Sitrep 2025-06-24 09:07:46

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 240907Z JUN 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues offensive pressure. UAF 63rd Brigade reports Serebryansky Forest is "full of fiber optics," indicating potential RUF infrastructure or communication efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF source; LOW CONFIDENCE on full implication). Poddubny (RUF source) claims the "liberation" of Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast) took three days, with RUF 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade "Vostok" crossing the Mokri Yaly river, establishing a bridgehead for further advance, and clearing tree lines for armored vehicle passage. Video shows a Russian flag, possibly in Perebudova. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim, unverified by UAF; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – Video evidence of RUF presence).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched at least four Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Taganrog against Dnipro city, causing a series of powerful explosions. Russian sources (Poddubny, Voenkor Kotsenok) claim targets were "Yuzhmash" (Southern Machine-Building Plant), which they allege is involved in Ukraine's missile program, and Kramatorsk airport, described as a UAF equipment repair base. UAF and Ukrainian media (RBC-Ukraine, Ukrzaliznytsia) confirm a passenger train (No. 52 Odesa-Zaporizhzhia) was damaged by the blast wave near Dnipro. Air raid alerts for ballistic threats were also issued for Poltava Oblast, with a high-speed target heading towards Myrhorod. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (OVA) reports hits on civilian infrastructure and 4 wounded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF/Independent sources on impacts, casualties, train damage; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on specific targets). Ballistic missile threat declared over for Dnipro, Poltava, and Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF Air Force, KMVA, Zaporizhzhia OVA).
Kyiv Oblast: Air raid alert declared for Kyiv due to ballistic missile threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF source). All clear issued for Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – KMVA).
Kherson Oblast: Ukrainian Naval Forces destroyed another RUF landing craft with troops along the western coast of Kherson Oblast. RUF sources ("Dva Mayora") claim three people, including a child, were wounded in Kherson Oblast due to UAF shelling in the last 24 hours. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF video; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim on casualties).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF "Voin DV" (30th Separate Special Forces Company, 36th Army) claims destruction of two UAF vehicles in the near rear, in the Voskresenka area. Zaporizhzhia OVA reports an all-clear on air raid. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim).
Chernihiv Oblast: Rocket danger alert issued. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF Air Force).
RF Territory (General): TASS reports Flydubai's flight schedule is back to normal, except for flights to Iran, Iraq, Syria, and St. Petersburg. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Global - Middle East (Israel/Iran): Conflicting reports on Israel-Iran ceasefire. Israeli media claim Iran violated ceasefire with one rocket launch towards northern Israel. Iranian state TV (IRIB) denies launching any missile after ceasefire announcement. TASS reports Israeli Army Chief of General Staff states Israel will respond with force to rocket fire from Iran. RUF channels (WarGonzo, Alex Parker Returns, Два майора, Operatsiya Z, Rybar) largely amplify the Iranian denial and mock ongoing conflict resolution efforts, asserting Iran's "victory." Iranian National Security Council states Iran is ready to decisively respond to any subsequent aggression if ceasefire is violated. TASS reports Iranian MFA statement that strike on US base Al-Udeid was self-defense, not against Qatar. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – Conflicting reports from multiple sources).
RF Territory (Donetsk/Moscow): Mash na Donbasse reports discussions on delaying confirmation of "Phoenix" SIM cards. TASS reports on funeral of Valentina Talyzina. News of Moscow reports incident at Sheremetyevo airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Domestic RUF news).
RF Territory (Kursk): TASS reports that the Investigative Committee has identified UAF commanders allegedly involved in "illegal removal of civilians" from Kursk Oblast. Video shows a uniformed person interrogating a civilian in what appears to be a medical setting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – TASS report; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF narrative framing).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

No significant changes to weather or environmental factors affecting operations in Ukraine. Visuals from Dnipro show clear skies during ballistic missile impacts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF):
- Ground Forces: UAF 63rd Brigade active in Serebryansky Forest. UAF continues to engage RUF assets. UAF Head of Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, states Ukraine has begun mass production of its Sapsan short-range ballistic missiles. Ukrainian combat units, such as "Shershny Dovbusha" (Hornets of Dovbush), are calling for more personnel to utilize various drone types, indicating a high demand for operators. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF sources, including commander's statement).
- Air Defense (AD): UAF Air Force reports high-speed target (ballistic missile) heading towards Poltava Oblast, specifically Myrhorod and Chernihiv Oblast. Air raid alerts issued for Dnipro and Kyiv due to ballistic threat. All-clear confirmed for most affected areas. "Operatyvnyi ZSU" states the "two-walls" rule for shelter is no longer effective, likely due to the power of recent RUF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF source; HIGH CONFIDENCE – Ukrainian media and official warnings).
- Naval Forces: UAF Naval Forces continue successful asymmetric operations in the Black Sea, destroying another RUF landing craft with troops off Kherson coast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF video).
- Defense Industry: UAF Minister of Defense Umerov states Ukraine and UK are launching a new mega-project for joint drone production in the UK. UAF is commencing mass production of "Sapsan" short-range ballistic missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF sources).
- Information Operations (IO): Ukrainian channels (e.g., STERNENKO) continue to release combat footage demonstrating destruction of RUF assets and call for extreme measures against Russians (e.g., "Russians have no right to life"). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF channels).
Russian Forces (RUF):
- Ground Operations: RUF 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade "Vostok" claims "liberation" of Perebudova, establishing a bridgehead across Mokri Yaly river. RUF 30th Separate Special Forces Company, 36th Army claims destruction of two UAF vehicles near Voskresenka. "Arkhanhel Spetsnaza" and "Dva Mayora" share video footage of special forces ambushes on enemy transport. "Dva Mayora" shares video of drone footage of artillery/airstrikes on damaged industrial/military buildings on Zaporizhzhia front. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on specific gains/destructions; HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF reports/videos on tactics).
- Artillery/Air Strikes: RUF employed at least four Iskander-M ballistic missiles on Dnipro from Taganrog. RUF channels (Военкор Котенок, Два майора, WarGonzo, Поддубный) report powerful explosions in Dnipropetrovsk and missile strikes on Kramatorsk airport and Dnipropetrovsk (Yuzhmash). "Colonelcassad" publishes a "Chronicle of strikes on Ukraine 23-24 June 2025," featuring night explosions, likely in Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF reports; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on targets).
- Information Operations (IO): RUF channels continue to disseminate claims of tactical successes (Perebudova), highlight Israeli-Iranian tensions with a focus on Iranian denials of ceasefire violations and claims of "victory," and use statements from Lavrov/Peskov to frame Ukraine as "begging" for a ceasefire. Colonelcassad reports a Ukrainian militant sentenced to 17 years for crimes in Kursk Oblast and video from TASS shows Russian Investigative Committee identifying UAF commanders for "illegal removal of civilians" from Kursk. RUF channels continue to mock perceived Western failures in mediating the Israel-Iran conflict. Kadyrov_95 channel promotes the "strength of the Chechen warrior spirit" with combat footage (from previous report). "Alex Parker Returns" mocks the damage to the Odesa-Zaporizhzhia train ("what kind of summer without the sea?"). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

CRITICAL: Immediate and independent verification of RUF claims regarding capture of Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast). Assess tactical implications of RUF crossing Mokri Yaly river and establishing a bridgehead. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Conduct comprehensive BDA on ballistic missile strikes in Dnipro, Kyiv, and Poltava Oblasts. Verify specific targets, damage assessment, and munition types, especially if DPRK variants are confirmed. Prioritize damage assessment to Yuzhmash and Kramatorsk Airport, and the train line. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA teams, IMINT, OSINT).
HIGH: Assess the significance of "fiber optics" in Serebryansky Forest. Is this new RUF command/communications infrastructure, or a defensive measure? (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).
HIGH: Monitor RUF claims of "liberation" of specific areas. Are these genuine advances or propaganda to boost morale? (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
HIGH: Assess the impact of UAF "Sapsan" ballistic missile mass production. What is the intended rate of production and operational deployment timeline? (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, TECHINT).
MEDIUM: Verify RUF claims of destruction of UAF vehicles near Voskresenka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
MEDIUM: Monitor RUF internal security issues and legal proceedings (e.g., sentencing of Ukrainian "militant" in Kursk, identification of UAF commanders for "illegal removal" of civilians). Assess if these are isolated incidents or part of broader RUF counter-insurgency efforts and pretext generation. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
MEDIUM: Assess the effectiveness and impact of RUF special forces ambushes. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, OSINT).
LOW: Determine the purpose of "Phoenix" SIM card confirmation discussions by Mash na Donbasse. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

Ground Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate capability for localized ground advances, particularly on the Donetsk axis, utilizing combined arms (infantry with armored support) and special forces. The claimed establishment of a bridgehead across Mokri Yaly river indicates offensive maneuver capability. Their ability to conduct ambushes in rear areas further demonstrates their special operations capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Artillery/Air Capabilities: RUF maintains a significant ballistic missile strike capability, as evidenced by the multiple Iskander-M launches on Dnipro and threats to Kyiv/Poltava/Chernihiv. This capability is used for deep strikes against urban centers, military-industrial complexes (Yuzhmash), and military infrastructure (Kramatorsk airport). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Naval Capabilities: RUF maintains presence in Black Sea but continues to be vulnerable to UAF asymmetric attacks on small landing crafts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF maintains highly agile and adaptive IO, able to rapidly pivot and amplify narratives (e.g., Israel-Iran ceasefire denials/mockery, "victory" for Iran) while pushing its core messages of tactical success and justification for aggression (e.g., blaming UAF for "illegal removal" of civilians in Kursk). RUF is leveraging Lavrov's and Peskov's statements to undermine Ukraine's diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire. They are also using highly provocative language against Ukraine (e.g., mocking train damage). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Intentions: RUF intends to:
- Sustain Offensive Pressure: Continue high-intensity ground assaults on key axes (Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia) to achieve localized gains and attrit UAF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Degrade UAF Morale and Capabilities: Through continued terror strikes against civilian targets and potentially military infrastructure/industry using ballistic missiles. This includes targeting critical transport infrastructure like train lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Control Global Narrative & Divert Attention: Continue to use the Israel-Iran conflict, despite ceasefire claims, to project global instability and undermine diplomatic efforts, portraying itself as a key actor and amplifying narratives that benefit its strategic position. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Undermine Ukrainian Sovereignty & Diplomatic Efforts: Through Lavrov's and Peskov's statements, frame Ukraine as weak and dependent, and delegitimize any peace negotiations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Project Domestic Strength: Use claims of tactical gains, internal security actions (sentencing of "militant", blaming UAF commanders for "illegal removal" of civilians), and control over occupied territories (SIM card issue) to reinforce domestic support and project control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

RUF: Continued use of ballistic missiles (Iskander-M) for deep strikes on urban centers (Dnipro, Kyiv, Poltava) and potentially military-industrial targets indicates a persistent strategy of terror and disruption. The reported capture of Perebudova with a river crossing suggests an adaptation to complex terrain and an attempt to expand bridgeheads. RUF continues to adapt its IO to rapidly respond to global events, leveraging them for its narrative, and aggressively mocking UAF setbacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Increased reporting on special forces ambushes suggests continued, possibly intensified, rear-area operations. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
UAF: Continues to demonstrate effective asymmetric naval warfare against RUF landing crafts. UAF is proactively expanding its domestic defense industry with the mass production of "Sapsan" ballistic missiles and joint drone production with the UK, indicating a long-term strategy for self-sufficiency and offensive capabilities. UAF AD remains vigilant in tracking ballistic threats, but acknowledges challenges with powerful strikes ("two-walls" rule no longer effective). UAF combat units continue to emphasize drone operations and the need for more personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

RUF continues to possess and employ ballistic missiles (Iskander-M), indicating sustained production or external supply. RUF's ability to maintain offensive operations on multiple axes suggests adequate logistical support for ground forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF's announcement of "Sapsan" mass production and joint drone ventures indicates a strategic shift towards enhancing long-term self-sustainment and reducing reliance on external aid for certain critical munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

RUF: Highly effective C2 over its IO, capable of immediate response and re-framing of international events to suit its narrative (e.g., Israel-Iran ceasefire denials/mockery). Tactical C2 for ground operations appears effective given claimed river crossing and bridgehead establishment. Their ability to coordinate special forces ambushes points to effective tactical C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF: Effective C2 in rapid air threat warnings, naval operations, and strategic announcements regarding domestic defense production. Effective C2 for counter-drone operations and ground defense as evidenced by successful destruction of RUF MLRS and repelling assaults. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

Ground Forces: UAF maintains a defensive posture, actively resisting RUF advances. UAF 63rd Brigade is deployed and operating in contested areas (Serebryansky Forest). UAF units are actively utilizing and seeking more personnel for drone operations, indicating a high reliance on this capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Naval Forces: UAF Naval Forces maintain an offensive posture in the Black Sea, effectively targeting and destroying RUF naval assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Air Defense: UAF AD is on high alert, actively tracking and warning of ballistic missile threats to major cities and critical infrastructure. Publicly acknowledges limitations against certain powerful strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Defense Industry: UAF is actively enhancing its domestic defense industrial base, with plans for mass production of "Sapsan" ballistic missiles and joint drone production with the UK. This indicates a focus on strengthening long-term self-reliance and deterrence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

Successes:
- Naval Strikes: UAF Naval Forces successfully destroyed another RUF landing craft with troops off the coast of Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Domestic Missile Production: Ukraine has commenced mass production of its "Sapsan" short-range ballistic missiles, a significant step in enhancing UAF's long-range strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Joint Drone Production: Agreement with UK for joint drone production strengthens UAF's drone capabilities and international defense ties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Artillery/Drone Operations: STERNENKO channel video shows effective destruction of an RUF MLRS. Other videos show drone attacks on military vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Setbacks:
- Civilian Casualties/Infrastructure Damage: RUF ballistic missile strikes caused powerful explosions in Dnipro, damaging civilian infrastructure, including a passenger train, and causing 4 wounded. Kyiv and Chernihiv also under ballistic threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports).
- Alleged Positional Setbacks: RUF claims "liberation" of Perebudova, establishing a bridgehead across Mokri Yaly river. This requires urgent verification as it would constitute a tactical setback. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claims).
- Alleged Vehicle Destruction: RUF claims destruction of two UAF vehicles near Voskresenka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified).
- Kherson Civilian Casualties (RUF Claim): RUF claims 3 casualties, including a child, from UAF shelling. This requires verification. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

Continued need for advanced AD systems to counter ballistic missile threats and saturate attacks. The mass production of "Sapsan" missiles aims to address long-range strike capabilities, but initial production rates and deployment timelines will be key. Joint drone production with the UK will augment existing capabilities, but there is an expressed need for more drone operators. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

Russian:
- Frontline Glorification/Claims: RUF channels (Poddubny, Kotsnews) continue to disseminate claims of tactical successes (e.g., Perebudova capture, bridgehead establishment, UAF vehicle destruction), showcasing RUF military prowess and effective operations. They are actively sharing videos of special forces operations and drone strikes from their side. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- International Diversion & Escalation (Israel-Iran): RUF channels (TASS, WarGonzo, Alex Parker Returns, Два майора, Operatsiya Z, Rybar) continue to exploit the Israel-Iran situation, amplifying Iranian denials of ceasefire violations and mocking perceived Western mediation failures, while now also pushing a narrative of Iranian "victory" and that the Israeli response was an act of "self-defense" against Qatar. They aim to maintain global instability and divert attention from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Undermining Ukrainian Diplomacy: Lavrov's and Peskov's statements portray Ukraine as "begging" for a ceasefire without conditions, attempting to delegitimize Ukraine's position and international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Domestic Justification/Rule of Law: Colonelcassad reports on the sentencing of a "Ukrainian militant" for crimes in Kursk. TASS reports on the Investigative Committee identifying UAF commanders allegedly involved in "illegal removal of civilians" from Kursk, reinforcing the narrative of Ukrainian aggression against RF territory and justifying punitive measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Chechen Glorification: Kadyrov_95 channel promotes the "spirit of the Chechen warrior," likely for internal motivation and recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Mockery/Dehumanization: RUF channels mock the damage to the Ukrainian passenger train, demonstrating a clear intent to dehumanize and further incite hatred. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Ukrainian:
- Situational Awareness/Transparency: UAF official channels (ОВА, Air Force, KMVA) continue to provide timely updates on air threats, missile strikes, and all-clears, demonstrating transparency regarding RUF attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Highlighting Military Successes: UAF channels publicize successful naval strikes and drone operations against RUF targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Showcasing Domestic Defense Capabilities: Announcements regarding "Sapsan" mass production and joint UK drone production aim to project strength, self-reliance, and international cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Rapid Global Contextualization: Ukrainian channels (Оперативний ЗСУ) are quick to report and fact-check conflicting statements regarding the Israel-Iran ceasefire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Extreme Rhetoric: Some Ukrainian channels (STERNENKO) use extremely aggressive and dehumanizing rhetoric against Russians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

Ukrainian: Civilian population continues to face high stress due to persistent ballistic missile threats and impacts in urban centers (Dnipro, Kyiv, Poltava, Chernihiv). The damage to the passenger train is likely to further heighten public anger and resolve. Warnings that the "two-walls" rule is no longer effective could increase anxiety. Successful UAF naval strikes and announcements of domestic defense production (Sapsan, joint drones) will boost morale and confidence in UAF's capabilities and long-term resilience. Calls for more drone operators indicate a strong sense of purpose and commitment to defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian: Domestic audiences are being saturated with claims of tactical successes and a controlled narrative of global conflict. Amplification of Iranian denials and "victory" claims regarding ceasefire violations reinforces the narrative of Russia being a reliable ally and an informed global actor. Lavrov's and Peskov's statements aim to reinforce the perception of Ukrainian weakness and Western pressure. News of internal security matters (Kursk "militants") reinforces the domestic narrative of defending against external threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

RUF's continued attempts to control the Israel-Iran narrative and mock Western mediation efforts are a direct threat to international stability and efforts to de-escalate global tensions. This serves to divert attention and resources from Ukraine. The Iranian MFA statement regarding the Al-Udeid strike adds another layer to the complex regional dynamics, which RUF seeks to exploit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Ukraine's announcement of joint drone production with the UK is a positive diplomatic development, demonstrating continued international security cooperation and bolstering UAF capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

Continued Attritional Ground Operations on Donetsk Axis with Persistent Ballistic Missile Strikes on Urban Centers and Critical Infrastructure, While Maintaining Global IO Diversion: RUF will likely continue high-intensity ground assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk, Perebudova), aiming to consolidate claimed gains and establish further bridgeheads across defensive lines. This will be supported by continued special forces operations in the near rear. Concurrently, RUF will conduct persistent ballistic missile strikes (Iskander-M) on major Ukrainian urban centers (Dnipro, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Chernihiv) and critical infrastructure (including transport networks like railways), aiming to degrade civilian morale, UAF force generation, and logistics capabilities. RUF will maintain its aggressive, multi-faceted IO campaign, focusing on amplifying Iranian narratives of "victory" over Israel and mocking Western diplomatic efforts regarding Israel-Iran, while subtly pushing narratives of Ukrainian weakness and desperation for a ceasefire, and framing UAF as committing "crimes" against Russian civilians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

Coordinated Strategic Ballistic Missile Saturation Campaign Paired with Breakthrough Attempt on Donetsk/Luhansk Axes, Under Cover of Heightened Global Instability Rhetoric and False-Flag Event: RUF will launch a highly coordinated, multi-wave ballistic missile saturation attack on critical UAF military and government command nodes, major urban centers, and key infrastructure across Ukraine (Kyiv, Dnipro, Poltava, Kharkiv, Chernihiv), designed to overwhelm UAF AD and cause significant disruption. Simultaneously, RUF will launch a major ground offensive aimed at achieving an operational breakthrough on the Donetsk and/or Luhansk axes, potentially leveraging newly established bridgeheads (e.g., Perebudova) and intensified special forces infiltration. This entire operation would be conducted under the cover of a significantly escalated RUF IO campaign emphasizing continuous global instability and the failure of Western diplomacy, leveraging the Israel-Iran conflict and other manufactured crises to maximum effect to paralyze international response and maintain diverted attention. This MDCOA could be immediately preceded or accompanied by a provocative false-flag operation inside Ukraine or on the RF border, framed by RUF as a Ukrainian "terrorist" act or "provocation" justifying massive retaliation. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 240907Z JUN 25):
- RUF: Expect continued RUF ballistic missile threats/strikes in central and eastern Ukraine (Dnipro, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv). RUF will continue to disseminate claims of tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast and use its IO to maintain the Israel-Iran narrative while subtly shifting focus back to Ukraine and domestic justification narratives.
- UAF Decision Point: Maintain highest AD readiness across all threatened oblasts, prioritizing interception of ballistic missiles. Immediately verify RUF claims regarding Perebudova and assess the security of the Mokri Yaly river line. Proactively monitor RUF IO channels for any new escalatory narratives or shifts in focus, particularly concerning the damaged train.
Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
- RUF: RUF will likely maintain or increase ballistic missile strikes on Ukrainian urban centers and critically assess damage to claimed military-industrial targets. Ground pressure on the Donetsk axis will likely continue, potentially with increased special forces activity. RUF will maintain a dual-track IO strategy, attempting to keep international attention on other crises while escalating narratives justifying its war in Ukraine.
- UAF Decision Point: Sustain intensified AD operations and enhance force protection for civilian and critical infrastructure targets, including railways. Continue to reinforce defensive lines on the Donetsk axis, particularly around the Mokri Yaly river line, and be prepared for continued RUF ground assaults. Accelerate "Sapsan" production and integration where feasible. Publicize UAF naval successes and defense industry developments to counter RUF narratives and boost morale, while acknowledging the severe impact of RUF terror strikes. Continue to expose RUF's use of global events for its propaganda and its deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure. Address the public's concern regarding the effectiveness of shelter rules.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge ISR assets (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) to Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast) and the Mokri Yaly river line to immediately verify RUF claims of capture and bridgehead establishment. Assess the tactical implications for UAF defensive operations.
IMMEDIATE: Conduct urgent, detailed BDA on all ballistic missile strikes in Dnipro, Chernihiv, Poltava, and any other impacted areas. Prioritize specific targets (e.g., "Yuzhmash," Kramatorsk airport) and the extent of damage to the passenger train and railway infrastructure. Identify munition types (including potential DPRK variants) to inform AD and force protection.
HIGH: Conduct detailed SIGINT and HUMINT on RUF communication lines and troop movements on the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia axes, specifically to identify any further attempts to cross rivers, establish new bridgeheads, or intensify special forces operations.
HIGH: Prioritize TECHINT on RUF special forces operations in near rear areas (e.g., Voskresenka area) to understand their tactics, equipment, and targeting priorities.
HIGH: Monitor RUF and pro-RUF IO channels (including Kadyrov_95 and Lavrov/Peskov's statements) for any further shifts in narrative regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, and their pivot back to Ukraine, as this indicates RUF's strategic intent. Pay close attention to mockery of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.
HIGH: Gather intelligence on the "fiber optics" in Serebryansky Forest. Determine if this represents new RUF C2 infrastructure or other military developments.
HIGH: Assess potential threats to the joint UK-Ukraine drone production initiative and "Sapsan" production facilities.
MEDIUM: Independently verify RUF claims of UAF shelling casualties in Kherson Oblast.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

URGENT: Maintain highest AD readiness across Kyiv, Dnipro, Poltava, Chernihiv, and other major urban centers. Prioritize assets capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, given the recent Iskander-M strikes. Ensure rapid re-engagement capabilities and saturation defense.
HIGH: Review and enhance force protection measures for all critical infrastructure, especially railway hubs and lines, and military facilities in central and eastern Ukraine, given the direct hit on a train.
HIGH: Advise civilian populations in threatened areas to strictly adhere to air raid warnings and seek reinforced shelter. Communicate clearly why the "two-walls" rule may no longer be sufficient against powerful ballistic strikes.

6.3. Ground Forces:

IMMEDIATE: Confirm or deny RUF claims of Perebudova capture and the Mokri Yaly bridgehead. If confirmed, immediately reinforce defensive positions along the river line and establish counter-attack plans.
URGENT: Continue to reinforce defensive positions on the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia axes, specifically focusing on preventing further RUF breakthroughs and consolidating existing lines. Be prepared for increased special forces activity.
HIGH: Address the demand for drone operators. Accelerate training programs and recruitment efforts for drone units, emphasizing their critical role in both ISR and offensive operations.
HIGH: Leverage UAF naval successes and domestic missile production (Sapsan) to boost morale and demonstrate offensive capabilities to frontline troops.
HIGH: Integrate and deploy new domestic ballistic missile capabilities (Sapsan) for strategic targeting of RUF assets and C2 nodes where appropriate, once operational.
HIGH: Enhance protection against RUF special forces operating in rear areas.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Issue rapid, verifiable counter-narratives to RUF claims of Perebudova capture and any false claims regarding UAF operations. Provide transparent, evidence-based updates on UAF defensive operations.
URGENT: Launch a globally coordinated IO campaign to highlight Russia's deliberate attempts to exploit and prolong global conflicts (e.g., Israel-Iran) to divert attention from its aggression in Ukraine, and its targeting of civilian infrastructure and transport. Expose RUF's hypocrisy in mocking peace efforts while continuing its own war of aggression.
HIGH: Publicize UAF successes in naval asymmetric warfare (destruction of RUF landing crafts) and the strategic development of domestic defense production (Sapsan missiles, UK joint drone venture). Emphasize Ukraine's resilience and growing self-reliance.
HIGH: Counter RUF narratives that attempt to delegitimize Ukraine's diplomatic efforts or portray Ukraine as "begging" for a ceasefire. Reiterate Ukraine's principled stand for peace based on territorial integrity and sovereignty.
HIGH: Collaborate with international partners to fact-check and expose conflicting reports from RUF-affiliated media regarding global events (e.g., Iran-Israel ceasefire violations), and their cynical mockery of Ukrainian civilian casualties.
MEDIUM: Advise Ukrainian channels to exercise caution with overly aggressive rhetoric that could be exploited by RUF propaganda.