Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 202359Z JUN 25 CLASSIFICATION: SECRET // NOFORN REPORTING UNIT: G2 ANALYST, UAF HIGH COMMAND

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Northern Front (Sumy/Chernihiv Oblasts): No new ground-specific reports, but the previous RUF claims of advances towards Sumy and active combat in nearly 10 settlements (TASS, Andrei Marochko) remain a concern. RUF military correspondents "Voenkor Kotenok" continue to publish map screenshots related to the "Sumy direction," indicating RUF focus on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity of claim regarding ground combat).
• Central Ukraine (Kremenchuk, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv Oblasts): Ongoing high-volume UAV activity towards Kremenchuk, with approximately 13 UAVs previously noted in its vicinity. NEW: Multiple reports of missiles transiting Mykolaiv Oblast (Snihurivka, Bashtanka, Novyi Buh, Kazanka) on a northeast trajectory towards Kremenchuk (Kirovohrad, Poltava Oblasts). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Air Force confirms missiles on Kirovohrad Oblast heading for Kremenchuk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). An immediate assessment from RBK-Ukraina indicates ballistic missile threat to Kyiv and several other oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF milblogger НгП раZVедка makes an audacious, completely fabricated claim of "Ahura Mazda attacking southern Dnipropetrovsk," accompanied by a video of an ascending missile, falsely implying an Iranian strike on Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, EXTREMELY LOW on veracity). Previous explosion confirmed in Odesa due to UAV attack.
• Southern Front (Odesa Oblast): Fire reported in Odesa following drone attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Previous reports indicated multiple groups of UAVs from the Black Sea heading towards Chornomorsk/Lymanka/southern Odesa, with some destroyed.
• RUF Territory (Belgorod, Kursk, Voronezh Oblasts, RF): RUF reports 23 UAF UAVs destroyed over Belgorod, Kursk, and Voronezh Oblasts within a two-hour period, and claims a shelled border village in Belgorod. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims of UAV interceptions and Belgorod damage). Temporary flight restrictions reported at Tambov airport previously, NEW: Kazan airport also reporting temporary restrictions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• No new significant reports affecting battlefield conditions.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
  • Air Defense (AD): Actively tracking and issuing real-time alerts for multiple regions. New alerts confirm missile threat to Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Poltava (Kremenchuk), and Kyiv Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF OSINT (Mykolaivsky Vanok) is accurately tracking missile trajectories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force is actively tracking and issuing real-time updates on UAV and missile movement. Fire in Odesa indicates some drones penetrated AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • General: UAF maintains a defensive posture, focused on AD and countering RUF ground assaults. General Staff of the AFU released operational information as of 22:00 20 JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Air Operations: Continuing large-scale, multi-directional UAV attacks (estimated 70+ "Shaheds") targeting central, southern, and northern Ukrainian oblasts, with new groups on the Sumy/Kharkiv border. NEW: Launching cruise/ballistic missiles targeting Central Ukraine (Kremenchuk, potentially Kyiv). (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF also claiming successful interception of UAF UAVs over their territory and temporary flight restrictions in Russian airports (Tambov, Kazan). (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim) TASS reports a "ten-fold increase" in UAV supplies to RUF forces in 2024 vs. 2022. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, MEDIUM on specific numbers).
  • Ground Forces: RUF (TASS) claiming advances towards Sumy. RUF military correspondents "Voenkor Kotenok" are publishing map screenshots related to "Sumy," "Novopavlivka," and "Zaporizhzhia" directions, indicating ongoing RUF ground interest/operations in these areas. TASS, citing Andrei Marochko, claims RUF army is conducting active combat in nearly 10 settlements in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity).
  • Information Operations (CRITICAL ESCALATION CONTINUED):
    • Deceptive Peace Overture: RUF (TASS, Operatyvnyi ZSU, «Зона СВО», Tsaplienko) publicly offering a "best peace proposal" and inviting a new round of negotiations in Istanbul on 22 JUN. This continues to be a clear attempt to project an image of de-escalation while pursuing military objectives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Continued Iran-Israel Fabrication & Amplification (NEW ESCALATION): RUF channels (Operatsiya Z, Colonelcassad, TASS, Alex Parker Returns) continue to heavily push the fabricated "Iran-Israel conflict." NEW: RBK-Ukraina reports a RUF claim that Iran launched missiles at Israel, citing Tsahav (likely IDF equivalent), though this is immediately followed by a direct fabrication from RUF milblogger НгП раZVедка claiming "Ahura Mazda attacks southern Dnipropetrovsk" with an accompanying video of an ascending missile. This marks a new, highly dangerous escalation: attempting to link the fabricated Middle East conflict directly to kinetic events in Ukraine, falsely implying Iranian involvement in strikes against Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims; EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity). This is a critical development in RUF's IO, attempting to validate its global deception.
    • Dehumanizing Rhetoric/Propaganda: "НгП раZVедка" continues to use highly derogatory and dehumanizing language towards Ukrainians ("проклятое государство," "свинарник," "Corpse-eaters") and explicitly promotes "finish off the survivors!" and claims "captured Romanian." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • False Flag / Provocation: "Operatsiya Z" (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) distributes a video titled "Ukrainians began to be killed by booby-trapped scooters," a likely false-flag or fabricated event. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity).
    • Historical Revisionism/Justification: TASS reports RUF MoD's new multimedia project "In the Eternal Fire of Our Memory" dedicated to the start of the "Great Patriotic War" (WWII) and highlights Captain Aleksandr Zubik's "feat." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Internal RUF Narrative (Belgorod, POWs): Colonelcassad video about shelled Belgorod village frames Russia as a victim. Colonelcassad releases a video featuring a Russian serviceman allegedly released from Ukrainian captivity, describing harsh conditions and mistreatment. NEW: "Operatsiya Z" (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) features Medinsky comparing "Kyiv propaganda around body exchange" to "Goebbels' manipulations," a direct attack on Ukrainian handling of POW/KIA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Internal Russian Economic/Security Messaging: TASS reports on VTB's long-term strategy, electronic ID cards, and discussions on security measures by Rosgvardia. TASS also reports a case against journalist Farida Kurbangaleeva. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Verify the trajectory and impact points of the missiles reported over Mykolaiv and Kirovohrad Oblasts, assess their origin (air-launched cruise missile or ballistic missile), and conduct BDA on any hits. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, OSINT, BDA).
• CRITICAL: Assess the actual status of UAF fortifications around Sumy and the veracity of RUF claims of advance/active combat in this direction. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, HUMINT).
• CRITICAL: Analyze the new RUF narrative claiming "Iran launched missiles at Israel" (even if reported by RBK-Ukraina, the source is RUF via Tsahav) and the new claim of "Iran MRBMs striking Dnipropetrovsk" from RUF Milblogger НгП раZVедка. Determine if this narrative is gaining traction in international media or diplomatic circles, and how it aligns with previous fabrications. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, GEOINT analysis of seismic data, HUMINT).
• CRITICAL: Verify the "booby-trapped scooters" video for authenticity and intent. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: FORENSIC ANALYSIS, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Obtain and analyze the full content of the General Staff of the AFU operational information (22:00 20 JUN 25) to understand UAF tactical updates. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, UAF internal reporting).
• HIGH: Verify the reported "ten-fold increase" in RUF UAV supplies. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, TECHINT, SIGINT).
• HIGH: Assess the impact and intent of RUF Milblogger НгП раZVедка's derogatory comment on "airfields in Hadzhibey" and its relation to the Odesa strike. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, LINGUISTIC ANALYSIS).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Air/Missile/UAV Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate substantial capacity for large-scale, multi-directional UAV attacks aimed at saturating UAF AD. NEW: Demonstrated capability to launch cruise/ballistic missiles towards Central Ukraine (Kremenchuk/Kyiv axes), indicating broader target sets and a more complex air campaign. Their tactical drone capabilities for ISR and precision strike remain robust, with claimed "ten-fold" increases in supply. They are also demonstrating increasing capacity to intercept UAF UAVs over their own territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ground Capabilities: RUF maintains offensive capabilities, particularly on the Eastern front (Novopavlivka, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy directions, as indicated by RUF milbloggers), and is increasingly leveraging UAV and KAB support. There are strong indicators of continued intent for offensive action towards Sumy, with TASS claiming active combat in Sumy settlements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on claim, LOW on veracity).
• Information Warfare Capabilities (CRITICAL ESCALATION): RUF's IO remains highly adaptive and sophisticated, capable of fabricating complex international narratives. The new, brazen claim of Iranian MRBMs striking Dnipropetrovsk, coupled with the RUF claim of Iranian missiles on Israel, marks a significant and dangerous escalation. This demonstrates an intent to directly link their fabricated global crisis to kinetic events in Ukraine, creating extreme confusion and diversion. Their ability to integrate "peace" offers with kinetic escalation and increasingly aggressive dehumanizing rhetoric is a concerning development. The use of Medinsky to compare Ukrainian POW/KIA information operations to Goebbels is a direct and aggressive attack on Ukraine's legitimacy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Intentions: RUF intends to:
  • Sustain multi-axis kinetic pressure via mass UAV attacks and missile strikes to degrade UAF defenses and infrastructure, demoralize the population, and create opportunities for ground advances. The focus on Sumy suggests continued shaping for a potential northern offensive, with new claims of ground combat here. The new missile attacks towards Kremenchuk/Kyiv aim to stretch AD and strike deep targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Deceive and Divide the International Community (CRITICAL ESCALATION): By proposing "peace talks" while fabricating a global crisis (Iran-Israel) and attempting to provide "scientific" evidence for it (earthquakes), RUF aims to portray itself as a peacemaker, sow discord among allies, divert attention from Ukraine. The new, fabricated claim of Iranian MRBMs striking Dnipropetrovsk is designed to create extreme confusion, provoke a broader international response, and potentially draw other actors into the conflict or justify further RUF actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Undermine Ukrainian Morale & Justify Aggression: Through dehumanizing rhetoric and claims of UAF failures (fortifications, POW management), RUF seeks to demoralize Ukrainian forces and civilians, while justifying its continued aggression internally and externally. The use of "Corpse-eaters" and explicit calls to "finish off the survivors!" show genocidal intent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF:
  • Kinetic Adaptation: Continued increased number of "Shaheds" in single waves. New UAV groups entering on the Sumy/Kharkiv border area, reinforcing northern threat. NEW: Reintroduction of cruise/ballistic missiles targeting Central Ukraine (Kremenchuk/Kyiv axes). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • IO Adaptation (CRITICAL): Direct public "peace offers" concurrent with escalated military and information aggression represent a more brazen and sophisticated deception tactic. The new attempt to link natural seismic activity to fabricated kinetic attacks in Iran represents a novel and dangerous escalation in disinformation. CRITICAL: The direct fabrication of Iranian missiles striking Dnipropetrovsk and RUF claims of Iranian missiles on Israel are the most significant and dangerous escalations in RUF IO, aiming to fuse its fabricated international crisis with kinetic events in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Escalated dehumanizing rhetoric ("Corpse-eaters," "finish off the survivors!"). Direct attacks on Ukrainian information operations regarding POWs/KIA via Medinsky. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: Continued real-time AD alerts demonstrate adaptive responsiveness to RUF air attacks. UAF OSINT channels are providing accurate, real-time tracking of new missile threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: The sustained high volume of UAV attacks, reintroduction of missile strikes, ongoing ground operations, and complex IO campaigns suggest RUF has sufficient resources for continued high-intensity operations across multiple domains. The claimed "ten-fold" increase in UAV supply suggests robust industrial support. Temporary flight restrictions at Tambov and Kazan airports within RF territory suggest ongoing internal security or counter-UAV measures in response to UAF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: The continued strain on AD resources due to persistent, large-scale multi-directional UAV and missile threats remains a critical concern.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: RUF C2 demonstrates continued coordination across kinetic operations (mass UAV/missile launches) and its sophisticated, multi-layered information warfare campaign (simultaneous "peace offers," global crisis fabrication, and dehumanizing rhetoric, now including brazen fabrications of Iranian strikes in Ukraine and direct attacks on Ukrainian POW/KIA reporting). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: UAF C2 demonstrates effective real-time threat detection and dissemination, enabling rapid public response to aerial threats. General Staff of AFU continues to provide operational updates. UAF OSINT channels are providing accurate, real-time tracking of new missile threats, indicating effective decentralized information flow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Detailed analysis of RUF's simultaneous "peace" overtures and escalated military/IO actions, specifically the new claims of Iranian missiles striking Israel and Dnipropetrovsk. Identify specific strategic objectives and potential hidden agendas behind this extreme fabrication. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT, GEOINT).
• HIGH: Assess the specific capabilities and tactics of any new missile types used by RUF and their primary targets. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: TECHINT, OSINT, BDA).
• HIGH: Analyze the impact and reach of RUF's new narratives regarding "captured Romanians" and fabricated POW mistreatment, including Medinsky's latest statements, on international opinion. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains an active defensive posture against RUF's mass UAV and missile attacks targeting multiple regions. AD is actively tracking and warning of incoming threats, including new missile threats to Central Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Readiness: UAF General Staff issued operational information as of 22:00, indicating active command and control and continuous situational awareness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes: UAF Air Force continues real-time threat detection and public alerts for broad areas, contributing to civilian safety. AD is tracking and engaging incoming large UAV waves, and tracking new missile threats. UAF OSINT indicates successful interception of UAVs targeting Odesa earlier. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Setbacks: RUF propaganda claiming UAF failures in fortification efforts near Sumy, if true, would represent a significant setback. (LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity, HIGH on RUF attempt to frame as setback). The sheer volume of incoming "Shaheds" and the reintroduction of missiles continues to strain AD resources. A fire confirmed in Odesa following a drone attack, indicating some successful RUF targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense/Counter-UAV/Missile: Continued and urgent requirement for AD systems and interceptors capable of handling mass UAV saturation attacks across widely dispersed areas, especially with the increased threat to the Sumy/Kharkiv border and the reintroduction of cruise/ballistic missile threats to Central Ukraine.
• Counter-IO: Sustained resources are required for developing and disseminating rapid, comprehensive counter-narratives to combat Russia's increasingly sophisticated and aggressive information warfare, especially its direct public "peace" offers, the new tactic of demonstrating "real-world" impacts from fabricated crises, the use of natural phenomena (earthquakes) for fabricated kinetic events, and the extremely dangerous new fabrication of Iranian MRBMs striking Dnipropetrovsk, coupled with explicit calls to kill survivors, fabricated false-flag events (scooters), and direct attacks on Ukrainian POW/KIA reporting.

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Assess the effectiveness of current AD systems against the latest large-scale "Shahed" attacks and new missile threats to identify areas for improvement or additional resource requirements. This includes detailed BDA on Odesa and Kremenchuk strikes. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, SIGINT).
• MEDIUM: Evaluate public reaction to RUF's "peace offers" and the Iran-Israel/Dnipro MRBM claims in Ukraine and among international partners to understand the effectiveness of this deception tactic. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian:
  • "Peace Offer" Deception (CRITICAL): RUF continues to actively and publicly propose a "best peace offer" and suggest new negotiation rounds in Istanbul. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Escalated Iran-Israel Fabrication (CRITICAL - NEW ESCALATION): RUF continues to actively propagate the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis." NEW: RUF channels, including RBK-Ukraina (citing a RUF source), claim Iran launched missiles at Israel. Immediately following this, RUF milblogger НгП раZVедка makes the audacious and completely fabricated claim that "Iran launched an MRBM at southern Dnipropetrovsk," accompanied by a video of a missile launch. This is a highly dangerous and unprecedented escalation, attempting to directly link the fabricated international crisis to kinetic events within Ukraine, falsely portraying a third party (Iran) as involved in strikes against Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims; EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity).
  • Dehumanizing Rhetoric and Justification of Violence (NEW ESCALATION): "НгП раZVедка" channels are increasingly using extreme dehumanizing language ("трупоеды" - corpse-eaters), explicitly promoting "And finish off the survivors!", and using derogatory terms like "captured Romanian." NEW: "Operatsiya Z" (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) amplifies a statement from Medinsky comparing "Kyiv propaganda around body exchange" to "Goebbels' manipulations," a direct and aggressive attack on Ukraine's legitimate information efforts regarding POWs/KIA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • False Flag / Provocation (NEW): "Operatsiya Z" disseminates a video claiming "Ukrainians began to be killed by booby-trapped scooters." (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity).
  • Narrative of UAF Failure & RUF Advance: TASS reporting on Ukrainian MP Goncharenko's alleged statement about UAF fortification failures near Sumy. RUF milbloggers post maps of claimed advances. TASS claims RUF army is conducting active combat in nearly 10 settlements in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Historical Revisionism/War Justification: Russian MoD's new WWII project. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Economic/Security Stability Messaging: TASS reports on positive economic sentiment from business leaders at SPIEF and VTB's long-term strategy. TASS reports on digital pensioner IDs, security measures, and the case against journalist Farida Kurbangaleeva. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Military-Technical Debate: "Filolog v zasade" (RUF milblogger) criticizes Rostec CEO's statements on Bradley IFV dimensions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ukrainian:
  • Transparency & Call for Action: UAF leadership (Air Force) continues real-time reporting on RUF UAV and missile threats, maintaining public awareness and trust. General Staff of AFU provides official operational updates. Ukrainian OSINT channels (Mykolaivsky Vanok, Suspilne) are providing real-time updates and tracking of missile trajectories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Counter-Propaganda: Proactive reporting from UAF and independent Ukrainian channels helps to expose Russian lies, though the sheer volume and increasing sophistication of RUF disinformation is challenging to counter effectively.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Public morale remains under pressure from persistent and large-scale UAV and missile attacks. The explicit "peace offers" from RUF, if not immediately and decisively countered, could potentially sow confusion or false hope. The dehumanizing rhetoric aims to degrade morale. The specific targeting of Odesa with an explosion and missile threats to Kremenchuk/Kyiv will cause further public distress. The fabricated claims of Iranian strikes on Ukraine are particularly alarming and could cause widespread panic if not immediately debunked. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian: The need for aggressive new IO narratives, including victimhood narratives (Belgorod video, POW claims), false-flag operations (scooters), and positive economic/security messaging, suggests ongoing efforts to maintain internal support for the war.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Diversion Effectiveness (CRITICAL): RUF's continued and even more sophisticated fabrication of the "Iran-Israel crisis," now with direct diplomatic "peace" offers, and the extremely dangerous new fabrication of Iranian MRBMs striking Dnipropetrovsk, continues to effectively divert international attention and potentially resources from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is a direct attempt to force a shift in global focus.
• Impact of Deceptive Diplomacy: Russia's "peace offers," despite their obvious disingenuousness, are designed to create a perception of Russian reasonableness and potentially pressure some Western partners to push for premature negotiations unfavorable to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Monitor international media and diplomatic responses to Russia's new, more detailed fabrications of the "Iran-Israel crisis" and its simultaneous "peace offers," especially the new RUF claims of Iranian missiles striking Israel and the audacious claim of "Iran MRBMs on Dnipropetrovsk." Assess if this dual-pronged approach is successfully gaining traction or influencing diplomatic initiatives regarding Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Analyze how global political figures and institutions react to Russia's manipulation of their statements or the fabricated crises, and identify opportunities for UAF to engage directly to counter these narratives. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained Large-Scale Multi-Directional UAV and Missile Attacks: RUF will continue to launch large waves of UAVs (70+ "Shaheds") and cruise/ballistic missiles against multiple Ukrainian Oblasts (Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kropyvnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Kremenets, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Odesa), with an increased focus on the Sumy/Kharkiv border areas, and deep strikes into Central Ukraine (Kremenchuk/Kyiv axes). These attacks will aim to stretch UAF air defenses, degrade infrastructure, and conduct reconnaissance, while also attempting to attrit UAF military assets and terrorize the civilian population. RUF will attempt to maximize BDA claims on these strikes for propaganda purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Intensified Ground Pressure (Eastern Front, Continued Shaping in North with Expanded Claims): RUF will maintain severe ground pressure on Eastern axes (Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupyansk) and continue shaping operations with air/missile strikes and probing assaults on the Sumy border areas. RUF IO will continue to claim advances towards Sumy and attribute any UAF difficulties to internal failures (e.g., fortifications), supported by milblogger map posts and claims of direct combat in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Escalated and More Audacious Information Warfare (Cover for Action & Distraction - NEW ELEMENTS): RUF will further escalate its information warfare by creating new, even more explicit and outrageous fabrications related to the "Iran-Israel crisis." CRITICAL: This will include extremely dangerous and audacious fabrications, such as direct false claims of Iranian missiles striking Israel, and the fabrication of Iranian MRBMs striking Ukrainian territory (e.g., Dnipropetrovsk). This strategy aims to leverage real-world events or natural phenomena to "prove" fabricated kinetic events, and directly link the invented crisis to the war in Ukraine. Concurrently, RUF will continue to push disingenuous "peace offers" to portray itself as rational and peaceful, using this as a strategic cover for ongoing military aggression or preparations for future escalations. Expect a ramp-up in highly dehumanizing rhetoric against Ukrainians (e.g., "Corpse-eaters"), explicit calls to kill survivors, aggressive anti-Western narratives, coupled with psychological operations (e.g., blaming UAF for fortification failures, fabricated POW mistreatment, false-flag "booby-trapped scooter" incidents, and direct attacks on Ukrainian POW/KIA reporting). RUF will also continue to project internal stability and control through economic messaging and internal security crackdowns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Northern Ground Offensive with Cyber-Enabled Terror & Global Deception (Reiterated and Reinforced - WITH NEW IO MECHANISMS): RUF initiates a large-scale ground offensive on the Sumy/Chernihiv axis towards Kyiv, aiming for a significant breakthrough, supported by simultaneous, overwhelming multi-domain attacks (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, KABs, mass UAVs, potential cyberattacks targeting UAF C2 and critical infrastructure). This offensive would be accompanied by coordinated false-flag terror attacks within Ukraine or a neighboring state, falsely attributed to internal Ukrainian dissent or "terrorist groups," amplified by RUF IO channels with fabricated "evidence." This evidence could now leverage manipulated natural phenomena (e.g., earthquake data) to "prove" kinetic events or other fabricated claims, potentially including radiation scare tactics, AND explicit false-flag claims of Iranian missiles striking Ukrainian territory, alongside direct fabricated claims of Iranian missiles striking Israel. This could include new, explicit false-flag claims of Ukrainian forces or civilians committing atrocities (e.g., "booby-trapped scooters") to justify RUF's own extreme violence, including against survivors. Concurrently, RUF will launch a massive, globally coordinated cyberattack against critical infrastructure in a NATO or EU member state, falsely attributing it to "Iranian" or "Israeli" actors within the manufactured Middle East crisis, or falsely claiming these are attacks from Ukrainian "terrorist" elements. This would be coupled with intensified dehumanization, including of NATO members (e.g., "Romanians"), explicit calls to kill survivors, and widespread fabrication of POW abuses, amplified by statements from senior RUF officials comparing Ukrainian actions to Nazi propaganda. This aims to paralyze key Western response mechanisms, divert all attention and resources to the fabricated "crisis" and terror events, and force a Western response that directly benefits Russia's geopolitical objectives in Ukraine, allowing for rapid gains on the battlefield. The intensified dehumanizing rhetoric and explicit comparisons to totalitarian propaganda would be used to justify extreme violence and atrocities during this offensive, particularly against civilians and POWs, while simultaneously discrediting any counter-narratives from Ukraine or its allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The new "peace offers" and the attempts to show tangible impacts from fabricated crises (Maersk, earthquake narrative, fabricated Haifa strikes, Iranian MRBMs on Dnipropetrovsk), and direct links to Western policy objectives, are precisely the kind of strategic deception that would provide political cover and global distraction for such a move.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 6-12 hours):
  • RUF: Expect continued, high-volume multi-directional UAV and missile activity, particularly on the Sumy/Kharkiv border, Odesa, and Kremenchuk/Kyiv axes. Further amplification of the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" with new, more audacious fabricated "evidence," including claims of Iranian missiles on Israel and the brazen fabrication of Iranian MRBMs striking Dnipropetrovsk. Continued dehumanizing rhetoric and explicit threats/claims of terror acts and fabricated POW mistreatment, including explicit calls to kill survivors and new false-flag incidents like the "scooters." The "peace offer" narrative will be pushed heavily. RUF will continue to claim advances towards Sumy and expanded ground combat there.
  • UAF Decision Point: Maintain highest AD readiness, especially in Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kremenets, Odesa, and other major urban centers under UAV/KAB/missile threat. Intensify ISR on Northern (Sumy/Chernihiv) and Eastern (Kupyansk, Zaporizhzhia, Novopavlivka) axes for early warning of any ground force buildup. Immediately and publicly debunk new RUF IO fabrications, particularly the recontextualized quotes from foreign leaders, the disingenuous "peace offers," the Maersk claim, the earthquake narrative, the Kneissl statements, the fabricated Haifa missile videos, the Iranian MRBM on Dnipropetrovsk claim, the fabricated POW mistreatment claims (including Medinsky's latest), and the "booby-trapped scooter" incident. Engage international partners to amplify these counter-narratives. Prepare for potential mass casualty events due to civilian targeting and potential terror attacks. Counter RUF claims regarding UAF fortification failures.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: Potential for another large-scale missile strike. Continued high-intensity ground and air pressure. RUF IO will seek new "developments" in its manufactured Middle East narrative, potentially linked to false-flag events or further attempts to undermine Western unity by exploiting political divisions. Intensified efforts to secure and publicize non-Western partnerships.
  • UAF Decision Point: Prioritize ISR on all RUF airfields and ground force concentrations for early warning of major offensive operations, especially in the north (Sumy/Chernihiv). Engage international partners to directly and unequivocally counter the extreme RUF IO, providing irrefutable evidence of the deception and its strategic implications. Reinforce defensive positions, particularly in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, and prepare flexible reserves, especially for the Kyiv axis. Actively promote successful UAF actions and resilience stories to counter RUF propaganda. Enhance internal security and counter-intelligence efforts to identify and neutralize potential terror cells or saboteurs following RUF's public promotion of such tactics. Be prepared to publicly reject any disingenuous RUF "peace" proposals, emphasizing that peace can only be achieved through full territorial integrity and adherence to international law.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source ISR on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Belarus border areas for any indicators of RUF ground force buildup, logistics, or command post activity that could precede a major offensive. Focus on patterns of UAV use, especially Lancet, in these areas. Verify RUF claims of advance towards Sumy, specifically the new TASS claim of active combat in nearly 10 settlements. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: All-source intelligence, GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT).
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Establish a dedicated and expanded counter-disinformation cell focusing solely on real-time debunking of Russia's fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" (including the Maersk claim, the new earthquake-linking narrative, the Kneissl statements, fabricated Haifa missile videos, and the extremely dangerous false claim of Iran MRBMs on Dnipropetrovsk) and its new, terror-promoting and dehumanizing rhetoric (e.g., "Corpse-eaters," "captured Romanians," fabricated POW abuse claims (including Medinsky's latest), explicit calls to kill survivors, and the "booby-trapped scooter" incident). AND its disingenuous "peace offers." This cell must be capable of rapid analysis of manipulated media and linguistic analysis of extremist narratives to inform immediate counter-narratives. Special emphasis on exposing the manipulation of foreign leaders' statements and the strategic deception inherent in simultaneous "peace" and aggression. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT, GEOINT for seismic data analysis, FORENSIC ANALYSIS of video/image evidence).
3. URGENT/CRITICAL: Conduct rapid, thorough BDA of any new claimed RUF successes or terror attacks, including the claimed destruction of UAF drone control points, the fire in Odesa, and any impact from missiles targeting Kremenchuk/Kyiv. Verification of these events is paramount for operational assessment and counter-IO. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT, FORENSIC).
4. HIGH: Intensify HUMINT and SIGINT collection regarding RUF's tactical drone operations (e.g., "Kub" assets) and any new missile types to understand their C2, capabilities, and vulnerabilities, and verify claimed increases in supply. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, SIGINT, TECHINT).

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain highest AD alert posture across all Oblasts, especially Kyiv, Poltava, Kryvyi Rih, Sumy, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Kremenets, Kharkiv, and Odesa, against persistent multi-directional mass UAV and missile threats. Prioritize the deployment of mobile AD units to vulnerable areas and critical infrastructure. Adapt AD responses to new UAV routing on the Sumy/Kharkiv border and towards central/southern oblasts (Kremenets, Odesa), including multi-vector approaches and missile engagements.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Accelerate the integration and deployment of advanced counter-UAV and EW systems, particularly those effective against loitering munitions and large "Shahed" waves, and missile defense systems, to frontline units and critical infrastructure defense.
3. URGENT: Reinforce passive air defense measures and provide updated force protection guidance for civilian populations and first responders in areas subject to frequent UAV/missile attacks. Develop specific protocols for identifying and responding to potential terror tactics and fabricated POW scenarios, as well as explicit threats to kill survivors.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain a robust defensive posture and combat readiness across all Eastern Front axes, including Zaporizhzhia, Novopavlivka, and Kupyansk, and reinforce positions in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. Prepare for potential MDCOA ground offensive in the North towards Kyiv. Verify and, if necessary, expedite fortification efforts near Sumy, particularly in light of new RUF claims of ground combat in the area.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Prepare and position flexible strategic reserves for rapid deployment to the Sumy/Chernihiv axis in case of a major RUF ground offensive. Expedite engineering and fortification efforts in these northern border regions.
3. ONGOING: Continue to inflict maximum personnel and equipment losses on RUF through effective defensive operations, counter-battery fire, and precision strikes, leveraging intelligence from drone operations.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an unprecedented, globally coordinated information campaign to expose and directly counter Russia's new, more audacious fabrications of the "Iran-Israel crisis," including the staged statistics, reframed legitimate news, the Maersk claim, the new earthquake-linking narrative, the Kneissl statements, the fabricated Haifa missile videos, and the extremely dangerous false claim of Iran MRBMs on Dnipropetrovsk. Emphasize the direct link between this destabilization and Russia's military objectives in Ukraine. Simultaneously, forcefully reject and expose the disingenuous nature of Russia's "peace offers" as a strategic deception aimed at providing cover for military aggression or setting conditions for future escalations.
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Develop and widely disseminate robust counter-narratives to Russia's escalating dehumanizing rhetoric (e.g., "свинарник," "проклятое государство," "трупоеды," "captured Romanians," explicit promotion of killing survivors, promotion of terror tactics, fabricated POW abuse claims (including Medinsky's latest), and the "booby-trapped scooter" incident), highlighting its genocidal implications and the hypocrisy of the accuser. Engage international human rights organizations and religious leaders to condemn such language and warn of potential atrocities.
3. URGENT: Engage international partners to re-focus attention and aid specifically on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, explicitly countering any narrative that shifts focus to fabricated crises. Proactively address and seek to mitigate the impact of internal RUF IO (e.g., fake MVS warnings, corruption claims against UAF). Actively counter Russian claims about UAF fortification failures and ground advances in Sumy.
4. ONGOING: Continue to document and disseminate evidence of RUF war crimes and internal issues (e.g., need for unit-level fundraising, elite discontent, and signs of audience fatigue among propagandists, internal military-technical debates, economic messaging, internal security crackdowns) to maintain international pressure and discredit RUF's narratives. Highlight UAF's successes in counter-drone innovation and effective defensive actions to project strength and resilience.

END OF REPORT.