Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 201746Z JUN 25 CLASSIFICATION: SECRET // NOFORN REPORTING UNIT: G2 ANALYST, UAF HIGH COMMAND

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Northern Front (Sumy/Chernihiv Oblasts, Kyiv, Poltava, Kremenets): New air warnings issued for Kropyvnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, and Kremenets, indicating a broad, multi-directional UAV threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Southern Front (Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Kherson Oblasts): New groups of enemy UAVs detected heading towards Dnipro from the southeast. Multiple groups also transiting through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Eastern Front (Kupyansk Direction): RUF (Rybar) provides a tactical analysis of the Kupyansk direction, implying continued RUF focus on this axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF intent to maintain pressure, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on specific details without the content).
• General UAV Threat: Estimated 70+ "Shahed" UAVs currently over Ukraine, indicating a large-scale, ongoing multi-directional saturation attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• No new significant reports affecting battlefield conditions.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
  • Air Defense (AD): Actively issuing real-time alerts for multiple cities (Kropyvnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kremenets, Dnipro, Mykolaiv) indicating broad area coverage and active tracking of large UAV formations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • General: UAF maintains a defensive posture, focused on AD and countering RUF ground assaults.
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Air Operations: Continuing large-scale, multi-directional UAV attacks (estimated 70+ "Shaheds") targeting central, southern, and northern Ukrainian oblasts. New reports of UAVs targeting Dnipro and Mykolaiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RUF (Colonelcassad) released drone footage claiming to show a "Kub" UAV destroying a UAF UAV control point, implying continued tactical drone superiority claims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF capability for drone strikes; LOW CONFIDENCE on specific BDA).
  • Ground Forces: RUF (Rybar) continues to highlight tactical analysis for the Kupyansk direction, suggesting ongoing offensive operations or preparations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Information Operations (CRITICAL ESCALATION CONTINUED):
    • Deceptive Peace Overture: RUF (TASS, Operatyvnyi ZSU, «Зона СВО», Tsaplienko) is publicly offering a "best peace proposal" and inviting a new round of negotiations in Istanbul on 22 JUN. This is a clear attempt to project an image of de-escalation while pursuing military objectives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Continued Iran-Israel Fabrication & Amplification: RUF channels (Operatsiya Z, Colonelcassad, TASS, Alex Parker Returns) continue to heavily push the fabricated "Iran-Israel conflict," explicitly quoting Trump's statements ("Iran 2 weeks maximum for diplomacy," "will not call for an end to Israeli strikes") and now fabricating Iranian official statements to support the narrative ("Iran assumes US used talks as cover for Israeli strike," "Iran FM to meet Putin 23 JUN"). The narrative includes heightened claims about Iran being weeks/months from nuclear weapons (Alex Parker Returns). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Body Retrieval Propaganda: RUF (Colonelcassad) claims "About 3,000 bodies are ready for shipment to the Ukrainian side if it is ready to accept them," a likely psychological operation aimed at demoralizing Ukrainians and potentially exaggerating UAF losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Anti-Western/Anti-Ukraine Messaging: Trump's quotes are recontextualized to suggest he warns those urging Ukraine to continue the conflict to "watch their language," furthering RUF's narrative of Western disunity and undermining support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Denial of Disinformation: RUF (TASS) denies "throwbacks" about Maria Zakharova having US citizenship, a likely attempt to deflect from internal issues or counter-IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Assess the precise routing, number, and composition of the current estimated 70+ "Shahed" UAVs to understand RUF's targeting priorities and adapt AD responses. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, IMINT).
• HIGH: Analyze RUF claims of destroying UAF UAV control points to verify BDA and assess potential impact on UAF drone operations. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, IMINT).
• HIGH: Determine the specific tactical shifts in the Kupyansk direction as highlighted by Rybar to understand RUF's immediate ground intentions. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, IMINT, HUMINT).
• MEDIUM: Verify the veracity of RUF claims regarding 3,000 bodies prepared for transfer to assess their psychological impact and potential for exploitation. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Air/Missile/UAV Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate substantial capacity for large-scale, multi-directional UAV attacks aimed at saturating UAF AD, exhausting resources, and hitting critical infrastructure/urban centers. Their tactical drone capabilities for ISR and precision strike remain robust. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Ground Capabilities: RUF maintains offensive capabilities, particularly on the Eastern front, and continues to use drone support for targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO remains highly adaptive and sophisticated, capable of fabricating complex international narratives, manipulating statements from global political figures, and simultaneously promoting "peace" offers while escalating kinetic actions. Their ability to integrate these elements into a cohesive deception strategy is concerning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Intentions: RUF intends to:
  • Sustain multi-axis kinetic pressure via mass UAV attacks and KAB strikes to degrade UAF defenses and infrastructure, demoralize the population, and create opportunities for ground advances.
  • Deceive and Divide the International Community: By proposing "peace talks" while fabricating a global crisis (Iran-Israel), RUF aims to portray itself as a peacemaker, sow discord among allies, divert attention from Ukraine, and potentially secure a more favorable negotiating position or create conditions for further military action.
  • Undermine Western Unity: By carefully recontextualizing statements from Western leaders, RUF aims to demonstrate and exacerbate perceived divisions within NATO and other alliances, undermining support for Ukraine.
  • Conduct Psychological Operations: Utilize propaganda like "body transfer" claims to demoralize UAF and the Ukrainian population. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF:
  • Kinetic Adaptation: Increased number of "Shaheds" in single waves (estimated 70+) suggests an attempt to further overwhelm UAF AD. New focus on Dnipro and Mykolaiv axes for UAVs.
  • IO Adaptation: Direct public "peace offers" concurrent with escalated military and information aggression represent a more brazen and sophisticated deception tactic. Enhanced manipulation of international political figures' statements in manufactured narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: Continued real-time AD alerts demonstrate adaptive responsiveness to RUF air attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: The sustained high volume of UAV attacks and proposals for peace talks suggest RUF has sufficient resources for continued high-intensity operations while also engaging in complex diplomatic signaling. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: The continued strain on AD resources due to persistent, large-scale multi-directional UAV threats remains a critical concern.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: RUF C2 demonstrates continued coordination across kinetic operations (mass UAV launches) and its sophisticated, multi-layered information warfare campaign (simultaneous "peace offers" and global crisis fabrication). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: UAF C2 demonstrates effective real-time threat detection and dissemination, enabling rapid public response to aerial threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Detailed analysis of RUF's simultaneous "peace" overtures and escalated military/IO actions to identify specific strategic objectives and potential hidden agendas. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Assess the specific capabilities and tactics of the "Kub" UAV used by RUF's 20th Combined Arms Army ("West" Grouping) to inform counter-drone strategies. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: TECHINT, OSINT).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains an active defensive posture against RUF's mass UAV attacks targeting multiple regions. AD is actively tracking and warning of incoming threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Resilience: UAF continues to demonstrate resilience in the face of persistent air attacks and sophisticated information warfare, effectively communicating threats and managing public response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes: UAF Air Force continues real-time threat detection and public alerts for broad areas, contributing to civilian safety. AD is tracking and engaging incoming large UAV waves. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Setbacks: The sheer volume of incoming "Shaheds" (70+ estimated) represents a significant aerial threat, straining AD resources despite successful interceptions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense/Counter-UAV: Continued and urgent requirement for AD systems and interceptors capable of handling mass UAV saturation attacks across widely dispersed areas.
• Counter-IO: Sustained resources are required for developing and disseminating rapid, comprehensive counter-narratives to combat Russia's increasingly sophisticated and aggressive information warfare, especially its direct public "peace" offers that accompany kinetic and IO escalation.

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Assess the effectiveness of current AD systems against the latest large-scale "Shahed" attacks to identify areas for improvement or additional resource requirements. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: BDA, SIGINT).
• MEDIUM: Evaluate public reaction to RUF's "peace offers" in Ukraine and among international partners to understand the effectiveness of this deception tactic. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian:
  • "Peace Offer" Deception (CRITICAL): RUF is actively and publicly proposing a "best peace offer" and suggesting new negotiation rounds in Istanbul. This is a classic deception strategy aimed at creating a narrative of Russian willingness for peace while simultaneously continuing aggressive kinetic and information warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Escalated Iran-Israel Fabrication (CRITICAL): RUF continues to actively propagate the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis," now with increased detail and direct manipulation of statements from foreign leaders (Trump's comments on diplomacy timeframe, non-intervention on strikes) and fabricated Iranian official statements, including the highly provocative claim of Iran's FM meeting Putin (likely for "crisis consultation"). This aims to deepen the illusion of a real crisis and further divert global attention. Claims of Iran being "weeks/months" from nuclear weapons are designed to heighten panic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Psychological Operations: The claim of 3,000 bodies ready for transfer is a potent psychological tool aimed at demoralizing the UAF and the Ukrainian population by exaggerating casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Undermining Western Unity: Continued recontextualization of Trump's statements to portray Western leaders as divided or hesitant to support Ukraine's continued defense (e.g., "watch their language"). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ukrainian:
  • Transparency & Call for Action: UAF leadership (Air Force) continues real-time reporting on RUF UAV and KAB threats, maintaining public awareness and trust.
  • Counter-Propaganda: Proactive reporting from UAF and independent Ukrainian channels (Operatyvnyi ZSU) on the fabricated Iran-Israel conflict and US military involvement (5 US warships in Eastern Mediterranean) helps to expose Russian lies, though the sheer volume of RUF disinformation is challenging to counter.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Public morale remains under pressure from persistent and large-scale UAV attacks. The explicit "peace offers" from RUF, if not immediately and decisively countered, could potentially sow confusion or false hope, though the constant attacks are a strong counter-argument.
• Russian: No new information on Russian domestic morale. The need for aggressive new IO narratives suggests internal challenges in maintaining engagement.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Diversion Effectiveness (CRITICAL): RUF's continued and even more sophisticated fabrication of the "Iran-Israel crisis," now with direct diplomatic "peace" offers and claims of high-level meetings, continues to effectively divert international attention and potentially resources from Ukraine. The aim remains to create an alternative geopolitical crisis that forces Western powers to shift focus and potentially resources, influencing policy decisions (as evidenced by previous EU oil cap delay). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Impact of Deceptive Diplomacy: Russia's "peace offers" at the UN Security Council, despite their obvious disingenuousness, are designed to create a perception of Russian reasonableness and potentially pressure some Western partners to push for premature negotiations unfavorable to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Monitor international media and diplomatic responses to Russia's new, more detailed fabrications of the "Iran-Israel crisis" and its simultaneous "peace offers." Assess if this dual-pronged approach is successfully gaining traction or influencing diplomatic initiatives regarding Ukraine. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Analyze how global political figures and institutions react to Russia's manipulation of their statements or the fabricated crises, and identify opportunities for UAF to engage directly to counter these narratives. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained Large-Scale Multi-Directional UAV Attacks: RUF will continue to launch large waves of UAVs (70+ "Shaheds") against multiple Ukrainian Oblasts (Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kropyvnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Kremenets, Mykolaiv), aiming to stretch UAF air defenses, degrade infrastructure, and conduct reconnaissance, while also attempting to attrit UAF military assets and terrorize the civilian population.
• Intensified Ground Pressure (Eastern Front, Continued Shaping in North): RUF will maintain severe ground pressure on Eastern axes (Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupyansk) and continue shaping operations with air/missile strikes and probing assaults on the Sumy border areas.
• Escalated and More Audacious Information Warfare (Cover for Action & Distraction): RUF will further escalate its information warfare by creating new, even more explicit and outrageous fabrications related to the "Iran-Israel crisis," providing increasingly "detailed" but false evidence and leveraging quotes from international figures. Concurrently, RUF will continue to push disingenuous "peace offers" to portray itself as rational and peaceful, using this as a strategic cover for ongoing military aggression or preparations for future escalations. Expect a ramp-up in highly dehumanizing rhetoric against Ukrainians and aggressive anti-Western narratives, coupled with psychological operations (e.g., body transfers).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Northern Ground Offensive with Cyber-Enabled Terror & Global Deception (Reiterated and Reinforced): RUF initiates a large-scale ground offensive on the Sumy/Chernihiv axis towards Kyiv, aiming for a significant breakthrough, supported by simultaneous, overwhelming multi-domain attacks (ballistic missiles, KABs, mass UAVs, potential cyberattacks targeting UAF C2 and critical infrastructure). This offensive would be accompanied by coordinated false-flag terror attacks within Ukraine or a neighboring state, falsely attributed to internal Ukrainian dissent or "terrorist groups," amplified by RUF IO channels with fabricated "evidence." Concurrently, RUF will launch a massive, globally coordinated cyberattack against critical infrastructure in a NATO or EU member state, falsely attributing it to "Iranian" or "Israeli" actors within the manufactured Middle East crisis, or falsely claiming these are attacks from Ukrainian "terrorist" elements. This aims to paralyze key Western response mechanisms, divert all attention and resources to the fabricated "crisis" and terror events, and force a Western response that directly benefits Russia's geopolitical objectives in Ukraine, allowing for rapid gains on the battlefield. The intensified dehumanizing rhetoric and explicit comparisons to totalitarian propaganda would be used to justify extreme violence and atrocities during this offensive, particularly against civilians and POWs, while simultaneously discrediting any counter-narratives from Ukraine or its allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The new "peace offers" are precisely the kind of strategic deception that would provide political cover for such a move.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 6-12 hours):
  • RUF: Expect continued, high-volume multi-directional UAV activity, potentially followed by KAB strikes. Further amplification of the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" with new, more audacious fabricated "evidence," particularly drawing on international political figures. Continued dehumanizing rhetoric and explicit threats/claims of terror acts. The "peace offer" narrative will be pushed heavily.
  • UAF Decision Point: Maintain highest AD readiness, especially in Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, and other major urban centers under UAV/KAB threat. Intensify ISR on Northern (Sumy/Chernihiv) and Eastern (Kupyansk, Zaporizhzhia) axes for early warning of any ground force buildup. Immediately and publicly debunk new RUF IO fabrications, particularly the recontextualized quotes from foreign leaders and the disingenuous "peace offers," engaging international partners to amplify these counter-narratives. Prepare for potential mass casualty events due to civilian targeting and potential terror attacks.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: Potential for another large-scale missile strike. Continued high-intensity ground and air pressure. RUF IO will seek new "developments" in its fabricated Middle East narrative, potentially linked to false-flag events or further attempts to undermine Western unity by exploiting political divisions. Intensified efforts to secure and publicize non-Western partnerships.
  • UAF Decision Point: Prioritize ISR on all RUF airfields and ground force concentrations for early warning of major offensive operations, especially in the north. Engage international partners to directly and unequivocally counter the extreme RUF IO, providing irrefutable evidence of the deception and its strategic implications. Reinforce defensive positions, particularly in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, and prepare flexible reserves, especially for the Kyiv axis. Actively promote successful UAF actions and resilience stories to counter RUF propaganda. Enhance internal security and counter-intelligence efforts to identify and neutralize potential terror cells or saboteurs following RUF's public promotion of such tactics. Be prepared to publicly reject any disingenuous RUF "peace" proposals, emphasizing that peace can only be achieved through full territorial integrity and adherence to international law.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source ISR on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Belarus border areas for any indicators of RUF ground force buildup, logistics, or command post activity that could precede a major offensive. Focus on patterns of UAV use, especially Lancet, in these areas. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: All-source intelligence, GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT).
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Establish a dedicated and expanded counter-disinformation cell focusing solely on real-time debunking of Russia's fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" and its new, terror-promoting and dehumanizing rhetoric, AND its disingenuous "peace offers." This cell must be capable of rapid analysis of manipulated media (e.g., staged statistics, reframed legitimate news, alleged terror attacks) and linguistic analysis of extremist narratives to inform immediate counter-narratives. Special emphasis on exposing the manipulation of foreign leaders' statements and the strategic deception inherent in simultaneous "peace" and aggression. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
3. URGENT/CRITICAL: Conduct rapid, thorough BDA of any new claimed RUF successes or terror attacks, including the claimed destruction of UAF drone control points. Verification of these events is paramount for operational assessment and counter-IO. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT, FORENSIC).
4. HIGH: Intensify HUMINT and SIGINT collection regarding RUF's tactical drone operations (e.g., "Kub" assets) to understand their C2, capabilities, and vulnerabilities. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, SIGINT, TECHINT).

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain highest AD alert posture across all Oblasts, especially Kyiv, Poltava, Kryvyi Rih, Sumy, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Kremenets, and Kharkiv, against persistent multi-directional mass UAV and KAB threats. Prioritize the deployment of mobile AD units to vulnerable areas and critical infrastructure.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Accelerate the integration and deployment of advanced counter-UAV and EW systems, particularly those effective against loitering munitions and large "Shahed" waves, to frontline units and critical infrastructure defense.
3. URGENT: Reinforce passive air defense measures and provide updated force protection guidance for civilian populations and first responders in areas subject to frequent UAV/KAB attacks. Develop specific protocols for identifying and responding to potential terror tactics.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain a robust defensive posture and combat readiness across all Eastern Front axes, including Zaporizhzhia and Kupyansk, and reinforce positions in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. Prepare for potential MDCOA ground offensive in the North towards Kyiv.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Prepare and position flexible strategic reserves for rapid deployment to the Sumy/Chernihiv axis in case of a major RUF ground offensive. Expedite engineering and fortification efforts in these northern border regions.
3. ONGOING: Continue to inflict maximum personnel and equipment losses on RUF through effective defensive operations, counter-battery fire, and precision strikes, leveraging intelligence from drone operations.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an unprecedented, globally coordinated information campaign to expose and directly counter Russia's new, more audacious fabrications of the "Iran-Israel crisis," including the staged statistics and reframed legitimate news, especially the manipulation of foreign leaders' statements. Emphasize the direct link between this destabilization and Russia's military objectives in Ukraine. Simultaneously, forcefully reject and expose the disingenuous nature of Russia's "peace offers" as a strategic deception aimed at providing cover for military aggression or setting conditions for future escalations.
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Develop and widely disseminate robust counter-narratives to Russia's escalating dehumanizing rhetoric (e.g., "Kryvyi Rih will not be," promotion of terror tactics), highlighting its genocidal implications and the hypocrisy of the accuser. Engage international human rights organizations and religious leaders to condemn such language and warn of potential atrocities. Explicitly counter claims of "body transfers" by demanding verifiable, transparent procedures if genuine.
3. URGENT: Engage international partners to re-focus attention and aid specifically on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, explicitly countering any narrative that shifts focus to fabricated crises. Proactively address and seek to mitigate the impact of internal RUF IO (e.g., fake MVS warnings, corruption claims against UAF).
4. ONGOING: Continue to document and disseminate evidence of RUF war crimes and internal issues (e.g., need for unit-level fundraising, elite discontent, and signs of audience fatigue among propagandists) to maintain international pressure and discredit RUF's narratives. Highlight UAF's successes in counter-drone innovation and effective defensive actions to project strength and resilience.

END OF REPORT.