Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 210600Z JUN 25 CLASSIFICATION: SECRET // NOFORN REPORTING UNIT: G2 ANALYST, UAF HIGH COMMAND

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast): Confirmed massive RUF combined drone and missile attack overnight, including "Shahed" UAVs, cruise missiles, "Kinzhal" hypersonic missiles, and ballistic missiles. Initial reports indicated "dozens of explosions" (local media) or "around 50 explosions" (RUF sources), now refined to "not less than 40 explosions" (Оперативний ЗСУ). Fragments found "stuffed with metal balls" (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) designed to maximize civilian casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This confirms a significant escalation of kinetic pressure on a central Ukrainian city and indicates deliberate targeting of civilians.
• Polohy Direction (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): RUF 35th Army artillery conducting fire on "presumed enemy UAV calculations." (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity/effectiveness). This indicates RUF is actively targeting UAF drone operations in this sector.
• Kiev (Kyiv Oblast): ASTRA reports a cat found alive under the rubble of a missile-destroyed house. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This is likely a delayed report from a previous RUF missile strike, serving as a humanitarian/morale note.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Continued RUF attacks using FPV drones and artillery (from previous report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sumy Oblast: RUF "Lancet" strike on a multi-story residential building, injuring one civilian (from previous report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Local authorities report the situation is "controlled" as of morning 21 JUN (from previous report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kharkiv Oblast: 6 settlements subjected to enemy strikes over the past day (Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RUF Territory (RF): Ministry of Defense (MoD) RF claims five Ukrainian UAVs intercepted overnight over Russian regions (from previous report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity/number). Tambov Oblast (RF) reports a man detained on suspicion of treason (from RUF milblogger). (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim). Altai region (RF) is experiencing a large public protest against the liquidation of local councils (ASTRA). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• No significant changes impacting operations reported. Night operations confirmed by video evidence of Kremenchuk attacks.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
  • General Staff: Issued daily operational information as of 08:00 21 JUN 2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This includes map updates (DeepState) and summary briefings (Operational ZSU), indicating continued situational awareness and transparent reporting. UAF forces maintained defense against a massive overnight strike on Kremenchuk, with the Poltava Oblast Military Administration (OVA) reporting most munitions were intercepted by air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade (DShV): Published video showing drone-assisted engagements against RUF military vehicles (tanks) on a dirt road, resulting in explosions and smoke, indicating successful strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This confirms active UAF drone operations and effective targeting.
  • Air Assault Forces of Ukraine (DShV): Released images showcasing fire training, emphasizing "fire training is the basis of survivability and effectiveness on the battlefield." This indicates ongoing training and readiness maintenance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • "Grouping of Forces of Unmanned Systems": Previously established, this new structure is crucial for UAF counter-drone operations and offensive drone capabilities, which are now being directly challenged by RUF artillery targeting (Polohy direction).
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Air/Missile/Drone Operations: Executed a massive combined drone (Shahed) and missile (cruise, Kinzhal, ballistic) attack on Kremenchuk. Evidence of fragments "stuffed with metal balls" indicates deliberate use of cluster-type munitions designed for anti-personnel effects. Continued use of FPV drones in Dnipropetrovsk direction (Nikopolshchyna) and Lancet loitering munitions in Sumy (from previous report). RUF 35th Army artillery actively targeting UAF drone teams in Polohy direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Forces: A RUF milblogger ("Дневник Десантника🇷🇺") posted thermal drone footage showing a damaged/destroyed armored vehicle, likely a tank, indicating recent combat losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF loss; LOW CONFIDENCE on specific unit/location).
  • Information Operations (CRITICAL ESCALATION CONTINUED): RUF milbloggers (Рыбарь, Басурин о главном, Операция Z, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) and state media (ТАСС) are publishing content focused on:
    • Exaggerated "Iran-Israel" Conflict & Nuclear Narrative: Рыбарь continues to push "Black Africa Pain Points" (diversionary content). TASS carries multiple Putin quotes on Iran's right to peaceful nuclear tech, but Russia's opposition to WMD proliferation and IAEA having no evidence of Iranian nuclear weapons. Операция Z (via "Военкоры Русской Весны") disseminates a video from "Tehran police" showing interrogations of alleged Mossad spies sentenced to death, explicitly labeled "Israel-Iran." This intensifies the fabricated conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims; EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity/authenticity of Iranian content).
    • Justification for War & Annexation: Басурин о главном amplifies Alexey Chadaev (NPC "Ushkuynik" CEO) on the importance of "Russian world" and "Russianness," implicitly supporting expansionist rhetoric. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF messaging).
    • Internal Security & Stability: TASS reports on a proposal for mandatory fingerprinting of migrants at Russian airports (Nilov), indicating focus on domestic security and control. The Altai protest (ASTRA) against local government reforms shows internal dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS also shows video from the SPIEF-2025, attempting to project economic stability and normalcy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Casualty Repatriation as IO: DeepState reports that Russia is "turning the repatriation of the dead into a tool of war and manipulation." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This suggests exploitation of casualties for propaganda.
• Ukrainian Internal Economic Information: The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) again raised the Euro exchange rate to a record high. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This impacts national economy but not directly military operations.

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Conduct immediate Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the Kremenchuk strike. Determine specific targets (military, industrial, civilian), the exact number of munitions used, and the extent of damage. Confirm the use of cluster-type munitions (metal balls) and their impact. Assess if this was a preparatory strike for ground operations or purely a terror/attrition attack. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, OSINT, GEOINT, IMINT).
• CRITICAL: Analyze the authenticity and source of the new "Tehran police" video pushed by Операция Z. Determine if it is manipulated footage or genuinely from Iranian sources, and how Russia acquired/repurposed it. Assess its impact on the fabricated "Iran-Israel" narrative. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, FORENSIC ANALYSIS).
• HIGH: Verify the effectiveness of RUF artillery fire targeting UAF drone teams in the Polohy direction. Assess any impact on UAF drone operations. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, BDA, HUMINT).
• MEDIUM: Monitor Russian domestic media for any shifts in messaging regarding the war in Ukraine, especially related to the Putin quote on "all of Ukraine is ours" (from previous report) and new rhetoric from figures like Alexey Chadaev. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• MEDIUM: Assess the internal political and social impact of the Altai protests on the wider Russian populace and state stability. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Air/Missile/Drone Capabilities: RUF has demonstrated the capability to conduct large-scale, multi-wave combined drone and missile attacks on central Ukrainian cities (Kremenchuk), including advanced missile types (Kinzhal, ballistic), overwhelming UAF air defenses through saturation. The confirmed use of cluster-type munitions (metal balls) indicates a deliberate intent to maximize civilian casualties. Continued use of FPV drones and Lancets confirms sustained capability in these areas. RUF artillery can actively target UAF drone teams. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Information Warfare Capabilities (CRITICAL ESCALATION CONTINUED): RUF's IO apparatus is highly sophisticated and audacious, capable of real-time generation and repurposing of seemingly "live" or "official" video "evidence" for false-flag scenarios (e.g., new "Iran-Israel" content from "Tehran police"). They effectively combine military "success" narratives, soldier resilience stories, and domestic stability messaging, while actively pushing maximalist territorial claims ("all of Ukraine is ours" - from previous report) and leveraging casualty repatriation for propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Intentions: RUF intends to:
  • Degrade Ukrainian Industrial/Logistical Capacity and Civilian Morale: The Kremenchuk strike, particularly with the use of anti-personnel cluster-type munitions, is a clear attempt to terrorize the civilian population, hit industrial targets, and disrupt logistics (Kremenchuk is a significant transport hub). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Counter UAF Drone Dominance: By actively targeting UAF drone teams with artillery (Polohy), RUF aims to degrade a key UAF advantage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Sustain Kinetic Pressure Across All Axes: Maintain attritional pressure in the east (Kharkiv), and continue targeted strikes across central and northern Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Completely Fabricate Global Crises to Divert Attention & Influence Policy: The intensified, visually-supported "Iran-Israel" fabrication is the primary strategic IO effort to draw global attention, resources, and policy away from Ukraine. Putin's statements on Iran's nuclear program further contextualize this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Justify Prolonged War & Annexation: Putin's rhetoric (via Basurin) explicitly states maximalist territorial claims, setting conditions for indefinite conflict and justifying annexation (from previous report). New rhetoric from figures like Chadaev reinforces the "Russian world" narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Maintain Internal Cohesion & Control: Manage domestic perception of security (fingerprinting migrants) and promote soldier resilience, while suppressing dissent (Altai protests, treason arrests). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF:
  • Expanded Target Set for Mass Strikes & Munition Choice: The Kremenchuk attack, a large-scale, combined arms (missile/drone including Kinzhal and ballistic) strike on a major central Ukrainian city, using munitions with anti-personnel fragments, represents an expansion of RUF's high-volume kinetic pressure and a deliberate increase in lethality against civilian populations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Direct Counter-Drone Artillery Tactics: Explicit RUF messaging on targeting "presumed enemy UAV calculations" indicates a direct tactical adaptation to UAF drone effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • New Level of IO Fabrication (Video Re-purposing): The "Iran-Israel" fabrication now includes new, highly specific, and seemingly "live" video "evidence" (e.g., "Tehran police" interrogations), indicating a significant investment in and refinement of this strategic deception, potentially through repurposing or fabricating footage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Exploitation of Casualty Repatriation: DeepState's report on Russia using casualty repatriation as an IO tool indicates a new adaptation in propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: UAF General Staff provides consistent updates, including map changes (DeepState), indicating continuous battlefield monitoring and adjustment to RUF actions. UAF's 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade demonstrates continued effective drone strikes on RUF armor. DShV training imagery indicates focus on core combat skills. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: The scale of the Kremenchuk attack (dozens of munitions including advanced types) confirms robust supply chains for missiles and drones. Continued ground and artillery operations also point to sustained logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: Sustained defensive operations and active drone use imply adequate logistics for now.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: RUF C2 effectively coordinated a significant combined arms strike on Kremenchuk, demonstrating operational reach and the ability to conduct complex, multi-asset attacks. Their IO C2 is also highly effective in generating and disseminating sophisticated disinformation, now including repurposed video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: UAF C2 maintains effective intelligence gathering and public reporting, demonstrating continued awareness and control. Successful drone operations (46th Brigade) indicate effective tactical C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Assess the long-term sustainability of RUF's missile and drone production/stockpiles, especially for Kinzhals and ballistic missiles, to support sustained mass attacks like Kremenchuk. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, TECHINT, OSINT).
• CRITICAL: Determine if the Kremenchuk strike signifies a new strategic axis of attack or merely an opportunistic target of opportunity, and specifically, if it targets critical infrastructure beyond just terror. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, GEOINT, BDA).
• HIGH: Analyze the specific technical capabilities and vulnerabilities of RUF's new "Tehran police" video for the fabricated Iran-Israel conflict to assist in rapid debunking. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: FORENSIC ANALYSIS).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains an active defensive posture across all axes, evidenced by the response to the Kremenchuk attack and ongoing defense in the east (Kharkiv). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Readiness: UAF appears to maintain a high state of readiness, with continuous engagements, active air defense responses to mass attacks (Kremenchuk interception rate), and ongoing training (DShV fire training). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes: UAF continues to provide regular updates via General Staff, indicating sustained control of information and battlefield awareness. The successful interception of "most" munitions over Poltava region during the Kremenchuk attack showcases UAF AD capabilities despite saturation attacks. Successful drone strikes by the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade against RUF armor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Setbacks: The massive strike on Kremenchuk, despite AD success, indicates RUF's ability to overwhelm defenses and cause casualties/damage, particularly with the use of anti-personnel fragments. One person injured in Poltava. Continued RUF pressure on Kharkiv Oblast.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense (CRITICAL): Urgent requirement for even more robust and layered air defense systems to counter large-scale, combined missile and drone attacks that can overwhelm current AD capabilities, even in cities not on the immediate front lines (e.g., Kremenchuk). This includes anti-ballistic and anti-Kinzhal capabilities, as well as counter-cluster munition capabilities if feasible.
• Counter-Drone (CRITICAL): Increased need for counter-FPV and anti-loitering munition capabilities as RUF adapts by explicitly targeting UAF drone teams. Continued supply of offensive drones is also vital (as demonstrated by 46th Brigade).
• Counter-IO (CRITICAL): Sustained and enhanced resources are required for developing and disseminating rapid, comprehensive counter-narratives to combat Russia's increasingly sophisticated information warfare, especially the real-time fabrication and repurposing of "visual evidence" for false-flag scenarios and maximalist territorial claims.

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Assess the operational impact of the Kremenchuk attack on UAF logistics and civilian infrastructure, considering the reported damage and use of anti-personnel munitions. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, OSINT, HUMINT).
• MEDIUM: Evaluate the resilience of UAF drone teams against direct RUF artillery targeting in sectors like Polohy. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, SIGINT).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian:
  • Aggressive Iran-Israel Fabrication (CRITICAL - NEW VIDEO "EVIDENCE"): Операция Z (via "Военкоры Русской Весны") is now presenting a video from "Tehran police" showing interrogations of alleged Mossad spies, explicitly labeled as "Israel-Iran." This represents a new and dangerous level of deception, attempting to make the fabrication appear real-time and kinetic through "official" sources. Рыбарь continues to push the narrative with broader geopolitical content. Putin's statements on Iran's nuclear program serve to frame this narrative for a global audience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims; EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity/authenticity of video content).
  • Military Success Projection & Soldier Resilience: The RUF milblogger "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts thermal footage of a destroyed RUF armored vehicle, which could be an attempt to normalize losses or highlight the intensity of combat. Басурин о главном pushes the "Russian world" narrative to justify aggression.
  • Domestic Control & Stability: TASS reports on mandatory fingerprinting for migrants, indicating a focus on internal security. TASS's video from SPIEF-2025 attempts to project economic stability and normalcy despite the conflict. The Altai protest reported by ASTRA suggests underlying domestic dissent. DeepState highlights Russia's manipulation of casualty repatriation, indicating a cynical use of human suffering for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ukrainian:
  • Transparency & Battlefield Updates: UAF General Staff and Оперативний ЗСУ continue daily, transparent reports on military operations, including maps from DeepState. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна confirm the Kremenchuk attack, while ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights the anti-personnel nature of the munitions used, exposing RUF war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Resilience & Humanitarian: ASTRA's report on the cat found alive in Kyiv rubble subtly highlights the civilian toll but also resilience. STERNENKO's post about the injured person in Poltava focuses on civilian impact. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's video of successful drone strikes projects UAF effectiveness. DShV's training photos project professionalism and readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Counter-Propaganda: Proactive reporting helps expose Russian lies, though the sheer volume and increasing sophistication of RUF disinformation (especially new video fabrications) remains a significant challenge.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Public morale will be severely tested by the large-scale attack on Kremenchuk, particularly with the confirmed use of anti-personnel munitions, which targets the civilian population directly. The constant threat of attacks across the country (Sumy, Nikopolshchyna, Kharkiv) continues to exert pressure. Resilience is observed through military unit reporting of successes (46th Brigade) and continued training. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian: RUF's internal messaging focuses on soldier resilience, "successes," and state control, likely to counter potential fatigue and maintain support for the war. The direct annexationist rhetoric may also be aimed at rallying hardline support. Internal protests in Altai demonstrate that domestic dissent, while currently localized, exists and challenges the regime's narrative of unity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Diversion Effectiveness (CRITICAL): RUF's continued and now visually supported fabrication of the "Iran-Israel crisis" (e.g., "Tehran police" video) is designed to maximize international diversion and has already shown success (EU oil price cap delay from previous report). This new level of "evidence" will likely intensify the distraction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF diversion efforts).
• Legitimization of Annexation: Putin's direct claim that "all of Ukraine is ours" (via Basurin, from previous report) aims to shift international discourse towards the permanent annexation of Ukrainian territory, undermining any peace efforts not aligned with Russian maximalist goals. Putin's statements on Iran's nuclear program appear to be part of a broader strategy to shape geopolitical narratives to Russia's advantage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Monitor international media and diplomatic responses to Russia's new, more detailed and visually-backed fabrications related to the "Iran-Israel conflict." Assess if this new level of "evidence" is causing greater confusion or acceptance of the false narrative. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Analyze the impact of Putin's explicit annexationist statements and the "Russian world" rhetoric on international diplomatic efforts and support for Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained and Expanded Kinetic Attacks with High-Volume Combined Munitions, featuring Anti-Personnel Elements: RUF will continue to launch mass missile and drone attacks, including large-scale combined operations (missile + drone, including Kinzhal and ballistic) on urban centers across Ukraine. Expect expansion of the target set to cities like Kremenchuk that are critical logistical or industrial hubs beyond immediate front lines, with continued use of anti-personnel munitions (e.g., metal balls). Expect continued focus on attritional ground operations on the Eastern Front, supported by drone and artillery fire. RUF will continue to disseminate highly exaggerated claims of UAF losses via official channels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Intensified & Globally Directed Information Warfare with Real-Time Fabricated "Evidence" and Maximalist Claims: RUF will further escalate its information warfare by creating new, increasingly sophisticated and seemingly "live" or "real-time" fabricated "visual evidence" for false-flag scenarios (e.g., the "Iran-Israel" conflict, leveraging repurposed or fake "official" videos). This will include continued pre-emptive narratives designed to justify future kinetic actions or discredit Ukrainian economic/military viability. RUF will also continue to amplify narratives that sow discord and question the resolve or unity of Western alliances (e.g., NATO's role). RUF milbloggers will likely continue to normalize military logistics and operations through visual content and casual commentary, and promote direct annexationist claims and "Russian world" ideology. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Multi-Domain Offensive with Global Deception, Cyberattacks, and False-Flag Operations, Leveraging Anti-Personnel Strikes: RUF initiates a large-scale ground offensive on a new axis (e.g., Sumy/Chernihiv towards Kyiv or a major thrust on Zaporizhzhia), aiming for a significant breakthrough, supported by simultaneous, overwhelming multi-domain attacks (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, mass KAB and Shahed UAV attacks targeting strategic and economic infrastructure, cyberattacks targeting UAF C2 and critical infrastructure). This offensive would be accompanied by coordinated false-flag terror attacks within Ukraine or a neighboring state, specifically targeting civilians with anti-personnel munitions, falsely attributed to internal Ukrainian dissent or "terrorist groups," amplified by RUF IO channels with new, fabricated "visual evidence" (e.g., the "Tel Aviv" video repurposed, "Tehran police" video adapted, or similar content generated). This will include intensified dissemination of fabricated POW abuse claims or claims of atrocities committed by UAF against civilians, with manipulated visual and testimonial evidence, likely supported by new milblogger narratives. Concurrently, RUF will launch a massive, globally coordinated cyberattack against critical infrastructure in a NATO or EU member state, falsely attributing it to "Iranian" or "Israeli" actors within the manufactured Middle East crisis (potentially leveraging new "visual evidence" like the "Tel Aviv" video or "Tehran police" video), or falsely claiming these are attacks from Ukrainian "terrorist" elements. This aims to paralyze key Western response mechanisms, divert all attention and resources to the fabricated "crisis" and terror events, and force a Western response that directly benefits Russia's geopolitical objectives in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 6-12 hours):
  • RUF: Expect continued, high-volume KAB/UAV/FPV drone/Lancet activity in Eastern, Central, and Northern Oblasts, specifically focusing on Nikopolshchyna, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Poltava (Kremenchuk) as target areas. Further amplification of the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" with new, more audacious fabricated "evidence," including new "visuals." Continued efforts to sow discord within NATO via state media and proxy channels, combined with explicit annexationist rhetoric.
  • UAF Decision Point: Conduct rapid BDA on Kremenchuk strike to understand intent and impact, particularly the confirmed use of anti-personnel fragments. Maintain highest AD readiness, especially in Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Poltava Oblasts under KAB/UAV/FPV/Lancet/missile threat, prioritizing counter-ballistic and counter-Kinzhal capabilities. Intensify ISR on Northern (Sumy/Chernihiv) and Eastern (Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk) axes for early warning of any ground force buildup. Immediately and publicly debunk new RUF IO fabrications, particularly new "visual evidence" for the Iran-Israel crisis and efforts to undermine NATO, and firmly reject annexationist claims and "Russian world" ideology.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: Potential for another large-scale missile strike or mass UAV attack, potentially targeting other critical logistical/industrial nodes in central Ukraine, likely with anti-personnel elements. Continued high-intensity ground and air pressure. RUF IO will seek new "developments" in its manufactured Middle East narrative and human rights accusations, potentially linked to false-flag events, and intensify efforts to exploit perceived weaknesses or divisions within NATO, while normalizing annexationist rhetoric. Expect RUF internal security efforts (e.g., migrant fingerprinting) to be framed as necessary responses to "Ukrainian threats."
  • UAF Decision Point: Prioritize ISR on all RUF airfields and ground force concentrations for early warning of major offensive operations. Engage international partners to directly and unequivocally counter the extreme RUF IO, providing irrefutable evidence of the deception and its strategic implications. Reinforce defensive positions, particularly in Sumy and Kharkiv, and prepare flexible reserves. Enhance internal security and counter-intelligence efforts to identify and neutralize potential terror cells or saboteurs following RUF's public promotion of such tactics. Address potential impacts of economic factors (e.g., Euro exchange rate) on civilian morale.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source ISR on RUF Air and Missile Capabilities targeting central Ukraine (e.g., Kremenchuk), to identify launch patterns, munition types (especially Kinzhal and ballistic), and targeting logic, with specific emphasis on confirmed use of anti-personnel elements. Focus on identifying specific missile launch sites, drone assembly/launch zones, and logistics chains to enable interdiction. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: All-source intelligence, GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT, BDA).
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Establish a dedicated, 24/7, multi-agency counter-disinformation task force to rapidly analyze and debunk Russia's new "visual evidence" for the fabricated Iran-Israel conflict (e.g., the "Tehran police" video from Операция Z). This cell must provide immediate, evidence-based counter-narratives to international partners and media, specifically disproving the authenticity and origin of the "visuals." Simultaneously, actively counter and expose RUF's maximalist territorial claims, "Russian world" ideology, and efforts to exploit or amplify narratives that sow discord within Western alliances. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, FORENSIC ANALYSIS of video/image evidence, LINGUISTIC ANALYSIS).
3. URGENT/CRITICAL: Intensify HUMINT and SIGINT collection regarding RUF's tactical aviation and drone operations to understand their capabilities, intentions, and vulnerabilities, especially concerning Lancet, KAB, and FPV drone strikes impacting civilians and now the explicit targeting of UAF drone teams. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, SIGINT, TECHINT).

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain highest AD alert posture across all Oblasts, especially Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Poltava (Kremenchuk), against persistent multi-directional KAB, UAV, FPV drone, and missile threats, including ballistic and Kinzhal. Prioritize the deployment of mobile AD and counter-drone units to vulnerable areas and critical infrastructure.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Accelerate the integration and deployment of advanced counter-UAV and EW systems, particularly those effective against FPV drones and loitering munitions like Lancet and large "Shahed" waves, to frontline units and critical infrastructure defense, specifically for UAF drone teams targeted by RUF artillery.
3. URGENT: Reinforce passive air defense measures and provide updated force protection guidance for civilian populations and first responders in areas subject to frequent KAB/UAV/FPV/Lancet/missile attacks, especially considering the use of anti-personnel cluster-type munitions. Ensure emergency services have robust communication and protection protocols.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain a robust defensive posture and combat readiness across all Eastern Front axes, including Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk, and reinforce positions in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Prepare for potential MDCOA ground offensive in the North or a major push in the South.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Prepare and position flexible strategic reserves for rapid deployment to any axis facing a major RUF ground offensive. Expedite engineering and fortification efforts in potential breakthrough areas.
3. ONGOING: Continue to inflict maximum personnel and equipment losses on RUF through effective defensive operations, counter-battery fire, and precision strikes (e.g., 46th Brigade drone operations), leveraging intelligence from drone operations and reported attrition rates. Ensure robust counter-battery capabilities to mitigate RUF targeting of UAF drone teams.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an unprecedented, globally coordinated information campaign to expose and directly counter Russia's new, more audacious fabrications, particularly the "Iran-Israel crisis" and any new "visual evidence" for it (e.g., "Tehran police" video). Emphasize the direct link between this destabilization and Russia's military objectives in Ukraine. Simultaneously, forcefully reject and expose Russia's maximalist territorial claims (e.g., "all of Ukraine is ours") and "Russian world" rhetoric as a direct violation of international law and a justification for continued aggression, not a basis for peace.
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Develop and widely disseminate robust counter-narratives to Russia's escalating dehumanizing rhetoric and war crime justifications, including the use of anti-personnel munitions against civilians. Specifically and immediately debunk new milblogger narratives that showcase "victories" or justify destruction, as well as official exaggerated combat claims and the exploitation of casualty repatriation. Engage international human rights organizations and religious leaders to condemn such language and warn of potential atrocities.
3. URGENT: Engage international partners to re-focus attention and aid specifically on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, explicitly countering any narrative that shifts focus to fabricated crises or human rights accusations, or seeks to undermine the unity and purpose of international alliances like NATO. Proactively address and seek to mitigate the impact of internal RUF IO and dissent (e.g., Altai protests).
4. ONGOING: Continue to document and disseminate evidence of RUF war crimes and internal issues (e.g., economic challenges, internal military cohesion efforts, domestic dissent) to maintain international pressure and discredit RUF's narratives. Highlight UAF's successes in counter-drone innovation and effective defensive actions to project strength and resilience, while actively supporting public engagement calls (e.g., STERNENKO's "coffee" campaign) and maintaining transparency on economic realities.

END OF REPORT.