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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-07-03 16:30:16Z
7 months ago
Previous (2025-07-03 16:06:02Z)

SITREP // 031624Z JUL 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

  • Donetsk Oblast: RUF maintains high-intensity offensive operations along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. Unverified claims of territorial gains persist, including Novoserhiivka, Shevchenko, Molodetske, Novoukrainka, and Novonikolaevka. RUF sources claim entry into Udachne and "liberation" of Chervona Zirka (Krasna Zirka), reinforced by RUF video. RUF forces are approximately 2.5 km from the suburbs of Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). UAF General Staff confirms Pokrovsk remains the hottest direction, repelling 41 assaults in the last 24 hours, with continued clashes near Popiv Yar, Myrne, Myrolubivka, Malynivka, Koptyeve, Promin, Lysivka, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Horikhove, and Oleksiyivka. UAF drone footage shows high RUF casualties near Pokrovsk. UAF General Staff reports continued clashes near Kurdumivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka, and towards Yablunivka. RUF control over a portion of Toretsk's ruins is confirmed, but UAF continues successful defense. Capture of an RUF soldier on the Toretsk direction by UAF 82nd Air Assault Brigade indicates active UAF defensive operations. RUF sources continue to indicate persistent focus on Chasiv Yar, claiming "completion is near". UAF General Staff confirms clashes near Chasiv Yar and towards Bila Hora. Russian forces have advanced into the Kanal microdistrict, establishing a foothold east of the canal. UAF units are conducting a tactical fighting withdrawal to more defensible, prepared positions on the western side. UAF drone footage shows strikes on trenches, fortified positions, and military vehicles in Rozdolivka and Chasiv Yar. RUF video shows a remote-controlled, tracked UGV equipped with a dual machine gun mount operating on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) direction. FPV drones of Russian forces are destroying UAF equipment and personnel on the outskirts of Konstantinovka. UAF sources confirm extensive destruction in Konstantinovka. UAF missile strike on Donetsk reported with smoke visible in the center and explosions. TASS confirmed at least 1 civilian death and 3 wounded from the strike on Donetsk. ASTRA reports three RUF servicemen were wounded in yesterday's strike on Donetsk. UAF Air Force reports RUF KAB/KAR launches from tactical aviation and threat of RUF strike UAVs (likely Shahed-type) in Donetsk Oblast. RUF video shows detailed drone reconnaissance footage of Ukrainian positions in Donbas, indicating advanced RUF ISR and targeting capabilities. UAF reports a successful strike on the command post of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in occupied Donetsk Oblast on 30 JUN. Losses are being clarified, with later UAF reports confirming the liquidation of RUF 8th Combined Arms Army acting commander, Lieutenant Colonel Ruslan Goryachkin. RUF video shows a FAB-500 strike on a UAF temporary deployment point in Novoyekonomicheskoye. UAF sources report successful strikes and high RUF casualties during tactical assaults by ATVs/motorcyclists in the Donetsk direction. BТУCOB ПЛЮС video shows a Russian soldier detonating an anti-personnel mine, indicating indiscriminate or reckless RUF tactics in mine-laden areas. TASS reports a Su-25 from the "Vostok" group destroyed a UAF strongpoint, indicating continued close air support for RUF ground units. Colonelcassad reports a Ka-52 helicopter engaged and shot down Ukrainian fixed-wing drones with Igla-V missiles. Сливочный каприз reports on a T-72 tank being destroyed near Borova-Druzhylivka by an FPV drone. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of an FPV drone destroying a BM-21 Grad MLRS. Підрозділ Shadow reports their UAV crew discovered an enemy artillery piece and ammunition storage, followed by friendly fire targeting and successful destruction. MoD Russia shares a video titled "00:00 A T-90 tank crew of the Tsentr Group of Forces neutralised an AFU machine-gun emplacement in Krasnoarmeysk direction." This confirms continued T-90 operations and targeting of UAF strongpoints in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides "Оперативна інформація станом на 16:00 02.07.2025 щодо російського вторгнення" (Operational information as of 16:00 02.07.2025 regarding the Russian invasion), confirming ongoing engagements. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video with caption "Потеря связи." (Loss of connection), showing an aerial view of a damaged building and an explosion, indicating continued RUF drone reconnaissance and targeting. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a morale-boosting message highlighting RUF artillery capabilities. Басурин о главном shares a video encouraging subscription to his Telegram channel, expanding RUF-aligned information reach. Colonelcassad reports on the Russian MoD's summary of the "special military operation" as of July 2, 2025. Воин DV shares a thermal/IR video of multiple explosions, indicating RUF artillery or air strikes. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of an alleged Russian soldier complaining about "prison-like" living conditions, lack of food, and being confined, appealing for help, suggesting potential internal RUF morale and logistical issues. НгП раZVедка shares a photo message "Хороший фотограф на вес золота." (A good photographer is worth his weight in gold), likely a morale-boosting post. Colonelcassad shares a morale-boosting video of a soldier engaging in a combat scenario. Старше Эдды shares photos from a meeting with officers in Rostov-on-Don, celebrating "Veterans of Combat Operations Day" and praising their service, a propaganda effort. Fighterbomber shares a video of a "Звено штурмовиков" (flight of attack aircraft), likely Su-25s, indicating continued RUF close air support. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video featuring a POW from the 155th Separate Marine Brigade, discussing contract service and conditions, indicating UAF leveraging POWs for counter-propaganda. Два майора shares a video with a man speaking about something "актуалочка" (current/relevant), likely propaganda. New video from Оперативний ЗСУ shows large explosions and a mushroom cloud, indicating powerful blasts, likely from UAF strikes. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition shares a video of tank crews from the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the "Vostok" group showing coordinated movement and firing while advancing. Воин DV shares a video showing a drone targeting and successfully striking an enemy ATV. Colonelcassad shares video of the 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion destroying UAF vehicles and armored vehicles. New enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected in Donetsk Oblast. UAF resources engaged. Воин DV FPV operators from the 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade continue to destroy enemy equipment near Oktyabrskoye. Два майора also report on the Zaporizhzhia front. Народная милиция ДНР shares video of destroyed UAF vehicle and armored vehicles near Poltavka. Kotsnews shares photo report on battles in Konstantinovka direction. UAF General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Poltavka, Mayak. UAF General Staff reports clashes near Popiv Yar, Poltavka, Myrne, Novoekonomichne, Myrolubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Udachne, Kotlyne, Novomykolayivka, Novoserhiyivka, Dachne, Oleksiyivka, Horikhove and towards Volodymyrivka, Novopavlivka, Razine, Molodetske (Pokrovsk direction). Басурин о главном states "Ukraine is drowning in blood: the reckless tactics of the Kyiv regime lead to catastrophic losses at the front," an RUF propaganda claim. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports heavy fighting and assaults are ongoing for Chasiv Yar. STERNENKO shares video of heavily damaged urban areas. MoD Russia reports Razino (Donetsk People's Republic) liberated. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of POW interrogation of Ivan Khamgueshev and Rustem Samiev, presumably Russian soldiers. Народная милиция ДНР reports an FPV drone of the 132nd Brigade destroyed a Ukrainian mortar position. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports significant activity of enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and over the Black Sea. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. Kotsnews reports Russian army liberated Melove and Razino. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares photo report on battles in Konstantinovka direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports an explosion or impact within a treeline from Ukrainian drone footage. ASTRA reports one woman wounded in Donetsk Oblast from shelling. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports an important object of the enemy military-industrial complex was hit and ammunition depots of Russian occupiers in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk Oblast were hit. TASS reports a FAB strike destroying a UAF command post on the DNR border. Воин DV shares aerial video of FAB strikes on Maliivka. Оперативний ЗСУ reports confirmed liquidation of RUF 8th Combined Arms Army acting commander, Lieutenant Colonel Ruslan Goryachkin. Narodnaya militsiya DNR confirms destruction of a UAF mortar position near Rusyn Yar. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims destruction of 56th Separate Mechanized Brigade ammunition depot near Kramatorsk. Операция Z reports "Fierce battles near Pokrovsk: 'Brave' forces burn NATO equipment, enemy infantry and artillery day and night," with video showing drone footage targeting and destroying a truck, SUV, mortar position, and a UAV. Colonelcassad reports destroyed Bushmaster, M113, and Mastiff vehicles on the Southern Donetsk direction. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition reports the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade has been "effectively decapitated" by a missile strike in Huliaipole. Оперативний ЗСУ reports successful strike by 3rd MB OPBR "BULAVA" using a "Queen Hornet" drone equipped with a Bullspike disposable, targeting an enemy position, confirmed by video. (031606Z JUL 25) Операция Z reports "Kiev, with a 'strike in Telegram', 'liquidated acting commander of the 8th Army Colonel Goryachkin'," confirming an RUF internal report and indicating the liquidation of the HVT. (031607Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH (on most claims and observations, MEDIUM for specific unverified territorial control/BDA, LOW for RUF veracity, LOW on tactical nuclear weapon claim).

  • Luhansk Oblast: UAF General Staff reports all enemy attacks repelled in the Lyman direction (including near Nadiya, Novoyehorivka, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Yampolivka, Hrekivka, Torske and towards Serebryanka and Hryhorivka). RUF claims regarding the "liberation" of Petrovske (Hrekivka) and complete "liberation of LNR," later corrected by RUF sources stating two more villages near the border need to be cleared. UAF drone attack on Luhansk confirmed, causing fires and active RUF air defense. TASS reports over 20 UAVs flew over Luhansk. RUF conducted a combined strike to disrupt UAF rotation near Nadiya. RUF claims UAF were "knocked out" from the majority of positions on the heights near Bilohorivka. TASS claims 35 UAVs shot down over LNR, debris fell on a fuel depot, and one civilian woman was wounded. Рыбарь reports on the "liberation" of Grekovka (Luhansk Oblast) and Novomikhailovka (Donetsk Oblast) by Russian forces. UAF General Staff reports clashes near Ridkodub, Torske, Hrekivka, Hryhorivka, Zelena Dolyna, Yampolivka, Karpivka, Kolodyazi and towards Cherneschyna, Shandryholove, Seredne and Novyi Myr (Lyman direction). Mash на Донбассе reports an explosion in Luhansk (Shevchenko district) with accompanying video of a damaged building. TASS reports one person killed and wounded in Luhansk explosion. ASTRA reports on an explosion in Luhansk. Colonelcassad reports one killed and several wounded in Luhansk explosion, likely a terrorist attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports two killed in Luhansk explosion, with military personnel present at the scene. Оперативний ЗСУ reports two killed and one wounded in Luhansk explosion. Alex Parker Returns reports a terrorist attack in central Luhansk, with one preliminary fatality and near a museum opening an exhibition on the Kursk operation. ASTRA reports one killed and three wounded in Luhansk explosion. Mash na Donbasse video shows a significant burst pipe or damage to an external heating or water pipe system in Lugansk. UAF sources confirm liquidation of former "mayor" of occupied Luhansk, Manolis Pilavov, via IED. RUF sources also confirm Pilavov's death, attributing it to a "terrorist attack." TASS reports on the situation at the explosion site in Luhansk. Rybar video shows military personnel investigating a damaged building in Luhansk following an explosion. РБК-Україна reports former head of Luhansk occupation administration liquidated by SBU. Two Majora report death of former Luhansk mayor Manolis Pilavov from explosion near museum. Confidence: HIGH (on most claims and observations, LOW for unverified RUF territorial claims).

  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF attacked Nikopol district overnight with heavy artillery and FPV drones; 12 RUF UAVs were shot down. 4 civilians wounded in Nikopol due to FPV drone attack. RUF claims strikes on railway infrastructure, fuel depots, ammunition warehouses, and logistics routes in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Kryvyi Rih: Confirmed Shahed attack on a military enlistment office (TCC), with 3 civilians wounded. RUF claims 114th Brigade "liberated" Dachne, with supporting video evidence. UAF Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD) claims Russians did not break through to Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, with battles ongoing near the administrative border. UAF sources confirm overnight RUF drone strikes on farm enterprises in Pokrovske and Velikomykhailivka communities in Synelnykivskyi district. RUF channel "Операция Z" claims Russian forces "forced the Mokri Yaly river, breaking through into Poddubnoye and Voskresenka, advancing towards Dnipropetropavsk Oblast." RUF missile strike on Kamianske district, causing a fire and civilian casualties (killed and wounded), including agricultural infrastructure damage. RUF video shows Russian forces raising their flag in Chernovaya Zirka, DNR, near the Dnipropetrovsk border. UAF video features Ukrainian soldiers discussing high attrition rates. Colonel Zakharevych, commander of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, confirmed dead in Huliaipole, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Video showing RUF presence in Dachnoye (Dachne), Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, including flag raising and inspection of buildings. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photos/videos show RUF capturing Dachne and raising Russian flag. STERNENKO reports RUF forces have indeed entered Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and shows drone footage of an RUF dugout in Dachne, contradicting the UAF General Staff's previous denial to RBC-Ukraine. STERNENKO's latest message at 09:13Z re-confirms the "kamikaze entry" into Dachne. UAF General Staff, at 09:07Z, issued a statement contradicting RUF claims, stating that any small reconnaissance groups that managed to penetrate the administrative border were destroyed. They re-emphasize their denial at 09:11Z and RBC-Ukraine reports the UAF General Staff's denial at 09:20Z. This creates a direct and immediate intelligence contradiction that requires further collection. Оперативний ЗСУ video shows two alleged RUF soldiers who "were lucky to survive during penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast" speaking about surrender and defection to UAF, implying some RUF elements were contained or captured during penetration attempts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photo message (09:46Z) explicitly states "Dachne remains under the control of the Defense Forces - UAF General Staff." Воин DV video shows operators of the 5th Tank Guards Brigade conducting remote mining of a road near Voskresenka, confirming RUF intent to impede UAF movement in the area where they claim breakthroughs. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 indicates that UAF units on that direction are clarifying the situation. Colonelcassad publishes a video claiming to show the "first captured Ukrainian soldier to surrender in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast" from the 79th Brigade, which RUF states is attempting to close the breakthrough in the southeastern part of Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Kadyrov_95 video is propaganda about alleged Ukrainian POW. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Олександр Вілкул (likely local Ukrainian official) posts photo messages referring to local initiatives for rebuilding or strengthening infrastructure. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Дніпропетровська область (Синельниківський р-н) - загроза застосування авіаційних засобів ураження!" (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district) - threat of aerial weapon use!). STERNENKO reports "За віцепрем’єра Олексія Чернишова внесли заставу у 120 млн грн." (120 million UAH bail posted for Vice Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov), an internal Ukrainian legal development. Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing on the results of 02 JUL 25 for Kryvyi Rih. Colonelcassad reports that the deputy commander of the 110th Mechanized Brigade, Romanyuk, was also killed alongside Zakharevych in Huliaipole. Военкор Котенок shares photo messages with the caption "Днепропетровское направление," indicating ongoing operations. TASS reports that Ukrainian forces have abandoned their positions in Dachne, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, according to Igor Kimakovsky. UAF Zaporizhzhia OVA reports a civilian woman injured in Polohy district due to RUF attack. Операция Z claims "Valiant" forces are breaking through towards Myrnohrad and Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Colonelcassad reports Russian soldier, Alexander Ershov, from the 80th Tank Regiment, claims capture of Petrovskoye and Yalta, and reaching Zirka – Poddubnoye, a significant claim. UAF Army Aviation and Anti-Aircraft Missile Forces celebrate their day in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Олександр Вілкул reports public transport usage in Kryvyi Rih. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RUF missile strike on Huliaipole, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on 01 JUL. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports "In the morning, the enemy attacked Velykomykhailivka community in Synelnykivskyi district with a KAB." Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports meeting with representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the farewell ceremony for Colonel Serhii Zakharevych. Rybar reports an Iskander strike destroyed the entire staff of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade in Huliaipole. BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports UAF capture of 9 RUF soldiers from a failed offensive into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, further contradicting RUF claims. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports housing support for veterans. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition reiterates the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade's decapitation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video on failed RUF offensive into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, featuring an interview with a captured Russian soldier from the 144th Motor Rifle Regiment, confirming UAF successful defensive operations and prisoner capture (031620Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH (on civilian casualties, drone attacks, and RUF claims of presence in Dachne; MEDIUM on verified RUF control of Dachne given strong, persistent UAF denials; CRITICAL intelligence contradiction regarding broader RUF penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and associated UAF prisoner claims).

  • Sumy Oblast: UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi states Russian troops advance in border areas has been completely stopped and the contact line stabilized. UAF General Staff reports repelling 22 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. UAF drone footage shows State Border Guard Service of Ukraine (ДПСУ) units "Prime" destroying enemy targets in the Kursk direction. RUF is conducting KAB launches and drone activity into Sumy Oblast. Konotop: MoD Russia claims "Geran-2 UAVs destroyed a temporary deployment area of the AFU 58th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade and a UAV depot." UAF drone footage shows several deceased Russian soldiers in a "demilitarized buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast. RUF claims a company of UAF soldiers was destroyed in Yunakivka. RUF claims a fight near Tyotkino with Russian paratroopers storming positions. RUF claims repelled UAF counterattacks in Sumy Oblast. UAF General Staff publishes a map showing the frontline in Sumy Oblast for the first time since February. RUF Msta-S howitzer crew destroyed UAF fortified positions and personnel near Yunakivka. UAVs from Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts are moving towards Poltava Oblast. STERNENKO shows a reconnaissance drone being intercepted in Sumy Oblast by "Prime" forces. TASS reports video claiming drone operators of "Rubicon" center destroyed a Leopard 2A6 tank in Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast and a "High-speed target." РБК-Україна reports a passenger minibus was damaged by a drone attack in Sumy. WarGonzo reports Russian tanks and artillery are breaking UAF logistics in Sumy Oblast, confirming RUF presence in the "grey zone." Два майора reports drone activity in Sumy direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Сумська область - загроза застосування ворогом ударних БпЛА." (Sumy Oblast - threat of enemy strike UAVs.). STERNENKO reports "Загроза ударних БПЛА із північного сходу." (Threat of strike UAVs from the northeast.) TASS reports an outflow of population from Sumy, citing Russian security forces. Colonelcassad reports Ussuriysk paratroopers destroying UAF infantry in Sumy Oblast. TASS reports the 425th Separate Assault Regiment's 2nd Assault Company is almost entirely missing in action on the Sumy direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in the southern part of Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast. New enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected in Sumy Oblast. UAF resources engaged. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports threat of RUF strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a target in Sumy Oblast from Kursk direction, heading towards Bilopillia. РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Konotop, Sumy Oblast, citing the mayor. Nikolaevsky Vanek warns of 8 "mopeds" (Shahed UAVs) en route to/through Konotop, then reports "minus" for mopeds in Konotop. Operativny ZSU reports explosion in Konotop. UAF General Staff reports repelling 13 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports significant activity of enemy reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and over the Black Sea. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports significant activity of enemy reconnaissance UAVs. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a target in Sumy Oblast towards Mykolaivka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photo messages "Kursk Oblast," indicating Russian border activity. STERNENKO shares video of a truck being destroyed in Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. STERNENKO shares FPV drone footage of reconnaissance and strikes against military vehicles and settlements in Sumy Oblast. Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. STERNENKO donates to "Shahed Cutter" (AD system). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports threat of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. Confidence: HIGH (on stabilized front line, UAF defensive successes, and ongoing RUF KAB/drone activity; MEDIUM on specific unverified HVT loss; MEDIUM for claimed Leopard destruction due to RUF source; MEDIUM on population outflow, as it is from a RUF source; MEDIUM on TASS claim of UAF losses, awaiting UAF confirmation).

  • Kharkiv Oblast: RUF continues aviation airstrikes (Vilkhuvatka, Pidlyman) and ground clashes near Vovchansk, Hlyboke, Stroyivka and towards Kutkivka, and Kupyansk direction near Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka and Zelenyi Hai. Vovchansk: RUF video confirms a TOS-1A heavy flamethrower system strike on the "butter extraction plant." Pisochyn: 8 people injured, including one child, from RUF drone attack. Korotych airfield: RUF claims strike on airfield. Clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Zelene, Hlyboke, Vovchanski Khutory, Krasne Pershe, Dovhenke and towards Petro-Ivanivka (South Slobozhansky direction) and Holubivka, Pischane and towards Novoosynove (Kupyansk direction). Kharkiv experienced a record number of Russian air attacks in June 2025. RUF video shows the destruction of a UAF L-119 howitzer in Kharkiv Oblast, Kupyansk direction. RUF claims forces have secured positions near Kondrashovka and occupied approximately 3 hectares near Petropavlovka. RUF claims security forces destroyed Ukrainian National Guard "Khartiya" brigade officers in Liptsy. Hostile UAV detected over Kharkiv. Explosion in Kharkiv, city under drone attack. One-story non-residential building on fire in Novobavarskyi district. One person killed, one wounded in Kharkiv Oblast from night attacks. RUF claims first use of "Chernika" loitering munitions on targets in Kharkiv. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the Kharkiv direction. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports an air defense unit of the "Iron Brigade" successfully hunted down enemy targets yesterday. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts a video showing a Ukrainian FPV drone successfully targeting and engaging a Russian "Orlan-10" reconnaissance drone. Oleg Synyegubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reports on the operational situation. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports Kharkiv communities received vehicles from the German government. РБК-Україна shares video of SFO soldiers showing a successful raid on Russians near the border, including a captured soldier. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "🛸 На Харківщині - ворожий розвідувальний БпЛА! Можлива робота ППО." (Kharkiv Oblast - enemy reconnaissance UAV! Possible air defense activity.). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast from the east. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports "Двоє людей постраждали внаслідок атак ворожими FPV-дронами на Харківщині." (Two people injured as a result of enemy FPV drone attacks in Kharkiv Oblast). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video titled "ССО провели наліт на групу росіян поблизу кордону" (SFO conducted a raid on a group of Russians near the border), showing UAF Special Operations Forces conducting an operation. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА posts "🏠 Родини Захисників з Харківщини отримали сертифікати на нове житло." (Families of Defenders from Kharkiv Oblast received certificates for new housing.). Kadyrov_95 (Akhmat Special Forces 'Baty' Group) claims to have destroyed a Ukrainian dugout with personnel inside on the Kharkiv direction. "ZONA SVO" channel repeats this claim. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides an informational/recruitment video for "Khartia" unit. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new UAV movement from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast. РБК-Україна reports impact drones are observed in Kharkiv Oblast. Colonelcassad reports the destruction of a UAF T-64BV tank by "Rubicon" FPV drone operators in Kharkiv Oblast. TASS reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted more than 15 attacks near Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, losing about 250 soldiers and 12 armored vehicles in unsuccessful counterattacks. New RUF reports indicate that Ivanovske paratroopers destroyed a UAF observation post in a residential building in Chasiv Yar. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports an updated estimate of RUF combat losses (as of 03 JUL 25), with 1000 personnel killed or wounded in the last 24 hours. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports enemy strikes on 4 settlements. TASS reports UAF has reinforced its grouping in Bohuslavka, Kharkiv Oblast, with a new unit – the Unmanned Systems Forces. Air Force reports targets in Izium. Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts. OTU Kharkiv provides an informational message. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Hlyboke, Zelene, Vovchansk, Milove, Ambarne and towards Mytrofanivka and Mala Shapkivka (South Slobozhansky/Kharkiv direction) and near Stepova Novoselivka, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Zelenyy Hay and towards Petropavlika (Kupyansk direction). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА shares photos and text of AD forces and cooperation with Saxony. TASS reports Russian forces liberated Melove in Kharkiv Oblast. Два майора reports Russian MoD statement on liberation of Melove. MoD Russia reports Melovoye (Kharkov region) liberated. Oleg Synehubov reports civilian male wounded in Savynska community. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video claiming Ukrainian males from Kharkiv fled to Romania. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports over 282 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast territory were demined. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports destruction of an enemy assault group near Vovchansk. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА posts photos of air defense personnel celebrating Air Defense Missile Forces Day. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares video claiming "Liberated Melovoe in Kupyansk direction" showing RUF forces on a rooftop with flags. TASS shares new video of "North" Group forces in Melove, Kharkiv Oblast. Операция Z shares video and photo messages claiming the Russian flag was raised over Melove in Kharkiv Oblast. Alex Parker Returns shares video and photo messages claiming the administration building in Melove, Kharkiv Oblast, has been liberated. Confidence: HIGH (on airstrikes, ground clashes, civilian casualties, and continued RUF offensive intent; HIGH on RUF intelligence regarding UAF drone training; HIGH on RUF volunteer fundraising for combat operations).

  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF claims breakthrough to the center of Kamyanske on the Zaporizhzhia front. Battles for Kamyanske are in full swing. UAF General Staff reports continued clashes near Kamyanske, and near Malynivka (Huliaipole direction). Kadyrovites (Chechen special forces) are being prepared for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction, with approximately 15 military trucks moving them to Enerhodar / Melitopol / Vasylivka area. RUF attack on an agricultural enterprise in Polohy district. Civilian vehicle engulfed in flames in Zaporizhzhia after a Russian attack. RUF launched 4 strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Zaporizhzhia district. A 56-year-old man was wounded in Polohy district. Complex night in Zaporizhzhia, with one district subjected to Shahed drone attacks. Over 400 shellings across the region, with 4 drones hitting an industrial enterprise and one Shahed hitting a residential area. RUF channel reports artillery of the 35th Army continues to work on "planned targets" in the Polohy direction. Two people wounded from an enemy attack on Polohy district. RUF posts multiple photos and videos confirming a night strike by "Geraniums" (Shahed drones) on industrial infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia. UAF operational information as of 08:00 (local time) and photos confirming UAF strikes on enemy locations. Colonel Serhiy Zakharevych, commander of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, killed in Huliaipole. RUF reports strike on the 110th Brigade in Huliaipole, claiming the death of the brigade commander and other officers. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on positive harvest forecasts. WarGonzo shares a video showing aerial reconnaissance or drone footage capturing ground-level activity in a wooded or brushy area. Colonelcassad reports FSB detaining three residents of Zaporizhzhia Oblast for transferring funds to Ukrainian special services and military. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photos of tax officials receiving awards. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts "🚨УВАГА🚨" (ATTENTION) likely a warning for air threats. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also posts photo messages about an upcoming Facebook and Instagram live stream and another about the head of Polohy district administration discussing the war's impact. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an educational project "ELITA UFUTURE" for schoolchildren. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports a 70-year-old woman was wounded in Orikhiv. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia. Операция Z reports RUF has secured positions in the center of Kamyanske and is cutting it into two parts. Военкор Котенок shares photo messages with the caption "Запорожское направление." New UAF message "🚨УВАГА🚨" from Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration likely indicates ongoing air threat. New RUF video shows mortar fire and destruction of positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction. WarGonzo map indicates UAF offensive actions (grey drone icon) near Malaya Tokmachka and Shcherbaky, and offensive actions (red drone icon) near Stepove. RUF also making tactical advances indicated by red arrows north of Kamenskoye, near Shcherbaky, and north of Malaya Tokmachka. Два майора shares video of RUF forces in the Zaporizhzhia direction. РБК-Україна reports HUR showed unique footage of the destruction of RUF drone operators in the Zaporizhzhia direction. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photos on veterans participating in Greco-Roman wrestling. Zaporizhzhia OVA shares video celebrating Army Aviation Day. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Kamyanske (Orikhiv direction). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photos and text of AD forces. Воин DV reports 63rd Separate Special Forces Company, 35th Army annihilating UAF manpower in Polozhsky direction. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photos of a construction site for a new underground school. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts "Імена, що назавжди залишаться поруч" (Names that will forever remain nearby), suggesting a memorial context. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of HUR destroying Russian drone operator positions in Zaporizhzhia direction. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports expanded social support for military personnel. Воин DV reports 68th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade continues to lose equipment near Novopavlovka. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration announces annual charity run 'Honoring Warriors, Running for Heroes'. STERNENKO shares drone footage of 'Kryla OMGA' special unit targeting RUF logistics at night. Оперативний ЗСУ reports "SFO fighters successfully took control of one of the enemy positions near the settlement of Kamyanske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast" with video of personnel digging trenches. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issued an air raid warning. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Zaporizhzhia Oblast - missile danger!". 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 is livestreaming. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports termination of air raid alert. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports all threats for Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv Oblasts terminated. STERNENKO shares drone footage of Ukrainian 'RONIN' unit from the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade stopping RUF forces in the Zaporizhzhia direction (031621Z JUL 25). Confidence: HIGH (on civilian casualties, drone attacks, artillery activity, and Kadyrovite buildup; LOW on verified RUF control of Kamyanske; HIGH on civilian support and resilience efforts; HIGH on FSB operations in occupied territories).

  • Kherson Oblast: RUF and UAF reports indicate continued positional fighting, shelling, and aerial reconnaissance. RUF photos indicate continued presence and focus. UAF posts photos of civilian infrastructure damaged by RUF shelling. RUF shelled the Central District of Kherson, killing one man and wounding another. A hospital in Kherson was attacked by RUF artillery yesterday around 23:00, resulting in 5 wounded patients and 3 wounded nurses. RUF claims "Dnipro" grouping artillery destroyed a UAF Grad MLRS. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports an enemy helicopter conducting reconnaissance near the Black Sea coast. Два majora (RUF source) shares a video of a Russian military truck with an anti-aircraft gun operating in the Kherson direction. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs) reports a meeting with families of marine infantry brigades (34th, 35th, 36th, 37th, 39th Separate Marine Infantry Brigades) regarding soldiers captured or missing in action near Krynky. Сили оборони Півдня України (Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine) shares a video with the caption "Ворог продовжує обстрілювати цивільних та медичні заклади!" (The enemy continues to shell civilians and medical facilities!), showing the aftermath of shelling on a medical facility in Kherson. This confirms continued RUF targeting of civilian infrastructure. Colonelcassad reports a conviction in the Kherson Oblast Court for a Russian citizen transferring information to Ukrainian special services. UAF General Staff reports only one RUF ship in Black Sea and six in Azov, none with Kalibrs, indicating degraded RUF naval presence. Сили оборони Півдня України reports 16 enemy assaults repelled in the last 24 hours in Orikhiv and Kherson directions. RUF suffered losses of 135 personnel, 4 guns, 2 mortar launchers, 2 reconnaissance UAVs, 2 EW stations, 2 communication stations, 1 engineering vehicle, 1 boat, and 1 vehicle. RUF launched 10 Lancet UAVs, 1 tactical aircraft KAB strike, and 12 FPV drones, all targeting the Orikhiv direction. RUF continues to shell settlements on the right bank of the Dnipro, causing significant destruction. Два майора shares video of Russian forces in the Kherson direction. UAF General Staff reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 2 Russian army assaults (Kherson direction). Два майора posts a video "This morning in Belgorod Oblast. People live in such conditions for years," implying continued cross-border shelling impacting civilian life. Николаевский Ванёк shares video of a captured RUF soldier from the Dachne area, likely from an offensive push into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Nikolaevsky Vanek shares new video depicting drone footage, likely a UAF drone, targeting and destroying an RLM-D 55Zh6M NEBO-M radar system. The video overlay displays Ukrainian text, reinforcing its origin. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Odesa Oblast: Significant overnight RUF Shahed UAV attacks. A multi-story residential building was hit, resulting in two confirmed civilian fatalities (a married couple) and four injured. 14 Shahed UAVs were destroyed by UAF AD. Odesa Coastal Logistics/Oil Refinery: RUF reports a "powerful strike and huge fire" at an enemy object near Odesa, with video evidence. TASS reports RUF struck an oil terminal supplying fuel to the Ukrainian Navy. NASA satellite data corroborates fires in the area of grain and fuel terminals. UAF Naval Forces report no Russian naval presence in Black Sea, 2 ships in Azov, 1 in Mediterranean (no missile carriers). UAF video shows destruction of an "aerial target (Geran)" over Odesa. Explosion of the "Vilamoura" tanker of Russia's "shadow fleet" in the Mediterranean Sea on June 27, citing GUR. RUF reports discovery of "Geranium" UAV debris in Odesa with unusual two-letter tail numbers. RUF drone attacks on Izmail district damaged port and tourist infrastructure. Rybar reports on strike results in Vilkovo, Odesa region. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 indicates that UAF is suspected in a series of tanker explosions after they entered Russian ports. RUF source "Два майора" reports Financial Times (FT) claims Ukrainian special services may be involved in blowing up Russian ships. Николаевский Ванёк reports 5 RUF "mopeds" (Shahed UAVs) flying towards Odesa/Lymanka, warning of imminent loud events, with 4 subsequently downed. РБК-Україна reports AD activity in Odesa Oblast. РБК-Україна reports explosions in Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a UAV heading towards Odesa. Николаевский Ванёк confirms 1 drone remaining heading towards Odesa and then reports all drones from the sea are down. РБК-Україна reports damage to residential buildings in Odesa, citing Trukhanov. ASTRA shares photos of apartments burning in a residential high-rise in Odesa after an RUF attack. РБК-Україна reports Odesa is under drone attack. РБК-Україна reports damage to residential buildings in Odesa. РБК-Україна reports five people were rescued from upper floors in Odesa. РБК-УкраїНА shares video footage showing firefighters and rescue operations in a damaged nine-story building in Odesa. РБК-Україна also shares photos of the aftermath. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm 3 civilians hospitalized after Odesa attack. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares new photo and video messages showing the aftermath. ASTRA reports 4 people injured. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of the Odesa apartment building being hit. РБК-Україна reports 5 people, including 2 children, were injured. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms 5 casualties, 2 children injured. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports 40 of 52 enemy UAVs were shot down. Север.Реалии shares photo messages depicting a multi-story residential building damaged by a drone hit. ASTRA reports the number of injured increased to five. Сили оборони Півдня України (Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine) reports 10 Shahed-131/136 UAVs were destroyed in the southern operational zone. Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine post images commemorating Army Aviation Day. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares images of apartment building on fire in Odesa. Сили оборони Півдня України posts videos and photos showing the aftermath. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports ballistic missile threat to Odesa. Air Force reports high-speed target towards Odesa. RBK-Ukraine reports explosion in Odesa. Operativny ZSU reports ballistic missile threat from Crimea for Odesa. STERNENKO reports Odesa under ballistic missile strike. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports ballistic missile strike in Odesa. Два майора shares photos of Odesa. Colonelcassad reports a missile strike in the Odesa port area with a huge smoke plume. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports ballistic missile strike in Odesa, with possible repeated launches. Военкор Котенок reports two powerful explosions in Odesa port area. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announces termination of ballistic missile threat. Операция Z shares photos of the Odesa port area after missile strike, confirming target as port infrastructure. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares photos of the Odesa port area after missile strike, confirming target as port infrastructure and military cargo. РБК-Україна reports two killed and three wounded in Odesa after ballistic missile attack. Оперативний ЗСУ reports two killed and three wounded in Odesa due to strike on port infrastructure. ASTRA reports two killed and three wounded. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RUF attacked port infrastructure in Odesa with missiles. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the number of injured from the Iskander strike on Odesa port has risen to 6, including two Syrian citizens. WarGonzo comments on "marine terrorism" and the VILAMOURA tanker explosion. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports "Second ballistic missile arrival in Odesa today: smoke over the city again." Confidence: HIGH.

  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Mykolaiv was struck by ballistic missiles (6 Iskanders) and Shahed UAVs overnight, with confirmed impacts on infrastructure. RUF claims destroyed Kulbakino airfield in Mykolaiv. RUF claims destroyed a large UAF live force deployment point near Snihurivka. Astra reports Russia attacked Ukraine with 114 drones and 4 S-300 missiles overnight. Confidence: HIGH (on attacks and civilian impacts; MEDIUM on specific RUF BDA claims).

  • Kyiv Oblast: Massed RUF overnight attack included cruise missiles passing Slavutych towards Kyiv. UAF AD was operating effectively. Two UAF Air Force pilots, Lieutenant Colonel Maksym Ustymenko and Oleksiy "Moonfish" Mes, killed while repelling the attack. UAF General Staff confirmed a massed missile-drone attack with over 500 air targets launched and 475 targets neutralized, with an additional 226 suppressed by EW. Ukrainian UAV manufacturer founder warns Kyiv may become "most vulnerable and dangerous" due to critical air defense deficit. Syrskyi states basic general training will be increased from 49 to 51 days, with two additional days for training against enemy strike UAVs. UAF General Staff posts photos from a meeting regarding countering Russian strike UAVs. KVA complains about lack of modular shelters. Zelenskiy signed documents for the ratification of the Agreement on the creation of a Special Tribunal regarding the crime of Russian aggression. KVM A (Kyiv City Military Administration) states that Klychko (Mayor of Kyiv) claims there are no powers to place mobile shelters. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RUF source) claims "Kyiv is in a panic due to the halt of US supplies." РБК-Україна reports a meeting of the Japanese business delegation took place in Kyiv. Zelenskyy states that details regarding US defense support and air defense components are being clarified and mentioned preparing new agreements with Denmark and other partners for joint weapons production. KVM A (Kyiv City Military Administration) repeats Zelenskyy's statement. KVM A announces an air raid alert in Kyiv due to UAV threat. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast, and later confirms a UAV heading towards Kyiv from the east. РБК-Україна confirms the UAV movement. KVM A reports that air defense is operating in the capital. РБК-Україна confirms explosions and AD activity in Kyiv. KVM A announces the end of the air raid alert. ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states 40 of 52 enemy UAVs were neutralized overnight. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts photos showing air defense operations. КМВА posts video commemorating Day of Army Aviation. РБК-Україна reports a farewell to deceased F-16 pilot Maksym Ustymenko. Оперативний ЗСУ shares photos of the farewell ceremony. Zelenskiy / Official shares video regarding agreement on Ukrainian-American cooperation for drone production. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine signed a memorandum with US company Swift Beat (ex-Google CEO) for joint drone production. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of strike UAVs heading for Chernihiv Oblast. РБК-Україна reports Zelensky announced the production of hundreds of thousands of "anti-Shahed" drones this year. Air Force reports enemy UAV approaching Kyiv from northeast. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports a single RUF UAV ("moped") flying towards Kyiv via Brovary. Kyiv City Military Administration announces air raid alert in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraine confirms air raid alert in Kyiv. Operativny ZSU reports air raid alert in Kyiv. RBK-Ukraine reports enemy drone over Kyiv. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announces "Відбій загрози застосування балістичного озброєння." (All clear for ballistic missile threat.). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new enemy UAV heading towards Chernihiv Oblast from Kyiv Oblast. РБК-Україна reports metro line movements. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Cherkasy Oblast: RUF attacked Smila with missiles and drones, resulting in 11 casualties, including 2 children, and damage to three nine-story buildings and a college. UAF AD shot down most incoming threats. Operativny ZSU photo message from SBU about an FSB agent exposed for helping prepare shelling of Cherkasy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports SBU exposed a 20-year-old student preparing new strikes on Cherkasy Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Poltava Oblast: Kremenchug: RUF video confirms a successful strike on the Kremenchug oil refinery. UAV groups are moving from Sumy Oblast to Poltava Oblast, heading south. Strike UAVs from Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts are moving towards Poltava Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new UAV movement from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast. РБК-Україна reports on updated data about the movement of strike drones from Air Force. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in the southern part of Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast. Explosions reported in Poltava. UAF Air Force reports UAVs heading towards Poltava from the north and west. RBK-Ukraine confirms drone activity near Poltava. Poltava City Council reports Poltava was under a massive attack by Russian drones. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition shares a video of an aerial explosion over an urban area, claiming "Geraniums" (Shahed drones) struck a TCC building in Poltava. Colonelcassad confirms the Poltava strike with a video of a large smoke plume, stating "Geraniums" hit a "local lair of man-catchers" (referring to TCC). Alex Parker Returns also reports the strike on the Poltava TCC building. STERNENKO reports explosions in Poltava from Shahed attacks. Два майора shares videos of a "Geranium" impact on a TCC building in Poltava. РБК-Україна reports RUF attacked a TCC building in Poltava. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video confirming three Shaheds hit the Poltava TCC with fatalities and injuries. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms an RUF strike on Poltava's TCC, causing a fire. STERNENKO reports fatalities and injuries from the Poltava TCC strike, including civilians. Colonelcassad shares videos of strikes on the Poltava TCC. Voenkor Kotenok shares video of "Geraniums" distributing "gifts" to Poltava residents. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС shares dashcam footage of the Poltava TCC strike. RBK-Ukraine reports 2 killed and 11 wounded in Poltava. Operativny ZSU reports 2 killed and 11 wounded in Poltava. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports 2 killed and 11 wounded after hits on TCC and nearby buildings. РБК-Україна shares photos of aftermath. ASTRA reports 2 killed, 11 injured. РБК-Україна reports military personnel are among the injured. Операция Z reports UAF confirmed 4 military personnel wounded. Север.Реалии reports 2 killed. РБК-Україна reports on a video explaining why Russia attacks TCCs. РБК-Україна reports 21 people sought medical attention. ASTRA shares video footage. РБК-Україна reports 28 people sought medical attention. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 28 casualties. Оперативний ЗСУ reports 47 injured, including police. РБК-Україна confirms 47 injured. Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing for Kryvyi Rih. Confidence: HIGH (on strikes and UAV activity; HIGH on UAF internal anti-corruption efforts).

  • Lviv Oblast: Drohobych: RUF video shows multiple missile/drone impacts and explosions at a refinery in Drohobych, Lviv Oblast. Freight train derailed in Rivne Oblast. Discovery of cluster munitions after an RUF attack in Lviv Oblast. ASTRA reports SBU detained an Air Force major in Lviv Oblast suspected of espionage for Russia. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs) reports a meeting with families of POWs and missing persons in Lviv. Coordination Staff for POW Affairs reports a meeting with families of the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Zhytomyr Oblast: Colonelcassad reports "Missile strikes in Zhytomyr." The accompanying video by Colonelcassad shows a significant explosion and plume of smoke near a gas station and warehouse, corroborated by РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ. New messages confirm a strong explosion in Zhytomyr, with media reports suggesting an impact at a gas station or fuel object, with associated photo and video evidence from multiple sources. РБК-Україна reports multiple explosions at a gas station in Berezino village. Alex Parker Returns also reports explosions near Zhytomyr and that the explosion occurred at a warehouse of an industrial enterprise in Berezina. Multiple sources confirm a large explosion in Zhytomyr or near the Zhytomyr-Kyiv highway. The M-06 Kyiv - Chop highway is closed. Casualties are reported. The impact affected civilian houses. UAF sources are verifying the exact site. РБК-Україна reports a video from a gas station. РБК-Україна reports the Zhytomyr OVA has published phone numbers for assistance. Colonelcassad shares new video of the aftermath. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides video evidence, stating the epicenter was not the gas station itself. ASTRA reports a SOCAR gas station was damaged with casualties. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video of the explosion near a McDonald's. Два майора shares multiple videos of the Zhytomyr explosions. РБК-Україна reports that over 700 homes were de-energized. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that two production facilities were completely destroyed near Zhytomyr, with 2 killed and 15 injured. Alex Parker Returns reiterates the destruction of two production facilities. РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in Zhytomyr has risen to 24. РБК-Україна confirms both Zhytomyr explosions occurred at a private enterprise. Старше Эдды claims the Zhytomyr explosion was at an ammunition depot on a furniture factory premises. Операция Z and Оперативний ЗСУ share new video messages of the aftermath. Movement on the Kyiv-Chop highway has been fully restored. Оперативний ЗСУ reports injured in Zhytomyr region increased to 82, with 2 killed. РБК-Україна shares video detailing 82 injured. Два майора shares dashcam video. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС shares video of yesterday's explosion on the M-06 highway near Zhytomyr. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports furniture factory detonated. Confidence: HIGH (on explosions and civilian impact; MEDIUM on exact target; HIGH on casualty increase).

  • Russian Territory (Saratov / Engels / Ulyanovsk / Rostov Oblast / Kazan / Nizhnekamsk / Izhevsk / Nizhny Novgorod Oblast / Khabarovsk Krai / St. Petersburg / Ukhta / Moscow / Tambov / Voronezh / Lipetsk / Yelets / Samara / Kotovsk / Irkutsk): Saratov/Engels: Explosions and sirens reported. Three drones fell on the territory of the Saratov oil refinery. Temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure imposed at Saratov airport. Ulyanovsk: Temporary flight restrictions. Rostov: RUF Air Defense destroyed UAVs over Rostov, Taganrog, and five districts. Kazan: Temporary flight restrictions. Nizhnekamsk: Nizhnekamsk Airport suspended operations. RUF MoD claims 60 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions. Izhevsk: Drone attack on a military enterprise, "Kupol" (produces Tor and Osa AD systems and drones). Confirmed by SBU and UAF General Staff. Personnel evacuated, firefighters extinguishing fires. At least 9 people injured, rising to 45 injured, 3 killed, 35 hospitalized, 10 critical. ASTRA posts photos with caption "Four UAV production workshops damaged at Izhevsk 'Kupol' plant after yesterday's attack. Enterprise operation stopped." This confirms successful UAF deep strike. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 and STERNENKO confirm damage to the Izhevsk 'Kupol' plant. ASTRA reports internet jamming in Izhevsk for two weeks prior. Confidence: HIGH (on impact, MEDIUM for precise figures). Crimea: UJ-26 "Bober" UAVs attacked Russian radar systems, air defense, and a Su-30 aircraft. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС reports "Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet liquidated in Crimea, - z-milbloggers." Confidence: MEDIUM (requires further verification). Nizhny Novgorod Oblast: An Su-34 fighter jet crashed. Navigator died. Pilots ejected. Main landing gear malfunction. Saratov oil refinery: UAF General Staff officially confirmed attack. TASS reports an ongoing criminal investigation into the head of "Forpost Baltiki Plus," Evgeny Kononov, for embezzlement. TASS reports a Headhunter mobile application failure. TASS reports Russian MoD claims ВС РФ за сутки поразили предприятие ВПК, цеха сборки БПЛА и места их хранения (VPC enterprise, UAV assembly workshops, and storage sites). Kotsnews reports Северяне уничтожили две вражеские ДРГ в окрестностях Горналя (Northern forces destroyed two enemy DRGs in the vicinity of Gornal). ASTRA reports a postgraduate student convicted for anti-war actions was released in St. Petersburg. WarGonzo reports a monument to "Motorola" in Ukhta. TASS reports the former first deputy head of Khimki, Nikolay Minaev, was arrested. ASTRA reports additional memorial plaques for war dead being installed in Saratov. Полиция Хабаровского края reports МВД awards for police officers. Север.Реалии reports Russian companies sharply increased wage arrears. Воин DV shares a thermal/IR video. TASS reports a case of supplying low-quality body armor. Север.Реалии reports 459 combatants received title of Hero of Russia, 217 posthumously. Moscow: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС reports "Several explosions thundered in the center of Moscow." Операция Z reports "In the center of Moscow, a car with an 80-year-old KGB veteran and his daughter exploded." TASS reports a new court arrest in the Ural murders case. TASS shares two new videos regarding the filming of a music video for "Intervision-25." TASS reports a case of "detonation of a powder box" in Chelyabinsk. ASTRA reports arrests of Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg and schoolchildren held in Grozny. ASTRA shares a video of an urban explosion in Russia, an industrial fire/smoke, and a military-looking truck. ASTRA also shares comments from Izhevsk residents complaining about internet jamming. TASS reports the CIA acknowledged its assessment of Russian interference in the 2016 US elections might have been politically motivated. TASS reports Russian airlines transported almost 50 million people. TASS reports Durov denies Telegram leaving Russia. Colonelcassad reports a Chinese journalist wounded in Kursk Oblast returned to work. TASS reports the MFA urges Russian citizens in Azerbaijan to be careful. Colonelcassad reports Rostec launched an ammunition plant in Venezuela. ASTRA reports a Belarusian blogger was added to the Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" list. Alex Parker Returns shares video of an alleged "Wahhabist suicide bomber" in Naberezhnye Chelny. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares video of families planting trees. Colonelcassad reports the CIA officially disavowed accusations against Russia. MoD Russia shows a daily news update including claims of destroying a Ukrainian Humvee and a Leopard 2A6 tank. Colonelcassad describes the Izhevsk attack as a possible "Web" or "Luty" modernization. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) reports an air threat warning for Lipetsk Oblast and a drone attack threat on Usmana and Dobrinsky districts. TASS reports that the Pentagon states the US had warned Ukraine in advance about the suspension of certain weapons supplies. TASS reports Russian calculations of UAF losses (over 265,000 killed and wounded in H1 2025). Colonelcassad reports continued mine clearance in Sudzha border area. TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Tambov airport. ASTRA also confirms temporary flight restrictions at Tambov airport. ТАСС reports Russian AD destroyed over 5 drones over Voronezh Oblast. ASTRA reports roof damage to a private house in Voronezh Oblast. РБК-Україна posts multiple videos of alleged unknown drones attacking Lipetsk Oblast. ASTRA reports residents of Lipetsk and the surrounding oblast reported a large number of explosions. Igor Artamonov, Lipetsk Oblast Governor, confirmed that drone debris fell on a private residential building, resulting in one fatality and two injuries. Colonelcassad shares photo messages stating that TsNIITOCHMASH has increased production of universal packaging for high-precision munitions. Igor Artamonov also reports a drone strike on a building in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast. TASS reports the arrest of the deputy head of Roshydromet. ASTRA reports the governor of Lipetsk Oblast stated that drone debris fell on a private residential building, resulting in one fatality and two injuries. Igor Artamonov reports a fire caused by a drone falling on a parking lot of an enterprise in Yelets. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of drones visiting Russia at night. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС shares video reporting an attack on the sanctioned "Energiya" enterprise in Yelets. ASTRA shares new video footage from Lipetsk night attacks. TASS reports RUF AD destroyed 69 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Russian regions. TASS reports temporary flight restrictions lifted at Tambov airport. TASS reports 3 killed and 3 injured in a fire at an enterprise in Kotovsk, Tambov Oblast. TASS and ASTRA report temporary flight restrictions in Samara airport. Igor Artamonov reports cancellation of the "yellow" (moderate) level of missile danger in Lipetsk Oblast. TASS reports a patient attacked medical staff with a knife in Irkutsk. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports 69 enemy UAVs were destroyed by Russian AD overnight. TASS reports flight restrictions at Ulyanovsk airport. STERNENKO shares video of a UAV attack on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast. RBK-Ukraine shares new footage and images of the aftermath. RUF MFA spokesperson Maria Zakharova states work is underway to ensure consular access to Russian journalists arrested in Azerbaijan. RUF Governor of Lipetsk Oblast, Igor Artamonov, visited victims. Север.Реалии reports the Ministry of Defense stated 69 drones were shot down, and a woman died in Lipetsk Oblast. Igor Artamonov reports drone debris found in Lipetsk, Yelets, and Lipetsk district. ASTRA reports a 23-year-old Russian woman was detained in St. Petersburg by the FSB for attempting to plant an explosive device. AV БогомаZ reports Ukrainian drone attack on Lomakovka, Starodubsky municipal district. TASS reports Prosecutor General's Office demanding nationalization of "Yuzhuralzoloto." ASTRA reports three killed and three injured in a fire at an enterprise in Tambov Oblast. TASS reports mobile internet will be restricted in Rostov Oblast. TASS reports a man arrested for attacking polyclinic staff. Север.Реалии reports Petersburg police detained a woman suspected of preparing a terrorist attack. TASS reports property of head of construction supervision department of MoD Kozhevnikov has been arrested. ASTRA shares a photo message that the Prosecutor General's Office is demanding nationalization of a gold company. TASS reports 3 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Samara and Belgorod Oblasts. Север.Реалии reports a woman (Yulia Moskovskaya) was detained for preparing a terrorist attack. Военкор Котенок shares photo message titled "Repressions against the Azerbaijani diaspora are gaining momentum." МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts "Places for the names of the dead have run out on the stele in Saratov." Операция Z shares photo message on "Ukraine on the verge of defeat." БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports drones attacked "Energiya" enterprise in Yelets. TASS reports MoD liberated Razin in DPR. TASS reports briefing from MoD. Два майора reports MoD summary. Оперативний ЗСУ reports powder factory fire in Kotovsk, Tambov Oblast, due to UAV strike. Colonelcassad reports FSB detained a woman in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. TASS reports Mikhail Gudkov, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, was killed in Kursk Oblast by missile strike on field headquarters, along with his deputy, Colonel Shikhaliev. ASTRA, Военкор Котенок, Alex Parker Returns, Kotsnews, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, Rybar, RBK-Ukraine, Colonelcassad, Операция Z confirm this HVT loss. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on a detained girl in St. Petersburg. TASS reports Ulyanovsk airport restrictions lifted. Север.Реалии reports the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy died in the war. Colonelcassad shares a map. Рыбарь shares a photo message titled "Electric chair for Armenia." TASS reports the Central Bank has not discussed forced transfer of pension savings. Новости Москвы reports a Russian won 100 million rubles in a lottery. ТАСС reports that Nabiullina stated fears about a crisis in the Russian banking sector are completely unfounded. Север.Реалии reports an oncologist was detained for justifying terrorism. Север.Реалии reports the EU plans sanctions against judges and security forces. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports that an important object of the enemy military-industrial complex was hit. РБК-Україна reports UAF General Staff confirmed a strike on the "Energiya" plant in Lipetsk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ reports UAF General Staff confirmed a strike on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports a strike on Khalino airfield in Kursk, damaging an aviation weapons storage complex and possibly a Pantsir-S1. ASTRA reports temporary flight restrictions at Nizhnekamsk and Izhevsk airports due to drone attacks. TASS reports an attack by UAV on one of the objects in Udmurtia. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms a UAV attack on an object in Udmurtia. TASS reports one of the drones attacking an object in Udmurtia hit technical facilities. TASS reports that Russia lost approximately 40% of its working-age population. ASTRA reports a doctor-oncologist was detained. РБК-Україна reports Russians are complaining about unknown drone attacks in Udmurtia. Операция Z reports explosions and shooting in Izhevsk (Udmurtia). Igor Artamonov has held an operational meeting. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims "Geranium" drone strikes on 56th Separate Mechanized Brigade ammunition depot near Kramatorsk. Два майора reports two drones attacked Udmurtia. TASS reports concert by Emin postponed in Kaliningrad. Two Majora video identifies Nebo-M radar system destroyed in Crimea. MoD Russia video shows "Geran" UAV precise strikes. Sever.Reali reports police broke teacher's arm in Ryazan. Colonelcassad shares video appeal for donations. RBK-Ukraine shares video claiming UAF destroyed three Nebo-M key radars. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RUF destroyed a UAF UAV control point in Chernihiv Oblast. TASS reports "Минкультуры РФ назвало фейком документы от имени ведомства." (RF Ministry of Culture called fake documents). TASS reports on a child injured at Sheremetyevo airport. AV БогомаZ reports "Over the territory of Bryansk Oblast, a fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicle was detected and destroyed." Рыбарь shares a photo message "Youth is fleeing." TASS reports "Temporary restrictions at Izhevsk and Nizhnekamsk airports have been lifted." TASS reports "Нет никаких сомнений, что ЦБ в июле будет рассматривать снижение ключевой ставки." (No doubt that the Central Bank will consider reducing key rate.). Оперативний ЗСУ reports UAF successfully struck Khalino airfield in Kursk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports UAF successfully struck Khalino airfield. Alex Parker Returns reports the main naval parade in St. Petersburg for Navy Day on July 27 has been canceled for security reasons. ASTRA reports the cancellation of the Main Naval Parade in St. Petersburg due to security measures. Новости Москвы reports on banking card blocking. (031607Z JUL 25) Глеб Никитин shares multiple photo messages about the selection process for the "Heroes. Nizhny Novgorod Region" program, with 60 people selected and 30 in reserve for the next batch, indicating continued efforts for social programs supporting military personnel or veterans. (031607Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH (on UAF deep strikes and RUF AD activity; MEDIUM on precise figures for shot-down UAVs; LOW on veracity of some RUF claims; HIGH on new RUF legislative measures impacting conscription/mobilization; HIGH on ASTRA report of casualties and wage arrears; HIGH on Lipetsk drone threat, HIGH on US warning to Ukraine, LOW on TASS UAF loss figures).

  • International: ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZ reports on Chinese blocking Guam. Kotsnews reports Russian MFA warned citizens about travel to Azerbaijan. Alex Parker Returns shares a video featuring a female spokesperson from the Russian MFA. РБК-Україна reports "Lukashenka released another 16 people after Kellogg's visit." ТАСС reports "Russian Ambassador to Azerbaijan was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs." ТАСС further reports "Protest expressed to the Russian Ambassador summoned to the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs." ТАСС also reports "Complaints received from Russians in Azerbaijan about physical violence, document checks, visits by unknown persons." ТАСС reports "Azerbaijan has not responded to notes demanding consular access to arrested Russians." These confirm a significant diplomatic spat between Russia and Azerbaijan. Военкор Котенок and Операция Z amplify these reports. РБК-Україна reports "Russians caught in Germany on propaganda through online media." Colonelcassad reports "A gang of Ukrainian citizens involved in abducting illegal migrants was liquidated in Poland," likely an RUF information operation. Rybar reports on strike results in Vilkovo, Odesa region. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 indicates that UAF is suspected in a series of tanker explosions. RUF source "Два майора" reports Financial Times (FT) claims Ukrainian special services may be involved in blowing up Russian ships. Николаевский Ванёк reports 5 RUF "mopeds" (Shahed UAVs) flying towards Odesa/Lymanka, and 4 downed. РБК-Україна reports AD activity in Odesa Oblast. РБК-Україна reports explosions in Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a UAV heading towards Odesa. Николаевский Ванёк confirms 1 drone remaining heading towards Odesa and then reports all drones from the sea are down. РБК-Україна reports damage to residential buildings in Odesa, citing Trukhanov. ASTRA shares photos of apartments burning in a residential high-rise. РБК-Україна reports Odesa is under drone attack. РБК-Україна reports damage to residential buildings. РБК-Україна reports five people were rescued. РБК-УкраїНА shares video footage showing firefighters and rescue operations. РБК-Україна also shares photos of the aftermath. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm 3 civilians hospitalized. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares new photo and video messages. ASTRA reports 4 people injured. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of the Odesa apartment building being hit. РБК-Україна reports 5 people, including 2 children, were injured. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms 5 casualties, 2 children injured. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports 40 of 52 enemy UAVs were shot down. Север.Реалии shares photo messages depicting a multi-story residential building damaged. ASTRA reports the number of injured increased to five. Сили оборони Півдня України (Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine) reports 10 Shahed-131/136 UAVs were destroyed. Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine post images commemorating Army Aviation Day. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares images of apartment building on fire. Сили оборони Півдня України posts videos and photos showing the aftermath. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports ballistic missile threat to Odesa. Air Force reports high-speed target towards Odesa. RBK-Ukraine reports explosion in Odesa. Operativny ZSU reports ballistic missile threat from Crimea for Odesa. STERNENKO reports Odesa under ballistic missile strike. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports ballistic missile strike in Odesa. Два майора shares photos of Odesa. Colonelcassad reports a missile strike in the Odesa port area. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports ballistic missile strike in Odesa. Военкор Котенок reports two powerful explosions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announces termination of ballistic missile threat. Операция Z shares photos of the Odesa port area. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares photos of the Odesa port area. РБК-Україна reports two killed and three wounded in Odesa. Оперативний ЗСУ reports two killed and three wounded. ASTRA reports two killed and three wounded. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RUF attacked port infrastructure. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the number of injured from the Iskander strike on Odesa port has risen to 6, including two Syrian citizens. WarGonzo comments on "marine terrorism." Zelenskiy / Official states "Communication with media representatives together with Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen, President of the European Council António Costa and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen." 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reiterates Zelenskyy's statement. РБК-Україна reports "Denmark expressed support for Ukraine's accession to the European Union." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video on Ukraine and American company Swift Beat signing a memorandum. РБК-Україна reports "We expect continued American support, because there are certain positions that Europe cannot provide, - Zelenskyy." РБК-Україна shares photo of Zelenskyy and Trump with text "Ukraine needs a meeting with Trump and Putin to achieve peace." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Putin and Trump are currently in a phone conversation. TASS reports consul of RF in Baku held a three-hour meeting with detained Russians. (031614Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports Putin-Trump conversation lasted almost an hour. (031615Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports Trump raised the question of ending military actions in Ukraine. (031616Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports Putin-Trump conversation was businesslike and specific. (031616Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports negotiations in Istanbul will remain bilateral. (031616Z JUL 25) Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports Putin noted Russia's readiness to continue negotiations. (031616Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports specific dates for a third round of Istanbul talks were not discussed. (031617Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports theme of US arms suspension was not discussed. (031617Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports Putin and Trump agreed to continue communication. (031617Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports Putin and Trump discussed Iran and the Middle East. (031618Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports any Putin-Trump conversation can be arranged within a day. (031618Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports last to hang up were translators. (031619Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports Putin congratulated Trump on 4th of July and noted Russia's contribution to American statehood. (031619Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports Putin told Trump that Russia will not deviate from its goals to eliminate the causes of conflict in Ukraine. (031620Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports Putin and Trump did not discuss possibility of meeting today, but "the idea is in the air." (031621Z JUL 25) Оперативний ЗСУ reports Trump and Putin spoke for almost an hour. (031621Z JUL 25) STERNENKO reports Trump-Putin conversation ended. (031623Z JUL 25) Два майора comments on the Trump-Putin call, noting it seems positive amidst news of US aid suspension. (031624Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

  • Ukraine: European reports of temperatures up to +42°C suggest potential heat stress on personnel and equipment across Ukraine. Confidence: HIGH.

  • Russia: North Atlantic cyclone "Cornelius" arrived in Moscow, bringing 3 days of rain and colder temperatures. Discernible earthquake in Kamchatka. TASS reports Putin joked about the coming winter. Temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been imposed at Tambov airport, Saratov airport, and Nizhnekamsk and Izhevsk airports. Igor Artamonov, Lipetsk Oblast Governor, reports a "Red" (High) level alert for UAV attack has been cancelled in the region. TASS reports temporary restrictions have been lifted at Tambov airport and Izhevsk/Nizhnekamsk airports. TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Samara airport and Ulyanovsk airport. Новости Москвы confirms Day of the City in Moscow will be held on September 13-14. The Governor of Bryansk Oblast (RUF) posted a message. Новости Москвы reports heatwave of over +30C expected in Moscow by mid-next week. TASS reports 5,000 people evacuated in Crete due to wildfires. Moscow News reports a train smoking at Kaluzhskaya station. Alex Parker Returns reports the main naval parade in St. Petersburg for Navy Day on July 27 has been canceled for security reasons. ASTRA reports the cancellation of the Main Naval Parade in St. Petersburg due to security measures. Confidence: HIGH.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

  • RUF Dispositions:
    • Donetsk: High-intensity offensive continues on Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. Confirmed presence of units from the "Center" and "Vostok" groups, 30th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, and VDV (98th Guards Airborne Division confirmed in Chasiv Yar, 247th Air Assault Regiment). TASS reports the "Vostok" grouping destroyed 17 UAV control points and advanced in Zeleny Pol, Novod Rozv, and Vesele areas. TASS video reports a Su-25 of the RUF VKS destroyed a UAF strongpoint. Colonelcassad reports Ka-52 helicopter operations. MoD Russia shares a video titled "00:00 A T-90 tank crew of the Tsentr Group of Forces neutralised an an AFU machine-gun emplacement in Krasnoarmeysk direction." Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video of tank crews from the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the "Vostok" group showing coordinated movement and firing. TASS reports that artillery crews of the "Center" group destroyed a UAF forward command post. Colonelcassad shares a video "Идем на Покровск: Результаты работы FPV группировки ЦЕНТР" (Going to Pokrovsk: Results of the FPV group Center's work). New RUF video shows mortar fire and destruction of positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction. TASS reports that Ivanovske paratroopers destroyed a UAF observation post in a residential building in Chasiv Yar. Два майора provides a general morning summary for July 3. Zvиздец Мангусту reports elements of RUF's 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 29th Combined Arms Army, have deeply penetrated the flank defending Pokrovsk and Novopavlovsk axes. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Ivanovske paratroopers "liberated" Nikolaevka on the Chasiv Yar direction. Народная милиция ДНР shares video of destroyed UAF vehicle and armored vehicles near Poltavka. Kotsnews shares photo report on battles in Konstantinovka direction. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports heavy fighting and assaults are ongoing for Chasiv Yar. TASS reports Russian forces liberated Razin in DPR and Melove in Kharkiv Oblast. Два майора reports Russian MoD statement on liberation of Melove. MoD Russia reports Razino (Donetsk People's Republic) liberated. Народная милиция ДНР reports an FPV drone of the 132nd Brigade destroyed a Ukrainian mortar position. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares photo report on battles in Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad reports Russian forces continue to advance in the Donetsk direction. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares thermal footage of a convoy and explosion. Два майора video shows military personnel with a truck-mounted MLRS. Воин DV shares aerial video of FAB strikes on Maliivka. Colonelcassad video shows a BTR-4 being targeted and hit by a drone near Suvorovo. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows a BM-21 Grad MLRS firing. Narodnaya militsiya DNR confirms destruction of a UAF mortar position near Rusyn Yar. WarGonzo shares video of RUF artillery operations. BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of UAF capturing 9 RUF soldiers from the 425th Separate Motorized Rifle Battalion "Skala." Операция Z reports "Fierce battles near Pokrovsk: 'Brave' forces burn NATO equipment, enemy infantry and artillery day and night." Colonelcassad confirms that in addition to the brigade commander and deputy commander, the chief of staff of the 110th Mechanized Brigade was also liquidated in Huliaipole. Colonelcassad reports destroyed Bushmaster, M113, and Mastiff vehicles on the Southern Donetsk direction. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition reports the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade has been "effectively decapitated." Colonelcassad shares a general greeting. Два майора posts a series of photos under the caption "Soldier's Everyday Life." Kotsnews shares photo messages under the caption "Heroes of 'Potok' told about their feat." Colonelcassad shares a video of captured UAF soldiers near Komar. Два майора shares a graphic video on combat medics. Операция Z shares video and photo messages claiming the Russian flag was raised over Melove in Kharkiv Oblast. Alex Parker Returns shares video and photo messages claiming the administration building in Melove, Kharkiv Oblast, has been liberated. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Zaporizhzhia: Kadyrovite (Chechen special forces) transfer to Enerhodar/Melitopol/Vasylivka area with 15 military trucks indicates a significant buildup for potential assault operations. Confidence: HIGH.
    • ASTRA reports five Su-34 fighter jets were damaged in a UAV attack on a military airfield in Volgograd Oblast on June 27. Confidence: HIGH.
    • RUF video shows operators of RUF "Bars-31" drone unit destroying a truck with a UAF anti-aircraft gun. Confidence: HIGH.
    • TASS reports Russian air defense shot down three Storm Shadow missiles, three HIMARS projectiles, and 173 UAVs in the last 24 hours. Confidence: HIGH.
    • TASS reports Lukashenka's statement about "Oreshnik" deployment in Belarus by year-end. Confidence: HIGH.
    • TASS reports "High-Precision Systems" holding shipped a new batch of BMP-3s to the Ministry of Defense. Kotsnews shares a video "A new batch of BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles went to the troops." Colonelcassad shares video of new BMP-3 deliveries from Rostec. Confidence: HIGH.
    • RUF is actively recruiting for the "African Corps," indicating continued intent to deploy foreign/mercenary forces. Операция Z shares graphic video of RUF African Corps and Mali army fighting "Al-Qaeda." Confidence: HIGH.
    • RUF (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) is appealing for donations to acquire a BM-21 Grad MLRS to counter UAF drones and for combat missions. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video confirms receipt of Mavic 3 drones from public donations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a new video appeal for donations for "Paratroopers." "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a video with a caption "Collection for Paratroopers." Confidence: HIGH.
    • TASS video reports "Geran-2 UAV operators destroyed a temporary deployment point of the AFU in Yablonovka." MoD Russia video shows precise Geran UAV strikes. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Воин DV video shows drone strikes on UAF personnel and vehicles by the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade. Воин DV shares photo messages on a senior scout-sniper from the 14th Guards Separate Brigade of Army Special Forces. Colonelcassad shares a photo of a Russian soldier. Воин DV shares new video of a 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operator discovering and destroying a UAF vehicle. "Воин DV" shares a new video showing a captured UAF soldier being used for propaganda. Colonelcassad shares a video titled "Practice on powder: training - only a cartridge. The rest is real." Воин DV shares two new videos, captioned #ГероиСпецоперацииV. Colonelcassad shares video of a deputy political officer for the 'Wolves' DRShBr. Confidence: HIGH.
    • TASS reports the Federation Council approved a law allowing stateless persons to serve by contract in the RF Armed Forces. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Оперативний ЗСУ reports North Korea will send up to 30,000 additional troops to assist Russia. Операция Z amplifies this report. Воин DV posts a photo message "Delegation of the DPRK Military Academy went to Russia." Confidence: HIGH.
    • МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video shows a Russian soldier in uniform. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Воин DV video shows drone operators of the 5th Tank Guards Brigade conducting remote mining of a road in Voskresenka. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Народная милиция ДНР photo message initiates a "Large summer collection of aid for children of Donbas and the SVO zone." Народная милиция ДНР video messages indicate ongoing volunteer efforts to provide humanitarian aid. Confidence: HIGH.
    • TASS reports the Russian MoD claims over 1,235 UAF military personnel lost in the last 24 hours. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports an updated estimate of RUF combat losses (as of 03 JUL 25), with 1000 personnel killed or wounded in the last 24 hours. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts a photo message "😱 успешно демобилизирован:". Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts a photo message "😱 успешно демобилизирован:". Confidence: LOW (self-serving RUF claim, no independent verification).
    • Два майора (RUF source) shares a "Good morning!" message. Confidence: LOW (generic sentiment).
    • Басурин о главном reports that a Leopard 2A6 tank was captured by RUF forces. Confidence: MEDIUM (requires visual corroboration and context).
    • MoD Russia publishes photo messages on the progress of the special military operation. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Fighterbomber posts a photo of a "swan" (likely a Tu-160 bomber). Fighterbomber shares video of an aircraft in a field and being towed by a tractor. Confidence: MEDIUM.
    • Воин DV posts two video messages with the caption #ГероиСпецоперацииV. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows Russian snipers from the 49th Army operating. Два майора (RUF source) shares a video of a Russian military truck with a mounted anti-aircraft gun. Kadyrov_95 [Video message] Caption: Propaganda video about alleged Ukrainian prisoner of war. TASS reports Medvev claims over 210,000 contract soldiers joined Russian Armed Forces. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts morale patches for "Wolfling 45" unit. Colonelcassad shares video of FSB detaining individuals in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for funding UAF. Colonelcassad shares video of Dmitry Medvedev discussing military recruitment numbers. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shows a video of new BMP-3 deliveries to the troops. MoD Russia's Grad MLRS crews of the 25th Combined Arms Army destroyed a UAV command post and manpower clusters. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video showcasing a camouflaged tank. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides "Operational information as of 16:00 02.07.2025." АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video with caption "Loss of connection." Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a morale-boosting message highlighting RUF artillery capabilities. Басурин о главном shares a video encouraging subscription to his Telegram channel. Colonelcassad reports on the Russian MoD's summary. Воин DV shares a thermal/IR video. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of an alleged Russian soldier complaining. НгП раZVедка shares a photo message "A good photographer is worth his weight in gold." Colonelcassad shares a video of a soldier engaging in a combat scenario. Старше Эдды shares photos from a meeting with officers in Rostov-on-Don. Fighterbomber shares a video of a "flight of attack aircraft." БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video featuring a POW from the 155th Separate Marine Brigade. Два майора shares a video with a man speaking about something "current/relevant." Rybar posts two new videos of what appears to be RUF soldiers in a training environment. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition shares new video of tank crews from the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. MoD Russia shows a video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman. Воин DV operators of "Boоtur" BARS-2 unit destroyed a Ukrainian tank. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a summary for July 2. Colonelcassad posts a video of a civilian Lada being converted into a military "buggy." Colonelcassad reports on a new laser-based anti-UAV system. Воин DV shares a video of a 37th Brigade guardsman carrying a wounded comrade. MoD Russia shows a photo update with "Top News Today." Colonelcassad reports the destruction of the Ukrainian armored vehicle "Novator." Colonelcassad shares a video of an emotional speech from a captured Ukrainian serviceman. Воин DV posts video of drone operators destroying a Ukrainian tank. Colonelcassad shares video of a military vehicle being hit by a precision munition. Fighterbomber shares a photo message "Good morning, country!". Colonelcassad shares a photo of a Russian soldier. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of RUF soldiers in wheelchairs seeking new volunteers. Kotsnews shares a video on recruitment for the African Corps. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video of individuals on ATVs. MoD Russia shares a video of an Orlan UAV aiming artillery. Colonelcassad shares a video of a civilian child being apprehended. Colonelcassad shares video of new BMP-3 deliveries. Colonelcassad shares videos about support fund for SVO. Colonelcassad shares videos of soldiers in the field. Alex Parker Returns posts a video "This is, undoubtedly, a success!" ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "The stage of acceptance of the Russian occupier." Оперативний ЗСУ reports captured Russians from the 810th Separate Marine Brigade giving testimony. Kadyrov_95 posts a video celebrating the Day of State Traffic Inspectorate. MoD Russia daily summary. Операция Z reports Russian troops liberated Razino and Melove. TASS reports Russian MoD struck UAF ammunition depot near Kramatorsk with Geran-2 UAV. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of three POWs being interrogated. Alex Parker Returns shares a video of an alleged Wagner Group fighter. Alex Parker Returns posts statement that strikes on TCC are Russia's attempt to disrupt mobilization. Alex Parker Returns shares an image with the caption "Geraniums have become the main strike force of our country." Два майора shares multiple photo messages with a caption "Soldier's everyday life." Colonelcassad shares video showing camouflage uniforms and an ammunition crate. Оперативний ЗСУ shares aerial reconnaissance video of a person in camouflage. Colonelcassad shares video of 'Rubicon' drone operations. MoD Russia shares video of signalmen of 25th Combined Arms Army. Два майора video shows military personnel with a truck-mounted MLRS. Colonelcassad reports a collection drive for assault and reconnaissance units. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares video claiming RUF destroyed a UAF UAV control point. TASS shares new video of "North" Group forces in Melove, Kharkiv Oblast. Colonelcassad shares a video on the "Liberation of Melove." Два майора posts a series of photos under the caption "Soldier's Everyday Life." Kotsnews shares photo messages under the caption "Heroes of 'Potok'." Colonelcassad shares a video of captured UAF soldiers near Komar. Два майора shares a graphic video on combat medics. Операция Z shares video and photo messages claiming the Russian flag was raised over Melove. Alex Parker Returns shares video and photo messages claiming the administration building in Melove, Kharkiv Oblast, has been liberated. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Control Measures: RUF continues to use extensive electronic warfare (EW) to suppress UAF communications and drone operations, alongside layered air defense to protect its assets. UAF Air Force reports RUF tactical aviation launching guided aerial bombs (KAB/KAR) into Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad shares video of Russian artillerymen thanking volunteers for an EW system. Colonelcassad shares a video titled "Interception of radio exchange of 425th Separate Assault Regiment 'Skala' in the Krasnoarmeysk area." Mash на Донбассе posts a video "Ukrainian drones often go back to their former owners." ASTRA reports internet jamming in Izhevsk prior to the attack. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video questioning "ПВО? РЭБ? Анатолий?". Colonelcassad reports on a new laser-based anti-UAV system. Полиция Хабаровского края reports МВД awards for police officers saving a civilian. Полиция Хабаровского края video shows a Russian police official discussing the first stage of a "Illegal-2025" operation. Полиция Хабаровского края shares new video messages related to police activity. TASS reports RUF AD destroyed 69 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Russian regions. Colonelcassad (RUF source) reports on "Rubicon" combat groups targeting air defense systems. Два майора's video from Kherson direction shows a thermal imaging view from a drone and sounds of small arms fire, indicating RUF counter-UAS operations. Полиция Хабаровского края shares two videos related to a domestic scam. Moscow News posts photos of traffic police cars equipped with systems for identifying drivers without licenses. TASS reports mobile internet will be restricted in Rostov Oblast. TASS reports 3 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Samara and Belgorod Oblasts. ТАСС reports on the roof of a dormitory in Tula being restored. WarGonzo shares video of "frontline traffic lights" warning drivers about enemy drones. TASS video shows Putin arriving at a forum, discussing technological development and scientific and technological initiatives. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Governor) has held an operational meeting. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports conviction of a woman for correcting RUF missile and drone attacks. RBK-Ukraine shares video claiming UAF destroyed three Nebo-M key radars. Confidence: HIGH.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

  • Capabilities:

    • Ground Offensive: Demonstrated capability for sustained high-intensity ground assaults, particularly along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, and in Chasiv Yar, utilizing combined arms tactics. Observed use of MT-LBs with infantry in assault. Confirmed use of Grad MLRS in the Pokrovsk direction. TASS video reports a Su-25 from the "Vostok" group destroyed a UAF strongpoint. Воин DV video shows remote mining by drone operators. MoD Russia video shows BM-21 Grad MLRS crews destroying a UAV command post and manpower clusters. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares video of a camouflaged tank. MoD Russia video shows a T-90 tank crew neutralizing a UAF machine-gun emplacement. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition shares new video of tank crews from the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. DeepState reports successful drone strikes on RUF positions and BMPs in Kamyanske. Воин DV video shows RUF forces storming trenches and using FPV drones. Colonelcassad shows a video of "Hunters for dronovodov" indicating RUF counter-UAS capabilities. Операция Z shares Russian propaganda footage. Rybar shares video of nighttime military operations. Colonelcassad's video of a civilian Lada converted into a military buggy. Colonelcassad reports destruction of a Ukrainian Humvee and Novator armored vehicle. Воин DV reports drone operators destroying a Ukrainian tank. Colonelcassad confirms another military vehicle destroyed by precision munition. TASS reports that artillery crews of the "Center" group destroyed a UAF forward command post. Colonelcassad shares a video "Going to Pokrovsk: Results of the FPV group Center's work." New RUF video shows drone-operated mortar system firing on targets. TASS reports that Ivanovske paratroopers destroyed a UAF observation post. Colonelcassad shares a photo of a Russian soldier. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 provides an immediate assessment message. Операция Z claims "Valiant" forces breaking through towards Myrnohrad and Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. TASS reports RUF has taken control of an AFU supply route in Krasnoarmiisk. Zvиздец Мангусту reports elements of RUF's 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 29th Combined Arms Army, have deeply penetrated the flank. Colonelcassad's video of Alexander Ershov, 80th Tank Regiment, details tactical maneuvers. WarGonzo displays RUF tactical advances on the Zaporizhzhia map. Воин DV shares video showing a drone targeting and successfully striking an enemy ATV. Colonelcassad shares video of the 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion destroying UAF vehicles. Воин DV FPV operators from the 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade continue to destroy enemy equipment. Два майора shares drone footage of military activity. Два майора shares drone footage of individuals moving across terrain. Two Majors share video of damaged buildings and debris. Rybar provides a morning summary. Народная милиция ДНР shares video of destroyed UAF vehicle and armored vehicles. Kotsnews shares photo report on battles in Konstantinovka direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video titled "The stage of acceptance of the Russian occupier." WarGonzo shares a video titled "Buffer Zone: Border Security is Forged in Artillery Fire." TASS reports Russian forces liberated Razin in DPR and Melove in Kharkiv Oblast. Два майора reports Russian MoD summary. MoD Russia reports Razino liberated. Народная милиция ДНР reports an FPV drone of the 132nd Brigade destroyed a Ukrainian mortar position. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares photo report on battles in Konstantinovka direction. Colonelcassad reports Russian forces continue to advance in the Donetsk direction. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares thermal footage of a convoy and explosion. Два майора video shows military personnel with a truck-mounted MLRS. Воин DV shares aerial video of FAB strikes on Maliivka. Colonelcassad video shows a BTR-4 being targeted. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows a BM-21 Grad MLRS firing. Narodnaya militsiya DNR confirms destruction of a UAF mortar position. WarGonzo shares video of RUF artillery operations. BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of UAF capturing 9 RUF soldiers. Операция Z reports "Fierce battles near Pokrovsk." Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition reports the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade has been "effectively decapitated." TASS shares new video of "North" Group forces in Melove. Colonelcassad shares a video on the "Liberation of Melove." Операция Z shares video and photo messages claiming the Russian flag was raised over Melove. Alex Parker Returns shares video and photo messages claiming the administration building in Melove has been liberated. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Air-Dropped Ordnance: Continued extensive use of FAB-500/1500 with UMPK glide kits. UAF Air Force reports continued launches of guided aerial bombs by RUF tactical aviation into Donetsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new launches of guided aerial bombs on Kharkiv Oblast. Colonelcassad reports "Missile strikes in Zhytomyr." Multiple sources confirm a large explosion in Zhytomyr from a probable RUF missile strike. Colonelcassad confirms an airstrike on a bridge over the Vovcha River near Iskra. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RUF tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RUF tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports renewed activity of RUF tactical aviation. РБК-Україна reports Air Force has updated information on the movement of strike drones. New message from РБК-Україна reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports RUF tactical aviation launches guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts. UAF General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Poltavka, Mayak, Kozatske. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports "In the morning, the enemy attacked Velykomykhailivka community... with a KAB." Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. TASS reports a FAB strike destroying a UAF command post. Воин DV shares aerial video of FAB strikes on Maliivka. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition shows video of the destruction of 56th Separate Mechanized Brigade ammunition depot near Kramatorsk. Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
    • UAV Operations: Highly developed and integrated UAV capabilities for ISR, FPV strikes, and deep strikes. Deployment of a remote-controlled, tracked UGV. Claimed increased production of Geranium drones. Colonelcassad video shows Ka-52 helicopter engaging and shooting down Ukrainian fixed-wing drones. Budanov (HUR) indicates that Russia has a second developer of CRPA antennas for Shaheds. Colonelcassad shares video of Russian artillerymen receiving an EW system. Воин DV shares video from the 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade showing a soldier shooting down an enemy drone. Colonelcassad reports Russian naval forces successfully destroying enemy BECs and drones. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video shows explosion and damaged building from an aerial view. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Kharkiv Oblast. Kadyrov_95 video shows Akhmat Special Forces using drones for strikes. Воин DV video shows FPV drone usage in trench assaults. Colonelcassad's "Hunters for dronovodov" video implies active counter-drone units. Два майора's video shows aerial footage with multiple explosions. Воин DV drone operators destroyed a Ukrainian tank. Colonelcassad reports on a new laser-based anti-UAV system. Николаевский Ванёк reports on the movement of 5 "mopeds" (Shahed UAVs). Colonelcassad reports Ussuriysk paratroopers' UAV operators destroyed a UAF strongpoint. Операция Z shares new videos showing alleged attacks on Lipetsk. Colonelcassad shares a video "Going to Pokrovsk: Results of the FPV group Center's work." Igor Artamonov also reports a drone strike on a building in Yelets. New RUF video shows drone-operated mortar system firing on targets. New messages from Оперативний ЗСУ confirm a 9-story building in Odesa was hit by a UAV. Igor Artamonov reports a fire caused by a drone falling on a parking lot of an enterprise in Yelets. Оперативний ЗСУ shares new video messages of drone activity over Russia. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС shares video reporting an attack on the sanctioned "Energiya" enterprise in Yelets. ASTRA shares new videos of Lipetsk night attacks. TASS reports RUF AD destroyed 69 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. Colonelcassad (RUF source) reports on "Rubicon" combat groups targeting air defense systems. Операция Z's new video shows RUF artillerymen from the south of Donetsk focused on countering enemy drones. Воин DV reports a 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operator discovered and destroyed a UAF vehicle. Два майора's video from Kherson direction shows effective counter-drone activity. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 52 drones were launched by RUF, with 40 neutralized. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports 69 enemy UAVs were destroyed by Russian AD. Воин DV shares video showing a drone targeting and successfully striking an enemy ATV. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs detected in Chernihiv, Sumy, and Donetsk oblasts. STERNENKO reports intentions to purchase more Shahed interceptors. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition shares a video of an aerial explosion over Poltava. Alex Parker Returns also reports a strike on the Poltava TCC building. Colonelcassad confirms the Poltava strike. Два майора shares videos of a "Geranium" impact on a TCC building in Poltava. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a "Geranium" impact on a TCC building in Poltava. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video confirming three Shaheds hit the Poltava TCC. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms an RUF strike on Poltava's TCC. STERNENKO reports fatalities and injuries. Colonelcassad shares videos of strikes on the Poltava TCC. Voenkor Kotenok shares video of "Geraniums" distributing "gifts." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС shares dashcam footage of the Poltava TCC strike. RBK-Ukraine reports 2 killed and 11 wounded. Operativny ZSU reports 2 killed and 11 wounded. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports 2 killed and 11 wounded. Air Force reports significant activity of various enemy UAVs in Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports drones attacked "Energiya" enterprise in Yelets. Kotsnews shares video of drone strike on Poltava TCC. Операция Z reports UAF confirmed 4 military personnel wounded. Север.Реалії reports 2 killed. TASS reports Russian MoD struck UAF ammunition depot near Kramatorsk with Geran-2 UAV. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports significant activity of enemy reconnaissance UAVs. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports significant activity of enemy reconnaissance UAVs. Alex Parker Returns shares an image with the caption "Geraniums have become the main strike force of our country." Басурин о главном shares video showing thermal camera view of precise Geranium strikes. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Turkey has joined the drone coalition. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of HUR destroying Russian drone operator positions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. ASTRA reports temporary flight restrictions at Nizhnekamsk and Izhevsk airports due to drone attacks. TASS reports an attack by UAV on one of the objects in Udmurtia. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms a UAV attack on an object in Udmurtia. Сили оборони Півдня України reports Border Guard Service successfully targeted an enemy vehicle. РБК-Україна reports Russians complaining about drone attacks in Udmurtia. Операция Z confirms explosions and shooting in Izhevsk. Два майора reports two drones attacked Udmurtia. Kotsnews reports on volunteers studying captured equipment and creating drones. Air Force reports enemy UAV approaching Kyiv from northeast. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports a single RUF UAV ("moped") flying towards Kyiv. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares video claiming RUF destroyed a UAF UAV control point in Chernihiv Oblast. Air Force reports threat of ballistic missile use from Crimea. Nikolaevsky Vanek shares new video depicting drone footage, likely a UAF drone, targeting and destroying an RLM-D 55Zh6M NEBO-M radar system. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports threat of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast. Confidence: HIGH.
    • EW: Sophisticated and widespread EW capabilities. Mash на Донбассе posts a video "Ukrainian drones often go back to their former owners." Colonelcassad's "Hunters for dronovodov" video implies active RUF counter-drone efforts. ASTRA reports internet jamming in Izhevsk prior to the attack. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video questioning "ПВО? РЭБ? Анатолий?". Colonelcassad reports on a new laser-based anti-UAV system. Полиция Хабаровского края reports МВД awards for police officers saving a civilian. Полиция Хабаровского края video shows a Russian police official discussing the first stage of a "Illegal-2025" operation. Полиция Хабаровского края shares new video messages related to police activity. TASS reports RUF AD destroyed 69 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Russian regions. Colonelcassad (RUF source) reports on "Rubicon" combat groups targeting air defense systems. Два майора's video from Kherson direction shows a thermal imaging view from a drone and sounds of small arms fire. Полиция Хабаровского края shares two videos related to a domestic scam. Moscow News posts photos of traffic police cars equipped with systems for identifying drivers without licenses. TASS reports mobile internet will be restricted in Rostov Oblast. TASS reports 3 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Samara and Belgorod Oblasts. ТАСС reports on the roof of a dormitory in Tula being restored. WarGonzo shares video of "frontline traffic lights" warning drivers about enemy drones. TASS video shows Putin arriving at a forum. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Governor) has held an operational meeting. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports conviction of a woman for correcting RUF missile and drone attacks. RBK-Ukraine shares video claiming UAF destroyed three Nebo-M key radars. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Precision Strikes: Demonstrated capability for long-range precision strikes against critical infrastructure and military targets. TASS reports Russian MoD claims striking a military-industrial complex enterprise, UAV assembly workshops, and storage sites. Colonelcassad reports on the strike on a military-industrial complex enterprise. Colonelcassad (RUF source) claims a missile strike on an industrial zone in Kramatorsk on June 28 liquidated UAF Colonel Dmytro Vorona. Підрозділ Shadow reports their UAV crew discovered an enemy artillery piece and ammunition storage, followed by friendly fire targeting and successful destruction. Colonelcassad reports "Missile strikes in Zhytomyr." New messages corroborate a strong explosion in Zhytomyr. ASTRA and STERNENKO confirm damage to Izhevsk Kupol plant. Alex Parker Returns claims the Zhytomyr strike was on a warehouse with weaponry. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms the Zhytomyr epicenter was not a gas station. ASTRA reports a SOCAR gas station was damaged. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА confirms the Zhytomyr explosion. MoD Russia UAV operators destroyed a MaxxPro and a minibus with manpower. Explosions are reported in Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast, with multiple UAF and RUF sources reporting on a potential ammunition depot strike. Colonelcassad also reports a hit on a field ammunition depot near Khartsyzk. TASS reports that artillery crews of the "Center" group destroyed a UAF forward command post. Операция Z claims the Zhytomyr explosion was at a Polish factory. STERNENKO shares video of a UAV attack on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets. RBK-Ukraine shares new footage and images of the aftermath. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition shares a video of an aerial explosion over Poltava. Alex Parker Returns also reports a strike on the Poltava TCC building. Colonelcassad confirms the Poltava strike. Два майора shares videos of a "Geranium" impact on a TCC building in Poltava. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a "Geranium" impact on a TCC building in Poltava. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video confirming three Shaheds hit the Poltava TCC. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms an RUF strike on Poltava's TCC. STERNENKO reports fatalities and injuries. Colonelcassad shares videos of strikes on the Poltava TCC. Voenkor Kotenok shares video of "Geraniums" distributing "gifts." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС shares dashcam footage of the Poltava TCC strike. RBK-Ukraine reports 2 killed and 11 wounded. Operativny ZSU reports 2 killed and 11 wounded. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports 2 killed and 11 wounded. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of SBU drones destroying Russian ammunition depots. РБК-Україна shares photos of aftermath. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports drones attacked "Energiya" enterprise in Yelets. Kotsnews shares video of drone strike on Poltava TCC. Оперативний ЗСУ reports powder factory fire in Kotovsk, Tambov Oblast, due to UAV strike. Операция Z reports UAF confirmed 4 military personnel wounded. Север.Реалії reports 2 killed. TASS reports Russian MoD struck UAF ammunition depot near Kramatorsk with Geran-2 UAV. Alex Parker Returns shares an image with the caption "Geraniums have become the main strike force of our country." Басурин о главном shares video showing thermal camera view of precise Geranium strikes. РБК-Україна shares video of strike on Poltava TCC. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports that an important object of the enemy military-industrial complex was hit. РБК-Україна reports UAF General Staff confirmed a strike on the "Energiya" plant in Lipetsk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ reports UAF General Staff confirmed a strike on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports a strike on Khalino airfield in Kursk. TASS reports a FAB strike destroying a UAF command post. ASTRA reports temporary flight restrictions at Nizhnekamsk and Izhevsk airports due to drone attacks. TASS reports an attack by UAV on one of the objects in Udmurtia. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms a UAV attack on an object in Udmurtia. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition shows video of "Geranium" drone strikes on 56th Separate Mechanized Brigade ammunition depot near Kramatorsk. Оперативний ЗСУ reports UAF successfully struck Khalino airfield in Kursk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports UAF successfully struck Khalino airfield. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Special Forces: Active Spetsnaz operations targeting UAF logistics and C2. Kotsnews reports destruction of two RUF DRGs in Gornal. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video shows Russian snipers from the 49th Army operating. РБК-Україна shares video of SFO soldiers showing a successful raid near the border. New messages from Воин DV confirm special forces operations in conjunction with motorized rifle brigades. Kadyrov_95 video shows Akhmat Special Forces 'Baty' Group conducting drone strikes. Alex Parker Returns shares video of an alleged "Wahhabist suicide bomber." Два майора shares video of OMON detaining an individual. Colonelcassad reports a conviction in the Kherson Oblast Court. TASS reports on the Crocus City Hall terrorists being under influence of drugs. Полиция Хабаровского края posts an image related to traffic police anniversary. Полиция Хабаровского края video shows a Russian police official discussing the first stage of a "Illegal-2025" operation. TASS reports the arrest of the deputy head of Roshydromet. Полиция Хабаровского края shares new video messages. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports "A wave of mass arrests swept through Russia." TASS reports a fire at a Tambov Oblast enterprise killed 3. TASS reports a patient attacked medical staff. The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine reports the completion of a pre-trial investigation into tax evasion. TASS reports the FSB detained a 23-year-old Russian woman in St. Petersburg. ASTRA also confirms this detention. TASS reports the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation is demanding the nationalization of the "Yuzhuralzoloto" company. ASTRA reports three killed and three injured in a fire at an enterprise in Tambov Oblast. Офіс Генерального прокурора posts photo messages on prosecutors exposing a former married couple working for the FSB RF. STERNENKO reports SBU detained a Ukrainian Air Force major who was an FSB "mole." Colonelcassad shares a video of a child being apprehended. TASS reports a man arrested for attacking polyclinic staff. BТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on Putin sending a 64-year-old serial killer to the front from jail. TASS reports property of head of construction supervision department of MoD Kozhevnikov has been arrested. ASTRA shares a photo message that the Prosecutor General's Office is demanding nationalization of a gold company. Военкор Котенок reports on the son of an Azerbaijani diaspora figure. Colonelcassad reports on military crimes in Gaza. Colonelcassad reports FSB detained a woman in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on a detained girl in St. Petersburg. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports liquidation of the "Krasnobalivski" criminal group. Оперативний ЗСУ reports National Police liquidated the "Krasnobalivski" criminal organization. ASTRA reports a woman had her arm broken by police in Ryazan. ASTRA reports an oncologist was detained for "justifying terrorism." Sever.Reali reports police broke teacher's arm in Ryazan. Kotsnews shares photo messages regarding the "Heroes of Potok." Север.Реалии reports on a Moscow district head allegedly paying over a million rubles. Confidence: HIGH.
    • New Weapon Systems: Stated intent to deploy "Oreshnik" (new weapon system) in Belarus by year-end. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Mine Clearance: Demonstrated capability to use robotic complexes (Uran-6) for mine clearance in border areas. Colonelcassad reports continued mine clearance in Sudzha border area. Confidence: HIGH.
    • New Armored Vehicle Deliveries: "High-Precision Systems" (Rostec subsidiary) has shipped a new batch of BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles to the MoD. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shows a video confirming these deliveries. Kotsnews shares a video "A new batch of BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles went to the troops." Colonelcassad shares video of new BMP-3 deliveries from Rostec. Confidence: HIGH.
    • New Capability (African Corps Recruitment): Recruitment for the "African Corps" signals RUF's intent to diversify its combat personnel. Kotsnews shares two videos of recruitment for the African Corps. Операция Z shares graphic video of RUF African Corps and Mali army fighting "Al-Qaeda." Confidence: HIGH.
    • New Capability (Publicly Funded Grad MLRS): The appeal for funds to acquire a BM-21 Grad MLRS suggests a capability gap being addressed through public funding. Confidence: HIGH.
    • ASTRA reports Russia attacked Ukraine with 114 drones and 4 S-300 missiles overnight. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Оперативний ЗСУ reports North Korea will send up to 30,000 additional troops. Операция Z amplifies this report from CNN. Воин DV posts about a DPRK military academy delegation visiting Russia. Два майора reports Western experts suggest 20,000 troops is a more realistic figure for DPRK deployment. Confidence: HIGH.
    • New Capability (Captured Western Equipment): Claims of capturing a Leopard 2A6 tank, if verified, could indicate RUF's intent to exploit Western equipment for intelligence purposes or propaganda. MoD Russia shows a daily news update including claims of destroying a Ukrainian Humvee and a Leopard 2A6 tank. Confidence: MEDIUM.
    • TASS reports Medvev claims over 210,000 contract soldiers joined Russian Armed Forces in first half of 2025. Kotsnews reports Medvedev's statement. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Colonelcassad reports Russian Navy's success in destroying several enemy BEC (unmanned surface vessels) in the Black Sea and shooting down a batch of Ukrainian drones over Crimea. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Internal Security Operations: Mash na Donbashe shares a video showing a significant cache of weapons found by police. TASS reports detonation of powder in Chelyabinsk. ASTRA reports arrests of Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg and schoolchildren held in Grozny. Alex Parker Returns shares video of an alleged "Wahhabist suicide bomber." Два майора shares video of OMON detaining an individual. Colonelcassad reports a conviction in the Kherson Oblast Court. TASS reports on the preparation of Crocus City Hall terrorists in Turkey and Afghanistan. Полиция Хабаровского края posts an image related to traffic police anniversary. Полиция Хабаровского края video shows a Russian police official discussing the first stage of a "Illegal-2025" operation. TASS reports the arrest of the deputy head of Roshydromet. Полиция Хабаровского края shares new video messages. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports "A wave of mass arrests swept through Russia." TASS reports a fire at a Tambov Oblast enterprise killed 3. TASS reports a patient attacked medical staff. The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine reports the completion of a pre-trial investigation into tax evasion. TASS reports the FSB detained a 23-year-old Russian woman in St. Petersburg. ASTRA also confirms this detention. TASS reports the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation is demanding the nationalization of the "Yuzhuralzoloto" company. ASTRA reports three killed and three injured in a fire at an enterprise in Tambov Oblast. Офіс Генерального прокурора posts photo messages on prosecutors exposing a former married couple working for the FSB RF. STERNENKO reports SBU detained a Ukrainian Air Force major who was an FSB "mole." Colonelcassad shares a video of a child being apprehended. TASS reports a man arrested for attacking polyclinic staff. BТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on Putin sending a 64-year-old serial killer to the front from jail. TASS reports property of head of construction supervision department of MoD Kozhevnikov has been arrested. ASTRA shares a photo message that the Prosecutor General's Office is demanding nationalization of a gold company. Военкор Котенок reports on the son of an Azerbaijani diaspora figure. Colonelcassad reports on military crimes in Gaza. Colonelcassad reports FSB detained a woman in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on a detained girl in St. Petersburg. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports liquidation of the "Krasnobalivski" criminal group. Оперативний ЗСУ reports National Police liquidated the "Krasnobalivski" criminal organization. ASTRA reports a woman had her arm broken by police in Ryazan. ASTRA reports an oncologist was detained for "justifying terrorism." Sever.Reali reports police broke teacher's arm in Ryazan. Confidence: HIGH.
  • Intentions:

    • Territorial Control: Primary intention remains the complete capture of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, with a focus on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar. New claims of deep penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dachne, Petrovskoye, Yalta, Zirka-Poddubnoe) indicate an intent to broaden the offensive beyond the traditional Donbas axes. TASS reports MoD liberated Razin in DPR and Melove in Kharkiv Oblast. Kotsnews reports Russian army liberated Melove and Razino. TASS shares new video of "North" Group forces in Melove. Colonelcassad shares a video on the "Liberation of Melove." Операция Z shares video and photo messages claiming the Russian flag was raised over Melove. Alex Parker Returns shares video and photo messages claiming the administration building in Melove has been liberated. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Strategic Depth: Establishment of "buffer zones" in border regions (Sumy, Kharkiv). Confidence: HIGH.
    • Infrastructure Degradation: Continued degradation of Ukraine's military-industrial complex, energy infrastructure, and logistics. Colonelcassad reports RUF strikes on enterprise of the military-industrial complex, UAV assembly workshops, storage sites, ammunition and military-technical property depots, and temporary deployment points. ASTRA confirming the damage to Izhevsk's Kupol plant indicates RUF's intent to target military-industrial targets. The Zhytomyr strike, whether on a gas station or a warehouse/ammunition depot, reinforces the intent to strike logistics/infrastructure targets. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition shares a video of an aerial explosion over Poltava. Alex Parker Returns also reports a strike on the Poltava TCC building. Colonelcassad confirms the Poltava strike. Два майора shares videos of a "Geranium" impact on a TCC building in Poltava. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a "Geranium" impact on a TCC building in Poltava. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video confirming three Shaheds hit the Poltava TCC. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms an RUF strike on Poltava's TCC. STERNENKO reports fatalities and injuries. Colonelcassad shares videos of strikes on the Poltava TCC. Voenkor Kotenok shares video of "Geraniums" distributing "gifts." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС shares dashcam footage of the Poltava TCC strike. RBK-Ukraine reports 2 killed and 11 wounded. Operativny ZSU reports 2 killed and 11 wounded. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports 2 killed and 11 wounded. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of SBU drones destroying Russian ammunition depots. РБК-Україна shares photos of aftermath. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports drones attacked "Energiya" enterprise in Yelets. Kotsnews shares video of drone strike on Poltava TCC. Оперативний ЗСУ reports powder factory fire in Kotovsk, Tambov Oblast, due to UAV strike. Операция Z reports UAF confirmed 4 military personnel wounded. Север.Реалії reports 2 killed. TASS reports Russian MoD struck UAF ammunition depot near Kramatorsk with Geran-2 UAV. Alex Parker Returns shares an image with the caption "Geraniums have become the main strike force of our country." Басурин о главном shares video showing thermal camera view of precise Geranium strikes. РБК-Україна shares video of strike on Poltava TCC. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports that an important object of the enemy military-industrial complex was hit. РБК-Україна reports UAF General Staff confirmed a strike on the "Energiya" plant in Lipetsk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ reports UAF General Staff confirmed a strike on the "Energiya" plant in Yelets. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno reports a strike on Khalino airfield in Kursk. TASS reports a FAB strike destroying a UAF command post. ASTRA reports temporary flight restrictions at Nizhnekamsk and Izhevsk airports due to drone attacks. TASS reports an attack by UAV on one of the objects in Udmurtia. Оперативний ЗСУ confirms a UAV attack on an object in Udmurtia. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition shows video of "Geranium" drone strikes on 56th Separate Mechanized Brigade ammunition depot near Kramatorsk. Оперативний ЗСУ reports UAF successfully struck Khalino airfield in Kursk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports UAF successfully struck Khalino airfield. Confidence: HIGH.
    • Information Dominance: Maintain and escalate information warfare to shape narratives, demoralize UAF, and influence international opinion. TASS reports the Washington Post stating Ukrainian officials were "caught off guard" by the US aid suspension. ASTRA's report on alleged torture of a Ukrainian serviceman is a clear PSYOP. Операция Z's video claiming a Slovak ex-Minister of Defense "fled to Canada" is an information operation. TASS reports Putin supports dialogue. Операция Z highlights Kyiv summoning a US diplomat. WarGonzo reports on a monument to "Motorola." TASS reports Maria Zakharova's statement that the prospect of creating a NATO-like military organization based on the EU would be a threat to Russia. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition discusses the US suspension of arms supplies. Kotsnews is promoting a boycott of Azerbaijani products. Alex Parker Returns reports Peskov stating that Moscow sees Kyiv attempting to imbalance Russia-Azerbaijan relations. Kadyrov_95 video is propaganda about alleged Ukrainian prisoner of war. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message implying Medvedev's silence. Операция Z reports The Washington Post analysis of Russian activation of offensive. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message claiming US is leaving the war. Alex Parker Returns shares photo messages claiming Zelensky stripped citizenship from Metropolitan Onufriy. Colonelcassad also shares a similar sentiment. Операция Z reports The New York Times as stating that the cessation of US arms supplies is a clear signal. Kotsnews reports "Media: Ukraine will run out of American weapons by September." TASS reports "Suspension of US arms supplies to Kyiv indicates Washington's withdrawal from the conflict, NYT writes." Операция Z reports "Russian ambassador to Baku summoned to Azerbaijani MFA." TASS reports Maria Zakharova's briefing statements. ASTRA reports "Zelensky stripped Ukrainian citizenship from the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate Onufriy." НгП раZVедка amplifies the NYT report. Colonelcassad amplifies complaints from Russians in Azerbaijan. Военкор Котенок reports "Russians in Azerbaijan... complain about violence." Операция Z shares a photo message containing a highly derogatory reference to an alleged speechwriter for Zelensky. TASS reports that a Ukrainian blogger, Vlad Bumaga, was added to the Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" list. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts "How do the expressions 'this is war' and 'as a result of a cowardly blow' logically combine???". Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts "Russians, come on, stop whining, you don't have a fleet anyway, why do you need a commander?". TASS posts new videos of a Russian singer (Shaman) filming a music video. Alex Parker Returns reports a quote from Marianna Bezuhla. Colonelcassad reports NATO Secretary General supported the suspension of US arms supplies. Rybar's "Reputation over Peace" message likely pertains to this information operation. TASS reports the CIA acknowledging its 2016 election interference assessment may have been politically motivated. Colonelcassad reports the CIA officially disavowed accusations against Russia. Rybar shares a video on "Price of normalization of relations." Two majors share an image of a "Crisis of Russia and Azerbaijan." ASTRA reports Vlad Bumaga added to "Myrotvorets." Операция Z pushes the narrative of a "genocide" by OUN and UPA against Poles. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE ФІГХТС (citing NYT) reports absence of new US sanctions allowed Russia to resume supply of military goods. TASS reports that the Pentagon states the US had warned Ukraine in advance about the suspension of certain weapons supplies. TASS reports Orban believes Zelensky still has time to turn towards peace. Alex Parker Returns posts a video mocking Zelensky. Colonelcassad shares a photo message about the flow chart "Why the war is not ending? Because they profit from it." TASS reports SBU adding Russian artists and politicians to its розыск database. TASS reports American guards in Gaza opening fire on Palestinians. Операция Z shares new videos showing alleged attacks on Lipetsk. ASTRA shares a video of Lipetsk residents reporting numerous explosions. Igor Artamonov, Lipetsk Oblast Governor, reported that drone debris fell on a private residential building, resulting in one fatality and two injuries. TASS reports the Kiev leadership expects European countries to buy weapons for Ukraine from the US. Rybar reports on the Middle East crisis. TASS reports Qatar's offer to mediate. Два майора's morning summary indicates continued centralized control. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides new morning summaries. Басурин о главном shares a historical "Pravda" newspaper from 1941. Басурин о главном video states "For the US and the West, every meter liberated by the Russian army is painful." Басурин о главном also states the West will continue to build "Anti-Russia." Операция Z reports that Budanov has effectively admitted to the loss of Ukrainian territories. ASTRA shares a political cartoon from Hungary. Operational Z reports a Pentagon spokesperson discussing the US decision. The Economist reports Ukraine faces "reckoning." Rybar shares a photo message discussing how the British government is looking for money. Alex Parker Returns shares a video claiming that the Head of Tatarstan materialized in Turkey. TASS reports that Maria Zakharova stated that relations between Russia and Azerbaijan are strategic. Kotsnews reports on "Trump's speaking silence and tanker explosions." РБК-Україна reports the US State Department assures that not all arms supplies to Ukraine have been stopped. Alex Parker Returns publishes photos and videos. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a political cartoon regarding Ursula von der Leyen's confidence vote. Филолог в засаде provides a warning to Russian citizens against traveling to countries. РБК-Україна reports that the US has changed priorities in arms supplies. Rybar shares a photo message on British threats of sanctions against Kazakhstan. RBK-Ukraine shares image of Zelensky and Trump possibly having a phone call. Operativny ZSU reports Ukraine wants to get permission to purchase US weapons at Europe's expense. WarGonzo reports on information regarding cessation of arms supplies. Alex Parker Returns shares photo messages with caption "I will be your Russia Iqbal" implying narrative on Azerbaijan. Kotsnews states "I don't understand the attacks on Zakharova." Военкор Котенок shares photo message titled "Repressions against the Azerbaijani diaspora are gaining momentum." Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares political humor message. Операция Z shares photo message about Ursula von der Leyen being threatened. STERNENKO shares photo message on Politico reporting Pentagon decision to suspend arms supply to Ukraine was unexpected. TASS reports Diogo Jota, football player, died. РБК-Україна reports average salary in Ukraine to reach 40,000 UAH. Рыбарь shares video message of a Ukrainian POW being interviewed. ТАСС reports Peskov comments on next round of negotiations. Рыбарь reports on possibility of ceasefire in Gaza. Colonelcassad reports FSB detained a woman in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. RBK-Ukraine reports Zelensky arrived in Denmark. TASS reports protest by supporters of Gutsul. Alex Parker Returns shares video of an individual climbing a fence. Janus Putkonen shares video from a Russian special operation exhibition. TASS reports Ingushetia Interior Ministry denies searches. Alex Parker Returns shares video that a terrorist attack in Luhansk occurred near a museum opening an exhibition. Два майора suggests retraining psychologists for SVO combatants. Alex Parker Returns shares video from a Wagner Group fighter. Alex Parker Returns posts statement that strikes on TCC are Russia's attempt to disrupt mobilization. Alex Parker Returns shares an image with the caption "Geraniums have become the main strike force of our country." STERNENKO reports Trump and Zelensky will discuss suspension of arms supplies during a phone call on Friday. Операция Z shares that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban called on Zelensky to choose the path of peace. ТАСС reports that the Russian Embassy in Tel Aviv reported no obstacles for Russians to visit Israel. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Sweden will provide Ukraine with $130 million in military aid. РБК-Україна shares an analytical article on how Europe is responding to Trump's challenge. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message implying US and Ukraine are working to organize a phone call. Север.Реалии reports the EU plans sanctions against judges and security forces. РБК-Україна reports an Iskander missile hit the Odesa sea port. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports RUF attacked port infrastructure. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video on conflict between China and Japan over territory. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the number of injured from the Iskander strike on Odesa port has risen to 6. Zelenskiy / Official shares video regarding agreement on Ukrainian-American cooperation. Старше Эдды comments on Maria Zakharova's statement. Басурин о главном shares a political cartoon on "Bridge to Sicily." TASS reports the defense of Gutsul presented evidence. Два майора reports a deputy in Yugra was stripped of salary. STERNENKO reports Sweden is allocating $130M in aid. TASS reports the Russian Prosecutor General's Office and Azerbaijani counterparts are in regular contact. Север.Реалии reports residents of Salekhard laid flowers at monuments. НгП раZVедка posts a strongly negative opinion on a Belarusian political figure. TASS reports Putin will have a phone call with Trump today. Операция Z confirms Putin-Trump call. TASS reports former Luhansk mayor Manolis Pilavov was wanted. TASS reports Moldovan leader Gutsul accused the judge. TASS reports 5,000 people evacuated in Crete. РБК-Україна reports Trump announced a call with Putin in 20 minutes. Операция Z shares graphic video of RUF African Corps and Mali army fighting "Al-Qaeda." Alex Parker Returns shares video from Putin's public forum. Janus Putkonen reports "Operation Flow" where 600 Russian soldiers crawled 15 km. Zelenskiy / Official states "LIVE. Communication with media representatives together with Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen, President of the European Council António Costa and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen." РБК-Україна reports "Denmark expressed support for Ukraine's accession to the European Union." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video on Ukraine and American company Swift Beat signing a memorandum. РБК-Україна reports "We expect continued American support, because there are certain positions that Europe cannot provide, - Zelenskyy." РБК-Україна shares photo of Zelenskyy and Trump with text "Ukraine needs a meeting with Trump and Putin to achieve peace." Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Zelensky is asking Trump for attention. STERNENKO reports that if there are gaps in US support, Denmark will make maximum efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Putin and Trump are currently in a phone conversation. (031548Z JUL 25) Colonelcassad shares video with offensive political commentary about Zelensky's public statements. (031611Z JUL 25) TASS reports Putin in conversation with Trump noted Russia's readiness to continue negotiation process with Ukraine. (031615Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports Trump in conversation with Putin again raised the question of the earliest completion of military actions in Ukraine. (031616Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports conversation between Putin and Trump was businesslike and specific. (031616Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports negotiations in Istanbul will remain bilateral between Russia and Ukraine. (031616Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports specific dates for third round of talks were not discussed. (031617Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports topic of cessation of US arms supplies to Ukraine was not discussed. (031617Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports Putin and Trump agreed to continue communication. (031617Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports Putin and Trump discussed situation around Iran and in Middle East. (031618Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports any conversation between Putin and Trump can be agreed within a day. (031618Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports last to hang up were translators. (031619Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports Putin congratulated Trump on 4th of July. (031619Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports Putin told Trump that Russia will not deviate from its goals to eliminate causes of conflict in Ukraine. (031620Z JUL 25) ТАСС reports Putin and Trump did not discuss possibility of meeting today, but "this idea is hanging in the air." (031621Z JUL 25) «Зона СВО» publishes a photo message quoting Apti Alaudinov about the "Akhmat" Special Forces being an international unit, claiming 50% Russians, 25% Chechens, and 25% other nationalities including Japanese, Chinese, and Koreans. This is an overt propaganda message aimed at showcasing the unit's diversity and recruiting international personnel for the war effort. (031622Z JUL 25) Confidence: HIGH (on most reports; LOW for unverified ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZ claim).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

  • Defensive Posture: UAF maintains a primarily defensive posture, successfully repelling numerous RUF assaults across multiple axes, particularly in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Sumy Oblasts. UAF General Staff confirms strong defensive operations in Pokrovsk (repelling 41 assaults), Toretsk, and Lyman directions. Tactical fighting withdrawals are being conducted in Chasiv Yar to more defensible positions.
  • Tactical Adaptation: Demonstrated ability to adapt to RUF tactics, including:
    • Effective use of drones for reconnaissance, BDA, and precision strikes against RUF personnel, vehicles, C2 nodes, and artillery (UAF drone footage shows RUF casualties near Pokrovsk, strikes in Rozdolivka/Chasiv Yar, destruction of BM-21 Grad, destruction of enemy artillery/ammunition storage, destruction of RUF drone operators in Zaporizhzhia, targeting of RLM-D 55Zh6M NEBO-M radar system).
    • Successful Special Operations Forces (SFO) raids near the border (Kharkiv Oblast), including prisoner capture.
    • Counter-propaganda efforts leveraging captured RUF POWs.
    • Decentralized air defense efforts supplementing traditional systems (e.g., "Shahed Cutter" donations).
    • Successful targeting of high-value targets (HVT), including the confirmed liquidation of RUF 8th Combined Arms Army acting commander, Lieutenant Colonel Ruslan Goryachkin.
    • Demonstrated capability to strike deep into Russian territory against military-industrial targets (Izhevsk Kupol plant, Energiya plant in Yelets, Khalino airfield in Kursk).
  • Personnel & Training: Syrskyi states general training will be increased. UAF Air Force pilots were killed repelling a massed RUF attack on Kyiv, indicating continued high operational tempo and risk. Farewell ceremonies for fallen officers show commitment. Ukraine is preparing new agreements with Denmark and other partners for joint weapons production, including interceptor drones, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance capabilities.
  • Resource Requirements & Constraints: Critical air defense deficit warned by UAV manufacturer founder, making Kyiv potentially "most vulnerable." KVA complains about lack of modular shelters in Kyiv. This highlights a critical need for AD systems and protective infrastructure.
  • Logistics & Sustainment: Ukrainian military administration continues to function and support troops and civilians (housing for defenders' families, educational projects, tax official awards).
  • Morale: High morale demonstrated by continued defensive operations, successful tactical actions, and efforts to support military families. UAF soldier interviews discussing combat and prisoner capture indicate resilience. Celebration of Army Aviation and Anti-Aircraft Missile Forces Day further boosts morale. Confidence: HIGH.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

  • Successes:
    • Repelled 41 RUF assaults in Pokrovsk direction in 24 hours. (Donetsk)
    • Successful tactical fighting withdrawal in Chasiv Yar to prepared positions. (Donetsk)
    • Successful drone strikes causing high RUF casualties, destroying equipment (BMPs, BM-21 Grad), and targeting fortified positions (Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia).
    • Confirmed liquidation of RUF 8th Combined Arms Army acting commander, Lt. Col. Ruslan Goryachkin. (Donetsk)
    • Successful counter-DRG/SFO raid near the Kharkiv border, including prisoner capture. (Kharkiv)
    • Confirmed SBU exposure of FSB agents preparing attacks in Cherkasy.
    • Successful deep strikes on military-industrial targets within Russia (Izhevsk 'Kupol' plant, Energiya plant in Yelets, Khalino airfield).
    • Successful interception and downing of a high percentage of RUF Shahed UAVs (40 of 52).
    • Confirmed liquidation of former "mayor" of occupied Luhansk, Manolis Pilavov, via IED. (Luhansk)
    • UAF capture of 9 RUF soldiers from a failed offensive into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
    • Destruction of three Nebo-M key radars.
  • Setbacks:
    • RUF penetration into the Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar, forcing UAF tactical withdrawal. (Donetsk)
    • Continued high number of RUF air attacks on Kharkiv. (Kharkiv)
    • Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from RUF strikes across multiple oblasts (Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Lviv).
    • Heavy officer losses in 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade (Commander Zakharevych, Deputy Commander Romanyuk, Chief of Staff Mirzayev) due to missile strike in Huliaipole. (Dnipropetrovsk)
    • Unverified but persistent RUF claims of territorial gains, including entry into Dachne (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast).
    • Direct hit on a TCC building in Poltava, causing military and civilian casualties. Confidence: HIGH.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

  • Critical Air Defense Deficit: A prominent Ukrainian UAV manufacturer founder warned about a critical air defense deficit, making Kyiv potentially "most vulnerable and dangerous." This points to an urgent need for more advanced air defense systems and interceptor drones.
  • Shelter Shortages: Kyiv City Military Administration complains about the lack of modular shelters despite 3.5 years of war, indicating a shortfall in protective infrastructure for civilians and potentially military personnel in urban areas.
  • Ammunition & Equipment (IMPLIED): While not explicitly stated as a constraint, the consistent focus on foreign military aid, joint production, and the US arms suspension suggests an ongoing need for ammunition and equipment, particularly advanced systems that Europe cannot fully provide.
  • Personnel Attrition: UAF video featuring Ukrainian soldiers discussing high attrition rates, coupled with the documented high number of RUF assaults, indicates that UAF personnel are under significant pressure and sustaining casualties, necessitating continued mobilization and training efforts.
  • Foreign Military Aid Dependency: Zelenskyy's statements clarifying details of US defense support and preparing new agreements for joint weapons production, including interceptor drones, highlight a continued reliance on international partners for critical capabilities. The reported US suspension of certain weapons supplies is a significant constraint. Confidence: HIGH (on stated deficits and dependencies; MEDIUM on implied constraints based on reported activities).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

  • RUF Narratives:
    • Ukrainian Losses & Demoralization: RUF consistently reports high UAF casualties (e.g., over 1,235 personnel lost in 24 hours, 265,000 in H1 2025), claiming UAF is "drowning in blood" due to reckless tactics. Propaganda videos featuring alleged UAF POWs (Vladislav Chernov) claiming forced mobilization and lack of training, aiming to demoralize UAF and undermine recruitment.
    • Western Abandonment: RUF is heavily amplifying reports (e.g., Washington Post, NYT, Politico) about US arms supply suspension, framing it as Washington's "withdrawal" from the conflict and a "clear signal" that the US is abandoning Ukraine, causing "panic" in Kyiv. This aims to sow discord between Ukraine and its allies and demoralize Ukrainian forces.
    • Russian Successes & Liberation: Continuous reporting of "liberated" territories (Razino, Melove) with flag-raising ceremonies and "successful" strikes on UAF HVT and infrastructure (Kupol plant, TCCs, command posts). Glorification of Russian military personnel (Heroes of Russia, Veterans Day, "Steel Character!").
    • Ukrainian Weakness & Instability: Allegations of Ukrainian "terrorist attacks" (Luhansk IED), internal corruption (Chernyshov bail), and "military dictator" narrative against Zelenskyy (stripping Metropolitan Onufriy's citizenship, mocking his metro use). Attempts to portray UAF as disorganized (e.g., forced conscription even from funerals).
    • Justification for War: Historical revisionism (Pravda 1941 newspaper) and claims of a long-term struggle against "Anti-Russia" constructed by the West.
    • Discrediting Foreign Support: Information operations like the alleged Slovak ex-Minister of Defense "fleeing" or claiming Ukrainian citizens are involved in criminal gangs in Poland.
    • Internal Russian Unity/Resilience: Propaganda showcasing public support (aid collections), military training, and celebration of service members to maintain domestic backing for the conflict. Reports on recruitment numbers (210,000 contract soldiers).
  • UAF Narratives:
    • Resilience & Defensive Success: Emphasizing repelled assaults, tactical withdrawals to prepared positions, and successful defensive operations across various fronts. Highlighting successful AD operations against RUF drones and missiles.
    • Effective Counter-Offensives/Strikes: Reporting on successful deep strikes into Russian territory (Izhevsk, Energiya plant, Khalino airfield), liquidation of RUF HVTs (Goryachkin, Pilavov, Gudkov), and destruction of RUF equipment (Nebo-M radars).
    • War Crimes & Civilian Impact: Documenting civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure from RUF attacks (Kherson hospital shelling, Odesa residential building, Poltava TCC with civilian casualties, Zhytomyr). Highlighting RUF indiscriminate tactics (mine detonation by own soldier).
    • International Support: Zelenskyy's engagements with international partners (Denmark, EU leaders) and discussions about continued US support and joint weapons production (Swift Beat memorandum) aim to counter the narrative of Western abandonment.
    • Transparency & Accountability: UAF General Staff provides regular operational updates. SBU reports on exposed FSB agents and criminal groups.
    • Domestic Support & Normalcy: Local authorities reporting on housing for veterans' families, educational projects, public transport usage, and demining efforts demonstrate continued civilian administration and resilience.
  • Key Information Fights:
    • Dnipropetrovsk Incursion: Direct contradiction between RUF claims of "liberating" Dachne and broader penetration, versus UAF General Staff denial of any sustained RUF presence.
    • US Aid Suspension: RUF heavily framing it as an abandonment, while UAF and US statements seek to clarify its nature and continuity of support.
    • HVT Liquidations: RUF acknowledging and amplifying UAF's HVT targeting successes (Goryachkin, Gudkov). Confidence: HIGH.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

  • Ukrainian Public Sentiment:
    • Resilience and Determination: Despite ongoing attacks and casualties, public and official messaging emphasizes continued resistance, rebuilding efforts (underground schools, housing for veterans), and civilian administrative functions.
    • Concern over Aid & Security: Kyiv officials express concerns about air defense deficits and lack of shelters, reflecting public anxieties.
    • Mobilization Concerns (Implied): RUF propaganda attempts to exploit potential public dissatisfaction with mobilization practices, but there is no direct UAF public sentiment data confirming this.
  • Russian Public Sentiment (Inferred):
    • Support for the "SVO": State-controlled media and pro-RUF milbloggers promote narratives of success and heroic actions to maintain public support. Celebrations of veterans and new Hero of Russia titles serve this purpose.
    • Economic Strain: Reports of sharp increases in wage arrears suggest potential economic hardship that could affect public sentiment, though direct impact on war support is not yet clear.
    • Domestic Security Concerns: UAF deep strikes into Russian territory (Izhevsk, Lipetsk, Tambov, Udmurtia) resulting in civilian casualties and airport disruptions, along with internal security incidents (Moscow car explosion, St. Petersburg detention of alleged saboteur), likely generate public concern and pressure on authorities. The cancellation of the St. Petersburg Naval Parade due to security reasons will be noted by the public.
    • Internal Dissension (Limited): ASTRA reports on anti-war activists being released, and the alleged complaining RUF soldier, indicate limited internal dissent or morale issues, but these appear contained.
  • International Relations:
    • Russia-Azerbaijan Diplomatic Spat: Ongoing arrests and counter-accusations signal significant diplomatic tension, with Russia attempting to control the narrative of "unfriendly steps" by Azerbaijan.
    • Ukraine-Western Allies: US arms suspension creates perceived friction, which RUF exploits. However, Denmark's strong support for Ukraine's EU accession and commitment to fill aid gaps indicates continued solidarity. The Trump-Putin call and its contents will be closely scrutinized for broader implications. Confidence: HIGH (for both Ukrainian and Russian internal narratives; MEDIUM for actual public sentiment due to limited open-source data).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

  • US Support (Ambiguous/Uncertain): US suspension of certain arms supplies has caused concern. Zelenskyy clarifies details and prepares for joint drone production with a US company (Swift Beat). The phone call between Putin and Trump is a critical diplomatic event. TASS reports that the topic of cessation of US arms supplies was not discussed by Putin and Trump, directly contradicting wider media speculation. TASS reports US warned Ukraine about the suspension. Zelensky reiterates reliance on US support for specific items.
  • European Support (Consistent): Denmark expresses strong support for Ukraine's EU accession. Sweden provides $130M in military aid. European leaders (Danish PM, EU Council President, EC President) meet with Zelenskyy, demonstrating continued political and economic support.
  • New Military Aid & Production: Ukraine-US memorandum for drone production (including interceptors) and new agreements with Denmark and other partners for joint weapons production. Zelensky announced production of hundreds of thousands of "anti-Shahed" drones this year.
  • Diplomatic Engagements:
    • Putin-Trump Call: The approximately one-hour call between Putin and Trump is a significant development. Russian readouts state Putin expressed readiness for negotiations with Ukraine, Trump raised ending military actions, and talks were "businesslike and specific." However, specific dates for Istanbul talks were not discussed, nor was the US arms suspension. Both agreed to continue communication. This call could introduce new dynamics into peace discussions, though RUF retains clear objectives for the conflict.
    • Russia-Azerbaijan: Escalating diplomatic spat with mutual summoning of ambassadors and accusations of "unfriendly steps" by Russia. Russian complaints of physical violence against their citizens in Azerbaijan. Russia is demanding consular access to arrested Russians in Azerbaijan.
    • Moldova: Continued legal challenges surrounding Moldovan leader Gutsul, implying ongoing political instability potentially influenced by Russia.
    • DPRK-Russia Military Cooperation: Reported North Korean intent to send up to 30,000 troops to Russia and a DPRK military academy delegation visiting Russia.
  • Other:
    • CIA acknowledged its assessment of Russian interference in 2016 US elections might have been politically motivated, which RUF will exploit.
    • Lukashenka released 16 prisoners after Kellogg's visit, a potential diplomatic gesture by Belarus.
    • Germany caught Russians engaged in online propaganda, highlighting continued RUF information operations in Europe.
    • RUF launching an ammunition plant in Venezuela indicates efforts to bolster global military-industrial influence.
    • Cancellation of St. Petersburg Naval Parade due to security concerns reflects internal security challenges. Confidence: HIGH.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

  • Deepening the Donetsk Offensive: RUF will likely maintain high-intensity assaults along the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, focusing on incrementally gaining ground and securing the remaining administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast. The push in Chasiv Yar, particularly for the Kanal microdistrict, will continue with sustained force, including thermobaric systems, aiming to seize control of the western bank of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal. This will involve continued reliance on FAB glide bombs to clear defensive positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Sustained Border Area Pressure & Shaping Operations: RUF will continue to conduct probing attacks and artillery/air strikes along the Sumy and Kharkiv border regions. These operations will primarily serve to fix Ukrainian reserves, stretch UAF lines, and prevent the redeployment of forces to critical Donbas sectors. Limited tactical gains in these "buffer zones" may occur but will likely not lead to deep operational breakthroughs in the immediate future. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Escalated Precision Strikes on Infrastructure and Logistics: RUF will likely continue and possibly increase its use of long-range precision missiles and Shahed UAVs to target Ukrainian military-industrial complex sites, TCCs, logistics hubs, and energy infrastructure across Ukraine. The recent strikes on the Izhevsk Kupol plant, Energiya plant in Yelets, and the Poltava TCC indicate a continued focus on degrading Ukraine's ability to sustain military operations and mobilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Intensified Information Warfare: RUF will double down on narratives of Ukrainian weakness, Western abandonment, and Russian success, especially following the Putin-Trump call and ongoing discussions about US aid. This will include exploiting internal Ukrainian issues (e.g., mobilization challenges, political events) and foreign policy shifts to sow discord and demoralize the population. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Force Generation and Diversification: Russia will continue its efforts to generate additional forces, including recruitment of contract soldiers, and will likely integrate North Korean personnel as they arrive. The "African Corps" recruitment also suggests a long-term intent for diversified force generation, although their immediate deployment to Ukraine remains unconfirmed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

  • Coordinated Breakthrough in Dnipropetrovsk and Donbas: RUF could launch a larger-scale, synchronized mechanized offensive leveraging recently transferred Kadyrovite units in Zaporizhzhia and the purported deep penetrations into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dachne, Petrovskoye, Yalta, Zirka-Poddubnoe) to attempt a decisive breakthrough that creates a new operational axis threatening key Ukrainian rear areas or major urban centers. This would be coupled with a decisive push to completely secure Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, overwhelming UAF defenses. This would aim to create a significant strategic dilemma for UAF command regarding force allocation. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, HIGH IMPACT)
  • Major Offensive in Sumy Aimed at Deep Penetration: Instead of a mere shaping operation, RUF could commit substantial operational reserves to a full-scale offensive towards Sumy city, aiming to bypass established Ukrainian defenses and seize a significant provincial capital, forcing a major UAF redeployment from other critical fronts. This would likely be supported by heavy air and artillery cover to create a rapid advance. (LOW CONFIDENCE, HIGH IMPACT)
  • Increased Use of Non-Conventional/Hybrid Tactics: Given the diplomatic tensions with Azerbaijan and Russia's history of hybrid warfare, RUF could escalate the use of covert sabotage operations and proxies against perceived adversaries beyond the immediate conflict zone. This could include further attacks on maritime logistics (similar to alleged tanker explosions) or targeted destabilization efforts in bordering countries. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, MEDIUM IMPACT)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

  • Donetsk Offensive: RUF will sustain current offensive tempo on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar for the next 7-14 days, aiming for incremental gains. A decisive attempt to fully secure Chasiv Yar (western bank) is likely within 72 hours.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Contradiction Resolution: The conflicting intelligence regarding RUF penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (specifically Dachne) should be resolved with high confidence within 24-48 hours through intensified ISR and ground reporting. This will be a critical decision point for UAF force allocation.
  • Sumy Border Escalation: The scale and intent of RUF operations in Sumy Oblast will become clearer within 3-5 days. If significant mechanized formations are detected assembling, UAF command will face a decision point on whether to commit strategic reserves.
  • Deep Strike Reciprocity: UAF deep strikes into Russian territory will likely continue as long as RUF maintains its long-range missile and drone attacks. RUF will respond with further strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. This cycle is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

  • CRITICAL - RUF Intent in Dnipropetrovsk: Confirm the depth and permanence of RUF presence in Dachne and surrounding areas of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Determine if claimed gains (Petrovskoye, Yalta, Zirka-Poddubnoe) are verified and if a larger RUF force grouping is consolidating.
    • Collection Requirements (CR): All available ISR, especially UAV and ground patrols, targeting reported RUF penetration points. Local HUMINT.
  • CRITICAL - RUF Order of Battle and Force Strength (Sumy): Precisely identify RUF units, their strength, and equipment disposition along the Sumy border to determine the scale of a potential offensive.
    • CR: SIGINT, IMINT (high-resolution satellite), HUMINT on the ground, pattern of life analysis.
  • RUF Strategic Reserves: Monitor for the movement and deployment of RUF operational reserves that could be committed to either the Donbas or Sumy/Dnipropetrovsk axes.
    • CR: SATINT, long-range SIGINT, cross-border HUMINT.
  • Logistics Assessment: Assess the impact of UAF deep strikes on RUF military-industrial production (Kupol, Energiya) and ammunition depots (Khartsyzk, Kramatorsk).
    • CR: Post-strike BDA, IMINT, open-source monitoring of Russian internal reports on production.
  • EW Countermeasures Effectiveness: Evaluate the current effectiveness of Ukrainian EW systems against latest RUF drone variants and tactical communication jamming.
    • CR: Technical intelligence, unit reports, and analysis of drone loss rates.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

  1. IMMEDIATE - Prioritize ISR for Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy: Reallocate all available ISR assets (UAV, SIGINT, SATINT, ELINT) to establish a clear picture of RUF force dispositions and intent, particularly focusing on the contested administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the Sumy axis. Confirm or deny RUF claims of deep penetration and identify any new RUF build-ups.
  2. FIRES - Intensify Counter-Battery and Interdiction: Continue and increase counter-battery fires against identified RUF artillery and MLRS, especially TOS-1A systems. Prioritize interdiction of RUF logistics and supply routes supporting offensive operations in Donbas and any confirmed new axes. Allocate additional FPV drone assets for immediate response to RUF tactical assaults.
  3. FORCE POSTURE - Adaptive Defense in Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy: Prepare and activate layered defensive positions along the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Maintain mobile tactical reserves ready for rapid deployment to counter any confirmed RUF breakthrough attempts, but avoid premature commitment. In Sumy, strengthen border defenses, conduct active reconnaissance, and prepare for potential larger-scale assaults, but do not overcommit strategic reserves from Donbas.
  4. AIR DEFENSE - Reinforce Critical Nodes: Accelerate the deployment of any newly acquired or internally produced air defense systems, especially short-range interceptor drones, to protect key TCCs, logistics hubs, and military-industrial facilities, particularly in response to the demonstrated RUF intent to target these. Prioritize protection for Kyiv and other major population centers from Shahed attacks.
  5. C-IED and Counter-Sabotage: Implement heightened security measures and intelligence collection to counter RUF hybrid operations, including internal sabotage and IED attacks, particularly in occupied territories and against infrastructure targets.
  6. Diplomatic and Information Campaign: Coordinate with international partners to counter RUF disinformation regarding Western aid and to highlight RUF's continued aggression and targeting of civilian infrastructure. Leverage captured RUF POWs for counter-propaganda to undermine enemy morale.

END OF REPORT

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