Sitrep 2025-06-24 08:37:42

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 240837Z JUN 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues offensive pressure. UAF 63rd Brigade reports Serebryansky Forest is "full of fiber optics," indicating potential RUF infrastructure or communication efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF source; LOW CONFIDENCE on full implication). Poddubny (RUF source) claims the "liberation" of Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast) took three days, with RUF 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade "Vostok" crossing the Mokri Yaly river, establishing a bridgehead for further advance, and clearing tree lines for armored vehicle passage. Video shows a Russian flag, possibly in Perebudova. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim, unverified by UAF; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – Video evidence of RUF presence).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro): RUF launched at least four Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Taganrog against Dnipro city, causing a series of powerful explosions. Air raid alerts for ballistic threats were also issued for Poltava Oblast, with a high-speed target heading towards Myrhorod. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF/Independent sources; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims of strikes on Dnipropetrovsk).
Kyiv Oblast: Air raid alert declared for Kyiv due to ballistic missile threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF source).
Kherson Oblast: Ukrainian Naval Forces destroyed another RUF landing craft with troops along the western coast of Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF video).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RUF "Voin DV" (30th Separate Special Forces Company, 36th Army) claims destruction of two UAF vehicles in the near rear, in the Voskresenka area. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim).
RF Territory (General): TASS reports Flydubai's flight schedule is back to normal, except for flights to Iran, Iraq, Syria, and St. Petersburg. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Global - Middle East (Israel/Iran): Conflicting reports on Israel-Iran ceasefire. Israeli media claim Iran violated ceasefire with one rocket launch towards northern Israel. Iranian state TV (IRIB) denies launching any missile after ceasefire announcement. TASS reports Israeli Army Chief of General Staff states Israel will respond with force to rocket fire from Iran. RUF channels (WarGonzo, Alex Parker Returns, Два майора) largely amplify the Iranian denial and mock ongoing conflict resolution efforts. Iranian National Security Council states Iran is ready to decisively respond to any subsequent aggression if ceasefire is violated. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – Conflicting reports from multiple sources).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

No significant changes to weather or environmental factors affecting operations in Ukraine. Visuals from Dnipro show clear skies during ballistic missile impacts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF):
- Ground Forces: UAF 63rd Brigade active in Serebryansky Forest. UAF continues to engage RUF assets. UAF Head of Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, states Ukraine has begun mass production of its Sapsan short-range ballistic missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF sources).
- Air Defense (AD): UAF Air Force reports high-speed target (ballistic missile) heading towards Poltava Oblast, specifically Myrhorod. Air raid alerts issued for Dnipro and Kyiv due to ballistic threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF source).
- Naval Forces: UAF Naval Forces continue successful asymmetric operations in the Black Sea, destroying another RUF landing craft with troops off Kherson coast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF video).
- Defense Industry: UAF Minister of Defense Umerov states Ukraine and UK are launching a new mega-project for joint drone production in the UK. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF source).
Russian Forces (RUF):
- Ground Operations: RUF 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade "Vostok" claims "liberation" of Perebudova, establishing a bridgehead across Mokri Yaly river. RUF 30th Separate Special Forces Company, 36th Army claims destruction of two UAF vehicles near Voskresenka. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims).
- Artillery/Air Strikes: RUF employed at least four Iskander-M ballistic missiles on Dnipro from Taganrog. RUF channels (Военкор Котенок, Два майора, WarGonzo) report powerful explosions in Dnipropetrovsk and missile strikes on Kramatorsk and Dnipropetrovsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF reports; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims).
- Information Operations (IO): RUF channels continue to disseminate claims of tactical successes (Perebudova), highlight Israeli-Iranian tensions with a focus on Iranian denials of ceasefire violations, and use statements from Lavrov to frame Ukraine as "begging" for a ceasefire. Colonelcassad reports a Ukrainian militant sentenced to 17 years for crimes in Kursk Oblast. RUF channels continue to mock perceived Western failures in mediating the Israel-Iran conflict. Kadyrov_95 channel promotes the "strength of the Chechen warrior spirit" with combat footage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

CRITICAL: Immediate and independent verification of RUF claims regarding capture of Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast). Assess tactical implications of RUF crossing Mokri Yaly river and establishing a bridgehead. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Conduct comprehensive BDA on ballistic missile strikes in Dnipro, Kyiv, and Poltava Oblasts. Verify specific targets, damage assessment, and munition types, especially if DPRK variants are confirmed. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA teams, IMINT, OSINT).
HIGH: Assess the significance of "fiber optics" in Serebryansky Forest. Is this new RUF command/communications infrastructure, or a defensive measure? (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT).
HIGH: Monitor RUF claims of "liberation" of specific areas. Are these genuine advances or propaganda to boost morale? (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
HIGH: Assess the impact of UAF "Sapsan" ballistic missile mass production. What is the intended rate of production and operational deployment timeline? (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, TECHINT).
MEDIUM: Verify RUF claims of destruction of UAF vehicles near Voskresenka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
MEDIUM: Monitor RUF internal security issues and legal proceedings (e.g., sentencing of Ukrainian "militant" in Kursk). Assess if these are isolated incidents or part of broader RUF counter-insurgency efforts. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

Ground Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate capability for localized ground advances, particularly on the Donetsk axis, utilizing combined arms (infantry with armored support). The claimed establishment of a bridgehead across Mokri Yaly river indicates offensive maneuver capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Artillery/Air Capabilities: RUF maintains a significant ballistic missile strike capability, as evidenced by the multiple Iskander-M launches on Dnipro and threats to Kyiv/Poltava. This capability is used for deep strikes against urban centers and potentially military infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF special forces continue to operate in the near rear areas of UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Naval Capabilities: RUF maintains presence in Black Sea but continues to be vulnerable to UAF asymmetric attacks on small landing crafts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF maintains highly agile and adaptive IO, able to rapidly pivot and amplify narratives (e.g., Israel-Iran ceasefire denials/mockery) while pushing its core messages of tactical success and justification for aggression. RUF is leveraging Lavrov's statements to undermine Ukraine's diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Intentions: RUF intends to:
- Sustain Offensive Pressure: Continue high-intensity ground assaults on key axes (Donetsk) to achieve localized gains and attrit UAF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Degrade UAF Morale and Capabilities: Through continued terror strikes against civilian targets and potentially military infrastructure using ballistic missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Control Global Narrative & Divert Attention: Continue to use the Israel-Iran conflict, despite ceasefire claims, to project global instability and undermine diplomatic efforts, portraying itself as a key actor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Undermine Ukrainian Sovereignty & Diplomatic Efforts: Through Lavrov's statements, frame Ukraine as weak and dependent, and delegitimize any peace negotiations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Project Domestic Strength: Use claims of tactical gains and internal security actions (sentencing of "militant") to reinforce domestic support and project control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

RUF: Continued use of ballistic missiles (Iskander-M) for deep strikes on urban centers (Dnipro, Kyiv, Poltava) indicates a persistent strategy of terror and disruption. The reported capture of Perebudova with a river crossing suggests an adaptation to complex terrain and an attempt to expand bridgeheads. RUF continues to adapt its IO to rapidly respond to global events, leveraging them for its narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF: Continues to demonstrate effective asymmetric naval warfare against RUF landing crafts. UAF is proactively expanding its domestic defense industry with the mass production of "Sapsan" ballistic missiles and joint drone production with the UK, indicating a long-term strategy for self-sufficiency and offensive capabilities. UAF AD remains vigilant in tracking ballistic threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

RUF continues to possess and employ ballistic missiles (Iskander-M), indicating sustained production or external supply. RUF's ability to maintain offensive operations on multiple axes suggests adequate logistical support for ground forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF's announcement of "Sapsan" mass production and joint drone ventures indicates a strategic shift towards enhancing long-term self-sustainment and reducing reliance on external aid for certain critical munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

RUF: Highly effective C2 over its IO, capable of immediate response and re-framing of international events to suit its narrative (e.g., Israel-Iran ceasefire denials/mockery). Tactical C2 for ground operations appears effective given claimed river crossing and bridgehead establishment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF: Effective C2 in rapid air threat warnings, naval operations, and strategic announcements regarding domestic defense production. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

Ground Forces: UAF maintains a defensive posture, actively resisting RUF advances. UAF 63rd Brigade is deployed and operating in contested areas (Serebryansky Forest). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Naval Forces: UAF Naval Forces maintain an offensive posture in the Black Sea, effectively targeting and destroying RUF naval assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Air Defense: UAF AD is on high alert, actively tracking and warning of ballistic missile threats to major cities and critical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Defense Industry: UAF is actively enhancing its domestic defense industrial base, with plans for mass production of "Sapsan" ballistic missiles and joint drone production with the UK. This indicates a focus on strengthening long-term self-reliance and deterrence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

Successes:
- Naval Strikes: UAF Naval Forces successfully destroyed another RUF landing craft with troops off the coast of Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Domestic Missile Production: Ukraine has commenced mass production of its "Sapsan" short-range ballistic missiles, a significant step in enhancing UAF's long-range strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Joint Drone Production: Agreement with UK for joint drone production strengthens UAF's drone capabilities and international defense ties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Artillery/Drone Operations: STERNENKO channel video shows effective destruction of an RUF MLRS. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Setbacks:
- Civilian Casualties/Infrastructure Damage: RUF ballistic missile strikes caused powerful explosions in Dnipro, requiring immediate assessment of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Kyiv also under ballistic threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports).
- Alleged Positional Setbacks: RUF claims "liberation" of Perebudova, establishing a bridgehead across Mokri Yaly river. This requires urgent verification as it would constitute a tactical setback. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claims).
- Alleged Vehicle Destruction: RUF claims destruction of two UAF vehicles near Voskresenka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

Continued need for advanced AD systems to counter ballistic missile threats and saturate attacks. The mass production of "Sapsan" missiles aims to address long-range strike capabilities, but initial production rates and deployment timelines will be key. Joint drone production with the UK will augment existing capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

Russian:
- Frontline Glorification/Claims: RUF channels (Poddundy, Kotsnews) continue to disseminate claims of tactical successes (e.g., Perebudova capture, bridgehead establishment, UAF vehicle destruction), showcasing RUF military prowess and effective operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- International Diversion & Escalation (Israel-Iran): RUF channels (TASS, WarGonzo, Alex Parker Returns, Два майора) continue to exploit the Israel-Iran situation, specifically amplifying Iranian denials of ceasefire violations and mocking perceived Western mediation failures (e.g., "bulldozer" reference to Trump). They aim to maintain global instability and divert attention from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Undermining Ukrainian Diplomacy: Lavrov's statements portray Ukraine as "begging" for a ceasefire without conditions, attempting to delegitimize Ukraine's position and international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Domestic Justification/Rule of Law: Colonelcassad reports on the sentencing of a "Ukrainian militant" for crimes in Kursk, reinforcing the narrative of Ukrainian aggression against RF territory and justifying punitive measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Chechen Glorification: Kadyrov_95 channel promotes the "spirit of the Chechen warrior," likely for internal motivation and recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Ukrainian:
- Situational Awareness/Transparency: UAF official channels (ОВА, Air Force) continue to provide timely updates on air threats and missile strikes, demonstrating transparency regarding RUF attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Highlighting Military Successes: UAF channels publicize successful naval strikes and drone operations against RUF targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Showcasing Domestic Defense Capabilities: Announcements regarding "Sapsan" mass production and joint UK drone production aim to project strength, self-reliance, and international cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Rapid Global Contextualization: Ukrainian channels (Оперативний ЗСУ) are quick to report and fact-check conflicting statements regarding the Israel-Iran ceasefire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

Ukrainian: Civilian population continues to face high stress due to persistent ballistic missile threats and impacts in urban centers (Dnipro, Kyiv, Poltava). Successful UAF naval strikes and announcements of domestic defense production (Sapsan, joint drones) will boost morale and confidence in UAF's capabilities and long-term resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian: Domestic audiences are being saturated with claims of tactical successes and a controlled narrative of global conflict. Amplification of Iranian denials regarding ceasefire violations reinforces the narrative of Russia being a reliable ally and an informed global actor. Lavrov's statements aim to reinforce the perception of Ukrainian weakness and Western pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

RUF's continued attempts to control the Israel-Iran narrative and mock Western mediation efforts are a direct threat to international stability and efforts to de-escalate global tensions. This serves to divert attention and resources from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Ukraine's announcement of joint drone production with the UK is a positive diplomatic development, demonstrating continued international security cooperation and bolstering UAF capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

Continued Attritional Ground Operations on Donetsk Axis with Persistent Ballistic Missile Strikes on Urban Centers, While Maintaining Global IO Diversion: RUF will likely continue high-intensity ground assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk, Perebudova), aiming to consolidate claimed gains and establish further bridgeheads across defensive lines. Concurrently, RUF will conduct persistent ballistic missile strikes (Iskander-M) on major Ukrainian urban centers (Dnipro, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava) and key military infrastructure, aiming to degrade civilian morale and UAF force generation/logistics capabilities. RUF will maintain its aggressive, multi-faceted IO campaign, focusing on amplifying Iranian denials of ceasefire violations and mocking Western diplomatic efforts regarding Israel-Iran, while subtly pushing narratives of Ukrainian weakness and desperation for a ceasefire. RUF will continue to use internal security incidents (e.g., sentencing of "militants") to justify its aggression domestically. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

Coordinated Strategic Ballistic Missile Saturation Campaign Paired with Breakthrough Attempt on Donetsk/Luhansk Axes, Under Cover of Heightened Global Instability Rhetoric: RUF will launch a highly coordinated, multi-wave ballistic missile saturation attack on critical UAF military and government command nodes, major urban centers, and key infrastructure across Ukraine (Kyiv, Dnipro, Poltava, Kharkiv), designed to overwhelm UAF AD and cause significant disruption. Simultaneously, RUF will launch a major ground offensive aimed at achieving an operational breakthrough on the Donetsk and/or Luhansk axes, potentially leveraging newly established bridgeheads (e.g., Perebudova). This entire operation would be conducted under the cover of a significantly escalated RUF IO campaign emphasizing continuous global instability and the failure of Western diplomacy, leveraging the Israel-Iran conflict and other manufactured crises to maximum effect to paralyze international response and maintain diverted attention. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 240837Z JUN 25):
- RUF: Expect continued RUF ballistic missile strikes on Dnipro, Kyiv, and Poltava. RUF will continue to disseminate claims of tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast and use its IO to maintain the Israel-Iran narrative, while subtly shifting focus back to Ukraine.
- UAF Decision Point: Maintain highest AD readiness in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Poltava, prioritizing interception of ballistic missiles. Immediately verify RUF claims regarding Perebudova and assess the security of the Mokri Yaly river line. Proactively monitor RUF IO channels for any new escalatory narratives or shifts in focus.
Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
- RUF: RUF will likely maintain or increase ballistic missile strikes on Ukrainian urban centers and potentially target key military infrastructure, including UAF training centers. Ground pressure on the Donetsk axis will likely continue. RUF will maintain a dual-track IO strategy, attempting to keep international attention on other crises while escalating narratives justifying its war in Ukraine.
- UAF Decision Point: Sustain intensified AD operations. Continue to reinforce defensive lines on the Donetsk axis, particularly around the Mokri Yaly river line, and be prepared for continued RUF ground assaults. Accelerate "Sapsan" production and integration where feasible. Publicize UAF naval successes and defense industry developments to counter RUF narratives and boost morale. Continue to expose RUF's use of global events for its propaganda.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge ISR assets (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) to Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast) and the Mokri Yaly river line to immediately verify RUF claims of capture and bridgehead establishment. Assess the tactical implications for UAF defensive operations.
IMMEDIATE: Conduct urgent BDA on all ballistic missile strikes in Dnipro, Kyiv, and Poltava. Identify impact locations, damage, and munition types (including potential DPRK variants) to inform AD and force protection.
HIGH: Conduct detailed SIGINT and HUMINT on RUF communication lines and troop movements on the Donetsk axis, specifically to identify any further attempts to cross rivers or establish new bridgeheads.
HIGH: Prioritize TECHINT on RUF special forces operations in near rear areas (e.g., Voskresenka area) to understand their tactics, equipment, and targeting priorities.
HIGH: Monitor RUF and pro-RUF IO channels (including Kadyrov_95 and Lavrov's statements) for any further shifts in narrative regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, and their pivot back to Ukraine, as this indicates RUF's strategic intent.
HIGH: Gather intelligence on the "fiber optics" in Serebryansky Forest. Determine if this represents new RUF C2 infrastructure or other military developments.
HIGH: Assess potential threats to the joint UK-Ukraine drone production initiative.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

URGENT: Maintain highest AD readiness across Kyiv, Dnipro, Poltava, and other major urban centers. Prioritize assets capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, given the recent Iskander-M strikes. Ensure rapid re-engagement capabilities.
HIGH: Review and enhance force protection measures for all critical infrastructure and military facilities in central and eastern Ukraine, especially in areas subjected to ballistic missile threats.
HIGH: Advise civilian populations in threatened areas to strictly adhere to air raid warnings and seek shelter.

6.3. Ground Forces:

IMMEDIATE: Confirm or deny RUF claims of Perebudova capture and the Mokri Yaly bridgehead. If confirmed, immediately reinforce defensive positions along the river line and establish counter-attack plans.
URGENT: Continue to reinforce defensive positions on the Donetsk axis, specifically focusing on preventing further RUF breakthroughs and consolidating existing lines.
HIGH: Leverage UAF naval successes and domestic missile production (Sapsan) to boost morale and demonstrate offensive capabilities to frontline troops.
HIGH: Integrate and deploy new domestic ballistic missile capabilities (Sapsan) for strategic targeting of RUF assets and C2 nodes where appropriate.
HIGH: Enhance protection against RUF special forces operating in rear areas.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Issue rapid, verifiable counter-narratives to RUF claims of Perebudova capture. Provide transparent, evidence-based updates on UAF defensive operations.
URGENT: Launch a globally coordinated IO campaign to highlight Russia's deliberate attempts to exploit and prolong global conflicts (e.g., Israel-Iran) to divert attention from its aggression in Ukraine. Expose RUF's hypocrisy in mocking peace efforts while continuing its own war of aggression.
HIGH: Publicize UAF successes in naval asymmetric warfare (destruction of RUF landing crafts) and the strategic development of domestic defense production (Sapsan missiles, UK joint drone venture). Emphasize Ukraine's resilience and growing self-reliance.
HIGH: Counter RUF narratives that attempt to delegitimize Ukraine's diplomatic efforts or portray Ukraine as "begging" for a ceasefire. Reiterate Ukraine's principled stand for peace based on territorial integrity and sovereignty.
HIGH: Collaborate with international partners to fact-check and expose conflicting reports from RUF-affiliated media regarding global events (e.g., Iran-Israel ceasefire violations).