Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 232757Z JUN 25 CLASSIFICATION: SECRET // NOFORN REPORTING UNIT: G2 ANALYST, UAF HIGH COMMAND

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Northern Front (Sumy/Chernihiv Oblasts, Kyiv, Poltava, Kremenets): Continued significant UAV activity. New groups of enemy UAVs detected entering airspace on the border of Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF sources claim their forces are advancing towards Sumy, alleging UAF failed fortification efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity of claim) RUF military correspondents "Voenkor Kotenok" are publishing map screenshots related to the "Sumy direction," indicating RUF focus on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS (RUF) reports RUF army is conducting active combat in nearly 10 settlements in Sumy Oblast, citing Andrei Marochko. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity of claim, as it implies significant ground operations beyond probing attacks). NEW: Multiple groups of enemy UAVs confirmed approaching Kremenchuk from various directions; approximately 13 UAVs remaining in the vicinity, concentrating on one sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Milblogger Colonelcassad claims "several dozen hits" in Kremenchuk after "Geranium" (Shahed) strike and weak AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, LOW on veracity of BDA/AD effectiveness).
• Southern Front (Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Kherson Oblasts): Ongoing UAV threat to Dnipro and Mykolaiv as previously reported. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Voenkor Kotenok" also posting map screenshots for "Zaporizhzhia direction. Huliaipole section," indicating continued RUF interest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAV threat to Odesa Oblast confirmed with multiple UAVs in the vicinity of Pivdenne now redirecting towards Odesa from the north. 14 UAVs detected over the sea. NEW: Multiple groups of UAVs from the Black Sea heading towards Chornomorsk (Odesa Oblast). Approximately 12 "mopeds" (UAVs) approaching Chornomorsk/Lymanka/southern Odesa. Two additional UAVs approaching Odesa from Teplodar, suggesting a pincer movement. Explosion confirmed in Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF OSINT (Mykolaivsky Vanok) reports 5 UAVs remaining near Odesa/Lymanka: 4 from sea, 1 from Teplodar. Later report from same source indicates "minus" (destroyed) for UAVs from sea and those targeting Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Milblogger НгП раZVедка makes a highly derogatory statement about "airfields in Hadzhibey" being unnecessary, implying their destruction or insignificance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, LOW on veracity).
• Eastern Front (Kupyansk Direction): RUF continues to claim advances towards Kupyansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity of claim) "Voenkor Kotenok" publishing map screenshots for "Novopavlivka direction." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Central Ukraine: UAV detected on eastern outskirts of Cherkasy, moving westward. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• General UAV Threat: Estimated 70+ "Shahed" UAVs currently over Ukraine, indicating a large-scale, ongoing multi-directional saturation attack. UAF Air Force is actively tracking and issuing real-time updates on UAV movement (e.g., Kremenets). "Mykolaivsky Vanok" (UAF OSINT) reports approximately 25 UAVs near/flying towards Kremenchuk. Total UAV count remains high.
• RUF Territory (Belgorod, Kursk, Voronezh Oblasts, RF): RUF reports 23 UAF UAVs destroyed over Belgorod, Kursk, and Voronezh Oblasts within a two-hour period. Governor of Voronezh reports several UAVs destroyed. Colonelcassad (RUF) posts video claiming to show a shelled border village in Belgorod, highlighting resilience and damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims of UAV interceptions; HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF reporting on Belgorod damage) Rosaviatsiya reports temporary flight restrictions at Tambov airport (RF). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• No new significant reports affecting battlefield conditions.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
  • Air Defense (AD): Actively issuing real-time alerts for multiple cities and regions (Kropyvnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kremenets, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Sumy/Kharkiv border, Odesa, Pivdenne, Chornomorsk, Cherkasy) indicating broad area coverage and active tracking of large UAV formations. UAF Air Force issuing updates on UAV movement. Air Force reports drone north of Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF is confirming multi-vector UAV approaches to Odesa and Kremenchuk, demonstrating continuous threat awareness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF OSINT (Mykolaivsky Vanok) reports success in destroying UAVs targeting Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • General: UAF maintains a defensive posture, focused on AD and countering RUF ground assaults. General Staff of the AFU released operational information as of 22:00 20 JUN 25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Air Operations: Continuing large-scale, multi-directional UAV attacks (estimated 70+ "Shaheds") targeting central, southern, and northern Ukrainian oblasts, with new groups on the Sumy/Kharkiv border. 14 UAVs detected over the Black Sea, 25 UAVs near/flying towards Kremenchuk. Multiple UAVs targeting Odesa from the north after passing Pivdenne. NEW: UAVs actively targeting Chornomorsk and southern Odesa from the Black Sea. Increased concentration of UAVs around Kremenchuk. RUF Milblogger Colonelcassad claims "several dozen hits" in Kremenchuk due to weak AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, LOW on veracity). RUF also claiming successful interception of UAF UAVs over their territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim) TASS reports a "ten-fold increase" in UAV supplies to RUF forces in 2024 vs. 2022. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim, MEDIUM on specific numbers).
  • Ground Forces: RUF (TASS) claiming advances towards Sumy, supported by a Ukrainian MP's alleged statement on UAF fortification failures. Colonelcassad (RUF) continuing to highlight civilian impact in Belgorod border areas, likely to justify retaliatory actions. RUF military correspondents "Voenkor Kotenok" are publishing map screenshots related to "Sumy," "Novopavlivka," and "Zaporizhzhia" directions, indicating ongoing RUF ground interest/operations in these areas. TASS, citing Andrei Marochko, claims RUF army is conducting active combat in nearly 10 settlements in Sumy Oblast. This indicates a significant escalation in RUF claims of ground activity in Sumy beyond previously reported probing attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity of claim as it contradicts prior reporting of primarily shaping operations).
  • Information Operations (CRITICAL ESCALATION CONTINUED):
    • Deceptive Peace Overture: RUF (TASS, Operatyvnyi ZSU, «Зона СВО», Tsaplienko) publicly offering a "best peace proposal" and inviting a new round of negotiations in Istanbul on 22 JUN. This continues to be a clear attempt to project an image of de-escalation while pursuing military objectives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Continued Iran-Israel Fabrication & Amplification: RUF channels (Operatsiya Z, Colonelcassad, TASS, Alex Parker Returns) continue to heavily push the fabricated "Iran-Israel conflict." New reporting from Alex Parker Returns is now attempting to link naturally occurring earthquakes in Semnan province (Iran), the location of missile and nuclear facilities, to alleged Israeli nuclear testing or attacks, and comparing their magnitude to DPRK nuclear tests. This is a significant escalation as it attempts to provide "scientific" validation for the fabricated conflict's kinetic elements. "Operatsiya Z" is also claiming Israel is preparing for a "protracted military campaign against Iran." TASS is amplifying claims from Karin Kneissl (former Austrian Foreign Minister) that "the EU wants a change of power in the RF and acts like Israel against Iran." This statement appears designed to link the fabricated Iran-Israel conflict directly to RUF's narrative of Western aggression against Russia. NEW: Colonelcassad distributes video labeled "Arrival in Haifa. Oreshnik on minimal settings," attempting to visually support claims of Israeli strikes, despite the video showing an ascending projectile over a city. This is likely an attempt to visually legitimize fabricated kinetic events. NGP razVeedka claims "Iran launched an MRBM at southern Dnipropetrovsk." This is a significant, false claim aiming to portray the fabricated conflict as having reached Ukrainian territory and involve Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims; EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity).
    • Dehumanizing Rhetoric/Propaganda: "НгП раZVедка" continues to use highly derogatory and dehumanizing language towards Ukrainians ("проклятое государство," "свинарник") while promoting missile strikes as "reparations." This is designed to justify atrocities and rally internal support. A new message from "НгП раZVедка" uses the term "Corpse-eaters" to describe Ukrainians who allegedly feed their "perverted fantasies and atrocities" to a bot, intensifying the dehumanization and implying psychological operations. "НгП раZVедка" uses the term "captured Romanian" in a derogatory manner, implying weakness or inferiority. This broadens their dehumanization to include a NATO member, indicating an attempt to further divide international cohesion. NEW: "НгП раZVедка" posts "And finish off the survivors!", explicitly promoting the killing of wounded or captured personnel, further evidencing genocidal intent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RUF Milblogger НгП раZVедка makes a highly derogatory statement about "airfields in Hadzhibey" being unnecessary, implying their destruction or insignificance as a follow-up to the Odesa strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim).
    • False Flag / Provocation: NEW: "Operatsiya Z" (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) distributes a video titled "Ukrainians began to be killed by booby-trapped scooters," depicting an explosion near a scooter and individuals falling. This is a likely false-flag operation or fabricated event designed to accuse UAF of internal fratricide or to justify "retaliatory" actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity).
    • Historical Revisionism/Justification: TASS reports Russian MoD's new multimedia project "In the Eternal Fire of Our Memory" dedicated to the start of the "Great Patriotic War" (WWII), linking current conflict to historical narratives of existential threat. Also, RUF has circulated old German military documents from WWII (22.06.1941) likely to draw parallels or distract. TASS features a "Portrait of a Soldier" about Captain Aleksandr Zubik, an Red Army officer who allegedly repelled a German tank attack in June 1941. This reinforces the historical narrative of Russian resilience against invasion, drawing parallels to the current conflict and aiming to inspire patriotic sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Internal RUF Narrative (Belgorod): Colonelcassad video about shelled Belgorod village frames Russia as a victim, likely to justify military action and maintain domestic support. Colonelcassad releases a video featuring a Russian serviceman allegedly released from Ukrainian captivity, describing harsh conditions and mistreatment. This is a clear propaganda effort to portray Ukrainian forces negatively and justify RUF actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Internal Russian Economic Messaging: TASS is reporting on statements from Russian business figures regarding gradual key rate reductions at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), likely aimed at projecting economic stability internally. TASS reports on electronic identity cards for pensioners with QR codes from October 1st. This is a domestic message likely aimed at showing governance and social support. NEW: TASS reports VTB (Russian bank) is rethinking its retail business, to be reflected in its 2027-2029 strategic model, indicating long-term economic planning despite conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Internal Messaging on Military Equipment: "Filolog v zasade" (RUF milblogger) criticizes statements by Rostec CEO Sergey Chemezov regarding US Bradley IFVs, arguing that "huge dimensions" are not a critical factor in their defeat, especially with aerial fire correction and strike drones. This internal RUF discussion highlights potential disagreements or inconsistencies in technical assessments within the military-industrial complex and the milblogger community regarding Western military aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Domestic Reassurance (Dagestan Radiation): TASS reports that radiation levels in Dagestan meet all sanitary requirements, citing Rospotrebnadzor. This likely serves to quell any public anxieties or rumors regarding potential radiation incidents or environmental concerns, possibly linked to prior reporting on Iran/nuclear issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Internal Security Commentary: NEW: TASS features a speaker discussing security measures and the role of Rosgvardia. This indicates ongoing internal security concerns and a need to reassure the domestic audience of the state's control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS also reports a case against journalist Farida Kurbangaleeva (recognized as foreign agent in RF) for justifying terrorism and fakes about RF Armed Forces entering court, indicating ongoing internal crackdown on dissent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Assess the actual status of UAF fortifications around Sumy and the veracity of RUF claims of advance in this direction, especially the new TASS claim of active combat in nearly 10 settlements. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, HUMINT).
• CRITICAL: Analyze the new RUF narrative linking Iranian earthquakes to alleged nuclear activity/attacks AND the new claim of Iranian MRBMs striking Dnipropetrovsk. Determine if this narrative is gaining traction in international media or diplomatic circles. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, GEOINT analysis of seismic data, HUMINT).
• CRITICAL: Verify the "booby-trapped scooters" video for authenticity and intent (false-flag, propaganda, genuine but isolated incident). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: FORENSIC ANALYSIS, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Obtain and analyze the full content of the General Staff of the AFU operational information (22:00 20 JUN 25) to understand UAF tactical updates. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, UAF internal reporting).
• HIGH: Verify the reported "ten-fold increase" in RUF UAV supplies. While likely inflated, it indicates a significant ongoing production capacity. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, TECHINT, SIGINT).
• HIGH: Verify the specific routes and numbers of UAVs targeting Odesa and Kremenchuk and conduct BDA on the explosion in Odesa. Assess BDA for Kremenchuk based on RUF claims of "several dozen hits" and "weak AD" to determine actual impact and AD effectiveness. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, OSINT from local channels, BDA).
• MEDIUM: Assess the impact and intent of RUF Milblogger НгП раZVедка's derogatory comment on "airfields in Hadzhibey" and its relation to the Odesa strike. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, LINGUISTIC ANALYSIS).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Air/Missile/UAV Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate substantial capacity for large-scale, multi-directional UAV attacks aimed at saturating UAF AD. Their tactical drone capabilities for ISR and precision strike remain robust, with claimed "ten-fold" increases in supply. They are also demonstrating increasing capacity to intercept UAF UAVs over their own territory. Continued saturation attacks on Odesa and Kremenchuk axes. Multi-vector UAV approaches to specific target areas (Odesa, Kremenchuk). RUF claims of "several dozen hits" in Kremenchuk suggest intent for high impact and BDA on these large-scale strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ground Capabilities: RUF maintains offensive capabilities, particularly on the Eastern front (Novopavlivka, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy directions, as indicated by RUF milbloggers), and is increasingly leveraging UAV and KAB support. There are strong indicators of continued intent for offensive action towards Sumy. TASS claim of active combat in Sumy settlements, if true, suggests a ground component that goes beyond probing attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on claim, LOW on veracity).
• Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO remains highly adaptive and sophisticated, capable of fabricating complex international narratives, manipulating statements from global political figures, attempting to show tangible economic impacts from these fabrications (Maersk/Haifa), attempting to leverage natural events (earthquakes) to "prove" kinetic attacks in its fabricated Iran-Israel conflict, and now explicitly promoting finishing off survivors ("добить") and fabricating false-flag events (scooters) to justify atrocities or portray UAF as committing them. Their ability to integrate "peace" offers with kinetic escalation and increasingly aggressive dehumanizing rhetoric is a concerning development. Direct linkage of fabricated Middle East crisis to Western policy objectives (Kneissl statement). Expansion of dehumanizing rhetoric to include other NATO members (Romania). Fabrication of POW mistreatment claims. Attempt to visually legitimize fabricated "Haifa strikes" and audacious false claims of Iranian MRBMs striking Ukraine. The new RUF IO regarding VTB's long-term strategy demonstrates efforts to project internal economic stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Intentions: RUF intends to:
  • Sustain multi-axis kinetic pressure via mass UAV attacks and KAB/missile strikes to degrade UAF defenses and infrastructure, demoralize the population, and create opportunities for ground advances. The focus on Sumy suggests continued shaping for a potential northern offensive, with new claims of ground combat here.
  • Deceive and Divide the International Community: By proposing "peace talks" while fabricating a global crisis (Iran-Israel) and attempting to provide "scientific" evidence for it (earthquakes), RUF aims to portray itself as a peacemaker, sow discord among allies, divert attention from Ukraine, and potentially secure a more favorable negotiating position or create conditions for further military action. The Maersk claim, the earthquake narrative, the fabricated "Haifa" missile videos, and false claims of Iranian strikes on Ukraine are significant steps in making the fabricated crisis appear real and kinetic. Directly linking Western policy aims to the fabricated Iran-Israel crisis to portray the West as aggressive and justify RUF actions.
  • Undermine Ukrainian Morale & Justify Aggression: Through dehumanizing rhetoric and claims of UAF failures (fortifications), RUF seeks to demoralize Ukrainian forces and civilians, while justifying its continued aggression internally and externally. The use of "Corpse-eaters" as a derogatory term shows increased psychological warfare intent. Explicit calls to kill survivors, and false-flag operations (scooters) are designed to further justify atrocities and discredit UAF. Expansion of dehumanization to include NATO members (Romanians). Fabrication of POW mistreatment claims. The derogatory comments on "airfields in Hadzhibey" aim to demoralize regarding AD efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF:
  • Kinetic Adaptation: Continued increased number of "Shaheds" in single waves. New UAV groups entering on the Sumy/Kharkiv border area, reinforcing northern threat. Improved AD effectiveness against UAF UAVs over RF territory. Claimed "ten-fold" increase in UAV supplies points to sustained industrial capacity. Increased number of UAVs targeting Kremenchuk and Odesa. Multi-vector UAV attacks on Odesa and Kremenchuk, suggesting more complex targeting and saturation tactics. RUF milblogger claims of "several dozen hits" in Kremenchuk suggest they are attempting to maximize physical damage and propaganda effect through saturation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • IO Adaptation: Direct public "peace offers" concurrent with escalated military and information aggression represent a more brazen and sophisticated deception tactic. Direct claims of economic impact from fabricated crises (Maersk/Haifa) represent a new level of sophistication aimed at validating the disinformation. The new attempt to link natural seismic activity to fabricated kinetic attacks in Iran represents a novel and dangerous escalation in disinformation, attempting to use real-world data to support fabricated narratives. Escalated dehumanizing rhetoric ("свинарник", "проклятое государство", "Corpse-eaters") and framing missile strikes as "reparations" reflects a more aggressive psychological warfare approach. Integrating fabricated international narratives with claims from "experts" (Kneissl) to directly implicate Western states in the fabricated Middle East crisis. Broadening dehumanization to include NATO members (Romanians). Fabrication of POW mistreatment claims. Internal critique of Rostec CEO's statements on Bradley IFV, indicating internal debates within the RUF system. Explicit calls to kill survivors and alleged false-flag "booby-trapped scooter" attacks demonstrate a significant escalation in justification for atrocities and provocation. Attempts to visually (Haifa videos) and verbally (Iran MRBMs on Dnipropetrovsk) legitimize fabricated kinetic events. New TASS reporting on VTB's long-term strategy and the court case against a journalist indicates continuous adaptation in domestic messaging and internal control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: Continued real-time AD alerts demonstrate adaptive responsiveness to RUF air attacks. UAF OSINT reporting successful intercepts indicates continuous AD effectiveness despite saturation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: The sustained high volume of UAV attacks, ongoing ground operations, and complex IO campaigns suggest RUF has sufficient resources for continued high-intensity operations across multiple domains. The claimed "ten-fold" increase in UAV supply suggests robust industrial support. VTB's long-term strategy demonstrates economic confidence in sustaining prolonged conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: The continued strain on AD resources due to persistent, large-scale multi-directional UAV threats remains a critical concern.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: RUF C2 demonstrates continued coordination across kinetic operations (mass UAV launches) and its sophisticated, multi-layered information warfare campaign (simultaneous "peace offers," global crisis fabrication, and dehumanizing rhetoric). The rapid dissemination of new IO narratives (e.g., Iran earthquake links, Kneissl statements, POW claims, scooter incident, explicit calls for violence) indicates agile C2 within the information domain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: UAF C2 demonstrates effective real-time threat detection and dissemination, enabling rapid public response to aerial threats. General Staff of AFU continues to provide operational updates. UAF OSINT channels are providing accurate, real-time tracking and BDA of UAVs, indicating effective decentralized information flow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Detailed analysis of RUF's simultaneous "peace" overtures and escalated military/IO actions to identify specific strategic objectives and potential hidden agendas. This includes the claimed Maersk redirection, the new earthquake narrative, the new VTB economic messaging, and the fabricated "Haifa" missile strike videos and "Iran MRBM on Dnipropetrovsk" claims. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT, GEOINT).
• HIGH: Assess the specific capabilities and tactics of the "Kub" UAV used by RUF's 20th Combined Arms Army ("West" Grouping) to inform counter-drone strategies. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: TECHINT, OSINT).
• HIGH: Analyze the impact and reach of RUF's new narratives regarding "captured Romanians" and fabricated POW mistreatment on international opinion. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).
• NEW/HIGH: Assess the target focus of UAVs currently concentrating on a specific sector around Kremenchuk and conduct detailed BDA on the claimed "several dozen hits." (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, OSINT from local channels, BDA).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains an active defensive posture against RUF's mass UAV attacks targeting multiple regions, including new threats on the Sumy/Kharkiv border. AD is actively tracking and warning of incoming threats. AD is tracking UAVs north of Kyiv, towards Odesa and Kremenchuk. UAF AD is reporting multi-vector UAV approaches to Odesa and Kremenchuk, indicating a robust tracking capability. UAF OSINT reports indicate successful engagement of UAVs targeting Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Readiness: UAF General Staff issued operational information as of 22:00, indicating active command and control and continuous situational awareness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes: UAF Air Force continues real-time threat detection and public alerts for broad areas, contributing to civilian safety. AD is tracking and engaging incoming large UAV waves, including new routing towards Kremenets and Odesa. UAF OSINT indicates successful interception of UAVs targeting Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Setbacks: RUF propaganda claiming UAF failures in fortification efforts near Sumy, if true, would represent a significant setback for defensive preparations. (LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity, HIGH on RUF attempt to frame as setback). The sheer volume of incoming "Shaheds" continues to strain AD resources. An explosion in Odesa indicates successful RUF targeting despite AD efforts. RUF claims of "several dozen hits" in Kremenchuk, if verified, would represent a significant setback for local AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on Odesa explosion, LOW on veracity of Kremenchuk BDA).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense/Counter-UAV: Continued and urgent requirement for AD systems and interceptors capable of handling mass UAV saturation attacks across widely dispersed areas, especially with the increased threat to the Sumy/Kharkiv border and new UAV routing (e.g., Kremenets, Odesa).
• Counter-IO: Sustained resources are required for developing and disseminating rapid, comprehensive counter-narratives to combat Russia's increasingly sophisticated and aggressive information warfare, especially its direct public "peace" offers that accompany kinetic and IO escalation, the new tactic of demonstrating "real-world" impacts from fabricated crises (Maersk, earthquake narrative, fabricated Haifa missile strikes, Iran MRBMs on Dnipropetrovsk), leveraging natural phenomena (earthquakes) for fabricated kinetic events, as well as the expanded dehumanization, explicit calls to kill survivors, and fabricated false-flag events (scooters).

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Assess the effectiveness of current AD systems against the latest large-scale "Shahed" attacks and new UAV routing to identify areas for improvement or additional resource requirements. This includes detailed BDA on Odesa and Kremenchuk strikes. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, SIGINT).
• MEDIUM: Evaluate public reaction to RUF's "peace offers" and the Maersk/earthquake/Haifa/Iran MRBM claims in Ukraine and among international partners to understand the effectiveness of this deception tactic. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian:
  • "Peace Offer" Deception (CRITICAL): RUF continues to actively and publicly propose a "best peace offer" and suggest new negotiation rounds in Istanbul. This remains a classic deception strategy aimed at creating a narrative of Russian willingness for peace while simultaneously continuing aggressive kinetic and information warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Escalated Iran-Israel Fabrication (CRITICAL - NEW ESCALATION): RUF continues to actively propagate the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis," now with increased detail and direct manipulation of statements from foreign leaders and fabricated Iranian official statements. The new attempt by Alex Parker Returns to link natural seismic activity in Iran's Semnan province (location of missile/nuclear facilities) to alleged Israeli nuclear tests or attacks, comparing magnitudes to DPRK nuclear tests, is a significant escalation. This seeks to provide "scientific" validation for the fabricated kinetic conflict. "Operatsiya Z" is further amplifying claims of Israeli preparations for "protracted military campaign against Iran." TASS amplifies Karin Kneissl (former Austrian FM) stating "EU wants change of power in RF and acts like Israel against Iran," directly linking the fabricated Iran-Israel conflict to RUF's core narrative of Western aggression. NEW: Colonelcassad distributes a video purporting to show a "Haifa arrival" (likely fabricated, showing an ascending projectile). NGP raZVeedka audaciously claims "Iran launched a medium-range ballistic missile at southern Dnipropetrovsk," a complete fabrication designed to connect the invented Middle East conflict to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claims; EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity).
  • Dehumanizing Rhetoric and Justification of Violence (NEW ESCALATION): "НгП раZVедка" channels are increasingly using extreme dehumanizing language ("проклятое государство," "свинарник," and now "трупоеды" - corpse-eaters) and framing missile strikes as "reparations." This rhetoric directly contributes to psychological operations aimed at justifying violence and atrocities against Ukrainians and rallying domestic support for continued aggression. The reference to "feeding a bot with fantasies and atrocities" is likely a psychological operation aimed at demoralizing or discouraging UAF sympathizers. "НгП раZVедка" employs the derogatory term "captured Romanian," expanding dehumanization to a NATO member and signaling an attempt to undermine NATO cohesion. NEW: "НгП раZVедка" explicitly states "And finish off the survivors!", indicating a clear and dangerous escalation to promoting war crimes. The derogatory statement about "airfields in Hadzhibey" aims to devalue Ukrainian defense efforts following a strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • False Flag / Provocation (NEW): "Operatsiya Z" (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) disseminates a video claiming "Ukrainians began to be killed by booby-trapped scooters." This is likely a manufactured event or gross misrepresentation, aimed at creating a pretext for RUF "retaliation" or discrediting UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF claim; LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity).
  • Narrative of UAF Failure & RUF Advance: TASS reporting on Ukrainian MP Goncharenko's alleged statement about UAF fortification failures near Sumy is a clear attempt to demoralize Ukrainians and suggest RUF's inevitable advance. RUF milbloggers are also posting maps of their claimed directions of advance/interest (Sumy, Novopavlivka, Zaporizhzhia). TASS claims RUF army is conducting active combat in nearly 10 settlements in Sumy Oblast, escalating the narrative of RUF ground success in the north. RUF Milblogger Colonelcassad explicitly claims "several dozen hits" in Kremenchuk due to "weak AD," attempting to highlight UAF defensive failures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Historical Revisionism/War Justification: Russian MoD's new WWII project ahead of "Day of Memory and Sorrow" (June 22) reinforces the narrative of an existential struggle against "Nazism," linking historical events to the current invasion to justify aggression and foster nationalistic sentiment. TASS details the "feat" of a Red Army Captain from June 1941, directly linking current conflict to past struggles against invasion, reinforcing the "existential threat" narrative and aiming to inspire patriotic fervor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Economic Stability Messaging: TASS reporting on positive economic sentiment from business leaders at SPIEF aims to reassure the domestic population of Russia's economic resilience. TASS reports on digital pensioner IDs, aimed at showing effective governance. NEW: TASS reports VTB (Russian bank) is rethinking its retail business, to be reflected in its 2027-2029 strategic model, indicating long-term economic planning despite conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Military-Technical Debate: "Filolog v zasade" (RUF milblogger) criticizes Rostec CEO's statements on Bradley IFV dimensions, arguing against their critical significance in defeat by drones. This internal debate suggests either a genuine difference in technical assessment or an attempt to manage expectations regarding RUF capabilities vs. Western equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Fabricated POW Mistreatment: Colonelcassad publishes a video of an alleged RUF POW describing harsh treatment in Ukrainian captivity. This is a clear propaganda effort to portray Ukrainian forces negatively and justify RUF actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Domestic Reassurance: TASS reports on normal radiation levels in Dagestan, likely addressing potential public concerns or rumors. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Internal Security Commentary: TASS features a speaker discussing security measures and the role of Rosgvardia. This indicates ongoing internal security concerns and a need to reassure the domestic audience of the state's control. NEW: TASS reports a court case against journalist Farida Kurbangaleeva for justifying terrorism and fakes about RF Armed Forces, demonstrating an ongoing internal crackdown on dissent and control of information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ukrainian:
  • Transparency & Call for Action: UAF leadership (Air Force) continues real-time reporting on RUF UAV and KAB threats, maintaining public awareness and trust. General Staff of AFU provides official operational updates. Continued AD alerts for Kyiv, Odesa, and Kremenchuk areas. Ukrainian OSINT channels (Mykolaivsky Vanok, Suspilne) are providing real-time updates and BDA, including successful interceptions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Counter-Propaganda: Proactive reporting from UAF and independent Ukrainian channels helps to expose Russian lies, though the sheer volume and increasing sophistication of RUF disinformation (e.g., Maersk claim, earthquake narrative, Kneissl statements, fabricated POW claims, fabricated Haifa strikes, Iran MRBM on Dnipropetrovsk, scooter incident, explicit calls for violence) is challenging to counter effectively without significant, coordinated effort.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Public morale remains under pressure from persistent and large-scale UAV attacks. The explicit "peace offers" from RUF, if not immediately and decisively countered, could potentially sow confusion or false hope, though the constant attacks are a strong counter-argument. The dehumanizing rhetoric aims to degrade morale. The specific targeting of Odesa with an explosion will cause further public distress. The claim of "several dozen hits" in Kremenchuk by RUF, if believed, would contribute to a sense of vulnerability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian: The need for aggressive new IO narratives, including victimhood narratives (Belgorod video, POW claims), false-flag operations (scooters), and positive economic messaging, suggests ongoing efforts to maintain internal support for the war. Internal criticism of official statements (Rostec CEO) may indicate some level of independent thought among milbloggers, but generally aligns with pro-war narratives. The VTB economic update and the court case against a journalist aim to project internal stability and control.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Diversion Effectiveness (CRITICAL): RUF's continued and even more sophisticated fabrication of the "Iran-Israel crisis," now with direct diplomatic "peace" offers, claims of high-level meetings, economic impact (Maersk), new attempts to "scientifically" validate kinetic events (earthquakes), and fabricated kinetic events (Haifa missile strikes, Iran MRBM on Dnipropetrovsk) continues to effectively divert international attention and potentially resources from Ukraine. The aim remains to create an alternative geopolitical crisis that forces Western powers to shift focus and potentially resources, influencing policy decisions (as evidenced by previous EU oil cap delay). Direct linkage by Kneissl of EU policy goals (regime change in RF) to the fabricated Iran-Israel conflict is a significant attempt to frame Western actions as aggressive and justify Russia's geopolitical maneuvering. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Impact of Deceptive Diplomacy: Russia's "peace offers," despite their obvious disingenuousness, are designed to create a perception of Russian reasonableness and potentially pressure some Western partners to push for premature negotiations unfavorable to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Monitor international media and diplomatic responses to Russia's new, more detailed fabrications of the "Iran-Israel crisis" and its simultaneous "peace offers," especially the Maersk claim, the earthquake narrative, the Kneissl statements, the fabricated "Haifa" missile videos, the "Iran MRBM on Dnipropetrovsk" claim, and the new RUF economic messaging. Assess if this dual-pronged approach is successfully gaining traction or influencing diplomatic initiatives regarding Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Analyze how global political figures and institutions react to Russia's manipulation of their statements or the fabricated crises, and identify opportunities for UAF to engage directly to counter these narratives. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained Large-Scale Multi-Directional UAV Attacks: RUF will continue to launch large waves of UAVs (70+ "Shaheds") against multiple Ukrainian Oblasts (Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kropyvnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Kremenets, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Odesa), with an increased focus on the Sumy/Kharkiv border areas, aiming to stretch UAF air defenses, degrade infrastructure, and conduct reconnaissance, while also attempting to attrit UAF military assets and terrorize the civilian population. New UAV routing (e.g., Kremenets, Odesa) will be explored and intensified, possibly using multi-vector approaches to saturate specific urban targets. RUF will attempt to maximize BDA claims on these strikes for propaganda purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Intensified Ground Pressure (Eastern Front, Continued Shaping in North with Expanded Claims): RUF will maintain severe ground pressure on Eastern axes (Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupyansk) and continue shaping operations with air/missile strikes and probing assaults on the Sumy border areas. RUF IO will continue to claim advances towards Sumy and attribute any UAF difficulties to internal failures (e.g., fortifications), supported by milblogger map posts. RUF is likely to expand claims of direct ground combat in Sumy Oblast, even if actual gains are limited or non-existent, to support the narrative of a northern offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Escalated and More Audacious Information Warfare (Cover for Action & Distraction - NEW ELEMENTS): RUF will further escalate its information warfare by creating new, even more explicit and outrageous fabrications related to the "Iran-Israel crisis," providing increasingly "detailed" but false evidence and leveraging quotes from international figures, attempting to show real-world economic impacts to validate the false narrative (e.g., Maersk claim), attempting to use natural phenomena (earthquakes) to "prove" kinetic attacks in this fabricated crisis, and fabricating kinetic events (e.g., Haifa missile videos, Iran MRBMs on Dnipropetrovsk). This will include directly linking the fabricated crisis to Western policy goals and actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Concurrently, RUF will continue to push disingenuous "peace offers" to portray itself as rational and peaceful, using this as a strategic cover for ongoing military aggression or preparations for future escalations. Expect a ramp-up in highly dehumanizing rhetoric against Ukrainians (e.g., "Corpse-eaters"), explicit calls to kill survivors, aggressive anti-Western narratives, coupled with psychological operations (e.g., body transfers, blaming UAF for fortification failures, fabricated POW mistreatment, false-flag "booby-trapped scooter" incidents). Dehumanization will expand to include other NATO states/peoples. RUF will also continue to project internal stability and control through economic messaging and internal security crackdowns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Northern Ground Offensive with Cyber-Enabled Terror & Global Deception (Reiterated and Reinforced - WITH NEW IO MECHANISMS): RUF initiates a large-scale ground offensive on the Sumy/Chernihiv axis towards Kyiv, aiming for a significant breakthrough, supported by simultaneous, overwhelming multi-domain attacks (ballistic missiles, KABs, mass UAVs, potential cyberattacks targeting UAF C2 and critical infrastructure). This offensive would be accompanied by coordinated false-flag terror attacks within Ukraine or a neighboring state, falsely attributed to internal Ukrainian dissent or "terrorist groups," amplified by RUF IO channels with fabricated "evidence." This evidence could now leverage manipulated natural phenomena (e.g., earthquake data) to "prove" kinetic events or other fabricated claims, potentially including radiation scare tactics. This could include new, explicit false-flag claims of Ukrainian forces or civilians committing atrocities (e.g., "booby-trapped scooters") to justify RUF's own extreme violence, including against survivors. Concurrently, RUF will launch a massive, globally coordinated cyberattack against critical infrastructure in a NATO or EU member state, falsely attributing it to "Iranian" or "Israeli" actors within the manufactured Middle East crisis, or falsely claiming these are attacks from Ukrainian "terrorist" elements. This would be coupled with intensified dehumanization, including of NATO members (e.g., "Romanians"), explicit calls to kill survivors, and widespread fabrication of POW abuses. This aims to paralyze key Western response mechanisms, divert all attention and resources to the fabricated "crisis" and terror events, and force a Western response that directly benefits Russia's geopolitical objectives in Ukraine, allowing for rapid gains on the battlefield. The intensified dehumanizing rhetoric and explicit comparisons to totalitarian propaganda would be used to justify extreme violence and atrocities during this offensive, particularly against civilians and POWs, while simultaneously discrediting any counter-narratives from Ukraine or its allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The new "peace offers" and the attempts to show tangible impacts from fabricated crises (Maersk, earthquake narrative, fabricated Haifa strikes, Iran MRBM on Dnipropetrovsk), and direct links to Western policy objectives, are precisely the kind of strategic deception that would provide political cover and global distraction for such a move.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 6-12 hours):
  • RUF: Expect continued, high-volume multi-directional UAV activity, particularly on the Sumy/Kharkiv border, Odesa, and Kremenchuk axes, potentially followed by KAB strikes. Further amplification of the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" with new, more audacious fabricated "evidence" (e.g., earthquake links, Kneissl statements, fabricated Haifa missile videos, Iran MRBMs on Dnipropetrovsk) and claims of economic impact (Maersk). Continued dehumanizing rhetoric and explicit threats/claims of terror acts and fabricated POW mistreatment, including explicit calls to kill survivors and new false-flag incidents like the "scooters." The "peace offer" narrative will be pushed heavily. RUF will continue to claim advances towards Sumy and expanded ground combat there. RUF will amplify claims of successful strikes on Kremenchuk.
  • UAF Decision Point: Maintain highest AD readiness, especially in Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kremenets, Odesa, and other major urban centers under UAV/KAB threat. Intensify ISR on Northern (Sumy/Chernihiv) and Eastern (Kupyansk, Zaporizhzhia, Novopavlivka) axes for early warning of any ground force buildup. Immediately and publicly debunk new RUF IO fabrications, particularly the recontextualized quotes from foreign leaders, the disingenuous "peace offers," the Maersk claim, the earthquake narrative, the Kneissl statements, the fabricated Haifa missile videos, the Iran MRBM on Dnipropetrovsk claim, the fabricated POW mistreatment claims, and the "booby-trapped scooter" incident. Engage international partners to amplify these counter-narratives. Prepare for potential mass casualty events due to civilian targeting and potential terror attacks. Counter RUF claims regarding UAF fortification failures and BDA in Kremenchuk.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: Potential for another large-scale missile strike. Continued high-intensity ground and air pressure. RUF IO will seek new "developments" in its manufactured Middle East narrative, potentially linked to false-flag events or further attempts to undermine Western unity by exploiting political divisions. Intensified efforts to secure and publicize non-Western partnerships.
  • UAF Decision Point: Prioritize ISR on all RUF airfields and ground force concentrations for early warning of major offensive operations, especially in the north (Sumy/Chernihiv). Engage international partners to directly and unequivocally counter the extreme RUF IO, providing irrefutable evidence of the deception and its strategic implications. Reinforce defensive positions, particularly in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, and prepare flexible reserves, especially for the Kyiv axis. Actively promote successful UAF actions and resilience stories to counter RUF propaganda. Enhance internal security and counter-intelligence efforts to identify and neutralize potential terror cells or saboteurs following RUF's public promotion of such tactics. Be prepared to publicly reject any disingenuous RUF "peace" proposals, emphasizing that peace can only be achieved through full territorial integrity and adherence to international law.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source ISR on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Belarus border areas for any indicators of RUF ground force buildup, logistics, or command post activity that could precede a major offensive. Focus on patterns of UAV use, especially Lancet, in these areas. Verify RUF claims of advance towards Sumy, specifically the new TASS claim of active combat in nearly 10 settlements. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: All-source intelligence, GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT).
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Establish a dedicated and expanded counter-disinformation cell focusing solely on real-time debunking of Russia's fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" (including the Maersk claim, the new earthquake-linking narrative, the Kneissl statements, fabricated Haifa missile videos, and the "Iran MRBM on Dnipropetrovsk" claim) and its new, terror-promoting and dehumanizing rhetoric (e.g., "Corpse-eaters," "captured Romanians," fabricated POW abuse claims, explicit calls to kill survivors, and the "booby-trapped scooter" incident). AND its disingenuous "peace offers." This cell must be capable of rapid analysis of manipulated media (e.g., staged statistics, reframed legitimate news, alleged terror attacks, fabricated "scientific" evidence) and linguistic analysis of extremist narratives to inform immediate counter-narratives. Special emphasis on exposing the manipulation of foreign leaders' statements and the strategic deception inherent in simultaneous "peace" and aggression. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT, GEOINT for seismic data analysis, FORENSIC ANALYSIS of video/image evidence).
3. URGENT/CRITICAL: Conduct rapid, thorough BDA of any new claimed RUF successes or terror attacks, including the claimed destruction of UAF drone control points, the explosion in Odesa, and any impact from UAVs targeting Kremenchuk. Verification of these events is paramount for operational assessment and counter-IO. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT, FORENSIC).
4. HIGH: Intensify HUMINT and SIGINT collection regarding RUF's tactical drone operations (e.g., "Kub" assets) to understand their C2, capabilities, and vulnerabilities, and verify claimed increases in supply. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, SIGINT, TECHINT).

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain highest AD alert posture across all Oblasts, especially Kyiv, Poltava, Kryvyi Rih, Sumy, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Kremenets, Kharkiv, and Odesa, against persistent multi-directional mass UAV and KAB threats. Prioritize the deployment of mobile AD units to vulnerable areas and critical infrastructure. Adapt AD responses to new UAV routing on the Sumy/Kharkiv border and towards central/southern oblasts (Kremenets, Odesa), including multi-vector approaches.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Accelerate the integration and deployment of advanced counter-UAV and EW systems, particularly those effective against loitering munitions and large "Shahed" waves, to frontline units and critical infrastructure defense.
3. URGENT: Reinforce passive air defense measures and provide updated force protection guidance for civilian populations and first responders in areas subject to frequent UAV/KAB attacks. Develop specific protocols for identifying and responding to potential terror tactics and fabricated POW scenarios, as well as explicit threats to kill survivors.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain a robust defensive posture and combat readiness across all Eastern Front axes, including Zaporizhzhia, Novopavlivka, and Kupyansk, and reinforce positions in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. Prepare for potential MDCOA ground offensive in the North towards Kyiv. Verify and, if necessary, expedite fortification efforts near Sumy, particularly in light of new RUF claims of ground combat in the area.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Prepare and position flexible strategic reserves for rapid deployment to the Sumy/Chernihiv axis in case of a major RUF ground offensive. Expedite engineering and fortification efforts in these northern border regions.
3. ONGOING: Continue to inflict maximum personnel and equipment losses on RUF through effective defensive operations, counter-battery fire, and precision strikes, leveraging intelligence from drone operations.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an unprecedented, globally coordinated information campaign to expose and directly counter Russia's new, more audacious fabrications of the "Iran-Israel crisis," including the staged statistics, reframed legitimate news, the Maersk claim, the new earthquake-linking narrative, the Kneissl statements, the fabricated Haifa missile videos, and the false claim of Iran MRBMs on Dnipropetrovsk. Emphasize the direct link between this destabilization and Russia's military objectives in Ukraine. Simultaneously, forcefully reject and expose the disingenuous nature of Russia's "peace offers" as a strategic deception aimed at providing cover for military aggression or setting conditions for future escalations.
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Develop and widely disseminate robust counter-narratives to Russia's escalating dehumanizing rhetoric (e.g., "свинарник," "проклятое государство," "трупоеды," "captured Romanians," explicit promotion of killing survivors, promotion of terror tactics, fabricated POW abuse claims, and the "booby-trapped scooter" incident), highlighting its genocidal implications and the hypocrisy of the accuser. Engage international human rights organizations and religious leaders to condemn such language and warn of potential atrocities. Explicitly counter claims of "body transfers" by demanding verifiable, transparent procedures if genuine.
3. URGENT: Engage international partners to re-focus attention and aid specifically on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, explicitly countering any narrative that shifts focus to fabricated crises. Proactively address and seek to mitigate the impact of internal RUF IO (e.g., fake MVS warnings, corruption claims against UAF). Actively counter Russian claims about UAF fortification failures and ground advances in Sumy.
4. ONGOING: Continue to document and disseminate evidence of RUF war crimes and internal issues (e.g., need for unit-level fundraising, elite discontent, and signs of audience fatigue among propagandists, internal military-technical debates, economic messaging, internal security crackdowns) to maintain international pressure and discredit RUF's narratives. Highlight UAF's successes in counter-drone innovation and effective defensive actions to project strength and resilience.

END OF REPORT.