Sitrep 2025-06-24 05:37:33

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 240600Z JUN 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

Donetsk Oblast: RUF (via TASS, Marochko) claims entry into Serebryanka, DPR, and dislodging UAF. (LOW CONFIDENCE – RUF claim, unverified). WarGonzo map indicates engagements on the Pokrovsk axis (Karlivka, Yasnobrodivka, Nevelske), Kramatorsk axis (Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka), Kurakhove axis (Heorhiivka, Maksymilyanivka, Krasnohorivka), and Velyka Novosilka axis (Urozhaine). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF source map, consistent with previous reporting).
Luhansk Oblast: WarGonzo map indicates engagements on the Siversk axis (Rozdolivka, Bilohorivka). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF source map).
Sumy Oblast: RUF drone attack on a village resulted in 3 fatalities, including an 8-year-old child, and 6 injuries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – Tsapliyenko video). Poddubny (ZOV edition) reports an "exclusive" from the "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast with photos, indicating RUF presence or probing near the border. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF source, photo evidence).
Kharkiv Oblast: RUF launched strikes on Kharkiv city and 5 settlements within the past day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – Oleh Syniehubov, Kharkiv ODA). WarGonzo map indicates engagements on the Kharkiv axis (Vovchansk). (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF source map).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: No new specific updates for the past day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – No new data received).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolskyi Raion): RUF attacked Nikopol, Marhanetska, and Myrivska communities with artillery and FPV drones overnight and morning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF OВА).
Kyiv Oblast: Search and rescue operations completed in Shevchenkivskyi Raion; 9 fatalities confirmed due to RUF attack in previous reporting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Previous Daily Report).
Odesa Oblast: Affected by RUF missile/drone attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Previous Daily Report).
Kherson Oblast: Ukrainian Naval Forces (VMS ZSU) destroyed a RUF landing craft with troops along the western coast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RBK-Ukraine/Operational ZSU video, UAF claim).
RF Territory (General): RUF MoD claims 20 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over RF territory overnight. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim).
Lipetsk Oblast, RF: Temporary restrictions on air traffic at Tambov airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – TASS).
Black Sea/Azov Sea: Ukrainian Naval Forces (VMS ZSU) continue to issue maritime situation reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Global - Middle East (Israel/Iran): Conflicting reports on ceasefire. Trump claimed ceasefire in effect. Fars (Iranian agency via TASS) reports Iran attacked Haifa and Ramat David airbase. Rybar mocks Trump's ceasefire claims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – Multiple OSINT sources).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

No significant changes to weather or environmental factors affecting operations in Ukraine.
Nighttime conditions observed in video footage of Sumy drone attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF):
- Ground Forces: UAF maintains defensive posture across front lines. DeepState map updated, indicating ongoing engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – DeepState map).
- Air Defense (AD): UAF Air Force reports 78/97 RUF UAVs neutralized overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – Operational ZSU photo, ASTRA photo).
- Naval Forces: UAF Naval Forces successfully destroyed a RUF landing craft with troops off the western coast of Kherson. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RBK-Ukraine/Operational ZSU video).
- Force Generation: Colonelcassad continues to publish videos depicting forceful UAF military recruitment, aiming to demoralize. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – RUF source video).
Russian Forces (RUF):
- Ground Operations: RUF claims entry into Serebryanka (DPR). WarGonzo maps show continued offensive pressure across multiple axes, including Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, Siversk, and Vovchansk. (LOW CONFIDENCE on Serebryanka claim, HIGH CONFIDENCE on WarGonzo map indicating active engagements). Poddubny (ZOV edition) reports RUF presence in a "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF source, photo).
- Artillery/Air Strikes: RUF continues to employ indirect fire and UAVs, evidenced by civilian casualties in Sumy and Kharkiv, and successful precision strike on a UAF training center in Sumy in previous reporting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF reports, video evidence).
- Air Defense (AD): RUF MoD claims 20 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions overnight. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE – RUF claim).
- Information Operations (IO):
  - Frontline Claims: TASS reports RUF advances. WarGonzo provides a "Frontline summary for the morning of 24.06.2025" with detailed maps. (LOW CONFIDENCE on specific claims, HIGH CONFIDENCE on WarGonzo as a reliable RUF information source).
  - International Diversion & Escalation: RUF-aligned channels (TASS, Rybar, Basurin o Glavnom, Colonelcassad, Opera Z) continue extensive reporting on the Israel-Iran conflict, with conflicting information on a ceasefire. They mock Trump's ceasefire claims and amplify Iranian reports of attacks on Israeli targets (Haifa, Ramat David). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  - Domestic Resilience/Justification: Basurin o Glavnom continues to push "Day in History" posts and content aimed at domestic morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  - Dehumanization/Terror Normalization: Continued civilian casualties from RUF strikes in Sumy and Kharkiv underscore RUF's ongoing terror tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad continues to show controversial UAF recruitment videos, aiming to demoralize. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

CRITICAL: Immediate and independent verification of RUF claims regarding entry into Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast). Assess the impact on UAF defensive lines. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Independent verification and assessment of the tactical significance of RUF presence in the "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast. Determine the intent (reconnaissance, forward positioning, defensive screen). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, HUMINT, SIGINT).
HIGH: Conduct comprehensive BDA on the drone attack in Sumy Oblast and artillery/FPV drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. Verify munition types and specific targets. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA teams, IMINT, OSINT).
HIGH: Monitor RUF air traffic restrictions in RF, specifically Tambov airport, to assess any correlation with UAF deep strike activities or internal security concerns. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

Ground Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate capability for high-intensity, attritional ground assaults across multiple axes (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv). Claims of entry into Serebryanka, if verified, would indicate continued localized advances. The reported RUF presence in the Sumy "buffer zone" suggests active shaping operations on the northern front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on capability, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on specific claims).
Artillery/Air Capabilities: RUF maintains significant capability for effective artillery, KAB, and UAV strikes against UAF positions and civilian targets, as evidenced by casualties in Sumy and Kharkiv, and the extensive multi-wave attacks reported previously. The high volume of RUF UAVs (97 detected, 78 neutralized) demonstrates continued mass drone employment for reconnaissance and strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Naval Capabilities: RUF maintains naval presence in Black Sea, but is vulnerable to UAF asymmetric attacks, as demonstrated by the destruction of a landing craft. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF maintains its highly adaptive and multi-pronged IO approach. The immediate and extensive reporting on the Israel-Iran conflict, with conflicting ceasefire claims and amplification of Iranian reports of attacks on Israeli targets, demonstrates a sophisticated, real-time ability to exploit and amplify global crises to divert attention from Ukraine. The continued push of the 22 JUN historical narrative indicates a deliberate shaping operation for further large-scale aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Intentions: RUF intends to:
- Sustain Offensive Pressure: Maintain ground and indirect fire pressure on key axes (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv), seeking operational breakthroughs and attriting UAF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Open New Fronts: Continue shaping operations and force posturing for a potential major ground offensive on the Sumy and/or Kharkiv axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Maximize Global Distraction & De-legitimize Ukraine: Continuously amplify and distort international events (Israel-Iran conflict) to divert global attention from Ukraine, erode international support, and increasingly position Russia as a critical player in a rapidly destabilizing world. This includes mocking international peace efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Degrade UAF Morale and Capabilities: Through continued terror strikes against civilians and infrastructure, particularly with drones, ballistic missiles, and artillery. This includes targeting force generation capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Project Domestic Stability & Justify Aggression: Continues to highlight economic resilience amidst sanctions and use attacks on RF territory to reinforce domestic support and justify escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

RUF: The systematic and aggressive use of the Israel-Iran conflict for IO, including mocking international ceasefire efforts, signifies RUF's persistent strategy of leveraging global crises for distraction and narrative control. The reporting of RUF presence in the Sumy "buffer zone" indicates active pre-positioning or reconnaissance for a potential northern offensive. The high volume of UAVs used overnight (97) demonstrates a continued commitment to mass drone attacks, likely aimed at saturating AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF: Continues to maintain situational awareness and defensive posture, with DeepState providing updated operational maps and UAF Air Force reporting successful intercepts of a high volume of RUF UAVs. UAF Naval Forces demonstrating effective asymmetric warfare capability against RUF naval assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

No new significant information regarding overall RUF or UAF logistics and sustainment status. RUF continues to operate with a high volume of UAVs, indicating sustained production or supply. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

RUF: Highly effective C2 over its IO, demonstrating rapid, coordinated, and increasingly escalatory messaging across multiple channels to leverage global events. Their ability to immediately pivot from one narrative to another (e.g., from Trump's ceasefire claims to confirmed missile launches and then mocking the ceasefire) shows strong C2. Coordination observed between strategic IO (22 JUN narrative) and operational shaping (Sumy buffer zone report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF: Effective C2 in maintaining maritime domain awareness, issuing reports, providing general updates on enemy losses, providing detailed operational maps, and issuing timely air raid warnings and intercept statistics. Effective AD operations demonstrate robust C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

CRITICAL: Immediate and independent verification of RUF claims regarding entry into Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast). Assess the impact on UAF defensive lines. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Independent verification and assessment of the tactical significance of RUF presence in the "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast. Determine the intent (reconnaissance, forward positioning, defensive screen). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, HUMINT, SIGINT).
HIGH: Conduct comprehensive BDA on the drone attack in Sumy Oblast and artillery/FPV drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. Verify munition types and specific targets. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA teams, IMINT, OSINT).
HIGH: Monitor RUF air traffic restrictions in RF, specifically Tambov airport, to assess any correlation with UAF deep strike activities or internal security concerns. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

Ground Forces: UAF maintains a defensive posture across the front lines, actively repelling attacks and inflicting significant losses. The DeepState map update indicates sustained active engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF is actively engaged in fortification efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Previous reporting).
Naval Forces: UAF Naval Forces demonstrate offensive capability in the Black Sea, successfully destroying a RUF landing craft with troops. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Air Defense: UAF AD remains active against persistent RUF aerial threats, reporting successful intercepts of a high volume of RUF UAVs (78/97). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

Successes:
- Naval Strike: UAF Naval Forces successfully destroyed a RUF landing craft with troops off the coast of Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- UAV Interception: UAF Air Force successfully neutralized 78 of 97 RUF UAVs overnight, demonstrating effective AD response against a high-volume attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- DeepStrike: Previous reports of UAF successful deep strike on a RUF storage facility in Rostov Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Localized Counter-Offensive: UAF liberated Andriyivka (Sumy Oblast) previously, demonstrating tactical initiative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Previous Daily Report).
Setbacks:
- Civilian Casualties/Infrastructure Damage: RUF strikes resulted in civilian fatalities (3 including a child in Sumy) and injuries (6 in Sumy), and damage in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE – UAF official reports, video evidence).
- Alleged Positional Setbacks: RUF claims entry into Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast). This requires urgent verification as it would constitute a tactical setback. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

Continued need for accurate and timely BDA to assess the impact of RUF strikes on UAF positions and logistics.
Continued need for AD systems capable of intercepting various RUF munitions, particularly given continued civilian targeting with UAVs, artillery, ballistic missiles, and FPV drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Need for sustained international support for AD systems and munitions given the high volume of RUF aerial attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

NONE.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

Russian:
- Frontline Glorification/Claims: TASS and other RUF channels (WarGonzo, Поддубный) continue to disseminate claims of tactical successes (e.g., Serebryanka entry), aiming to boost domestic morale and project an image of RUF effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Intensified International Diversion & Escalation (Israel-Iran): This remains the most significant and rapidly evolving aspect of RUF IO. RUF channels are now extensively reporting on the Israel-Iran conflict, with conflicting messages on a ceasefire (e.g., Trump's claims vs. Fars reports of new attacks) and mocking international diplomatic efforts (Rybar, Basurin o Glavnom, Colonelcassad). This aims to dominate the global information space and divert attention from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Historical Justification (22 JUN 1941): RUF channels continue to disseminate content linked to the 22 JUN 1941 "Day in History," overtly attempting to draw parallels with current events and frame Russia's actions as a pre-emptive defense against a "Western crusade." (HIGH CONFIDENCE – Consistent with previous reporting).
- Dehumanization/Demoralization (UAF Recruitment): Colonelcassad continues to publish videos depicting forceful UAF military recruitment, aiming to demoralize UAF soldiers and the Ukrainian population, and to undermine international support by portraying Ukraine as a desperate state. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Ukrainian:
- Situational Awareness/Transparency: UAF General Staff and oblast administrations continue to report on civilian casualties and damage (e.g., 3 fatalities in Sumy), demonstrating continued transparency. UAF Air Force reports successful UAV intercepts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Rapid Global Contextualization: Ukrainian channels (Sternenko, Tsapliyenko, RBK-Ukraine, Operational ZSU) continue to report and comment on the Israel-Iran conflict, often with an underlying message aimed at highlighting RUF's hypocrisy or the broader implications of global instability for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Emotional Condemnation: Ukrainian channels are expressing strong emotional condemnation of RUF actions, particularly those resulting in child fatalities, underscoring the brutality of the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

Ukrainian: Civilian fatalities, especially of a child, from drone strikes in Sumy, and persistent attacks in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk, will severely impact morale and increase public anger. The successful UAF naval strike and high UAV interception rate can contribute to a sense of effectiveness and resilience. Unverified RUF claims of tactical gains could, if left unaddressed, erode confidence. Air raid warnings across multiple oblasts maintain high stress levels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian: Domestic audiences are being saturated with claims of battlefield successes, normalized views of the conflict, and an increasingly apocalyptic view of global conflict (Israel-Iran escalation) to distract from Ukraine. The strong focus on the Israel-Iran conflict and framing it as a major international crisis aims to reinforce the narrative of Russia being a central player in a complex, dangerous world, potentially boosting national pride and distracting from domestic issues or setbacks in Ukraine. Claims of UAF attacks on RF territory are used to justify RUF's war as defensive. The ongoing 22 JUN 1941 narrative is designed to reinforce a sense of historical justification and national unity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

RUF's rapid and detailed amplification of the Israel-Iran conflict, including conflicting reports on ceasefire and amplification of Iranian attack claims, is a direct, aggressive attempt to dominate the global information space. This aims to ensure the focus remains on this new crisis, thereby drawing attention and resources away from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The mockery of Trump's ceasefire claims by RUF channels indicates an intent to undermine any international mediation efforts that might stabilize the global environment, which would indirectly benefit Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

HIGH: Monitor the international media and diplomatic response to RUF's intensified exploitation of the Israel-Iran conflict, particularly the conflicting ceasefire reports and any alleged US/Israeli failures. Assess if this narrative is successfully shifting the focus from Ukraine among key international partners. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT on diplomatic channels).
MEDIUM: Analyze the specific language and framing used by RUF channels regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, to identify any new or evolving messaging strategies beyond simple distraction. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

Sustained Attritional Operations on Ground with Intensified Precision Strikes on UAF Logistics/Force Generation, and a Massively Amplified Global Diversionary IO Campaign, Preparing for a Northern Offensive: RUF will likely continue high-intensity ground assaults on the Donetsk and Luhansk axes, attempting to capitalize on claimed UAF withdrawals and attrit UAF forces. Concurrently, RUF will conduct focused precision strikes (ballistic missiles, KABs, UAVs, FPV drones) on UAF field ammunition depots, training centers, and increasingly, civilian targets in frontline and border regions (Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv), attempting to degrade UAF logistics, force generation, and civilian morale. RUF will continue to saturate UAF AD with high volumes of UAVs. RUF's IO will intensify its global diversionary and escalatory efforts, providing near real-time, detailed coverage of the Israel-Iran conflict, aiming to overshadow Ukraine. The continued push of the 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative, coupled with reports from the Sumy "buffer zone," indicates that RUF is likely in the final shaping phases for a major ground offensive on the Sumy and/or Kharkiv axes to open a new front within 24-72 hours. Domestic messaging will continue to project stability and military success, framing Russia as a global power while blaming Ukraine for attacks on RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

Renewed Large-Scale Offensive on Sumy/Kharkiv Axes, Preceded by Saturation Strikes on AD/Logistics, While International Focus is Hijacked by Escalated Israel-Iran Conflict and Dangerous Rhetoric: RUF, leveraging its existing force concentration and shaping operations, will initiate a major multi-axis ground offensive on the Sumy and/or Kharkiv axes, possibly coordinated with intensified pressure on the Donetsk/Luhansk axes. This offensive would be preceded by massed, multi-vector aerial strikes (ballistic, cruise, KAB, Shahed) designed to saturate UAF AD and degrade critical logistics and command nodes in preparation for the ground assault. This would occur under the direct cover of the escalating Israel-Iran conflict, which RUF would deliberately and maximally amplify, including any and all dangerous rhetoric, to paralyze international decision-making and divert support away from Ukraine. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 240600Z JUN 25):
- RUF: Expect continued RUF artillery, KAB, UAV, and FPV drone strikes across the front lines and border regions (Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk), with renewed claims of tactical gains. RUF will continue to dominate the information space with real-time updates and commentary on the Israel-Iran conflict, aiming to keep global attention fixed on this external crisis, while mocking any ceasefire efforts. RUF IO will continue to reinforce the 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative.
- UAF Decision Point: Immediately verify RUF claims of UAF positional abandonment/setbacks and breakthroughs to assess tactical impact and counter false narratives. Maintain AD readiness, particularly for combined attacks and continued UAV/FPV drone/ballistic missile threats on urban centers and force generation sites. Proactively monitor RUF IO channels for further escalation or new narratives regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, especially any direct links to Ukraine, and prepare immediate, evidence-based counter-messaging. Address civilian casualties from RUF strikes transparently, using specifics and condemning the targeting of non-combatants.
Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
- RUF: RUF will likely attempt to maintain or increase pressure on existing ground axes, potentially continuing precision strikes on UAF logistics and civilian targets. The Israel-Iran conflict will remain a primary focus of RUF IO, used to justify Russia's geopolitical stance and further divert international attention, likely with increased "global war" framing. Expect continued shaping operations for a northern offensive (Sumy/Kharkiv axes), and potential initiation of this offensive.
- UAF Decision Point: Maintain high vigilance for a potential escalation of ground operations, especially on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, and saturation strikes against UAF rear areas and urban centers. Continue to aggressively and pre-emptively counter RUF's global information war, specifically by exposing their deliberate exploitation of the Israel-Iran conflict and dangerous rhetoric to undermine support for Ukraine. Consistently highlight the human cost of Russia's aggression in Ukraine, using verified BDA and emphasizing war crimes against civilians and children. Prepare for rapid response to an offensive on northern axes.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR to Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast) and the "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast to immediately verify RUF claims of UAF positional setbacks and RUF presence/intent. This is critical for accurate battlefield assessment and countering false narratives.
IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Intensify OSINT and SIGINT on RUF and pro-RUF channels to monitor their real-time exploitation and escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict. Identify key narrative amplifiers, particularly those mocking ceasefire efforts or amplifying Iranian attack claims, and prepare rapid counter-messaging.
HIGH: Conduct urgent GEOINT and IMINT analysis of the drone attack in Sumy Oblast and artillery/FPV drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, to confirm munition types and provide evidence of war crimes.
HIGH: Prioritize HUMINT and OSINT collection on RUF logistics chains targeting ammunition depots, training centers, and any new force concentrations (especially in Sumy/Kharkiv directions) to inform UAF targeting and force protection.
HIGH: Monitor RUF air traffic restrictions in RF, specifically Tambov airport, to assess any correlation with UAF deep strike activities or internal security concerns, providing potential targets or indicators of RUF vulnerabilities.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

URGENT: Maintain heightened AD readiness across all major urban centers, especially Kharkiv, Sumy, Kyiv, and Dnipro, against continued UAV, ballistic missile, KAB, and FPV drone threats. Ensure rapid re-engagement capabilities and layered defense, anticipating combined-arms strikes. Prioritize protection of force generation assets (training centers, barracks).
URGENT: Review and enhance force protection measures for all UAF ammunition depots, training centers, and critical civilian infrastructure, emphasizing dispersion, hardened shelters, and active deception measures, given reported RUF targeting of such sites and ongoing terror strikes.
HIGH: Advise ground forces on all active fronts to maintain extreme vigilance against precision artillery strikes, KABs, and FPV drones, particularly in areas with known concentrations of UAF assets or logistics.

6.3. Ground Forces:

IMMEDIATE: Confirm or deny RUF claims of UAF positional setbacks near Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast) and adjust defensive posture accordingly. If confirmed, assess the tactical implications and plan for immediate counter-actions or reinforcement.
URGENT: Continue to reinforce defensive positions and prepare for potential intensified ground assaults on the Donetsk and Luhansk axes (Pokrovsk-Siversk).
URGENT: Maintain high vigilance for potential large-scale ground offensive maneuvers on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, given the persistent RUF force posture and ongoing shaping operations. Ensure reserves are positioned for rapid deployment to these axes.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Issue rapid, verifiable counter-narratives to RUF claims of UAF positional setbacks and successful breakthroughs. Provide transparent, evidence-based updates on UAF defensive operations and enemy losses.
URGENT: Launch a globally coordinated IO campaign to expose Russia's deliberate and opportunistic exploitation and escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, particularly their mocking of ceasefire efforts. Highlight how Russia is using this crisis to divert international attention from its war in Ukraine, undermine global support, and advance its own geopolitical agenda. Emphasize that such diversion directly benefits Russia's continued aggression.
HIGH: Engage with international partners to ensure continued focus on Ukraine, despite other global crises. Provide timely, actionable intelligence on Russia's multi-domain aggression to underpin diplomatic efforts. Proactively communicate the reality of RUF terror tactics against Ukrainian civilians, using specific examples like the child fatality in Sumy.
HIGH: Proactively counter the 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative being pushed by RUF. Reframe this historical date as a reminder of unprovoked aggression and the need for strong defense, drawing parallels to current RUF actions, rather than allowing RUF to manipulate it for its own agenda.