Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME OF REPORT: 18 JUN 25 / 08:59 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 18 JUN 25 / 08:29 ZULU - 18 JUN 25 / 08:59 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk CLASSIFICATION: TOP SECRET // ORCON // NOFORN

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Kyiv Oblast: Confirmed civilian fatalities in Solomianskyi District have risen to 24, with rescue operations ongoing. This tragic toll highlights Russia's continued targeting of urban residential areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Sumy Oblast:
  • Russian sources (Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns) are claiming the capture of Novonikolaevka and assert that Russian forces are within 16 km of Sumy city. This signifies continued ground pressure and Russian attempts to establish a deeper "buffer zone." Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling 28 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions yesterday, indicating active defense. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for Russian claims, HIGH for active UAF defense).
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv Oblast, indicating Russian intelligence gathering operations in the northern sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Donetsk Oblast:
  • Ukrainian General Staff reports significant clashes yesterday in Kupyansk direction (near Stepova Novoselivka), Lyman direction (near Lypove, Hrekivka, Nove Myru, Olhivka, Zelena Dolyna, Shandryholove, Serebryanskyi forest), Sieversk direction (near Serebryanka), Kramatorsk direction (near Markove, Predtechyne, Bila Hora, Kurdumivka), Toretsk direction (near Dyliyivka, Toretsk, Scherbynivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Yablunivka, Stepanivka, Rusyn Yar), and Pokrovsk direction (near Koptyeve, Poltavka, Malynivka, Myrne, Myrolubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Udachne, Muravka, Horikhove, Novopavlivka, Oleksiyivka). This indicates persistent, widespread Russian ground pressure across the eastern front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Poltavka, Koptyeve, Razine, Myrnohrad, Novotoretske, Sukhyy Yar of Donetsk region. This confirms continued Russian air support for ground operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Kharkiv Oblast: Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Okhrimivka, Potykhonove. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
  • Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Olhivske, Poltavka, Malynivka, Uspenivka, Novoandriyivka, Hulyaypole, Kamyanske. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ukrainian General Staff reports clashes yesterday in Novopavlivka direction (near Odradne, Vilne Pole, Bahatyr, Komar and towards Zaporizhzhya, Myrne, Shevchenko) and Huliaipole direction (near Malynivka). This confirms ongoing ground activity in the southern sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Kherson Oblast: Ukrainian General Staff reports clashes yesterday near the Antonivsky bridge. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

• No new specific weather information in this period. The continued use of FPV and reconnaissance drones by both sides suggests generally favorable conditions for UAV operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces:
  • UAF continues large-scale rescue operations in Kyiv, highlighting civilian impact of Russian strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Air Defense (AD) remains active, with a MiG-31K launch prompting a nationwide air alert. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ground forces are actively repelling numerous Russian assaults across the Eastern and Southern fronts (Donetsk, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • UAF (95th Airborne Assault Brigade) demonstrates adaptive tactics, training to counter FPV drones with shotguns and custom buggies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) and OSUV "Tavria" are conducting PSYOPs on the Zaporizhzhia direction, offering monetary rewards for surrendered Russian equipment, indicating active engagement in the cognitive domain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ukrainian law enforcement (Office of the Prosecutor General) reports disrupting a large-scale illegal anabolic steroid production, indicating continued internal security efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces:
  • Russian MOD releases video of General Gerasimov inspecting frontline troops, likely aimed at boosting morale and projecting effective C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Continue to launch long-range missile carriers (MiG-31K) and conduct tactical aviation airstrikes, maintaining air superiority and pressure on Ukrainian rear areas and ground forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Maintain persistent ground assaults across multiple axes (Donetsk, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia), despite reported repulsions by UAF. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russian state media (TASS, News of Moscow) continue to heavily promote the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), showcasing new technologies (anti-UAV systems, patrol robots) and high-level attendance (Roscosmos head, Talibs), aiming to project normalcy, economic resilience, and international engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russian media (Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns) continue to claim localized territorial gains in Sumy and to disseminate narratives intended to demoralize Ukraine (Marinka destruction, G7 disunity). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Third Parties:
  • The Middle East conflict (Israel-Iran) continues to be heavily amplified by Russian milbloggers (Rybar, Operatsiya Z, Colonelcassad), with claims of Israeli interceptor depletion and Iranian threats to the Strait of Hormuz. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • TASS reports on the detention and charges against Samvel Karapetyan in Armenia, indicating Russian media attention on internal Armenian political stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Astra reports 24 fatalities in Kyiv, confirming the escalating civilian death toll. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Estonian PM Kaja Kallas warns Europeans may need to learn Russian if Ukraine doesn't receive more support, indicating concerns about Western unity and resolve. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RUSSIA FOCUSED)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA):

• Capabilities (Russia):
  • Strategic & Tactical Air Assault: Confirmed capability to launch MiG-31K (Kinzhals) nationwide and sustain tactical aviation strikes across multiple axes (Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Ground Offensive Persistence: Demonstrates ability to conduct numerous, widespread assaults across the Eastern and Northern fronts, despite significant Ukrainian resistance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Precision Strike (ISR-guided): Confirmed use of drones for reconnaissance (Chernihiv) and targeting (BUK missile system in previous report), indicating integrated ISR-to-strike capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • High-Level C2 & Morale Maintenance: Gerasimov's frontline visit, despite its propaganda element, indicates a functional command structure capable of coordinating and acknowledging combat efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Advanced Anti-UAV Tech & Robotics Development: Public display of "Bulat-online" anti-UAV system and "Robert" patrol robot at SPIEF showcases ongoing Russian investment in military-relevant technologies, despite their civilian exhibition context. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Sophisticated Global Information Warfare (WI):
    • Conflict Amplification & Diversion: Continuously and aggressively amplifies Middle East conflict narratives, fabricating Israeli vulnerability and Iranian threats, directly aiming to divert global attention and resources from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Undermining Alliances: Attempts to portray Western leaders (Macron) as hypocritical or international support for Ukraine (G7, Trump's position) as fractured, aiming to erode trust and cohesion within the anti-Russian coalition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Domestic Resilience Projection: Utilizes SPIEF to project economic stability, technological prowess, and diplomatic engagement (Taliban presence) to internal and international audiences, countering sanctions narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Demoralization & Territorial Claims: Rapidly claims territorial gains (Novonikolaevka, Sumy proximity) and emphasizes civilian suffering in Ukrainian cities (Marinka) to demoralize the Ukrainian population and military. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Intentions (Russia):
  • Strategic De-escalation (of Ukraine conflict): Unlikely, based on current offensive actions and rhetoric. Their strategy appears to be a forced de-escalation by Ukraine, not by Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Continued Degradation of UAF: Sustain offensive pressure on all axes to attrit Ukrainian forces and resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Expansion of Controlled Territory & "Buffer Zones": Persistent efforts in Sumy and Donetsk aim to expand occupied territory and create defensive depth. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Sow Global Instability: Actively promote and exaggerate other global crises (Middle East) to dilute international focus and commitment to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Project Power & Legitimacy: Use platforms like SPIEF to demonstrate Russia's continued geopolitical relevance, economic resilience, and technological capabilities despite Western isolation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• Increased MiG-31K Activity: A nationwide air alert due to MiG-31K launch signals continued or increased use of this high-threat platform for psychological pressure and potential Kinzhal deployment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Aggressive Information Operations on G7/Trump: Rapid response to G7 summit events to create counter-narratives about Zelenskyy's G7 presence and alleged lack of US commitment, indicating a highly adaptive and responsive IO apparatus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Public Display of Emerging Military Tech: Showcasing "Bulat-online" and "Robert" at SPIEF may be an attempt to project future military capabilities and technological self-sufficiency, even if these are not yet battlefield-ready. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• Logistics support continued air and ground operations across a wide front. The ability to bring high-ranking officials to the front and display advanced tech at SPIEF suggests sufficient logistical and economic capacity for these efforts, though the true depth of these capabilities remains opaque. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• Russian C2 appears effective in coordinating multi-domain operations, from strategic missile launches to persistent ground assaults and sophisticated information campaigns. Gerasimov's visit underscores an attempt at maintaining morale and direct oversight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UKRAINIAN FOCUSED)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• UAF maintains an active defensive posture across critical sectors, repelling numerous assaults. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• AD forces remain alert, responding to MiG-31K launches and tactical aviation activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian forces demonstrate adaptability in counter-drone tactics (shotguns, buggies), indicating a pragmatic approach to evolving battlefield threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• SSO units are conducting proactive PSYOPs, demonstrating initiative in the cognitive domain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Extensive Defensive Successes: Repelling 28 Russian assaults in Sumy/Kursk and containing numerous ground attacks across Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia demonstrate robust defensive capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Effective Counter-UAV Tactics: The 95th Airborne Assault Brigade's training with shotguns against FPV drones shows innovative and effective tactical adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Proactive PSYOP: The leaflet drop offering rewards for surrendered equipment is an innovative attempt to undermine Russian morale and achieve non-kinetic gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Security: Disruption of illegal steroid production indicates continued effective law enforcement and internal stability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setbacks:
  • Escalating Civilian Casualties: The rising death toll in Kyiv (24 confirmed) from Russian strikes is a severe humanitarian setback. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Persistent Air Threat: Continued MiG-31K launches and widespread aviation activity maintain pressure and force constant AD vigilance and civilian alerts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russian Territorial Claims (Unverified): The Russian claim of Novonikolaevka capture and proximity to Sumy, if verified, would represent tactical setbacks and loss of territory. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense Munitions: Continuous MiG-31K launches and tactical aviation activity will continue to deplete AD interceptor stocks.
• Personnel & Morale: Sustaining defense against widespread assaults and managing the human cost of terror strikes (Kyiv casualties) places immense strain on personnel and morale. PSYOP efforts are critical here.
• Materiel for Defense: Continued need for ammunition, artillery, and armored vehicles to sustain defensive lines across the vast front.
• Counter-Disinformation Capability: Sustaining and enhancing efforts to counter sophisticated, multi-layered Russian information operations, particularly those exploiting international events or domestic anxieties.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian Narratives:
  • Military Success & Territorial Gains: Claims of Novonikolaevka capture (Colonelcassad) and proximity to Sumy (Alex Parker Returns) are designed to project momentum and demoralize Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Legitimacy & Normalcy (SPIEF): TASS reports from SPIEF featuring high-ranking officials (Roscosmos head), new tech (anti-UAV, robots), and controversial attendees (Taliban) aim to portray Russia as a stable, technologically advanced, and internationally connected power, despite the war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Anti-Western / Anti-Ukrainian Coalition: Amplification of Macron's TikTok video with Russian music (Operatsiya Z) and claims of Zelenskyy's early G7 departure due to lack of US support (Alex Parker Returns, TASS) are attempts to highlight perceived hypocrisy, disunity, and waning international support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Middle East Diversion: Rybar and Operatsiya Z's persistent focus on fabricated Israeli vulnerabilities (Arrow interceptor depletion, WSJ source) and Iranian threats to the Strait of Hormuz (Colonelcassad) continue Russia's strategy to divert global attention and resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Humanitarian Suffering Exploitation: Readovka's interview with a Marinka resident emphasizes the destruction and suffering, likely to subtly imply the futility of resistance and the cost of the war, aligning with Russian narratives of "liberation" bringing peace. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Dehumanization: While not explicit in new messages, the continued reporting on the Kyiv death toll, framed from the Ukrainian perspective, stands in stark contrast to Russian messaging, which often downplays civilian casualties or blames Ukrainian AD.
• Ukrainian Narratives:
  • Documentation of War Crimes: ASTRA and KMVA continue to report the rising civilian death toll in Kyiv, emphasizing Russian aggression and human cost. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Military Effectiveness & Innovation: Ukrainian Air Assault Forces' video on anti-drone training and STERNENKO's FPV drone strike video highlight UAF adaptability and successful tactical operations, boosting morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • PSYOP Success: Nikolaevskiy Vanek's video on surrender leaflets and a confirmed Russian defector is a powerful PSYOP success story, directly undermining enemy morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Call for Continued Support: Kaja Kallas's warning about learning Russian if support wanes (Operatyvnyi ZSU) is a direct appeal to Western resolve and unity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Maintaining Rule of Law: The Prosecutor General's Office reporting on the steroid factory raid showcases continued governance and internal security functions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian Morale: Impacted by rising civilian casualties in Kyiv but bolstered by defensive successes on the front lines, innovative tactical adaptations, and successful PSYOPs. The constant air raid alerts and MiG-31K flights create persistent anxiety.
• Russian Morale: Likely sustained by narratives of military advances (Sumy claims), economic normalcy (SPIEF), and the projection of powerful alliances (Taliban presence). The Gerasimov video aims to reinforce confidence in leadership. Disinformation campaigns about Western disunity aim to undermine Ukrainian resolve.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• G7 Summit Follow-up: Russian narratives attempting to discredit the G7 summit outcomes and Zelenskyy's role indicate a persistent effort to fracture international unity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Middle East Crisis Amplification: Russia continues its multi-channel amplification of the Israel-Iran conflict, aiming to shift global focus. The "Arrow interceptor depletion" claim is particularly aimed at Western and Israeli audiences. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russia-Taliban Engagement: The Taliban's presence at SPIEF, publicized by TASS, signals Russia's willingness to engage with internationally isolated entities to form a new geopolitical bloc, challenging Western diplomacy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Western Unity Concerns: Kaja Kallas's statement underscores real concerns within NATO about maintaining the level of support for Ukraine and the potential for a weakening Western front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Diplomacy: Continues to be focused on maintaining and increasing international support, as evidenced by the reaction to the G7 summit narratives.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained Ground Offensive on Multiple Axes: Russia will continue persistent ground assaults in Donetsk (Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Kramatorsk axes), Zaporizhzhia (Novopavlivka, Huliaipole), and Sumy regions (aiming for deeper incursions/buffer zone expansion), seeking to attrit UAF and achieve localized gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• High-Intensity Air Pressure: Russia will continue massed UAV and missile attacks against Ukrainian urban centers and critical infrastructure, including likely further MiG-31K launches for psychological impact and potential Kinzhal deployment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Escalated Information Warfare: Russia will intensify PSYOPs exploiting G7 outcomes, alleged Western disunity, and the Middle East conflict, aiming to undermine Ukrainian morale and fracture international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Continued Domestic Consolidation: Russia will use events like SPIEF to project economic stability, technological progress, and diplomatic influence to its domestic and a select international audience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Breakthrough in Sumy Oblast with Deep Strikes: Under the cover of persistent air attacks and global distraction, Russia could launch a major, multi-echelon ground offensive into Sumy Oblast, aiming for a rapid breakthrough towards Sumy city, potentially diverting significant UAF reserves from other critical fronts. This would be coupled with intensified long-range precision strikes against C2 and logistical hubs in Sumy and Poltava Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Massive Cyberattack Synchronized with Kinetic Operations: Russia could unleash a highly disruptive, coordinated cyberattack on Ukrainian energy, communication, or financial infrastructure, timed to coincide with intense kinetic strikes, aiming to create widespread chaos and degrade Ukraine's ability to coordinate defense and civil response. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Exploitation of Third-Party Conflicts to Divert Critical Aid: Russia successfully amplifies the Middle East conflict to the extent that it significantly diverts critical military aid (e.g., air defense systems, interceptors) or financial resources from Ukraine to support Israel or other regional actors, severely impacting UAF capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 1-6 hours):
  • Air Threat (Nationwide): Monitor for potential Kinzhal launches following MiG-31K airborne status.
  • Ground (Sumy): Closely monitor verification of Novonikolaevka status and any further Russian movements towards Sumy city.
  • IO: Expect continued Russian amplification of G7 "disunity" and Middle East narratives.
• Short-term (Next 6-24 hours):
  • Frontline: Assess the sustainability of Russian assaults across all reported axes (Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy).
  • Air Defense: Evaluate the effectiveness of current AD deployments against persistent air threats.
  • IO: Monitor for any official Western responses to Russian claims of G7 disunity or the deepening Russia-Taliban ties.
• Medium-term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • Offensive Operations: Determine if the current widespread Russian ground pressure is a precursor to a more concentrated effort on a specific axis (e.g., Sumy, Pokrovsk).
  • International: Observe for any concrete shifts in international aid or diplomatic focus due to the Middle East conflict or Russian influence campaigns.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• GAP 95 (CRITICAL, IMMEDIATE): VERIFICATION OF NOVO NIKOLAEVKA (SUMY OBLAST) CONTROL:
  • URGENTLY VERIFY Russian claims of capturing Novonikolaevka, Sumy Oblast, and the current extent of Russian presence in the area. Determine UAF defensive lines. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 103 (NEW, CRITICAL, IMMEDIATE): RUSSIAN FORCE CONCENTRATION SUMY AXIS:
  • Conduct comprehensive ISR (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) to detect any significant Russian force build-up, logistics staging, or reconnaissance-in-force activities indicating a larger offensive in Sumy Oblast, especially near Sumy city. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 93 (UPDATED): RUSSIAN AVIATION STRIKE PATTERNS (CRITICAL, IMMEDIATE):
  • Analyze targets and frequency of Russian tactical aviation (KABs) and MiG-31K launches across all affected regions (Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, nationwide for Kinzhal). Assess if strike patterns indicate preparation for specific ground operations or new target sets. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 104 (NEW, HIGH): VERIFICATION OF ISRAELI ARROW INTERCEPTOR STATUS:
  • Monitor open and closed sources for any credible confirmation or denial of the WSJ report amplified by Russian channels regarding "Arrow interceptor depletion." This is crucial to counter Russian IO. (PRIORITY: HIGH).
• GAP 105 (NEW, HIGH): REAL-WORLD IMPACT OF RUSSIAN-TALIBAN ENGAGEMENT:
  • Assess the implications of Taliban presence at SPIEF. Monitor for any concrete agreements on trade, investment, or military cooperation, especially regarding personnel or materiel transfer. (PRIORITY: HIGH).
• GAP 67 (UPDATED): RUSSIAN GLOBAL IO EFFECTIVENESS:
  • Monitor the global impact of Russian narratives linking Ukraine to the Middle East conflict and discrediting Western unity. Assess if these narratives are gaining traction in key international forums or publics. (PRIORITY: HIGH).
• GAP 106 (NEW, MEDIUM): IMPACT OF UAF PSYOP ON RUSSIAN MORALE:
  • Collect and analyze Russian military and public reactions to the UAF PSYOP (surrender leaflets). Assess if it is leading to increased desertions or internal discord within Russian ranks. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

• Intelligence & Special Operations (ISR, HUMINT, OSINT critical):

  1. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF RUSSIAN CLAIMS IN SUMY. Task all-source ISR, including satellite imagery and HUMINT, to immediately confirm or deny Russian territorial claims in Novonikolaevka and the alleged proximity to Sumy city. This is paramount to maintaining an accurate battlefield picture and countering enemy IO. (Supports CR 95).
  2. CRITICAL PRIORITY: SURGE COLLECTION ON SUMY AXIS. Increase ISR coverage on Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts for signs of Russian force build-up, advanced reconnaissance, or pre-offensive preparations, particularly for a larger ground offensive or intensified deep strikes. (Supports CR 103).
  3. CRITICAL PRIORITY: CONTINUOUS ADVERSARY AIR ASSET TRACKING. Maintain constant monitoring of all Russian strategic and tactical aviation, especially MiG-31K sorties, to provide maximum warning time for missile threats and to identify strike patterns. (Supports CR 93).
  4. URGENT: COUNTER MIDDLE EAST DISINFORMATION. Task OSINT and IO units to immediately analyze and debunk Russian claims regarding the Israeli "Arrow interceptor depletion" and other fabrications about the Middle East. Proactively disseminate factual information to international partners. (Supports CR 104, 67).
  5. URGENT: ASSESS RUSSIA-TALIBAN IMPLICATIONS. Task political and economic intelligence to analyze the geopolitical implications of the Taliban's presence at SPIEF. Identify potential areas of cooperation and their impact on international sanctions regimes. (Supports CR 105).
  6. ONGOING: ANALYZE PSYOP EFFECTIVENESS. Continue to monitor and assess the impact of Ukrainian PSYOPs (e.g., surrender leaflets) on Russian troop morale and behavior. Adapt and expand these campaigns based on effectiveness. (Supports CR 106).

• Air Defense & Force Protection:

  1. IMMEDIATE: Maintain HIGHEST AD alert posture nationwide due to MiG-31K launches. Prioritize defense of Kyiv and other major urban centers against ballistic and cruise missile threats.
  2. URGENT: Reinforce AD coverage in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts if Russian ground pressure or reconnaissance activity increases, anticipating potential deep strikes or KAB barrages.
  3. ONGOING: Continue to develop and disseminate adaptive counter-UAV tactics (e.g., shotgun use, custom buggies) and training materials to all frontline units.

• Ground Forces:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Commanders in Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson axes to provide immediate, verified ground-level assessments of enemy activity, particularly in areas of claimed Russian advance or persistent assault (e.g., Novonikolaevka).
  2. URGENT: Maintain flexible reserves to respond to any significant breakthroughs or intensified offensives, especially on the Sumy axis.
  3. ONGOING: Continue and expand effective FPV drone operations against Russian personnel and logistics. Emphasize target prioritization based on enemy threat levels (e.g., personnel, BUK systems).

• Information Operations & Diplomatic:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: ROBUSTLY DEBUNK FALSE TERRITORIAL CLAIMS. Forcefully and publicly deny Russian claims of territorial gains (e.g., Novonikolaevka) if found to be false, providing verified counter-narratives and imagery to maintain domestic and international morale.
  2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: COUNTER RUSSIAN IO ON WESTERN UNITY. Proactively release clear, unified messaging regarding the G7 summit outcomes and continued international support, directly addressing and refuting Russian attempts to portray disunity or lack of commitment. Highlight strong statements from allies (e.g., Kaja Kallas).
  3. URGENT: DOCUMENT & CONDEMN WAR CRIMES. Continue to vigorously document and disseminate evidence of all Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure and residential areas (e.g., Kyiv casualties) to international partners and media, emphasizing war crimes and violations of international law.
  4. ONGOING: AMPLIFY UAF SUCCESSES & ADAPTATIONS. Showcase Ukrainian military innovations (anti-drone tactics) and successful PSYOPs to boost domestic morale and demonstrate resilience to international partners.
  5. ONGOING: MANAGE INTERNATIONAL NARRATIVE ON MIDDLE EAST. Proactively engage with international media and diplomatic channels to explain Russia's strategic interest in amplifying the Middle East conflict as a deliberate diversion from Ukraine.