Sitrep 2025-06-24 07:38:10

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 240730Z JUN 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

Donetsk Oblast: RUF (MoD Russia) claims destruction of UAF Mastiff armored vehicle near Yalta (DPR) with Lancet loitering munition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF claim with video). WarGonzo map indicates engagements on the Pokrovsk axis (Karlivka, Yasnobrodivka, Nevelske), Kramatorsk axis (Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka), Kurakhove axis (Heorhiivka, Maksymilyanivka, Krasnohorivka), and Velyka Novosilka axis (Urozhaine). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF source map, consistent with previous reporting). RBK-Ukraine reports RUF massed drone attack on Kramatorsk with "Geranium-2" (Shahed) drones overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). "Сливочный каприз" (RUF source) claims raising of Russian flag over Novosergiivka (DNR), supported by video showing damaged buildings and drone strikes. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, with supporting video of flag raising). FSB claims discovery of a booby-trapped weapons cache near Selidovo. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF source, FSB video). New: "Сливочный каприз" posts photo map indicating active engagements on the Krasnoarmeysk - Ulyanovka (Malinovka) axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source map). Operatyvnyi ZSU posts video of UAF "BLACK SKY" unit effectively liquidating RUF personnel in Donbas with drone strikes on positions, vehicles, and crew-served weapons. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source video).
Luhansk Oblast: WarGonzo map indicates engagements on the Siversk axis (Rozdolivka, Bilohorivka). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF source map). "Сливочный каприз" posts photo map indicating activity between Siversk and Ivano-Darivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source map).
Sumy Oblast: RUF drone attack on a village resulted in 3 fatalities, including an 8-year-old child, and 6 injuries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – Tsapliyenko video, Sever.Realii). Poddubny (ZOV edition) reports an "exclusive" from the "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast with photos, indicating RUF presence or probing near the border. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF source, photo evidence). UAF source (Sternenko) reports 43 requests for 1513 drones and 27M UAH from Sumy region, indicating high demand for ISR and combat drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). Ukrainian Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). New: UAF Air Force reports a group of UAVs in Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). Colonelcassad posts video claiming destruction of a UAF Abrams tank by Lancet in Sumy Oblast. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified, Abrams presence in Sumy is unconfirmed by UAF).
Kharkiv Oblast: RUF launched strikes on Kharkiv city and 5 settlements within the past day, resulting in 3 injured. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – Oleh Syniehubov, Kharkiv ODA, Sever.Realii). WarGonzo map indicates engagements on the Kharkiv axis (Vovchansk). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF source map). UAF footage (Olexiy Biloshitskyi) shows UAF BM-21 Grad MLRS firing a salvo at RUF positions in tree lines, indicating active UAF artillery response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). New: "Два майора" posts video from Kupyansk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source video).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Zaporizhzhia OVA posts video for daily 0900 tribute, indicating continued civilian resilience/commemoration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). FSB claims detention of three Russians in Zaporizhzhia Oblast suspected of attempting sabotage on gas distribution network in Berdyansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS, FSB video, WarGonzo, «Зона СВО»). New: "Дневник Десантника" posts video claiming RF Aerospace Forces destroyed UAF temporary deployment points (PVD) with FAB-1500 bombs on the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source video, but target details unverified). UAF Zaporizhzhia OVA issues missile threat warning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). UAF Air Force reports missile danger in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). Zaporizhzhia OVA posts video about installing solar panels on schools and hospitals for energy independence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolskyi Raion): RUF attacked Nikopol, Marhanetska, and Myrivska communities with artillery and FPV drones overnight and morning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF OВА). TASS reports RUF sources claiming foreign mercenaries near Yanvarskoye (Dnipropetrovsk/DPR border) attempting to flee due to powerful Russian strikes. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified).
Kyiv Oblast: Search and rescue operations completed in Shevchenkivskyi Raion; 9 fatalities confirmed due to RUF attack in previous reporting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Previous Daily Report). Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) posts photo honoring fallen Kyiv defenders, indicating ongoing solemn ceremonies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). «АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА» (RUF source) claims massive strike on Kyiv Oblast. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified).
Odesa Oblast: Affected by RUF missile/drone attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Previous Daily Report). Southern Defense Forces report 38 Shahed-131/136 UAVs destroyed in their operational zone in the past day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source).
Kherson Oblast: Ukrainian Naval Forces (VMS ZSU) destroyed a RUF landing craft with troops along the western coast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RBK-Ukraine/Operational ZSU video, UAF claim). Tsapliyenko_Ukraine Fights posts video of UAF destroying RUF boat with troops moving along Dnipro's right bank in Kherson. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF video).
RF Territory (General): RUF MoD claims 20 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over RF territory overnight. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim). ASTRA and Sever.Realii confirm drone strike on residential building in Krasnogorsk, Moscow Oblast, with casualties reported. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Independent RF/OSINT sources). Poddubny (ZOV edition) posts tactical analysis of damaged armored vehicles and infrastructure, likely from UAF deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). Igor Artamonov (RF governor) issues "Attention!" notice regarding UAV threat in Usmano and Dobrynsky districts (Lipetsk Oblast). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). Brianskiy Oblast Governor Bogomaz claims over 500 houses destroyed since start of war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - ASTRA). Colonelcassad posts video claiming "Rubicon" operations in Kursk direction, showing destruction of vehicles and comms tower. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). New: TASS reports a pregnant woman in Krasnogorsk, Moscow Oblast, is safe after a UAV attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS). Butusov Plus posts video of UAF Ivan Franko Group drone operators successfully targeting RUF logistics ("roads of death") in rear areas, destroying cargo/light vehicles and armored vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source video).
Lipetsk Oblast, RF: Temporary restrictions on air traffic at Tambov airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – TASS). Temporary restrictions also for Penza and Saratov airports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Rosaviatsiya via ASTRA/TASS).
Black Sea/Azov Sea: Ukrainian Naval Forces (VMS ZSU) continue to issue maritime situation reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF CyberBoroshno posts video of Bayraktar TB2 destroying RUF boat with landing party. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF video). Sternenko posts video claiming Southern Defense Forces shot down 3 new "Chernika-2" kamikaze drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF video). New: Sternenko posts video showing a downed drone wing with Ukrainian defiant text. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source video).
Global - Middle East (Israel/Iran): Israel confirms ceasefire with Iran and claims all military objectives met. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS/Netanyahu's office via RBK-Ukraine/Operational Z/ASTRA). Rybar provides commentary on "historical success, all goals achieved." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). Operativny ZSU reports Patriot battery launched multiple interceptors against Iranian missiles targeting Al Udeid airbase in Qatar. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). Operativny ZSU confirms Israel's agreement to Trump's ceasefire proposal with Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). Alex Parker Returns (RUF source) quotes Netanyahu's office claiming Israel achieved all military objectives, eliminating nuclear and missile threats, gaining air control over Tehran, damaging Iranian military leadership, and destroying dozens of government targets. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF source quoting Israeli claims, likely exaggerated by RUF). Alex Parker Returns also quotes Trump stating the Israel-Iran ceasefire is "indefinite and will last forever." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source quoting Trump). New: Alex Parker Returns claims Israeli attack killed Iranian nuclear scientist Mohammad Reza Sedighi on 24 JUN, before ceasefire, and that he is the 18th scientist killed by Israel. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF source claim, unverified). TASS reports Israel attacked 12 targets in Tehran this morning, mostly residential areas, according to Iranian governor. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF source quoting Iranian claims, likely exaggerated). Alex Parker Returns posts photo of destruction in Beer Sheva, claiming Iran struck a high-rise, causing 4 fatalities. Quotes Israeli opposition figure Avigdor Lieberman criticizing ceasefire, predicting new war. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF source, unverified claims by Iranian/Israeli opposition). TASS reports Israeli Army recorded new rocket launches from Iran, despite ceasefire. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF source quoting Israeli Army, unverified). RBK-Ukraine reports Israel recorded rocket launches from Iran despite ceasefire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source, corroborating TASS). "Военкор Котенок" posts video with an "international expert" discussing Israel-Iran and Pakistan, stating "Ironing out Iran. Pakistan is next." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source, promoting escalation narrative).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

No significant changes to weather or environmental factors affecting operations in Ukraine.
Nighttime conditions observed in video footage of Sumy drone attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF):
- Ground Forces: UAF maintains defensive posture across front lines. DeepState map updated, indicating ongoing engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – DeepState map). UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" shares footage of D-30 artillery in action, indicating active use of towed artillery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). UAF (GenStaff) posts photo of Ukrainian soldiers, indicating continued morale/activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). 25th Separate Airborne Brigade of the UAF DSHV shares video of obstacle course training, indicating continued readiness and training. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). UAF General Staff shares photos/video of the "First Separate Medical Battalion" pilot project, indicating focus on medical support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). UAF sources (Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц") continue to report RUF losses, implying continued UAF defensive success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). RBK-Ukraine reports 110th Brigade raising 1M UAH for "anti-motorcycle" work, indicating adaptation to RUF tactical vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). New: Operatyvnyi ZSU posts video of UAF "BLACK SKY" unit drone strikes successfully eliminating RUF personnel and equipment in Donbas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source video). Butusov Plus posts video of UAF Ivan Franko Group drone operators successfully targeting RUF logistics in rear areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source video). UAF Coordination Staff for POWs posts about online meeting with families of 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source).
- Air Defense (AD): UAF Air Force reports 78/97 RUF UAVs neutralized overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – Operational ZSU photo, ASTRA photo). UAF Air Force reports multiple groups of UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast moving southwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). Poltava Oblast "all clear" for air threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). RBK-Ukraine reports Shahed threat for Chernihiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). Southern Defense Forces report 38 Shahed-131/136 UAVs destroyed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). Sternenko claims 3 new "Chernika-2" kamikaze drones shot down. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). New: UAF Air Force reports UAV group in Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). UAF Air Force reports missile danger in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). Sternenko posts image of downed drone wing with defiant Ukrainian text. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source).
- Naval Forces: UAF Naval Forces successfully destroyed a RUF landing craft with troops off the western coast of Kherson. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RBK-Ukraine/Operational ZSU video). Tsapliyenko and CyberBoroshno videos confirm destruction of RUF boats with landing parties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF sources).
Russian Forces (RUF):
- Ground Operations: RUF claims entry into Serebryanka (DPR). WarGonzo maps show continued offensive pressure across multiple axes, including Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, Siversk, and Vovchansk. (LOW CONFIDENCE on Serebryanka claim, HIGH CONFIDENCE on WarGonzo map indicating active engagements). Poddubny (ZOV edition) reports RUF presence in a "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF source, photo). "Воин DV" (RUF source) posts video of Russian aviation delivering "gifts" to UAF 110th Territorial Defense Brigade near Poltavka, indicating active RUF close air support/interdiction. Colonelcassad shares video of T-80BVM tank crew destroying UAF strongholds on Krasnoarmeysk direction, suggesting localized RUF gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF sources). Poddubny posts tactical analysis of damaged armored vehicles and infrastructure, indicating recent RUF damage assessment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). Butusov Plus posts video of a heavily modified vehicle ("hedgehog with skewers") described as a "new analogovnet from the Russian military-industrial complex," indicating novel, likely improvised, vehicle modifications. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). Fighterbomber (RUF source) posts video of Russian BMP with soldiers moving on a dirt road, implying active ground movement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF video). MoD Russia posts Lancet strike video claiming destruction of UAF Mastiff near Yalta (DPR). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF video). "Сливочный каприз" (RUF source) claims Russian flag raised over Novosergiivka (DNR) with drone footage of strikes. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim with video). New: "Дневник Десантника" posts video claiming RF Aerospace Forces destroyed UAF PVDs with FAB-1500 bombs on Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source video). "Два майора" posts video from Kupyansk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source video). "Сливочный каприз" posts photo map indicating active engagements on Krasnoarmeysk - Ulyanovka (Malinovka) axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source map). "Сливочный каприз" posts photo map indicating activity between Siversk and Ivano-Darivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source map). "Сливочный каприз" posts video showing drone footage of artillery/mortar fire in a wooded area, targeting fortified positions or trench systems, with TM-62 mentioned and 123rd Motor Rifle Brigade emblem shown. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source video). Colonelcassad posts video claiming a UAF Abrams tank destroyed by Lancet in Sumy Oblast. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim).
- Artillery/Air Strikes: RUF continues to employ indirect fire and UAVs, evidenced by civilian casualties in Sumy and Kharkiv, and successful precision strike on a UAF training center in Sumy in previous reporting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF reports, video evidence). RUF drone attack confirmed on residential building in Krasnogorsk, Moscow Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Independent RF/OSINT sources). RUF massed drone attack on Kramatorsk (Donetsk Oblast) reported. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). Ukrainian Air Force reports KAB launches by RUF tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). «АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА» (RUF source) claims massive strike on Kyiv Oblast. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified). New: "Дневник Десантника" posts video claiming RF Aerospace Forces destroyed UAF PVDs with FAB-1500 bombs on Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source video). TASS reports pregnant woman in Krasnogorsk, Moscow Oblast, is safe after UAV attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS). "Сливочный каприз" posts video showing drone footage of artillery/mortar fire targeting fortified positions or trench systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source video).
- Air Defense (AD): RUF MoD claims 20 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions overnight. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim). ASTRA and Sever.Realii corroborate 20 UAV intercepts over RF territory, with one hitting a residential building in Moscow Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Independent RF/OSINT sources).
- Information Operations (IO):
  - Frontline Claims: TASS reports RUF advances. WarGonzo provides a "Frontline summary for the morning of 24.06.2025" with detailed maps. (LOW CONFIDENCE on specific claims, HIGH CONFIDENCE on WarGonzo as a reliable RUF information source). "Воин DV" and Colonelcassad disseminate videos promoting RUF military successes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF sources). Fighterbomber posts video "Let's start the day with good news," showing BMP movement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). "Сливочный каприз" claims capture of Novosergiivka. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF source). New: "Дневник Десантника" posts FAB-1500 strike video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). "Два майора" posts Kupyansk direction video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). "Сливочный каприз" posts new map updates on Krasnoarmeysk-Ulyanovka and Siversk-Ivano-Darivka axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source maps). Colonelcassad posts video claiming UAF Abrams tank destroyed by Lancet. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim).
  - International Diversion & Escalation: RUF-aligned channels (TASS, Rybar, Basurin o Glavnom, Colonelcassad, Opera Z) continue extensive reporting on the Israel-Iran conflict, with conflicting information on a ceasefire. They mock Trump's ceasefire claims and amplify Iranian reports of attacks on Israeli targets (Haifa, Ramat David). Rybar and Kotsnews now claim "World War 3 is cancelled" and "historical success, all goals achieved" after Israel agrees to ceasefire, indicating rapid narrative shift to claim "stabilization" while also mocking Trump's initial claims. Basurin o Glavnom posts video mocking Trump for promising to end 2 wars but now there are 3, indicating continued RUF effort to delegitimize Western leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF sources). Alex Parker Returns quotes Netanyahu's office claiming Israeli military objectives met in Iran, and Trump on "indefinite ceasefire." Alex Parker Returns explicitly states "No more news about Iran. We are returning to the Khokhols." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF sources, showing immediate pivot). Kotsnews also comments on "Trump's priorities and NATO summit." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). New: Alex Parker Returns claims Israeli strike killed Iranian scientist before ceasefire and blames Israel for residential strikes in Tehran and Beer Sheva. TASS quotes Iranian governor on Tehran strikes, Israeli Army on new rocket launches. "Военкор Котенок" promotes escalation ("Ironing out Iran. Pakistan is next"). (LOW CONFIDENCE on specific claims, HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF intent to exploit/escalate this conflict).
  - Domestic Resilience/Justification: Basurin o Glavnom continues to push "Day in History" posts and content aimed at domestic morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Igor Artamonov (RF governor) issues "Attention!" notice, likely related to drone threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RUF source) solicits donations for drones and equipment for paratroopers, indicating ongoing resource needs and public engagement for RUF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). Dnevnik Desantnika claims Russian Investigative Committee completed Krokus investigation and named the perpetrator. This is a critical development for RUF's narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). TASS reports Apti Alaudinov (Akhmat Spetsnaz commander) claims SBU considers Akhmat fighters priority targets, aiming to project significance and danger. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). TASS reports FSB detained 3 Russians in Zaporizhzhia for sabotage, who "confessed and repented." This is used to frame UAF as supporting terrorism within RF-occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS, FSB video, WarGonzo, «Зона СВО»). "Два майора" is collecting donations for the Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). "Новости Москвы" posts about urban development (monorail area), indicating a focus on domestic civilian life amidst conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). "Глеб Никитин" posts about a job fair in Nizhny Novgorod. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). "Старше Эдды" promotes MBA programs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). New: TASS reports Kabmin RF supported toughening punishment for not yielding to special vehicles with flashers, indicating internal control strengthening. TASS reports new laws on illegal migration are working, highlighting domestic security focus. ASTRA reports Rostov-on-Don convicted someone for attempting assassination on "head" of annexed Crimea, reinforcing "terrorist Ukraine" narrative.
  - Dehumanization/Terror Normalization: Continued civilian casualties from RUF strikes in Sumy and Kharkiv underscore RUF's ongoing terror tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad continues to show controversial UAF recruitment videos, aiming to demoralize. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF source "Shef Hayabusa" reports Kadyrovites killed Suji military police chief for uncovering looting, suggesting internal RUF discipline issues or factional violence. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - UAF source, unverified by other means). TASS reports French ex-officer Moreau claims most French military equipment provided to Ukraine is outdated/ineffective, aiming to undermine Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). "Операция Z" posts a claimed UAF combatant criticizing "political tasks" in Kursk direction, likely aiming to sow discord/demoralize UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). "Два майора" posts video titled "Spy in your pocket," likely related to digital security/surveillance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). New: TASS reports mobilized "Aidar" (UAF, labeled terrorist by RF) Ukrainians abandoned on Sumy direction want to desert, from Russian security forces. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF propaganda aimed at UAF morale). Opera Z posts photo of Zelenskyy with caption "I must remain president until the end of the war," aiming to delegitimize him. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source).
  - Pridnestrovie narrative: Rybar posts a photo with caption "Pridnestrovie on the verge," indicating a potential attempt to generate a new narrative or crisis in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

CRITICAL: Immediate and independent verification of RUF claims regarding entry into Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast) and Novosergiivka (DNR). Assess the impact on UAF defensive lines. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Independent verification and assessment of the tactical significance of RUF presence in the "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast. Determine the intent (reconnaissance, forward positioning, defensive screen). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, HUMINT, SIGINT).
HIGH: Conduct comprehensive BDA on the drone attack in Sumy Oblast and artillery/FPV drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. Verify munition types and specific targets, especially the new "Chernika-2" drones. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA teams, IMINT, OSINT).
HIGH: Monitor RUF air traffic restrictions in RF (Tambov, Penza, Saratov airports) to assess any correlation with UAF deep strike activities or internal security concerns. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
HIGH: Verify the report of Kadyrovites killing the Suji military police chief. Assess if this indicates significant internal discipline issues, factionalism, or a deliberate elimination of an anti-corruption figure within RUF. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT).
CRITICAL: Obtain specific details and independent verification of the Russian Investigative Committee's claim of identifying the "perpetrator" of the Krokus City Hall attack. This is a major IO development and will inform RUF's future actions. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Assess the operational impact of novel RUF vehicle modifications ("hedgehog with skewers"). Determine the intended purpose (e.g., anti-drone, anti-personnel, psychological warfare) and evaluate its effectiveness. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
MEDIUM: Verify RUF claim of foreign mercenaries fleeing near Yanvarskoye. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT).
MEDIUM: Investigate the "Chernika-2" drone claims by UAF Southern Defense Forces. Assess its capabilities and potential for mass production by RUF. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, TECHINT).
LOW: Verify the RUF claim of UAF Abrams tank destruction in Sumy Oblast. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
HIGH: Monitor RUF narrative surrounding Pridnestrovie. Assess if this is a precursor to an information operation or military escalation in the region. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

Ground Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate capability for high-intensity, attritional ground assaults across multiple axes (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv). Claims of entry into Serebryanka and Novosergiivka, if verified, would indicate continued localized advances. The reported RUF presence in the Sumy "buffer zone" suggests active shaping operations on the northern front. RUF aviation continues to provide close air support and interdiction. RUF is also demonstrating a capacity for improvised, unconventional vehicle modifications. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on capability, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on specific claims). FAB-1500 usage on PVDs indicates precision large-yield strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Artillery/Air Capabilities: RUF maintains significant capability for effective artillery, KAB, and UAV strikes against UAF positions and civilian targets, as evidenced by casualties in Sumy and Kharkiv, and the extensive multi-wave attacks reported previously. The high volume of RUF UAVs (97 detected, 78 neutralized, 38 in Southern zone) demonstrates continued mass drone employment for reconnaissance and strike. The massed "Geranium-2" drone attack on Kramatorsk signifies RUF's continued intent to overwhelm UAF AD in key operational areas. Continued KAB launches on Sumy Oblast show intent to degrade defenses and logistics in the northern direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF's reported drone strike in Moscow Oblast indicates ongoing UAF deep strike capability, forcing RUF to dedicate AD resources to homeland defense. Continued missile launches, even after reported ceasefires in other conflicts, show RUF's sustained strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Naval Capabilities: RUF maintains naval presence in Black Sea, but is vulnerable to UAF asymmetric attacks, as demonstrated by the destruction of landing crafts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF maintains its highly adaptive and multi-pronged IO approach. The immediate and extensive reporting on the Israel-Iran conflict, with conflicting ceasefire claims and amplification of Iranian reports of attacks on Israeli targets, demonstrates a sophisticated, real-time ability to exploit and amplify global crises to divert attention from Ukraine. The rapid shift to claiming the "cancellation of World War 3" and "historical success" in the Israel-Iran conflict shows extreme agility in narrative control, now explicitly stating a return of focus to Ukraine. The formal claim of identifying the Krokus City Hall perpetrator is a critical escalation in RUF's pretext-building for further actions against Ukraine. The continued push of the 22 JUN historical narrative indicates a deliberate shaping operation for further large-scale aggression. RUF is actively using domestic channels to solicit donations for military equipment, indicating a decentralized, citizen-involved sustainment model for some units. RUF also continues efforts to undermine international support by discrediting Western military aid and portraying UAF as supporting sabotage. New: RUF has escalated its false-flag/provocation narratives by explicitly blaming Israel for targeted assassinations and civilian casualties, even after a ceasefire. The use of "Pridnestrovie on the verge" suggests an emerging new narrative for potential escalation in Moldova/Transnistria. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Intentions: RUF intends to:
- Sustain Offensive Pressure: Maintain ground and indirect fire pressure on key axes (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv), seeking operational breakthroughs and attriting UAF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Open New Fronts: Continue shaping operations and force posturing for a potential major ground offensive on the Sumy and/or Kharkiv axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Maximize Global Distraction & De-legitimize Ukraine: Continuously amplify and distort international events (Israel-Iran conflict) to divert global attention from Ukraine, erode international support, and increasingly position Russia as a critical player in a rapidly destabilizing world. This includes mocking international peace efforts and leveraging fabricated narratives about global conflicts, now shifting to claim "stabilization" under their narrative control. The explicit pivot back to Ukraine ("return to the Khokhols") indicates they believe the distraction has served its purpose. New: RUF seeks to further destabilize the global security environment by promoting narratives of continued conflict in the Middle East even after ceasefires, demonstrating a desire to maintain a volatile international climate for its own strategic benefit. The mention of Pridnestrovie indicates an intent to open a new geopolitical/military pressure point. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Degrade UAF Morale and Capabilities: Through continued terror strikes against civilians and infrastructure, particularly with drones, ballistic missiles, and artillery. This includes targeting force generation capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Project Domestic Stability & Justify Aggression: Continues to highlight economic resilience amidst sanctions and use attacks on RF territory to reinforce domestic support and justify escalation, while also leveraging public support for military financing. The formal claim regarding the Krokus perpetrator directly serves this purpose and is a powerful internal justification for escalated actions. The FSB claims of apprehending saboteurs in Zaporizhzhia aim to reinforce the narrative of Ukraine as a terrorist-supporting entity. New: Internal security legislation (traffic laws, migration) also serves to project order and control domestically amidst conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

RUF: The systematic and aggressive use of the Israel-Iran conflict for IO, including mocking international ceasefire efforts, signifies RUF's persistent strategy of leveraging global crises for distraction and narrative control. The rapid pivot from escalation to "de-escalation/success" in the Israel-Iran narrative, followed by the explicit return of focus to Ukraine, demonstrates extreme agility. The reporting of RUF presence in the Sumy "buffer zone" indicates active pre-positioning or reconnaissance for a potential northern offensive. The high volume of UAVs used overnight (97 detected, 38 downed in Southern zone) demonstrates a continued commitment to mass drone attacks, likely aimed at saturating AD. RUF's use of aviation for direct support in tactical engagements (Poltavka area, KABs on Sumy) shows integrated combined arms operations. The reporting of drone strikes on RF territory, acknowledged by RUF-affiliated channels, highlights the ongoing UAF deep strike campaign, forcing RUF to divert AD assets or accept internal vulnerabilities. The emergence of heavily modified, improvised vehicles ("hedgehog") indicates a potential adaptation to specific threats or a means to improve survivability/offensive capability. The formal RUF claim regarding the Krokus perpetrator is a significant new tactical change in their IO, providing a direct, public pretext for potentially extreme retaliation against Ukraine. RUF claims of taking Novosergiivka and the detention of alleged saboteurs in Zaporizhzhia, coupled with rapid confessions, indicate a continued effort to project battlefield gains and justify actions. New: RUF IO is now explicitly trying to prolong the Israel-Iran conflict narrative by blaming Israel for assassinations/civilian casualties, indicating a continued attempt to keep global attention diverted from Ukraine. The focus on FAB-1500 use suggests an emphasis on high-yield, precision strikes for PVDs. Continued RUF map updates on new axes (Krasnoarmeysk-Ulyanovka, Siversk-Ivano-Darivka) indicate sustained offensive planning and probing in new areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF: Continues to maintain situational awareness and defensive posture, with DeepState providing updated operational maps and UAF Air Force reporting successful intercepts of a high volume of RUF UAVs. UAF Naval Forces demonstrating effective asymmetric warfare capability against RUF naval assets. UAF artillery continues to be actively employed, targeting RUF concentrations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF continues active requests for drones, indicating sustained operational needs and adaptation to modern warfare. UAF DSHV continue training for combat readiness. UAF continues to demonstrate effective maritime defense against RUF landing attempts, as evidenced by multiple videos of boat destructions. UAF brigades (110th) adapting to new RUF threats (motorcycles) and actively fundraising. New: UAF drone units (Ivan Franko Group, BLACK SKY) demonstrating effective targeting of RUF logistics and personnel in deep rear and frontline areas respectively. UAF is proactively developing energy independence in Zaporizhzhia via solar panels, signaling resilience against infrastructure attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

No new significant information regarding overall RUF or UAF logistics and sustainment status. RUF continues to operate with a high volume of UAVs, indicating sustained production or supply. RUF sources soliciting donations for drones and equipment suggest some units may be relying on supplementary, non-state funding/supply for certain materiel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF (Sumy) expressing high demand for drones and associated funding indicates ongoing need for specific types of equipment. 110th Brigade actively fundraising for "anti-motorcycle" work, indicating specific equipment needs. New: UAF drone strikes on RUF "roads of death" indicate ongoing efforts to disrupt RUF logistics in rear areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

RUF: Highly effective C2 over its IO, demonstrating rapid, coordinated, and increasingly escalatory messaging across multiple channels to leverage global events. Their ability to immediately pivot from one narrative to another (e.g., from Trump's ceasefire claims to confirmed missile launches and then mocking the ceasefire/claiming success, and then explicitly shifting focus back to Ukraine) shows strong C2. Coordination observed between strategic IO (22 JUN narrative, Krokus claim, FSB detentions, new Pridnestrovie narrative) and operational shaping (Sumy buffer zone report, claims of advances). Active direct support from RUF aviation to ground units (Poltavka, KABs, FAB-1500) indicates effective tactical C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The reported internal conflict within RUF (Kadyrovites killing military police chief) would, if verified, indicate a localized C2 breakdown or lack of discipline within certain units. (LOW CONFIDENCE on C2 breakdown, HIGH on report).
UAF: Effective C2 in maintaining maritime domain awareness, issuing reports, providing general updates on enemy losses, providing detailed operational maps, and issuing timely air raid warnings and intercept statistics. Effective AD operations demonstrate robust C2. UAF artillery units demonstrate effective C2 in targeting and fire missions. UAF DSHV training videos indicate effective C2 over readiness programs. UAF medical battalion pilot project indicates effective C2 over force sustainment initiatives. UAF drone units demonstrate effective C2 for tactical and operational strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

CRITICAL: Immediate and independent verification of RUF claims regarding entry into Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast) and Novosergiivka (DNR). Assess the impact on UAF defensive lines. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Independent verification and assessment of the tactical significance of RUF presence in the "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast. Determine the intent (reconnaissance, forward positioning, defensive screen). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, HUMINT, SIGINT).
HIGH: Conduct comprehensive BDA on the drone attack in Sumy Oblast and artillery/FPV drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. Verify munition types and specific targets, especially the new "Chernika-2" drones. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA teams, IMINT, OSINT).
HIGH: Monitor RUF air traffic restrictions in RF (Tambov, Penza, Saratov airports) to assess any correlation with UAF deep strike activities or internal security concerns. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
HIGH: Verify the report of Kadyrovites killing the Suji military police chief. Assess if this indicates significant internal discipline issues, factionalism, or a deliberate elimination of an anti-corruption figure within RUF. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT).
CRITICAL: Obtain specific details and independent verification of the Russian Investigative Committee's claim of identifying the "perpetrator" of the Krokus City Hall attack. This is a major IO development and will inform RUF's future actions. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Assess the operational impact of novel RUF vehicle modifications ("hedgehog with skewers"). Determine the intended purpose (e.g., anti-drone, anti-personnel, psychological warfare) and evaluate its effectiveness. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
MEDIUM: Verify RUF claim of foreign mercenaries fleeing near Yanvarskoye. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT).
MEDIUM: Investigate the "Chernika-2" drone claims by UAF Southern Defense Forces. Assess its capabilities and potential for mass production by RUF. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, TECHINT).
LOW: Verify the RUF claim of UAF Abrams tank destruction in Sumy Oblast. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
HIGH: Monitor RUF narrative surrounding Pridnestrovie. Assess if this is a precursor to an information operation or military escalation in the region. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

Ground Forces: UAF maintains a defensive posture across the front lines, actively repelling attacks and inflicting significant losses. The DeepState map update indicates sustained active engagement. UAF is actively engaged in fortification efforts. UAF artillery units are actively engaged in supporting ground forces. UAF DSHV units are conducting training to maintain readiness. The "First Separate Medical Battalion" pilot project shows proactive focus on combat sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Naval Forces: UAF Naval Forces demonstrate offensive capability in the Black Sea, successfully destroying multiple RUF landing crafts with troops. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Air Defense: UAF AD remains active against persistent RUF aerial threats, reporting successful intercepts of a high volume of RUF UAVs (78/97, 38 Shaheds). UAF Air Force continues to issue timely air threat warnings. UAF AD has successfully intercepted new RUF drone types ("Chernika-2"). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New: UAF AD remains vigilant against continued UAV movement in northern oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

Successes:
- Naval Strikes: UAF Naval Forces successfully destroyed multiple RUF landing crafts with troops off the coast of Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- UAV Interception: UAF Air Force successfully neutralized 78 of 97 RUF UAVs overnight, and Southern Defense Forces downed 38 Shaheds, demonstrating effective AD response against high-volume attacks. New "Chernika-2" drones were also intercepted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- DeepStrike: Previous reports of UAF successful deep strike on a RUF storage facility in Rostov Oblast. UAF drone strike on residential building in Krasnogorsk, Moscow Oblast, confirms continued deep strike capability. New: UAF Ivan Franko Group drone operators successfully targeted RUF logistics ("roads of death") in rear areas, destroying cargo/light vehicles and armored vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Artillery Engagement: UAF BM-21 Grad MLRS successfully engaged RUF positions in tree lines (Kharkiv Oblast), indicating effective counter-battery and support fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New: UAF "BLACK SKY" unit achieved effective liquidation of RUF personnel and equipment in Donbas using drone strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Localized Counter-Offensive: UAF liberated Andriyivka (Sumy Oblast) previously, demonstrating tactical initiative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Previous Daily Report).
- Counter-Assassination: SBU has successfully prevented multiple assassination attempts on high-level Ukrainian officials. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Previous Daily Report).
- Energy Resilience: Zaporizhzhia Oblast is actively installing solar panels on critical infrastructure to increase energy independence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Setbacks:
- Civilian Casualties/Infrastructure Damage: RUF strikes resulted in civilian fatalities (3 including a child in Sumy) and injuries (6 in Sumy, 3 in Kharkiv), and damage in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, and Kramatorsk. RUF massed drone attack on Kramatorsk indicates continued targeting of urban centers. KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports, video evidence).
- Alleged Positional Setbacks: RUF claims entry into Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast) and capture of Novosergiivka (DNR). These require urgent verification as they would constitute tactical setbacks. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claims).
- Alleged Abrams Destruction: RUF claims destruction of a UAF Abrams tank in Sumy Oblast. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, unverified).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

Continued need for accurate and timely BDA to assess the impact of RUF strikes on UAF positions and logistics.
Continued need for AD systems capable of intercepting various RUF munitions, particularly given continued civilian targeting with UAVs, artillery, ballistic missiles, and FPV drones, and the emergence of new drone types. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Need for sustained international support for AD systems and munitions given the high volume of RUF aerial attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
High demand for FPV and reconnaissance drones from Sumy region (43 requests for 1513 drones) indicates a critical and ongoing need for drone supply. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
110th Brigade fundraising for "anti-motorcycle" equipment highlights specific, evolving materiel needs on the ground. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Coordination with POW support groups indicates ongoing humanitarian needs related to conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

NONE.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

Russian:
- Frontline Glorification/Claims: TASS and other RUF channels (WarGonzo, Поддубный, Воин DV, Colonelcassad, Fighterbomber, Сливочный каприз, Дневник Десантника, Два майора) continue to disseminate claims of tactical successes (e.g., Serebryanka entry, Novosergiivka capture, Krasnoarmeysk advances, Lancet strikes, FAB-1500 strikes) and promote RUF military prowess, aiming to boost domestic morale and project an image of RUF effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Intensified International Diversion & Escalation (Israel-Iran), followed by Explicit Pivot: This remains the most significant and rapidly evolving aspect of RUF IO. RUF channels (TASS, ASTRA, Operational Z, Rybar, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок) have pivoted from escalating the Israel-Iran conflict to claiming "historical success" and "cancellation of World War 3" after Israel agreed to ceasefire, then explicitly stating a return of focus to Ukraine. This aims to demonstrate Russia's ability to control narratives even of external events and divert attention from Ukraine, potentially seeking to reframe Russia as a "stabilizing force" in a complex world. They continue to mock international diplomatic efforts (Rybar) and delegitimize Western leaders (Basurin o Glavnom on Trump). The rapid pivot back to "the Khokhols" after claiming success in the Israel-Iran narrative indicates a strategic completion of that diversion. New: RUF is now actively promoting claims of Israeli "war crimes" (killing scientists, striking residential areas in Tehran/Beer Sheva) even after a ceasefire, attempting to further destabilize the global security environment and portray the West as complicit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Historical Justification (22 JUN 1941): RUF channels continue to disseminate content linked to the 22 JUN 1941 "Day in History," overtly attempting to draw parallels with current events and frame Russia's actions as a pre-emptive defense against a "Western crusade." (HIGH CONFIDENCE – Consistent with previous reporting).
- Direct Blame for Krokus Attack: Dnevnik Desantnika's claim that the Russian Investigative Committee has completed its investigation and named the perpetrator of the Krokus attack is a critical escalation. This formally and publicly links the attack to a specific entity, setting the stage for potential retaliation and serving as a powerful domestic justification for extreme measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Internal Security Claims/Sabotage: FSB claims of detaining 3 Russian citizens in Zaporizhzhia (occupied territory) for planning gas network sabotage, complete with video and "confessions," are a direct attempt to link Ukraine to terrorism in occupied areas, furthering the "terrorist Ukraine" narrative. ASTRA's report on conviction for attempted assassination in Crimea reinforces this. FSB claim of finding weapon caches under Selidovo reinforces this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Dehumanization/Demoralization (UAF Recruitment, Western Aid Failure): Colonelcassad continues to publish videos depicting forceful UAF military recruitment, aiming to demoralize UAF soldiers and the Ukrainian population, and to undermine international support by portraying Ukraine as a desperate state. TASS's report claiming French military aid to Ukraine is outdated/ineffective is a direct attempt to undermine Western support and sow doubt among international partners. "Операция Z" publishing a claimed UAF combatant's criticism of "political tasks" is aimed at sowing internal discord. New: TASS reports claims of "Aidar" desertions in Sumy, aimed at degrading UAF morale. Opera Z publishes a photo of Zelenskyy with a delegitimizing caption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Domestic Mobilization/Support: "Dnevnik Desantnika" and "Два майора" soliciting donations for drones and equipment indicates a direct appeal to the civilian population for military support, which RUF IO promotes to show national unity and support for the war. State media (Gleb Nikitin, Старше Эдды, Новости Москвы) continue to showcase civilian life and economic stability in Russia to counter war fatigue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Apti Alaudinov (Akhmat Spetsnaz commander) claims SBU considers Akhmat fighters priority targets, aiming to project significance and danger, potentially bolstering recruitment or morale within these units. TASS reports on internal legislative changes (traffic, migration) to project state control and order. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Emerging Pridnestrovie Narrative: Rybar's post "Pridnestrovie on the verge" indicates a new potential focus for destabilization narratives, possibly to distract or create a new pressure point. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Ukrainian:
- Situational Awareness/Transparency: UAF General Staff and oblast administrations continue to report on civilian casualties and damage (e.g., 3 fatalities in Sumy, 3 injured in Kharkiv, Kramatorsk drone attack, KABs on Sumy), demonstrating continued transparency. UAF Air Force and Southern Defense Forces report successful UAV intercepts and air threat warnings, including new drone types. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Rapid Global Contextualization: Ukrainian channels (Sternenko, Tsapliyenko, RBK-Ukraine, Operational ZSU) continue to report and comment on the Israel-Iran conflict, now including the ceasefire and its potential economic impacts (oil prices). This often has an underlying message aimed at highlighting RUF's hypocrisy or the broader implications of global instability for Ukraine. RBK-Ukraine also highlights the upcoming NATO summit as relevant for Ukraine, and raises the issue of Putin preparing for NATO attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Emotional Condemnation: Ukrainian channels are expressing strong emotional condemnation of RUF actions, particularly those resulting in child fatalities, underscoring the brutality of the conflict. Daily minute of silence videos (Zaporizhzhia, KMVA, Operational ZSU) reinforce national mourning and resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Showcasing UAF Effectiveness: UAF brigades (47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, 25th Separate Airborne Brigade, 110th Brigade, Ivan Franko Group, BLACK SKY) are publishing videos of their artillery in action, training exercises, and successful drone strikes on RUF targets, demonstrating UAF capability and boosting morale. The destruction of RUF boats and interception of new drone types are publicized. The "First Separate Medical Battalion" pilot project highlights force sustainment. The "Shoot it down already, someone!" message on a downed drone wing boosts defiance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Resilience and Future-Oriented Messaging: Zaporizhzhia OVA's reporting on solar panel installation in hospitals and schools projects resilience and a proactive approach to rebuilding and self-sufficiency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

Ukrainian: Civilian fatalities, especially of a child, from drone strikes in Sumy, and persistent attacks in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk, will severely impact morale and increase public anger. The successful UAF naval strikes and high UAV interception rate can contribute to a sense of effectiveness and resilience. Unverified RUF claims of tactical gains could, if left unaddressed, erode confidence. Air raid warnings across multiple oblasts maintain high stress levels. Calls for drones from Sumy and fundraising by 110th Brigade suggest strong public engagement and a desire to contribute to defense. Commemorative posts (Zaporizhzhia, KMVA) reinforce national unity and honor fallen heroes. Continued high morale observed in UAF training videos and medical initiatives. Strong public engagement in POW coordination efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian: Domestic audiences are being saturated with claims of battlefield successes, normalized views of the conflict, and an increasingly controlled narrative of global conflict (Israel-Iran escalation/de-escalation) to distract from Ukraine. The pivot to claiming "success" in the Israel-Iran conflict aims to reinforce the narrative of Russia being a central, stabilizing player in a complex, dangerous world, potentially boosting national pride and distracting from domestic issues or setbacks in Ukraine, before explicitly turning attention back to Ukraine. Claims of UAF attacks on RF territory (Brianskiy Oblast, Krasnogorsk) are used to justify RUF's war as defensive, while the damage in Krasnogorsk could fuel anti-Ukrainian sentiment. The ongoing 22 JUN 1941 narrative is designed to reinforce a sense of historical justification and national unity. Appeals for public donations for military equipment suggest a belief in the cause among some segments of the population. The formal accusation regarding Krokus will likely solidify domestic support for further aggressive actions, as will the claims of apprehending saboteurs. New: Narratives about internal security, anti-migration laws, and convicted "terrorists" aim to project a sense of stability and justify state control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

RUF's rapid and detailed amplification of the Israel-Iran conflict, and the subsequent pivot to claiming "historical success" and "World War 3 cancelled," is a direct, aggressive attempt to dominate the global information space. This aims to ensure the focus remains on this new crisis, thereby drawing attention and resources away from Ukraine. The mockery of Trump's ceasefire claims by RUF channels indicates an intent to undermine any international mediation efforts that might stabilize the global environment, which would indirectly benefit Ukraine. The explicit declaration by a RUF channel (Alex Parker Returns) of "No more news about Iran. We are returning to the Khokhols" signifies a calculated shift in focus now that the Israel-Iran narrative has run its course for RUF's purposes. The upcoming NATO summit in The Hague is a key diplomatic event, and its outcomes regarding Ukraine will be critical for assessing continued international support. The RUF narrative seeking to discredit Western aid is a direct threat to international support for Ukraine. Ukrainian media raising concerns about Putin preparing for NATO attack indicates an attempt to galvanize international attention. New: RUF's attempts to keep the Israel-Iran narrative alive by promoting Israeli "war crimes" after a ceasefire is a dangerous diplomatic maneuver aimed at global destabilization and deflecting attention from Ukraine. The emerging Pridnestrovie narrative suggests RUF may seek to open a new diplomatic/security crisis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

HIGH: Monitor the international media and diplomatic response to RUF's explicit pivot from the Israel-Iran conflict back to Ukraine. Assess if this narrative is successfully shifting the focus from Ukraine among key international partners. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT on diplomatic channels).
MEDIUM: Analyze the specific language and framing used by RUF channels regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, to identify any new or evolving messaging strategies beyond simple distraction. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
MEDIUM: Monitor discussions and outcomes of the 76th NATO Summit in The Hague, specifically regarding new aid packages, membership prospects, or long-term security commitments for Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
CRITICAL: Monitor the global diplomatic and media reactions to Russia's formal accusation regarding the Krokus City Hall attack perpetrator and the FSB's claims of sabotage in Zaporizhzhia. Assess if this narrative gains traction and how it might impact international support for Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Monitor RUF's emerging "Pridnestrovie on the verge" narrative for any indicators of escalation or false-flag operations. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

Sustained Attritional Operations on Ground with Intensified Precision Strikes on UAF Logistics/Force Generation, and a Massively Amplified Global Diversionary IO Campaign Coupled with Krokus Justification and Sabotage Claims, Preparing for a Northern Offensive: RUF will likely continue high-intensity ground assaults on the Donetsk and Luhansk axes, attempting to capitalize on claimed UAF withdrawals and attrit UAF forces, with continued efforts to capture localized strongpoints (e.g., Novosergiivka, Krasnoarmeysk-Ulyanovka). Concurrently, RUF will conduct focused precision strikes (ballistic missiles, KABs, UAVs, FPV drones, including newer variants like "Chernika-2" and FAB-1500) on UAF field ammunition depots, training centers, and increasingly, civilian targets in frontline and border regions (Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia), attempting to degrade UAF logistics, force generation, and civilian morale. RUF will continue to saturate UAF AD with high volumes of UAVs, as seen in Kramatorsk and Southern defense zone. RUF's IO will intensify its focus on Ukraine, explicitly stating the shift from global crises, and will heavily amplify its formal accusation regarding the Krokus City Hall perpetrator, and new claims of Ukrainian-linked sabotage in occupied territories, using these as direct, public justifications for escalated actions against Ukraine. RUF will continue to sow discord by promoting UAF desertion narratives. The continued push of the 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative, coupled with reports from the Sumy "buffer zone," indicates that RUF is likely in the final shaping phases for a major ground offensive on the Sumy and/or Kharkiv axes to open a new front within 24-48 hours. Domestic messaging will continue to project stability and military success, framing Russia as a global power while blaming Ukraine for attacks on RF territory. RUF IO will likely attempt to create a new "crisis" narrative around Pridnestrovie to further distract and pressure the West. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

Renewed Large-Scale Offensive on Sumy/Kharkiv Axes, Preceded by Saturation Strikes on AD/Logistics, While International Focus is Maintained on Fabricated "Terrorist Ukraine" Narratives and Dangerous Rhetoric, Under Cover of Krokus Retaliation: RUF, leveraging its existing force concentration and shaping operations, will initiate a major multi-axis ground offensive on the Sumy and/or Kharkiv axes, possibly coordinated with intensified pressure on the Donetsk/Luhansk axes. This offensive would be preceded by massed, multi-vector aerial strikes (ballistic, cruise, KAB, Shahed, and new drone types) designed to saturate UAF AD and degrade critical logistics and command nodes in preparation for the ground assault. This offensive would occur under the direct cover of intensified RUF IO focusing on Ukraine as a "terrorist state", leveraging the Krokus perpetrator claim and alleged sabotage in occupied territories as justification. RUF would also likely attempt to conduct a high-impact false-flag operation in Ukraine or a neighboring country (e.g., Moldova/Transnistria), which RUF would attribute to "Ukrainian terrorism" or fabricated "global war" scenarios, aiming to paralyze international decision-making and divert support away from Ukraine. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 240730Z JUN 25):
- RUF: Expect continued RUF artillery, KAB, UAV, and FPV drone strikes across the front lines and border regions (Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia), with renewed claims of tactical gains. RUF will continue to dominate the information space with intensified focus on Ukraine, explicitly pivoting from global crises. Crucially, RUF IO will actively disseminate the formal accusation regarding the Krokus City Hall perpetrator and claims of Ukrainian-linked sabotage, likely linking them to Ukraine to justify future actions. RUF aviation will continue to support ground advances, including FAB-1500 use. Expect initial attempts to build a narrative around Pridnestrovie.
- UAF Decision Point: Immediately verify RUF claims of UAF positional abandonment/setbacks and breakthroughs (Serebryanka, Novosergiivka) to assess tactical impact and counter false narratives. Maintain AD readiness, particularly for combined attacks and continued UAV/FPV drone/ballistic missile threats on urban centers and force generation sites (including new UAV groups on Sumy-Poltava axis). Proactively monitor RUF IO channels for further escalation or new narratives regarding Krokus and sabotage claims, and the emerging Pridnestrovie narrative. Prepare immediate, evidence-based counter-messaging to debunk the Krokus perpetrator claim and sabotage claims as baseless pretexts. Address civilian casualties from RUF strikes transparently, using specifics and condemning the targeting of non-combatants. Reinforce positions on active axes and re-assess northern threat.
Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
- RUF: RUF will likely attempt to maintain or increase pressure on existing ground axes, potentially continuing precision strikes on UAF logistics and civilian targets. Expect continued shaping operations for a northern offensive (Sumy/Kharkiv axes), and potential initiation of this offensive. RUF will continue to exploit UAF deep strikes on RF territory for domestic justification, now strongly linking them to the Krokus City Hall attack and claimed sabotage as justification for "retaliation." Expect the Pridnestrovie narrative to gain traction.
- UAF Decision Point: Maintain high vigilance for a potential escalation of ground operations, especially on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, and saturation strikes against UAF rear areas and urban centers. Continue to aggressively and pre-emptively counter RUF's information war, specifically by exposing their deliberate exploitation of the Krokus attack and sabotage claims as false-flag pretexts for aggression. Most critically, prepare a robust and immediate response to RUF's Krokus perpetrator claim and sabotage claims, debunking them with verifiable evidence and highlighting them as blatant false-flags for further aggression. Consistently highlight the human cost of Russia's aggression in Ukraine, using verified BDA and emphasizing war crimes against civilians and children. Prepare for rapid response to an offensive on northern axes and continue to seek international support at events like the NATO Summit. Proactively counter any emerging RUF narratives regarding Pridnestrovie with factual information.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR to Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast), Novosergiivka (DNR), and the "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast to immediately verify RUF claims of UAF positional setbacks and RUF presence/intent. This is critical for accurate battlefield assessment and countering false narratives.
IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Intensify OSINT and SIGINT on RUF and pro-RUF channels to monitor their explicit shift in IO focus back to Ukraine, and the continued amplification of the formal Krokus accusation and sabotage claims. Identify key narrative amplifiers and prepare rapid counter-messaging. This Krokus claim and sabotage allegations are critical precursors to further RUF aggression. Monitor the emerging "Pridnestrovie on the verge" narrative.
HIGH: Conduct urgent GEOINT and IMINT analysis of the drone attack in Sumy Oblast and artillery/FPV drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, to confirm munition types (including "Chernika-2" and FAB-1500) and provide evidence of war crimes.
HIGH: Prioritize HUMINT and OSINT collection on RUF logistics chains targeting ammunition depots, training centers, and any new force concentrations (especially in Sumy/Kharkiv directions) to inform UAF targeting and force protection.
HIGH: Monitor RUF air traffic restrictions in RF (Tambov, Penza, Saratov airports) to assess any correlation with UAF deep strike activities or internal security concerns, providing potential targets or indicators of RUF vulnerabilities.
HIGH: Verify the report of Kadyrovites killing the Suji military police chief. If true, exploit this for IO and assess its impact on RUF cohesion and discipline.
HIGH: Assess the operational impact of novel RUF vehicle modifications ("hedgehog with skewers") to determine countermeasures.
MEDIUM: Investigate the new "Chernika-2" drone technology. Conduct technical intelligence analysis if possible to determine its capabilities and potential for mass deployment by RUF.
MEDIUM: Collect and analyze evidence of RUF drone operations impacting civilian areas, particularly in Sumy and Krasnogorsk, to support allegations of war crimes.
HIGH: Continue to identify and target RUF logistics lines and personnel in rear areas, leveraging successful drone operations like those by Ivan Franko Group.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

URGENT: Maintain heightened AD readiness across all major urban centers, especially Kharkiv, Sumy, Kyiv, Dnipro, Kramatorsk, and Zaporizhzhia, against continued UAV, ballistic missile, KAB, and FPV drone threats. Ensure rapid re-engagement capabilities and layered defense, anticipating combined-arms strikes, including those using newer drone variants. Prioritize protection of force generation assets (training centers, barracks) and critical infrastructure.
URGENT: Review and enhance force protection measures for all UAF ammunition depots, training centers, and critical civilian infrastructure, emphasizing dispersion, hardened shelters, and active deception measures, given reported RUF targeting of such sites and ongoing terror strikes.
HIGH: Advise ground forces on all active fronts to maintain extreme vigilance against precision artillery strikes, KABs, and FPV drones, particularly in areas with known concentrations of UAF assets or logistics. Special attention to countering RUF "anti-motorcycle" tactics.
HIGH: Continue efforts to enhance energy resilience in frontline oblasts like Zaporizhzhia through initiatives like solar panel installation.

6.3. Ground Forces:

IMMEDIATE: Confirm or deny RUF claims of UAF positional setbacks near Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast) and Novosergiivka (DNR) and adjust defensive posture accordingly. If confirmed, assess the tactical implications and plan for immediate counter-actions or reinforcement.
URGENT: Continue to reinforce defensive positions and prepare for potential intensified ground assaults on the Donetsk and Luhansk axes (Pokrovsk-Siversk, Krasnoarmeysk-Ulyanovka, Siversk-Ivano-Darivka).
URGENT: Maintain high vigilance for potential large-scale ground offensive maneuvers on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, given the persistent RUF force posture and ongoing shaping operations. Ensure reserves are positioned for rapid deployment to these axes.
HIGH: Continue effective employment of artillery assets (e.g., BM-21 Grad) for counter-battery fire and support of defensive operations.
HIGH: Rapidly implement countermeasures and training for RUF "anti-motorcycle" tactics, drawing on 110th Brigade's initiatives.
HIGH: Leverage successful UAF drone operations (BLACK SKY unit) to target RUF personnel and equipment in tactical areas.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Issue rapid, verifiable counter-narratives to RUF claims of UAF positional setbacks and successful breakthroughs. Provide transparent, evidence-based updates on UAF defensive operations and enemy losses.
URGENT: Launch a globally coordinated IO campaign to expose Russia's deliberate and opportunistic exploitation of the Israel-Iran conflict, and its explicit pivot back to Ukraine. Highlight how Russia is using global crises to divert international attention from its war in Ukraine, undermine global support, and advance its own geopolitical agenda. Emphasize that such diversion directly benefits Russia's continued aggression. Expose RUF's attempts to falsely blame Israel for continued regional destabilization.
IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prepare and execute a robust, rapid, evidence-based counter-narrative campaign to debunk Russia's formal accusation regarding the Krokus City Hall perpetrator and the recent FSB claims of sabotage in Zaporizhzhia and the Selidovo cache. Proactively provide evidence of Russian false-flag operations and highlight these claims as dangerous, fabricated pretexts for escalated aggression against Ukraine.
HIGH: Engage with international partners at the NATO Summit and other forums to ensure continued focus on Ukraine, despite other global crises. Provide timely, actionable intelligence on Russia's multi-domain aggression to underpin diplomatic efforts. Proactively communicate the reality of RUF terror tactics against Ukrainian civilians, using specific examples like the child fatality in Sumy and the Kramatorsk attack.
HIGH: Proactively counter the 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative being pushed by RUF. Reframe this historical date as a reminder of unprovoked aggression and the need for strong defense, drawing parallels to current RUF actions, rather than allowing RUF to manipulate it for its own agenda.
HIGH: Publicize successful UAF deep strikes on RF territory (e.g., Krasnogorsk drone strike, Rostov facility) and successful naval engagements to demonstrate UAF capability and resilience. Counter RUF narratives seeking to discredit Western military aid and those promoting UAF desertion.
HIGH: Proactively address and debunk any emerging RUF narratives regarding Pridnestrovie to prevent a new front of destabilization.