims from the Poltava strike on July 3rd has increased. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) ASTRA reports a woman died in Poltava from injuries sustained in the July 3rd strike. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RBC-Ukraine reports on the three Shahed strikes on TCCs over the past week, with imagery of a firefighter on a damaged roof. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
• Sumy Oblast: RUF tactical aviation continues KAB (glide bomb) launches. RUF strike UAVs continue to move west, with new groups specifically targeting Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts from Sumy. AFU reports KABs launched towards Sumy Oblast. AFU reports "fast-moving target" in Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast. A new group of RUF UAVs is confirmed on the south of Chernihiv region and Sumy region, moving towards Poltava region. A new group of RUF UAVs (mopeds) reported in eastern Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast. Ballistic missile threat from the East to Poltava Oblast reported. WarGonzo's "Frontline summary for the morning 06.07.2025" map shows active "Sumy Direction," indicating potential RUF intent for operations here. RUF sources (Дневник Десантника) claim UAF has redeployed new units to the Sumy direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF General Staff reports RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Boyaro-Lezhachi. UAF General Staff reports repelling 23 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports over 20 trucks with personnel being redeployed by RUF to Sumy region (Andryushchenko). The video shows trucks on a highway with signs to Taganrog/Rostov-on-Don and Melitopol/Simferopol, indicating movement from southern regions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Colonelcassad shares video of destroyed UAF personnel, identified as from the 48th Separate Engineer Brigade, in the Sumy direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• Vinnytsia Oblast: RUF strike UAVs (Shaheds) from southern Kyiv Oblast now moving towards Vinnytsia Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF attack on Zaporizhzhia and Zaporizhzhia district around 02:00 resulted in damage to a private enterprise, a farming enterprise, and warehouses from 5 Shahed UAVs. One 89-year-old female civilian injured. Three multi-story buildings in Zaporizhzhia also sustained damage. Air raid alert lifted. Ballistic missile threat from south lifted. Significant impacts observed. Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration issues new alert for ballistic missile threat from the East. "Voenkor Russkoy Vesny" video shows significant orange glow over Zaporizhzhia. Kotsnews (RUF source) posts video of an FPV drone strike on a damaged building in Zaporizhzhia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF sources (Дневник Десантника) suggesting "forced evacuation" of local gauleiters in Zaporizhzhia due to RUF activation on the front. CONFIDENCE: LOW (Propaganda). Air raid alert lifted as of 08:59Z. RUF aviation conducted airstrikes at Bilohirya, Stepnohirsk. Clashes near Kamyanske (Orikhiv direction) and Malynivka (Huliaipole direction). CONFIDENCE: HIGH. STERNENKO video shows UAF drones destroying RUF artillery and logistics in Zaporizhzhia direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF Підрозділ Shadow posts drone video showing successful strike on RUF enemy dugout. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports RUF attacked Polohivskyi district with an FPV drone. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports on a week of aid to the Zaporizhzhia front, including drones, vehicles, and thermal imagers. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) STERNENKO reports Ronin's of the 65th Separate Motorized Brigade continue to destroy enemy logistics and personnel in Zaporizhzhia direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• Russian Territory:
  • Belgorod Oblast (RU): Local authorities report UAF drone attack on a bus and two vehicles, resulting in casualties. Andrey Marochko (RUF source via TASS) claims RUF forces advanced 2km on a new front section at the junction of Belgorod and Kharkiv Oblasts. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. Governor Gladkov reports 6 people injured in Belgorod Oblast in the last 24 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Bryansk Oblast (RU): Governor reports 30 UAF aircraft-type UAVs detected and destroyed by RUF AD. Governor БогомаZ posts images of poppy fields for opium production, no military relevance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (UAVs), LOW (Poppy field). RUF (AV БогомаZ) reports 21 UAF aircraft-type UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
  • Kaluga Oblast (RU): Governor Shapsha (via TASS and ASTRA) reports 5 UAF UAVs destroyed by RUF AD, no casualties. Airport restrictions lifted. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS reports restrictions on air traffic introduced at Kaluga airport. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
  • Krasnodar Krai (Novorossiysk): RUF sources (Dva Mayora) report UAF attack on Novorossiysk by USVs throughout the night, confirmed by city head. Previous UAF video showed smoke plumes. UAF media publishes new video of explosions in Novorossiysk, indicating successful USV attacks (ASTRA). RUF sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, Военкор Котенок) publish videos of explosions over water and emergency services, confirming attacks on Novorossiysk. RUF sources now claiming attacks "successfully repelled". New RUF imagery (Colonelcassad) shows a destroyed USV in Novorossiysk. This confirms UAF attack and RUF AD response. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (UAF attack confirmed), MEDIUM (RUF claim of successful repel for some targets).
  • Kursk Oblast (RU): Alexander Khinshtein officially nominated as a candidate for governor of Kursk Oblast, indicating political stability efforts despite military concerns. Putin posthumously names 155th Kursk Marine Brigade after Twice Hero of Russia Gudkov (ТАСС), linking the unit to the Kursk region. New RUF source (Операция Z) confirms the posthumous naming of 155th Marine Brigade. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fact). LOW (Relevance directly to conflict). Colonelcassad also reports on this award. Mikhail Gudkov, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy for Coastal Troops, died in Kursk Oblast and is the first twice Hero of Russia in modern history. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF General Staff reports repelling 23 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Дневник Десантника reports activity in Kursk Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RUF source "Старше Эдды" celebrates Mikhail Gudkov as the first "Twice Hero" of Russia posthumously, indicating strong propaganda focus on military heroes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Colonelcassad shares video of Putin honoring Mikhail Gudkov and naming the 155th Marine Brigade after him. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
  • Lipetsk Oblast (RU - Yelets and Yelets district): Red and yellow levels of "UAV attack threat" lifted. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Moscow Oblast (RU): Новости Москвы reports high temperatures up to +35°C. No military relevance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fact). LOW (Relevance). Новости Москвы also states aviation between Moscow and St. Petersburg is practically halted. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports FPK (Federal Passenger Company) is monitoring free seats on trains between Moscow and St. Petersburg and can increase wagons if needed, suggesting a shift to rail transport due to air travel disruptions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports Putin arrived at the "All for Victory!" forum organized by the Popular Front in Moscow. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fact), LOW (Relevance). (Updated) Putin honored a minute of silence for General Gudkov and all fallen soldiers in the SVO at the forum. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) TASS reports Putin at "All for Victory!" forum. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition also reports Putin at the forum. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
  • Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (RU): Rosaviatsiya reports 12 flights cancelled at Nizhny Novgorod airport over past 24 hours. Rosaviatsiya now reports restrictions lifted for Nizhny Novgorod airport. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Alex Parker Returns posts video from Nizhny Novgorod airport showing individuals in high-visibility vests labeled "subject to deportation," indicating potential migrant issues or forced returns, no direct military relevance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS and ASTRA report temporary restrictions introduced at Nizhny Novgorod airport. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
  • Pskov Oblast (RU): Governor reports temporary restrictions introduced at Pskov airport due to UAV threat. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
  • Leningrad Oblast (RU - Ust-Luga): Governor reports threat of UAV danger in Leningrad Oblast. Operational ZSU reports explosion and ammonia leak on Eco Wizard tanker in Ust-Luga port. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
  • St. Petersburg (Pulkovo Airport): Оперативний ЗСУ reports mass delays and cancellations at Pulkovo airport, likely due to UAV threats (implied "Kovyor" plan). STERNENKO reports collapse in Russian airports, including Pulkovo and Sheremetyevo, with mass cancellations and delays. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Governor reports threat of UAV danger in Leningrad Oblast which includes St. Petersburg. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
  • General (RU): RUF MoD claims 120 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions and the Sea of Azov overnight (Dnevnik Desantnika, Военкор Котенок). This is a significant increase in reported intercepts and highly likely exaggerated. ASTRA (RUF source) also reports the 120 UAV claim. UAF deep strikes continue to affect Russian air travel, with head of ATOR (Association of Tour Operators of Russia) Maya Lomidze stating direct flights with USA may take prolonged time to resume. Russian Ministry of Transport states airports are gradually returning to scheduled operation. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM (Claim of 120 UAVs downed), HIGH (UAF deep strike persistence), HIGH (Airport operations). UAF Air Force reports neutralizing 117/157 RUF UAVs (98 shot down, 19 EW/lost) and 4 S-300 missiles. This contrasts with RUF claims and clarifies numbers. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Large queues at Crimean Bridge (TASS) suggest continued civilian movement despite military activity. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF MoD claims 39 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over six regions in Russia between 08:30 and 14:00 MSK. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports on the results of strikes on Borisoglebsk airfield on July 5th, with satellite imagery showing possible damage indicators, although the extent is unclear from the provided image. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. (Updated) TASS reports Putin claims Russian drones destroyed more than $2 billion worth of enemy equipment. CONFIDENCE: LOW (Unverifiable RUF claim). (New) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares video of Putin at "Kulibin-club." CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) Putin states Russia's domestic innovations in military tech often surpass NATO equivalents. CONFIDENCE: LOW (Propaganda). (New)
  • Krasnoyarsk (RU): Alex Parker Returns video shows apprehension of two individuals related to an alleged sexual assault. No direct military relevance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fact). LOW (Relevance).
  • Dagestan (RU - Buynaksk): A teenager was arrested in connection with an alleged attempt to commit a terrorist act near an МВД (Ministry of Internal Affairs) building. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. This is a domestic security issue, not directly related to military operations in Ukraine. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны also reports this. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS reports the arrest of the head of Karabudakhkent district, Dagestan, on fraud charges, indicating internal security issues. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
  • Murmansk Oblast (RU): Criminal case opened over the death of two people during a trail run. No direct military relevance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fact). LOW (Relevance). (Updated)
  • Novosibirsk (RU): Alex Parker Returns video shows an individual speaking defiantly, stating no one can do anything to him, indicating social tension or extremism. No direct military relevance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fact). LOW (Relevance). (Updated) Alex Parker Returns video also shows a physical confrontation, confirming civilian incident. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fact). LOW (Relevance). (Updated)
• Black Sea: A new group of RUF strike UAVs (Shaheds) detected from the Black Sea, moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast / Odesa Oblast. Additional 3 new "moped" UAVs detected in the Black Sea, en route to Kinburn Spit/Dmytrivka/Parutyne. RUF Naval activity in the Black Sea includes 1 ship, 1 frigate, 1 missile carrier (bearing 8 Kalibr missiles) and 1 patrol ship. No missile carriers in the Sea of Azov. UAF Air Force reports activity of RUF tactical aviation in the Azov Sea. A video from Fighterbomber (RUF source) shows a helicopter over a beach, indicating RUF air force activity over coastal areas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Fighterbomber shares photo of a helicopter over the sea. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• Armenia (Yerevan): Rybar reports a "March for Samvel Karapetyan" with protestors and police presence. Rybar states it is diversifying content to Africa. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fact). LOW (Relevance to Conflict). ASTRA reports Armenia rejected GUR Ukraine's statement about increased Russian military presence in Gyumri. This highlights Armenian government attempts to manage international perception regarding its ties with Russia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Yemen: Houthi claim of hypersonic ballistic missile strike on Ben Gurion Airport (TASS) is noted, but no direct relevance to Ukraine conflict. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fact of claim), LOW (Relevance).
• Kazakhstan: Alex Parker Returns implies Kazakhstan is siding with Azerbaijan in the Russia-Azerbaijan conflict, based on Kazakh press. This indicates potential geopolitical shifts affecting RUF regional influence. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. Alex Parker Returns shares a political cartoon implying Kazakh support for Azerbaijan against Russia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• Iran: Басурин о главном reports Iran received its first J-10C fourth-generation fighter from China. This indicates ongoing military-technical cooperation between China and Iran, potentially relevant to regional stability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Hungary: RBC-Ukraine reports a bus with Ukrainian children involved in a traffic accident. No military relevance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fact). LOW (Relevance). ASTRA also reports on the bus accident. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RBC-Ukraine reports 21 people were injured in the bus accident in Hungary, with four Ukrainians seriously injured. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
• Slovenia: Rybar reports Slovenia is considering leaving NATO. CONFIDENCE: LOW (Unverified RUF source, likely propaganda). (Updated)
• Afghanistan: ASTRA reports the first Russian-Taliban film will be shot in Afghanistan. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fact, indicates Russia's growing ties to Taliban). LOW (Relevance to Ukraine Conflict). (Updated)
• Moldova: TASS reports the Moldovan "Victory" bloc will apply to participate in parliamentary elections next week. No military relevance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fact), LOW (Relevance). (Updated) TASS reports the "Victory" bloc is starting to collect signatures for an alliance with Russia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Ukraine (General): Continued widespread RUF aerial attacks (UAVs, KABs, ballistic missile threats) across multiple oblasts, particularly new strikes in Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorodskyi District, 3 injured), Kharkiv city (2 injured, plus child killed), Kirovohrad (Znamyanka, agricultural enterprise damaged), Mykolaiv (2 injured, damage confirmed), and confirmed damage from 5 Shaheds in Zaporizhzhia (1 injured, 3 multi-story buildings damaged), and Kremenchuk (TCC/residential damage). Air raid alerts lifted in some areas, but new alerts for Poltava/Chernihiv/Sumy and missile danger in Kherson indicate fluctuating aerial threat. KAB launches towards Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts will cause localized air quality issues. Immediate threat of ballistic missile from South (now lifted) and fast-moving target in Sumy Oblast underscores continued air defense posture requirements. UAF AD reports clear skies and successful UAV intercept over Dnipropetrovsk. New ballistic missile threat from the East to Poltava Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast reported, but now lifted. Confirmed damage to a gas station in Kherson from an FPV drone strike indicates localized fires and smoke. New fire reported in Kremenchuk district. New threat of aviation weapons use in Synelnykivskyi district of Dnipropetrovsk. The ongoing fires at the Kremenchuk TCC, confirmed by photo and video, are generating significant smoke. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Video from Kharkiv shows emergency services working in the aftermath of night strikes, with debris and damaged structures visible, confirming localized environmental impact. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) A video shows a UAF vehicle hit by an FPV drone, resulting in fire and smoke, indicating localized environmental effects of combat. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows significant destruction of a building, likely a warehouse or industrial facility, possibly in Polohivskyi district. This suggests widespread localized environmental impact from combat. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RBC-Ukraine imagery of a firefighter on a damaged roof in Kremenchuk confirms significant fire damage. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RBC-Ukraine shares video of drone targeting rescuers in Kharkiv, showing smoke and debris. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) Narodnaya militsiya DNR (RUF source) video shows smoke and dust from mortar impacts in Rusyn Yar. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• Russian Territory: Continued UAF UAV/USV strikes into Russian territory, including direct impacts (Novorossiysk USVs throughout the night, confirmed by new video), and widespread flight restrictions/delays (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Lipetsk, Kaluga, Pulkovo, Pskov, Leningrad), are causing localized air quality issues, infrastructure damage, and significant disruptions to civilian air travel. RUF claims of 120 UAVs downed over various regions implies significant air defense operations leading to debris. Weather in Moscow is reported to be hot (+35°C), which could affect personnel performance if deployed in open areas. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Aviation between Moscow and St. Petersburg is practically halted, indicating significant airspace closure due to weather or threat. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Explosion and ammonia leak on a tanker in Ust-Luga port would cause significant environmental contamination and localized air quality issues. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
• Black Sea: UAV operations originating from the Black Sea suggest calm maritime conditions favorable for drone launches. UAF USV/UAV attack on Novorossiysk indicates favorable conditions for maritime drone operations. The presence of RUF naval vessels in the Black Sea, including a missile carrier, indicates operational maritime conditions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RUF Dispositions:
  • Aerial Assets: Active and widespread employment of strike UAVs (Shaheds) across Ukraine, originating from Sumy/Southern Chernihiv (moving towards Poltava), and the Black Sea (moving towards Mykolaiv, Odesa, and specific locations like Kinburn Spit). Confirmed Shahed impacts in Kharkiv (2 injured, plus child killed), Zaporizhzhia (5 Shaheds, 1 injured, 3 multi-story buildings damaged), Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorodskyi District, 3 injured), and Kremenchuk (TCC/residential damage). Confirmed FPV drone strike on a gas station in Kherson and a civilian vehicle in Kharkiv (resulting in casualty), and in Polohivskyi district. Continued KAB (glide bomb) launches into Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia. Ballistic missile threat from the south (now lifted). Ballistic missile threat for Kyiv also lifted. Missile danger reported in Kherson Oblast. New ballistic missile threat from the East to Poltava Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast, now lifted. RUF video shows tactical drone (Supercam S350) reconnaissance, indicating ISR capabilities. Tactical aviation active in North-Eastern direction (UAF Air Force). Threat of aviation weapons employment in Synelnykivskyi district. MoD Russia video shows training of UAV specialists from 20th Combined Arms Army for FPV drone operations, indicating continued focus on tactical UAV capabilities. RUF aviation continues airstrikes across Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. MoD Russia video shows specialists of 1st Guards Engineer Brigade repairing and modernizing drones for combat operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. WarGonzo video confirms RUF capability to destroy armored vehicles with KVN drones. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RUF UAV threat reported in Kharkiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) A video from "Старше Эдды" shows a thermal drone, possibly Russian, flying with a targeting reticle, indicating continued RUF drone reconnaissance/targeting capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) "Воин DV" video shows what appears to be RUF drone footage tracking military vehicles and a burning vehicle, implying active reconnaissance and strike capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition shows a thermal camera with a crosshair, implying RUF reconnaissance and targeting capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Басурин о главном shows video of a DJI Flycart 100 drone being assembled, suggesting RUF acquisition of heavy-lift drones for supply or strike. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) Народная милиция ДНР (RUF source) shares drone video of UAF mortar positions being destroyed. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
  • Ground Forces: Persistent ground operations in Donbas (Pokrovsk, Siversk, Novopavlivsk). Reports of RUF forces advancing 2km at the Belgorod/Kharkiv junction and "cleanup" in Poddubnoye (west of Poddubnoye) suggest localized RUF gains, confirmed by video. Chechen "Akhmat" units are reported to be arriving in Kharkiv. TASS (RUF source) claims UAF deployed seven brigades and a UAV strike battalion to the Kherson direction, suggesting RUF anticipates or is responding to UAF ground activity there. RUF soldiers in trenches (Два майора video) show ongoing presence on the frontline. RUF sources (Дневник Десантника) claim UAF has redeployed new units to the Sumy direction, implying active RUF observation and presence there. BТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows a Russian paratrooper operating in "Kherson jungles," indicating continued small-unit ground activity in the area. RUF MoD claims liberation of Sobolivka (Kharkiv) and Poddubnoye (Donetsk). CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Дневник Десантника claims UAF redeployed two additional brigades to Kharkiv direction. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. "Отважные" (RUF O group) FPV drone video shows targeting of UAF personnel who "just landed." New video shows RUF destroying UAF personnel and an ammunition depot. RUF video shows soldiers in trenches on "Konstantinovsky direction" thanking "DVA MAJORS" channel for supplies, including generators and communication devices, highlighting reliance on public support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports over 20 trucks with personnel being redeployed by RUF to Sumy region, with video showing the convoy. This confirms ground force movement towards the Sumy axis. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Colonelcassad shares video of destroyed UAF personnel, identified as from the 48th Separate Engineer Brigade, in the Sumy direction, implying RUF ground force effectiveness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Дневник Десантника video shows RUF tanks operating in what appears to be a combat zone, firing, and moving, indicating active engagement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Colonelcassad video shows Putin inspecting a military all-terrain motorcycle for casualty evacuation, indicating a focus on logistics and personnel support for ground operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны shows video of Putin inspecting military vehicles, including armored ones, confirming their focus on ground mobility and evacuation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition also shows video of Putin inspecting military vehicles. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
  • Naval Assets: Active presence in the Black Sea, including 1 ship, 1 frigate, 1 missile carrier (bearing 8 Kalibr missiles), and 1 patrol ship. Implied presence of naval platforms in the Black Sea for Shahed launches. No missile carriers in the Sea of Azov. Putin posthumously awards Mikhail Gudkov, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy for Coastal Troops, a second "Golden Star" of Hero of Russia, and names the 155th Kursk Marine Brigade after him, indicating high-level recognition for naval leadership/sacrifice and linking naval infantry to Kursk. Putin congratulating naval and river fleet workers highlights the importance of naval assets. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• RUF Control Measures: Air restrictions/warnings continue in various Russian regions due to UAV/USV threat (e.g., Novorossiysk, Lipetsk, Kaluga, Pulkovo, Pskov, Leningrad), though some have been lifted (Nizhny Novgorod, general airport operations), indicates reactive air defense measures. RUF MoD claims 120 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions and the Sea of Azov, indicating widespread AD activity. TASS reports change in official name for Communist Party of Russia (KPRF), indicating political-administrative control. RUF MoD issues daily progress reports on the special military operation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Aviation between Moscow and St. Petersburg is practically halted. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Nizhny Novgorod airport has temporary restrictions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports FPK (Federal Passenger Company) is monitoring free seats on trains between Moscow and St. Petersburg and can increase wagons if needed, suggesting a shift to rail transport due to air travel disruptions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports Putin will discuss allowing civilian doctors to work in military hospitals near the front line, indicating a C2 focus on military medical support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports restrictions on air traffic introduced at Kaluga airport. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• UAF Dispositions:
  • Air Defense (AD): Active AD system tracking and reporting on RUF UAVs, KABs, and ballistic missile threats across multiple oblasts. Reported shootdown of "mopeds" in Mykolaiv and Kharkiv. Air raid alerts lifted in Kyiv (previously) and Zaporizhzhia (recently). All previous UAV threats reported as cleared, but new alerts for Poltava/Chernihiv/Sumy are active. AFU has issued warnings for fast-moving targets from Sumy towards Poltava. Ballistic missile threats lifted (including recent threat to Poltava/Zaporizhzhia). UAF AD reported downing 1 RUF UAV over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports neutralizing 117/157 RUF UAVs (98 shot down, 19 EW/lost) and 4 S-300 missiles. This contrasts with RUF claims and clarifies numbers. Mykolaiv Vanok reports "minus" for mopeds over Mykolaiv and Kremenchuk. STERNENKO reports Azov Air Defense unit shot down 24 "Molniyas" (likely refers to UAVs). CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Оперативний ЗСУ video shows anti-drone tarp ineffective against attack drone, highlighting the need for adaptive countermeasures. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
  • UAV/USV Operations (Deep Strike): UAF is conducting persistent deep strikes into Belgorod Oblast targeting ground transport, and attacks into Krasnodar Krai (Novorossiysk) by USVs, and Kaluga Oblast (5 UAVs downed). Widespread flight delays/cancellations in Russian airports (Pulkovo, Nizhny Novgorod, Pskov, Leningrad) suggest continued UAF deep strike activity. New video confirms successful USV attacks in Novorossiysk. RUF reports confirm significant UAF UAV activity against Russian territory (Bryansk, general). New RUF imagery (Colonelcassad) confirms a destroyed USV in Novorossiysk. STERNENKO video shows "Bikers Team" (Flying Skull battalion) drone operations. New STERNENKO video shows "Kharakterniky" unit of "Kryla OMEGY" destroying RUF artillery and logistics with drones in Zaporizhzhia direction. UAF Підрозділ Shadow posts drone video showing successful strike on RUF enemy dugout. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) STERNENKO reports a delivery of 450 drones to the military, highlighting continued UAF drone supply. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) STERNENKO provides video of drone delivery to the 65th Mechanized Brigade's 'Ronin' battalion, confirming specific unit receiving equipment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RUF source) acknowledges continued UAF efforts to collect funds for "Mavics" (drones), implying ongoing UAF drone activity. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Оперативний ЗСУ video shows a UAF vehicle hit by an FPV drone, but the team evacuated, demonstrating resilience. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows FPV drones of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade targeting RUF infantry and mortar positions, indicating active UAF FPV drone operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports on the results of strikes on Borisoglebsk airfield on July 5th, with satellite imagery showing possible damage indicators. This indicates continued UAF deep strike capabilities. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. (Updated) DeepState confirms an ongoing fundraising campaign for SIGNUM unit's FPV drones, indicating continued UAF reliance on and procurement of drones. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Оперативний ЗСУ reports an explosion and ammonia leak on the Eco Wizard tanker in Ust-Luga port. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports on a week of aid to the Zaporizhzhia front, with imagery of various drones, indicating successful procurement and deployment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) STERNENKO shares video of Ronin's of the 65th Separate Motorized Brigade conducting drone strikes in Zaporizhzhia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) Zelenskyy signs new sanctions package targeting Russian financial schemes, including crypto, as a form of economic warfare. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
  • Naval Forces: UAF celebrates Naval Forces Day, showcasing patrol boats and personnel, indicating continued coastal and riverine operational presence. KMVA posts photos showing the Ukrainian Navy flag raised in Kyiv. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
  • Force Generation: RUF source (Colonelcassad) claims three ground brigades have been included in the formation of the 17th Army Corps of the UAF. Colonelcassad also shares videos of RUF soldiers appealing for humanitarian aid, including for the 21st Guards Motor Rifle Regiment, 1st Guards Tank Army, and "Z-Parabellum" (Zaporizhzhia direction stormtroopers), indicating ongoing RUF force generation and sustainment challenges. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM (RUF source on UAF 17th Corps, likely propaganda with a kernel of truth about force generation; HIGH for RUF appeals). 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade provides weekly combat report detailing enemy losses (147 personnel, 113 drones, 4 armored vehicles etc.) in Pokrovske direction. BТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows a captured Russian soldier who surrendered to a drone. Zelenskyy releases video highlighting 8 stages of prisoner exchanges since June, with hundreds returned. Zaporizhzhia ODA and Kharkiv ODA reposted the same video, indicating coordinated information efforts. The Koordynatsijnyy Shtab reports 8 stages of prisoner exchanges since June, with hundreds returned. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) UAF General Staff shares photos of a smiling soldier, likely for morale boosting purposes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fact), LOW (Relevance). (Updated) Дневник Десантника (RUF source) shares video of UAF soldiers from the 104th Airborne Assault Battalion appealing for donations for a vehicle, indicating continued reliance on public support for some equipment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Военкор Котенок shares video of UAF soldiers appealing for sniper rifles. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• UAF Control Measures: Issuance and lifting of air raid alerts nationwide based on RUF aerial activity, including new alerts for Shaheds in Poltava/Chernihiv/Sumy. Alerts for Kharkiv city, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia in response to current Shahed attacks. All previous UAV threats reported as cleared. UAF AFU has issued warnings for KABs towards Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. AFU immediately issued a ballistic threat warning from the East (subsequently lifted) and a fast-moving target warning for Sumy/Poltava. New ballistic threat warning from the East for Poltava and Zaporizhzhia (now lifted). General Staff reports 170 combat engagements over the past 24 hours. General Staff reports estimated RUF losses (1180 personnel) for 05-06 JUL, indicating continued high intensity of combat. Situation in Kryvyi Rih reported as controlled. Ukrainian General Staff also releasing image of total Russian losses. Martial Law and General Mobilization to be extended for the 16th time (until November 5, 2025). Оперативний ЗСУ states main goal of RUF TCC strikes is to disrupt mobilization, and strikes may continue. UAF General Staff provides updated reports on clashes across all major fronts, including South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Kherson, Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy). UAF MFA states Ukraine will not accept limitations, likely referring to negotiations on territory or NATO membership. RBC-Ukraine reports a TCC military personnel was beaten in Rivne Oblast during a document check, highlighting civilian resistance to mobilization efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RBC-Ukraine shares photos from emergency services showing the aftermath of the Kremenchuk strike, indicating UAF response and damage assessment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a TCC military personnel being beaten in Rivne Oblast, indicating UAF awareness of internal challenges. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Оперативний ЗСУ reports on a TCC military personnel being beaten in Rivne Oblast during a document check, providing imagery, indicating a challenge to UAF mobilization efforts and control. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RBC-Ukraine reports the MFA named two main tasks for Ukraine in negotiations with Russians, indicating a diplomatic control measure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports on a week of aid to the Zaporizhzhia front, indicating organized volunteer support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Oleg Synehubov shares video of Zelenskyy signing sanctions package, demonstrating coordinated government action. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)

1.4. Intelligence Gaps:

• PIR 1 (HIGH): Confirm exact composition (unit types, armored vehicles, artillery systems), strength, and readiness levels of RUF forces concentrating near Sudzha, Kursk Oblast, and their intent for an incursion into Sumy Oblast. This includes verifying the scale and specific units of the reported "20+ trucks with personnel." Collection Requirement: Persistent multi-source ISR (SATINT, SIGINT, IMINT, HUMINT if possible, OSINT) on RUF force generation, movement patterns, and logistical staging areas in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. Focus on indicators of imminent cross-border movement. This remains the #1 Intelligence Priority.
• PIR 2 (MEDIUM): Assess the specific types, launch locations, and targets of ballistic missiles employed from the eastern axis, and whether this axis is now capable of sustained launches. Determine if the "fast-moving target" in Sumy is ballistic or a high-speed UAV. Collection Requirement: SIGINT and ELINT to pinpoint launch signatures and trajectories; IMINT of potential launch sites; forensic analysis of impact sites.
• PIR 3 (MEDIUM): Determine the full impact of UAF deep strikes on RUF logistical networks in Belgorod, Lipetsk, Tula, Moscow, Kaluga, Nizhny Novgorod, St. Petersburg, Pskov, Leningrad and Krasnodar Krai (Novorossiysk). Collection Requirement: Post-strike BDA, IMINT of road networks, airport, and port operations, HUMINT from local population (if safe).
• PIR 4 (LOW): Monitor for any indicators of RUF preparation or intent for the use of non-conventional weapons. Collection Requirement: All-source intelligence, particularly HUMINT, SIGINT, and OSINT from Russian military and political discourse.
• PIR 5 (LOW): Confirm the scale and nature of any RUF gains at the Belgorod/Kharkiv junction and in the Poddubnoye area, and the capture of Sobolivka. Collection Requirement: IMINT, UAV reconnaissance, and ground force reporting.
• PIR 6 (HIGH): Confirm the origin, trajectory, and type of ballistic missile threat that recently affected Kyiv and was subsequently lifted. Assess if this was a new launch point or system, or a re-engagement from a previously observed vector. Collection Requirement: SIGINT and ELINT on launch signatures; AD radar tracking; forensic analysis of potential impact sites if applicable.
• PIR 7 (MEDIUM): Confirm the type and trajectory of the missile threat currently active in Kherson Oblast. Determine if it is a conventional ballistic missile, cruise missile, or an air-launched munition. Collection Requirement: AD radar tracking; SIGINT; forensic analysis of impact sites if applicable.
• PIR 8 (LOW): Assess the claimed formation of UAF's 17th Army Corps, including its true composition and readiness, and the alleged redeployment of two additional UAF brigades to Kharkiv. Determine RUF's intelligence capabilities and potential disinformation efforts. Collection Requirement: UAF internal reports, HUMINT, open-source intelligence monitoring for indicators of new unit formations or reorganizations.
• PIR 9 (MEDIUM): Determine the full extent of damage and casualties from RUF attacks on emergency services and civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad, and Kremenchuk. Collection Requirement: UAF damage assessment reports, OSINT (local media, social media), HUMINT from affected areas.
• PIR 10 (MEDIUM): Determine the specific aviation assets active in the Synelnykivskyi district of Dnipropetrovsk and their intent (reconnaissance, strike, or electronic warfare). Collection Requirement: AD radar tracking, SIGINT.
• PIR 11 (MEDIUM): Assess the veracity and implications of RUF claims regarding a concealed incident at the South Ukrainian NPP. Collection Requirement: IAEA reports, UAF internal reports, satellite imagery, and independent OSINT analysis for corroboration or refutation.
• PIR 12 (LOW): Confirm the alleged encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Myrne, west of Donetsk, by RUF forces. Collection Requirement: IMINT, UAV reconnaissance, ground force reporting from the area.
• PIR 13 (LOW): Assess the impact of anti-drone tarps on FPV drone effectiveness and thermal detection. Collection Requirement: UAF tactical reports, BDA, and technical analysis of encountered counter-drone measures.
• PIR 14 (LOW): Verify RUF claims about Slovenia considering leaving NATO. Collection Requirement: Diplomatic reporting, official government statements, and reputable international media.
• PIR 15 (MEDIUM): Confirm the extent of damage and impact on operations at Borisoglebsk airfield. Collection Requirement: High-resolution IMINT, SIGINT (analysis of changes in air activity/signatures), and OSINT from local sources.
• PIR 16 (MEDIUM): Assess the full extent of damage and operational impact of the explosion and ammonia leak on the Eco Wizard tanker in Ust-Luga port. Collection Requirement: Satellite imagery, port activity monitoring, and OSINT from local sources.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Aerial Strike (UAVs/KABs/Ballistic/FPV): RUF possesses robust and persistent capabilities for widespread aerial attacks, now with strike UAVs (Shaheds) from both northern (Sumy/Chernihiv) and southern (Black Sea) axes, KABs, ballistic missile threats, and localized FPV drone strikes against civilian infrastructure (Kherson gas station, Mykolaiv, Kremenchuk, Kharkiv civilian vehicle, Polohivskyi district). This allows for multi-directional pressure and the ability to target across the depth of Ukrainian territory, including major urban centers like Kyiv and Kharkiv. Confirmed damage and increased casualties in Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorodskyi District, 3 injured), Kharkiv (2 injured, plus 1 child killed), Kirovohrad (Znamyanka, agricultural enterprise damaged), and confirmed damage in Zaporizhzhia (5 Shaheds, 1 injured, 3 multi-story buildings damaged), and Kremenchuk (TCC/residential building). Confirmed KAB launches towards Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts further underscore this capability. Continued reports of missile danger (Kherson) and successful UAV intercepts (Dnipropetrovsk) reinforce these capabilities. New ballistic threats to Poltava and Zaporizhzhia from the East, now lifted, indicate expanded ballistic missile capabilities. UAF reports 157 aerial targets (UAVs and S-300 missiles) indicating continued high volume. Active tactical aviation in North-Eastern direction suggests air-launched munitions capability. MoD Russia video showing FPV drone training confirms emphasis on these capabilities. FPV drones from "Отважные" group actively targeting UAF personnel. RUF aviation conducted airstrikes in Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. MoD Russia video shows specialists of 1st Guards Engineer Brigade repairing and modernizing drones, indicating continued high-end drone capability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. WarGonzo video confirms RUF capability to destroy armored vehicles with KVN drones. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RUF UAV threat reported in Kharkiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) A video from "Старше Эдды" shows a thermal drone, possibly Russian, flying with a targeting reticle, indicating continued RUF drone reconnaissance/targeting capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) "Воин DV" video shows what appears to be RUF drone footage tracking military vehicles and a burning vehicle, implying active reconnaissance and strike capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition shows a thermal camera with a crosshair, implying RUF reconnaissance and targeting capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports Putin claims Russian drones destroyed more than $2 billion worth of enemy equipment, highlighting their drone capabilities. CONFIDENCE: LOW (Unverifiable RUF claim). (New) Басурин о главном shows a DJI Flycart 100 drone being unboxed, indicating heavy-lift drone capability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) Narodnaya militsiya DNR (RUF source) shows drone footage of mortar destruction, confirming targeting capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
  • Ground Offensive: RUF maintains capacity for attritional ground operations in Donbas and has demonstrated localized gains at the Belgorod/Kharkiv junction and near Poddubnoye, supported by glide bombs. Confirmed video of Poddubnoye capture. Continued high combat engagement rate (170 in 24 hrs) and reported RUF losses (1180) indicate sustained ground offensive capacity. RUF video showing FPV strike on a dugout indicates tactical drone integration with ground units. RUF requests for aid from ground units (Colonelcassad, Два майора) suggest ongoing ground force sustainment needs. BТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows continued RUF attempts at riverine infiltration in Kherson, indicating adaptive ground tactics. RUF claims liberation of Sobolivka (Kharkiv) and Poddubnoye (Donetsk). RUF still capable of supporting ground forces with supplies from volunteers as seen in "Konstantinovsky direction" video. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS claims Ukrainian grouping in Myrne is in a "fire bag," suggesting an ongoing encirclement capability or intent. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. (Updated) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports over 20 trucks with personnel being redeployed by RUF to Sumy region, demonstrating force projection capability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Colonelcassad shares video of destroyed UAF personnel, identified as from the 48th Separate Engineer Brigade, in the Sumy direction, implying RUF ground force effectiveness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Дневник Десантника video shows RUF tanks operating in what appears to be a combat zone, firing, and moving, indicating active engagement and offensive capability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Colonelcassad video shows Putin inspecting military equipment for casualty evacuation, indicating focus on enhancing ground force sustainment and survival. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны shows Putin inspecting military vehicles, confirming ongoing focus on ground mobility. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition also shows Putin inspecting military vehicles, reinforcing focus on ground force support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
  • Naval Strike: Presence of a missile carrier in the Black Sea with 8 Kalibr missiles indicates continued capability for naval cruise missile strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Information Warfare: RUF demonstrates a sophisticated and pervasive information warfare capability, producing and disseminating detailed propaganda (e.g., POW abuse claims, military success videos, anti-Western narratives) for internal and external consumption. TASS claim of UAF force concentration in Kherson likely aims to justify potential RUF actions or distract from other areas. TASS promotion of their "Max" messenger as a step towards "digital sovereignty" indicates a broader effort to reduce reliance on Western platforms. RUF sources blaming UAF AD for damage in Vyshhorodskyi District is a common tactic to shift responsibility. RUF sources claiming USV attack on Novorossiysk was "successfully repelled". This is a clear attempt to downplay UAF success. TASS also reports on the "inevitable" collapse of UAF defenses post-Chasiv Yar, an aspirational claim. RUF sources continue to disseminate videos of "successful" strikes against UAF targets. New RUF propaganda celebrates naval workers, while also amplifying "Azov" as a "terrorist/fascist" organization (TASS) to delegitimize UAF. New RUF reports confirm a third strike on the Kremenchuk TCC, which RUF frames as a new, effective tactic against Ukrainian mobilization, indicating an intention to use this targeting for propaganda and to sow internal discord. TASS reports on internal Russian issues like cryptocurrency scams to project an image of addressing domestic concerns, potentially distracting from military issues. RUF channels (Colonelcassad) are using highly inflammatory language like "humanitarian bombing" in relation to TCC strikes. ASTRA reports KPRF believes condemning Stalin's cult of personality was a mistake, reflecting historical revisionism for internal consumption. Medvedev's aggressive rhetoric towards NATO is a common theme. RUF actively promoting claimed territorial gains (Sobolivka, Poddubnoye). RUF MoD publishing daily progress reports as part of information campaign. Воин DV states China will not allow Russia to lose in Ukraine, aiming to reinforce confidence in Russia's position. Alex Parker Returns claims RUF are "taking Kupyansk in a bag" which is highly exaggerated propaganda. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF is actively promoting the narrative of a concealed reactor accident at the South Ukrainian NPP. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) НгП раZVедка channel praises Kremenchuk residents for allegedly "leaking" information on TCC location, directly aiming to sow internal discord and encourage collaboration. Rybar's report on Slovenia considering leaving NATO is likely part of this information campaign, attempting to depict Western disunity. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) "Старше Эдды" celebrates Mikhail Gudkov as the first "Twice Hero" of Russia posthumously, indicating strong propaganda focus on military heroes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) "Два майора" shares a message implying "rest in Turkey - helped UAF," suggesting a propaganda narrative to link civilian activities with support for Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) "Воин DV" video's caption explicitly states RUF drone operators are a "nightmare for the enemy," aiming to boost morale and project combat effectiveness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Colonelcassad shares a video of a Ukrainian woman expressing frustration about mobilization and the destruction of the country, likely amplified to sow dissent. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Rybar's "TCC under fire" photos reinforce the narrative that RUF is effectively targeting Ukrainian mobilization efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS claims RUF is encircling UAF in Kupyansk, a clear information operation to project success and demoralize UAF. CONFIDENCE: LOW. (Updated) TASS reports Putin at "All for Victory!" forum, used to project internal unity and determination. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports the Moldovan "Victory" bloc is collecting signatures for an alliance with Russia, showing RUF attempts to expand influence. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) "Воин DV" also publishes social media content with strong pro-Russian political messaging, demonstrating deep engagement in information warfare. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Басурин о главном raises questions about the South Ukrainian NPP, explicitly pushing a narrative of a "nuclear threat under a veil of silence." CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS photo shows Putin at forum with "Russia is a colossal, indestructible force in its righteousness and unity" caption. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) RUF channel МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares video of Putin at "Kulibin-club" showing tech advancements, implying national strength. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) TASS reports Putin states popular support for SVO fighters and 54B rubles raised, projecting national unity and commitment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) TASS reports Putin says Russian-made equipment sometimes surpasses NATO equivalents, for propaganda. CONFIDENCE: LOW. (New) RBC-Ukraine reports Russia openly publishes videos of intentionally targeting rescuers with drones, which is a propaganda tactic to show UAF as irrelevant or to terrorize. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• Intentions:
  • Degrade Ukrainian Military & Civilian Capacity: Continue widespread aerial bombardment to exhaust Ukrainian AD, disrupt logistics, and inflict losses on both military and civilian targets, now with explicit expansion of ballistic missile threats and direct Shahed strikes on major urban centers like Kyiv and Kharkiv, aimed at increasing casualties and civilian disruption. The attack on Zaporizhzhia civilian infrastructure (confirmed 5 Shaheds, 1 injured, 3 multi-story buildings damaged), Kyiv Oblast (3 injured), Kirovohrad (agricultural enterprise damaged), Kremenchuk (TCC/residential damage), the FPV drone strike on a Kherson gas station, and the FPV strike resulting in a child fatality in Kharkiv supports this intent. KAB launches towards Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts support the intent to degrade UAF defensive capacity in border regions. New ballistic threats to Poltava and Zaporizhzhia from the East, now lifted, reinforce the intent to apply pressure across the depth of Ukraine. Targeting of emergency services during operations is a war crime designed to further degrade emergency response capacity. The explicit targeting of TCC buildings aims to disrupt Ukrainian mobilization. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Maintain & Expand Pressure on Front Lines: Sustain offensive operations in Donbas and continue probing in northern border regions. Clear intent to open new axes (Sumy) to stretch UAF further, reinforced by persistent UAV activity there and the WarGonzo map showing "Sumy Direction." Claims of UAF redeploying units to Sumy likely intended to frame RUF incursion as a response. RUF MoD claims of capturing Sobolivka and Poddubnoye indicate intent to consolidate gains. UAF General Staff reports significant RUF assaults repelled on Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction (23 assaults). This indicates strong RUF intent to press these axes. RUF claims of encircling UAF in Myrne indicates intent to achieve localized tactical breakthroughs and entrapment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) The redeployment of over 20 trucks of personnel to Sumy further supports the intent to expand pressure on this axis. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Colonelcassad shares video of destroyed UAF personnel, identified as from the 48th Separate Engineer Brigade, in the Sumy direction, implying RUF ground force effectiveness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS claims RUF is encircling UAF in Kupyansk, indicating intent for tactical encirclement. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. (Updated) Narodnaya militsiya DNR (RUF source) video shows destruction of UAF mortar positions, indicating intent to suppress UAF fire. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
  • Counter UAF Deep Strikes: Actively hunt and destroy UAF UAV/USV control infrastructure and prevent deep penetration attacks into Russian territory. The attack on Novorossiysk indicates an intention to target high-value port infrastructure in response to UAF deep strikes. RUF claims of 120 UAVs downed reflect their intent to project a robust AD capability, though UAF reports higher number of neutralized targets. New RUF imagery of a destroyed USV in Novorossiysk is used to project success in countering UAF deep strikes. RUF claims of 39 UAF UAVs shot down over 6 regions indicate a continuous intent to counter UAF deep strikes. The introduction of temporary restrictions at Pskov and Leningrad airports indicates RUF intent to mitigate UAF drone threats to critical infrastructure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports restrictions on air traffic introduced at Kaluga airport, indicating continued intent to counter UAF deep strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
  • Shape Information Environment: Actively control and shape narratives around the conflict, both internally and internationally, including influencing foreign public opinion as evidenced by statements regarding forced evacuation in Zaporizhzhia, UK internal politics, and the narrative around the resumption of US-Russia flights. Blaming UAF AD for damage reinforces this. RUF claims of successful repulsion of USV attacks further reinforces this intent. Posthumous awards serve to bolster morale and present "heroic" narratives. RUF sources portraying UAF soldiers as begging for donations further attempts to degrade UAF image. RUF reporting on a third strike on the Kremenchuk TCC aims to portray their attacks as effective against Ukrainian mobilization efforts. New narrative regarding a concealed NPP incident aims to discredit Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF also intends to sow discord within Ukraine by praising citizens who allegedly provide information on TCC locations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) "Два майора" sharing message about "rest in Turkey - helped UAF" is a clear attempt to sow distrust and create internal division. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) "Старше Эдды" celebrating the "Twice Hero" posthumously aims to create a strong nationalist and militaristic narrative. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) "Воин DV" video's caption explicitly states RUF drone operators are a "nightmare for the enemy," aiming to boost morale and project combat effectiveness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Colonelcassad shares a video of a Ukrainian woman expressing frustration about mobilization and the destruction of the country, likely amplified to sow dissent and undermine UAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Rybar's "TCC under fire" photos reinforce the narrative that RUF is effectively targeting Ukrainian mobilization efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS claims RUF is encircling UAF in Kupyansk, a clear information operation to project success and demoralize UAF. CONFIDENCE: LOW. (Updated) TASS reports Putin at "All for Victory!" forum, used to project internal unity and determination. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports the Moldovan "Victory" bloc is collecting signatures for an alliance with Russia, showing RUF attempts to expand influence. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) "Воин DV" also publishes social media content with strong pro-Russian political messaging, demonstrating deep engagement in information warfare. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Басурин о главном raises questions about the South Ukrainian NPP, explicitly pushing a narrative of a "nuclear threat under a veil of silence." CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS photo showing Putin at forum reinforces national unity propaganda. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) TASS reports Putin claims Russian drones destroyed more than $2 billion worth of enemy equipment, aimed at bolstering internal confidence. CONFIDENCE: LOW. (New) TASS reports Putin states popular support for SVO fighters and 54B rubles raised, aimed at projecting internal unity. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) TASS reports Putin says Russian-made equipment sometimes surpasses NATO equivalents, aimed at boosting morale and confidence in domestic capabilities. CONFIDENCE: LOW. (New) RBC-Ukraine reports Russia openly publishes videos of intentionally targeting rescuers with drones, aimed at intimidating UAF and civilian response. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• Courses of Action (COA):
  • COA 1: Continued Extensive Aerial Bombardment with Ballistic Expansion and Sustained Urban Targeting (High Confidence): RUF will continue to employ strike UAVs (Shaheds from multiple axes), KABs, ballistic missiles, and FPV drones across Eastern, Southern, and Central Ukraine, with increased direct targeting of major urban centers (e.g., Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Kremenchuk) to maximize psychological impact and civilian disruption. The 3 injured in Kyiv Oblast from recent UAV attack, confirmed 5 Shahed impacts in Zaporizhzhia (1 injured, 3 multi-story buildings damaged), Kirovohrad (agricultural enterprise damaged), FPV strike on Kherson gas station, and reports of shrapnel/casualty in Mykolaiv reinforce this. KAB launches towards Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts are consistent with this COA. Ongoing missile threat in Kherson and successful UAV intercept over Dnipropetrovsk align with this COA. New ballistic threats to Poltava and Zaporizhzhia from the East, now lifted, further confirm this COA. Targeting of emergency services (Kharkiv, Kherson) and civilian vehicles (Kharkiv) indicates an intent to hamper civilian response and inflict maximum terror. The explicit targeting of TCC buildings aims to disrupt Ukrainian mobilization. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF UAV threat reported in Kharkiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) The increased casualties from the July 3rd Poltava strike also reinforce this MLCOA. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RUF FPV drone attack in Polohivskyi district confirms continued tactical drone use against ground targets. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Narodnaya militsiya DNR (RUF source) video of mortar destruction indicates continued targeting of UAF assets. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
  • COA 2: Sustained Attritional Ground Warfare in Donbas and Northern Kharkiv, with Counter-UAV Focus (High Confidence): RUF will maintain its current offensive tempo in Donetsk, with increased efforts to neutralize UAF drone and C2 capabilities directly supporting their ground operations. Pokrovsk direction will remain a primary focus. Localized advances in Kharkiv/Belgorod border areas and near Poddubnoye/Sobolivka will likely continue. High combat engagement rate (170 in 24 hrs) indicates sustainment of this COA. RUF trench videos show no indication of reduced ground combat tempo. UAF General Staff reporting of continued clashes across all major Donbas and Kharkiv fronts confirms this COA. RUF attempts to encircle UAF positions in Myrne will likely continue. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS claims RUF is encircling UAF in Kupyansk, indicating intent for tactical encirclement. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. (Updated)
  • COA 3: Sustained High-Intensity Cross-Border Operations from Kursk/Sudzha into Sumy (High Confidence): RUF will continue and likely intensify the high-intensity cross-border operations from the Kursk/Sudzha area into Sumy Oblast. The primary objective will be to fix UAF reserves and creating a new, significant point of pressure, not merely a feint. This is strongly supported by the confirmed 23 RUF assaults repelled in this direction in the last 24 hours and the reported redeployment of over 20 trucks with personnel towards Sumy. The concentration of forces near Sudzha (previous report), consistent UAV activity, and KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast are indicators that this is an ongoing and significant effort. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Adaptive UAV Targeting & Routes: New or adapted flight paths (westward movement into Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, and new Black Sea trajectories) likely exploit perceived weaknesses in UAF AD or support potential ground operations. Direct Shahed strikes on Kharkiv city, Kyiv outskirts (Vyshhorodskyi District), Zaporizhzhia, and Kremenchuk, with confirmed damage and increased casualties, represent a return to high-risk, high-reward targeting of major urban centers and civilian infrastructure. Confirmed FPV drone strike on a Kherson gas station and a civilian vehicle in Kharkiv shows expanded use of tactical drones against civilian infrastructure, including direct targeting of non-combatants, and the attack in Polohivskyi district. RUF sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, Colonelcassad, Два майора) publishing UAF appeals for donations suggests RUF may be exploiting perceived Ukrainian logistics vulnerabilities.
• Re-introduction of Ballistic Threat (Southern, Eastern Axes) and Aviation Weapons Threat: Renewed ballistic missile threat from the south (now lifted) and a recent ballistic threat for Kyiv (origin likely East, now lifted) indicates RUF's continued reliance on and re-supply of precision/area denial weapons. The lifting of the previous ballistic threat indicates a completed strike wave or successful AD. Missile danger in Kherson suggests continued use of such systems. New ballistic threats to Poltava and Zaporizhzhia from the East, now lifted, indicate an expansion of this capability and its application to new target areas. Threat of aviation weapons employment in Synelnykivskyi district signals potential for direct air attacks. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Escalation of UAF Deep Strikes into Russian Territory: UAF has demonstrated an expanding geographical reach for its deep strikes, now reaching Lipetsk, Tula, Moscow, Novorossiysk (USVs), Kaluga, Pskov, Leningrad and causing flight cancellations in Nizhny Novgorod and St. Petersburg (Pulkovo). This forces RUF to divert more AD resources internally and causes significant civilian disruption. New video confirms successful USV attacks in Novorossiysk. RUF reports of 120 UAVs downed (Bryansk, general) confirm the scale of UAF deep strike activity, though UAF reports higher number of neutralized targets. New RUF imagery of a destroyed USV in Novorossiysk confirms a RUF success in intercepting some USVs. RUF claims of 39 UAF UAVs shot down over 6 regions indicate a continuous effort to counter UAF deep strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports on the results of strikes on Borisoglebsk airfield on July 5th, with satellite imagery showing possible damage indicators, indicating continued UAF deep strike adaptation. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. (Updated) The explosion and ammonia leak at Ust-Luga port represents a new target area for UAF deep strikes, impacting critical port infrastructure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports restrictions on air traffic introduced at Kaluga airport, indicating RUF adaptation to UAF deep strikes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• Targeting Expansion: RUF's use of KABs in Zaporizhzhia and confirmed KAB launches towards Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts indicate an expansion of high-precision glide bomb targets to critical southern and northern fronts, likely to degrade UAF positions and logistics. Direct targeting of emergency services in Kharkiv and Kherson is a new, heinous adaptation. Targeting of TCC (military recruitment) building in Kremenchuk is a new specific target type, confirmed by RUF sources as a third such strike this week, indicating a deliberate and sustained effort to disrupt Ukrainian mobilization. The FPV drone attack on a civilian car in Kharkiv resulting in a child's death indicates a further, deplorable expansion of targets to include non-combatants. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The increased casualties from the July 3rd Poltava strike also indicate a continued intent to inflict casualties. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) The FPV drone attack in Polohivskyi district further demonstrates this expanded targeting. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RBC-Ukraine reports double strike by Russians on Konstantinovka. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) RBC-Ukraine reports Russia openly publishes videos of intentionally targeting rescuers with drones. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) Narodnaya militsiya DNR (RUF source) video shows destruction of UAF mortar positions, indicating specific tactical targeting. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• New Front Activity (Belgorod/Kharkiv Junction and Sumy): RUF claims of a 2km advance at the Belgorod/Kharkiv junction and "cleanup" in Poddubnoye suggest small, localized tactical setbacks for UAF. Video confirms RUF presence in Poddubnoye. RUF MoD confirms capture of Sobolivka in Kharkiv Oblast and Poddubnoye in Donetsk. The 23 RUF assaults repelled in Kursk and Sumy directions indicate that the "new front" activity is already high-intensity and not merely a "probing" operation, but a sustained pressure campaign. The reported redeployment of over 20 trucks with personnel towards Sumy further underscores this adaptation towards expanding the Sumy front. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RUF claims of encircling UAF in Kupyansk suggest an adaptation towards localized tactical encirclement. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. (Updated)
• FPV Drone Training Expansion: MoD Russia video shows focused training for FPV drone operators, indicating increased emphasis on these tactical assets for ground operations. FPV drones from "Отважные" group actively targeting UAF personnel. MoD Russia video also shows specialists of 1st Guards Engineer Brigade repairing and modernizing drones for combat operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition thermal imagery with a crosshair suggests RUF adaptation in thermal imaging and targeting capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports Putin claims Russian drones destroyed more than $2 billion worth of enemy equipment, highlighting their capabilities. CONFIDENCE: LOW (Unverifiable RUF claim). (New) Басурин о главном shows a DJI Flycart 100 drone being unboxed, indicating acquisition of new drone types. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) Narodnaya militsiya DNR (RUF source) shows drone footage of mortar destruction, confirming tactical drone use. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• Alleged Anti-Drone Countermeasures: Оперативний ЗСУ video suggests RUF may be employing anti-drone tarps to counter thermal detection and FPV drone attacks. This indicates RUF is adapting its defensive measures against UAF drone tactics. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. (Updated)
• Strategic Vehicle Acquisition/Development (RUF): Putin inspecting military vehicles, including all-terrain motorcycles for casualty evacuation, indicates an adaptation towards improving combat sustainment and personnel recovery. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Drone & KAB Supply: Continued high volume of UAV and KAB launches across multiple axes indicates sustained production or procurement capacity for these munitions. Confirmed damage from 5 Shaheds in Zaporizhzhia (1 injured) suggests successful delivery. Successful UAV intercept in Dnipropetrovsk indicates continued RUF drone activity. UAF reports neutralizing 117 RUF UAVs out of 157 targets, suggesting high RUF drone expenditure rate. RUF claims of 39 UAF UAVs downed also imply a high expenditure rate on RUF's part. MoD Russia video shows specialists of 1st Guards Engineer Brigade repairing and modernizing drones, indicating a sustainment effort for their UAV capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. TASS reports Putin claims Russian drones destroyed more than $2 billion worth of enemy equipment, suggesting confidence in their drone program's capabilities and sustainability. CONFIDENCE: LOW (Unverifiable RUF claim). (New) Басурин о главном shows a DJI Flycart 100 drone being unboxed, implying a supply of new heavy-lift drones. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• Ballistic Missile Supply: Renewed ballistic missile threats, now from distinct axes (South, now lifted, and recent threat for Kyiv likely from East, now lifted), suggest continued access to these systems and potential diversification of launch platforms. Missile danger in Kherson suggests continued access to and use of missile systems. New ballistic threats to Poltava and Zaporizhzhia from the East, now lifted, further confirm supply. UAF reports 4 S-300 missiles in addition to UAVs. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Impact of UAF Deep Strikes: UAF drone/USV attacks highlight the vulnerability of RUF border logistics and strategic infrastructure, forcing RUF to enhance internal air defense. Confirmed USV attacks in Novorossiysk reinforce this impact. RUF claims of 120 UAVs downed, while likely exaggerated, reflect the effort RUF is putting into internal AD. Flight restrictions at St. Petersburg Pulkovo airport (Оперативний ЗСУ) further demonstrate the impact. Russian Ministry of Transport's statement that airports are returning to normal operations suggests some recovery but does not negate the initial disruption. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Aviation between Moscow and St. Petersburg being halted further impacts RUF logistics and travel. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Nizhny Novgorod airport restrictions also impact civilian logistics and implicitly military capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports FPK (Federal Passenger Company) is monitoring free seats on trains between Moscow and St. Petersburg and can increase wagons if needed, suggesting a shift to rail transport due to air travel disruptions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports on the results of strikes on Borisoglebsk airfield, which could impact RUF air logistics and operations if damage is significant. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. (Updated) The explosion and ammonia leak on the Eco Wizard tanker in Ust-Luga port will have a significant negative impact on RUF port logistics and energy export capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports restrictions on air traffic introduced at Kaluga airport, indicating ongoing disruption. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• Internal Affairs Focus: The second criminal case against Timofeev (ex-head of GABTU MO utilization service) and the arrest of the head of Karabudakhkent district indicate internal issues or purges potentially affecting the efficiency of military logistics and procurement. TASS's statement regarding the challenges of resuming direct flights with the USA implicitly acknowledges the impact of Western sanctions and the conflict on Russia's civilian aviation sector, which indirectly affects military logistics and sustainment by consuming resources or creating a perception of isolated economic conditions. RUF channels (Colonelcassad, Два майора) publishing aid requests for Russian soldiers (21st Guards Motor Rifle Regiment, Zaporizhzhia stormtroopers) strongly indicates localized sustainment issues or reliance on volunteer efforts. Rybar reports "the gravy train is closing" in an analysis related to logistics or funding issues. New video of RUF soldiers receiving supplies via "DVA MAJORS" Telegram channel further highlights reliance on volunteer networks to supplement official logistics. TASS reports Putin will discuss civilian doctors in military hospitals, which shows an attempt to shore up medical logistics. Colonelcassad video of Putin inspecting casualty evacuation equipment highlights continued focus on improving medical logistics and personnel sustainment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports Putin states popular support for SVO fighters and 54B rubles raised, which could be used for sustainment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• RUF Operational C2: Appears effective in coordinating multi-domain attacks (UAVs, KABs, ballistic missiles, FPV drones, tactical aviation) and supporting ground operations across widely dispersed fronts. Their rapid response to internal UAV/USV threats demonstrates centralized control. Colonelcassad video indicates effective C2 of RUF FPV drone units. RUF MoD claim of 120 UAVs downed, even if exaggerated, points to a coordinated national AD response. The deployment of additional personnel to Sumy (20+ trucks) indicates organized logistical and force allocation C2. RUF claims of 39 UAF UAVs shot down over 6 regions indicate continued effective AD C2. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. "Воин DV" video's caption emphasizes the effectiveness of 39th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade operators in disrupting UAF logistics and rotation, highlighting perceived RUF C2 effectiveness in tactical operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition thermal imagery suggests RUF C2 has access to advanced targeting systems for ground units. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports Putin at "All for Victory!" forum, implying effective political C2 in rallying support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Colonelcassad video of Putin inspecting casualty evacuation equipment suggests high-level C2 focus on personnel sustainment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) MoD Russia video shows specialists of 1st Guards Engineer Brigade repairing and modernizing drones, indicating effective C2 for technical support of UAV operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports Putin claims Russian drones destroyed more than $2 billion worth of enemy equipment, suggesting effective C2 in drone operations. CONFIDENCE: LOW (Unverifiable RUF claim). (New) Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны shows Putin inspecting military vehicles, implying effective C2 in equipment development and deployment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition also shows Putin inspecting military vehicles, reinforcing effective C2 in equipment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) TASS reports restrictions on air traffic introduced at Kaluga airport, indicating responsive AD C2. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• UAF Operational C2: Effective in real-time AD alerts and coordinating tactical UAV engagements. Confirmed drone/USV presence over Russian territory suggests effective planning and execution of deep missions. Effective coordination of defensive efforts along the entire front, evidenced by 170 combat engagements. The rapid lifting of air alerts (previously in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia, and all clear for UAVs) and immediate issuance of new alerts for Sumy/Poltava/Chernihiv, demonstrates effective C2 and assessment of the immediate threat. Successful intercept in Dnipropetrovsk further demonstrates effective AD C2. The reported "controlled situation" in Kryvyi Rih indicates effective local civilian-military coordination and reporting. UAF Air Force detailed report on 117 neutralized UAVs out of 157 targets indicates effective assessment and reporting. The public reporting of a TCC soldier being beaten in Rivne Oblast suggests challenges in local C2 regarding mobilization, potentially impacting overall force generation efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a TCC military personnel being beaten in Rivne Oblast, indicating UAF awareness of internal challenges related to command and control of mobilization. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Оперативний ЗСУ video shows a UAF vehicle hit by an FPV drone, but the team evacuated, indicating effective tactical C2 for survival. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RBC-Ukraine reports the MFA named two main tasks for Ukraine in negotiations with Russians, indicating a diplomatic control measure and unified C2. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video highlights effective C2 of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade's FPV drones, and successful targeting based on OSINT from RUF sources. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno's reporting on Borisoglebsk airfield implies effective UAF intelligence C2. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. (Updated) DeepState's fundraising campaign for a specific unit's FPV drones shows decentralized but coordinated C2 for resource acquisition. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's report on aid to the front highlights effective civil-military coordination for sustainment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Zelenskyy signs new sanctions package, showing effective C2 in economic warfare. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) Oleg Synehubov shares video of Zelenskyy signing sanctions, confirming coordinated government action. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Air Defense (AD) Posture: UAF AD remains highly vigilant and responsive to RUF aerial threats across the country, demonstrated by rapid alert issuance and clearance, despite the multi-directional and multi-layered nature of the current threat. Reported shootdowns of Shaheds in Mykolaiv and Kharkiv. Confirmed UAV shootdown in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast demonstrates continued AD readiness. UAF Air Force reports neutralizing 117 RUF UAVs out of 157 total aerial targets (including 4 S-300 missiles) for 06.07.2025. This indicates a robust and active AD response. Mykolaiv Vanok reports "minus" for Shaheds over Mykolaiv and Kremenchuk. STERNENKO reports Azov Air Defense unit shot down 24 "Molniyas" (likely refers to UAVs). CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF is assessing the effectiveness of RUF anti-drone countermeasures. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
• Drone/USV Operations: UAF continues to demonstrate highly effective tactical drone operations and possesses a growing capability for deep strikes and reconnaissance into Russian territory. UAF sources confirm attacks on Novorossiysk. New video evidence confirms successful USV attacks in Novorossiysk. STERNENKO video shows "Bikers Team" (Flying Skull battalion) drone operations, demonstrating effective tactical UAV employment. New STERNENKO video shows "Kharakterniky" unit of "Kryla OMEGY" destroying RUF artillery and logistics with drones in Zaporizhzhia direction. UAF Підрозділ Shadow posts drone video showing successful strike on RUF enemy dugout. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) STERNENKO reports a delivery of 450 drones to the military, highlighting continued UAF drone supply and readiness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) STERNENKO provides video of drone delivery to the 65th Mechanized Brigade's 'Ronin' battalion, confirming specific unit receiving equipment and readiness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Оперативний ЗСУ video shows a UAF vehicle hit by an FPV drone, but the team evacuated, demonstrating resilience and tactical readiness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows active UAF FPV drone operations, indicating continued readiness and offensive capability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) DeepState's fundraising campaign for FPV drones for SIGNUM unit indicates continued demand and readiness for drone operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Оперативний ЗСУ reports on the Eco Wizard tanker incident, implying successful UAF naval drone operations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports on a week of aid to the Zaporizhzhia front, with imagery of various drones, indicating successful procurement and deployment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) STERNENKO shares video of Ronin's of the 65th Separate Motorized Brigade conducting drone strikes, confirming readiness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) Zelenskyy signs new sanctions package targeting Russian financial schemes, including crypto, as a form of economic warfare, demonstrating readiness to employ economic tools. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• Ground Force Posture: UAF maintains a defensive posture in Donbas, actively repelling RUF assaults, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction. Forces are also deployed to deter and defend against potential incursions in northern border regions (Kharkiv, Sumy). The ongoing pressure on multiple fronts necessitates a flexible and ready reserve. General Staff reports high combat tempo (170 engagements) and significant RUF losses (1180 personnel), indicating UAF ground forces are inflicting heavy attrition while maintaining defensive lines. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's combat report from Pokrovske direction confirms high intensity defense and significant RUF losses. UAF General Staff reports continued engagements across all major fronts, including repelling 23 RUF assaults in the Kursk and Sumy directions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Naval Forces Posture: UAF Naval Forces celebrating their day indicates continued operational readiness and presence, particularly for coastal and riverine defense. The raising of the Naval Forces flag in Kyiv (KMVA photo) is a symbolic display of presence and morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
• Internal Force Generation: RBC-Ukraine reports on a unit of "Rubizh" Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine collecting funds for restoration of destroyed property and equipment. Dnevnik Desantnika (RUF source, but content from UAF source) shows UAF soldiers appealing for donations for a vehicle. This indicates some units are relying on crowd-sourcing for certain needs. ЦПД (Center for Countering Disinformation) issuing warnings against fake news about "women's mobilization" suggests proactive efforts to manage morale and prevent panic. Zelenskyy's video on prisoner exchanges emphasizes commitment to personnel return, boosting morale. The report of a TCC military personnel being beaten in Rivne Oblast highlights potential internal challenges and resistance to mobilization efforts, potentially impacting the readiness of newly mobilized forces. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) UAF General Staff shares photos of a smiling soldier, likely for morale boosting purposes, suggesting efforts to maintain positive force posture. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fact), LOW (Relevance). (Updated) Дневник Десантника (RUF source) video shows UAF soldiers appealing for donations for a vehicle, indicating continued reliance on public support for some equipment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports on a week of aid to the Zaporizhzhia front, indicating successful internal force generation through volunteer support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Военкор Котенок shares video of UAF soldiers appealing for sniper rifles, indicating continued reliance on external support for specific equipment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• Economic Warfare (UAF): Zelenskyy signs new sanctions package targeting Russian financial schemes, including cryptocurrency, demonstrating UAF's readiness to engage in economic warfare to degrade RUF capabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • Effective Drone Engagements: UAF drone units continue to inflict losses on RUF infantry and equipment. STERNENKO video of Azov drone unit shows successful interceptions. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade reports elimination of 113 enemy drones and other equipment in Pokrovske direction. New STERNENKO video shows successful drone strikes against RUF artillery and logistics in Zaporizhzhia direction. UAF Підрозділ Shadow posts drone video showing successful strike on RUF enemy dugout. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) STERNENKO reports a delivery of 450 drones to the military, demonstrating continued procurement success. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) STERNENKO provides video of drone delivery to the 65th Mechanized Brigade's 'Ronin' battalion, indicating successful equipping of specific units. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows FPV drones of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade successfully targeting RUF personnel and mortar positions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports on successful aid to the Zaporizhzhia front, including drone deliveries. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) STERNENKO shares video of Ronin's of the 65th Separate Motorized Brigade conducting drone strikes in Zaporizhzhia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
  • Expanded Deep Strike Persistence: Successful UAF drone/USV strikes demonstrate a significant and expanding deep strike capability, forcing RUF to divert substantial resources to internal defense and creating strategic disruption. New video evidence confirms successful USV attacks in Novorossiysk. RUF reports confirm significant UAF UAV activity against Russian territory (e.g., Kaluga, Bryansk, general). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports on the results of strikes on Borisoglebsk airfield, suggesting successful deep strike against RUF air assets. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) The explosion and ammonia leak on the Eco Wizard tanker in Ust-Luga port is a significant success for UAF deep strike operations, impacting critical energy infrastructure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Zelenskyy signs new sanctions package targeting Russian financial schemes, including crypto, demonstrating successful economic warfare. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
  • AD Responsiveness: Prompt issuance and lifting of air alerts across multiple oblasts, despite sustained aerial pressure, including rapid response to Shaheds targeting Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kremenchuk, and immediate warnings for new ballistic threats (now lifted). Reported shootdowns of Shaheds in Mykolaiv and Kharkiv further confirm AD effectiveness. Confirmed UAV shootdown in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast demonstrates continued AD effectiveness. UAF Air Force reporting 117 RUF UAVs neutralized out of 157 total aerial targets (including 4 S-300 missiles) confirms significant AD success. Mykolaiv Vanok reports "minus" for Shaheds over Mykolaiv and Kremenchuk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • High Combat Tempo & Attrition: UAF maintaining operational tempo across 170 combat engagements in 24 hours, inflicting heavy estimated RUF personnel losses (1180). 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade reports repelling 42 attacks and 147 RUF personnel eliminated in Pokrovske direction. UAF General Staff reports continued high intensity of clashes across numerous fronts, including repelling 23 RUF assaults in the Kursk and Sumy directions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Localized Defensive Stability: The situation in Kryvyi Rih being reported as controlled. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
  • Successful POW Capture: Interrogation video of captured RUF soldier from Kaluga Oblast indicates successful UAF tactical actions leading to prisoners. BТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows drone-assisted capture of a Russian soldier. Zelenskyy's video highlights multiple successful prisoner exchanges since June. Koordynatsijnyy Shtab confirms 8 stages of prisoner exchanges since June. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
  • Presidential Call with Trump: Zelenskyy's statement about the "best conversation" with Trump may signal positive diplomatic engagement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RBC-Ukraine reports Kellogg praising Zelenskyy after the conversation with Trump, reinforcing positive diplomatic outcome. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
  • Naval Forces Day: Public display and celebration of Ukrainian Naval Forces boosts national morale and projects military capability. The raising of the Naval Forces flag in Kyiv is a visual success. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
  • Diplomatic Stance: Ukrainian MFA speaker stating Ukraine will not go for limitations, implying strong negotiating position on key issues. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RBC-Ukraine reports the MFA named two main tasks for Ukraine in negotiations with Russians, indicating a clear, unified diplomatic stance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
  • Educational Project: Zaporizhzhia ODA posts on "ELITA UFUTURE" educational project suggests continued focus on civilian development and future resilience. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fact). LOW (Relevance). (Updated)
  • Team Evacuation: Оперативний ЗСУ video shows a UAF vehicle hit by an FPV drone, but the team evacuated successfully, demonstrating effective training and survivability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
  • OSINT-based Targeting: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports UAF successfully targeted RUF positions near Toretsk using HIMARS, based on OSINT from a Russian Z-blogger's video. This highlights effective intelligence exploitation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
• Setbacks:
  • Continued Aerial Pressure & Casualties: RUF's persistent and widespread use of KABs (confirmed KABs towards Kharkiv and Sumy), UAVs (confirmed 5 Shaheds in Zaporizhzhia, 1 injured, 3 multi-story buildings damaged), FPV drones (Kherson gas station, Kharkiv civilian vehicle resulting in child fatality, Polohivskyi district), and now ballistic missiles (recent threat for Kyiv, now lifted; new threats to Poltava and Zaporizhzhia from East, now lifted), and new strikes in Kremenchuk (TCC/residential damage) continues to pose a significant challenge to UAF AD and ground forces, necessitating constant resource expenditure and causing damage to infrastructure and casualties. The new westward movement of Shaheds from Sumy towards Poltava and Chernihiv, new Shaheds in the Black Sea, and direct strikes on Kharkiv (with increased injuries), Kyiv (3 injured in Vyshhorodskyi District), Mykolaiv (shrapnel damage/casualty), and Kirovohrad (agricultural enterprise damaged), highlight the enduring nature of this threat and its increasing direct impact on urban centers and agricultural infrastructure. Ongoing missile danger in Kherson indicates continued aerial threat exposure. New threat of aviation weapons use in Synelnykivskyi district. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The increased casualties from the July 3rd Poltava strike also indicate a continued intent to inflict casualties. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) ASTRA reports a woman died in Poltava from injuries sustained in the July 3rd strike, confirming a fatality. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia killed a child in Kharkiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RBC-Ukraine reports double strike by Russians on Konstantinovka, implying continued aerial pressure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
  • Localized RUF Advances: RUF claims of a 2km advance at the Belgorod/Kharkiv junction and "cleanup" in Poddubnoye suggest small, localized tactical setbacks for UAF. Video confirms RUF presence in Poddubnoye. RUF MoD claims capture of Sobolivka and Poddubnoye. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RUF claims of encircling UAF in Myrne, west of Donetsk, if true, represent a localized tactical setback. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. (Updated) TASS claims RUF is encircling UAF in Kupyansk. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. (Updated)
  • Artillery Loss: Reported destruction of a Ukrainian M777 howitzer in Kherson Oblast by RUF forces. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Narodnaya militsiya DNR (RUF source) video shows destruction of UAF mortar positions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
  • Internal Resource Strain: Some UAF units relying on public fundraising for basic equipment and vehicle replacement suggests resource constraints. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RUF source) acknowledges continued UAF efforts to collect funds for "Mavics" (drones), implying ongoing UAF drone supply challenges. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) "Два майора" shares a message implying "rest in Turkey - helped UAF," aiming to create internal division in Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Дневник Десантника (RUF source) video shows UAF soldiers appealing for donations for a vehicle, confirming continued reliance on public support for some equipment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) DeepState confirms an ongoing fundraising campaign for SIGNUM unit's FPV drones, highlighting continued reliance on public support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Военкор Котенок shares video of UAF soldiers appealing for sniper rifles, confirming resource constraints. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
  • Targeting of Rescuers: RUF attacks on emergency services in Kharkiv and Kherson is a critical setback, hindering civilian response capabilities and demonstrating flagrant disregard for international humanitarian law. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RBC-Ukraine reports Russia openly publishes videos of intentionally targeting rescuers with drones, confirming this setback. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
  • Anti-Drone Countermeasure Effectiveness: Оперативний ЗСУ video indicating an anti-drone tarp was ineffective against an FPV drone highlights a potential vulnerability in new counter-drone tactics. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. (Updated)
  • Civilian Resistance to Mobilization: The reported beating of a TCC military personnel in Rivne Oblast highlights potential challenges in public acceptance of mobilization efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Colonelcassad shares a video of a Ukrainian woman expressing frustration about mobilization and the destruction of the country, indicating growing discontent. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
  • Mine Incident: Two civilians injured from mine detonation in a forest belt in Kharkiv Oblast indicates continued threat from unexploded ordnance and possible booby traps. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Air Defense Munitions: Continuous RUF aerial attacks necessitate a steady and increasing supply of AD munitions, particularly for shorter-range systems against UAVs and for intercepting KABs and ballistic missiles. The expansion of KAB usage, persistent multi-directional Shahed threat, and renewed/new ballistic threats significantly increase this demand. Confirmed UAV shootdown in Dnipropetrovsk further underscores ongoing AD munitions expenditure. UAF Air Force reporting 117 RUF UAVs neutralized out of 157 aerial targets implies high AD munitions consumption. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• ISR Assets: Critical need for additional ISR assets to accurately assess RUF force generation and intent on new axes (Sumy, especially the scale of the 20+ truck redeployment), and to confirm ballistic missile launch sites and trajectories (Eastern axis, and now specifically for Kyiv, though threat lifted, and Kherson, and new threats to Poltava and Zaporizhzhia), and to identify specific aviation assets operating in Dnipropetrovsk. This remains the #1 Intelligence Priority. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Also, ISR is needed to confirm the extent of damage at Borisoglebsk airfield and the Ust-Luga port incident. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. (Updated)
• General Equipment and Vehicles: Public fundraising efforts by some UAF units highlight ongoing needs for equipment replacement and vehicle acquisition. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. STERNENKO reports a delivery of 450 drones to the military, indicating some success in meeting equipment needs through public support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Дневник Десантника (RUF source) video shows UAF soldiers appealing for donations for a vehicle, confirming continued reliance on public support for some equipment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) DeepState's fundraising campaign for SIGNUM unit's FPV drones highlights continued demand for drone procurement. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports on a week of aid to the Zaporizhzhia front, highlighting continued need for supplies. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Военкор Котенок shares video of UAF soldiers appealing for sniper rifles, indicating equipment shortfalls. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• Emergency Response Equipment: Attacks on rescue services necessitate a review of existing stocks and rapid resupply of specialized vehicles (e.g., fire trucks) and personal protective equipment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Video from Kharkiv shows emergency services working in the aftermath of night strikes, indicating ongoing demand for equipment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RBC-Ukraine shares photos from emergency services showing the aftermath of the Kremenchuk strike, confirming ongoing demand for emergency response equipment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
• Anti-Drone Countermeasures: The apparent ineffectiveness of some anti-drone countermeasures suggests a need for further research, development, and procurement of more robust solutions. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. (Updated)
• De-mining Equipment: The incident in Kharkiv Oblast where two civilians were injured by a mine highlights an ongoing requirement for de-mining efforts and specialized equipment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RUF Narratives: Continue to focus on "Ukrainian Atrocities" (POW mistreatment, though UAF video of POW capture shows humane treatment), "Western Belligerence," "Russian Military Success," "Internal Strength/Control," and "Western Weakness/Disunity." New narratives include amplifying UK Labour Party leadership challenges (Starmer losing support) to sow discord amongst Western allies. TASS (RUF source) reports Ukrainian authorities in Zaporizhzhia may announce forced evacuation amid RUF "successes." This is a clear information operation designed to generate panic and psychological pressure, likely to pre-emptively explain civilian movement in the event of further RUF advances or aerial attacks. RUF sources also amplifying destruction of UAF M777 in Kherson. TASS claims UAF deployed seven brigades to Kherson, likely intended to inflate perceived UAF threat or justify RUF actions. TASS is promoting the "Max" messenger as a step towards "digital sovereignty" and a potential competitor to WeChat, implying Russian technological self-sufficiency. RUF sources (Dva Mayora) explicitly blame UAF AD for damage in Vyshhorodskyi District, a common disinformation tactic to shift blame. RUF MoD claims 120 UAVs downed, likely exaggerated for morale and to project strength. RUF sources now claiming USV attack on Novorossiysk was "successfully repelled". This is a clear attempt to control the narrative and minimize the impact of UAF deep strikes. TASS reports on the "inevitable collapse" of UAF defenses beyond Chasiv Yar. Elon Musk creating an "American Party" is being amplified by RUF sources (Voenkor Russkoy Vesny) to sow discord and imply US internal weakness. Posthumous awards like Gudkov's are used to create heroic narratives and boost morale. Putin's congratulation to naval and river fleet workers highlights the importance of naval assets. RUF channels publishing requests for humanitarian aid for their soldiers indicates a hybrid approach, using public appeals while maintaining narratives of military strength. RUF sources continue to amplify Slovak PM Fico's anti-war/anti-sanction rhetoric to suggest European disunity. TASS continues to label "Azov" as a terrorist/fascist organization. RUF sources (Дневник Десантника) claim UAF has redeployed new units to the Sumy direction, likely to justify future RUF actions there. New RUF reports (Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника, WarGonzo) confirm a third strike on the Kremenchuk TCC, which RUF frames as a new, effective tactic against Ukrainian mobilization, indicating an intent to use this targeting for propaganda and to sow internal discord. RUF sources (ТАСС, Военкор Котенок) are reporting that the SBU concealed a technical incident at the South Ukrainian NPP that could have caused a nuclear disaster due to operational violations. This is a significant new narrative aimed at discrediting Ukraine's safety protocols and potentially justifying future attacks on energy infrastructure. TASS also reports on mundane internal Russian issues (e.g., pension, crypto scams, Communist Party name change, local arrests in Dagestan), likely to project normalcy amidst conflict. Colonelcassad uses "humanitarian bombing" to describe TCC strikes, a propagandistic framing. ASTRA reports KPRF believes condemning Stalin's cult of personality was a mistake, reflecting historical revisionism for internal consumption. Medvedev's aggressive rhetoric towards NATO is a common theme. Rybar indicates they are diversifying content to Africa. New RUF MoD progress reports contribute to the narrative of successful special military operations. Воин DV's claim that China will not allow Russia to lose in Ukraine is a direct attempt to boost morale and project strength. Alex Parker Returns claims RUF are "taking Kupyansk in a bag" which is highly exaggerated propaganda. RUF claims of encircling UAF forces in Myrne serve to project success and demoralize UAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) НгП раZVедка channel praises Kremenchuk residents for allegedly "leaking" information on TCC location, directly aiming to sow internal discord and encourage collaboration. Rybar's claim that Slovenia is considering leaving NATO is a clear attempt to highlight Western disunity. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) "Старше Эдды" celebrates Mikhail Gudkov as the first "Twice Hero" of Russia posthumously, indicating strong propaganda focus on military heroes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) "Два майора" shares a message implying "rest in Turkey - helped UAF," suggesting a propaganda narrative to link civilian activities with support for Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) "Воин DV" video's caption explicitly states RUF drone operators are a "nightmare for the enemy," aiming to boost morale and project combat effectiveness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Colonelcassad shares a video of a Ukrainian woman expressing frustration about mobilization and the destruction of the country, likely amplified to sow dissent and undermine UAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Rybar's "TCC under fire" photos reinforce the narrative that RUF is effectively targeting Ukrainian mobilization efforts. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS claims RUF is encircling UAF in Kupyansk, a clear information operation to project success and demoralize UAF. CONFIDENCE: LOW. (Updated) TASS reports Putin at "All for Victory!" forum, used to project internal unity and determination. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports the Moldovan "Victory" bloc is collecting signatures for an alliance with Russia, showing RUF attempts to expand influence. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) "Воин DV" also publishes social media content with strong pro-Russian political messaging, demonstrating deep engagement in information warfare. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Басурин о главном raises questions about the South Ukrainian NPP, explicitly pushing a narrative of a "nuclear threat under a veil of silence." CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS photo shows Putin at forum with "Russia is a colossal, indestructible force in its righteousness and unity" caption, indicating unity propaganda. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) TASS reports Putin states popular support for SVO fighters and 54B rubles raised, projecting national unity. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) TASS reports Putin claims Russian drones destroyed more than $2 billion worth of enemy equipment, aimed at bolstering internal confidence. CONFIDENCE: LOW. (New) TASS reports Putin says Russian-made equipment sometimes surpasses NATO equivalents, for propaganda. CONFIDENCE: LOW. (New) RBC-Ukraine reports Russia openly publishes videos of intentionally targeting rescuers with drones, aimed at intimidation. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) Народная милиция ДНР (RUF source) reports on destruction of UAF mortars, reinforcing RUF success narrative. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• UAF Narratives: Continue to focus on "Ukrainian Resilience & Skill," "Calling out Russian Aggression," and highlighting "Russian Internal Weakness." UAF video confirming attacks on Novorossiysk aims to demonstrate UAF's ability to respond to Russian aggression. UAF General Staff releasing daily operational updates and battle statistics. UAF General Staff and Operational ZSU outlets publishing daily RUF loss figures (1180 personnel), reinforcing attrition narrative and boosting morale. Local Ukrainian authorities are providing direct, localized updates to maintain public calm and counter panic. UAF Air Force provides detailed, verifiable statistics on drone intercepts (117 neutralized UAVs). UAF videos of captured RUF soldiers being treated humanely directly counter RUF claims of POW abuse. UAF celebrates Naval Forces Day, promoting national pride and military capability. Announcement of martial law extension reinforces resolve. Calls for donations for UAF units are direct appeals for support, leveraging public solidarity. Zaporizhzhia ODA posts on "Minute of Silence" to reinforce national unity and remembrance. Condemnation of attacks on rescuers and targeting of civilian vehicle (resulting in child fatality) highlights RUF war crimes. BТУСОВ ПЛЮС highlights Russian Z-patriot's negative outlook on Russia's future, aiming to undermine internal confidence. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russia may use the ROC for espionage at a Swedish airfield. This aims to highlight Russian hybrid threats. ЦПД (Center for Countering Disinformation) warns against fake news about "women's mobilization," demonstrating UAF proactive counter-disinformation efforts. RBC-Ukraine is explicitly stating the goal of TCC strikes is to disrupt mobilization. Zelenskyy's video on prisoner exchanges emphasizes commitment to personnel return and highlights a key success. UAF MFA's statement on non-acceptance of limitations reinforces national sovereignty and resolve. Coordinated reposting of Zelenskyy's video by regional ODAs demonstrates centralized information strategy. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. UAF is publicly acknowledging and assessing RUF anti-drone countermeasures. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) The report of a TCC military personnel being beaten in Rivne Oblast, despite being an internal challenge, is publicly reported by UAF-aligned sources, indicating transparency. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Zaporizhzhia ODA promotes educational projects, highlighting continued focus on future development. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RBC-Ukraine reports Kellogg praising Zelenskyy after the conversation with Trump, reinforcing positive diplomatic outcome. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) STERNENKO reports a delivery of 450 drones to the military, boosting morale and demonstrating continued support. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) UAF General Staff shares photos of a smiling soldier, likely for morale boosting purposes. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fact), LOW (Relevance). (Updated) RBC-Ukraine reports the MFA named two main tasks for Ukraine in negotiations with Russians, indicating a clear, unified diplomatic stance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video highlights successful UAF FPV drone operations, boosting morale and projecting capability, and also highlighting successful OSINT-based targeting. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno's reporting on Borisoglebsk airfield aims to highlight UAF deep strike effectiveness. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) DeepState's fundraising campaign for FPV drones for SIGNUM unit is a direct call for public support, highlighting resilience. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Оперативний ЗСУ reports on the Eco Wizard tanker incident, highlighting a successful strike against Russian infrastructure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's report on aid to the front showcases organized volunteer support and resilience. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Zelenskyy signs new sanctions package, emphasizing economic warfare as a UAF tool. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) Oleg Synehubov shares video of Zelenskyy signing sanctions, reinforcing government action. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• Neutral/Other Narratives: ASTRA reports a child died in Kharkiv Oblast due to an attack, which is a factual report of casualties. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) ASTRA reports a bus accident involving Ukrainian children in Hungary, which is a factual report without explicit propaganda. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RBC-Ukraine reports 21 people were injured in the bus accident in Hungary, with four Ukrainians seriously injured. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Civilian Morale: Persistent aerial threats, particularly the recent ballistic threat for Kyiv (now lifted), and confirmed impacts in Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorodskyi District, 3 injured), Kharkiv (2 injured, plus 1 child killed), Kirovohrad (Znamyanka, agricultural enterprise damaged), Zaporizhzhia (5 Shaheds, 1 injured, 3 multi-story buildings damaged), Mykolaiv (2 injured, damage), and Kremenchuk (TCC/residential damage) will maintain high civilian anxiety and stress. RUF propaganda around forced mobilization, and new reports of potential forced evacuations in Zaporizhzhia, even if exaggerated or false, could impact morale. The rapid lifting of air raid alerts in some areas will provide some immediate relief, but the continuous nature of the threat remains a burden. The missile danger in Kherson, the FPV strike on a gas station, and new ballistic threats to Poltava and Zaporizhzhia (now lifted), contribute to sustained anxiety. Local reports of "controlled situation" in areas like Kryvyi Rih will help reassure the population. UAF successes in deep strikes and AD intercepts (117 neutralized UAVs) will provide some morale boost. Daily minute of silence reinforces national unity and remembrance. Appeals for donations reflect ongoing challenges but also strong public support. Attacks on rescuers and the FPV strike resulting in a child's death are likely to provoke outrage and strengthen resolve against RUF. Public celebration of Naval Forces Day provides a morale uplift. RUF reporting on a hidden NPP incident will likely cause public concern if it gains traction, forcing UAF to issue counter-messaging. The bus accident involving Ukrainian children in Hungary, while not combat-related, could add to overall public distress. Zelenskyy's video on prisoner exchanges is a significant morale boost for the population and military. The report of a TCC military personnel being beaten in Rivne Oblast suggests internal friction regarding mobilization, which could impact morale and willingness to serve. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) The increased casualties from the July 3rd Poltava strike also negatively impact morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) ASTRA reports a woman died in Poltava from injuries sustained in the July 3rd strike, which will further negatively impact morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russia killed a child in Kharkiv Oblast, which will severely impact public sentiment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Video from Kharkiv shows emergency services working in the aftermath of night strikes, visually confirming the impact on civilian life. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RBC-Ukraine shares photos from emergency services showing the aftermath of the Kremenchuk strike, visually confirming damage and impact on civilians. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a TCC military personnel being beaten in Rivne Oblast, which could indicate growing public resistance to mobilization. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Colonelcassad shares a video of a Ukrainian woman expressing frustration about mobilization and the destruction of the country, indicating growing discontent. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RBC-Ukraine reports on the psychological impact of repeated TCC attacks, confirming civilian anxiety. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) The mine incident in Kharkiv Oblast will also contribute to civilian fear and anxiety. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RBC-Ukraine reports double strike by Russians on Konstantinovka, further increasing civilian anxiety. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) RBC-Ukraine reports Russia openly publishes videos of intentionally targeting rescuers with drones, which is likely to provoke outrage. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• Russian Civilian Morale: Renewed air restrictions and direct attacks on Novorossiysk (USVs) and Kaluga, and now Pulkovo, Pskov, Leningrad, and Moscow-St. Petersburg aviation, will continue to highlight the war's impact on Russian territory, likely increasing public discontent or fear. The An-2 hard landing with 10 injured in Chita may subtly contribute to general unease regarding safety and systemic issues. TASS's statement regarding the long-term prospects for resuming direct flights with the USA indirectly signals the continued isolation and negative economic impacts of the conflict on the average Russian citizen, potentially affecting morale and public sentiment towards the war. The video of Egor Savinov's service, emphasizing his technical role and patriotism, indicates RUF efforts to maintain internal morale and justification for the conflict. RUF claims of "successful repulsion" of USV attacks are aimed at bolstering public confidence. Posthumous awards like Gudkov's are used to distract from military failures and highlight "sacrifice." Putin's congratulation to naval workers is aimed at boosting morale for specific professional groups. RUF internal calls for aid (Colonelcassad, Два майора) may signal to the public that official support is insufficient. Reports on pension rates and cryptocurrency scams (TASS, Новости Москвы) indicate an attempt to focus on domestic stability, though the underlying issues may still cause discontent. Reports of incidents like the alleged sexual assault in Krasnoyarsk and the 'homosexual hunter' in Novosibirsk, even if not military, contribute to the general societal climate and highlight rising internal tensions/extremism. The arrest of a teenager for an alleged terror plot in Dagestan and the arrest of a local district head on fraud charges highlights internal security concerns and corruption, potentially affecting public confidence in governance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports FPK (Federal Passenger Company) is monitoring free seats on trains between Moscow and St. Petersburg and can increase wagons if needed, which may alleviate some public frustration with air travel disruptions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) "Два майора" sharing message about "rest in Turkey - helped UAF," aiming to create internal division in Ukraine. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) "Старше Эдды" celebrating the "Twice Hero" posthumously aims to boost nationalist and military morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports Putin at "All for Victory!" forum, aiming to boost internal morale and confidence in leadership. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS reports the Moldovan "Victory" bloc is collecting signatures for an alliance with Russia, potentially boosting morale among those who favor Russian alignment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) Murmansk Oblast reports two deaths during a trail run, indicating general societal issues that might impact public morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) The explosion and ammonia leak at Ust-Luga port, if widely reported internally, could negatively impact public confidence in industrial safety and governance. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS photo shows Putin at forum with "Russia is a colossal, indestructible force in its righteousness and unity" caption, indicating a push for morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) TASS reports Putin states popular support for SVO fighters and 54B rubles raised, indicating efforts to boost morale. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) TASS reports Putin claims Russian drones destroyed more than $2 billion worth of enemy equipment, aimed at boosting confidence. CONFIDENCE: LOW. (New) TASS reports Putin says Russian-made equipment sometimes surpasses NATO equivalents, aimed at boosting morale. CONFIDENCE: LOW. (New)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• UK Internal Politics: RUF sources are amplifying reports from The Economist that Labour leader Keir Starmer is losing internal party support. This indicates RUF's intent to exploit internal political divisions within key Western allies to project an image of Western instability. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• US-Russia Relations: Maria Zakharova's statement on ongoing contact despite no new round of negotiations, and addressing "mutual irritants," suggests a continued, albeit limited, diplomatic channel. TASS reporting on the head of ATOR's comments about the prolonged resumption of direct flights with the USA implicitly reinforces the diplomatic isolation of Russia. Zelenskyy's positive assessment of his call with Trump is a significant diplomatic development, potentially indicating future support or a shift in US posture. Lavrov's statement about Putin's willingness for dialogue despite "conjunctural instincts" is aimed at portraying Russia as reasonable and open to negotiations. Peskov reports varied but substantive tones in a Putin-Macron conversation. Putin considering past leaks of Macron conversations highlights ongoing mistrust. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RBC-Ukraine reports Kellogg praising Zelenskyy after the conversation with Trump, reinforcing positive diplomatic outcome. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
• BRICS Cooperation: BRICS countries discussing digital financial assets and currencies for cross-border settlements indicates ongoing efforts to strengthen economic ties and potentially reduce reliance on Western financial systems. Lavrov's arrival in Rio for the BRICS summit further highlights this. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Ukraine's NATO Membership: The statement by Ukrainian MFA speaker Georgiy Tikhy that the discussion of Ukraine's NATO membership has become "very toxic" for Kyiv, suggests ongoing internal and external pressures related to NATO integration. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's statement about China possibly encouraging Russia to attack NATO to distract from Taiwan is a significant development, indicating NATO's assessment of future threats and China's role. Ukrainian MFA statement that Ukraine will not go for limitations directly addresses a key Russian demand and underscores commitment to sovereignty. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RBC-Ukraine reports the MFA named two main tasks for Ukraine in negotiations with Russians, which likely includes a focus on sovereignty and territorial integrity, key to NATO aspirations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
• Netherlands-Ukraine Relations (Refugees): Increased financial contribution for working Ukrainian refugees in the Netherlands could strain bilateral relations and impact refugee return policies. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Slovak Position: Slovak PM Fico's anti-war/anti-sanctions rhetoric amplified by RUF sources suggests a continued attempt by RUF to sow disunity within the EU and NATO. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Ukraine Recovery Fund: Kotsnews (RUF source) reports on the "Ukraine Recovery Fund and a break in supplies", indicating RUF is tracking and attempting to exploit Western support vulnerabilities. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Azerbaijan-Russia Relations: TASS reports the Human Rights Council Commission suggested Azerbaijan reduce tensions with Russia. This points to ongoing diplomatic efforts to manage relations in the region. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. Alex Parker Returns shares a political cartoon implying Kazakh support for Azerbaijan against Russia, indicating potential for shift in regional alignment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• Slovenia-NATO Relations: Rybar reports Slovenia is considering leaving NATO. This requires further verification but indicates a potential diplomatic vulnerability for NATO if true. CONFIDENCE: LOW. (Updated)
• Russia-Taliban Relations: ASTRA reports on the first Russian-Taliban film, indicating Russia's efforts to deepen ties with the Taliban regime, potentially for geopolitical influence in Central Asia. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
• Moldovan Politics: TASS reports the Moldovan "Victory" bloc will apply to participate in parliamentary elections next week. No military relevance to Ukraine, but indicates domestic political developments in a neighboring country. CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Fact), LOW (Relevance). (Updated) TASS reports the "Victory" bloc is starting to collect signatures for an alliance with Russia, indicating potential for shift in Moldovan alignment. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• MLCOA 1: Continuation of Extensive Aerial Campaigns with Ballistic Missile Expansion and Sustained Urban Targeting (High Confidence): RUF will persist with daily, high-volume employment of strike UAVs (from northern and southern axes), KABs, ballistic missiles, and FPV drones against UAF positions, critical infrastructure, and population centers. Direct targeting of Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Kremenchuk with Shaheds and ballistic missiles is highly likely to continue, with intent to inflict casualties and damage civilian infrastructure, and critically, to target emergency services and civilians. The 3 injured in Kyiv Oblast from recent UAV attack, confirmed 5 Shahed impacts in Zaporizhzhia (1 injured, 3 multi-story buildings damaged), Kirovohrad (agricultural enterprise damaged), and the recent ballistic threat for Kyiv (now lifted) reinforce this. Ongoing missile threat in Kherson and successful UAV intercept over Dnipropetrovsk align with this ongoing COA. New ballistic threats to Poltava and Zaporizhzhia from the East, now lifted, further confirm this COA. The FPV strike resulting in a child fatality in Kharkiv indicates a disregard for civilian life. The confirmed third strike on the Kremenchuk TCC highlights the new and persistent targeting pattern. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. RUF UAV threat reported in Kharkiv Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) The increased casualties from the July 3rd Poltava strike also reinforce this MLCOA. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RUF FPV drone attack in Polohivskyi district confirms continued tactical drone use against ground targets. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) RBC-Ukraine reports double strike by Russians on Konstantinovka, reinforcing continued aerial pressure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New) Народная милиция ДНР (RUF source) video of mortar destruction indicates continued targeting of UAF assets. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (New)
• MLCOA 2: Sustained Attritional Ground Warfare in Donbas and Northern Kharkiv with Localized Probing (High Confidence): RUF will maintain the current tempo of localized ground assaults in Donetsk, with Pokrovsk remaining the most active direction. These operations will be increasingly supported by targeted counter-UAV and EW efforts. RUF will continue localized probing or limited advances in border areas such as the Belgorod/Kharkiv junction, as evidenced by claimed 2km advance and confirmed capture of Poddubnoye/Sobolivka. High combat engagement rate (170) and significant RUF losses (1180) indicate RUF commitment to this attritional approach. RUF trench videos show no indication of reduced ground combat tempo. UAF General Staff reporting of continued clashes across all major Donbas and Kharkiv fronts confirms this COA. RUF attempts to encircle UAF positions in Myrne will likely continue. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated) TASS claims RUF is encircling UAF in Kupyansk, indicating intent for tactical encirclement. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. (Updated)
• MLCOA 3: Sustained High-Intensity Cross-Border Operations from Kursk/Sudzha into Sumy (High Confidence): RUF will continue and likely intensify the high-intensity cross-border operations from the Kursk/Sudzha area into Sumy Oblast. The primary objective will be to fix UAF reserves and creating a new, significant point of pressure, not merely a feint. This is strongly supported by the confirmed 23 RUF assaults repelled in this direction in the last 24 hours and the reported redeployment of over 20 trucks with personnel towards Sumy. The concentration of forces near Sudzha (previous report), consistent UAV activity, and KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast are indicators that this is an ongoing and significant effort. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• MDCOA 1: Expanded Ground Offensive into Sumy Oblast with Deep Penetration (Medium Confidence): RUF could commit a larger and more capable force from the Sudzha area than currently assessed, aiming for a deeper penetration into Sumy Oblast to seize key GLOCs or threaten regional centers beyond a simple buffer zone. This would create a major new operational front and severely strain UAF reserves. The high number of assaults repelled (23) indicates existing intent for more than just fixing, and a more aggressive intent could emerge if UAF defenses show signs of weakening. The reported deployment of over 20 trucks with personnel towards Sumy indicates a build-up for potentially larger operations. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. (Updated)
• MDCOA 2: Massed Long-Range Precision Strike Against Kyiv or Western Ukraine (Medium Confidence): RUF conducts a large-scale, multi-wave missile and UAV attack, similar to previous large-scale attacks, aimed at a high-value military or national-level C2 target in Kyiv or a logistics hub/airfield in Western Ukraine, attempting to overwhelm UAF defenses and achieve significant operational disruption. The expansion of UAF deep strikes into Russian territory, coupled with new ballistic threats (now lifted) and current Shahed activity near Kyiv, may provoke such a response. The presence of a Kalibr-capable missile carrier in the Black Sea supports this MDCOA. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
• MDCOA 3: Use of Chemical/Biological Agents (LOW Confidence): Although low probability, RUF's escalating rhetoric and disregard for international norms could lead to the deployment of prohibited chemical or biological agents in a tactical engagement, particularly against fortified positions or in areas where rapid gains are desired, which would fundamentally alter the conflict. CONFIDENCE: LOW.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Sumy Incursion: MLCOA 3 (sustained high-intensity incursion) is ongoing. Decision point for UAF to deploy or re-allocate strategic reserves to counter this new threat is immediate and continuous. The confirmed 23 RUF assaults repelled in the last 24 hours and the reported redeployment of over 20 trucks with personnel towards Sumy indicate this is a live and evolving situation with potential for escalation in the next 24-48 hours. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• Eastern/Southern Aerial Campaign: Ongoing, likely daily, with potential for increased intensity and geographical spread and a renewed ballistic missile component. Direct urban targeting of Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Kremenchuk with Shaheds/ballistic missiles is current and likely to continue. New ballistic threats to Poltava and Zaporizhzhia (now lifted) are immediate. New threat of aviation weapons use in Synelnykivskyi district is immediate. Decision point for UAF to request additional AD systems and munitions. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. The increased casualties from the July 3rd Poltava strike also reinforce this ongoing timeline. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)
• Donbas Ground Offensive & Northern Kharkiv: Continuous, no immediate end in sight. Decision point for UAF to conduct localized counter-offensives or reinforce specific sectors. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
• UAF Deep Strikes: Ongoing, likely to continue as long as RUF maintains pressure. Decision point for UAF to adjust targeting priorities based on RUF vulnerabilities and to assess RUF's AD response capabilities. The explosion at Ust-Luga port indicates successful deep strike operations are ongoing. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. (Updated)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

1. PIR 1 (HIGH): Confirm exact composition (unit types, armored vehicles, artillery systems), strength, and readiness levels of RUF forces operating in the Sumy Oblast border areas from Kursk Oblast, and their current intent for deeper penetration. This includes verifying the scale and specific units of the reported "20+ trucks with personnel." Collection Requirement: Persistent multi-source ISR (SATINT, SIGINT, IMINT, HUMINT if possible, OSINT) on RUF force generation, movement patterns, and logistical staging areas in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. Focus on indicators of imminent deep cross-border movement. This remains the #1 Intelligence Priority.
2. PIR 2 (MEDIUM): Assess the specific types, launch locations, and targets of ballistic missiles employed from the eastern axis, and whether this axis is now capable of sustained launches. Determine if the "fast-moving target" in Sumy is ballistic or a high-speed UAV. Collection Requirement: SIGINT and ELINT to pinpoint launch signatures and trajectories; IMINT of potential launch sites; forensic analysis of impact sites.
3. PIR 3 (MEDIUM): Determine the full impact of UAF deep strikes on RUF logistical networks in Belgorod, Lipetsk, Tula, Moscow, Kaluga, Nizhny Novgorod, St. Petersburg, Pskov, Leningrad and Krasnodar Krai (Novorossiysk). Collection Requirement: Post-strike BDA, IMINT of road networks, airport, and port operations, HUMINT from local population (if safe).
4. PIR 4 (LOW): Monitor for any indicators of RUF preparation or intent for the use of non-conventional weapons. Collection Requirement: All-source intelligence, particularly HUMINT, SIGINT, and OSINT from Russian military and political discourse.
5. PIR 5 (LOW): Confirm the scale and nature of any RUF gains at the Belgorod/Kharkiv junction and in the Poddubnoye area, and the capture of Sobolivka. Collection Requirement: IMINT, UAV reconnaissance, and ground force reporting.
6. PIR 6 (HIGH): Confirm the origin, trajectory, and type of ballistic missile threat that recently affected Kyiv and was subsequently lifted. Assess if this was a new launch point or system, or a re-engagement from a previously observed vector. Collection Requirement: SIGINT and ELINT on launch signatures; AD radar tracking; forensic analysis of potential impact sites if applicable.
7. PIR 7 (MEDIUM): Confirm the type and trajectory of the missile threat currently active in Kherson Oblast. Determine if it is a conventional ballistic missile, cruise missile, or an air-launched munition. Collection Requirement: AD radar tracking; SIGINT; forensic analysis of impact sites if applicable.
8. PIR 8 (LOW): Assess the claimed formation of UAF's 17th Army Corps, including its true composition and readiness, and the alleged redeployment of two additional UAF brigades to Kharkiv. Determine RUF's intelligence capabilities and potential disinformation efforts. Collection Requirement: UAF internal reports, HUMINT, open-source intelligence monitoring for indicators of new unit formations or reorganizations.
9. PIR 9 (MEDIUM): Determine the full extent of damage and casualties from RUF attacks on emergency services and civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad, and Kremenchuk. Collection Requirement: UAF damage assessment reports, OSINT (local media, social media), HUMINT from affected areas.
10. PIR 10 (MEDIUM): Determine the specific aviation assets active in the Synelnykivskyi district of Dnipropetrovsk and their intent (reconnaissance, strike, or electronic warfare). Collection Requirement: AD radar tracking, SIGINT.
11. PIR 11 (MEDIUM): Assess the veracity and implications of RUF claims regarding a concealed incident at the South Ukrainian NPP. Collection Requirement: IAEA reports, UAF internal reports, satellite imagery, and independent OSINT analysis for corroboration or refutation.
12. PIR 12 (LOW): Confirm the alleged encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Myrne, west of Donetsk, by RUF forces. Collection Requirement: IMINT, UAV reconnaissance, ground force reporting from the area.
13. PIR 13 (LOW): Assess the impact of anti-drone tarps on FPV drone effectiveness and thermal detection. Collection Requirement: UAF tactical reports, BDA, and technical analysis of encountered counter-drone measures.
14. PIR 14 (LOW): Verify RUF claims about Slovenia considering leaving NATO. Collection Requirement: Diplomatic reporting, official government statements, and reputable international media.
15. PIR 15 (MEDIUM): Confirm the extent of damage and impact on operations at Borisoglebsk airfield. Collection Requirement: High-resolution IMINT, SIGINT (analysis of changes in air activity/signatures), and OSINT from local sources.
16. PIR 16 (MEDIUM): Assess the full extent of damage and operational impact of the explosion and ammonia leak on the Eco Wizard tanker in Ust-Luga port. Collection Requirement: Satellite imagery, port activity monitoring, and OSINT from local sources.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Sustain High Readiness in Sumy Oblast (Immediate and Continuous): Maintain and reinforce primary and secondary defensive lines in threatened sectors of Sumy Oblast. Continue to pre-position mobile fire groups (ATGM teams, self-propelled artillery) and anti-tank reserves for rapid deployment to counter the ongoing and high-intensity RUF incursions. Conduct continuous reconnaissance-by-force missions to identify RUF forward elements and intentions. The confirmed 23 RUF assaults repelled in the last 24 hours and the reported redeployment of over 20 trucks with personnel towards Sumy highlight the critical importance of this posture and the potential for increased pressure. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
2. Reprioritize ISR to Sudzha Axis, Eastern Launch Zones, Borisoglebsk Airfield, and Ust-Luga Port (Immediate and Continuous): Direct all available ISR assets (UAVs, SATINT, SIGINT) to maintain constant, high-resolution surveillance of the Sudzha area and any potential ballistic missile launch zones to the East, as well as tactical aviation activity in Dnipropetrovsk. Focus on real-time tracking of RUF force movements, particularly any leading elements or unusual electronic signatures that might indicate a deeper offensive, and verify the scale of the troop redeployments towards Sumy. Additionally, allocate ISR to assess post-strike damage and operational impact at Borisoglebsk airfield and the Eco Wizard tanker/Ust-Luga port. This is the #1 Intelligence Priority. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
3. Enhance Multi-Layered Air Defense (Immediate and Sustained): Increase the deployment of EW systems, mobile anti-drone teams, and AD assets (e.g., Gepard, Avenger, short-range MANPADS) to protect UAF UAV control points and critical front-line positions. Prioritize deployment of newly acquired Patriot systems to protect key strategic assets or high-value military targets, considering the expanded reach and multi-domain nature (UAVs, KABs, ballistic, FPV) of RUF aerial threats across all affected oblasts, especially in Kharkiv (with increased civilian casualties and targeting of rescuers, and Chuhuiv), Kyiv (with 3 injured in Vyshhorodskyi District and recent ballistic threat, now lifted), Zaporizhzhia (with confirmed damage from 5 Shaheds and 1 injured, 3 multi-story buildings damaged), Kirovohrad (agricultural enterprise damaged), Kremenchuk (TCC/residential damage), and now Sumy/Poltava/Chernihiv and Kherson (new ballistic threats, FPV strikes, and targeting of rescuers). Ensure AD assets are positioned to counter threats from northern (Sumy/Chernihiv/Poltava/Kharkiv), southern (Black Sea/Mykolaiv/Odesa/Ballistic/Kherson), and eastern (recent ballistic threat, now lifted; new ballistic threats to Poltava and Zaporizhzhia, now lifted) axes. Actively track and intercept tactical aviation threats in Dnipropetrovsk. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
4. Sustain and Diversify Deep Strike Operations (Continuous): Continue and, where feasible, increase deep strike operations against RUF logistics, command nodes, and staging areas in Russian border regions (Belgorod, Kursk) and strategically significant internal regions (Lipetsk, Tula, Moscow, Nizhny Novgorod, Kaluga, St. Petersburg, Pskov, Leningrad) and critical infrastructure (Novorossiysk, Borisoglebsk airfield, Ust-Luga port) to disrupt their ability to sustain offensive operations and deter further incursions. Prioritize targets that directly impact the Sumy axis buildup and those that create maximum strategic disruption within Russia. Confirmed successful USV attacks in Novorossiysk, flight restrictions at Pulkovo, and the Ust-Luga port incident highlight the effectiveness of this approach. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
5. Review and Update Civilian Defense Protocols (Ongoing): Given the persistent and widespread aerial threats, including new KAB activity in Zaporizhzhia (with confirmed damage from 5 Shaheds and 1 injured, 3 multi-story buildings damaged), Kirovohrad (agricultural enterprise damaged), continued UAV activity in Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv (with 2 injured, damage confirmed), and Odesa, renewed ballistic missile threats (from South, now lifted, and recent threat for Kyiv, now lifted; new ballistic threats to Poltava and Zaporizhzhia, now lifted), direct Shahed strikes on Kharkiv (with increased casualties, and Chuhuiv damage, and civilian fatality), Kyiv (with 3 injured in Vyshhorodskyi District), and Mykolaiv (shrapnel damage/casualty), and now confirmed targeting of emergency services in Kharkiv and Kherson, and new strikes in Kremenchuk, review and update civilian defense and emergency response protocols in all eastern, central, and northern oblasts, focusing on rapid shelter access and emergency medical response. The confirmed KAB launches towards Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts necessitate updated civilian defense protocols in these areas. Pay particular attention to potential RUF information operations regarding forced evacuation (Zaporizhzhia) and prepare counter-messaging. The current missile danger in Kherson necessitates immediate review of protocols for southern oblasts, including for the protection of emergency responders. Prepare for counter-messaging regarding the South Ukrainian NPP incident claims to maintain public trust. Develop specific public messaging to counter RUF attempts to sow discord by praising alleged informers on TCC locations. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
6. Address Unit Resource Shortfalls (Immediate - Leadership Action): Command should immediately investigate and address the reported reliance of some UAF units on public fundraising for essential equipment. Prioritize direct supply lines and allocations to ensure all combat units are adequately equipped, especially those on active fronts or in high-risk areas. Implement strategies to mitigate challenges arising from civilian resistance to mobilization, as indicated by incidents like the one in Rivne Oblast. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
7. Evaluate and Adapt Counter-Drone Measures (Immediate): Given the video evidence of anti-drone tarps, UAF should immediately evaluate the effectiveness of these and other RUF anti-drone countermeasures. Develop and disseminate new tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) for UAF drone operators to overcome these adaptations, ensuring continued drone effectiveness. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
8. Enhance Minefield Awareness and Clearance (Immediate): Increase public awareness campaigns regarding mine threats, particularly in forest and abandoned areas of Kharkiv Oblast. Prioritize and allocate resources for mine clearance operations in affected civilian areas to reduce casualties. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

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END OF REPORT