Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 202744Z JUN 25 CLASSIFICATION: SECRET // NOFORN REPORTING UNIT: G2 ANALYST, UAF HIGH COMMAND

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Northern Front (Sumy Oblast):
  • RUF tactical aviation launched KABs towards Sumy Oblast, with new explosions reported in Sumy city. Repeat launches confirmed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Previous reports of Lancet strike on multi-story building in Sumy stand.
• Eastern Front (Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk Border): RUF tactical aviation launched KABs towards the border of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Repeat launches confirmed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Southern Front (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts): New groups of enemy strike UAVs detected entering Zaporizhzhia and southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from Temporarily Occupied Territories (TOT). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Central Front (Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv Cities): Air Force issued general warnings for these cities, indicating potential for continued or new UAV/KAB threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• General UAV/KAB Threat: Persistent multi-directional air attacks by RUF continue to be the primary kinetic activity, affecting multiple Oblasts.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• No new significant reports affecting battlefield conditions.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
  • Air Defense (AD): Continues active real-time threat dissemination and engagement. Warnings issued for Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, and Kharkiv. AD is tracking new UAV groups towards Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Forces: UAF continues defensive operations. Acknowledged challenges from Russian drone tactics, as per STERNENKO's commentary on Putin's disregard for Russian casualties from Ukrainian drones.
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Air Operations: RUF continues sustained KAB strikes on Sumy and the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk border region. New multi-directional UAV attacks observed entering Zaporizhzhia and southeastern Dnipropetrovsk from TOT. The "НгП раZVедка" channel continues its highly aggressive messaging regarding Kryvyi Rih. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Forces: A video from Colonelcassad with text overlays "Position of VSU" and "44th Army Corps" and "Grouping of troops SEVER" suggests continued drone-based ISR and targeting activities, potentially indicating offensive preparations or ongoing engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE on RUF capability for ISR; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on specific BDA).
  • Information Operations (CRITICAL ESCALATION CONTINUED):
    • Extreme Diversion & Amplification of Fabricated Crisis: RUF channels (Операция Z, ASTRA, TASS, РБК-Україна) continue to heavily push the fabricated "Iran-Israel conflict." They are now directly quoting and recontextualizing statements from foreign leaders (e.g., Trump expressing concern about Iran proxies, difficulty stopping Israeli strikes, and complaining about NATO spending/US defense budget) to make the crisis appear more legitimate and to sow discord among Western allies. The narrative about Trump's hesitation to enter war due to fear of "another Libya" is designed to portray US weakness and indecision. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Propaganda & Morale: "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" acknowledges declining channel activity, suggesting a need to re-energize its audience ("Friends, we see how many of you are tired. Channel activity has decreased... interest in what is happening seems to be fading"). This indicates potential fatigue in the Russian information space, prompting RUF propagandists to bolster morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Dehumanization & Extremism: "НгП раZVедка" continues its ominous threats against Kryvyi Rih ("Працюет спрямувальник криворигов" - implies something is working to straighten out Kryvyi Rih, referencing the previous genocidal threat). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Internal Consolidation: "Два майора" released the fourth part of a tetralogy "At the Edge of the Abyss," suggesting a narrative aimed at unifying and justifying the current conflict for a domestic audience, emphasizing the existential stakes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Assess the specific impact and intent of repeated KAB strikes on Sumy and the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk border area. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, OSINT).
• HIGH: Determine the trajectory, specific targets, and potential intent of new UAV waves entering Zaporizhzhia and southeastern Dnipropetrovsk. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, IMINT).
• MEDIUM: Analyze the Colonelcassad video to identify specific RUF units or tactics, and verify BDA claims if any are made in full video. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, IMINT).
• MEDIUM: Monitor RUF propaganda channels for further signs of audience fatigue or shifts in messaging to understand internal morale and potential vulnerabilities. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Air/Missile/UAV Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate sustained capacity for KAB and multi-directional UAV strikes, extending threats to new areas (southeastern Dnipropetrovsk). Their tactical ISR and precision strike capabilities using drones remain evident. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Ground Capabilities: RUF ground forces continue to conduct tactical engagements, utilizing drone support for ISR and targeting. The continued publishing of drone footage by RUF channels suggests confidence in their local air superiority in certain sectors. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Information Warfare Capabilities: RUF's IO remains highly sophisticated and adaptive, increasingly integrating and manipulating real statements from foreign leaders to bolster false narratives and sow discord. The acknowledgment of audience fatigue by some propagandists suggests a push for more compelling or frequent content to maintain domestic engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Intentions: RUF intends to:
  • Sustain multi-axis kinetic pressure with UAVs and KABs to degrade UAF defenses, infrastructure, and morale, particularly in Sumy and the Southern/Eastern axes.
  • CRITICAL: Escalate and refine its global information warfare campaign by more skillfully leveraging external political statements to legitimize the fabricated "Iran-Israel conflict" and to sow division among Western allies regarding support for Ukraine.
  • Maintain domestic control and morale through ideological narratives (e.g., "At the Edge of the Abyss") and by pushing through signs of fatigue among its audience.
  • Continue psychological warfare against Ukrainian civilians and military through threats (Kryvyi Rih) and the promotion of terror tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF:
  • Kinetic Adaptation: Continued, sustained KAB attacks and new UAV waves on the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk axes indicate adaptive targeting to stress UAF AD and exploit perceived vulnerabilities.
  • IO Adaptation: More sophisticated use of external political commentary (Trump's statements) to add credibility to fabricated narratives and undermine Western unity. Attempts to address audience fatigue are also an adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: Continued real-time AD alerts and effective communication of threats demonstrate adaptive responsiveness to RUF air attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: Continued high-intensity air operations suggest sustained, though potentially strained, logistics. The need for propagandists to address audience fatigue may indirectly affect fundraising efforts or public willingness to support the war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: The continued need for AD resources remains critical given persistent multi-directional aerial threats.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: RUF C2 shows continued coordination in its multi-directional air campaign and its highly synchronized and escalating global information warfare campaign. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: UAF C2 demonstrates effective real-time threat detection and dissemination (Air Force alerts), enabling rapid public response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Detailed analysis of RUF's drone footage to identify any new operational patterns, equipment, or C2 elements that could inform UAF counter-drone strategies. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: TECHINT, OSINT).
• HIGH: Monitor RUF internal communications and social media for indicators of C2 issues or morale problems arising from prolonged conflict or personnel losses. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Defensive Posture: UAF maintains an active defensive posture against RUF UAVs and KABs across multiple regions, now including new UAV threats to Zaporizhzhia and southeastern Dnipropetrovsk. AD is actively engaging targets and issuing warnings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Resilience: UAF continues to demonstrate resilience in the face of persistent air attacks and sophisticated information warfare. The focus on documented Russian casualties ("putinu немає діла до російських солдатів чи їхніх ніг, розірваних українськими дронами") aims to undermine RUF morale and counter false narratives of Russian invincibility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes: UAF Air Force continues real-time threat detection and public alerts, contributing to civilian safety. AD is tracking and engaging incoming threats.
• Setbacks: Continued KAB strikes on Sumy and the Eastern/Southern axes, along with new UAV penetrations into Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk, demonstrate the ongoing aerial threat and strain on UAF AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense/Counter-UAV: Continued and urgent requirement for AD systems and interceptors, particularly for countering multi-directional UAV and KAB threats that target widely dispersed areas.
• Counter-IO: Sustained resources are required for developing and disseminating rapid, comprehensive counter-narratives to combat Russia's increasingly sophisticated and aggressive information warfare, especially its integration of legitimate foreign statements into fabricated crises.

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Assess the specific types and capabilities of new UAV groups entering Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk to inform AD tactics. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: TECHINT, SIGINT).
• MEDIUM: Evaluate the effectiveness of UAF's own counter-propaganda efforts against RUF's escalating narratives. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian:
  • Extreme Diversion (CRITICAL ESCALATION CONTINUED): RUF continues to actively propagate the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis," now demonstrating advanced techniques by integrating selective, decontextualized quotes from foreign leaders (Trump's statements on Iran, NATO spending, and reluctance to enter war) to create an illusion of reality and sow discord within the international community. This aims to legitimize the crisis and divert attention from Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Dehumanization & Extremism: "НгП раZVедка" continues ominous threats against Kryvyi Rih, reinforcing previous genocidal rhetoric. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Domestic Control & Morale: RUF channels like "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" acknowledge declining audience activity, suggesting efforts to reinvigorate public interest and commitment. "Два майора" uses a multi-part series to maintain a narrative of existential struggle, justifying the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Anti-Western/Anti-Ukraine Messaging: Quotations of Trump's critiques of NATO and US defense spending, along with his perceived hesitation to engage in conflicts, are used to portray Western disunity and weakness, undermining confidence in support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ukrainian:
  • Transparency & Call for Action: UAF leadership (Air Force) continues real-time reporting on RUF UAV and KAB threats, maintaining public awareness and trust.
  • Counter-Narrative: STERNENKO's commentary on Putin's disregard for Russian soldiers' lives directly counters RUF's propaganda of care for its military, leveraging documented casualties to highlight the human cost for Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Public morale remains under pressure from persistent UAV and KAB attacks. The explicit threats against cities contribute to anxiety, but continuous, transparent communication from UAF helps manage public response.
• Russian: Acknowledged "fatigue" among Russian audiences indicates potential challenges in maintaining long-term public support for the war, necessitating intensified propaganda efforts. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Diversion Effectiveness (CRITICAL): RUF's continued and increasingly sophisticated fabrication of the "Iran-Israel crisis," now with selective use of legitimate foreign statements, continues to effectively divert international attention and potentially resources from Ukraine. The aim remains to create an alternative geopolitical crisis that forces Western powers to shift focus and potentially resources, influencing policy decisions (as seen with the EU oil cap delay in the previous report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Impact of Disinformation: RUF's attempts to portray disunity within Western leadership (e.g., Trump's statements) are aimed at undermining international unity and support for Ukraine, making it harder to maintain a cohesive front against Russian aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Monitor international media and diplomatic responses to Russia's new, more detailed fabrications of the "Iran-Israel crisis" and its increasingly aggressive and terror-promoting narratives to assess their real-world impact on policy and public opinion. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
• HIGH: Analyze the reach and impact of RUF's propaganda that attempts to sow discord within NATO/EU by recontextualizing statements from foreign leaders. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained Multi-Directional UAV and KAB Attacks: RUF will continue to launch UAVs (including Lancets) and KABs against multiple Ukrainian Oblasts (Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Poltava, Kyiv), aiming to stretch UAF air defenses, degrade infrastructure, and conduct reconnaissance, while also attempting to attrit UAF military assets and terrorize the civilian population.
• Intensified Ground Pressure (Eastern Front & Sumy): RUF will maintain severe ground pressure on Eastern axes (Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar) and continue probing assaults or limited offensives on the Sumy border areas, supported by continued air and missile strikes.
• Escalated and More Audacious Information Warfare (Targeting Western Unity): RUF will further escalate its information warfare by creating new, even more explicit and outrageous fabrications related to the "Iran-Israel crisis," providing increasingly "detailed" but false evidence and leveraging quotes from international figures (e.g., Trump) to deepen divisions and foster isolationism within Western alliances regarding Ukraine. Concurrently, expect a ramp-up in highly dehumanizing rhetoric against Ukrainians and aggressive anti-Western narratives.
• Internal Control with Renewed Propaganda Efforts: The Kremlin will maintain tight internal control, while intensifying propaganda efforts to counter audience fatigue and reinforce the justification for the conflict among its domestic population.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Northern Ground Offensive with Cyber-Enabled Terror & Global Deception: RUF initiates a large-scale ground offensive on the Sumy/Chernihiv axis towards Kyiv, aiming for a significant breakthrough, supported by simultaneous, overwhelming multi-domain attacks (ballistic missiles, KABs, mass UAVs, potential cyberattacks targeting UAF C2 and critical infrastructure). This offensive would be accompanied by coordinated false-flag terror attacks within Ukraine or a neighboring state, falsely attributed to internal Ukrainian dissent or "terrorist groups," amplified by RUF IO channels with fabricated "evidence" (similar to the scooter claim). Concurrently, RUF will launch a massive, globally coordinated cyberattack against critical infrastructure in a NATO or EU member state, falsely attributing it to "Iranian" or "Israeli" actors within the manufactured Middle East crisis. This aims to paralyze key Western response mechanisms, divert all attention and resources to the fabricated "crisis" and terror events, and force a Western response that directly benefits Russia's geopolitical objectives in Ukraine, allowing for rapid gains on the battlefield. The intensified dehumanizing rhetoric and explicit comparisons to totalitarian propaganda would be used to justify extreme violence and atrocities during this offensive, particularly against civilians and POWs, while simultaneously discrediting any counter-narratives from Ukraine or its allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 6-12 hours):
  • RUF: Expect continued, possibly increasing, UAV and KAB activity across all currently threatened Oblasts (Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Poltava, Kyiv). Further amplification of the fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" with new, more audacious fabricated "evidence," particularly drawing on international political figures. Continued dehumanizing rhetoric and explicit threats/claims of terror acts.
  • UAF Decision Point: Maintain highest AD readiness, especially in Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, and other major urban centers under UAV/KAB threat. Intensify ISR on Northern (Sumy/Chernihiv) and Eastern (Zaporizhzhia) axes for early warning of any ground force buildup. Immediately and publicly debunk new RUF IO fabrications, particularly the recontextualized quotes from foreign leaders, and dehumanizing rhetoric, engaging international partners to amplify these counter-narratives. Prepare for potential mass casualty events due to civilian targeting and potential terror attacks.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: Potential for another large-scale missile strike. Continued high-intensity ground and air pressure. RUF IO will seek new "developments" in its fabricated Middle East narrative, potentially linked to false-flag events or further attempts to undermine Western unity by exploiting political divisions. Intensified efforts to secure and publicize non-Western partnerships.
  • UAF Decision Point: Prioritize ISR on all RUF airfields and ground force concentrations for early warning of major offensive operations, especially in the north. Engage international partners to directly and unequivocally counter the extreme RUF IO, providing irrefutable evidence of the deception and its strategic implications. Reinforce defensive positions, particularly in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, and prepare flexible reserves, especially for the Kyiv axis. Actively promote successful UAF actions and resilience stories to counter RUF propaganda. Enhance internal security and counter-intelligence efforts to identify and neutralize potential terror cells or saboteurs following RUF's public promotion of such tactics.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source ISR on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Belarus border areas for any indicators of RUF ground force buildup, logistics, or command post activity that could precede a major offensive. Focus on patterns of UAV use, especially Lancet, in these areas. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: All-source intelligence, GEOINT, IMINT, SIGINT).
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Establish a dedicated and expanded counter-disinformation cell focusing solely on real-time debunking of Russia's fabricated "Iran-Israel crisis" and its new, terror-promoting and dehumanizing rhetoric. This cell must be capable of rapid analysis of manipulated media (e.g., staged statistics, reframed legitimate news, alleged terror attacks) and linguistic analysis of extremist narratives to inform immediate counter-narratives. Special emphasis on exposing the manipulation of foreign leaders' statements. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT).
3. URGENT/CRITICAL: Conduct rapid, thorough BDA of any new claimed RUF successes or terror attacks. Verification of these events is paramount for operational assessment and counter-IO. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT, FORENSIC).
4. HIGH: Intensify HUMINT and SIGINT collection regarding RUF's tactical drone operations (e.g., "Rubikon" assets, "Molniya" strikes, Colonelcassad's footage) to understand their C2, capabilities, and vulnerabilities. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, SIGINT, TECHINT).

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain highest AD alert posture across all Oblasts, especially Kyiv, Poltava, Kryvyi Rih, Sumy, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv, against persistent multi-directional UAV (including Lancet) and KAB threats. Prioritize the deployment of mobile AD units to vulnerable areas and critical infrastructure.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Accelerate the integration and deployment of advanced counter-UAV and EW systems, particularly those effective against loitering munitions like Lancet, to frontline units and critical infrastructure defense.
3. URGENT: Reinforce passive air defense measures and provide updated force protection guidance for civilian populations and first responders in areas subject to frequent UAV/KAB attacks. Develop specific protocols for identifying and responding to potential terror tactics.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain a robust defensive posture and combat readiness across all Eastern Front axes, including Zaporizhzhia, and reinforce positions in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. Prepare for potential MDCOA ground offensive in the North towards Kyiv.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Prepare and position flexible strategic reserves for rapid deployment to the Sumy/Chernihiv axis in case of a major RUF ground offensive. Expedite engineering and fortification efforts in these northern border regions.
3. ONGOING: Continue to inflict maximum personnel and equipment losses on RUF through effective defensive operations, counter-battery fire, and precision strikes, leveraging intelligence from drone operations.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an unprecedented, globally coordinated information campaign to expose and directly counter Russia's new, more audacious fabrications of the "Iran-Israel crisis," including the staged statistics and reframed legitimate news, especially the manipulation of foreign leaders' statements. Emphasize the direct link between this destabilization and Russia's military objectives in Ukraine.
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Develop and widely disseminate robust counter-narratives to Russia's escalating dehumanizing rhetoric (e.g., "Kryvyi Rih will not be," promotion of terror tactics), highlighting its genocidal implications and the hypocrisy of the accuser. Engage international human rights organizations and religious leaders to condemn such language and warn of potential atrocities.
3. URGENT: Engage international partners to re-focus attention and aid specifically on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, explicitly countering any narrative that shifts focus to fabricated crises. Proactively address and seek to mitigate the impact of internal RUF IO (e.g., fake MVS warnings, corruption claims against UAF).
4. ONGOING: Continue to document and disseminate evidence of RUF war crimes and internal issues (e.g., need for unit-level fundraising, elite discontent, and signs of audience fatigue among propagandists) to maintain international pressure and discredit RUF's narratives. Highlight UAF's successes in counter-drone innovation and effective defensive actions to project strength and resilience.

END OF REPORT.