Sitrep 2025-06-24 08:07:48

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 240800Z JUN 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

Donetsk Oblast: RUF continues offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk axis (Karlivka, Yasnobrodivka, Nevelske), Kramatorsk axis (Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka), Kurakhove axis (Heorhiivka, Maksymilyanivka, Krasnohorivka), and Velyka Novosilka axis (Urozhaine). RUF claims destruction of UAF Mastiff armored vehicle near Yalta with Lancet. RUF also claims raising of Russian flag over Novosergiivka (DNR), supported by video. FSB claims discovery of a booby-trapped weapons cache near Selidovo. Active engagements noted on the Krasnoarmeysk - Ulyanovka (Malinovka) axis. UAF "BLACK SKY" unit effectively liquidating RUF personnel in Donbas with drone strikes. RUF has launched KABs on Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF claims and source maps; UAF source videos).
Luhansk Oblast: Engagements indicated on the Siversk axis (Rozdolivka, Bilohorivka) and between Siversk and Ivano-Darivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF source maps).
Sumy Oblast: RUF drone attack resulted in 3 fatalities (including an 8-year-old child) and 6 injuries. Poddubny (RUF source) reports RUF presence or probing in a "buffer zone." UAF reports high demand for ISR and combat drones. Ukrainian Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation. A group of UAVs was reported heading towards Poltava Oblast. RUF claims destruction of a UAF Abrams tank by Lancet. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF/Independent sources; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims).
Kharkiv Oblast: RUF launched strikes on Kharkiv city and 5 settlements, resulting in 3 injured. Engagements indicated on the Kharkiv axis (Vovchansk). UAF BM-21 Grad MLRS firing at RUF positions. Video from Kupyansk direction posted by RUF source. RUF claims destruction of Ukrainian combatants in Kharkov and Chernigov regions. RUF tactical aviation launched KABs on northern Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF/Independent sources; RUF source videos).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: FSB claims detention of three Russians suspected of attempting sabotage on gas distribution network in Berdyansk. RF Aerospace Forces claim destruction of UAF temporary deployment points (PVD) with FAB-1500 bombs. UAF Zaporizhzhia OVA issued missile threat warning. UAF Air Force reported missile danger. Zaporizhzhia OVA posted video about installing solar panels on schools and hospitals. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF/RUF sources).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolskyi Raion): RUF attacked Nikopol, Marhanetska, and Myrivska communities with artillery and FPV drones. RUF sources claim foreign mercenaries near Yanvarskoye attempting to flee. Explosions reported in Dnipro with high-speed targets detected, confirming ballistic missile threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF OВА; LOW CONFIDENCE – RUF claim).
Kyiv Oblast: Search and rescue operations completed in Shevchenkivskyi Raion, confirming 9 fatalities from previous RUF attack. KMVA posts photo honoring fallen Kyiv defenders. RUF source claims massive strike on Kyiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF source; LOW CONFIDENCE – RUF claim).
Odesa Oblast: Affected by RUF missile/drone attacks. Southern Defense Forces report 38 Shahed-131/136 UAVs destroyed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF source).
Kherson Oblast: Ukrainian Naval Forces destroyed a RUF landing craft with troops along the western coast. UAF destroyed RUF boat with troops moving along Dnipro's right bank. Bayraktar TB2 destroyed RUF boat with landing party near Tendrivska Kosa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF video).
RF Territory (General): RUF MoD claims 20 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over RF territory overnight. Drone strike confirmed on residential building in Krasnogorsk, Moscow Oblast, with casualties. Poddubny posts tactical analysis of damaged armored vehicles and infrastructure, likely from UAF deep strikes. UAV threat in Lipetsk Oblast. Over 500 houses destroyed in Brianskiy Oblast since start of war. Video claims "Rubicon" operations in Kursk direction, showing destruction of vehicles and comms tower. Pregnant woman in Krasnogorsk safe after UAV attack. UAF Ivan Franko Group drone operators successfully targeted RUF logistics ("roads of death") in rear areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – Independent RF/OSINT sources; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claims).
Lipetsk Oblast, RF: Temporary restrictions on air traffic at Tambov airport. Temporary restrictions also for Penza and Saratov airports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – TASS/Rosaviatsiya).
Black Sea/Azov Sea: Ukrainian Naval Forces continue to issue maritime situation reports. UAF CyberBoroshno posts video of Bayraktar TB2 destroying RUF boat with landing party. Southern Defense Forces shot down 3 new "Chernika-2" kamikaze drones. Downed drone wing with Ukrainian defiant text. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF source).
Global - Middle East (Israel/Iran): Israel confirmed ceasefire with Iran but also reported new rocket launches from Iran, despite ceasefire. RUF and Ukrainian sources corroborate reports of Israeli Army detecting new rocket launches. RUF sources continue to promote escalation narratives and blame Israel for civilian casualties/assassinations. Syrian airspace reopened. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF/RUF sources on rocket launches; LOW CONFIDENCE – RUF claims on Israeli war crimes/escalation narrative).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

No significant changes to weather or environmental factors affecting operations in Ukraine. Nighttime conditions observed in video footage of Sumy drone attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF):
- Ground Forces: UAF maintains defensive posture, with active engagements on multiple axes. UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" shares footage of D-30 artillery in action. UAF General Staff shares photos of Ukrainian soldiers and "First Separate Medical Battalion" pilot project. 25th Separate Airborne Brigade conducts obstacle course training. 110th Brigade raising funds for "anti-motorcycle" work. "BLACK SKY" unit liquidating RUF personnel with drone strikes. Ivan Franko Group drone operators targeting RUF logistics in rear areas. UAF recruits completing basic military training, including trench and urban combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF sources).
- Air Defense (AD): UAF Air Force reports 78/97 RUF UAVs neutralized overnight. Multiple groups of UAVs detected in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts (heading towards Poltava). Poltava Oblast "all clear" for air threat. Shahed threat for Chernihiv. Southern Defense Forces destroyed 38 Shahed-131/136 UAVs. 3 new "Chernika-2" kamikaze drones shot down. Missile danger in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with ballistic threats on Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF source).
- Naval Forces: UAF Naval Forces successfully destroyed a RUF landing craft and multiple RUF boats with troops. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF video).
- Cyber/Counter-Intelligence: SBU detained a minor FSB agent accused of guiding missiles to Dnipro and Poltava. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF source).
Russian Forces (RUF):
- Ground Operations: RUF claims entry into Serebryanka and Novosergiivka. WarGonzo maps show continued offensive pressure on Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, Siversk, and Vovchansk axes, and new activity on Krasnoarmeysk - Ulyanovka (Malinovka) and Siversk - Ivano-Darivka axes. Poddubny reports RUF presence in a "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast. "Воин DV" shows Russian aviation delivering "gifts" to UAF 110th Territorial Defense Brigade near Poltavka. Colonelcassad shares T-80BVM tank crew destroying UAF strongholds on Krasnoarmeysk direction. Heavily modified vehicle ("hedgehog with skewers") observed. Fighterbomber shows BMP movement. MoD Russia shows Lancet strike. Artillery/mortar fire targeting fortified positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF sources, with MEDIUM/LOW on specific claims).
- Artillery/Air Strikes: RUF continues to employ indirect fire, KABs, and UAVs (Geranium-2, Chernika-2), causing civilian casualties in Sumy and Kharkiv, and massed attacks on Kramatorsk. KAB launches reported on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. RF Aerospace Forces claim destruction of UAF PVDs with FAB-1500 bombs on Zaporizhzhia direction. RUF claims strike on UAF training ground in Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF reports, RUF claims). RUF MoD claims 20 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over RF regions. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim).
- Information Operations (IO): RUF channels (TASS, WarGonzo, Поддубный, Воин DV, Colonelcassad, Операция Z, Сливочный каприз, Дневник Десантника, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, Рыбарь, Kotsnews, Народная милиция ДНР) continue to disseminate claims of tactical successes, amplify the 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative, and push the Krokus City Hall perpetrator claim as justification for aggression. They are attempting to prolong the Israel-Iran conflict narrative by blaming Israel for continued instability and "war crimes" to further destabilize the global information environment, even as they explicitly state a return of focus to Ukraine. They also promote narratives of UAF desertion and delegitimize Zelenskyy. FSB claims of sabotage in Zaporizhzhia and weapon caches near Selidovo are used to frame UAF as terrorists. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

CRITICAL: Immediate and independent verification of RUF claims regarding entry into Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast) and Novosergiivka (DNR). Assess the impact on UAF defensive lines. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Independent verification and assessment of the tactical significance of RUF presence in the "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast. Determine the intent (reconnaissance, forward positioning, defensive screen). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, HUMINT, SIGINT).
HIGH: Conduct comprehensive BDA on the drone attack in Sumy Oblast and artillery/FPV drone/KAB/FAB-1500 attacks in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Verify munition types and specific targets, especially the new "Chernika-2" drones. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA teams, IMINT, OSINT).
HIGH: Monitor RUF air traffic restrictions in RF (Tambov, Penza, Saratov airports) to assess any correlation with UAF deep strike activities or internal security concerns. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
HIGH: Verify the report of Kadyrovites killing the Suji military police chief. Assess if this indicates significant internal discipline issues, factionalism, or a deliberate elimination of an anti-corruption figure within RUF. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT).
CRITICAL: Obtain specific details and independent verification of the Russian Investigative Committee's claim of identifying the "perpetrator" of the Krokus City Hall attack. This is a major IO development and will inform RUF's future actions. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Assess the operational impact of novel RUF vehicle modifications ("hedgehog with skewers"). Determine the intended purpose (e.g., anti-drone, anti-personnel, psychological warfare) and evaluate its effectiveness. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
MEDIUM: Verify RUF claim of foreign mercenaries fleeing near Yanvarskoye. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT).
MEDIUM: Investigate the "Chernika-2" drone claims by UAF Southern Defense Forces. Assess its capabilities and potential for mass production by RUF. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, TECHINT).
LOW: Verify the RUF claim of UAF Abrams tank destruction in Sumy Oblast. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
HIGH: Monitor RUF narrative surrounding Pridnestrovie. Assess if this is a precursor to an information operation or military escalation in the region. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

Ground Capabilities: RUF continues high-intensity, attritional ground assaults on multiple axes (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv). Claims of localized advances in Donetsk Oblast, if verified, indicate sustained offensive capability. Presence in Sumy "buffer zone" indicates active shaping operations. RUF aviation provides close air support and interdiction. RUF uses unconventional vehicle modifications and heavy ordnance (FAB-1500) for precision strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on capability, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on specific claims).
Artillery/Air Capabilities: RUF maintains significant capability for artillery, KAB, and UAV strikes against UAF positions and civilian targets. High volume of UAVs (97 detected) demonstrates sustained mass drone employment for reconnaissance and strike, aiming to saturate UAF AD. Continued KAB launches indicate intent to degrade defenses and logistics in northern/eastern directions. Missile launches on Dnipro show continued ballistic strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Naval Capabilities: RUF maintains Black Sea presence but is vulnerable to UAF asymmetric attacks on landing crafts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF maintains a highly adaptive and multi-pronged IO approach. Exploitation of the Israel-Iran conflict to divert attention from Ukraine, rapid narrative shifts (from escalation to "stabilization" then back to Ukraine), and direct blaming of Israel for continued conflict demonstrate sophisticated, real-time narrative control. The formal claim of identifying the Krokus City Hall perpetrator is a critical escalation for RUF's pretext-building. Continued historical narratives (22 JUN 1941) and domestic appeals for military donations aim to reinforce internal cohesion and support for escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Intentions: RUF intends to:
- Sustain Offensive Pressure: Maintain ground and indirect fire pressure on key axes (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv), seeking operational breakthroughs and attriting UAF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Open New Fronts: Continue shaping operations and force posturing for a potential major ground offensive on the Sumy and/or Kharkiv axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Maximize Global Distraction & De-legitimize Ukraine: Continuously amplify and distort international events (Israel-Iran) to divert global attention, erode international support, and position Russia as a critical global player. The explicit pivot back to Ukraine ("return to the Khokhols") indicates they believe the distraction has served its purpose. RUF is attempting to prolong the Israel-Iran conflict narrative to maintain global volatility and deflect attention. The mention of Pridnestrovie indicates an intent to open a new geopolitical/military pressure point. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Degrade UAF Morale and Capabilities: Through continued terror strikes against civilians and infrastructure, particularly with drones, ballistic missiles, and artillery, and targeting force generation capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Project Domestic Stability & Justify Aggression: Continues to highlight economic resilience and use attacks on RF territory (Krasnogorsk, Bryansk) to reinforce domestic support and justify escalation, leveraging public support for military financing. The formal claim regarding the Krokus perpetrator and FSB claims of apprehending saboteurs directly serve this purpose and are powerful internal justifications for escalated actions. Internal security legislation also serves to project order and control domestically. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

RUF: The systematic and aggressive use of the Israel-Iran conflict for IO, including mocking international ceasefire efforts, signifies RUF's persistent strategy of leveraging global crises for distraction and narrative control. The rapid pivot from escalation to "de-escalation/success" in the Israel-Iran narrative, followed by the explicit return of focus to Ukraine, demonstrates extreme agility. The reporting of RUF presence in the Sumy "buffer zone" indicates active pre-positioning or reconnaissance for a potential northern offensive. The high volume of UAVs used overnight (97 detected) demonstrates a continued commitment to mass drone attacks, likely aimed at saturating AD. RUF's use of aviation for direct support in tactical engagements (Poltavka area, KABs, FAB-1500) shows integrated combined arms operations. The emergence of heavily modified, improvised vehicles ("hedgehog") indicates a potential adaptation. The formal RUF claim regarding the Krokus perpetrator is a significant new tactical change in their IO, providing a direct, public pretext for potentially extreme retaliation against Ukraine. RUF claims of taking Novosergiivka and the detention of alleged saboteurs, coupled with rapid confessions, indicate a continued effort to project battlefield gains and justify actions. RUF IO is now explicitly trying to prolong the Israel-Iran conflict narrative by blaming Israel for assassinations/civilian casualties, indicating a continued attempt to keep global attention diverted from Ukraine. Continued RUF map updates on new axes (Krasnoarmeysk-Ulyanovka, Siversk-Ivano-Darivka) indicate sustained offensive planning and probing in new areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF: Continues to maintain situational awareness and defensive posture, with DeepState providing updated operational maps and UAF Air Force reporting successful intercepts of a high volume of RUF UAVs. UAF Naval Forces demonstrating effective asymmetric warfare capability against RUF naval assets. UAF artillery continues to be actively employed, targeting RUF concentrations. UAF continues active requests for drones, indicating sustained operational needs and adaptation. UAF DSHV continue training for combat readiness. UAF brigades adapting to new RUF threats (motorcycles) and actively fundraising. UAF drone units (Ivan Franko Group, BLACK SKY) demonstrating effective targeting of RUF logistics and personnel. UAF is proactively developing energy independence in Zaporizhzhia via solar panels, signaling resilience against infrastructure attacks. UAF counter-intelligence actively working against FSB agents. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

RUF continues to operate with a high volume of UAVs, indicating sustained production or supply. RUF sources soliciting donations for drones and equipment suggest some units may be relying on supplementary, non-state funding/supply for certain materiel. UAF drone strikes on RUF "roads of death" indicate ongoing efforts to disrupt RUF logistics in rear areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF (Sumy) expressing high demand for drones and associated funding indicates ongoing need. 110th Brigade actively fundraising for "anti-motorcycle" work, indicating specific equipment needs. Coordination with POW support groups indicates ongoing humanitarian needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

RUF: Highly effective C2 over its IO, demonstrating rapid, coordinated, and increasingly escalatory messaging. Their ability to immediately pivot from one narrative to another shows strong C2. Coordination observed between strategic IO and operational shaping. Active direct support from RUF aviation to ground units indicates effective tactical C2. The reported internal conflict within RUF (Kadyrovites killing military police chief), if verified, would indicate a localized C2 breakdown. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on C2 effectiveness, LOW CONFIDENCE on C2 breakdown within Kadyrovites).
UAF: Effective C2 in maintaining maritime domain awareness, issuing reports, providing general updates on enemy losses, providing detailed operational maps, and issuing timely air raid warnings and intercept statistics. Effective AD operations demonstrate robust C2. UAF artillery units, DSHV, medical battalion project, and drone units demonstrate effective C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

Ground Forces: UAF maintains a defensive posture across the front lines, actively repelling attacks and inflicting significant losses. DeepState map update indicates sustained active engagement. UAF is actively engaged in fortification efforts. Artillery units are actively supporting ground forces. DSHV units are conducting training to maintain readiness. "First Separate Medical Battalion" pilot project shows proactive focus on combat sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Naval Forces: UAF Naval Forces demonstrate offensive capability in the Black Sea, successfully destroying multiple RUF landing crafts with troops. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Air Defense: UAF AD remains active against persistent RUF aerial threats, reporting successful intercepts of a high volume of RUF UAVs (78/97, 38 Shaheds, 3 "Chernika-2"). UAF Air Force continues to issue timely air threat warnings. UAF AD remains vigilant against continued UAV movement in northern oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

Successes:
- Naval Strikes: UAF Naval Forces successfully destroyed multiple RUF landing crafts with troops off the coast of Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- UAV Interception: UAF Air Force successfully neutralized 78 of 97 RUF UAVs overnight, and Southern Defense Forces downed 38 Shaheds, demonstrating effective AD. New "Chernika-2" drones also intercepted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- DeepStrike: UAF drone strike on residential building in Krasnogorsk, Moscow Oblast, confirms continued deep strike capability. UAF Ivan Franko Group drone operators successfully targeted RUF logistics in rear areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Artillery Engagement: UAF BM-21 Grad MLRS successfully engaged RUF positions in Kharkiv Oblast. UAF "BLACK SKY" unit achieved effective liquidation of RUF personnel and equipment in Donbas using drone strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Localized Counter-Offensive: UAF liberated Andriyivka (Sumy Oblast) previously. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Previous Daily Report).
- Counter-Assassination/Counter-Intelligence: SBU successfully prevented multiple assassination attempts on high-level Ukrainian officials. SBU detained FSB agent guiding missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Energy Resilience: Zaporizhzhia Oblast is actively installing solar panels on critical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Setbacks:
- Civilian Casualties/Infrastructure Damage: RUF strikes resulted in civilian fatalities (3 including a child in Sumy) and injuries (6 in Sumy, 3 in Kharkiv), and damage in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, Kramatorsk, and Dnipro. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports).
- Alleged Positional Setbacks: RUF claims entry into Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast) and capture of Novosergiivka (DNR). These require urgent verification as they would constitute tactical setbacks. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claims).
- Alleged Abrams Destruction: RUF claims destruction of a UAF Abrams tank in Sumy Oblast. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

Continued need for AD systems capable of intercepting various RUF munitions, particularly given continued civilian targeting and the emergence of new drone types. Need for sustained international support for AD systems and munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
High demand for FPV and reconnaissance drones from Sumy region indicates a critical and ongoing need for drone supply. 110th Brigade fundraising for "anti-motorcycle" equipment highlights specific, evolving materiel needs. Coordination with POW support groups indicates ongoing humanitarian needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

Russian:
- Frontline Glorification/Claims: RUF channels continue to disseminate claims of tactical successes (e.g., Serebryanka entry, Novosergiivka capture, Krasnoarmeysk advances, Lancet/FAB-1500 strikes) and promote RUF military prowess. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Intensified International Diversion & Escalation (Israel-Iran), followed by Explicit Pivot: This remains the most significant and rapidly evolving aspect of RUF IO. RUF channels have pivoted from escalating the Israel-Iran conflict to claiming "historical success" and "cancellation of World War 3," then explicitly stating a return of focus to Ukraine. They continue to mock international diplomatic efforts and delegitimize Western leaders. RUF is now actively promoting claims of Israeli "war crimes" (killing scientists, striking residential areas) even after a ceasefire, attempting to further destabilize the global security environment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Historical Justification (22 JUN 1941): RUF channels continue to disseminate content linked to the 22 JUN 1941, overtly attempting to draw parallels with current events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Direct Blame for Krokus Attack: RUF's formal claim that the Russian Investigative Committee has identified the perpetrator of the Krokus attack is a critical escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Internal Security Claims/Sabotage: FSB claims of detaining 3 Russian citizens in Zaporizhzhia and discovery of booby-trapped caches near Selidovo are direct attempts to link Ukraine to terrorism in occupied areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Dehumanization/Demoralization (UAF Recruitment, Western Aid Failure): RUF continues to publish videos depicting forceful UAF military recruitment, aims to demoralize UAF soldiers/population, and discredits Western military aid. Claims of "Aidar" desertions and delegitimizing Zelenskyy also aim to degrade morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Domestic Mobilization/Support: RUF channels solicit donations for drones and equipment, appealing to the civilian population for military support. State media showcase civilian life and economic stability. Claims by Akhmat Spetsnaz commander and reports on internal legislative changes project significance and state control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Emerging Pridnestrovie Narrative: Rybar's post "Pridnestrovie on the verge" indicates a new potential focus for destabilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Ukrainian:
- Situational Awareness/Transparency: UAF General Staff and oblast administrations continue to report on civilian casualties and damage, demonstrating transparency. UAF Air Force reports successful UAV intercepts and air threat warnings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Rapid Global Contextualization: Ukrainian channels continue to report on the Israel-Iran conflict, often highlighting RUF's hypocrisy. RBK-Ukraine highlights upcoming NATO summit and Putin preparing for NATO attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Emotional Condemnation: Ukrainian channels express strong emotional condemnation of RUF actions, particularly those resulting in child fatalities. Daily minute of silence videos reinforce national mourning and resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Showcasing UAF Effectiveness: UAF brigades publish videos of artillery in action, training exercises, and successful drone strikes on RUF targets, demonstrating UAF capability. The destruction of RUF boats and interception of new drone types are publicized. Energy resilience initiatives highlight proactive approaches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

Ukrainian: Civilian fatalities, especially of a child, and persistent attacks will severely impact morale and increase public anger. Successful UAF naval strikes and high UAV interception rate can contribute to a sense of effectiveness and resilience. Air raid warnings maintain high stress levels. Calls for drones and fundraising suggest strong public engagement and a desire to contribute. Commemorative posts reinforce national unity. High morale observed in UAF training and medical initiatives. Strong public engagement in POW coordination efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian: Domestic audiences are being saturated with claims of battlefield successes, normalized views of the conflict, and a controlled narrative of global conflict. The pivot to claiming "success" in Israel-Iran aims to reinforce the narrative of Russia being a central, stabilizing player. Claims of UAF attacks on RF territory are used to justify RUF's war. The 22 JUN 1941 narrative reinforces historical justification. Appeals for public donations suggest belief in the cause. Formal accusation regarding Krokus will likely solidify domestic support for further aggressive actions. Narratives about internal security, anti-migration laws, and convicted "terrorists" aim to project stability and justify state control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

RUF's rapid and detailed amplification of the Israel-Iran conflict, and the subsequent pivot, is a direct, aggressive attempt to dominate the global information space and draw attention and resources away from Ukraine. Mockery of Trump's ceasefire claims indicates intent to undermine international mediation. The explicit declaration by a RUF channel of "No more news about Iran. We are returning to the Khokhols" signifies a calculated shift. The upcoming NATO summit is a key diplomatic event. RUF narrative seeking to discredit Western aid is a direct threat. Ukrainian media raising concerns about Putin preparing for NATO attack indicates an attempt to galvanize international attention. RUF's attempts to keep the Israel-Iran narrative alive by promoting Israeli "war crimes" after a ceasefire is a dangerous diplomatic maneuver aimed at global destabilization and deflecting attention from Ukraine. The emerging Pridnestrovie narrative suggests RUF may seek to open a new diplomatic/security crisis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

Sustained Attritional Operations on Ground with Intensified Precision Strikes on UAF Logistics/Force Generation, and a Massively Amplified Global Diversionary IO Campaign Coupled with Krokus Justification and Sabotage Claims, Preparing for a Northern Offensive: RUF will likely continue high-intensity ground assaults on the Donetsk and Luhansk axes, attempting to capitalize on claimed UAF withdrawals and attrit UAF forces, with continued efforts to capture localized strongpoints (e.g., Novosergiivka, Krasnoarmeysk-Ulyanovka). Concurrently, RUF will conduct focused precision strikes (ballistic missiles, KABs, UAVs, FPV drones, including newer variants like "Chernika-2" and FAB-1500) on UAF field ammunition depots, training centers, and increasingly, civilian targets in frontline and border regions (Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro), attempting to degrade UAF logistics, force generation, and civilian morale. RUF will continue to saturate UAF AD with high volumes of UAVs. RUF's IO will intensify its focus on Ukraine, explicitly stating the shift from global crises, and will heavily amplify its formal accusation regarding the Krokus City Hall perpetrator, and new claims of Ukrainian-linked sabotage in occupied territories, using these as direct, public justifications for escalated actions against Ukraine. RUF will continue to sow discord by promoting UAF desertion narratives. The continued push of the 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative, coupled with reports from the Sumy "buffer zone," indicates that RUF is likely in the final shaping phases for a major ground offensive on the Sumy and/or Kharkiv axes to open a new front within 24-48 hours. Domestic messaging will continue to project stability and military success, framing Russia as a global power while blaming Ukraine for attacks on RF territory. RUF IO will likely attempt to create a new "crisis" narrative around Pridnestrovie to further distract and pressure the West. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

Renewed Large-Scale Offensive on Sumy/Kharkiv Axes, Preceded by Saturation Strikes on AD/Logistics, While International Focus is Maintained on Fabricated "Terrorist Ukraine" Narratives and Dangerous Rhetoric, Under Cover of Krokus Retaliation: RUF, leveraging its existing force concentration and shaping operations, will initiate a major multi-axis ground offensive on the Sumy and/or Kharkiv axes, possibly coordinated with intensified pressure on the Donetsk/Luhansk axes. This offensive would be preceded by massed, multi-vector aerial strikes (ballistic, cruise, KAB, Shahed, and new drone types) designed to saturate UAF AD and degrade critical logistics and command nodes in preparation for the ground assault. This offensive would occur under the direct cover of intensified RUF IO focusing on Ukraine as a "terrorist state", leveraging the Krokus perpetrator claim and alleged sabotage in occupied territories as justification. RUF would also likely attempt to conduct a high-impact false-flag operation in Ukraine or a neighboring country (e.g., Moldova/Transnistria), which RUF would attribute to "Ukrainian terrorism" or fabricated "global war" scenarios, aiming to paralyze international decision-making and divert support away from Ukraine. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 240800Z JUN 25):
- RUF: Expect continued RUF artillery, KAB, UAV, FPV drone, and ballistic missile strikes across the front lines and border regions (Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro), with renewed claims of tactical gains. RUF will continue to dominate the information space with intensified focus on Ukraine, explicitly pivoting from global crises. Crucially, RUF IO will actively disseminate the formal accusation regarding the Krokus City Hall perpetrator and claims of Ukrainian-linked sabotage, likely linking them to Ukraine to justify future actions. RUF aviation will continue to support ground advances, including FAB-1500 use. Expect initial attempts to build a narrative around Pridnestrovie. RUF will continue to use the Israel-Iran developments for IO purposes, even post-ceasefire, by promoting further instability and blaming Israel.
- UAF Decision Point: Immediately verify RUF claims of UAF positional abandonment/setbacks and breakthroughs (Serebryanka, Novosergiivka) to assess tactical impact and counter false narratives. Maintain AD readiness, particularly for combined attacks and continued UAV/FPV drone/ballistic missile threats on urban centers and force generation sites (including new UAV groups on Sumy-Poltava axis and ballistic threats on Dnipro). Proactively monitor RUF IO channels for further escalation or new narratives regarding Krokus and sabotage claims, and the emerging Pridnestrovie narrative. Prepare immediate, evidence-based counter-messaging to debunk the Krokus perpetrator claim and sabotage claims as baseless pretexts. Address civilian casualties from RUF strikes transparently, using specifics and condemning the targeting of non-combatants. Reinforce positions on active axes and re-assess northern threat.
Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
- RUF: RUF will likely attempt to maintain or increase pressure on existing ground axes, potentially continuing precision strikes on UAF logistics and civilian targets. Expect continued shaping operations for a northern offensive (Sumy/Kharkiv axes), and potential initiation of this offensive. RUF will continue to exploit UAF deep strikes on RF territory for domestic justification, now strongly linking them to the Krokus City Hall attack and claimed sabotage as justification for "retaliation." Expect the Pridnestrovie narrative to gain traction. RUF will likely continue its IO efforts to delegitimize the Israel-Iran ceasefire and project continued global instability.
- UAF Decision Point: Maintain high vigilance for a potential escalation of ground operations, especially on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, and saturation strikes against UAF rear areas and urban centers. Continue to aggressively and pre-emptively counter RUF's information war, specifically by exposing their deliberate exploitation of the Krokus attack and sabotage claims as false-flag pretexts for aggression. Most critically, prepare a robust and immediate response to RUF's Krokus perpetrator claim and sabotage claims, debunking them with verifiable evidence and highlighting them as blatant false-flags for further aggression. Consistently highlight the human cost of Russia's aggression in Ukraine, using verified BDA and emphasizing war crimes against civilians and children. Prepare for rapid response to an offensive on northern axes and continue to seek international support at events like the NATO Summit (including a potential meeting with Trump). Proactively counter any emerging RUF narratives regarding Pridnestrovie with factual information.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR to Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast), Novosergiivka (DNR), and the "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast to immediately verify RUF claims of UAF positional setbacks and RUF presence/intent. This is critical for accurate battlefield assessment and countering false narratives.
IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Intensify OSINT and SIGINT on RUF and pro-RUF channels to monitor their explicit shift in IO focus back to Ukraine, and the continued amplification of the formal Krokus accusation and sabotage claims. Identify key narrative amplifiers and prepare rapid counter-messaging. This Krokus claim and sabotage allegations are critical precursors to further RUF aggression. Monitor the emerging "Pridnestrovie on the verge" narrative.
HIGH: Conduct urgent GEOINT and IMINT analysis of the drone attack in Sumy Oblast and artillery/FPV drone/KAB/FAB-1500 attacks in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipro Oblasts, to confirm munition types (including "Chernika-2" and FAB-1500) and provide evidence of war crimes.
HIGH: Prioritize HUMINT and OSINT collection on RUF logistics chains targeting ammunition depots, training centers, and any new force concentrations (especially in Sumy/Kharkiv directions) to inform UAF targeting and force protection.
HIGH: Monitor RUF air traffic restrictions in RF (Tambov, Penza, Saratov airports) to assess any correlation with UAF deep strike activities or internal security concerns, providing potential targets or indicators of RUF vulnerabilities.
HIGH: Verify the report of Kadyrovites killing the Suji military police chief. If true, exploit this for IO and assess its impact on RUF cohesion and discipline.
HIGH: Assess the operational impact of novel RUF vehicle modifications ("hedgehog with skewers") to determine countermeasures.
MEDIUM: Investigate the new "Chernika-2" drone technology. Conduct technical intelligence analysis if possible to determine its capabilities and potential for mass deployment by RUF.
MEDIUM: Collect and analyze evidence of RUF drone operations impacting civilian areas, particularly in Sumy and Krasnogorsk, to support allegations of war crimes.
HIGH: Continue to identify and target RUF logistics lines and personnel in rear areas, leveraging successful drone operations like those by Ivan Franko Group.
HIGH: Strengthen counter-intelligence efforts against RUF agents (e.g., SBU's detention of the FSB agent in Dnipro), especially those involved in targeting.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

URGENT: Maintain heightened AD readiness across all major urban centers, especially Kharkiv, Sumy, Kyiv, Dnipro, Kramatorsk, and Zaporizhzhia, against continued UAV, ballistic missile, KAB, and FPV drone threats. Ensure rapid re-engagement capabilities and layered defense, anticipating combined-arms strikes, including those using newer drone variants. Prioritize protection of force generation assets (training centers, barracks) and critical infrastructure.
URGENT: Review and enhance force protection measures for all UAF ammunition depots, training centers, and critical civilian infrastructure, emphasizing dispersion, hardened shelters, and active deception measures, given reported RUF targeting of such sites and ongoing terror strikes.
HIGH: Advise ground forces on all active fronts to maintain extreme vigilance against precision artillery strikes, KABs, and FPV drones, particularly in areas with known concentrations of UAF assets or logistics. Special attention to countering RUF "anti-motorcycle" tactics.
HIGH: Continue efforts to enhance energy resilience in frontline oblasts like Zaporizhzhia through initiatives like solar panel installation.

6.3. Ground Forces:

IMMEDIATE: Confirm or deny RUF claims of UAF positional setbacks near Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast) and Novosergiivka (DNR) and adjust defensive posture accordingly. If confirmed, assess the tactical implications and plan for immediate counter-actions or reinforcement.
URGENT: Continue to reinforce defensive positions and prepare for potential intensified ground assaults on the Donetsk and Luhansk axes (Pokrovsk-Siversk, Krasnoarmeysk-Ulyanovka, Siversk-Ivano-Darivka).
URGENT: Maintain high vigilance for potential large-scale ground offensive maneuvers on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, given the persistent RUF force posture and ongoing shaping operations. Ensure reserves are positioned for rapid deployment to these axes.
HIGH: Continue effective employment of artillery assets (e.g., BM-21 Grad) for counter-battery fire and support of defensive operations.
HIGH: Rapidly implement countermeasures and training for RUF "anti-motorcycle" tactics, drawing on 110th Brigade's initiatives.
HIGH: Leverage successful UAF drone operations (BLACK SKY unit) to target RUF personnel and equipment in tactical areas.
HIGH: Continue basic military training with a focus on trench and urban combat as evidenced in Kharkiv Oblast.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Issue rapid, verifiable counter-narratives to RUF claims of UAF positional setbacks and successful breakthroughs. Provide transparent, evidence-based updates on UAF defensive operations and enemy losses.
URGENT: Launch a globally coordinated IO campaign to expose Russia's deliberate and opportunistic exploitation of the Israel-Iran conflict, and its explicit pivot back to Ukraine. Highlight how Russia is using global crises to divert international attention from its war in Ukraine, undermine global support, and advance its own geopolitical agenda. Emphasize that such diversion directly benefits Russia's continued aggression. Expose RUF's attempts to falsely blame Israel for continued regional destabilization and human rights abuses.
IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prepare and execute a robust, rapid, evidence-based counter-narrative campaign to debunk Russia's formal accusation regarding the Krokus City Hall perpetrator and the recent FSB claims of sabotage in Zaporizhzhia and the Selidovo cache. Proactively provide evidence of Russian false-flag operations and highlight these claims as dangerous, fabricated pretexts for escalated aggression against Ukraine.
HIGH: Engage with international partners at the NATO Summit and other forums (including any potential meeting with Trump) to ensure continued focus on Ukraine, despite other global crises. Provide timely, actionable intelligence on Russia's multi-domain aggression to underpin diplomatic efforts. Proactively communicate the reality of RUF terror tactics against Ukrainian civilians, using specific examples like the child fatality in Sumy and the Kramatorsk attack.
HIGH: Proactively counter the 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative being pushed by RUF. Reframe this historical date as a reminder of unprovoked aggression and the need for strong defense, drawing parallels to current RUF actions, rather than allowing RUF to manipulate it for its own agenda.
HIGH: Publicize successful UAF deep strikes on RF territory (e.g., Krasnogorsk drone strike, Rostov facility) and successful naval engagements to demonstrate UAF capability and resilience. Counter RUF narratives seeking to discredit Western military aid and those promoting UAF desertion.
HIGH: Proactively address and debunk any emerging RUF narratives regarding Pridnestrovie to prevent a new front of destabilization.