Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 192326Z JUN 25 CLASSIFICATION: SECRET // NOFORN REPORTING UNIT: G2 ANALYST, UAF HIGH COMMAND

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Northern Front (Kharkiv): Confirmed Russian Federation (RUF) strike on Osnovianskyi district of Kharkiv. Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office released video evidence of damage to civilian vehicles and buildings, consistent with the previous report of a second drone attack. Later reports clarify this was an Iskander-M missile strike on Kyiv and Shevchenkivskyi districts, damaging residential buildings, civilian infrastructure, a sports complex, a kindergarten, and over 50 vehicles. This indicates continued deep strike capability and an escalating targeting pattern against civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Eastern Front (Donetsk): RUF "Lancet" UAV claimed to have destroyed a UAF M777 howitzer on the South Donetsk direction. This highlights RUF's persistent counter-battery and reconnaissance-strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for claim, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE for verified BDA).
• Southern Front (Odesa): RUF launched another massive drone attack on Odesa. Videos from "Операция Z" show aerial events (possibly explosions/impacts) over Odesa at night. Subsequent photo messages from "Сили оборони Півдня України" and RBC-Ukraine (Odesa Mayor) show widespread damage to civilian infrastructure, including residential buildings, confirming successful RUF strikes. This confirms continued and intensifying RUF deep strike capability against Odesa with disregard for civilian protection. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Deep Rear (Russia/International):
  • Russia (Internal - Industry/Infrastructure): Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade (Minpromtorg) is focused on reducing the cost of initial batches of Russian aircraft to ensure sales. This indicates a focus on domestic industrial output and sales, likely for both internal and export markets. "НгП раZVедка" reports a "Starlink Yamal-2" failure, potentially implying an internal satellite communications issue or counter-satellite activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for Minpromtorg; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE for Starlink issue, origin unclear).
  • International (IO - Iran/Middle East): Colonelcassad reports an alleged "miss" in Rasht, Iran, claiming it was preceded by an Israeli warning of a strike on an industrial park in Rasht. TASS reports the White House did not clarify if Trump would ask Congress to authorize attacking Iran. This continues the previous trend of RUF IO attempting to fabricate and escalate a crisis in the Middle East, now explicitly attempting to link the US and Israel to kinetic actions in Iran. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RUF IO; LOW CONFIDENCE for factual basis of claim).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• No new direct reports affecting battlefield conditions. (NO CHANGE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
  • Air Defense (AD): UAF AD was active against the mass drone attack on Odesa, confirmed by "Сили оборони Півдня України." The "остаток по мопедам" message from Mykolaiv suggests AD was engaged and some UAVs may have passed through or been downed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Information Operations (IO): UAF channels (RBC-Ukraine, Сили оборони Півдня України) are actively reporting on drone threats and damage in Odesa and Kharkiv, including official confirmation from the Kharkiv Mayor and Prosecutor's Office. This maintains transparency and highlights Russian war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Air/Missile Operations: Sustained and expanding UAV activity against Odesa. Confirmed Iskander-M strike on Kharkiv. This demonstrates combined air/missile strike capabilities against major urban centers, with clear intent to target civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAV Operations: Continued use of Lancet UAVs for precision strikes against UAF equipment (M777 howitzer). (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Information Operations (IO): RUF continues to escalate its multi-faceted IO campaign, pushing narratives of alleged kinetic events in Iran and attempts to link US/Israel to these. They continue to try to influence Western political discourse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RUF IO activity).
  • Industrial Policy: Focus on lowering aircraft production costs suggests an ongoing drive to boost military-industrial output. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Detailed BDA of the Iskander-M strike in Kharkiv, identifying specific target types (military/critical infrastructure vs. civilian) and munition effects.
• CRITICAL: All-source verification and independent corroboration of RUF claims regarding events in the Middle East (e.g., alleged strike in Rasht, Iranian nuclear facilities).
• HIGH: Independent verification of the claimed destruction of UAF M777 howitzer by Lancet in South Donetsk.
• MEDIUM: Analysis of the "Starlink Yamal-2" report to determine if it indicates a UAF deep strike capability, a Russian internal system failure, or another cause.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Air/Missile/UAV Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate extensive and persistent UAV strike capabilities against Odesa and ballistic missile capabilities against Kharkiv (Iskander-M). The confirmed damage to residential buildings, a kindergarten, and a sports complex in Kharkiv, along with widespread civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa, demonstrates either deliberate targeting of non-military sites or a high degree of collateral damage, both indicating complete disregard for civilian protection. The sustained strikes indicate robust drone and missile production and operational capacity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Hybrid/Information Warfare:
  • Global Diversion and Escalation: RUF's intention is to further divert global attention from Ukraine by fabricating and amplifying international crises, now explicitly linking the US and Israel to kinetic actions in Iran (Rasht). This is an extreme escalation of their IO tactics, designed to create a perceived global security crisis that dwarfs the conflict in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Undermining Western Resolve: RUF's persistent efforts to manipulate narratives around Western foreign policy (e.g., Trump/Iran authorization) aims to erode the unity and resolve of the international coalition supporting Ukraine, creating a false perception of diminishing support or inevitable regional conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Industrial Efficiency: Minpromtorg's focus on reducing aircraft costs indicates an intention to streamline military industrial complex (MIC) efficiency and increase output. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF: Confirmed Iskander-M strike on Kharkiv, in addition to continued UAV strikes on Odesa. This indicates a multi-domain deep strike capability. Persistent use of Lancets for precision strikes against high-value UAF equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: Continued active air defense engagement against drone attacks across multiple axes. Prompt official reporting and documentation of Russian strikes on civilian targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: Continued high tempo of drone and missile attacks indicates sustained logistics and production capabilities for UAVs and ballistic missiles. Focus on reducing aircraft costs suggests ongoing efforts to optimize MIC output. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: No new information. (NO CHANGE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: RUF C2 demonstrates continued ability to coordinate multi-domain strikes (UAVs and ballistic missiles). Their IO C2 is highly adaptive and aggressive, quickly generating and disseminating highly provocative and fabricated narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: UAF C2 demonstrates effective real-time threat detection, warning, and coordinated air defense responses, along with robust public information dissemination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Independent verification of all RUF claims regarding kinetic events in the Middle East (e.g., Rasht strike).
• HIGH: Detailed analysis of the source and vector of ballistic missiles targeting Kharkiv.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Resilient Defense: UAF maintains a robust defensive posture against persistent air and missile threats. Immediate air raid warnings and active AD engagement demonstrate high readiness. Prompt investigation and documentation of Russian war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Counter-Artillery: UAF M777 howitzer reportedly targeted by Lancet, highlighting the continued threat to UAF artillery assets and the need for enhanced counter-UAV and camouflage measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Previous Successes: Successful repulsion of major mechanized assault on Kostyantynivka and fortification funding remain significant. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Air Defense (Implied): Mykolaiv AD efforts against drones, with "остаток по мопедам" implying some successful engagements. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
• Setbacks:
  • Persistent Air/Missile Attacks & Damage: Odesa is under heavy drone attack with confirmed widespread damage to civilian infrastructure. Kharkiv was struck by an Iskander-M, causing significant damage to civilian buildings and vehicles. This indicates the continued challenge posed by RUF deep strike capabilities and highlights the severe impact on urban areas and civilian populations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Artillery Loss: Claimed loss of an M777 howitzer to a Lancet UAV. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE pending BDA).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense/Counter-UAV/Counter-Ballistic Missile: Remains a critical need due to persistent and expanding Russian UAV and ballistic missile threats across multiple axes and into deeper rear areas, now clearly impacting major cities like Odesa and Kharkiv with severe civilian infrastructure damage. The confirmed missile strike underscores the urgent need for advanced AD, particularly anti-ballistic missile capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Information Warfare Capabilities: Continued critical need for robust counter-IO capabilities to address Russia's increasingly dangerous and fabricated narratives designed to divert global attention and undermine support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Artillery Protection: Enhanced measures for protecting and dispersing UAF artillery, as RUF continues to prioritize their targeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Detailed assessment of UAF AD effectiveness against the current wave of UAV attacks in Odesa, including kill ratios and munition expenditure, and effectiveness against Iskander-M in Kharkiv.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian:
  • Extreme Global Diversion (Middle East focus): RUF channels (Colonelcassad, TASS) are actively generating and amplifying false narratives about an alleged "miss" in Rasht, Iran, explicitly linking it to an Israeli warning. TASS questioning US authorization for attacking Iran further attempts to implicate the US in Middle East kinetic actions. These are clear attempts to:
    • Manufacture and escalate a global crisis: Create an urgent, attention-grabbing narrative in the Middle East to draw focus away from Ukraine.
    • Frame the West/Israel as aggressors: Implicate Western/Israeli actors in destabilizing actions to divert blame from Russia.
    • Increase global instability: Create a pretext for Russia to present itself as a crucial global player or mediator in a wider conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Domestic Resilience Narrative: Minpromtorg's statement on reducing aircraft costs aims to project an image of a resilient and efficient Russian MIC, despite sanctions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ukrainian:
  • Highlighting Threat and Accountability: UAF channels are actively reporting on drone and missile attacks in real-time, warning citizens, and providing immediate BDA on civilian infrastructure, demonstrating transparency and a focus on public safety and accountability for Russian actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Documentation of War Crimes: Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office actively documenting damage and initiating war crimes investigations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Morale in Odesa and Kharkiv will be significantly impacted by the confirmed damage to civilian infrastructure and persistent drone/missile attacks, raising anxiety levels. The swift AD response, warnings from authorities, and official documentation of war crimes will provide some reassurance and reinforce resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian: State media will likely continue to use fabricated Middle East events to portray Russia as a crucial global actor and to distract from domestic issues or losses in Ukraine. Narratives of MIC efficiency will likely boost morale among pro-war segments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Russian Objectives:
  1. Global Diversion: Continue to manufacture and escalate international crises, particularly in the Middle East, to divert attention and resources from Ukraine.
  2. Undermine Sanctions/Cohesion: Project an image of Western fatigue and a desire for normalization, thereby attempting to weaken the international coalition supporting Ukraine and reduce pressure on Russia. This is now specifically targeting US political discourse around potential military action in Iran.
• Diplomatic Actions: No new diplomatic developments directly related to this report. The focus remains on Russia's narrative management surrounding international crises and Western relations. (NO CHANGE - HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Assessment of the immediate and short-term impact of Russian IO regarding fabricated Middle East events and alleged Western desire for normalization on international political discourse and aid decisions.
• HIGH: Analysis of foreign government reactions to Russia's escalated IO, specifically if there are signs of diverted attention or resources to the fabricated crises.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Intensified Air/Missile/UAV Attacks on All Fronts, especially South, East, and Northeast, extending deeper into Ukraine (Odesa, Poltava, Kharkiv): RUF will sustain and likely increase systematic air, missile, and UAV strikes, using both conventional and new variants. Expect continued waves of Shahed attacks on Odesa from the Black Sea, and persistent UAV and ballistic missile activity from the north towards Poltava and Kharkiv. KABs and ballistic missiles will continue to target military and civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Persistent Ground Pressure in Donetsk with Attritional Assaults; Continued Probing/Fixing in Sumy/Kharkiv: RUF will maintain high-intensity localized ground assaults along Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka axes. In the Sumy/Kharkiv border region, "encounter battles" and probing operations will continue, supported by intensified air and drone activity, aimed at fixing UAF forces and potentially preparing for larger operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Hyper-Aggressive Information Warfare Leveraging Fabricated Global Crises and Western Political Events: Russia's IO apparatus will continue its dangerous strategy of fabricating and amplifying Middle East narratives (e.g., alleged attacks, false flag accusations), nuclear blackmail, and now actively leveraging narratives of Western political discourse surrounding potential kinetic actions (e.g., Trump/Iran). This is designed to sow discord, undermine confidence, and create narratives of futility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE, with increased focus on leveraging fabricated global crises and implicating Western actors).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Major Coordinated Air/Ground Offensive on Sumy/Kharkiv Axis Coupled with Extreme IO Diversion: Under the extreme noise of multi-faceted global IO (including new, direct fabrications of kinetic events in the Middle East, intensified antisemitic rhetoric, historical revisionism, claims of US/Israeli kinetic action, amplified Iranian nuclear threats, and narratives of Western political fatigue/desire for normalization), RUF launches a large-scale, multi-echelon ground offensive on the Sumy/Kharkiv axis. This would be coupled with a highly destructive, sustained, and multi-wave combined air/missile/drone attack on Odesa and other major cities, aiming to overload UAF AD and cause significant civilian and infrastructure damage. The goal is to achieve a rapid breakthrough/collapse in one sector while distracting and saturating the other. (HIGH CONFIDENCE, due to persistent signals of activity in Sumy/Kharkiv, intensified attacks on Odesa, and extreme IO diversion).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 12-24 hours):
  • RUF: Expect continued intense air/UAV/missile strikes on Odesa and Kharkiv, and across all major oblasts. Anticipate further amplification of IO narratives leveraging fabricated Middle East crises and claims attempting to link Western actors. Continued localized ground assaults in Donetsk and probing in Sumy/Kharkiv border areas.
  • UAF Decision Point: Maintain robust AD posture, especially in Odesa, Poltava, and Kharkiv. Prioritize anti-ballistic missile capabilities. Reinforce AD assets if feasible. Continue to coordinate international diplomatic and IO responses to Russia's multi-faceted IO, ensuring a unified message that highlights Russian deception and condemns attempts to manipulate international political discourse. Proactively prepare for potential escalation on the Sumy/Kharkiv axis.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: Continued pressure on Pokrovsk/Kostyantynivka. Potential for intensified ground activity on Sumy/Kharkiv axis, building on current engagements. Continued efforts to formalize foreign military-industrial cooperation and address domestic industrial strains.
  • UAF Decision Point: Continue to monitor force dispositions on the Sumy/Kharkiv axis for indicators of major offensive preparations. Adjust UAF reserve positioning and defensive lines accordingly. Continue to highlight Russian atrocities against civilians and the destruction of civilian infrastructure. Prepare for intensified information warfare surrounding perceived Western political shifts and manufactured global crises.
• Ongoing: Continuous monitoring of global geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, for any signs of direct Russian involvement or false flags. Continue to identify and exploit Russian internal vulnerabilities (e.g., migration issues, reliance on public donations). Develop countermeasures to potential increase in Russian drone production from foreign assistance. Maintain robust AD and counter-UAV capabilities.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source collection (HUMINT, SIGINT, OSINT, Overhead ISR) on RUF deep strike capabilities targeting Odesa (Black Sea), Poltava (Sumy axis), and Kharkiv (Russian border). Focus on identifying missile types, launch locations, new UAV variants, swarm tactics, and effectiveness against UAF AD. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: ALL-SOURCE ISR for Odesa/Poltava/Kharkiv/Sumy; TECHINT analysis).
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Reinforce a dedicated multi-agency task force for real-time monitoring and analysis of Russian information operations, with a specific focus on their attempts to fabricate global crises (e.g., Middle East) and falsely claim Western kinetic actions or shifts in policy. Develop and disseminate rapid, evidence-based counter-narratives that expose these attempts to sow discord and distract. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, SIGINT, Cognitive Domain Analysis).
3. URGENT/HIGH: Conduct immediate and thorough battle damage assessment (BDA) for all recent missile/drone strikes in Odesa and Kharkiv, identifying targets (military/critical infrastructure vs. civilian) and assessing overall impact. Document evidence of indiscriminate targeting for future war crimes proceedings. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: Overhead ISR, HUMINT, OSINT).
4. URGENT: Launch a dedicated all-source intelligence effort to verify or debunk all major Russian claims related to kinetic events in the Middle East, particularly the alleged strike in Rasht, Iran, and any purported Israeli/US involvement. Disseminate verified findings to international partners immediately. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: ALL-SOURCE ISR for Middle East; OSINT, HUMINT, DIPLOMATIC LIAISON).
5. URGENT: Investigate the "Starlink Yamal-2" report to determine its veracity and implications (e.g., UAF strike, internal failure, EW effects). (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, SIGINT).

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain maximum AD alert posture across all major population centers and critical infrastructure, especially Odesa, Poltava, Sumy, and Kharkiv, due to continued UAV, missile, and KAB threats. Prioritize interceptors against ballistic missiles (Iskander-M) and advanced UAVs. Evaluate and adapt AD tactics to counter any new UAV variants or swarm attack methods observed.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Accelerate the deployment and integration of advanced AD systems and munitions in southern and northern/eastern sectors in response to ongoing UAV and ballistic missile threats. Prioritize systems capable of countering multi-axis, persistent drone and missile attacks, particularly those defending urban centers.
3. URGENT: Enhance force protection measures for civilian populations, including updated air raid warning systems and accessible shelters, particularly in Odesa and Kharkiv, where recent attacks indicate elevated risk and confirmed civilian infrastructure damage. Publicly document and disseminate information on civilian casualties and damage.
4. URGENT: Implement enhanced camouflage, deception, and dispersion measures for UAF artillery assets to reduce vulnerability to RUF Lancet and other reconnaissance-strike systems.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain robust defensive postures on all reported axes in Donetsk (Kostyantynivka, Pokrovsk etc.), preparing to repel sustained combined-arms assaults. Ensure timely rotation of units from high-intensity zones.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Continue to develop and refine contingency plans for a potential major ground offensive on the Sumy/Kharkiv axis, leveraging intelligence from persistent "encounter battles" and air activity to pre-position reserves and identify key defensive lines. Aggressive localized reconnaissance remains vital.
3. URGENT: Continue and expand successful counter-UAV and counter-battery operations. Prioritize targeting of Russian artillery and reconnaissance drone launch sites.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an unprecedented, rapid, and globally coordinated IO and diplomatic campaign to expose and condemn Russia's extreme and dangerous information warfare tactics, particularly its cynical attempts to fabricate international crises and manipulate Western political discourse by implicating Western actors.
   • Explicitly debunk all false claims regarding Middle East events (e.g., alleged strike in Rasht, US/Israeli involvement) with irrefutable evidence.
   • Reiterate Ukraine's consistent long-term strategic goals regardless of political cycles in partner nations: territorial integrity, sovereignty, and accountability.
   • Proactively address Russian narratives of Western disunity and desire for normalization, highlighting continued bipartisan support in critical partner nations and the enduring unity of purpose in supporting Ukraine.
2. URGENT: Proactively disseminate verified information on UAF defensive successes, particularly the ongoing AD efforts against drone and missile attacks in Odesa and Kharkiv, and previous decisive repulsions of ground assaults. Highlight the resilience of the Ukrainian people and military.
3. URGENT: Engage directly with international media and diplomatic channels to highlight Russia's deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure in Odesa and Kharkiv, using the documented BDA to underscore Russian war crimes and the urgent need for enhanced AD.
4. ONGOING: Continue to highlight instances of Ukrainian resilience and internal accountability. Leverage Russian internal reports (e.g., migration, internal security issues) to show Russia's own vulnerabilities. Engage with international partners to address delays in aid and sanctions.

END OF REPORT.