Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 210600Z JUN 25 CLASSIFICATION: SECRET // NOFORN REPORTING UNIT: G2 ANALYST, UAF HIGH COMMAND

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna): Continued RUF attacks using FPV drones and artillery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This confirms persistent localized pressure on civilian areas.
• Sumy Oblast: RUF "Lancet" (loitering munition) strike on a multi-story residential building, injuring one civilian. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This indicates RUF is maintaining kinetic pressure on northern civilian targets, consistent with previous reports of ballistic missile and KAB strikes on the Sumy axis.
• Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Local authorities report the situation is "controlled" as of morning 21 JUN. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This implies no significant RUF ground advances or major kinetic activity in the immediate vicinity.
• RUF Territory (RF): Ministry of Defense (MoD) RF claims five Ukrainian UAVs intercepted overnight over Russian regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity/number).
• Previously Reported: Civilian casualties (one female wounded) reported in Zaporizhzhia District due to enemy attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF milbloggers report FPV drone strikes by 56th Separate Special Purpose Brigade "KHAN" (Tobol group) on enemy equipment in the Dnipropetrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on specific location/impact).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• No significant changes impacting operations reported. Night vision/thermal footage from RUF FPV drone strike (previous report) suggests continued night operations are feasible.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
  • General Staff: Issued daily report on estimated enemy losses, stating 1080 RUF personnel were "deported" (killed/wounded) over the past 24 hours, consistent with previous reporting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Total RUF combat losses since 24.02.22 estimated at 532,960 personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on UAF reporting).
  • Dnipropetrovsk ODA (ОВА): Confirms continued FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopolshchyna, indicating persistent local defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Kryvyi Rih Leadership: Reports "controlled" situation, implying maintained defensive posture. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration: Air raid alert cancelled, indicating active AD response and situational awareness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Drone Operations: Continued use of FPV drones in Dnipropetrovsk direction (Nikopolshchyna) and Lancet loitering munitions in Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Information Operations (CRITICAL ESCALATION CONTINUED): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" continues to report on claimed UAV interceptions. "Рыбарь" publishing daily "Chronicle of the SMO." "Басурин о главном" posting historical content, likely for propaganda purposes. "Новости Москвы" focusing on domestic social policies (mortgage payments), aimed at projecting stability. ASTRA reports on the Italian Defense Minister's call for NATO to rethink its role, which aligns with RUF's efforts to sow discord. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims/messaging; EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity of "Iran-Israel" content from previous reporting).
  • Domestic Control: Khabarovsk police report on a domestic assault, indicating normal internal news flow but also a focus on law and order. Moscow news focusing on social programs reinforces internal stability messaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Verify the specific locations and Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) of RUF FPV drone and artillery strikes in Nikopolshchyna, and the Lancet strike in Sumy. Determine the tactical intent and impact. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, OSINT, GEOINT, IMINT).
• CRITICAL: Analyze the continued narrative pushed by ASTRA regarding NATO's role. Is this being amplified by official RUF channels or is it an independent narrative that RUF is allowing to proliferate? (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• HIGH: Assess the impact of claimed RUF UAV interceptions on Ukrainian deep strike capabilities. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, BDA).
• MEDIUM: Monitor Russian domestic media for any shifts in messaging regarding the war in Ukraine, beyond general claims of intercepted UAVs and domestic issues. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Air/Drone Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate FPV drone capabilities for direct engagement of Ukrainian vehicles and civilian infrastructure, even at night. Persistent use of loitering munitions (Lancet) against civilian targets (Sumy) and artillery (Nikopolshchyna) indicates a continued focus on attritional strikes. RUF AD claims continued effectiveness against Ukrainian UAVs over Russian territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Information Warfare Capabilities (CRITICAL ESCALATION CONTINUED): RUF's IO apparatus remains highly adaptive and audacious, generating new "visual evidence" for its fabricated Iran-Israel conflict (from previous reporting). Domestic messaging aims to project stability and control, while leveraging international narratives that sow discord within NATO (Italian DM statement). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Intentions: RUF intends to:
  • Degrade Ukrainian Military and Civilian Infrastructure: Continued kinetic attacks (Lancet, FPV drones, artillery) on civilian areas in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts aim to inflict casualties, degrade morale, and hinder UAF operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Sustain Kinetic Pressure: Maintain offensive pressure across key axes with combined arms (ground, air, drones), including localized attacks on civilian areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Deceive and Divide the International Community: Through sustained, increasingly elaborate fabrications of the "Iran-Israel conflict" (previous reporting) and by amplifying narratives that question NATO's unity or mission. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Maintain Internal Support: By projecting state control, addressing domestic issues (mortgage payments), and reporting on successful defensive actions (UAV interceptions), while promoting military cohesion (previously reported). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF:
  • Drone Operations: Continued emphasis on FPV drone and Lancet use against both military and civilian targets, confirming a refined tactical application of these systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • IO Adaptation (CRITICAL): Rapid generation and dissemination of new, fabricated "visual evidence" for the Iran-Israel conflict (previously reported) shows an advanced, real-time disinformation capability. Amplification of Western internal political debates (NATO role) indicates a nuanced approach to undermining alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: UAF General Staff maintains consistent daily reporting of enemy losses, indicating persistent offensive pressure from UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: Continued drone and artillery operations indicate robust supply chains for munitions and equipment. Domestic messaging on economic control and social programs may hint at internal economic pressures, but does not indicate immediate military logistics issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: Sustained defensive operations and reporting on enemy losses imply adequate logistics.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: RUF C2 continues to coordinate kinetic operations with a sophisticated, multi-layered information warfare campaign. The rapid deployment of new fabricated "visuals" for the Iran-Israel conflict (previously reported) suggests centralized control and rapid response capabilities for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: UAF C2 demonstrates continued effective intelligence gathering and reporting through General Staff updates and regional administrations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Assess the organizational structure and operational methods of RUF FPV drone and Lancet "combat teams" to identify vulnerabilities and inform UAF counter-drone strategies. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, HUMINT, TECHINT, OSINT).
• CRITICAL: Quantify the resource allocation and strategic messaging behind RUF's ongoing fabricated Iran-Israel conflict and its efforts to destabilize NATO. Determine if this campaign is drawing resources away from other IO efforts or is now the primary focus. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, LINGUISTIC ANALYSIS).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains an active defensive posture against RUF's combined arms attacks, including FPV drones, Lancets, and artillery, as evidenced by civilian casualties in Sumy and ongoing attacks in Nikopolshchyna. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Readiness: UAF maintains a high state of readiness, with continuous engagements across the front, and public reporting on enemy losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes: UAF General Staff reports significant RUF personnel losses (1080), indicating successful attritional defense. Kryvyi Rih situation reported as "controlled." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Setbacks: Civilian casualties in Sumy and Nikopolshchyna indicate RUF attacks continue to impact non-combatants and critical infrastructure. RUF claims of successful FPV drone strikes and UAV interceptions, if true, represent tactical setbacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on civilian casualties; LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on RUF claims).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Counter-Drone: Urgent requirement for enhanced counter-FPV drone and anti-loitering munition capabilities (EW, jammers, interceptor drones) as RUF emphasizes these systems for precision strikes on both military and civilian targets.
• Air Defense/Counter-UAV/Missile: Continued and urgent requirement for advanced AD systems and interceptors capable of handling persistent Lancet/KAB/UAV strikes that lead to civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.
• Counter-IO: Sustained resources are required for developing and disseminating rapid, comprehensive counter-narratives to combat Russia's increasingly sophisticated information warfare, particularly the new reliance on fabricated "visual evidence" for false-flag scenarios and efforts to sow discord within international alliances.

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Assess the effectiveness of current UAF counter-drone measures against RUF's FPV drone and Lancet usage to identify areas for improvement. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, SIGINT, TECHINT).
• MEDIUM: Evaluate public reaction within Ukraine to civilian casualties in areas like Sumy and Nikopolshchyna, and any impact on morale. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian:
  • Escalated Iran-Israel Fabrication (CRITICAL - NEW VISUALS): (From previous report) RUF continues its aggressive information warfare focused on the fabricated Iran-Israel conflict with new video content attempting to provide false visual "evidence." (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims; EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity).
  • Military Success Projection: RUF milbloggers showcase FPV drone strikes on Ukrainian equipment (previous report) and MoD RF claims successful interception of Ukrainian UAVs over Russian territory, aiming to project tactical success and defensive capability. "Рыбарь" continues to publish daily "Chronicles of the SMO" to maintain narrative control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims).
  • Domestic Control & Stability: TASS (previous report) and "Новости Москвы" reports on internal economic controls (illegal employment, mortgage payments) aim to project state competence and stability, potentially to counter any internal discontent. "Полиция Хабаровского края" focusing on local crime reinforces law and order. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Military Cohesion: Milbloggers previously promoting "Desantnoe bratstvo, semya!" indicate efforts to foster internal unity within military ranks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • NATO Destabilization: ASTRA reporting on the Italian Defense Minister's call for NATO to rethink its role aligns with Russia's broader strategy of undermining Western alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ukrainian:
  • Transparency & Call for Action: UAF leadership continues daily reporting on enemy losses. Ukrainian regional administrations (Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia) provide timely updates on local attacks and situational control. Ukrainian media (РБК-Україна) continues to report on domestic issues and war news, indicating normal functioning despite the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Counter-Propaganda: Proactive reporting helps expose Russian lies, though the sheer volume and increasing sophistication of RUF disinformation remains a significant challenge.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Public morale remains under pressure from persistent attacks leading to civilian casualties (e.g., Sumy, Nikopolshchyna). However, resilience is demonstrated by the continued reporting on daily life and the ability of local authorities to maintain control (Kryvyi Rih). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian: The consistent push for military successes (drone strikes, UAV interceptions) and domestic control measures suggests ongoing efforts to maintain internal support and counter potential fatigue or disillusionment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Diversion Effectiveness (CRITICAL): RUF's continued and more sophisticated fabrication of the "Iran-Israel crisis," now with new visual "evidence" (previous report), continues to effectively divert international attention and resources. The reporting by ASTRA on the Italian Defense Minister's statement further indicates RUF's attempts to exploit internal divisions or debates within NATO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF diversion efforts and exploitation of narratives).

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Monitor international media and diplomatic responses to Russia's new, more detailed fabrications, especially those related to the fabricated Iran-Israel conflict, with a focus on how the new "visual evidence" is being perceived and how it influences policy. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Analyze the impact of Russia's domestic economic messaging (e.g., mortgage payments) on public sentiment within Russia. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained Kinetic Attacks with Enhanced Drone Use & Targeting of Civilian Areas: RUF will continue to launch KABs, Shahed UAVs, FPV drones, and Lancet loitering munitions against military equipment and critical infrastructure, as well as civilian populations in Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Expect continued focus on attritional ground operations on the Eastern Front. RUF will continue to disseminate highly exaggerated claims of UAF losses via official channels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Intensified & Globally Directed Information Warfare with New Fabricated "Evidence" and Alliance Destabilization: RUF will further escalate its information warfare by creating new, even more explicit and outrageous fabrications (e.g., new "visuals" for the Iran-Israel conflict). This will include continued pre-emptive narratives designed to justify future kinetic actions or discredit Ukrainian economic/military viability. RUF will also continue to amplify narratives that sow discord and question the resolve or unity of Western alliances (e.g., NATO's role). RUF milbloggers will likely continue to normalize military logistics and operations through visual content and casual commentary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Multi-Domain Offensive with Global Deception & Cyberattacks: RUF initiates a large-scale ground offensive on a new axis (e.g., Sumy/Chernihiv towards Kyiv or a major thrust on Zaporizhzhia), aiming for a significant breakthrough, supported by simultaneous, overwhelming multi-domain attacks (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, mass KAB and Shahed UAV attacks targeting strategic and economic infrastructure, cyberattacks targeting UAF C2 and critical infrastructure). This offensive would be accompanied by coordinated false-flag terror attacks within Ukraine or a neighboring state, falsely attributed to internal Ukrainian dissent or "terrorist groups," amplified by RUF IO channels with new, fabricated "visual evidence" (e.g., the "Tel Aviv" video repurposed or similar content generated). This will include intensified dissemination of fabricated POW abuse claims or claims of atrocities committed by UAF against civilians, with manipulated visual and testimonial evidence, likely supported by new milblogger narratives. Concurrently, RUF will launch a massive, globally coordinated cyberattack against critical infrastructure in a NATO or EU member state, falsely attributing it to "Iranian" or "Israeli" actors within the manufactured Middle East crisis (potentially leveraging new "visual evidence" like the "Tel Aviv" video), or falsely claiming these are attacks from Ukrainian "terrorist" elements. This aims to paralyze key Western response mechanisms, divert all attention and resources to the fabricated "crisis" and terror events, and force a Western response that directly benefits Russia's geopolitical objectives in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 6-12 hours):
  • RUF: Expect continued, high-volume KAB/UAV/FPV drone/Lancet activity in Eastern, Central, and Northern Oblasts, specifically focusing on Nikopolshchyna and Sumy. Further amplification of the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" with new, more audacious fabricated "evidence," including new "visuals." Continued efforts to sow discord within NATO via state media and proxy channels.
  • UAF Decision Point: Maintain highest AD readiness, especially in Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts under KAB/UAV/FPV/Lancet threat. Intensify ISR on Northern (Sumy/Chernihiv) and Eastern (Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk) axes for early warning of any ground force buildup. Immediately and publicly debunk new RUF IO fabrications, particularly new "visual evidence" for the Iran-Israel crisis and efforts to undermine NATO.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: Potential for another large-scale missile strike or mass UAV attack. Continued high-intensity ground and air pressure. RUF IO will seek new "developments" in its manufactured Middle East narrative and human rights accusations, potentially linked to false-flag events, and intensify efforts to exploit perceived weaknesses or divisions within NATO.
  • UAF Decision Point: Prioritize ISR on all RUF airfields and ground force concentrations for early warning of major offensive operations. Engage international partners to directly and unequivocally counter the extreme RUF IO, providing irrefutable evidence of the deception and its strategic implications. Reinforce defensive positions, particularly in Sumy, and prepare flexible reserves. Enhance internal security and counter-intelligence efforts to identify and neutralize potential terror cells or saboteurs following RUF's public promotion of such tactics.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source ISR on RUF FPV drone and Lancet "combat teams" operating in the Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia directions. Focus on identifying their launch sites, C2 nodes, and logistical support to enable interdiction. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: All-source intelligence, GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT, BDA).
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Establish a dedicated, 24/7, multi-agency counter-disinformation task force to rapidly analyze and debunk Russia's new "visual evidence" for the fabricated Iran-Israel conflict (e.g., "Tel Aviv" video). This cell must provide immediate, evidence-based counter-narratives to international partners and media. Simultaneously, actively counter and expose RUF's efforts to exploit or amplify narratives that sow discord within Western alliances. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, FORENSIC ANALYSIS of video/image evidence, LINGUISTIC ANALYSIS).
3. URGENT/CRITICAL: Intensify HUMINT and SIGINT collection regarding RUF's tactical aviation and drone operations to understand their capabilities, intentions, and vulnerabilities, especially concerning Lancet, KAB and FPV drone strikes impacting civilians. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, SIGINT, TECHINT).

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain highest AD alert posture across all Oblasts, especially Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv, against persistent multi-directional KAB, UAV, FPV drone, and Lancet threats. Prioritize the deployment of mobile AD and counter-drone units to vulnerable areas and critical infrastructure.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Accelerate the integration and deployment of advanced counter-UAV and EW systems, particularly those effective against FPV drones and loitering munitions like Lancet and large "Shahed" waves, to frontline units and critical infrastructure defense.
3. URGENT: Reinforce passive air defense measures and provide updated force protection guidance for civilian populations and first responders in areas subject to frequent KAB/UAV/FPV/Lancet attacks. Ensure emergency services have robust communication and protection protocols.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain a robust defensive posture and combat readiness across all Eastern Front axes, including Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk, and reinforce positions in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. Prepare for potential MDCOA ground offensive in the North or a major push in the South.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Prepare and position flexible strategic reserves for rapid deployment to any axis facing a major RUF ground offensive. Expedite engineering and fortification efforts in potential breakthrough areas.
3. ONGOING: Continue to inflict maximum personnel and equipment losses on RUF through effective defensive operations, counter-battery fire, and precision strikes, leveraging intelligence from drone operations and reported attrition rates.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an unprecedented, globally coordinated information campaign to expose and directly counter Russia's new, more audacious fabrications, particularly the "Iran-Israel crisis" and any new "visual evidence" for it. Emphasize the direct link between this destabilization and Russia's military objectives in Ukraine. Simultaneously, forcefully reject and expose the disingenuous nature of Russia's "peace offers" as a strategic deception aimed at providing cover for military aggression or setting conditions for future escalations.
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Develop and widely disseminate robust counter-narratives to Russia's escalating dehumanizing rhetoric and war crime justifications. Specifically and immediately debunk new milblogger narratives that showcase "victories" or justify destruction, as well as official exaggerated combat claims. Engage international human rights organizations and religious leaders to condemn such language and warn of potential atrocities.
3. URGENT: Engage international partners to re-focus attention and aid specifically on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, explicitly countering any narrative that shifts focus to fabricated crises or human rights accusations, or seeks to undermine the unity and purpose of international alliances like NATO. Proactively address and seek to mitigate the impact of internal RUF IO.
4. ONGOING: Continue to document and disseminate evidence of RUF war crimes and internal issues (e.g., economic challenges, internal military cohesion efforts) to maintain international pressure and discredit RUF's narratives. Highlight UAF's successes in counter-drone innovation and effective defensive actions to project strength and resilience.

END OF REPORT.