Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 192300Z JUN 25 CLASSIFICATION: SECRET // NOFORN REPORTING UNIT: G2 ANALYST, UAF HIGH COMMAND

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Northern Front (Kharkiv): New groups of UAVs confirmed inbound to Kharkiv from the north, and a second drone attack on Kharkiv's Novobavarskyi district reported. This indicates a sustained and expanding RUF deep strike capability on Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Eastern Front (Donetsk): No new information. Previous report indicated successful repulsion of a powerful RUF assault on Kostyantynivka. (NO CHANGE - HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Southern Front (Odesa): Civilian infrastructure damaged in Odesa after RUF drone attack, including residential buildings, university building, gas pipeline, and private vehicles. This confirms the destructive impact of RUF air operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Deep Rear (Russia/International):
  • Russia (Internal - Airspace/Politics):
    • Airspace Restrictions: Temporary restrictions implemented at Kaluga airport, suggesting potential drone activity or heightened security concerns within Russian airspace, possibly related to ongoing UAF deep strikes or internal incidents. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • IO - Western Relations: Russian state media (TASS via Rossotrudnichestvo head Primakov) reports Western society signals a need to restore ties with Russia. This is a clear RUF IO effort to project an image of diminishing Western resolve and desire for normalization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RUF IO).
  • International (IO - Iran/Middle East):
    • Iran Assassination Attempt (Unverified): Colonelcassad reports an alleged unsuccessful assassination attempt on Iranian Foreign Minister Arakchi several days ago, with circumstances undisclosed. This aligns with and further escalates the ongoing RUF IO campaign to fabricate and amplify a crisis in the Middle East. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RUF IO; LOW CONFIDENCE for factual basis of claim).
    • Weizmann Institute Damage (Fabricated): Colonelcassad disseminates video purportedly showing extensive damage at the Weizmann Institute, claiming significant destruction. This is likely a continuation of the RUF IO campaign to fabricate major kinetic events in the Middle East to divert global attention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RUF IO; LOW CONFIDENCE for factual basis of claim, given previous fabrications).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors:

• No new direct reports affecting battlefield conditions. (NO CHANGE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (UAF):
  • Air Defense: UAF Air Force continues to issue real-time warnings for UAVs inbound to Kharkiv. Zaporizhzhia OVA reports air raid all-clear, indicating active UAF AD response to previous threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Information Operations (IO): Ukrainian channels (RBC-Ukraine, Air Force of Ukraine) are actively reporting on drone threats and damage in Odesa and Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian Forces (RUF):
  • Air Operations: Sustained and expanding UAV activity against Odesa and Kharkiv. Second drone attack on Kharkiv confirms persistence. Damage in Odesa indicates successful strikes on civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Information Operations (IO): RUF continues to escalate its multi-faceted IO campaign, now pushing narratives of alleged assassination attempts in Iran and fabricated damage at the Weizmann Institute. They are also attempting to project a narrative of Western willingness to re-engage with Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for RUF IO activity).
  • Airspace Measures: Temporary restrictions at Kaluga airport (Russia) could indicate internal drone threats or heightened security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Detailed BDA of drone strikes in Odesa and Kharkiv, particularly identifying military/critical infrastructure targets vs. civilian and assessing the type of munitions used.
• CRITICAL: All-source verification and independent corroboration of RUF claims regarding events in the Middle East (e.g., Iranian FM assassination attempt, Weizmann Institute damage).
• HIGH: Assessment of drone attack vectors and launch locations for Kharkiv, determining if they originate from Russian territory, the Black Sea, or Belarus.
• MEDIUM: Analysis of the reasons behind temporary restrictions at Kaluga airport and any correlation with UAF long-range drone capabilities.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Air/Missile/UAV Capabilities: RUF continues to demonstrate extensive and persistent UAV strike capabilities, now expanding to regular multi-wave attacks on Kharkiv. The confirmed damage to civilian infrastructure in Odesa indicates either deliberate targeting of non-military sites or a high degree of collateral damage, demonstrating disregard for civilian protection. The repeated strikes indicate robust drone production and operational capacity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Hybrid/Information Warfare:
  • Global Diversion and Escalation: RUF's intention is to divert global attention from Ukraine by fabricating and amplifying international crises, now explicitly including alleged assassination attempts on senior Iranian officials and purported attacks on scientific institutions (Weizmann Institute). This is an extreme escalation of their IO tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Undermining Western Resolve: RUF's message about Western society desiring to restore ties with Russia aims to erode the unity and resolve of the international coalition supporting Ukraine, creating a false perception of an inevitable return to "business as usual." (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Domestic Control/Security: Temporary airspace restrictions in Kaluga might indicate RUF is responding to perceived internal threats or exercising heightened control. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• RUF: Confirmed new waves of UAVs targeting Kharkiv, in addition to ongoing strikes on Odesa and Poltava. Sustained use of UAVs for deep strikes, with confirmed impact on civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: Continued active air defense engagement against drone attacks across multiple axes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• RUF: Continued high tempo of drone attacks indicates sustained logistics and production capabilities for UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: No new information. (NO CHANGE).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• RUF: RUF C2 demonstrates continued ability to coordinate multi-axis UAV strikes (Odesa, Poltava, Kharkiv simultaneously). Their IO C2 is highly adaptive and aggressive, quickly generating and disseminating highly provocative and fabricated narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF: UAF C2 demonstrates effective real-time threat detection, warning, and coordinated air defense responses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2.5. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Independent verification of all RUF claims regarding kinetic events in the Middle East (e.g., Weizmann Institute BDA).
• HIGH: Detailed analysis of the source and vector of UAVs targeting Kharkiv.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Resilient Defense: UAF maintains a robust defensive posture against persistent air threats in southern, northern, and eastern Ukraine. Immediate air raid warnings and active AD engagement demonstrate high readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Proactive Threat Mitigation: Continuous monitoring and reporting of UAV movements across oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Previous Successes: Successful repulsion of major mechanized assault on Kostyantynivka and fortification funding remain significant. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Air Defense (Implied): Air raid all-clear for Zaporizhzhia suggests successful AD engagement or cessation of immediate threat. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
• Setbacks:
  • Persistent UAV Attacks & Damage: Odesa and Kharkiv are under heavy drone attack with confirmed damage to civilian infrastructure. This indicates the continued challenge posed by RUF drone capabilities and highlights the impact on urban areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense/Counter-UAV: Remains a critical need due to persistent and expanding Russian UAV threats across multiple axes and into deeper rear areas, now clearly impacting major cities like Odesa and Kharkiv. The confirmed damage underscores the need for enhanced AD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Information Warfare Capabilities: Continued critical need for robust counter-IO capabilities to address Russia's increasingly dangerous and fabricated narratives designed to divert global attention and undermine support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• HIGH: Detailed assessment of UAF AD effectiveness against the current wave of UAV attacks in Odesa and Kharkiv, including kill ratios and munition expenditure.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian:
  • Escalated Global Diversion: RUF channels (Colonelcassad) are actively generating and amplifying false narratives about an alleged assassination attempt on Iranian FM Arakchi and fabricated extensive damage at the Weizmann Institute. These are clear attempts to:
    • Manufacture a global crisis: Create an urgent, attention-grabbing narrative in the Middle East to draw focus away from Ukraine.
    • Frame the West/Israel as aggressors: Implicate Western/Israeli actors in destabilizing actions.
    • Justify potential Russian intervention/escalation: Create a pretext for Russia to present itself as a global player or mediator. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Undermining Western Resolve/Promoting Normalization: TASS reporting that "Western society" wants to restore ties with Russia aims to:
    • Project Russia's strength/resilience: Suggest that sanctions and isolation are failing.
    • Sow disunity among allies: Imply that Western nations are wavering in their support for Ukraine and eager to normalize relations.
    • Pressure Ukraine: Suggest that its international support is fragile and that a return to pre-war relations is inevitable. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Ukrainian:
  • Highlighting Threat and Accountability: UAF channels are actively reporting on drone attacks in real-time, warning citizens, and providing immediate BDA on civilian infrastructure, demonstrating transparency and a focus on public safety and accountability for Russian actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian: Morale in Odesa and Kharkiv will be significantly impacted by the confirmed damage to civilian infrastructure and persistent drone attacks, raising anxiety levels. The swift AD response and warnings from authorities will provide some reassurance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Russian: State media will likely use fabricated Middle East events to portray Russia as a crucial global actor and to distract from domestic issues or losses in Ukraine. Narratives of Western desire to restore ties will likely boost morale among pro-war segments and project an image of success despite international isolation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Russian Objectives:
  1. Global Diversion: Continue to manufacture and escalate international crises, particularly in the Middle East, to divert attention and resources from Ukraine.
  2. Undermine Sanctions/Cohesion: Project an image of Western fatigue and a desire for normalization, thereby attempting to weaken the international coalition supporting Ukraine and reduce pressure on Russia.
• Diplomatic Actions: No new diplomatic developments directly related to this report. The focus remains on Russia's narrative management surrounding international crises and Western relations. (NO CHANGE - HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4.4. Intelligence Gaps/Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL: Assessment of the immediate and short-term impact of Russian IO regarding fabricated Middle East events and alleged Western desire for normalization on international political discourse and aid decisions.
• HIGH: Analysis of foreign government reactions to Russia's escalated IO, specifically if there are signs of diverted attention or resources to the fabricated crises.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Intensified Air/Artillery/UAV/Ballistic Attacks on All Fronts, especially South, East, and Northeast, extending deeper into Ukraine (Odesa, Poltava, Kharkiv): RUF will sustain and likely increase systematic air, artillery, and UAV strikes, using both conventional and new variants. Expect continued waves of Shahed attacks on Odesa from the Black Sea, and persistent UAV activity from the north towards Poltava and Kharkiv. KABs and ballistic missiles will continue to target military and civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Persistent Ground Pressure in Donetsk with Attritional Assaults; Continued Probing/Fixing in Sumy/Kharkiv: RUF will maintain high-intensity localized ground assaults along Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka axes. In the Sumy/Kharkiv border region, "encounter battles" and probing operations will continue, supported by intensified air and drone activity, aimed at fixing UAF forces and potentially preparing for larger operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Hyper-Aggressive Information Warfare Leveraging Fabricated Global Crises and Western Political Events: Russia's IO apparatus will continue its dangerous strategy of fabricating and amplifying Middle East narratives (e.g., alleged assassinations, false flag attacks), nuclear blackmail, and now actively leveraging narratives of Western desire to restore ties with Russia. This is designed to sow discord, undermine confidence, and create narratives of futility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE, with increased focus on leveraging fabricated global crises).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Major Coordinated Air/Ground Offensive on Sumy/Kharkiv Axis Coupled with Extreme IO Diversion: Under the extreme noise of multi-faceted global IO (including new, direct fabrications of kinetic events in the Middle East, intensified antisemitic rhetoric, historical revisionism, claims of US/Israeli kinetic action, amplified Iranian nuclear threats, and narratives of Western political fatigue/desire for normalization), RUF launches a large-scale, multi-echelon ground offensive on the Sumy/Kharkiv axis. This would be coupled with a highly destructive, sustained, and multi-wave combined air/missile/drone attack on Odesa and other major cities, aiming to overload UAF AD and cause significant civilian and infrastructure damage. The goal is to achieve a rapid breakthrough/collapse in one sector while distracting and saturating the other. (HIGH CONFIDENCE, due to persistent signals of activity in Sumy/Kharkiv, intensified attacks on Odesa, and extreme IO diversion).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 12-24 hours):
  • RUF: Expect continued intense air/UAV strikes on Odesa and Kharkiv, and across all major oblasts. Anticipate further amplification of IO narratives leveraging fabricated Middle East crises and claims of Western desire for normalization. Continued localized ground assaults in Donetsk and probing in Sumy/Kharkiv border areas. Temporary airspace restrictions in Russia may become more widespread if UAF deep strikes continue.
  • UAF Decision Point: Maintain robust AD posture, especially in Odesa, Poltava, and Kharkiv. Reinforce AD assets if feasible. Continue to coordinate international diplomatic and IO responses to Russia's multi-faceted IO, ensuring a unified message that highlights Russian deception and condemns attempts to manipulate international political discourse. Proactively prepare for potential escalation on the Sumy/Kharkiv axis.
• Short-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • RUF: Continued pressure on Pokrovsk/Kostyantynivka. Potential for intensified ground activity on Sumy/Kharkiv axis, building on current engagements. Continued efforts to formalize foreign military-industrial cooperation and address domestic industrial strains.
  • UAF Decision Point: Continue to monitor force dispositions on the Sumy/Kharkiv axis for indicators of major offensive preparations. Adjust UAF reserve positioning and defensive lines accordingly. Continue to highlight Russian atrocities against civilians and the destruction of civilian infrastructure. Prepare for intensified information warfare surrounding perceived Western political shifts and manufactured global crises.
• Ongoing: Continuous monitoring of global geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, for any signs of direct Russian involvement or false flags. Continue to identify and exploit Russian internal vulnerabilities (e.g., migration issues, reliance on public donations). Develop countermeasures to potential increase in Russian drone production from foreign assistance. Maintain robust AD and counter-UAV capabilities.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Intelligence & Special Operations:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Prioritize all-source collection (HUMINT, SIGINT, OSINT, Overhead ISR) on RUF UAV launch sites and tactics targeting Odesa (Black Sea), Poltava (Sumy axis), and Kharkiv (Russian border). Focus on identifying new variants, swarm tactics, and effectiveness against UAF AD. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: ALL-SOURCE ISR for Odesa/Poltava/Kharkiv/Sumy; TECHINT analysis).
2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Reinforce a dedicated multi-agency task force for real-time monitoring and analysis of Russian information operations, with a specific focus on their attempts to fabricate global crises (e.g., Middle East), leverage US political dynamics, and falsely claim Western desire for normalization. Develop and disseminate rapid, evidence-based counter-narratives that expose these attempts to sow discord and distract. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, SIGINT, Cognitive Domain Analysis).
3. URGENT/HIGH: Conduct immediate and thorough battle damage assessment (BDA) for all recent drone strikes in Odesa and Kharkiv, identifying targets (military/critical infrastructure vs. civilian) and assessing overall impact. Document evidence of indiscriminate targeting for future war crimes proceedings. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: Overhead ISR, HUMINT, OSINT).
4. URGENT: Launch a dedicated all-source intelligence effort to verify or debunk all major Russian claims related to kinetic events in the Middle East, particularly the alleged assassination attempt on Iranian FM Arakchi and the purported damage to the Weizmann Institute. Disseminate verified findings to international partners immediately. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: ALL-SOURCE ISR for Middle East; OSINT, HUMINT, DIPLOMATIC LIAISON).
5. URGENT: Investigate the reasons behind temporary airspace restrictions at Kaluga airport and any potential correlation with Ukrainian long-range drone capabilities or internal security incidents. (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, SIGINT).

6.2. Air Defense & Force Protection:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain maximum AD alert posture across all major population centers and critical infrastructure, especially Odesa, Poltava, Sumy, and Kharkiv, due to continued UAV and likely follow-on KAB/ballistic threats. Prioritize interceptors against these munitions. Evaluate and adapt AD tactics to counter any new UAV variants or swarm attack methods observed.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Accelerate the deployment and integration of advanced AD systems and munitions in southern and northern/eastern sectors in response to ongoing UAV threats. Prioritize systems capable of countering multi-axis, persistent drone attacks, particularly those defending urban centers.
3. URGENT: Enhance force protection measures for civilian populations, including updated air raid warning systems and accessible shelters, particularly in Odesa and Kharkiv, where recent attacks indicate elevated risk and confirmed civilian infrastructure damage. Publicly document and disseminate information on civilian casualties and damage.

6.3. Ground Forces:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Maintain robust defensive postures on all reported axes in Donetsk (Kostyantynivka, Pokrovsk etc.), preparing to repel sustained combined-arms assaults. Ensure timely rotation of units from high-intensity zones.
2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Continue to develop and refine contingency plans for a potential major ground offensive on the Sumy/Kharkiv axis, leveraging intelligence from persistent "encounter battles" and air activity to pre-position reserves and identify key defensive lines. Aggressive localized reconnaissance remains vital.
3. URGENT: Continue and expand successful counter-UAV and counter-battery operations. Prioritize targeting of Russian artillery and reconnaissance drone launch sites.

6.4. Information Operations & Diplomatic:

1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an unprecedented, rapid, and globally coordinated IO and diplomatic campaign to expose and condemn Russia's extreme and dangerous information warfare tactics, particularly its cynical attempts to fabricate international crises and manipulate Western political discourse.
   • Explicitly debunk all false claims regarding Middle East events (e.g., Iranian FM assassination attempt, Weizmann Institute damage) with irrefutable evidence.
   • Reiterate Ukraine's consistent long-term strategic goals regardless of political cycles in partner nations: territorial integrity, sovereignty, and accountability.
   • Proactively address Russian narratives of Western disunity and desire for normalization, highlighting continued bipartisan support in critical partner nations and the enduring unity of purpose in supporting Ukraine.
2. URGENT: Proactively disseminate verified information on UAF defensive successes, particularly the ongoing AD efforts against drone attacks in Odesa and Kharkiv, and previous decisive repulsions of ground assaults. Highlight the resilience of the Ukrainian people and military.
3. URGENT: Engage directly with international media and diplomatic channels to highlight Russia's deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure in Odesa and Kharkiv, using the documented BDA to underscore Russian war crimes and the urgent need for enhanced AD.
4. ONGOING: Continue to highlight instances of Ukrainian resilience and internal accountability. Leverage Russian internal reports (e.g., migration, internal security issues) to show Russia's own vulnerabilities. Engage with international partners to address delays in aid and sanctions.

END OF REPORT.