Sitrep 2025-06-24 09:37:44

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 240937Z JUN 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

Donetsk Oblast: RUF Ministry of Defense (MoD) and RUF sources (TASS, WarGonzo, Операция Z, Военкор Котенок) claim the "liberation" of Dyleyevka (Donetsk People's Republic). This follows earlier RUF claims (Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны) of the "liberation" of Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast) within three days, with RUF 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade "Vostok" reportedly crossing the Mokri Yaly river and establishing a bridgehead. Video footage shows a Russian flag, possibly in Perebudova, and drone reconnaissance of destroyed enemy positions. UAF 63rd Brigade reports Serebryansky Forest is "full of fiber optics." (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Dyleyevka; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Perebudova, unverified by UAF; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – Video evidence of RUF presence in Perebudova; HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF source on Serebryansky Forest).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched ballistic missiles against Dnipro city. UAF and Ukrainian media (RBC-Ukraine, Ukrzaliznytsia, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO) confirm multiple impacts, resulting in casualties (at least 1 confirmed KIA, others wounded) and significant damage to civilian infrastructure. Specifically, 14 schools and kindergartens, a city hospital, a polyclinic, and private residences were damaged (RBC-Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ). A passenger train (No. 52 Odesa-Zaporizhzhia) was damaged by the blast wave, though no casualties among passengers or railway workers were reported (Ukrzaliznytsia, Оперативний ЗСУ). RUF channels (Colonelcassad) claim 4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles targeted "Yuzhmash" (Southern Machine-Building Plant). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF/Independent sources on impacts, casualties, train damage, and damage to civilian infrastructure; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on specific targets and munition type).
Sumy Oblast: UAF Air Force reports activity of RUF reconnaissance UAVs, indicating potential targeting. Means for their interception have been deployed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF Air Force).
RF Territory (Samara, Ulyanovsk): Rosaviatsiya reports temporary restrictions on air traffic at Samara and Ulyanovsk airports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RF Territory (Kursk): Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports a significant donation of drones (DJI Mavic 3 Pro, Autel FPV) and communication equipment (radios, Starlink terminals) to military personnel in Kursk Oblast, indicating ongoing support for forces operating on the border. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
RF Territory (Sheremetyevo Airport, Moscow): TASS and Alex Parker Returns report an incident where a 2-year-old child was severely injured after being thrown to the floor by a 31-year-old Belarusian man. Russian Investigative Committee has opened a criminal case. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Global - Middle East (Israel/Iran): Conflicting reports on Israel-Iran ceasefire. US President Donald Trump claims a ceasefire is in effect and urges its observance (Север.Реалии). RUF channels (Alex Parker Returns, Старше Эдды) continue to amplify the narrative of Iran's "victory" despite the ceasefire, and frame Russia's support for Iran's position. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – Conflicting reports from multiple sources; HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF IO amplification).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

No significant changes to weather or environmental factors affecting operations in Ukraine. Visuals from Dnipro show clear skies during ballistic missile impacts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF):
- Ground Forces: UAF 63rd Brigade active in Serebryansky Forest. UAF continues to engage RUF assets. UAF units are actively responding to RUF reconnaissance UAV activity in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Air Defense (AD): UAF Air Force reports active engagement with RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian officials confirm casualties and extensive damage from RUF ballistic missile strikes in Dnipro, indicating AD challenges against high-volume or complex attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Defense Industry: Ukrainian channels (Оперативний ЗСУ) report that NATO is preparing a statement on large-scale support for Ukraine concerning drones and air defense, citing the Prime Minister of the Netherlands. This aligns with Ukraine's stated intent to mass produce its Sapsan short-range ballistic missiles (previous report) and joint drone production with the UK (previous report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Information Operations (IO): Ukrainian channels (e.g., Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна) continue to provide immediate assessments and photographic evidence of RUF attacks and their consequences, highlighting civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. They also publicize international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian Forces (RUF):
- Ground Operations: RUF MoD claims "liberation" of Dyleyevka (Donetsk Oblast). RUF 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade "Vostok" claims "liberation" of Perebudova, establishing a bridgehead across Mokri Yaly river. RUF channels (Дневник Десантника) continue to promote triumphalist narratives ("WE WON!"). RUF Special Forces Unit "Espanola" claims to have thwarted Ukrainian plans for a naval landing on Crimea, accompanied by video of a burning building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Dyleyevka; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Perebudova; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on naval landing prevention, unverified).
- Artillery/Air Strikes: RUF employed ballistic missiles on Dnipro, causing significant civilian infrastructure damage and casualties. RUF channels (Colonelcassad) claim 4 Iskander-M missiles hit "Yuzhmash." RUF maintains reconnaissance UAV activity in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF reports on strikes; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on targets/munition type).
- Logistics/Equipment: RUF units in Kursk Oblast are receiving significant drone and communication equipment donations (Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition), indicating continued effort to equip border forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Information Operations (IO): RUF channels continue to disseminate claims of tactical successes (Dyleyevka, Perebudova), promote the narrative of Iranian "victory" in the ceasefire, and use domestic incidents (Sheremetyevo airport) for internal political messaging (Alex Parker Returns). They also highlight their domestic support efforts (Poddubny on drone donations). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

CRITICAL: Immediate and independent verification of RUF claims regarding capture of Dyleyevka and Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast). Assess tactical implications of RUF crossing Mokri Yaly river and establishing a bridgehead. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Conduct comprehensive BDA on ballistic missile strikes in Dnipro. Verify specific targets (Yuzhmash, Kramatorsk Airport), precise damage assessment (civilian infrastructure, train line), and munition types, especially if DPRK variants are confirmed. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA teams, IMINT, OSINT).
HIGH: Assess the significance of "fiber optics" in Serebryansky Forest. Is this new RUF command/communications infrastructure, or a defensive measure? (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).
HIGH: Monitor RUF claims of "liberation" of specific areas. Are these genuine advances or propaganda to boost morale? (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
HIGH: Assess the effectiveness of RUF reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast. What are their targeting capabilities, and are they indicative of an imminent ground offensive? (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, EWINT).
HIGH: Verify RUF claims regarding prevention of a UAF naval landing on Crimea. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
MEDIUM: Assess the impact of UAF "Sapsan" ballistic missile mass production and NATO's promised "large-scale support" for drones and AD. What are the intended rates of production, operational deployment timelines, and specific types of AD systems/drones expected? (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, TECHINT, DIPINT).
MEDIUM: Determine the cause and implications of temporary restrictions at Samara and Ulyanovsk airports. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, IMINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

Ground Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate capability for localized ground advances, particularly on the Donetsk axis, utilizing combined arms (infantry with armored support) and special forces. The claimed establishment of a bridgehead across Mokri Yaly river indicates offensive maneuver capability. Their special operations forces claim to be capable of thwarting UAF naval landings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Artillery/Air Capabilities: RUF maintains a significant ballistic missile strike capability (Iskander-M), as evidenced by the multiple launches on Dnipro. This capability is used for deep strikes against urban centers, military-industrial complexes (Yuzhmash), and civilian infrastructure. They also continue to employ reconnaissance UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Naval Capabilities: RUF maintains presence in Black Sea and claims capability to counter UAF naval asymmetric attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF maintains highly agile and adaptive IO, able to rapidly pivot and amplify narratives (e.g., Israel-Iran ceasefire denials/mockery, "victory" for Iran) while pushing its core messages of tactical success (Dyleyevka, Perebudova) and reinforcing domestic support (drone donations, internal security issues). They continue to promote triumphalist views of the conflict ("WE WON!"). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Intentions: RUF intends to:
- Sustain Offensive Pressure: Continue high-intensity ground assaults on key axes (Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and potentially Sumy/Kharkiv based on UAV activity) to achieve localized gains and attrit UAF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Degrade UAF Morale and Capabilities: Through continued terror strikes against civilian targets and potentially military infrastructure/industry using ballistic missiles. This includes targeting critical transport infrastructure like train lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Control Global Narrative & Divert Attention: Continue to use the Israel-Iran conflict, despite ceasefire claims, to project global instability and undermine diplomatic efforts, portraying itself as a key actor and amplifying narratives that benefit its strategic position. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Reinforce Domestic Support & Legitimacy: Use claims of tactical gains, internal security actions (Sheremetyevo incident), and publicize domestic support for the military to reinforce internal cohesion and project control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

RUF: Continued use of ballistic missiles (Iskander-M) for deep strikes on urban centers (Dnipro) and alleged military-industrial targets indicates a persistent strategy of terror and disruption. The claimed capture of Dyleyevka and Perebudova, with a river crossing, suggests a continued focus on expanding control in Donetsk Oblast and adapting to complex terrain. RUF continues to adapt its IO to rapidly respond to global events, leveraging them for its narrative. Increased reconnaissance UAV activity in Sumy Oblast suggests preparation for intensified operations or a new offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF: Continues to demonstrate effective AD responses to RUF UAVs and prompt BDA of missile strikes. UAF is actively engaged in securing international support for drones and AD, indicating a focus on capability enhancement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

RUF continues to possess and employ ballistic missiles (Iskander-M), indicating sustained production or external supply. RUF's ability to maintain offensive operations on multiple axes suggests adequate logistical support for ground forces, supplemented by significant domestic support (drone donations). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF's pursuit of NATO support for drones and AD and its domestic "Sapsan" production indicates a strategic shift towards enhancing long-term self-sustainment and reducing reliance on external aid for certain critical munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

RUF: Highly effective C2 over its IO, capable of immediate response and re-framing of international events to suit its narrative (e.g., Israel-Iran ceasefire denials/mockery). Tactical C2 for ground operations appears effective given claimed river crossing and bridgehead establishment. Their ability to conduct and report on Special Forces operations indicates effective tactical C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF: Effective C2 in rapid air threat warnings, particularly concerning UAVs, and in managing the aftermath of missile strikes, including BDA and casualty reporting. Effective C2 for counter-drone operations and ground defense as evidenced by successful destruction of RUF MLRS and repelling assaults. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

Ground Forces: UAF maintains a defensive posture, actively resisting RUF advances. UAF 63rd Brigade is deployed and operating in contested areas (Serebryansky Forest). UAF units are actively responding to RUF reconnaissance UAV activity in Sumy Oblast, indicating vigilance on the northern front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Air Defense: UAF AD is on high alert, actively tracking and responding to UAV and ballistic missile threats to major cities and critical infrastructure. Publicly acknowledges challenges against certain powerful strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Defense Industry: UAF is actively enhancing its domestic defense industrial base, with plans for mass production of "Sapsan" ballistic missiles and joint drone production with the UK (previous reports). Reports of NATO preparing large-scale support for drones and AD indicate continued international collaboration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

Successes:
- International Support: NATO is preparing a statement on large-scale support for Ukraine concerning drones and air defense, signaling continued and possibly increased Western assistance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Naval Strikes (Previous Report): UAF Naval Forces successfully destroyed another RUF landing craft with troops off the coast of Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Domestic Missile Production (Previous Report): Ukraine has commenced mass production of its "Sapsan" short-range ballistic missiles, a significant step in enhancing UAF's long-range strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Setbacks:
- Civilian Casualties/Infrastructure Damage: RUF ballistic missile strikes caused multiple powerful explosions in Dnipro, resulting in at least one fatality, multiple wounded, and extensive damage to 14 schools/kindergartens, a city hospital, a polyclinic, and private residences. A passenger train was also damaged. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports).
- Alleged Positional Setbacks: RUF claims "liberation" of Dyleyevka and Perebudova, establishing a bridgehead across Mokri Yaly river. This requires urgent verification as it would constitute a tactical setback. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claims).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

Continued critical need for advanced AD systems to counter ballistic missile threats and saturate attacks, especially in light of the extensive damage in Dnipro. The mass production of "Sapsan" missiles aims to address long-range strike capabilities, and NATO's anticipated support for drones and AD is crucial to augment existing capabilities and address the increasing use of UAVs by RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

Russian:
- Frontline Glorification/Claims: RUF channels (TASS, WarGonzo, Операция Z, Военкор Котенок) aggressively disseminate claims of "liberating" Dyleyevka and Perebudova, alongside videos promoting RUF military prowess and effective operations (e.g., river crossing, flag planting). The "WE WON!" narrative (Дневник Десантника) reinforces this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- International Diversion & Escalation (Israel-Iran): RUF channels (Alex Parker Returns, Старше Эдды) continue to exploit the Israel-Iran ceasefire, amplifying Iranian "victory" claims and mocking Western diplomatic efforts. This aims to maintain global instability and divert attention from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Domestic Justification/Rule of Law/Support: The reporting on the Sheremetyevo incident (Alex Parker Returns) serves to highlight internal law enforcement actions. The public display of drone and equipment donations in Kursk Oblast (Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition) aims to showcase domestic support for the military. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Anti-Ukrainian/Dehumanization: While less explicit in this update, the continued claims of "liberation" and triumphalist messaging implicitly delegitimize Ukrainian sovereignty and resistance.
Ukrainian:
- Situational Awareness/Transparency: UAF official channels (ОВА, Air Force, Укрзалізниця) continue to provide timely updates on air threats, missile strikes, and their devastating consequences, demonstrating transparency regarding RUF attacks on civilians and infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Highlighting International Support: The announcement regarding NATO's large-scale support for drones and AD (Оперативний ЗСУ) aims to boost morale and demonstrate continued global solidarity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Showcasing Domestic Defense Capabilities (Previous Report): Announcements regarding "Sapsan" mass production (previous report) continue to project strength and self-reliance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Responding to RUF Claims: UAF channels are likely to respond to RUF claims of territorial gains as verification becomes available.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

Ukrainian: Civilian population continues to face high stress due to persistent ballistic missile threats and devastating impacts in urban centers (Dnipro). The extensive damage to civilian infrastructure (schools, hospitals, residences) and the railway will further heighten public anger and resolve against RUF. However, news of NATO's large-scale support for drones and AD will provide a significant boost to morale and confidence in Ukraine's long-term defense capabilities and international backing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian: Domestic audiences are being saturated with claims of tactical successes and a controlled narrative of global conflict. Amplification of Iranian "victory" claims regarding the ceasefire reinforces the narrative of Russia being a reliable ally and an informed global actor. The public display of drone donations reinforces a narrative of national unity and support for the military. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

NATO's anticipated statement on large-scale support for Ukraine concerning drones and air defense (Оперативний ЗСУ) is a critical positive diplomatic development, signaling robust and increasing international security cooperation. This directly counters RUF's attempts to isolate Ukraine.
RUF's continued attempts to control the Israel-Iran narrative and mock Western mediation efforts are a direct threat to international stability and efforts to de-escalate global tensions, serving to divert attention and resources from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
The reported temporary restrictions at Samara and Ulyanovsk airports and the Sheremetyevo incident, while internal, may have subtle diplomatic implications or be used by RUF for internal messaging.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

Continued Attritional Ground Operations on Donetsk Axis with Persistent Ballistic Missile Strikes on Urban Centers and Critical Infrastructure, While Intensifying Northern Reconnaissance and Maintaining Global IO Diversion: RUF will likely continue high-intensity ground assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk, Dyleyevka, Perebudova), aiming to consolidate claimed gains and establish further bridgeheads across defensive lines. This will be supported by continued special forces operations in the near rear. Concurrently, RUF will conduct persistent ballistic missile strikes (Iskander-M) on major Ukrainian urban centers (Dnipro, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Chernihiv) and critical infrastructure (including transport networks like railways), aiming to degrade civilian morale, UAF force generation, and logistics capabilities. RUF will intensify reconnaissance UAV activity in Sumy Oblast and potentially Kharkiv Oblast, indicating preparation for future offensive action or heightened defensive measures. RUF will maintain its aggressive, multi-faceted IO campaign, focusing on amplifying Iranian narratives of "victory" over Israel and mocking Western diplomatic efforts regarding Israel-Iran, while subtly pushing narratives of Ukrainian weakness and desperation for a ceasefire, and framing UAF as committing "crimes" against Russian civilians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

Coordinated Strategic Ballistic Missile Saturation Campaign Paired with Breakthrough Attempt on Donetsk/Luhansk Axes and a New Offensive from Sumy Oblast, Under Cover of Heightened Global Instability Rhetoric: RUF will launch a highly coordinated, multi-wave ballistic missile saturation attack on critical UAF military and government command nodes, major urban centers, and key infrastructure across Ukraine (Kyiv, Dnipro, Poltava, Kharkiv, Chernihiv), designed to overwhelm UAF AD and cause significant disruption. Simultaneously, RUF will launch a major ground offensive aimed at achieving an operational breakthrough on the Donetsk and/or Luhansk axes, leveraging newly established bridgeheads (e.g., Perebudova) and intensified special forces infiltration. Critically, this will be complemented by a new ground offensive launched from Sumy Oblast, aimed at opening a new front, stretching UAF reserves, and possibly threatening major cities. This entire operation would be conducted under the cover of a significantly escalated RUF IO campaign emphasizing continuous global instability and the failure of Western diplomacy, leveraging the Israel-Iran conflict and other manufactured crises to maximum effect to paralyze international response and maintain diverted attention. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 240937Z JUN 25):
- RUF: Expect continued RUF ballistic missile threats/strikes in central and eastern Ukraine, potentially including follow-up strikes in Dnipro or new targets. RUF will continue to disseminate claims of tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast (Dyleyevka, Perebudova) and use its IO to maintain the Israel-Iran narrative while subtly shifting focus back to Ukraine and domestic justification narratives.
- UAF Decision Point: Maintain highest AD readiness across all threatened oblasts, prioritizing interception of ballistic missiles. Immediately verify RUF claims regarding Dyleyevka and Perebudova and assess the security of the Mokri Yaly river line. Proactively monitor RUF IO channels for any new escalatory narratives or shifts in focus.
Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
- RUF: RUF will likely maintain or increase ballistic missile strikes on Ukrainian urban centers and critically assess damage to claimed military-industrial targets. Ground pressure on the Donetsk axis will likely continue, potentially with increased special forces activity. Increased ground activity and/or shaping operations should be expected on the Sumy axis, following reconnaissance UAV activity. RUF will maintain a dual-track IO strategy, attempting to keep international attention on other crises while escalating narratives justifying its war in Ukraine.
- UAF Decision Point: Sustain intensified AD operations and enhance force protection for civilian and critical infrastructure targets, including railways. Continue to reinforce defensive lines on the Donetsk axis, particularly around the Mokri Yaly river line, and be prepared for continued RUF ground assaults. Reinforce defensive posture and reconnaissance on the Sumy axis in anticipation of increased RUF activity. Accelerate "Sapsan" production and integration where feasible, and prioritize the integration of new NATO-provided drone and AD systems. Publicize UAF successes and defense industry developments to counter RUF narratives and boost morale, while acknowledging the severe impact of RUF terror strikes.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge ISR assets (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) to Dyleyevka, Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast), and the Mokri Yaly river line to immediately verify RUF claims of capture and bridgehead establishment. Assess the tactical implications for UAF defensive operations.
IMMEDIATE: Conduct urgent, detailed BDA on all ballistic missile strikes in Dnipro and any other impacted areas. Prioritize specific targets (e.g., "Yuzhmash," Kramatorsk airport, civilian infrastructure, railway) and the extent of damage to inform AD and force protection. Identify munition types.
HIGH: Prioritize all-source ISR (IMINT, SIGINT, EWINT) on Sumy Oblast. Determine the precise intent behind increased RUF reconnaissance UAV activity. Is this preparatory to a ground offensive, or for sustained border operations?
HIGH: Conduct detailed SIGINT and HUMINT on RUF communication lines and troop movements on the Donetsk and Sumy axes, specifically to identify any further attempts to cross rivers, establish new bridgeheads, or intensify special forces operations or larger ground movements.
HIGH: Monitor RUF and pro-RUF IO channels (including Kadyrov_95 and Lavrov/Peskov's statements) for any further shifts in narrative regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, and their pivot back to Ukraine, as this indicates RUF's strategic intent. Pay close attention to mockery of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.
HIGH: Gather intelligence on the "fiber optics" in Serebryansky Forest. Determine if this represents new RUF C2 infrastructure or other military developments.
MEDIUM: Verify RUF claims of preventing a UAF naval landing on Crimea. Assess the credibility and the context of the associated video.
MEDIUM: Assess potential threats to the joint UK-Ukraine drone production initiative and "Sapsan" production facilities.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

URGENT: Maintain highest AD readiness across Kyiv, Dnipro, Poltava, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy Oblast. Prioritize assets capable of intercepting ballistic missiles and counter-UAV systems, given the recent Iskander-M strikes and increased UAV activity. Ensure rapid re-engagement capabilities and saturation defense.
HIGH: Review and enhance force protection measures for all critical infrastructure, especially railway hubs and lines, military facilities, schools, and hospitals in central and eastern Ukraine, given the direct hits on civilian infrastructure and a train.
HIGH: Advise civilian populations in threatened areas to strictly adhere to air raid warnings and seek reinforced shelter. Communicate clearly why certain conventional shelters may no longer be sufficient against powerful ballistic strikes.

6.3. Ground Forces:

IMMEDIATE: Confirm or deny RUF claims of Dyleyevka and Perebudova capture and the Mokri Yaly bridgehead. If confirmed, immediately reinforce defensive positions along the river line and establish counter-attack plans.
URGENT: Continue to reinforce defensive positions on the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia axes, specifically focusing on preventing further RUF breakthroughs and consolidating existing lines. Be prepared for increased special forces activity.
URGENT: Elevate readiness and reinforce defensive lines in Sumy Oblast. Be prepared for intensified RUF ground activity or a new offensive, following the increased reconnaissance UAV activity.
HIGH: Address the demand for drone operators. Accelerate training programs and recruitment efforts for drone units, emphasizing their critical role in both ISR and offensive operations.
HIGH: Integrate and deploy new domestic ballistic missile capabilities (Sapsan) and incoming NATO-provided AD/drone systems for strategic targeting of RUF assets and C2 nodes where appropriate, once operational.
HIGH: Enhance protection against RUF special forces operating in rear areas.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Issue rapid, verifiable counter-narratives to RUF claims of Dyleyevka and Perebudova capture and any false claims regarding UAF operations. Provide transparent, evidence-based updates on UAF defensive operations.
URGENT: Launch a globally coordinated IO campaign to highlight Russia's deliberate attempts to exploit and prolong global conflicts (e.g., Israel-Iran) to divert attention from its aggression in Ukraine, and its targeting of civilian infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, and transport. Expose RUF's hypocrisy in mocking peace efforts while continuing its own war of aggression.
HIGH: Publicize NATO's upcoming statement on large-scale support for drones and AD for Ukraine. Emphasize Ukraine's resilience and growing international backing.
HIGH: Counter RUF narratives that attempt to delegitimize Ukraine's diplomatic efforts or portray Ukraine as "begging" for a ceasefire. Reiterate Ukraine's principled stand for peace based on territorial integrity and sovereignty.
HIGH: Collaborate with international partners to fact-check and expose conflicting reports from RUF-affiliated media regarding global events (e.g., Iran-Israel ceasefire violations), and their cynical mockery of Ukrainian civilian casualties.
MEDIUM: Advise Ukrainian channels to exercise caution with overly aggressive rhetoric that could be exploited by RUF propaganda.