Sitrep 2025-06-24 05:07:38

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 240600Z JUN 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

Donetsk Oblast (Karpovka, Selidovo): RUF claims UAF abandoned positions near Karpovka (unverified). UFSB in DPR reports discovery of a large booby-trapped weapons cache near Selidovo. (LOW CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on cache discovery - RUF claim, video evidence). RUF forces (35th Army Artillery) continue daily "sweeping" of treelines in their assault zones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source, video evidence). UAF General Staff (Genshtab ZSU) map update indicates active engagements in multiple sectors including Bagatir, Novoselka, Zaporizhzhya (likely a different settlement than the city of Zaporizhzhia), Perebudova, Komar, Myrne, Shevchenko, and Vilne Pole. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF General Staff map).
Luhansk Oblast (Petrovskoye/Grekivka): RUF (Andrey Marochko via TASS) claims RUF forces have broken through UAF defenses near Petrovskoye (Ukrainian name: Grekivka) and commenced clearing operations (unverified). (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claim)
Sumy Oblast (Verkhnosyrovatska Hromada): RUF drone attack on a village resulted in 3 fatalities, including an 8-year-old child, and 6 injuries. New video evidence shows firefighters battling a large blaze at a damaged structure in Sumy at night. This indicates continued RUF targeting of civilian areas with UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF OВА, video evidence). RUF source (Kotsnews) publishes "exclusive" report from "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast, indicating RUF presence or probing. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF source, photo).
Kharkiv Oblast: Threat of missile danger cleared. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF Air Force).
Poltava Oblast: Threat of missile danger. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF Air Force)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Occupants launched 360 strikes on 7 settlements within the past day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF OВА)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolskyi Raion): RUF attacked Nikopol, Marhanetska, and Myrivska communities with artillery and FPV drones overnight and morning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF OВА). Kryvyi Rih reports situation controlled. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Oleksandr Vilkul).
Kyiv Oblast (Kyiv, Shevchenkivskyi Raion, Bila Tserkva): Search and rescue operations completed in Shevchenkivskyi Raion; 9 fatalities confirmed due to RUF attack. Video shows extensive damage to residential building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RBK-Ukraine, video).
Odesa Oblast: Affected by RUF missile/drone attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Previous Daily Report).
Chernihiv Oblast: Threat of hostile UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF Air Force)
Lipetsk Oblast, RF: Air danger regime introduced across the entire oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF Governor)
Moscow/Krasnogorsk, RF: TASS reports a UAV hit a residential building in Krasnogorsk, 2 injured. Colonelcassad provides video of aftermath. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source, video).
Rostov Oblast, RF ("Atlas" Combine): Previously reported successful UAF deep strike on a RUF storage facility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF claim, previous reporting)
Bryansk Oblast, RF: RUF MoD PVO detected and destroyed an enemy aircraft-type UAV overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source).
Usman and Dobrinsky Districts, Lipetsk Oblast, RF: UAV attack threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source).
Black Sea/Azov Sea: Ukrainian Naval Forces (VMS ZSU) continue to issue maritime situation reports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Global - Middle East (Israel/Iran): TASS reports a sixth wave of Iranian missile launches towards Israel, despite claims from both sides of a ceasefire. Colonelcassad mocks Iranian statements on missiles being launched pre-ceasefire. This dynamic indicates continued, volatile escalation. TASS reports 4 fatalities from Iranian missile strike on Beer Sheva, Southern Israel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Multiple OSINT sources, TASS, Colonelcassad, Tsapliyenko). Qatar's PM reportedly convinced Iran to agree to US ceasefire proposal. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Reuters via Tsapliyenko).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

No significant changes to weather or environmental factors affecting operations in Ukraine.
Nighttime conditions observed in video footage of Sumy drone attack and Moscow/Krasnogorsk UAV incident. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF):
- Ground Forces: UAF maintains defensive posture across front lines. UAF General Staff (Genshtab ZSU) continues to publish estimated enemy losses, indicating sustained combat operations, reporting an additional 1200 RUF KIA. UAF General Staff provides operational map update for 240600Z JUN 25, showing active engagements on multiple axes, including Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF General Staff). UAF continues to fortify Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Previous Daily Report).
- Air Defense (AD): UAF AD remains active, issuing ballistic missile warnings for Kharkiv/Poltava and UAV warnings for Chernihiv/Sumy. Ballistic missile threat in Zaporizhzhia cleared. UAF Air Force states 78 enemy UAVs neutralized. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF Air Force).
- Information Operations (IO): Ukrainian channels continue to report on RUF civilian targeting and provide general enemy loss statistics. UAF channels express strong condemnation of RUF actions targeting children. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Russian Forces (RUF):
- Ground Operations: RUF claims breakthroughs near Karpovka (Donetsk) and Petrovskoye/Grekivka (Luhansk), indicating continued offensive pressure. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claims). RUF Artillery (35th Army) observed conducting daily "sweeping" fire in assault zones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source, video). RUF source Kotsnews publishes exclusive report from "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF source, photo).
- Artillery/Air Strikes: RUF continues to employ indirect fire and UAVs, evidenced by civilian casualties in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk, and missile threats to Kharkiv/Poltava. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF reports, video evidence). RUF executed multi-wave combined-arms strikes on Kyiv, Bila Tserkva, and Odesa, causing significant civilian casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RBK-Ukraine, UAF reports).
- Air Defense (AD): RUF MoD claims 20 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions overnight, with one confirmed hit on Krasnogorsk. Bryansk Oblast also reports UAV destruction. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claim, Colonelcassad video).
- Logistics: Colonelcassad reports delivery of a Starlink 5 Mini satellite communication kit to "Buryat Tankers" of the "Vostok" grouping in the South Donetsk direction via crowdfunding. This highlights reliance on civilian-grade communications for frontline units and crowdfunding for vital equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source, video).
- Information Operations (IO):
  - Frontline Claims: TASS reports RUF advances. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
  - International Diversion & Escalation: RUF-aligned channels (TASS, Colonelcassad, Рыбарь) are immediately and extensively reporting on the confirmed sixth wave of Iranian missile launches into Israel, emphasizing "missed" interceptions by both sides and claiming downing of Israeli drones and US base fires. Colonelcassad continues to mock Israel/Iran regarding ceasefire violations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  - Historical Pretext: Basurin o Glavnom continues to push "Day in History" posts with images of WWII Moscow Red Square celebrations, continuing to reinforce the 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative as pretext for a major offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source, photo).
  - Dehumanization/Terror Normalization: Continued civilian casualties from RUF strikes in Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv underscore RUF's ongoing terror tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  - Domestic Resilience: TASS reports on continued growth in certain Russian economic sectors, despite sanctions, aiming to project stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  - Domestic Issues: TASS reports a suspect detained in a double murder case in Tula, indicating ongoing internal security/crime issues in RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RUF source).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

CRITICAL: Immediate and independent verification of RUF claims regarding UAF abandonment of positions near Karpovka (Donetsk Oblast) and breakthrough/clearing operations near Petrovskoye/Grekivka (Luhansk Oblast). Assess the impact on UAF defensive lines and any tactical implications. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Conduct comprehensive BDA on the drone attack in Sumy Oblast and artillery/FPV drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Verify munition types and specific targets. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA teams, IMINT, OSINT).
HIGH: Independent verification of Colonelcassad's claims regarding a fire at "US base Camp Taji" and the downing of an Israeli "Hermes 900" drone. Assess the implications for regional stability. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, GEOINT, INTEL PARTNERS).
HIGH: Determine the precise purpose and deployment of RUF forces in the "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast as reported by Kotsnews. Assess if this indicates forward positioning for an offensive, reconnaissance in force, or establishing a defensive screen. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, HUMINT, SIGINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

Ground Capabilities: RUF continues to claim tactical gains and successful strikes against UAF positions (Karpovka, Petrovskoye/Grekivka), demonstrating intent to maintain pressure on existing axes. The reported discovery of a large weapons cache near Selidovo (DPR) suggests ongoing UAF insurgent activity or RUF efforts to clear pre-positioned materials. RUF artillery is actively "sweeping" forested areas in assault zones. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RUF claims/reports, video).
Artillery/Air Capabilities: RUF maintains capability for effective artillery, KAB, and UAV strikes against UAF positions and civilian targets, as evidenced by casualties in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk, and missile threats to Kharkiv/Poltava, and the deadly attacks on Kyiv. The alleged downing of 20 UAVs over RF territory indicates continued UAF deep strike attempts, which RUF is actively attempting to counter. RUF continues multi-wave, multi-vector air attacks, challenging UAF AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF maintains its highly adaptive and multi-pronged IO approach. The immediate and extensive reporting on further waves of Iranian missile launches, coupled with claims of successful targeting (e.g., US base, Israeli drone), demonstrates a sophisticated, real-time ability to exploit and amplify global crises. The explicit mention of nuclear weapons by Fighterbomber in previous reporting (though not directly repeated in this update, the ME focus continues) is a deliberate escalation of their narrative to portray a heightened global threat landscape. The continued reinforcement of the 22 JUN historical narrative indicates an advanced and deliberate shaping operation for further large-scale aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Logistics & Sustainment: RUF appears to rely on crowdfunding for some crucial frontline equipment (Starlink), suggesting potential systemic gaps or a desire to augment official supply chains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Intentions: RUF intends to:
- Sustain Offensive Pressure: Maintain ground and indirect fire pressure on key axes (Donetsk, Luhansk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk), seeking operational breakthroughs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Maximize Global Distraction & De-legitimize Ukraine: Continuously amplify and distort international events (Israel-Iran conflict) to divert global attention from Ukraine, erode international support, and increasingly position Russia as a critical player in a rapidly destabilizing world. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Degrade UAF Morale and Capabilities: Through continued terror strikes against civilians and infrastructure, particularly with drones, ballistic missiles, and artillery. This includes targeting force generation capabilities (e.g., training centers). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Project Domestic Stability & Justify Aggression: Continues to highlight economic resilience amidst sanctions and use attacks on RF territory (Krasnogorsk, Bryansk) and fabricated narratives (Krokus, Iranian saboteurs) to reinforce domestic support and justify escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Prepare for Major Offensive: The consistent 22 JUN historical narrative and presence in Sumy "buffer zone" indicate preparation for a potential major ground offensive on the northern axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

RUF: The reporting of a sixth wave of Iranian missiles, despite ceasefire claims, and the continued mocking commentary from Colonelcassad, signifies RUF's persistent strategy of leveraging the Israel-Iran conflict for distraction and narrative control. The continued use of FPV drones in areas like Nikopol demonstrates adaptation in precision strike capabilities. Claims of breakthroughs (Petrovskoye/Grekivka) suggest sustained efforts to achieve localized gains. The apparent reliance on crowdfunding for Starlink terminals for frontline units (South Donetsk) indicates an adaptation in logistics, possibly due to high demand or to bypass official procurement challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The systematic application of the 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative is a sophisticated, long-term IO adaptation to generate domestic support for major offensive operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAF: Continues to maintain situational awareness and defensive posture, with General Staff releasing enemy loss statistics (1200 KIA) and detailed operational maps. UAF Air Force is actively issuing ballistic and UAV threat warnings and reporting successful intercepts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

No new significant information regarding overall RUF or UAF logistics and sustainment status. UFSB in DPR reports discovery of a large booby-trapped weapons cache near Selidovo, which if verified, could indicate UAF attempts at pre-positioning or RUF interdiction efforts. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
Operational Z (RUF source) video request for "thermal imagers saving lives at night" indicates potential equipment shortfalls or high attrition rates for night vision devices for RUF frontline units. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
The reported delivery of Starlink terminals to RUF units via crowdfunding indicates a potential, albeit likely localized, reliance on civilian networks and informal supply chains to meet tactical communication needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

RUF: Highly effective C2 over its IO, demonstrating rapid, coordinated, and increasingly escalatory messaging across multiple channels to leverage global events. Their ability to immediately pivot from one narrative to another (e.g., from Trump's ceasefire claims to confirmed missile launches and then to nuclear implications) shows strong C2. Coordination observed between strategic IO (22 JUN narrative) and operational shaping (Sumy buffer zone report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UAF: Effective C2 in maintaining maritime domain awareness, issuing reports, providing general updates on enemy losses, providing detailed operational maps, and issuing timely air raid warnings. Effective AD operations demonstrate robust C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

CRITICAL: Immediate and independent verification of RUF claims regarding UAF abandonment of positions near Karpovka (Donetsk Oblast) and breakthrough/clearing operations near Petrovskoye/Grekivka (Luhansk Oblast). Assess the impact on UAF defensive lines and any tactical implications. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT).
HIGH: Conduct comprehensive BDA on the drone attack in Sumy Oblast and artillery/FPV drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Verify munition types and specific targets. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA teams, IMINT, OSINT).
HIGH: Independent verification of Colonelcassad's claims regarding a fire at "US base Camp Taji" and the downing of an Israeli "Hermes 900" drone. Assess the implications for regional stability. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, GEOINT, INTEL PARTNERS).
HIGH: Determine the precise purpose and deployment of RUF forces in the "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast as reported by Kotsnews. Assess if this indicates forward positioning for an offensive, reconnaissance in force, or establishing a defensive screen. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, HUMINT, SIGINT).
MEDIUM: Assess the prevalence of Starlink or similar civilian satellite communication systems within RUF frontline units. This could indicate limitations in their tactical communications or a deliberate strategy to augment them. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, HUMINT, OSINT).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

Ground Forces: UAF maintains defensive posture across the front lines, actively repelling attacks and inflicting significant losses (1200 KIA reported). The claims of abandonment near Karpovka and breakthroughs near Petrovskoye/Grekivka, if true, would represent minor tactical setbacks, but require independent verification. The General Staff continues to publish enemy loss statistics and detailed operational maps, indicating active engagement. UAF is actively fortifying positions in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Naval Forces: UAF Naval Forces maintain operational awareness and reporting in the Black and Azov Seas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Air Defense: UAF AD remains active against persistent RUF aerial threats, issuing ballistic missile and UAV warnings for multiple oblasts and reporting successful intercepts (78 UAVs neutralized). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

Successes:
- Enemy Attrition: UAF General Staff reports an additional 1200 RUF KIA, indicating successful defensive actions and continued attrition of RUF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Maritime Domain Awareness: Continuous situational reporting by UAF Naval Forces demonstrates effective monitoring of maritime activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Deep Strikes: Continued successful deep strikes by UAF drones within RF territory (e.g., Rostov previously reported, Krasnogorsk UAV incident if confirmed as UAF). UAF confirmed to have neutralized 78 RUF UAVs overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on capability, MEDIUM on Krasnogorsk attribution).
- Local Counter-Offensive: UAF liberated Andriyivka (Sumy Oblast) previously, demonstrating tactical initiative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Previous Daily Report).
Setbacks:
- Alleged Positional Abandonment/Breakthrough: RUF claims UAF abandoned positions near Karpovka (Donetsk Oblast) and RUF breakthrough/clearing near Petrovskoye/Grekivka (Luhansk Oblast). These require urgent verification as they would constitute tactical setbacks. (LOW CONFIDENCE - RUF claims)
- Civilian Casualties/Infrastructure Damage: RUF strikes resulted in civilian fatalities (3 including a child in Sumy, 9 in Kyiv) and injuries (6 in Sumy, 33 in Kyiv) in Sumy, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts due to drone, ballistic missile, and artillery/FPV drone attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official reports, video evidence)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

Continued need for accurate and timely BDA to assess the impact of RUF strikes on UAF positions and logistics.
Continued need for AD systems capable of intercepting various RUF munitions, particularly given continued civilian targeting with UAVs, artillery, ballistic missiles, and FPV drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Need for sustained international support for AD systems and munitions given the high volume of RUF aerial attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

NONE.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

Russian:
- Frontline Glorification/Claims: TASS and other RUF channels continue to disseminate claims of tactical successes (UAF abandoning positions, RUF breakthroughs), aiming to boost domestic morale and project an image of RUF effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Intensified International Diversion & Escalation (Israel-Iran): This remains the most significant and rapidly evolving aspect of RUF IO. RUF channels are now reporting on the sixth wave of Iranian missile launches and explicitly commenting on US/Israeli "missed" targets, claiming the downing of Israeli drones, and alleging a US base fire in Iraq. TASS reported 4 fatalities from Iranian strike on Beer Sheva. Colonelcassad's mocking commentary further exacerbates the crisis narrative, aiming to portray the situation as chaotic and beyond resolution, thereby diverting attention from Ukraine. Рыбарь continues its dedicated Middle East crisis reporting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Historical Justification (22 JUN 1941): RUF channels continue to disseminate content linked to the 22 JUN 1941 "Day in History," overtly attempting to draw parallels with current events and frame Russia's actions as a pre-emptive defense against a "Western crusade," preparing the domestic audience for major escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
- Domestic Resilience/Stability: TASS reports on continued economic growth in specific sectors, aiming to counter narratives of sanctions' effectiveness and reassure the domestic population. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Attribution of Attacks on RF Territory: RUF MoD claims 20 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions overnight, attributing the attacks to Ukraine and portraying RUF as under attack. TASS reports a UAV hit a residential building in Krasnogorsk, which could be attributed to Ukraine, providing a pretext for further escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Victimhood Narrative: TASS reports 13 RF civilians, including two children, died from UAF strikes over the past week, aiming to cultivate a victimhood narrative and justify RUF aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Ukrainian:
- Situational Awareness/Transparency: UAF General Staff continues to release estimated enemy losses (1200 KIA) and UAF oblast administrations report on civilian casualties and damage (e.g., 9 fatalities in Kyiv, 3 in Sumy), demonstrating continued transparency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Rapid Global Contextualization: Ukrainian channels continue to report and comment on the Israel-Iran conflict, often with an underlying message aimed at highlighting RUF's hypocrisy or the broader implications of global instability for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- Emotional Condemnation: Ukrainian channels are expressing strong emotional condemnation of RUF actions, particularly those resulting in child fatalities, underscoring the brutality of the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

Ukrainian: Civilian fatalities, especially of a child, from drone strikes in Sumy, and persistent artillery/drone/missile attacks in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kyiv, will severely impact morale and increase public anger. The ongoing maritime reports by UAF Naval Forces and enemy loss statistics can contribute to a sense of security and awareness of UAF effectiveness. Unverified RUF claims of tactical gains could, if left unaddressed, erode confidence. Air raid warnings across multiple oblasts maintain high stress levels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Russian: Domestic audiences are being saturated with claims of battlefield successes, normalized views of the conflict, and an increasingly apocalyptic view of global conflict (Israel-Iran escalation) to distract from Ukraine. The strong focus on the Israel-Iran conflict and framing it as a major international crisis aims to reinforce the narrative of Russia being a central player in a complex, dangerous world, potentially boosting national pride and distracting from domestic issues or setbacks in Ukraine. Claims of UAF attacks on RF territory (Krasnogorsk, Bryansk, 20 UAVs shot down) are used to justify RUF's war as defensive. The ongoing 22 JUN 1941 narrative is designed to reinforce a sense of historical justification and national unity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

RUF's rapid and detailed amplification of the Israel-Iran conflict, including "sixth wave" missile launches, alleged US/Israeli failures, and the dangerous introduction of a "nuclear-capable" conflict narrative (from previous reporting), is a direct, aggressive attempt to dominate the global information space. This aims to ensure the focus remains on this new crisis, thereby drawing attention and resources away from Ukraine. Qatar's role in mediating a potential ceasefire between Israel and Iran indicates active diplomatic engagement that could either stabilize or further complicate the regional dynamic depending on the outcome. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

HIGH: Monitor the international media and diplomatic response to RUF's intensified exploitation of the Israel-Iran conflict, particularly the "nuclear-capable" narrative. Assess if this narrative is successfully shifting the focus from Ukraine among key international partners and if it affects their perception of global stability vs. regional conflicts. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT on diplomatic channels).
MEDIUM: Analyze the specific language and framing used by RUF channels regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, especially the nuclear rhetoric, to identify any new or evolving messaging strategies beyond simple distraction. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
MEDIUM: Monitor the diplomatic efforts regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, specifically the reported Qatar-mediated ceasefire. Assess the potential impact of a de-escalation or continued escalation on RUF's IO strategy. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT on diplomatic channels).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

Sustained Attritional Operations on Ground with Intensified Precision Strikes on UAF Logistics and a Massively Amplified, Escalatory Global Diversionary IO Campaign, Preparing for a Northern Offensive: RUF will likely continue high-intensity ground assaults on the Donetsk and Luhansk axes (Pokrovsk-Siversk, Petrovskoye/Grekivka), attempting to capitalize on claimed UAF withdrawals and attrit UAF forces. Concurrently, RUF will conduct focused precision strikes (ballistic missiles, KABs, UAVs, FPV drones) on UAF field ammunition depots, training centers (as seen in Sumy), and increasingly, civilian targets in frontline and border regions (Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv), attempting to degrade UAF logistics, force generation, and civilian morale. RUF's IO will intensify its global diversionary and escalatory efforts, providing near real-time, detailed coverage of the Israel-Iran conflict, explicitly linking it to a broader justification for Russia's actions, and deliberately raising the specter of a broader, nuclear-capable conflict to overshadow Ukraine. The continued push of the 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative, coupled with reports from the Sumy "buffer zone" (Kotsnews), indicates that RUF is likely in the final shaping phases for a major ground offensive on the Sumy and/or Kharkiv axes to open a new front. Domestic messaging will continue to project stability and military success, framing Russia as a global power while blaming Ukraine for attacks on RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

Renewed Large-Scale Offensive on Sumy/Kharkiv Axes, Preceded by Saturation Strikes on AD/Logistics, While International Focus is Hijacked by Escalated Israel-Iran Conflict and Dangerous Nuclear Rhetoric: RUF, leveraging the existing 52,000-strong force concentration, will initiate a major multi-axis ground offensive on the Sumy and/or Kharkiv axes, possibly coordinated with intensified pressure on the Donetsk/Luhansk axes. This offensive would be preceded by massed, multi-vector aerial strikes (ballistic, cruise, KAB, Shahed) designed to saturate UAF AD and degrade critical logistics and command nodes in preparation for the ground assault. This would occur under the direct cover of the escalating Israel-Iran conflict, which RUF would deliberately and maximally amplify, including the "nuclear-capable" conflict narrative, to paralyze international decision-making and divert support away from Ukraine. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

Immediate (Next 0-6 hours, starting from 240600Z JUN 25):
- RUF: Expect continued RUF artillery, KAB, UAV, and FPV drone strikes across the front lines and border regions (Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk), with renewed claims of tactical gains. RUF will continue to dominate the information space with real-time updates and commentary on the Israel-Iran conflict, including the "nuclear-capable" narrative, aiming to keep global attention fixed on this external crisis. RUF IO will continue to reinforce the 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative.
- UAF Decision Point: Immediately verify RUF claims of UAF positional abandonment and breakthroughs to assess tactical impact and counter false narratives. Maintain AD readiness, particularly for combined attacks and continued UAV/FPV drone/ballistic missile threats on urban centers and force generation sites. Proactively monitor RUF IO channels for further escalation or new narratives regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, especially any direct links to Ukraine, and prepare immediate, evidence-based counter-messaging. Address civilian casualties from RUF strikes transparently, using specifics and condemning the targeting of non-combatants.
Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
- RUF: RUF will likely attempt to maintain or increase pressure on existing ground axes, potentially continuing precision strikes on UAF logistics and civilian targets. The Israel-Iran conflict will remain a primary focus of RUF IO, used to justify Russia's geopolitical stance and further divert international attention, likely with increased "global war" framing. Expect continued shaping operations for a northern offensive (Sumy/Kharkiv axes).
- UAF Decision Point: Maintain high vigilance for a potential escalation of ground operations, especially on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, and saturation strikes against UAF rear areas and urban centers. Continue to aggressively and pre-emptively counter RUF's global information war, specifically by exposing their deliberate exploitation of the Israel-Iran conflict and dangerous nuclear rhetoric to undermine support for Ukraine. Consistently highlight the human cost of Russia's aggression in Ukraine, using verified BDA and emphasizing war crimes against civilians and children. Prepare for rapid response to an offensive on northern axes.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR to Karpovka (Donetsk Oblast) and Petrovskoye/Grekivka (Luhansk Oblast) to immediately verify RUF claims of UAF positional abandonment and breakthroughs. This is critical for accurate battlefield assessment and countering false narratives.
IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Intensify OSINT and SIGINT on RUF and pro-RUF channels to monitor their real-time exploitation and escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, specifically focusing on the "nuclear-capable" conflict narrative and any alleged US/Israeli failures or attacks on US bases. Identify key narrative amplifiers and prepare rapid counter-messaging.
HIGH: Conduct urgent GEOINT and IMINT analysis of the drone attack in Sumy Oblast and artillery/FPV drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and especially the ballistic missile attack on Kyiv, to confirm munition types and provide evidence of war crimes.
HIGH: Prioritize HUMINT and OSINT collection on RUF logistics chains targeting ammunition depots, training centers, and any new force concentrations (especially in Sumy/Kharkiv directions) to inform UAF targeting and force protection. Actively monitor RUF requests for equipment like thermal imagers and crowdfunding for Starlink as an indicator of capabilities or shortfalls.
HIGH: Increased SIGINT and HUMINT efforts to identify the true purpose and composition of RUF forces in the "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast as reported by Kotsnews.

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

URGENT: Maintain heightened AD readiness across all major urban centers, especially Kharkiv, Sumy, Kyiv, and Dnipro, against continued UAV, ballistic missile, KAB, and FPV drone threats. Ensure rapid re-engagement capabilities and layered defense, anticipating combined-arms strikes. Prioritize protection of force generation assets (training centers, barracks).
URGENT: Review and enhance force protection measures for all UAF ammunition depots, training centers, and critical civilian infrastructure, emphasizing dispersion, hardened shelters, and active deception measures, given reported RUF targeting of such sites and ongoing terror strikes.
HIGH: Advise ground forces on all active fronts to maintain extreme vigilance against precision artillery strikes, KABs, and FPV drones, particularly in areas with known concentrations of UAF assets or logistics.

6.3. Ground Forces:

IMMEDIATE: Confirm or deny RUF claims of UAF positional abandonment near Karpovka (Donetsk Oblast) and breakthrough near Petrovskoye/Grekivka (Luhansk Oblast) and adjust defensive posture accordingly. If confirmed, assess the tactical implications and plan for immediate counter-actions or reinforcement.
URGENT: Continue to reinforce defensive positions and prepare for potential intensified ground assaults on the Donetsk and Luhansk axes (Pokrovsk-Siversk, Petrovskoye/Grekivka).
URGENT: Maintain high vigilance for potential large-scale ground offensive maneuvers on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes, given the persistent RUF force posture and ongoing shaping operations. Ensure reserves are positioned for rapid deployment to these axes.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Issue rapid, verifiable counter-narratives to RUF claims of UAF positional abandonment and successful breakthroughs. Provide transparent, evidence-based updates on UAF defensive operations and enemy losses (e.g., 1200 KIA).
URGENT: Launch a globally coordinated IO campaign to expose Russia's deliberate and opportunistic exploitation and escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, particularly the dangerous "nuclear-capable" narrative. Highlight how Russia is using this crisis to divert international attention from its war in Ukraine, undermine global support, and advance its own geopolitical agenda. Emphasize that such diversion directly benefits Russia's continued aggression.
HIGH: Engage with international partners to ensure continued focus on Ukraine, despite other global crises. Provide timely, actionable intelligence on Russia's multi-domain aggression to underpin diplomatic efforts. Proactively communicate the reality of RUF terror tactics against Ukrainian civilians, using specific examples like the child fatality in Sumy and the 9 fatalities in Kyiv.
HIGH: Proactively counter the 22 JUN 1941 historical narrative being pushed by RUF. Reframe this historical date as a reminder of unprovoked aggression and the need for strong defense, drawing parallels to current RUF actions, rather than allowing RUF to manipulate it for its own agenda.