Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 210600Z JUN 25 CLASSIFICATION: SECRET // NOFORN REPORTING UNIT: G2 ANALYST, UAF HIGH COMMAND

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast): Confirmed massive RUF combined drone and missile attack overnight, including "Shahed" UAVs, cruise missiles, "Kinzhal" hypersonic missiles, and ballistic missiles. Initial reports indicated "dozens of explosions" (local media) or "around 50 explosions" (RUF sources), now refined to "not less than 40 explosions" (Оперативний ЗСУ). Fragments found "stuffed with metal balls" (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) designed to maximize civilian casualties. STERNENKO reports a second attack on energy infrastructure in Kremenchuk, indicating a persistent targeting pattern. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This confirms a significant escalation of kinetic pressure on a central Ukrainian city and indicates deliberate targeting of civilians and energy infrastructure. ASTRA confirms one person injured in the Kremenchuk attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Polohy Direction (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): RUF 35th Army artillery conducting fire on "presumed enemy UAV calculations." (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity/effectiveness). This indicates RUF is actively targeting UAF drone operations in this sector.
• Kherson Oblast (Central District): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports very heavy RUF shelling overnight, causing extensive damage to residential buildings, shattered windows, debris, and collapsed sections. Civilian testimony confirms significant impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This highlights continued kinetic pressure on a liberated area.
• Kiev (Kyiv Oblast): ASTRA reports a cat found alive under the rubble of a missile-destroyed house. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This is likely a delayed report from a previous RUF missile strike, serving as a humanitarian/morale note.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Continued RUF attacks using FPV drones and artillery (from previous report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sumy Oblast: RUF "Lancet" strike on a multi-story residential building, injuring one civilian (from previous report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Local authorities report the situation is "controlled" as of morning 21 JUN (from previous report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kharkiv Oblast: 6 settlements subjected to enemy strikes over the past day (Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА). Alex Parker Returns (RUF milblogger) posted a video claiming a "full recording of the epic undermining of the UAF in Kharkiv," indicating ongoing RUF kinetic activity and propaganda framing of alleged successes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW on veracity).
• Lyman Direction (Donetsk Oblast): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a successful raid by two UAF 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade soldiers on Russian positions, resulting in two RUF POWs and one RUF KIA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This indicates active UAF ground operations and successful tactical engagements.
• South Donetsk Direction: Воин DV (RUF milblogger) claims drone operators of the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade destroyed Starlink terminals. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW on veracity/impact). If true, this indicates RUF targeting of critical UAF communications infrastructure.
• RUF Territory (RF): Ministry of Defense (MoD) RF claims five Ukrainian UAVs intercepted overnight over Russian regions (from previous report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity/number). Tambov Oblast (RF) reports a man detained on suspicion of treason (from RUF milblogger). (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim). Altai region (RF) is experiencing a large public protest against the liquidation of local councils (ASTRA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Belgorod Oblast previously reported a UAF strike on a logistics truck (from previous daily report). TASS reports on Russian Ministry of Construction (Minstroy RF) discussing support measures for businesses in Donbas and "Novorossiya," indicating continued focus on integration of occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• No significant changes impacting operations reported. Night operations confirmed by video evidence of Kremenchuk and Kherson attacks.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
  • General Staff: Issued daily operational information as of 08:00 21 JUN 2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This includes map updates (DeepState) and summary briefings (Operational ZSU), indicating continued situational awareness and transparent reporting. UAF forces maintained defense against a massive overnight strike on Kremenchuk, with the Poltava Oblast Military Administration (OVA) reporting most munitions were intercepted by air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade: Conducted a successful raid on RUF positions in the Lyman direction, demonstrating offensive tactical capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • "Rubizh" Brigade, National Guard of Ukraine (NGU): РБК-Україна reports this unit is collecting funds for the restoration of destroyed property and equipment, indicating combat losses and ongoing sustainment efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The identification of "МИРОТВОРЕЦ" (Peacemaker) patch potentially identifies a specific element within the NGU.
  • 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade (DShV): Published video showing drone-assisted engagements against RUF military vehicles (tanks) on a dirt road, resulting in explosions and smoke, indicating successful strikes (from previous report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This confirms active UAF drone operations and effective targeting.
  • Air Assault Forces of Ukraine (DShV): Released images showcasing fire training, emphasizing "fire training is the basis of survivability and effectiveness on the battlefield." This indicates ongoing training and readiness maintenance (from previous report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • "Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems": Previously established, this new structure is crucial for UAF counter-drone operations and offensive drone capabilities, which are now being directly challenged by RUF artillery targeting (Polohy direction) and claimed Starlink destruction (South Donetsk).
  • Morale/Commemoration: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація and Оперативний ЗСУ highlight the daily 09:00 minute of silence, demonstrating continued national commemoration for fallen defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Air/Missile/Drone Operations: Executed a massive combined drone (Shahed) and missile (cruise, Kinzhal, ballistic) attack on Kremenchuk, with STERNENKO confirming secondary targeting of energy infrastructure. Evidence of fragments "stuffed with metal balls" indicates deliberate use of cluster-type munitions designed for anti-personnel effects. Continued use of FPV drones in Dnipropetrovsk direction (Nikopolshchyna) and Lancet loitering munitions in Sumy (from previous report). RUF 35th Army artillery actively targeting UAF drone teams in Polohy direction. Воин DV claims destruction of Starlink terminals by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade drones in South Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Forces: A RUF milblogger ("Дневник Десантника🇷🇺") posted thermal drone footage showing a damaged/destroyed armored vehicle, likely a tank, indicating recent combat losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF loss; LOW CONFIDENCE on specific unit/location). Colonelcassad (RUF milblogger) promotes a Russian soldier (call sign "Snegovik") who is commander of a Nona-S self-propelled gun, highlighting claimed successes against "enemy manpower" and a boat on the Dnipro River. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF promotion; LOW on veracity). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RUF milblogger) posted a video from "fighters of the assault battalion" requesting donations for drones, featuring individuals with a combined Serbian/Russian flag, indicating continued reliance on volunteer/private funding and highlighting connections with pro-Serbian elements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Alex Parker Returns (RUF milblogger) claims a "full recording of the epic undermining of the UAF in Kharkiv," suggesting ongoing tactical engagements and IO.
  • Information Operations (CRITICAL ESCALATION CONTINUED): RUF milbloggers (Рыбарь, Басурин о главном, Операция Z, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, Воин DV, Alex Parker Returns, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) and state media (ТАСС) are publishing content focused on:
    • Exaggerated "Iran-Israel" Conflict & Nuclear Narrative: Рыбарь continues to push "Black Africa Pain Points" (diversionary content). TASS carries multiple Putin quotes on Iran's right to peaceful nuclear tech, but Russia's opposition to WMD proliferation and IAEA having no evidence of Iranian nuclear weapons. Putin also stated the fatwa against nuclear weapons in Iran is "very important." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF OSINT) reports an Israeli Defence Minister claim of a Palestinian IRGC unit head killed in Iran, adding another layer to the narrative. Операция Z (via "Военкоры Русской Весны") disseminates a video from "Tehran police" showing interrogations of alleged Mossad spies sentenced to death, explicitly labeled "Israel-Iran." This intensifies the fabricated conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims; EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity/authenticity of Iranian content).
    • Justification for War & Annexation: Басурин о главном amplifies Alexey Chadaev (NPC "Ushkuynik" CEO) on the importance of "Russian world" and "Russianness," implicitly supporting expansionist rhetoric (from previous report). TASS reports on Minstroy RF's discussion of support for businesses in "Donbas and Novorossiya," reinforcing claims of integration. TASS also showcased "Putin Team Russia" merchandise at the SPIEF-2025, promoting nationalistic branding. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF messaging).
    • Internal Security & Stability: TASS reports on a proposal for mandatory fingerprinting of migrants at Russian airports (Nilov), indicating focus on domestic security and control (from previous report). The Altai protest (ASTRA) against local government reforms shows internal dissent (from previous report). TASS also shows video from the SPIEF-2025, attempting to project economic stability and normalcy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS promotes Russian science and education via merchandise at SPIEF, projecting a positive national image.
    • Casualty Repatriation as IO: DeepState reports that Russia is "turning the repatriation of the dead into a tool of war and manipulation" (from previous report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This suggests exploitation of casualties for propaganda.
    • NATO Discord/Weakness: Операция Z (via "Военкоры Русской Весны") disseminates an image from Foreign Affairs titled "Close NATO's Door to Ukraine," attempting to exploit Western anxieties about direct conflict with Russia and sow discord regarding Ukraine's NATO aspirations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF messaging).
    • US Political Interference: РБК-Україна reports Trump's statement on Ukraine-Russia negotiations making "little progress," reflecting a potential narrative exploited by RUF to highlight perceived Western disunity or ineffectiveness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS notes Trump's nomination for Nobel Peace Prize by Pakistan, which could be used to frame him as a peace broker aligned with RUF narratives.
• Ukrainian Internal Economic Information: The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) again raised the Euro exchange rate to a record high (from previous report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This impacts national economy but not directly military operations.

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Conduct immediate Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the Kremenchuk and Kherson strikes. Determine specific targets (military, industrial, civilian, energy infrastructure), the exact number of munitions used, and the extent of damage. Confirm the use of cluster-type munitions (metal balls) and their impact. Assess if the Kremenchuk strike on energy infrastructure is part of a renewed campaign targeting energy. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, OSINT, GEOINT, IMINT).
• CRITICAL: Analyze the authenticity and source of the new "Tehran police" video pushed by Операция Z. Determine if it is manipulated footage or genuinely from Iranian sources, and how Russia acquired/repurposed it. Assess its impact on the fabricated "Iran-Israel" narrative. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, FORENSIC ANALYSIS).
• HIGH: Verify the effectiveness of RUF artillery fire targeting UAF drone teams in the Polohy direction and the claimed destruction of Starlink terminals in South Donetsk. Assess any impact on UAF drone operations and communications. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, BDA, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Verify RUF claims of "epic undermining of UAF in Kharkiv" and the claimed capture of Moskovka. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: GEOINT, IMINT, HUMINT).
• MEDIUM: Monitor Russian domestic media for any shifts in messaging regarding the war in Ukraine, especially related to the Putin quote on "all of Ukraine is ours" (from previous report) and new rhetoric from figures like Alexey Chadaev. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• MEDIUM: Assess the internal political and social impact of the Altai protests on the wider Russian populace and state stability. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• MEDIUM: Clarify the specific unit affiliation and purpose of the "МИРОТВОРЕЦ" (Peacemaker) patch identified on the "Rubizh" Brigade (NGU) individual. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Air/Missile/Drone Capabilities: RUF has demonstrated the capability to conduct large-scale, multi-wave combined drone and missile attacks on central Ukrainian cities (Kremenchuk), including advanced missile types (Kinzhal, ballistic), overwhelming UAF air defenses through saturation. The confirmed use of cluster-type munitions (metal balls) indicates a deliberate intent to maximize civilian casualties. Renewed targeting of energy infrastructure in Kremenchuk points to a sustained campaign against critical infrastructure. Continued use of FPV drones and Lancets confirms sustained capability in these areas. RUF artillery can actively target UAF drone teams, and drones are used to target critical communication systems (Starlink). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ground Capabilities: RUF maintains the capability for high-intensity, attritional ground assaults in the east (Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar) and is increasingly active on the Sumy axis. While facing attrition, they retain the ability to conduct localized raids and establish ground control in contested areas. The presence of volunteer battalions relying on donations indicates some sustainment challenges but continued operational capacity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Information Warfare Capabilities (CRITICAL ESCALATION CONTINUED): RUF's IO apparatus is highly sophisticated and audacious, capable of real-time generation and repurposing of seemingly "live" or "official" video "evidence" for false-flag scenarios (e.g., new "Iran-Israel" content from "Tehran police"). They effectively combine military "success" narratives, soldier resilience stories, and domestic stability messaging, while actively pushing maximalist territorial claims ("all of Ukraine is ours" - from previous report), exploiting casualty repatriation for propaganda, and strategically exploiting Western political discourse (NATO, Trump statements). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Intentions: RUF intends to:
  • Degrade Ukrainian Industrial/Logistical Capacity, Energy Grid, and Civilian Morale: The Kremenchuk strike, particularly with the use of anti-personnel cluster-type munitions and targeting of energy infrastructure, is a clear attempt to terrorize the civilian population, hit industrial/logistical targets, and disrupt energy supply. Continued heavy shelling of Kherson demonstrates intent to inflict damage on liberated territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Counter UAF Drone Dominance & Communications: By actively targeting UAF drone teams with artillery (Polohy) and Starlink terminals with drones (South Donetsk), RUF aims to degrade a key UAF advantage and communication backbone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Sustain Kinetic Pressure Across All Axes: Maintain attritional pressure in the east (Kharkiv, Donetsk) and continue targeted strikes across central and southern Ukraine (Kremenchuk, Kherson). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Completely Fabricate Global Crises to Divert Attention & Influence Policy: The intensified, visually-supported "Iran-Israel" fabrication is the primary strategic IO effort to draw global attention, resources, and policy away from Ukraine. Putin's statements on Iran's nuclear program further contextualize this. This campaign has proven effective (EU oil price cap delay from previous report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Justify Prolonged War & Annexation: Putin's rhetoric (via Basurin) explicitly states maximalist territorial claims, setting conditions for indefinite conflict and justifying annexation (from previous report). New rhetoric from figures like Chadaev reinforces the "Russian world" narrative. Minstroy RF discussions on "Donbas and Novorossiya" support this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Maintain Internal Cohesion & Control: Manage domestic perception of security (fingerprinting migrants) and promote soldier resilience, while suppressing dissent (Altai protests, treason arrests). Promote nationalistic brands (Putin Team Russia) and scientific endeavors to project strength. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Exploit Western Disunity: Actively leverage Western media discussions (Foreign Affairs on NATO, Trump statements) to promote narratives of allied fear, division, and ineffectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF:
  • Expanded Target Set for Mass Strikes & Munition Choice: The Kremenchuk attack, a large-scale, combined arms (missile/drone including Kinzhal and ballistic) strike on a major central Ukrainian city, using munitions with anti-personnel fragments and confirmed targeting of energy infrastructure, represents an expansion of RUF's high-volume kinetic pressure and a deliberate increase in lethality against civilian populations and critical energy infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Direct Counter-Drone Artillery Tactics & Anti-Starlink: Explicit RUF messaging on targeting "presumed enemy UAV calculations" and claims of Starlink destruction indicate a direct tactical adaptation to UAF drone effectiveness and communications. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • New Level of IO Fabrication (Video Re-purposing & Alleged Middle East Deaths): The "Iran-Israel" fabrication now includes new, highly specific, and seemingly "live" video "evidence" (e.g., "Tehran police" interrogations), and reports of alleged specific deaths (Palestinian IRGC head killed in Iran), indicating a significant investment in and refinement of this strategic deception, potentially through repurposing or fabricating footage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Exploitation of Casualty Repatriation: DeepState's report on Russia using casualty repatriation as an IO tool indicates a new adaptation in propaganda (from previous report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Integrated Ground-IO: RUF milbloggers are quick to post claimed "successes" like the "epic undermining of UAF in Kharkiv," integrating tactical claims with immediate propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: UAF General Staff provides consistent updates, including map changes (DeepState), indicating continuous battlefield monitoring and adjustment to RUF actions. UAF's 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade demonstrates continued effective drone strikes on RUF armor. DShV training imagery indicates focus on core combat skills. The 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade's successful raid on Lyman direction shows continued tactical offensive capabilities. NGU's "Rubizh" Brigade collecting funds for losses indicates adaptation to sustained combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: The scale of the Kremenchuk attack (dozens of munitions including advanced types) confirms robust supply chains for missiles and drones. Continued ground and artillery operations also point to sustained logistics. The "assault battalion" requesting donations for drones suggests some units are still reliant on external funding for certain equipment, indicating a potential gap in centralized supply for specific capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reporting on Minstroy RF support for businesses in occupied territories implies efforts to integrate and rebuild the supply base there.
• UAF: Sustained defensive operations and active drone use imply adequate logistics for now. The "Rubizh" Brigade's fundraising for lost equipment highlights the ongoing need for materiel and the decentralized nature of some sustainment efforts.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: RUF C2 effectively coordinated a significant combined arms strike on Kremenchuk, demonstrating operational reach and the ability to conduct complex, multi-asset attacks. Their IO C2 is also highly effective in generating and disseminating sophisticated disinformation, now including repurposed video and leveraging global political narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: UAF C2 maintains effective intelligence gathering and public reporting, demonstrating continued awareness and control. Successful drone operations (46th Brigade) and ground raids (63rd Brigade) indicate effective tactical C2. The establishment of "Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems" reflects strategic C2 adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Assess the long-term sustainability of RUF's missile and drone production/stockpiles, especially for Kinzhals and ballistic missiles, to support sustained mass attacks like Kremenchuk and potential new energy infrastructure targeting. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, TECHINT, OSINT).
• CRITICAL: Determine if the Kremenchuk strike signifies a new strategic axis of attack or merely an opportunistic target of opportunity, and specifically, if it targets critical infrastructure beyond just terror. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, GEOINT, BDA).
• HIGH: Analyze the specific technical capabilities and vulnerabilities of RUF's new "Tehran police" video for the fabricated Iran-Israel conflict to assist in rapid debunking. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: FORENSIC ANALYSIS).
• HIGH: Assess the operational impact on UAF communications if RUF claims of Starlink terminal destruction are confirmed. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, TECHINT, HUMINT).
• MEDIUM: Analyze the prevalence and impact of volunteer/private funding for RUF combat units, specifically for drones, to assess whether this indicates gaps in centralized RUF logistics or an additional funding stream. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains an active defensive posture across all axes, evidenced by the response to the Kremenchuk attack, ongoing defense in the east (Kharkiv, Donetsk), and active ground operations (Lyman). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Readiness: UAF appears to maintain a high state of readiness, with continuous engagements, active air defense responses to mass attacks (Kremenchuk interception rate), and ongoing training (DShV fire training). The ability of the 63rd Brigade to conduct successful raids demonstrates readiness for tactical offensive actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes: UAF continues to provide regular updates via General Staff, indicating sustained control of information and battlefield awareness. The successful interception of "most" munitions over Poltava region during the Kremenchuk attack showcases UAF AD capabilities despite saturation attacks. Successful drone strikes by the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade against RUF armor. The 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade's successful raid on Lyman direction, resulting in POWs and KIA, demonstrates effective ground tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Setbacks: The massive strike on Kremenchuk, despite AD success, indicates RUF's ability to overwhelm defenses and cause casualties/damage, particularly with the use of anti-personnel fragments and renewed targeting of energy infrastructure. One person injured in Poltava. Heavy shelling in Kherson. Continued RUF pressure on Kharkiv Oblast. "Rubizh" Brigade's fundraising indicates equipment losses.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense (CRITICAL): Urgent requirement for even more robust and layered air defense systems to counter large-scale, combined missile and drone attacks that can overwhelm current AD capabilities, even in cities not on the immediate front lines (e.g., Kremenchuk). This includes anti-ballistic and anti-Kinzhal capabilities, as well as counter-cluster munition capabilities if feasible, and enhanced protection for energy infrastructure.
• Counter-Drone (CRITICAL): Increased need for counter-FPV and anti-loitering munition capabilities as RUF adapts by explicitly targeting UAF drone teams and critical communications like Starlink. Continued supply of offensive drones is also vital (as demonstrated by 46th Brigade).
• Counter-IO (CRITICAL): Sustained and enhanced resources are required for developing and disseminating rapid, comprehensive counter-narratives to combat Russia's increasingly sophisticated information warfare, especially the real-time fabrication and repurposing of "visual evidence" for false-flag scenarios, maximalist territorial claims, and exploitation of Western political discourse.
• Materiel Sustainment: Ongoing need for resupply of equipment and materiel to units like the "Rubizh" Brigade that are experiencing losses.

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Assess the operational impact of the Kremenchuk and Kherson attacks on UAF logistics, civilian infrastructure, and energy supply, considering the reported damage and use of anti-personnel munitions. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, OSINT, HUMINT).
• MEDIUM: Evaluate the resilience of UAF drone teams and Starlink communications against direct RUF artillery targeting and drone strikes in sectors like Polohy and South Donetsk. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, SIGINT).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian:
  • Aggressive Iran-Israel Fabrication (CRITICAL - NEW VIDEO "EVIDENCE" & Alleged Deaths): Операция Z (via "Военкоры Русской Весны") is now presenting a video from "Tehran police" showing interrogations of alleged Mossad spies, explicitly labeled as "Israel-Iran." This represents a new and dangerous level of deception, attempting to make the fabrication appear real-time and kinetic through "official" sources. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF OSINT) reporting on alleged killing of Palestinian IRGC head in Iran by Israeli Defense Minister claims adds another layer to this narrative. Рыбарь continues to push the narrative with broader geopolitical content. Putin's statements on Iran's nuclear program and the fatwa serve to frame this narrative for a global audience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims; EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity/authenticity of video content/reported deaths).
  • Military Success Projection & Soldier Resilience: The RUF milblogger "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts thermal footage of a destroyed RUF armored vehicle, which could be an attempt to normalize losses or highlight the intensity of combat. Басурин о главном pushes the "Russian world" narrative to justify aggression. Colonelcassad promotes a "hero" artilleryman, projecting professionalism and effectiveness. Alex Parker Returns claims "epic undermining of UAF in Kharkiv." Воин DV claims destruction of Starlink terminals. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's video shows an "assault battalion" seeking donations, normalizing volunteer support.
  • Domestic Control & Stability: TASS reports on mandatory fingerprinting for migrants, indicating a focus on internal security. TASS's video from SPIEF-2025 attempts to project economic stability and normalcy despite the conflict, including promotion of "Putin Team Russia" brand and science. The Altai protest reported by ASTRA suggests underlying domestic dissent. DeepState highlights Russia's manipulation of casualty repatriation, indicating a cynical use of human suffering for IO. TASS reporting on Minstroy RF support for occupied territories projects a sense of rebuilding and integration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • NATO Discord/Western Weakness: Операция Z (via "Военкоры Русской Весны") uses a "Foreign Affairs" image to argue for closing NATO's door to Ukraine, attempting to exploit Western fears of direct conflict. РБК-Україна reports Trump's minimal progress comment on negotiations, which RUF can exploit. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS on Trump's Nobel Peace Prize nomination could also be leveraged by RUF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ukrainian:
  • Transparency & Battlefield Updates: UAF General Staff and Оперативний ЗСУ continue daily, transparent reports on military operations, including maps from DeepState. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна confirm the Kremenchuk attack, while ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights the anti-personnel nature of the munitions used and heavy Kherson shelling, exposing RUF war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Resilience & Humanitarian: ASTRA's report on the cat found alive in Kyiv rubble subtly highlights the civilian toll but also resilience. STERNENKO's post about the injured person in Poltava focuses on civilian impact. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's video of successful drone strikes and 63rd Brigade's raid projects UAF effectiveness. DShV's training photos project professionalism and readiness. The daily minute of silence by Zaporizhzhia OVA and Оперативний ЗСУ reinforces national unity and remembrance. The NGU "Rubizh" Brigade's fundraising drive shows resilience despite losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Counter-Propaganda: Proactive reporting helps expose Russian lies, though the sheer volume and increasing sophistication of RUF disinformation (especially new video fabrications) remains a significant challenge.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Public morale will be severely tested by the large-scale attack on Kremenchuk, particularly with the confirmed use of anti-personnel munitions and targeting of energy infrastructure, which targets the civilian population directly. The constant threat of attacks across the country (Sumy, Nikopolshchyna, Kharkiv, Kherson) continues to exert pressure. Resilience is observed through military unit reporting of successes (46th Brigade, 63rd Brigade) and continued training. Daily remembrance ceremonies reinforce unity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian: RUF's internal messaging focuses on soldier resilience, "successes," and state control, likely to counter potential fatigue and maintain support for the war. The direct annexationist rhetoric may also be aimed at rallying hardline support. Internal protests in Altai demonstrate that domestic dissent, while currently localized, exists and challenges the regime's narrative of unity. Dependence of some combat units on donations (assault battalion) could indicate morale issues or logistical strain if widely known internally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Diversion Effectiveness (CRITICAL): RUF's continued and now visually supported fabrication of the "Iran-Israel crisis" (e.g., "Tehran police" video, alleged IRGC death) is designed to maximize international diversion and has already shown success (EU oil price cap delay from previous report). This new level of "evidence" will likely intensify the distraction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF diversion efforts).
• Legitimization of Annexation: Putin's direct claim that "all of Ukraine is ours" (via Basurin, from previous report) aims to shift international discourse towards the permanent annexation of Ukrainian territory, undermining any peace efforts not aligned with Russian maximalist goals. Putin's statements on Iran's nuclear program appear to be part of a broader strategy to shape geopolitical narratives to Russia's advantage. Minstroy RF discussions on "Donbas and Novorossiya" support the perceived legitimacy of these annexations internally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Exploiting Western Divisions: RUF actively tries to exploit divisions within NATO (e.g., Foreign Affairs article) and leverage statements from international figures (Trump on negotiations) to undermine support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Monitor international media and diplomatic responses to Russia's new, more detailed and visually-backed fabrications related to the "Iran-Israel conflict." Assess if this new level of "evidence" is causing greater confusion or acceptance of the false narrative. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Analyze the impact of Putin's explicit annexationist statements and the "Russian world" rhetoric on international diplomatic efforts and support for Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Assess the effectiveness of RUF's efforts to exploit Western political discourse and internal divisions (e.g., Foreign Affairs, Trump statements) in diminishing international support for Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained and Expanded Kinetic Attacks with High-Volume Combined Munitions, featuring Anti-Personnel Elements and Energy Infrastructure Targeting: RUF will continue to launch mass missile and drone attacks, including large-scale combined operations (missile + drone, including Kinzhal and ballistic) on urban centers across Ukraine. Expect expansion of the target set to cities like Kremenchuk that are critical logistical, industrial, or energy hubs beyond immediate front lines, with continued use of anti-personnel munitions (e.g., metal balls). Expect continued focus on attritional ground operations on the Eastern Front (Donetsk), supported by drone and artillery fire. RUF will increase kinetic pressure on liberated territories like Kherson. RUF will continue to disseminate highly exaggerated claims of UAF losses via official channels and milbloggers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Intensified & Globally Directed Information Warfare with Real-Time Fabricated "Evidence" and Maximalist Claims: RUF will further escalate its information warfare by creating new, increasingly sophisticated and seemingly "live" or "real-time" fabricated "visual evidence" for false-flag scenarios (e.g., the "Iran-Israel" conflict, leveraging repurposed or fake "official" videos and alleged specific events/deaths). This will include continued pre-emptive narratives designed to justify future kinetic actions or discredit Ukrainian economic/military viability. RUF will also continue to amplify narratives that sow discord and question the resolve or unity of Western alliances (e.g., NATO's role), and exploit statements from Western politicians. RUF milbloggers will likely continue to normalize military logistics and operations through visual content and casual commentary, and promote direct annexationist claims and "Russian world" ideology. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Continued Pressure on Sumy Axis with Probes and Shaping Operations: RUF will likely maintain and potentially increase ground probes and shaping operations (KAB, missile strikes) on the Sumy axis to keep UAF forces fixed and test defenses, setting conditions for a potential future offensive. (HIGH-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Multi-Domain Offensive with Global Deception, Cyberattacks, and False-Flag Operations, Leveraging Anti-Personnel Strikes and Expanded Energy Targeting: RUF initiates a large-scale ground offensive on a new axis (e.g., Sumy/Chernihiv towards Kyiv or a major thrust on Zaporizhzhia), aiming for a significant breakthrough, supported by simultaneous, overwhelming multi-domain attacks (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, mass KAB and Shahed UAV attacks targeting strategic, economic, and energy infrastructure, cyberattacks targeting UAF C2 and critical infrastructure, and Starlink communications). This offensive would be accompanied by coordinated false-flag terror attacks within Ukraine or a neighboring state, specifically targeting civilians with anti-personnel munitions and hitting critical energy nodes, falsely attributed to internal Ukrainian dissent or "terrorist groups," amplified by RUF IO channels with new, fabricated "visual evidence" (e.g., the "Tel Aviv" video repurposed, "Tehran police" video adapted, or similar content generated). This will include intensified dissemination of fabricated POW abuse claims or claims of atrocities committed by UAF against civilians, with manipulated visual and testimonial evidence, likely supported by new milblogger narratives. Concurrently, RUF will launch a massive, globally coordinated cyberattack against critical infrastructure in a NATO or EU member state, falsely attributing it to "Iranian" or "Israeli" actors within the manufactured Middle East crisis (potentially leveraging new "visual evidence" like the "Tel Aviv" video or "Tehran police" video), or falsely claiming these are attacks from Ukrainian "terrorist" elements. This aims to paralyze key Western response mechanisms, divert all attention and resources to the fabricated "crisis" and terror events, and force a Western response that directly benefits Russia's geopolitical objectives in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 6-12 hours):
  • RUF: Expect continued, high-volume KAB/UAV/FPV drone/Lancet activity in Eastern, Central, and Northern Oblasts, specifically focusing on Nikopolshchyna, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava (Kremenchuk), and Kherson as target areas. Further amplification of the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" with new, more audacious fabricated "evidence," including new "visuals" and alleged specific events. Continued efforts to sow discord within NATO via state media and proxy channels, combined with explicit annexationist rhetoric and exploitation of Western political discourse.
  • UAF Decision Point: Conduct rapid BDA on Kremenchuk and Kherson strikes to understand intent and impact, particularly the confirmed use of anti-personnel fragments and energy targeting. Maintain highest AD readiness, especially in Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, and Kherson Oblasts under KAB/UAV/FPV/Lancet/missile threat, prioritizing counter-ballistic and counter-Kinzhal capabilities and critical energy infrastructure protection. Intensify ISR on Northern (Sumy/Chernihiv) and Eastern (Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk) axes for early warning of any ground force buildup. Immediately and publicly debunk new RUF IO fabrications, particularly new "visual evidence" for the Iran-Israel crisis and efforts to undermine NATO, and firmly reject annexationist claims and "Russian world" ideology.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: Potential for another large-scale missile strike or mass UAV attack, potentially targeting other critical logistical/industrial/energy nodes in central or southern Ukraine, likely with anti-personnel elements. Continued high-intensity ground and air pressure. RUF IO will seek new "developments" in its manufactured Middle East narrative and human rights accusations, potentially linked to false-flag events, and intensify efforts to exploit perceived weaknesses or divisions within NATO, while normalizing annexationist rhetoric. Expect RUF internal security efforts (e.g., migrant fingerprinting) to be framed as necessary responses to "Ukrainian threats."
  • UAF Decision Point: Prioritize ISR on all RUF airfields and ground force concentrations for early warning of major offensive operations. Engage international partners to directly and unequivocally counter the extreme RUF IO, providing irrefutable evidence of the deception and its strategic implications. Reinforce defensive positions, particularly in Sumy and Kharkiv, and prepare flexible reserves. Enhance internal security and counter-intelligence efforts to identify and neutralize potential terror cells or saboteurs following RUF's public promotion of such tactics. Address potential impacts of economic factors (e.g., Euro exchange rate) on civilian morale. Continue fundraising efforts for lost equipment and materiel.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source ISR on RUF Air and Missile Capabilities targeting central and southern Ukraine (e.g., Kremenchuk, Kherson), to identify launch patterns, munition types (especially Kinzhal and ballistic), and targeting logic, with specific emphasis on confirmed use of anti-personnel elements and energy infrastructure. Focus on identifying specific missile launch sites, drone assembly/launch zones, and logistics chains to enable interdiction. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: All-source intelligence, GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT, BDA).
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Establish a dedicated, 24/7, multi-agency counter-disinformation task force to rapidly analyze and debunk Russia's new "visual evidence" for the fabricated Iran-Israel conflict (e.g., the "Tehran police" video from Операция Z). This cell must provide immediate, evidence-based counter-narratives to international partners and media, specifically disproving the authenticity and origin of the "visuals" and the veracity of alleged kinetic events. Simultaneously, actively counter and expose RUF's maximalist territorial claims, "Russian world" ideology, and efforts to exploit or amplify narratives that sow discord within Western alliances, including NATO and Western political figures. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, FORENSIC ANALYSIS of video/image evidence, LINGUISTIC ANALYSIS).
3. URGENT/CRITICAL: Intensify HUMINT and SIGINT collection regarding RUF's tactical aviation and drone operations to understand their capabilities, intentions, and vulnerabilities, especially concerning Lancet, KAB, and FPV drone strikes impacting civilians and now the explicit targeting of UAF drone teams and Starlink communications. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, SIGINT, TECHINT).
4. URGENT: Prioritize ISR on the Lyman direction and other active UAF tactical offensive zones to assess RUF's ability to reinforce or counter UAF raids, and identify RUF vulnerabilities exploited by UAF. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, GEOINT, OSINT).

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain highest AD alert posture across all Oblasts, especially Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava (Kremenchuk), and Kherson, against persistent multi-directional KAB, UAV, FPV drone, and missile threats, including ballistic and Kinzhal. Prioritize the deployment of mobile AD and counter-drone units to vulnerable areas and critical infrastructure, especially energy facilities.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Accelerate the integration and deployment of advanced counter-UAV and EW systems, particularly those effective against FPV drones and loitering munitions like Lancet and large "Shahed" waves, and anti-Starlink capabilities, to frontline units and critical infrastructure defense, specifically for UAF drone teams.
3. URGENT: Reinforce passive air defense measures and provide updated force protection guidance for civilian populations and first responders in areas subject to frequent KAB/UAV/FPV/Lancet/missile attacks, especially considering the use of anti-personnel cluster-type munitions. Ensure emergency services have robust communication and protection protocols.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain a robust defensive posture and combat readiness across all Eastern Front axes, including Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk, and reinforce positions in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kherson Oblasts. Prepare for potential MDCOA ground offensive in the North or a major push in the South.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Prepare and position flexible strategic reserves for rapid deployment to any axis facing a major RUF ground offensive. Expedite engineering and fortification efforts in potential breakthrough areas.
3. ONGOING: Continue to inflict maximum personnel and equipment losses on RUF through effective defensive operations, counter-battery fire, and precision strikes (e.g., 46th Brigade drone operations, 63rd Brigade raids), leveraging intelligence from drone operations and reported attrition rates. Ensure robust counter-battery capabilities to mitigate RUF targeting of UAF drone teams.
4. ONGOING: Continue to support and equip units like the "Rubizh" Brigade that are actively engaged and experiencing equipment losses, through both centralized supply and facilitating volunteer efforts.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an unprecedented, globally coordinated information campaign to expose and directly counter Russia's new, more audacious fabrications, particularly the "Iran-Israel crisis" and any new "visual evidence" for it (e.g., "Tehran police" video, alleged specific deaths). Emphasize the direct link between this destabilization and Russia's military objectives in Ukraine. Simultaneously, forcefully reject and expose Russia's maximalist territorial claims (e.g., "all of Ukraine is ours") and "Russian world" rhetoric as a direct violation of international law and a justification for continued aggression, not a basis for peace. Directly counter RUF's efforts to exploit Western political discourse and internal divisions.
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Develop and widely disseminate robust counter-narratives to Russia's escalating dehumanizing rhetoric and war crime justifications, including the use of anti-personnel munitions against civilians and targeting of energy infrastructure. Specifically and immediately debunk new milblogger narratives that showcase "victories" or justify destruction, as well as official exaggerated combat claims and the exploitation of casualty repatriation. Engage international human rights organizations and religious leaders to condemn such language and warn of potential atrocities.
3. URGENT: Engage international partners to re-focus attention and aid specifically on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, explicitly countering any narrative that shifts focus to fabricated crises or human rights accusations, or seeks to undermine the unity and purpose of international alliances like NATO. Proactively address and seek to mitigate the impact of internal RUF IO and dissent (e.g., Altai protests).
4. ONGOING: Continue to document and disseminate evidence of RUF war crimes and internal issues (e.g., economic challenges, internal military cohesion efforts, domestic dissent, reliance on private donations for combat units) to maintain international pressure and discredit RUF's narratives. Highlight UAF's successes in counter-drone innovation, effective defensive actions, and tactical offensive operations to project strength and resilience, while actively supporting public engagement calls and maintaining transparency on economic realities. Continue to promote national unity and remembrance (e.g., minute of silence).

END OF REPORT.