Sitrep 2025-06-24 06:07:43

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 240600Z JUN 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

Donetsk Oblast: RUF (via TASS, Marochko) claims entry into Serebryanka, DPR, and dislodging UAF. (LOW CONFIDENCE – RUF claim, unverified). WarGonzo map indicates engagements on the Pokrovsk axis (Karlivka, Yasnobrodivka, Nevelske), Kramatorsk axis (Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka), Kurakhove axis (Heorhiivka, Maksymilyanivka, Krasnohorivka), and Velyka Novosilka axis (Urozhaine). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF source map, consistent with previous reporting). New: RBK-Ukraine reports RUF massed drone attack on Kramatorsk with "Geranium-2" (Shahed) drones overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source).
Luhansk Oblast: WarGonzo map indicates engagements on the Siversk axis (Rozdolivka, Bilohorivka). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF source map).
Sumy Oblast: RUF drone attack on a village resulted in 3 fatalities, including an 8-year-old child, and 6 injuries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – Tsapliyenko video). Poddubny (ZOV edition) reports an "exclusive" from the "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast with photos, indicating RUF presence or probing near the border. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF source, photo evidence). New: UAF source (Sternenko) reports 43 requests for 1513 drones and 27M UAH from Sumy region, indicating high demand for ISR and combat drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source).
Kharkiv Oblast: RUF launched strikes on Kharkiv city and 5 settlements within the past day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – Oleh Syniehubov, Kharkiv ODA). WarGonzo map indicates engagements on the Kharkiv axis (Vovchansk). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF source map). New: UAF footage (Olexiy Biloshitskyi) shows UAF BM-21 Grad MLRS firing a salvo at RUF positions in tree lines, indicating active UAF artillery response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: No new specific updates for the past day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – No new data received). New: Zaporizhzhia OVA posts video for daily 0900 tribute, indicating continued civilian resilience/commemoration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolskyi Raion): RUF attacked Nikopol, Marhanetska, and Myrivska communities with artillery and FPV drones overnight and morning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF OВА).
Kyiv Oblast: Search and rescue operations completed in Shevchenkivskyi Raion; 9 fatalities confirmed due to RUF attack in previous reporting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Previous Daily Report). New: Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) posts photo honoring fallen Kyiv defenders, indicating ongoing solemn ceremonies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source).
Odesa Oblast: Affected by RUF missile/drone attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Previous Daily Report).
Kherson Oblast: Ukrainian Naval Forces (VMS ZSU) destroyed a RUF landing craft with troops along the western coast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RBK-Ukraine/Operational ZSU video, UAF claim).
RF Territory (General): RUF MoD claims 20 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over RF territory overnight. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim). New: ASTRA and Sever.Realii confirm drone strike on residential building in Krasnogorsk, Moscow Oblast, with casualties reported. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Independent RF/OSINT sources). Poddubny (ZOV edition) posts tactical analysis of damaged armored vehicles and infrastructure, likely from UAF deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source).
Lipetsk Oblast, RF: Temporary restrictions on air traffic at Tambov airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – TASS).
Black Sea/Azov Sea: Ukrainian Naval Forces (VMS ZSU) continue to issue maritime situation reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Global - Middle East (Israel/Iran): Conflicting reports on ceasefire. Trump claimed ceasefire in effect. Fars (Iranian agency via TASS) reports Iran attacked Haifa and Ramat David airbase. Rybar mocks Trump's ceasefire claims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – Multiple OSINT sources). New: TASS reports 9 fatalities, 33 injured in Iran's Gilan province after "Israeli attack." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). ASTRA reports Iran launched missile strike on Israel after Trump ceasefire statement, with casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF OSINT source). Operational Z posts on Israel-Iran ceasefire negotiations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

No significant changes to weather or environmental factors affecting operations in Ukraine.
Nighttime conditions observed in video footage of Sumy drone attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF):
- Ground Forces: UAF maintains defensive posture across front lines. DeepState map updated, indicating ongoing engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – DeepState map). New: UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" shares footage of D-30 artillery in action, indicating active use of towed artillery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). UAF (GenStaff) posts photo of Ukrainian soldiers, indicating continued morale/activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source).
- Air Defense (AD): UAF Air Force reports 78/97 RUF UAVs neutralized overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – Operational ZSU photo, ASTRA photo). New: UAF Air Force reports multiple groups of UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast moving southwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source). Poltava Oblast "all clear" for air threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source).
- Naval Forces: UAF Naval Forces successfully destroyed a RUF landing craft with troops off the western coast of Kherson. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RBK-Ukraine/Operational ZSU video).
- Force Generation: Colonelcassad continues to publish videos depicting forceful UAF military recruitment, aiming to demoralize. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF source video).
Russian Forces (RUF):
- Ground Operations: RUF claims entry into Serebryanka (DPR). WarGonzo maps show continued offensive pressure across multiple axes, including Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, Siversk, and Vovchansk. (LOW CONFIDENCE on Serebryanka claim, HIGH CONFIDENCE on WarGonzo map indicating active engagements). Poddubny (ZOV edition) reports RUF presence in a "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF source, photo). New: "Воин DV" (RUF source) posts video of Russian aviation delivering "gifts" to UAF 110th Territorial Defense Brigade near Poltavka, indicating active RUF close air support/interdiction. Colonelcassad shares video of T-80BVM tank crew destroying UAF strongholds on Krasnoarmeysk direction, suggesting localized RUF gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF sources). Poddubny posts tactical analysis of damaged armored vehicles and infrastructure, indicating recent RUF damage assessment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source).
- Artillery/Air Strikes: RUF continues to employ indirect fire and UAVs, evidenced by civilian casualties in Sumy and Kharkiv, and successful precision strike on a UAF training center in Sumy in previous reporting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF reports, video evidence). New: RUF drone attack confirmed on residential building in Krasnogorsk, Moscow Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Independent RF/OSINT sources). RUF massed drone attack on Kramatorsk (Donetsk Oblast) reported. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source).
- Air Defense (AD): RUF MoD claims 20 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions overnight. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim). New: ASTRA and Sever.Realii corroborate 20 UAV intercepts over RF territory, with one hitting a residential building in Moscow Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Independent RF/OSINT sources).
- Information Operations (IO):
  - Frontline Claims: TASS reports RUF advances. WarGonzo provides a "Frontline summary for the morning of 24.06.2025" with detailed maps. (LOW CONFIDENCE on specific claims, HIGH CONFIDENCE on WarGonzo as a reliable RUF information source). New: "Воин DV" and Colonelcassad disseminate videos promoting RUF military successes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF sources).
  - International Diversion & Escalation: RUF-aligned channels (TASS, Rybar, Basurin o Glavnom, Colonelcassad, Opera Z) continue extensive reporting on the Israel-Iran conflict, with conflicting information on a ceasefire. They mock Trump's ceasefire claims and amplify Iranian reports of attacks on Israeli targets (Haifa, Ramat David). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New: TASS reports Israeli attack on Iran's Gilan province with fatalities. ASTRA reports Iran launched missile strike on Israel after Trump ceasefire. Operational Z posts on Israel-Iran ceasefire negotiations, highlighting potential RUF narrative control over global events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF sources). Rybar posts "Gold, Drones, and Sovereignty," likely a geopolitical commentary, indicating RUF's broader narrative framing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source).
  - Domestic Resilience/Justification: Basurin o Glavnom continues to push "Day in History" posts and content aimed at domestic morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New: Igor Artamonov (RF governor) issues "Attention!" notice, likely related to drone threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source). "Dnevnik Desantnika" (RUF source) solicits donations for drones and equipment for paratroopers, indicating ongoing resource needs and public engagement for RUF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source).
  - Dehumanization/Terror Normalization: Continued civilian casualties from RUF strikes in Sumy and Kharkiv underscore RUF's ongoing terror tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad continues to show controversial UAF recruitment videos, aiming to demoralize. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). New: UAF source "Shef Hayabusa" reports Kadyrovites killed Suji military police chief for uncovering looting, suggesting internal RUF discipline issues or factional violence. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - UAF source, unverified by other means).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

CRITICAL: Immediate and independent verification of RUF claims regarding entry into Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast). Assess the impact on UAF defensive lines. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Independent verification and assessment of the tactical significance of RUF presence in the "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast. Determine the intent (reconnaissance, forward positioning, defensive screen). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, HUMINT, SIGINT).
HIGH: Conduct comprehensive BDA on the drone attack in Sumy Oblast and artillery/FPV drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. Verify munition types and specific targets. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA teams, IMINT, OSINT).
HIGH: Monitor RUF air traffic restrictions in RF, specifically Tambov airport, to assess any correlation with UAF deep strike activities or internal security concerns. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
HIGH: Verify the report of Kadyrovites killing the Suji military police chief. Assess if this indicates significant internal discipline issues, factionalism, or a deliberate elimination of an anti-corruption figure within RUF. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

Ground Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate capability for high-intensity, attritional ground assaults across multiple axes (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv). Claims of entry into Serebryanka, if verified, would indicate continued localized advances. The reported RUF presence in the Sumy "buffer zone" suggests active shaping operations on the northern front. RUF aviation continues to provide close air support and interdiction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on capability, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on specific claims).
Artillery/Air Capabilities: RUF maintains significant capability for effective artillery, KAB, and UAV strikes against UAF positions and civilian targets, as evidenced by casualties in Sumy and Kharkiv, and the extensive multi-wave attacks reported previously. The high volume of RUF UAVs (97 detected, 78 neutralized) demonstrates continued mass drone employment for reconnaissance and strike. The massed "Geranium-2" drone attack on Kramatorsk signifies RUF's continued intent to overwhelm UAF AD in key operational areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF's reported drone strike in Moscow Oblast indicates ongoing UAF deep strike capability, forcing RUF to dedicate AD resources to homeland defense.
Naval Capabilities: RUF maintains naval presence in Black Sea, but is vulnerable to UAF asymmetric attacks, as demonstrated by the destruction of a landing craft. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF maintains its highly adaptive and multi-pronged IO approach. The immediate and extensive reporting on the Israel-Iran conflict, with conflicting ceasefire claims and amplification of Iranian reports of attacks on Israeli targets, demonstrates a sophisticated, real-time ability to exploit and amplify global crises to divert attention from Ukraine. The continued push of the 22 JUN historical narrative indicates a deliberate shaping operation for further large-scale aggression. RUF is actively using domestic channels to solicit donations for military equipment, indicating a decentralized, citizen-involved sustainment model for some units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Intentions: RUF intends to:
- Sustain Offensive Pressure: Maintain ground and indirect fire pressure on key axes (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv), seeking operational breakthroughs and attriting UAF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Open New Fronts: Continue shaping operations and force posturing for a potential major ground offensive on the Sumy and/or Kharkiv axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Maximize Global Distraction & De-legitimize Ukraine: Continuously amplify and distort international events (Israel-Iran conflict) to divert global attention from Ukraine, erode international support, and increasingly position Russia as a critical player in a rapidly destabilizing world. This includes mocking international peace efforts and leveraging fabricated narratives about global conflicts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Degrade UAF Morale and Capabilities: Through continued terror strikes against civilians and infrastructure, particularly with drones, ballistic missiles, and artillery. This includes targeting force generation capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Project Domestic Stability & Justify Aggression: Continues to highlight economic resilience amidst sanctions and use attacks on RF territory to reinforce domestic support and justify escalation, while also leveraging public support for military financing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

RUF: The systematic and aggressive use of the Israel-Iran conflict for IO, including mocking international ceasefire efforts, signifies RUF's persistent strategy of leveraging global crises for distraction and narrative control. The reporting of RUF presence in the Sumy "buffer zone" indicates active pre-positioning or reconnaissance for a potential northern offensive. The high volume of UAVs used overnight (97) demonstrates a continued commitment to mass drone attacks, likely aimed at saturating AD. RUF's use of aviation for direct support in tactical engagements (Poltavka area) shows integrated combined arms operations. The reporting of drone strikes on RF territory, acknowledged by RUF-affiliated channels, highlights the ongoing UAF deep strike campaign, forcing RUF to divert AD assets or accept internal vulnerabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF: Continues to maintain situational awareness and defensive posture, with DeepState providing updated operational maps and UAF Air Force reporting successful intercepts of a high volume of RUF UAVs. UAF Naval Forces demonstrating effective asymmetric warfare capability against RUF naval assets. UAF artillery continues to be actively employed, targeting RUF concentrations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF continues active requests for drones, indicating sustained operational needs and adaptation to modern warfare.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

No new significant information regarding overall RUF or UAF logistics and sustainment status. RUF continues to operate with a high volume of UAVs, indicating sustained production or supply. RUF sources soliciting donations for drones and equipment suggest some units may be relying on supplementary, non-state funding/supply for certain materiel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF (Sumy) expressing high demand for drones and associated funding indicates ongoing need for specific types of equipment.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

RUF: Highly effective C2 over its IO, demonstrating rapid, coordinated, and increasingly escalatory messaging across multiple channels to leverage global events. Their ability to immediately pivot from one narrative to another (e.g., from Trump's ceasefire claims to confirmed missile launches and then mocking the ceasefire) shows strong C2. Coordination observed between strategic IO (22 JUN narrative) and operational shaping (Sumy buffer zone report). Active direct support from RUF aviation to ground units (Poltavka) indicates effective tactical C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The reported internal conflict within RUF (Kadyrovites killing military police chief) would, if verified, indicate a localized C2 breakdown or lack of discipline within certain units. (LOW CONFIDENCE on C2 breakdown, HIGH on report).
UAF: Effective C2 in maintaining maritime domain awareness, issuing reports, providing general updates on enemy losses, providing detailed operational maps, and issuing timely air raid warnings and intercept statistics. Effective AD operations demonstrate robust C2. UAF artillery units demonstrate effective C2 in targeting and fire missions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

CRITICAL: Immediate and independent verification of RUF claims regarding entry into Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast). Assess the impact on UAF defensive lines. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Independent verification and assessment of the tactical significance of RUF presence in the "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast. Determine the intent (reconnaissance, forward positioning, defensive screen). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, HUMINT, SIGINT).
HIGH: Conduct comprehensive BDA on the drone attack in Sumy Oblast and artillery/FPV drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. Verify munition types and specific targets. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA teams, IMINT, OSINT).
HIGH: Monitor RUF air traffic restrictions in RF, specifically Tambov airport, to assess any correlation with UAF deep strike activities or internal security concerns. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
HIGH: Verify the report of Kadyrovites killing the Suji military police chief. Assess if this indicates significant internal discipline issues, factionalism, or a deliberate elimination of an anti-corruption figure within RUF. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

Ground Forces: UAF maintains a defensive posture across the front lines, actively repelling attacks and inflicting significant losses. The DeepState map update indicates sustained active engagement. UAF is actively engaged in fortification efforts. UAF artillery units are actively engaged in supporting ground forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Naval Forces: UAF Naval Forces demonstrate offensive capability in the Black Sea, successfully destroying a RUF landing craft with troops. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Air Defense: UAF AD remains active against persistent RUF aerial threats, reporting successful intercepts of a high volume of RUF UAVs (78/97). UAF Air Force continues to issue timely air threat warnings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

Successes:
- Naval Strike: UAF Naval Forces successfully destroyed a RUF landing craft with troops off the coast of Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- UAV Interception: UAF Air Force successfully neutralized 78 of 97 RUF UAVs overnight, demonstrating effective AD response against a high-volume attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- DeepStrike: Previous reports of UAF successful deep strike on a RUF storage facility in Rostov Oblast. New: UAF drone strike on residential building in Krasnogorsk, Moscow Oblast, confirms continued deep strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Artillery Engagement: UAF BM-21 Grad MLRS successfully engaged RUF positions in tree lines (Kharkiv Oblast), indicating effective counter-battery and support fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Localized Counter-Offensive: UAF liberated Andriyivka (Sumy Oblast) previously, demonstrating tactical initiative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Previous Daily Report).
Setbacks:
- Civilian Casualties/Infrastructure Damage: RUF strikes resulted in civilian fatalities (3 including a child in Sumy) and injuries (6 in Sumy), and damage in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. New: RUF massed drone attack on Kramatorsk indicates continued targeting of urban centers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports, video evidence).
- Alleged Positional Setbacks: RUF claims entry into Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast). This requires urgent verification as it would constitute a tactical setback. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

Continued need for accurate and timely BDA to assess the impact of RUF strikes on UAF positions and logistics.
Continued need for AD systems capable of intercepting various RUF munitions, particularly given continued civilian targeting with UAVs, artillery, ballistic missiles, and FPV drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Need for sustained international support for AD systems and munitions given the high volume of RUF aerial attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
New: High demand for FPV and reconnaissance drones from Sumy region (43 requests for 1513 drones) indicates a critical and ongoing need for drone supply. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

NONE.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

Russian:
- Frontline Glorification/Claims: TASS and other RUF channels (WarGonzo, Поддубный, Воин DV, Colonelcassad) continue to disseminate claims of tactical successes (e.g., Serebryanka entry, Krasnoarmeysk advances) and promote RUF military prowess, aiming to boost domestic morale and project an image of RUF effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Intensified International Diversion & Escalation (Israel-Iran): This remains the most significant and rapidly evolving aspect of RUF IO. RUF channels (TASS, ASTRA, Operational Z, Rybar) are now extensively reporting on the Israel-Iran conflict, with conflicting messages on a ceasefire (e.g., Trump's claims vs. Fars reports of new attacks) and mocking international diplomatic efforts (Rybar). This aims to dominate the global information space and divert attention from Ukraine. RUF also reports "Israeli attacks" on Iran, potentially fueling the narrative of a wider regional conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Historical Justification (22 JUN 1941): RUF channels continue to disseminate content linked to the 22 JUN 1941 "Day in History," overtly attempting to draw parallels with current events and frame Russia's actions as a pre-emptive defense against a "Western crusade." (HIGH CONFIDENCE – Consistent with previous reporting).
- Dehumanization/Demoralization (UAF Recruitment): Colonelcassad continues to publish videos depicting forceful UAF military recruitment, aiming to demoralize UAF soldiers and the Ukrainian population, and to undermine international support by portraying Ukraine as a desperate state. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Domestic Mobilization/Support: "Dnevnik Desantnika" soliciting donations for drones and equipment indicates a direct appeal to the civilian population for military support, which RUF IO promotes to show national unity and support for the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Ukrainian:
- Situational Awareness/Transparency: UAF General Staff and oblast administrations continue to report on civilian casualties and damage (e.g., 3 fatalities in Sumy, Kramatorsk drone attack), demonstrating continued transparency. UAF Air Force reports successful UAV intercepts and air threat warnings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Rapid Global Contextualization: Ukrainian channels (Sternenko, Tsapliyenko, RBK-Ukraine, Operational ZSU) continue to report and comment on the Israel-Iran conflict, often with an underlying message aimed at highlighting RUF's hypocrisy or the broader implications of global instability for Ukraine. RBK-Ukraine also highlights the upcoming NATO summit as relevant for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Emotional Condemnation: Ukrainian channels are expressing strong emotional condemnation of RUF actions, particularly those resulting in child fatalities, underscoring the brutality of the conflict. Daily minute of silence videos (Zaporizhzhia, Operational ZSU) reinforce national mourning and resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Showcasing UAF Effectiveness: UAF brigades (47th Separate Mechanized Brigade) are publishing videos of their artillery in action, demonstrating UAF capability and boosting morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

Ukrainian: Civilian fatalities, especially of a child, from drone strikes in Sumy, and persistent attacks in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk, will severely impact morale and increase public anger. The successful UAF naval strike and high UAV interception rate can contribute to a sense of effectiveness and resilience. Unverified RUF claims of tactical gains could, if left unaddressed, erode confidence. Air raid warnings across multiple oblasts maintain high stress levels. Calls for drones from Sumy suggest strong public engagement and a desire to contribute to defense. Commemorative posts (Zaporizhzhia, KMVA) reinforce national unity and honor fallen heroes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian: Domestic audiences are being saturated with claims of battlefield successes, normalized views of the conflict, and an increasingly apocalyptic view of global conflict (Israel-Iran escalation) to distract from Ukraine. The strong focus on the Israel-Iran conflict and framing it as a major international crisis aims to reinforce the narrative of Russia being a central player in a complex, dangerous world, potentially boosting national pride and distracting from domestic issues or setbacks in Ukraine. Claims of UAF attacks on RF territory are used to justify RUF's war as defensive, while the damage in Krasnogorsk could fuel anti-Ukrainian sentiment. The ongoing 22 JUN 1941 narrative is designed to reinforce a sense of historical justification and national unity. Appeals for public donations for military equipment suggest a belief in the cause among some segments of the population. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

RUF's rapid and detailed amplification of the Israel-Iran conflict, including conflicting reports on ceasefire and amplification of Iranian attack claims, is a direct, aggressive attempt to dominate the global information space. This aims to ensure the focus remains on this new crisis, thereby drawing attention and resources away from Ukraine. The mockery of Trump's ceasefire claims by RUF channels indicates an intent to undermine any international mediation efforts that might stabilize the global environment, which would indirectly benefit Ukraine. The upcoming NATO summit in The Hague is a key diplomatic event, and its outcomes regarding Ukraine will be critical for assessing continued international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

HIGH: Monitor the international media and diplomatic response to RUF's intensified exploitation of the Israel-Iran conflict, particularly the conflicting ceasefire reports and any alleged US/Israeli failures. Assess if this narrative is successfully shifting the focus from Ukraine among key international partners. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT on diplomatic channels).
MEDIUM: Analyze the specific language and framing used by RUF channels regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, to identify any new or evolving messaging strategies beyond simple distraction. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
MEDIUM: Monitor discussions and outcomes of the 76th NATO Summit in The Hague, specifically regarding new aid packages, membership prospects, or long-term security commitments for Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

Sustained Attritional Operations on Ground with Intensified Precision Strikes on UAF Logistics/Force Generation, and a Massively Amplified Global Diversionary IO Campaign, Preparing for a Northern Offensive: RUF will likely continue high-intensity ground assaults on the Donetsk and Luhansk axes, attempting to capitalize on claimed UAF withdrawals and attrit UAF forces. Concurrently, RUF will conduct focused precision strikes (ballistic missiles, KABs, UAVs, FPV drones) on UAF field ammunition depots, training centers, and increasingly, civilian targets in frontline and border regions (Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv), attempting to degrade UAF logistics, force generation, and civilian morale. RUF will continue to saturate UAF AD with high volumes of UAVs, as seen in Kramatorsk. RUF's IO will intensify its global diversionary and escalatory efforts, providing near real-time, detailed coverage of the Israel-Iran conflict, aiming to overshadow Ukraine and discredit international mediation. The continued push of the 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative, coupled with reports from the Sumy "buffer zone," indicates that RUF is likely in the final shaping phases for a major ground offensive on the Sumy and/or Kharkiv axes to open a new front within 24-72 hours. Domestic messaging will continue to project stability and military success, framing Russia as a global power while blaming Ukraine for attacks on RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

Renewed Large-Scale Offensive on Sumy/Kharkiv Axes, Preceded by Saturation Strikes on AD/Logistics, While International Focus is Hijacked by Escalated Israel-Iran Conflict and Dangerous Rhetoric: RUF, leveraging its existing force concentration and shaping operations, will initiate a major multi-axis ground offensive on the Sumy and/or Kharkiv axes, possibly coordinated with intensified pressure on the Donetsk/Luhansk axes. This offensive would be preceded by massed, multi-vector aerial strikes (ballistic, cruise, KAB, Shahed) designed to saturate UAF AD and degrade critical logistics and command nodes in preparation for the ground assault. This would occur under the direct cover of the escalating Israel-Iran conflict, which RUF would deliberately and maximally amplify, including any and all dangerous rhetoric, to paralyze international decision-making and divert support away from Ukraine. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 240600Z JUN 25):
- RUF: Expect continued RUF artillery, KAB, UAV, and FPV drone strikes across the front lines and border regions (Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk), with renewed claims of tactical gains. RUF will continue to dominate the information space with real-time updates and commentary on the Israel-Iran conflict, aiming to keep global attention fixed on this external crisis, while mocking any ceasefire efforts. RUF IO will continue to reinforce the 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative. RUF aviation will continue to support ground advances.
- UAF Decision Point: Immediately verify RUF claims of UAF positional abandonment/setbacks and breakthroughs to assess tactical impact and counter false narratives. Maintain AD readiness, particularly for combined attacks and continued UAV/FPV drone/ballistic missile threats on urban centers and force generation sites. Proactively monitor RUF IO channels for further escalation or new narratives regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, especially any direct links to Ukraine, and prepare immediate, evidence-based counter-messaging. Address civilian casualties from RUF strikes transparently, using specifics and condemning the targeting of non-combatants. Reinforce positions on active axes and re-assess northern threat.
Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
- RUF: RUF will likely attempt to maintain or increase pressure on existing ground axes, potentially continuing precision strikes on UAF logistics and civilian targets. The Israel-Iran conflict will remain a primary focus of RUF IO, used to justify Russia's geopolitical stance and further divert international attention, likely with increased "global war" framing. Expect continued shaping operations for a northern offensive (Sumy/Kharkiv axes), and potential initiation of this offensive. RUF will continue to exploit UAF deep strikes on RF territory for domestic justification.
- UAF Decision Point: Maintain high vigilance for a potential escalation of ground operations, especially on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, and saturation strikes against UAF rear areas and urban centers. Continue to aggressively and pre-emptively counter RUF's global information war, specifically by exposing their deliberate exploitation of the Israel-Iran conflict and dangerous rhetoric to undermine support for Ukraine. Consistently highlight the human cost of Russia's aggression in Ukraine, using verified BDA and emphasizing war crimes against civilians and children. Prepare for rapid response to an offensive on northern axes and continue to seek international support at events like the NATO Summit.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR to Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast) and the "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast to immediately verify RUF claims of UAF positional setbacks and RUF presence/intent. This is critical for accurate battlefield assessment and countering false narratives.
IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Intensify OSINT and SIGINT on RUF and pro-RUF channels to monitor their real-time exploitation and escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict. Identify key narrative amplifiers, particularly those mocking ceasefire efforts or amplifying Iranian attack claims, and prepare rapid counter-messaging.
HIGH: Conduct urgent GEOINT and IMINT analysis of the drone attack in Sumy Oblast and artillery/FPV drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Kramatorsk Oblasts, to confirm munition types and provide evidence of war crimes.
HIGH: Prioritize HUMINT and OSINT collection on RUF logistics chains targeting ammunition depots, training centers, and any new force concentrations (especially in Sumy/Kharkiv directions) to inform UAF targeting and force protection.
HIGH: Monitor RUF air traffic restrictions in RF, specifically Tambov airport, to assess any correlation with UAF deep strike activities or internal security concerns, providing potential targets or indicators of RUF vulnerabilities.
HIGH: Verify the report of Kadyrovites killing the Suji military police chief. If true, exploit this for IO and assess its impact on RUF cohesion and discipline.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

URGENT: Maintain heightened AD readiness across all major urban centers, especially Kharkiv, Sumy, Kyiv, Dnipro, and Kramatorsk, against continued UAV, ballistic missile, KAB, and FPV drone threats. Ensure rapid re-engagement capabilities and layered defense, anticipating combined-arms strikes. Prioritize protection of force generation assets (training centers, barracks) and critical infrastructure.
URGENT: Review and enhance force protection measures for all UAF ammunition depots, training centers, and critical civilian infrastructure, emphasizing dispersion, hardened shelters, and active deception measures, given reported RUF targeting of such sites and ongoing terror strikes.
HIGH: Advise ground forces on all active fronts to maintain extreme vigilance against precision artillery strikes, KABs, and FPV drones, particularly in areas with known concentrations of UAF assets or logistics.

6.3. Ground Forces:

IMMEDIATE: Confirm or deny RUF claims of UAF positional setbacks near Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast) and adjust defensive posture accordingly. If confirmed, assess the tactical implications and plan for immediate counter-actions or reinforcement.
URGENT: Continue to reinforce defensive positions and prepare for potential intensified ground assaults on the Donetsk and Luhansk axes (Pokrovsk-Siversk).
URGENT: Maintain high vigilance for potential large-scale ground offensive maneuvers on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, given the persistent RUF force posture and ongoing shaping operations. Ensure reserves are positioned for rapid deployment to these axes.
HIGH: Continue effective employment of artillery assets (e.g., BM-21 Grad) for counter-battery fire and support of defensive operations.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Issue rapid, verifiable counter-narratives to RUF claims of UAF positional setbacks and successful breakthroughs. Provide transparent, evidence-based updates on UAF defensive operations and enemy losses.
URGENT: Launch a globally coordinated IO campaign to expose Russia's deliberate and opportunistic exploitation and escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, particularly their mocking of ceasefire efforts and spreading of false reports. Highlight how Russia is using this crisis to divert international attention from its war in Ukraine, undermine global support, and advance its own geopolitical agenda. Emphasize that such diversion directly benefits Russia's continued aggression.
HIGH: Engage with international partners at the NATO Summit and other forums to ensure continued focus on Ukraine, despite other global crises. Provide timely, actionable intelligence on Russia's multi-domain aggression to underpin diplomatic efforts. Proactively communicate the reality of RUF terror tactics against Ukrainian civilians, using specific examples like the child fatality in Sumy and the Kramatorsk attack.
HIGH: Proactively counter the 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative being pushed by RUF. Reframe this historical date as a reminder of unprovoked aggression and the need for strong defense, drawing parallels to current RUF actions, rather than allowing RUF to manipulate it for its own agenda.
HIGH: Publicize successful UAF deep strikes on RF territory (e.g., Krasnogorsk drone strike) to demonstrate UAF capability and resilience.